Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[vollkan]

Adel was feeling good with herself as she walked home from the meeting. She had helped bring down a mafia member, after all. As she reached her home, she was puzzled by the fact that her front door was open. Cautiously, she stepped inside - fearing the worst.

As she stood frozen in the doorway, a shot rang out from the street. A splatter of blood burst from Adel's head as she crumpled to the ground.

She lay there all evening, to be found by the town the following morning.

They found handcuffs in her pocket, but since this was Adel they decided that they probably weren't there for law enforcement. She was just a an ordinary townie.

Adel,

Townie

, was shot Night 2.

A new day begins.

D3 commences

Deadline for D3:

Tuesday April 22, 11:11AM GMT+10

With 7 alive, its 4 to lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

This is flawed logic, which could actually be bordering on a slip from you.

Why are you ignoring the possibility that the Guardian1 kill was performed by the mafia

and that Guardian2 is mafia?

Thanks for raising this issue and hammering in the same post. I actually addressed this in my post, then realized the explanation didn't add anything but wordiness and deleted it. If Guardian1 was the mafia kill, then someone claiming the pickemgenius kill would have logically meant that Guardian1 was the mafia kill, which would have screwed Guardian2 just as much as if Guardian1 wasn't the mafia kill and someone else claimed it.

Since it turns out that Guardian2

was

mafia, that means that the second killer decided not to claim their kill (whichever one it was), which raises the chance that we do have an SK.

I'll do a targeted reread on Guardian to see if there's anything interesting about his play...

[Xylthixlm]

... and before you say, yes that does read horribly.

That's why I deleted it the first time.

[Incognito]

In my eyes since ChaosOmega/Guardian^2 came up mafia, I'm inclined to believe that Patrick and Erg0 are town. They led the charge against ChaosOmega near the end of Day 1 when two competing wagons on townies existed (Guardian's wagon and opie's wagon). Also the fact that both Erg0 and Patrick, like me, both contemplated the possibility of Guardian being mafia attempting to draw a counterclaim from a possible vig is more evidence to me that they are probably town. The same D1 reasoning probably extends to Matt_S also since he essentially cross-posted with Erg0 while voting against ChaosOmega. My top two suspicions are still firmly planted on Oman and Xylthixlm so I'll go with this:

Vote: Oman

[Patrick]

Thanks for raising this issue and hammering in the same post. I actually addressed this in my post, then realized the explanation didn't add anything but wordiness and deleted it. If Guardian1 was the mafia kill, then someone claiming the pickemgenius kill would have logically meant that Guardian1 was the mafia kill, which would have screwed Guardian2 just as much as if Guardian1 wasn't the mafia kill and someone else claimed it.

I decided to hammer because I felt like the day had gone on long enough, and I was mainly putting out my thoughts in case I was killed. I didn't particularly feel like giving Adel another chance to change her mind and unvote, particularly considering how difficult it seemed to be getting a claimed scum lynched.

Since it turns out that Guardian2 was mafia, that means that the second killer decided not to claim their kill (whichever one it was), which raises the chance that we do have an SK.

Not particularly. I think any vig that had information suggesting Guardian was lying would only have come forward if absolutely necessary to secure a lynch.

My top suspects remain the same, but no vote just yet.

[Patrick]

If Guardian1 was the mafia kill, then someone claiming the pickemgenius kill would have logically meant that Guardian1 was the mafia kill, which would have screwed Guardian2 just as much as if Guardian1 wasn't the mafia kill and someone else claimed it.

This explanation doesn't make much sense to me either. If Guardian2 was mafia and Guardian1 was the mafia kill, the mafia would have known that pickem was killed by either a vig or an SK. No SK would have come forward to claim the kill, and any vig who'd killed pickem still wouldn't know whether Guardian2 was mafia or SK. So I don't see how this would have screwed him over. Even aside from that issue, it seems you didn't even consider the possibility that Guardian was mafia simply trying to get a feel for who the other killer was before he went down. Your defence of him looks very bad.

[Incognito]

Even after like 20 rereads of Xylthixlm's opening post here, I still can't understand what he's saying.

[Matt_S]

Okay, there goes one of my top suspects. I'll do a reread tomorrow.

[Xylthixlm]

If someone else claimed the Guardian1 kill, there were three possibilities: Either Guardian2 is lying, the other person is lying, or there are three killers (Guardian2, mafia, and the other person).

If someone else claimed the pickemgenius kill, there were three possibilities: Either Guardian2 is lying, the other person is lying, or there are three killers (Guardian2, mafia, and the other person).

Guardian2 is exactly the same amount of screwed either way.

[Xylthixlm]

Day 1:

opie

- 5 (Oman,

ChaosOmega

,

pickemgenius

,

Adel

,

Guardian^1

)
Day 2:

Guardian^2

- 5 (Erg0, Oman, Incognito,

Adel

, Patrick)

Does anyone else find it odd that almost everyone on the D1 lynch is now dead?

[Matt_S]

Day 1:

opie

- 5 (Oman,

ChaosOmega

,

pickemgenius

,

Adel

,

Guardian^1

)
Day 2:

Guardian^2

- 5 (Erg0, Oman, Incognito,

Adel

, Patrick)

Does anyone else find it odd that almost everyone on the D1 lynch is now dead?

I didn't notice. Is there a reason you're bringing this up?

[Xylthixlm]

I don't usually expect scum to kill the scummy people.

[Matt_S]

I don't usually expect scum to kill the scummy people.

Why do I get the feeling you're about to bring up some WIFOM about Oman still being alive?

[Oman]

OMG! LEAVE GUARDIAN ALIVE HE IS THE SK.

You guys should listen to me more often
Do I think Guardian would have been bussed:

I do not believe that this (Interesting) claim would have caused his mafia buddies to bus him. Thus I assume there is AT MOST 1 scum on the Guardian lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

If Oman is scum, the scum would be dumb to kill the townies he could hide behind. Although I can sort of see why he'd want to kill Adel.

If Oman isn't scum, it seems most likely that a vig killed Adel and the scum kill was blocked.

[Oman]

My top two suspicions are still firmly planted on Oman and Xylthixlm so I'll go with this:

Nice...you know that I was on the guardian wagon, which is what you said Erg0 was town for?

[Matt_S]

If Oman is scum, the scum would be dumb to kill the townies he could hide behind. Although I can sort of see why he'd want to kill Adel.

If Oman isn't scum, it seems most likely that a vig killed Adel and the scum kill was blocked.

Vote Xylthixlm

. Not only did you do what I expected a scum to do, but as someone said in another game, scum seem to bring up good kills or blocked kills.

[Xylthixlm]

Before I respond to that... what do you think my position is on Oman?

[Matt_S]

Before I respond to that... what do you think my position is on Oman?

"Scumbuddy who I'm trying to protect". Or, in other words, your position on Oman is not lynching him.

[Xylthixlm]

So why aren't you voting Oman?

[Matt_S]

So why aren't you voting Oman?

Because for my theory Omanscum follows from Xylthixlmscum, not the other way.

[Xylthixlm]

But your argument for me being scum is that Oman is my scumbuddy and I'm defending him. In other words, "the other way".

[Patrick]

If someone else claimed the Guardian1 kill, there were three possibilities: Either Guardian2 is lying, the other person is lying, or there are three killers (Guardian2, mafia, and the other person).

If someone else claimed the pickemgenius kill, there were three possibilities: Either Guardian2 is lying, the other person is lying, or there are three killers (Guardian2, mafia, and the other person).

Guardian2 is exactly the same amount of screwed either way.

This seems like a very misleading way of presenting the facts. I explained in my last post why a vig claiming the pickem kill would not have meant Guardian2 was screwed, since it wouldn't say anything about whether Guardian was mafia or SK. By contrast, a vig claiming the Guardian1 kill would have meant Guardian was directly lying about who he killed, unless Guardian1 was killed by two groups and it just didn't show in the nightscene. Meanwhile an SK wouldn't claim in either situation. Presenting the situations in the way you've done doesn't make them the same.

Also, why did you ignore the possibility that Guardian was mafia trying to draw out the real killer (even after people brought it up)?

Nice...you know that I was on the guardian wagon, which is what you said Erg0 was town for?

There's a fairly large difference between the way in which you voted ChaosOmega/Guardian, and the way in which Erg0 did. With that said, Xylthixlm's attemps to deflect it bother me more than the way you just sat on it.

[Incognito]

My top two suspicions are still firmly planted on Oman and Xylthixlm so I'll go with this:

Nice...you know that I was on the guardian wagon, which is what you said Erg0 was town for?

The situations are quite different, Oman. Let me break it down:

During Day 1 there were two separate wagons at one point on two townies: opie and Guardian1. Now while Erg0 did mention that he didn't think the case on opie was very solid, he did mention that he actually liked the case on Guardian1. Despite that, he still decided to place the second vote on ChaosOmega when, if Erg0 was scum, he would have had

no incentive

to bus his buddy at that time. He didn't just place his vote and quickly remove it either - his vote would have been good through ChaosOmega's lynch had he not claimed cop. That's what makes me believe that ChaosOmega/Guardian2 and Erg0 are not scum with one another. This reasoning also applies to Patrick who placed the first vote on ChaosOmega during D1 and Matt_S who cross-posted with Erg0 to place the third vote on ChaosOmega.

Compare that with Day 2 where you, Oman, placed the fourth vote on ChaosOmega, and while we discussed the possibility of Guardian2 being a serial killer, you laid low only to appear once in awhile to either confirm your vote on Guardian2 or change your vote to Xylthixlm, and then confirm your vote on Guardian2. You had plenty of incentive at that point to bus ChaosOmega/Guardian2 because he was so obvscum. That's why the same Erg0 has to be a townie reasoning doesn't apply to you, Oman.

So why aren't you voting Oman?

Because for my theory Omanscum follows from Xylthixlmscum, not the other way.

Matt_S, could you explain this? Why does Omanscum only follow Xylthixlmscum?

Day 1:

opie

- 5 (Oman,

ChaosOmega

,

pickemgenius

,

Adel

,

Guardian^1

)
Day 2:

Guardian^2

- 5 (Erg0, Oman, Incognito,

Adel

, Patrick)

Does anyone else find it odd that almost everyone on the D1 lynch is now dead?

Xylthixlm, this pretty much confirms my read on you. Now you're trying to interpret the night-time WIFOM to somehow suggest that Oman could be innocent?

If Oman is scum, the scum would be dumb to kill the townies he could hide behind. Although I can sort of see why he'd want to kill Adel.

If Oman isn't scum, it seems most likely that a vig killed Adel and the scum kill was blocked.

No, I still believe that the "shooting" deaths were performed by the mafia and now that no second kill happened during Night 2, either a kill was blocked or perhaps we have a single-kill nighttime vigilante who used his single-kill during Night 1. Or maybe something completely different.

[Incognito]

They found handcuffs in her pocket, but since this was Adel they decided that they probably weren't there for law enforcement.

This made me lol.