Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Adel]

Btw, I'm inv immune and NK immune.

is it too late for me to

unvote

?

I just saw this.

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Votecount #49

Guardian - 3 (Erg0,Oman, Incognito)

Oman - 1 (Guardian)

Not voting - 5 (Patrick, Jitsu, Xylthixlm, Matt_S, Adel)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
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[Adel]

vote: Oman

[Guardian]

Adel, why does me being NK and inv immune make you want to bus Oman all of a sudden?

[Erg0]

Wrong. Having an SK alive is much less of a disadvantage than having an extra mafia alive.

You're forgetting something: Guardian's best chance of a win from here is to use his kill to keep us in LyLo for the remainder of the game so that we can't lynch him, and with those numbers it's perfectly possible for him to do it whether we lynch mafia today or not.

The three good scenarios that you put forward almost certainly won't happen, because Guardian has zero incentive to kill anyone but a townie tonight if we lynch scum today.

If we bump off two scum by tomorrow then we can lynch him safely, but if we only kill one then he can cruise to endgame.

Looking at the more moderate examples: If we go to 3-2-1 tomorrow then we need to lynch and NK the two mafia on day 3 or we're in a 1-1-1 endgame and the power is out of the town's hands. Bear in mind that if we lynch mafia day 3 in that scenario then Guardian has no incentive to kill mafia on night 3 because that will then get us out of LyLo and allow us to lynch him for the win on day 4. 3-3-1 has the same problem. 4-2-1 is just as bad, because a 2-1-1 endgame still requires a no lynch for the town to have a chance of winning.

With 4-3-0 we have the chance to win the game with our own lynches. This is not true of any of the scenarios that involve SK Guardian staying alive, unless he messes up and kills mafia by accident.

[Guardian]

Erg0, why do you continue to ignore 1155?

[Erg0]

I'm ignoring it because it's idiotic. You're proposing that we throw the game on principle if you don't do as we say, which is just never going to happen.

[Guardian]

Credible threat. It should happen. It is how we can work together... This seems trivially true to me. It's iterated prisoner's dilemma, we both have to cooperate for optimal benefit.

Even if you for some reason are unconvinced... I am. I am not going to go against the town's wishes tonight, because you should lynch me if I do.

[Erg0]

This is not an equitable contract because the risk is all on our side. Your starting position is "dead", because that's what you'll be if we don't agree to your proposal. Assuming we actually stuck to the terms: If you break the contract tonight then you go from dead today to dead tomorrow, which is a net loss to you of zero. We, on the other hand, go from being in a winnable position today to losing tomorrow, which is obviously a huge loss on our part.

Realistically, the town would never actually go through with a suicidal lynch, and you know it. It would be utterly foolhardy to kill ourselves just to punish you, especially when there would still be a chance of a town win in endgame.

[Guardian]

You're starting to convince me .

[Erg0]

Ok then, I'll make it simple:

Play to win the game.

Me knowingly pursuing a lynch that would lose the game for the town breaches this rule. Likewise, you intentionally nightkilling the mafia so that we can safely lynch you and win the game breaches this rule. I don't believe for a second that you're not playing to win. You're counting on us not following through with the threat to lynch you tomorrow, and the worst possible outcome for you is simply that we lynch you tomorrow instead of today. "I promise that I'll do what you say, or you can kill both of us" is not a good bargain from our end, but it's a great one from yours.

[Guardian]

I think this credible threat is a good meta strategy.

But, well then....

You guys will just have to make up your own mind whether having an SK around is good.

Just know that I am an SK, and make your decisions based on that.

[Oman]

Hey guys, I'm still here. I'm personally happy with lynching Guardian. I lynch (esp. NK IMMUNE) scum on sight.

[Erg0]

The basic problem is that a threat which involves the town committing suicide just to teach you a lesson is not, and can never be, credible.

[Guardian]

So, assuming 1 mafia 2 townies dead tomorrow:

3-2-1

1 mafia, 2 townie dead.

1-1-1

and I win.

Is the rational play really to lynch me? That can't be .

4-3 the town is just screwed.


Yeah, the rational play is for me *not to play optimally* so you guys *don't lynch me*.

Just like I've been saying. By 'promising' to play nice, I *AM* playing optimally, because only that allows you to keep me alive, rationally.

It is a freaking iterated prisoner's dilemma.

Town cooperates, I cooperate, scum is disadvantaged.

We lynch town today, I'll try and NK scum.

We lynch scum today, I no kill, or try and NK scum, at town's discretion.

It is an IPD where you have the opportunity to punish me should I defect.

AHA -- AHA I am a genius.
if we make it to 1-1-1, you lynch me to punish me for having defected. Only if I cooperate, does the town not lynch me in 1-1-1.

You DO have a way of getting back at me. So we CAN cooperate.

IPD.

So, can we lynch scum now?

[Guardian]

The basic problem is that a threat which involves the town committing suicide just to teach you a lesson is not, and can never be, credible.

At 1-1-1, the simulated conclusion if I defect, town can't win -- and my fate would be in the town's hands. The town then defects, and both town and me lose.

I can't win unless I cooperate with the town! So you can force me to cooperate. Yay!

[Erg0]

Once again, lynching you in 1-1-1 is town suicide. Going to no-lynch is the only option in that situation.

The point is that if you don't play the way we want you to we *can't* lynch you without costing ourselves the game. Basically, once we hit LyLo (which you can induce with your kill tonight, regardless of our lynch today) you can do whatever you want and we can't touch you. I'm fairly sure you already know this.

If we don't lynch you today then we have no further power over your actions unless you decide to help us out of the goodness of your heart. You're expecting us to believe that you'll willingly sacrifice yourself to help us win, when there's clearly an option available to you that would give you a chance of winning. How gullible do you think we are?

[Guardian]

Once again, lynching you in 1-1-1 is town suicide. Going to no-lynch is the only option in that situation.

I am unNK able. If you get to 1-1-1, you've lost, and then you punish me by making me lose.

The point is that if you don't play the way we want you to we *can't* lynch you without costing ourselves the game. Basically, once we hit LyLo (which you can induce with your kill tonight, regardless of our lynch today) you can do whatever you want and we can't touch you. I'm fairly sure you already know this.

NO, if you get to 1-1-1, you've lost, and you lynch me. I have to not let you get there, because if we do get there, you return my defection and I lose.

If we don't lynch you today then we have no further power over your actions unless you decide to help us out of the goodness of your heart. You're expecting us to believe that you'll willingly sacrifice yourself to help us win, when there's clearly an option available to you that would give you a chance of winning. How gullible do you think we are?

Untrue, untrue, untrue. See above.

[Guardian]

PS, if I am not unNKable, or may be lying whatever, the scum can try and NK me. And your problem is still solved.

I'm right!

[Erg0]

I'm sure the mafia would be only too happy to potentially waste a kill for our benefit.

NO, if you get to 1-1-1, you've lost, and you lynch me. I have to not let you get there, because if we do get there, you return my defection and I lose.

But if you keep us from getting to 1-1-1 then we lynch you and you still lose. What's in it for you?

[Xylthixlm]

I'm ignoring it because it's idiotic. You're proposing that we throw the game on principle if you don't do as we say, which is just never going to happen.

Agreed. But we still shouldn't lynch Guardian.

Also, there's no reason to believe or disbelieve Guardian's statement about being NK immune. He has no reason to tell the truth there.

[Adel]

sorry for being swingy, but

unvote, vote:Guardian

new and improved suggested lynch order: Guardian, Oman...

[Guardian]

No, new and improved lynch order:

Adel, Oman, Matt_S.

Erg0 -- living through today is in it for me. Death later is better than death now.

Adel can't possibly be pro-town here.

unvote vote: Adel

[Guardian]

Honestly, Adel *cannot possibly* be pro-town. If you think Adel is pro-town, you're wrong. If you let me live through today, and we lynch someone other than Adel who shows up town, I'm killing Adel, unless town has a much, much better suggestion.

[Patrick]

Home access still down. Boy this game is growing fast.

If we're at 5 town, 3 mafia, 1 SK, we need to lynch mafia today. Full stop. Lynching the SK is not an option with any chance of winning.

I think this is far from clear, but I won't argue with particular point right now.

I was pretty well convinced that Adel was an SK, and Guardian^2 mafia. Guardian's SK claim blows that theory out of the water. If Guardian is mafia, claiming SK is an extremely gutsy move; his claim would be flattened if someone else claimed the Guardian^1 kill. I'm inclined to think he's telling the truth.

This is flawed logic, which could actually be bordering on a slip from you.

Why are you ignoring the possibility that the Guardian1 kill was performed by the mafia

and that Guardian2 is mafia? Is it because you know that the mafia didn't kill Guardian1 last night? Also note: I could see a possibility where Guardian2 is mafia, the mafia killed pickem last night, and that Guardian is claiming SK to try and get a feel for who the gun killer is from the reactions.

I see that this has been mentioned by Incog and Erg0 in later posts. I agree with them.

Vote: Guardian

. I think it's the hammer, and I think we've had a good amount of information from today.

If Guardian is mafia and I'm not around tomorrow, I can only reiterate that I like Oman and Xylthixlm as his buddies. Xylthixlm's play today has been pretty scummy, I got the vague feeling 24 hours ago that he was holding back on giving an opinion on the whole Guardian claims SK issue, so he could wait to see which way the wind blew, which is why I asked his opinion. I haven't liked his play much in general, as I've discussed already in several previous posts, and his defence of Guardian2 today hasn't improved my opinion of him. ChaosOmega's day 1, "your posts are just useless bullshit" comment to Xylthixlm look vaguely like distancing.

If Guardian is an SK and I'm not around, still look at Xyl and Oman as possible scumbuddies. Xylthixlm has been way too lenient on Oman all game, including a craplogical defence of him which I discussed in post 849. Oman's play today has been consistently scummy, no attempts to scumhunt or contribute anything real to the discussion.

As for others, Adel is possible scum in either scenario, with Jitsu and Matt_S being my other possibles. I'm pretty sure both Inconito and Erg0 are town, and if Guardian is mafia that will pretty much confirm my view.

[vollkan]

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End of D2 Votecount

Guardian - 5 (Erg0, Oman, Incognito, Adel, Patrick)

Adel - 1 (Guardian)

Not voting - 3 (Jitsu, Xylthixlm, Matt_S)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
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As the crowd encircled Guardian, he came to realise that it was no longer any use pretending to be a cop. He sighed, and tried a new tactic, “Look, I am just a serial killer. You can trust me.”

When it dawned on him that this latest plea, oddly enough, was not believed, Guardian stood still and glared at the eight others. As Guardian was strung up on a lamppost, he gave a malicious laugh: “Even if you kill me, your town won’t last much longer. The Family shall triumph.”

Guardian,

Mafia Goon

, was lynched D2

It is now Night 2:
You have

72 hours

to get any night choices in to me.

Deadline for N2 is

Monday March 24, 12:20 AM GMT+10