Realistic Mafia - Game Over

[Singing Librarian]

OK, no clues to go on from night thus far.

vote: muffinhead

for having a deeply disturbing avatar, using hateful dice voting and then changing his vote claiming his new target told him to, even though he does appear to have been joking.

[Singing Librarian]

I don't get the Superfly thing, but I certainly hope he/she/it logs on soon and posts something, which would help a lot.

Other than that, very little signal seems to have got through. Really, who cares whether someone signs their posts?

[Singing Librarian]

Remeber that we have 3 weeks, so we can lynch as much as possible, the more lynching done the less lynches the mafia get. So based on that i believe we should bumrush as much as possible but only if we have an idea someone is scum and if they arnt it wont be a big loss.

That only works if they're good lynches. It would be a complete disaster if we were to do a series of quicklynches and they were all townies. One mistake might not be a huge loss, but several mistakes would seriously hurt us and make a scum victory much more likely.

Basically, I think this is a horrible idea. I'm not sure whether it's just a bad idea with good intentions, or a scum idea hoping to lead town astray, but it makes me feel as though my vote is in the right place.

[Singing Librarian]

I don't get the suspicion of Surye here. A desire for information to base a decision to lynch - or not to lynch - on is more than reasonable. We are waiting for that information, it's true, but waiting for information is definitely better for town than acting without information. So it seems we're all waiting for Superfly to log in and for information to flow. Hopefully, those things will happen at the same time as each other.

[Singing Librarian]

That reversal on the part of Surye is horrible.

unvote
vote: Surye

Not overly impressed with the basis for Superfly's wagon, but I have to agree that reactions to it were interesting, particularly Surye's, which I would sum up as this:

- I won't join the wagon unless we have more information
- We have no information, but Superfly did take ages to respons
- OK, I'll vote for Superfly, in contradiction to what I originally said.

It's illogical, a big reach and generally suspicious.

[Singing Librarian]

Both, sorry. Forgot to bold.

unvote
vote: Surye

[Singing Librarian]

Unvote

I can't believe how many pages of posts happened overnight!

Surye's claim seems to be accurate, and BM's makes sense (though I am rather aghast at the idea of using a vig kill on night 0, unless of course one absolutely has to).

Cyberbob is looking the most suspicious from the mayoral information, but an aggressive nature does not necessarily equal scum, it just equals aggression, and I'm not willing to vote based on that alone.

Reading through all the postings was most exciting, but hasn't made anyone new stand out to me as likely scum. It is nice to have a bunch of people semi-confirmed, though, narrowing down the list of people to scrutinise, at least for now.

For what it's worth, as we seem to be in a phase of discussing night actions, I saw and heard nothing, having taken a run around the block.

[Singing Librarian]

Dasquian, you're right, sorry. Please, nobody follow my example...

[Singing Librarian]

Whoa...

*tries to get his head round what's going on*

I think Surye going to investigate CB's house is an excellent idea, but I think only one person should accompany him (though said person should not be nominated by him, just in case our mayor is corrupt, which I hope isn't true). Too many people looking around a small space actually makes looking harder.

ABR's plan seems doomed to end horribly. Just gut instinct, but there really is so much that could go wrong there. I also don't like the idea of that firepower being in the hands of someone who just decided they should have it.

[Singing Librarian]

Yep, people have just gone and done it from the look of the last modposting.

I really hate the idea that most of the firepower in the town is now arbitrarily in the hands of ABR (who could quite easily be scum) simply because he decided to go and grab it. A trigger-happy vig could be bad enough for the town, but someone who essentially decides to become a vig, who has an unknown alignment? Not good, not good at all.

I await the return of the searchers with interest.

[Singing Librarian]

We wait again? Oh well.

*settles down on a comfortable chair*

[Singing Librarian]

Oh my!

I try to get caught up, reading page upon page of posts, and trying to decide who out of Primate or BM is telling the truth (or indeed if either is). I lean towards suspecting BM, and then that happens and I pause. I end up trapped in that horrible position of thinking "if he was scum, surely he wouldn't carry out such an obvious day kill". And then I think "but maybe that's what he'd want me to think" and I realise I'm in WIFOM territory, which leads me to

vote: Battle Mage

[Singing Librarian]

Vote: End Day

Why? Well, as the mayor and others have said, we have no real idea about the alignments of Cyberbob or BattleMage and absolutely no reason to trust BM's twilight post where he claims to have been in a mafia with CB. Until we get those results, it will be very hard to make any sense of others' reactions to the bandwagons etc. Learning who they both were, plus the activities of the night, should put us in a much stronger position by the morning.

I don't want to go to the bunker - I have a bad feeling about it. Too much disaster potential for my liking.

[Singing Librarian]

Sensfan and Singing Librarian, speak up please and defend your votes and not posting. Comment on the game.

What do I think about the state of things at the moment?

BM clearly was scum of one flavour or another, but I'm not sure about CyberBob. The case against him seemed convincing, but BM's pre-lynch post makes me doubt very much that he was in the same group as BM, if he was ever scum at all. Scum admitting their partners upon death is highly unlikely, other than from new players who are disillusioned with the game, I'd have thought. BM strikes me as a likely serial killer, if we had one, but membership of a mafia group is also possible (just not, I'd wager, CB's group if he turns out to be scum as well).

ABR loaded up with guns worries me. I believe he is town, but as I mentioned once before, the idea of anyone just arbitrarily arming themselves is worrying. The fact that he gave some of the guns to a couple of other players is good, particularly since one of said players is the mayor. The reason I don't want to go to the bunker is not because I don't believe ABR is town, it's because I see it as a potential target or potential place of misunderstandings leading to town cross-kills.

The info on GhostWriter and NabakovNabakov neither confirms them as town nor confirms them as scum. They were together, but could just as easily be scum sitting around while another member of the team carries out the kill, town passing time, or one of each, with scum forming a pseudo-partnership with a townie. Until we know more, we cannot glean anything from that piece of intelligence.

I voted to end day because I have a feeling that the information we could glean from the end of the day would be very helpful going forward from here. Discussion appeared to be going nowhere, partly due to myself and people who post even less frequently not contributing, but not entirely so, I feel.

I am not feeling any particular scum vibes from anyone living at present. There are a few people that I'm pretty darn sure are town, but I don't think that listing them is likely to be helpful for anyone other than for scum looking for a list of safe, non-suspicious people to kill.

[Singing Librarian]

The circumstances of Skitzer's death seem very strange - how did his body get from the house to the street? I think we need an answer to that.

[Singing Librarian]

OK, so even though Khelvaster stated that he wasn't sure about his results, that he hadn't reported anything to the mayor and that he was happy to discuss his result, ABR went and daykilled him anyway, with no warning and no discussion? I'm not sure whether ABR's comment that Khelvaster left his cop ID at his house is a joke or not - I suspect it is, but if it isn't, then that makes things even worse.

Vote: ABR

I don't think the daykilling solution to lack of role reveals is a great idea, to be honest.

And I think the guns are safest with Surye for now - I don't think Khelv's partner should reveal him/herself.

[Singing Librarian]

Oh...bother. Stupid tags.

Vote: ABR

[Singing Librarian]

This game really makes me go 'huh?' more often than I'd like. ABR self-hammered? If he was scum, then that must have been a tactic to prevent us finding out his allegiance (fearing a vig) until day ends. If he was town, then... I'm sorry, other than petulance I can think of no reason for town to do that.

Information about what happened between him and Khelvaster last night would be greatly helpful - there must have been witnesses?

[Singing Librarian]

My guess is you "investigated" him last night, and found a rival, and was just waiting for a moment to strike, and look half justified, and look very town.

Surye, why on Earth would ANYONE investigate Dasquian???

He looked very, very pro-town. Even if I were corrupt, why would I investigate Dasquian?

Indeed - I was so incredibly sure he was town. I even visited his house last night, thinking that he would be a safe bet as a safe person to be with at night. Thankfully, he was out!

More interestingly, has Surye simply forgotten asking DGB to investigate Skitzer, or is DGB lying about that?

[Singing Librarian]

Plus we would rather lynch non-DGB scum then DGB scum as DGB scum is presumably the last member of her group if she is scum as she shot Dasq, while the other scum, while likely the last member of their group due to ABR's death, is still possibly paired, and leaving both groups alive allows for cross kills.

I think this is deeply flawed logic. In a game of this size, a cross kill seems extremely unlikely. Unless 'member of scum group A' is absolutely certain that a player is 'member of scum group B', then they are much more likely to hit another member of the town rather than blindly hit upon a member of the other scum group. Eliminating a group serves the town by reducing the potential number of deaths.

I'm not convinced that DGB is scum, though, and agree that lynching any more of our cops at this point is a bad idea.

[Singing Librarian]

At present, speculation about the alignment of the cops and mayor is likely to get us nowhere. I suppose the cops could investigate each other and Surye, but that would be a waste of a night's worth of investigations, in my opinion, particularly as the outed cops probably don't have long to live night-wise.

So, yes, investigation should turn to those of us not confirmed or claimed in any way - Armlx is right about that. However, the most suspicious thing I can see from any of this group is Awesome Pants' insistence on pushing his setup speculation in post 1073. I don't know why it rings mild alarm bells, but it does - perhaps because I don't really understand what he's getting at, so really can't see why he has reminded Surye about his post in both of the posts he's made since.

[Singing Librarian]

I have felt rather overwhelmed by the size and speed of this game much of the time (for a while, it seemed like every time I dared to sleep, I'd wake up, log on and a fresh corpse or two had been created). It's much easier to follow now, but of course there's less to follow.

Panzerjager definitely merits attention as it seems the only content he's posted for quite some time was connected with the BM/Primate/Sarcastro affair that he was privy to. He gives the impression that being present, yet not a killer, at that event, proves him to be town, but that seems like a rather extreme leap of logic to make. Just because he didn't happen to kill Sarcastro doesn't mean that he is therefore town. Note how he only claims to have proved his towniness to Primate *after* Primate was dead and could not disagree with him.

[Singing Librarian]

Flashbangs I'm on the fence about - I don't think their use is likely to harm town, though.

I'm not sold on the need to lynch Hjalti, hence my lack of a vote at the moment since there are no strong leads to follow as far as I can see.

[Singing Librarian]

Indeed. And it had been over a dozen of his posts since he last even mentioned Surye, so it's not even as though it's a vote building on earlier arguments.

[Singing Librarian]

I agree that a plain townie carring out a daykill is likely to be a bad idea - if the target is scum, then we'd be likely to lose the townie in the process, at best, since scum would likely be perfectly able to defend themselves against a lone attack.

DGB's tied to a chair, yes? So that's one less person who could carry it out.

[Singing Librarian]

I'm not sure that we can place any faith at all in the reports the mayor has been getting from the cops - the cop sending in the report may be innocent, but it seems to be someone tampering with the paperwork, who is probably one of the cops known to Surye. There doesn't even appear to be a pattern to which investigations end up returning true reports to the mayor (if you look at AwesomePants' results, for example).

[Singing Librarian]

The problem with Awesome's results is that mafiate Celebloki came up as innocent (though in the weaker-seeming 'according to home' semse), which we know not to be true, though the read on Cyberbob was accurate.

Last night I used my ???? action to do some digging into the on-line archives of the local newspapers, which suggested that the mafia, when they've infiltrated the police department in the past, have affected the way that information is distributed. This concept seems slightly different to what was reported in this morning's paper, and may be worth bearing in mind.

[Singing Librarian]

I am a citizen, and have no exciting powers beyond my vote and the ???? action.

Night 0 nothing of note happened to me. Night 1 I baked a cake, took it to Dasquian (as he struck me as 100% town) to strike up a friendship, but thankfully didn't find him home. Night 2, I did the internet research I've previously mentioned. Which, by the way, clearly indicated that the syndicates were the ones behind any changes to information distribution in the police department - i.e., not a lone individual.

[Singing Librarian]

Someone mentioned wanting to wait to hear from me, but I have already claimed and explained my night actions in my last post (though the SensFan stuff distracted at the time).

The only thing that I can add since that point is that I overheard what SensFan whispered to Natirasha, but I won't repeat what I heard - it's not something we want scum to hear.

Since it seems that the way forward has been decided and I am essentially dead now, I think SensFan's idea (put NoLynch at L-2) is a good one. Obviously, there's no point in me voting for it, though.

[Singing Librarian]

The only thing that I can add since that point is that I overheard what SensFan whispered to Natirasha, but I won't repeat what I heard - it's not something we want scum to hear.

Crap.

Nat, I'll leave it up to you. You know how to call it on or off.

I thought it was wise to let you know that it had been overheard. Someone else may well have overheard what armlx whispered, but I only caught the SensFan-Nat whisper.

[Singing Librarian]

Oops, simultaneous post with armlx there.

[Singing Librarian]

Yes, that is what I overheard.

I'd agree with armlx's scumlist, and can understand why I'm on it. I'd put most to least likely as Sykedoc, Crub, GhostWriter based on their actions during the game so far.

Since I think Sykedoc is at L-2 and we need to avoid self-hammering if he is scum, I shall

Vote: No Lynch

to set that plan in motion. Will happily unvote if few people decide it's a bad plan to follow.

[Singing Librarian]

I was hiding in the bathroom, that's why. I thought it was the most sensible thing to do, since everyone was quite clear about not welcoming visitors, and since there's still a killer or killers out there. I wasn't really bothered by the possibility of them shooting or stabbing my pillows.

I think choosing one of the cops, the closest we have to 100% confirmed townies, for mayor, is probably our best option.

In terms of set-up, the most likely seems a 2-man scumgroup, or 1 each left of the existing teams, with one team failing to make a kill somehow.

[Singing Librarian]

Anyways, did you get anything from his house, SF?

Mainly that he went through a large ordeal to make it look like someone was sleeping in his bed, when in fact he was no where to be found in his house.

And yet you didn't check the bathroom? It doesn't seem like a very thorough search to me. Since the newspaper mentions that I left the house minutes after you, there is proof that I was indeed there.

Definitely agree we're not at lylo.

[Singing Librarian]

1. Why did you leave your house after Sensfan left?
2. Why were you late to town square? Dropping off a dead Suyre's body, perhaps?
2a. Why were you late to town square, Sensfan?
3. This is what I think what went down last night.

Suyre was still tied up in town square when we left. After "hiding in the bathroom" all night, Sensfan left and he had a chance to leave his house. At this time, he quickly went and killed Suyre. If you notice, it distinctly says in the day post that "Mayor killed in town square". Suyre would have been still tied up. Afterwards, you leave to erase the evidence/put up your gun and returned to town square. As such, you were late. Additionally, I think the reason Sensfan didn't find you was because you were speaking with your scum partner all night...at their house. However, this brings the question:

why were you seen leaving your house after Sensfan left?

Anyways,

Kill: Singing Librarian

Natirasha, Surye killing didn't work out very well yesterday due to him being the mayor. Sigh. If you've really sent in a killing action, you've seriously hurt the town.

I was seen leaving my house after SensFan left because I waited until he had gone to leave. Because SensFan was late, I was late as well.

I'm trying to think if there's anything else useful I can add before I die (assuming, of course, that Natirasha really has attempted to kill me). I didn't see SensFan attempt to kill 'me', so i certainly believe he was investigating rather than killing (a killer would probably have attacked the 'me' and realised their mistake afterwards).

I would hug the Mayor, but under the circumstances, I shall refrain.

[Singing Librarian]

It does look very much like we should ignore the investigation results, since the inaccurate ones seem to be distributed fairly randomly. Or at least, I don't see a pattern.

[Singing Librarian]

Seriously. Taking the post Surye made of results received nights 1-3.

AwesomePants - accurate night one, not on night two, so who knows about Crub on night 3
Dahill1 - accurate night one, then died
Natirasha - none confirmed accurate or not so far
Khelvaster - sent no reports in
SensFan - initially sent none in, inaccurate on Awesome Pants, so who knows on Crub

We cannot begin to guess at sanities from this, but we do know that some investigations returned inaccurate results, even from cops who had previously returned accurate results.

[Singing Librarian]

You'll be carrying on killing then.

[Singing Librarian]

Bravo, Sens and Nat.

And thanks, Kaleidoscope for an insane amount of work!