Countdown of the Illuminati GAME OVER

[neko2086]

/confirm

[neko2086]

I was also going to suggest that everyone read that game, or at least skim through it, especially the newer people. It's going to be a bit different with the SK, as there is a bit more pressure to keep things moving along.

It looks like the SK made their first guarantee kill. We have a week before they can make another one.

About the random voting... I can see how it could be harmful to the town, but could it be equally harmful for the scum? I just noticed that in the original M&M, it was mafia that first discouraged random voting, and I'm not sure if it was a move to look townie, or if there was a strategic reason for it. I'm thinking it's the former, but perhaps it should be considered.

[neko2086]

The mafia will (almost certainly) have a code for when they are "daykilling".

Yes, but they could also make up a fake code to lead the town to draw incorrect conclusions and connections, so I'd be careful when searching for such things.

I agree that we should probably lynch once per week, thus keeping pace with the SK. If the SK is lynched, then we can take a little more time.

Also because the serial killer did not get a kill pregame it leads me to believe beepy beep beep is scum

Can you elaborate? I don't see what you're getting at here. The SK got a kill right off the bat, and I don't see what beep beep has to do with anything.


armlx, I was simply pointing out what you just did, that it was the SK's move and not mafia. Obviously, anyone who read the rules would know this, but it's important to keep in mind that we only have a week until the SK gets another kill.

[neko2086]

Mmmm no. Beep Beep posted almost an hour after Pooky posted. The SK probably pre-submitted the first kill.

[neko2086]

That was in response to Max, btw.

[neko2086]

I think we should lynch at least once per week, preferably a few times if cases are there, until the SK is dead.

Bad idea. From what I understand the SK can guarantee kill once per week, or after the town has lynched. If we were to lynch right now, for example, we would cancel out that week-long waiting period and the SK could make another guarantee kill, right? So, we shoud lynch just before his waiting period is over.


Also, do you think the scum are going to follow the same plan as last time? It's already been said that any code the scum might devise would likely not be cracked by the town, thus, if anyone were to claim to have figured out their code, I would be extremely cautious about believing it.

[neko2086]

Nabakov, read the end of the original game. Mitzef and ABR had codes that they would use if they were about to be lynched which would point out their targets for desperate daykills, and the order in which they would be attempting to kill them. That way, when they inevitably died from a failed daykill, their partners would know who they tried to kill, and would know not to target that person.

For town, if they could crack that code, they'd know who else was town-aligned since they would be in that coded list. But, remember, the scum are only dropping these codes when they're about to be lynched and are going on a suicidal mission, so even if we were to spot the code, we'd be finding out they were scum soon anyway. That's not the issue. The issue is the interpretation of the code afterwards, and I think it's a dangerous thing to try, as it could lead us down the wrong path.

[neko2086]

Masons & Mafia

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6663

[neko2086]

vote : neko2086 for the being the first to mention the SK kill

Actually, Beep Beep was the first, but I don't find that in itself particularly scummy anyway.

and bringing up mafia codes ..

Mitzef brought it up originally, actually. Do you find what I've said to be unhelpful to town? Do you find what I've said more unhelpful to town than what Mitzef has said?

[neko2086]

my intention wasn't to be WIFOMy, though I see how I was. Mitzef said that the mafia would be creating codes, and I only wanted to warn people, especially the newbies, that they could potentially be misleading. Mitzef himself said "You probably won't pick up on it," so naturally, I'm concerned about trying to find such a code and interpreting it incorrectly. I suppose, though, that I shouldn't have even said anything unless that started to happen.


muffinhead, you will want to start by reading the previous game, to which there is a link on pg 2 of this thread. Since you're very new, I would suggest reading that game thoroughly. Make yourself a list of who is scum, mason, and town, then read the thread to see what they each do. It'll be a tad different this time with the SK, but I think the gameplay will be very similar, so that will be your best place to start.

[neko2086]

um, that is strange, Beep doesn't appear to be in this game at all.

muffinhead, I put the link up on pg 2 under the title Masons & Mafia. I even said on pg 3 that the link was on pg 2.

Also, I think it would be ideal to lynch the SK as soon as possible, as the existence of a SK that can kill once a week severely cuts back our discussion time. Lynching mafia in the meantime would be wonderful.

Mitzef, you have an FOS on me that you haven't yet explained. Seeing as how you're interested in everyone else explaining their votes/suspicions, I would hope that you would do the same.

ABR, could you elaborate a little on your "it's not what you can prove, it's what you know" bit? True there is a portion of players who have some prior knowledge that can help steer us away from bad lynches, but there is also a portion of players who don't know anything about anybody else and would like very much for some reasons to suspect lynch candidates. Also, the mafia are just as capable of steering lynches, so what people

know

isn't always going to help us. I think it is still in the best interest of the town to give some sort of reasoning when voting.

[neko2086]

why try and send us on a wild goose chase looking for codes?

Are you not paying attention? That is exactly what I am trying to prevent!

also, we should be ahead of the SK, not at pace with him/her. so we should lynch more than once a week so we can get to the SK before he/she kills people.

This has already been covered.

but still..

Still think Neko's WIFOM, hysteria causing, and forced commenting deserves a vote over him though.

QFT so i'll keep my vote on him for now

Actually, I want to address both of these at the same time. First, have I really caused any hysteria? A big debate, yes, but hysteria? That's a bit of an exaggeration.
Dahill, it looks like you're stretching and pulling to find a reason to vote me. Others that have voted me have at least come up with plausible reasons as to why I might be anti-town. You voted me with bad reasoning and ended up just quoting somebody else's logic. Looking back, too, you had a very early fos on me, which was also prompted by others' suspicion of me. What do you

personally

think of me?

FOS

for you in the meantime.

Though I would agree with Guardian that neko's suggestion of a fake code seems like scum laying the seed of doubt should their code ever be discovered.

If somebody says they discover a code, should we just go ahead and believe them? I just believe that absolutely everything in this game should be considered with an

extremely

critical eye.

muffinhead, if you really think I'm the sk, you ought to be voting for me. Actually, scum A will sometimes buddy up to town B in order to keep B from voting A, so just because I answered your questions, that shouldn't be your basis for not voting for me. If you

are

going to vote me, though, you should reconsider your logic.

Max, while muffinhead's vote is not at all well placed, he is also a newbie. So, do you think his vote is newbie-town or newbie-scum? I'm not sure we can tell either way yet.

[neko2086]

Wow.

Guardian, you were pretty eager to vote Mitzef before the muffinwagon. Now you want discussion to take place. Really, we had

plenty

of time for discussion before we needed to lynch, so I'm not sure why you're concerned about it now. Do you have doubts about a Mitzef-lynch?

[neko2086]

Sarcastro, you've been more or less lurking in plain sight. This game has moved incredibly fast, but now would be a wonderful time to start contributing if you really haven't had time to yet.

Mitzef, I wouldn't even bring up the meta on flameaxe. That would lead to a very useless discussion. What we can discuss is flameaxe's play here. Again, here is somebody who has posted but not contributed much. Mitzef, did you not notice that part?

Blazerunner has made 2 posts I believe. If there were others, I missed them. His last post seems to be an echo of previous arguments. More contribution from him would be nice as well.

[neko2086]

You've posted a few times, but you haven't posted anything of substance. That, to me, is lurking in plain sight--posting so as to seem active and present without actually having to contribute anything.

So, what are your thoughts on the game so far? You voted max early on--do you still consider him a viable scum candidate? If not, then who?

[neko2086]

If you really haven't had time to contribute before (even though you had time for a random vote and other useless posts), then it shouldn't be unreasonable to ask for your thoughts now. So:

So, what are your thoughts on the game so far? You voted max early on--do you still consider him a viable scum candidate? If not, then who?

Did you ever vote Miztef? I don't think you did.


btw, sorry for calling you Mitzef this whole time, Miz, I just now realized I read it wrong.

[neko2086]

Gotcha. I missed that.

I noticed this, and I have a question:

Its much more likely the SK waited to see who was lynched then sent in a kill.

I would have expected the SK's kill to be in pooky's lynch post, too, if they had pre-submitted a kill, but I don't really see what they would gain by waiting to see who got lynched. Why would they need to know this so early in the game? It seems to me that early choices would be more or less random, and as the game progressed, the choices would be more thought-out.

[neko2086]

I agree with this wagon. Flameaxe has contributed hardly anything of substance.

vote: Flameaxe

5 more

[neko2086]

aie.

unvote; vote: armlx

[neko2086]

Guardian, do you believe lloyd would try to bus a partner when the scum are already not doing so well? I'm asking because lloyd was voting flameaxe when we were attempting a quicklynch.

[neko2086]

wait, armlx WAS trying to find the SK.

If I remember correctly, though, he was really trying to set up lloyd as the SK. That doesn't necessarily discredit all SK-hunting efforts as the scum want the SK dead just as much as anyone else, but it's apparent that his efforts haven't been 100% sincere.

[neko2086]

Pg 9

Albert,

I want to discuss mechanics of the serial killer because it's a key difference between the two games.

It's odd that you would ask for opinions on game mechanics theory, reference the last game, yet discount the key difference between the two games.

I'm not the serial killer.

I wanted to be when I signed up, and was hoping for the role (but didn't get it), so I gave SK strategy some thought before roles were assigned.

Subliminal hints / useless unnecessary role claiming much (ala I'm not scum therefore arguments)

Right now...Given that 3 mafia are dead,

I think the SK is now actively hunting for mafia.

If all mafia are dead, it increases the likelihood of the SK's Risky Kill of succeeding.

Since I'm not the SK, I don't care whether we lynch mafia or SK.

We have to lynch both sets of scums to win.

I notice how he specifies SK here, really subtle tell given the rest of his language in the paragraph

---
Guardian,

I think it's a mistake to discontinue quick lynching. It worked well on Muffinhead.

If it ain't broken, why fix it?

So a quick lynch on someone who exhibited a huge scum tell means we should just charge recklessly?

I advocate continuing to quick lynch

, because

it gives less time for

scums to engage in WIFOM

discussions

.

Nice argument. Talk less, kill more

Another benefit of quick lynching is to catch lurker scum off guard.

As for others' arguments that quick lynching benefits the SK, I strongly disagree. By quick lynching, we give scums less time to react.

Unlike others, I think

slow lynching

benefits the SK, because it gives him / her

time to figure out alignments

for his / her Risky Kills.

Hmm, isn't this true for, I don't know, the town too?

I agree with your original assessment that quick lynchs may be a game breaking strategy, and we should continue to do so.

While we are winning (with 3 scums down), I think we should push on with quick lynches.

If we start losing too many townies

, then we can re-read then and also look at vote patterns then. Right now is time to quick lynch, and we should seize the momentum.

Read "When we start losing too many townies". Also the use of townies is awkward. Why not also quick lynch based on voting records, instead of going oh shit we just punted a lot of lynches, no more room to fuck up

---
Here are my suspicions:

Miztef - I found him suspicious yesterday, and Albert agreed with me (yesterday, both Albert and I quoted the same sentence that Miztef wrote earlier). Today, I still find Miztef supicious, so my vote on Miztef remains.

armlx - Suspicious for confirming Miztef for supposedly being at L-1. In re-reading, Miztef had 6 votes at most, and we need 8 votes to lynch today.

armlx's flurry of posts to find the SK isn't convincing either, and only adds to confusion.

Trying to find scum with logical arguments is bad? Though I admit I was thinking 15/2 = 7, not 8. Damn C++ and its ints.

Max - Max mis-wrote that I hammered, when ooba had hammered. I don't think it matters who actually hammered, so his argument fails to make sense. This is a second time (first Beep Beep, now me) that Max has used faulty logic as his reason to accuse someone.

I took this as an attempt to fram lloyd as the SK. It's obviously not a "mistake." Now, that doesn't mean he didn't try at some point to find the SK. Obviously the scum need the SK dead, too, but it's clear to me that armlx's efforts weren't 100% sincere.

[neko2086]

EBWOP: an attempt to

frame

lloyd.

[neko2086]

either pre-planned, or my early gaffes made me an easy target. Remember DG, a large scum-team is just as capable of steering bad lynches as they are bussing each other. It appears that so far they have done a wonderful job of bussing themselves to death, but in order to win, they need to lynch people

other

than themselves as well, so, I hope you have reasons for suspecting me other than the fact I was the target of many scum.

[neko2086]

DG, read through the first few pages and think about this question:

Were the scum framing me as mafia or the SK?

On the topic of the SK.

Vote neko2086

It looks like the SK made their first guarantee kill. We have a week before they can make another one.

This sentence feel really forced to anyone else?

Now that I've had a chance to look at the thread... why isn't neko dead yet? Seriously, the comment about the SK kill is scummy as all hell.

Vote: neko

(even though i reckon he is sk since he first mentioned it)

It seems to me that the scum actually thought I was the SK, and, seeing as how they want to get rid of the SK, I think this may have been a genuine attempt to find the SK. To be fair, Nabakov put suspicion on me because of the code business, but the others seemed more concerned about the SK comment.

And, I also have to recognize that armlx bussed lloyd under some SK suspicions, but even if that supports my being mafia, I'd say that at least puts even

more

doubt on armlx's SK-hunting efforts, and makes me question your willingness to follow them.

[neko2086]

We already had this discussion, DGB.

From what I understand the SK can guarantee kill once per week, or after the town has lynched. If we were to lynch right now, for example, we would cancel out that week-long waiting period and the SK could make another guarantee kill

Also, I do not understand what makes you so positive flameaxe would kill you.

If he were the SK, would he kill NabNab (I have no idea, maybe someone else knows)?

I don't see any use in speculating over why NabNab was killed. I see no evidence pointing to anything conclusive.

[neko2086]

i didn't realize at first that the SK could kill after lynches because i'm not the SK

Having a certain role does not necessarily increase one's attention to detail.

[neko2086]

sorry Guardian, but I didn't understand a damn thing you just said. Do us all a favor and quote or link or something.

Do you think I'm mafia or SK? If you're not sure, which do you think is more likely? Use some sort of reasoning and/or evidence, please.

[neko2086]

y'all suck. I hope my lynch proves useful.

[neko2086]

sorry Guardian, but I didn't understand a damn thing you just said. Do us all a favor and quote or link or something.

Do you think I'm mafia or SK? If you're not sure, which do you think is more likely? Use some sort of reasoning and/or evidence, please.

Don't you even dare ignore my question. Don't anyone else let him get by without answering this. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the answer could be extremely important.

[neko2086]

Damnit to all hell. The quote is by me, not you.

[neko2086]

Sorry for the triple post here, but if I die by the time I get back from class, you should all just take a look at the scum's arguments about me from early on, like the first few pages, and think real hard about whether I was being bussed

as mafia

or not.

[neko2086]

I did, and I do now.

ANSWER MY QUESTION NOW OR BE FORCED TO ANSWER IT AFTER I'M DEAD, GUARDIAN

[neko2086]

Guardian is right, though, the last mafia going down wouldn't go down shooting.

[neko2086]

the last mafia, if he wants to win, will not risk his life trying to kill all the masons, unless he just wanted to try to fuck them over and give the SK a good shot.

the sk can try risky kills, though


Guardian, why are you not answering my question?

[neko2086]

but guardian, look at the first few pages. were the scum bussing me

as mafia

or were they framing me as SK?

[neko2086]

Well, the thing is, no one, until me just there, suggested that he was being deceitful about it.

That, to me, implies that they are making up bullshit, which is anti-town motivated. If this is true, there isn't much room left for dahill to be scum.

Let's see, who said this about dahill...

neko... who else? I can't find who brought this up, for sure.

I found neko scummy earlier. And, one thing I find as a poitn a gainst him, he asked me a question, I missed it an got suspicious of him, and he never brought it up again.

unvote vote neko

This is your post that I did not understand at all.



This is why I'm asking you if you think I'm scum or SK

DG, read through the first few pages and think about this question:

Were the scum framing me as mafia or the SK?

On the topic of the SK.

Vote neko2086

It looks like the SK made their first guarantee kill. We have a week before they can make another one.

This sentence feel really forced to anyone else?

Now that I've had a chance to look at the thread... why isn't neko dead yet? Seriously, the comment about the SK kill is scummy as all hell.

Vote: neko

(even though i reckon he is sk since he first mentioned it)

It seems to me that the scum actually thought I was the SK, and, seeing as how they want to get rid of the SK, I think this may have been a genuine attempt to find the SK. To be fair, Nabakov put suspicion on me because of the code business, but the others seemed more concerned about the SK comment.

And, I also have to recognize that armlx bussed lloyd under some SK suspicions, but even if that supports my being mafia, I'd say that at least puts even

more

doubt on armlx's SK-hunting efforts, and makes me question your willingness to follow them.

[neko2086]

It doesn't matter which flavor they were trying to say you were, what matters is they was all up in your grill saying you were not town.

It sorta does if they really thought I might be the SK. The mafia want the SK dead, too. They may have thought they caught the SK making a serious mistake and wanted to get their votes pulled together to get rid of him early

[neko2086]

I'm down with a Blaze vote. If he really was watching but not voting/saying anything, I'd say he might be trying to stay out of the spotlight

vote: blazerunner

Guardian, obviously bussing can help, but at the end of the day, the scum have to get the town and the SK lynched. They cannot spend their entire time bussing.

[neko2086]

*waves hand*
and ooba is dead, but I think the rest of your list is correct.

Has anyone considered the possibility of Guardian being SK? The thought crossed my mind a couple times throughout the game. I'm going to have to reread.

Question for Max: how does DG's "protecting" ABR point to ABR being a SK? Not sure I follow the logic there.

[neko2086]

DG, would you mind pointing out these "few things" that you looked at?
Also, what chart are you talking about?

The first reason is that I wasn't around for the first kill.

You wouldn't have to be. Or, as it's already been pointed out, there's no way to prove you weren't there (could have hidden status)

The second reason is that the SK can send his kill to the mod ahead of the lynch.

This is true. I don't know how this doesn't make you SK, though.


Guardian, I was obviously not asking you

[neko2086]

I'm still rereading and making notes. I won't have a decision yet today, but I will well before our time is up. We still have a few days.

As of right now, I'm leaning toward Max, but that will possibly change. I'll have my choice(s) and reasons soon.

[neko2086]

I think Guardian may be right. Going to

vote:DGB

for now, but we have just under 36 hrs left, so if I get a chance to finish rereading tonight I may have a different idea. DGB looks like one of the most likely at the moment.

I believe DGB is now at L-2

[neko2086]

I think you're likely to be scum, but if not, it's probably ABR. He's been after you for quite awhile.

[neko2086]

ABR, I think we already discussed that "bumrushing" isn't going to help. We do need to make a decision quickly, but we have about 24hrs I think.

DG, you say that by my reasoning for voting you, I really ought to be voting ABR. You're assuming that I don't actually think you're scum, but rather that I'm just looking to prove that ABR is. You're right that if I thought ABR is scum I'd be voting for him. I feel that you, however, are more likely to be scum. I thought I made that clear.

Also, DG, why are you just

now

bringing out evidence against me? You seem to have forgotten about me for awhile, but now you're trying to build a wagon on me again. Please comment.

[neko2086]

I want to point out ABR's overwhelming conviction that DBG was scum as false, however, I think it points him out as more town then scum.

This is extremely troubling for me. ABR was after DG so much the entire game, but their behaviors are quite similar. At one point someone said they looked like two townies arguing, and now, I'm inclined to agree.

Flameaxe and Samruc bother me the most so far. DG pointed out that flameaxe has been active in other games but very silent in this one. Samruc also seems to have been pretty quiet, only popping in to defend himself. Guardian wanted him lynched, but didn't specify very well why.

[neko2086]

Does flameaxe not realize that we need to lynch in like, 2 days?

Also, where is samruc? He has been active on the site as well.

mod:

can we get prods on flameaxe and samruc?

I'm still in favor of lynching one of these two. I don't think we can afford to keep anyone who is being intentionally useless. At the moment, I'm leaning toward flameaxe, since he's posted less content, imo. I'd really like to hear from them both first, though.

[neko2086]

I have one--who do you think is scum?

[neko2086]

fyi everyone, we've got about 15 hrs to make a decision.

vote: flameaxe

unless we can come up with a better option soon. Like, really soon.

[neko2086]

um, I think that's the hammer...

[neko2086]

I think we need to lynch either ABR or Samruc today. I'm leaning toward Samruc at the moment, but I need to do more rereading. I'll put much more explanation into my decision when I decide between the two.

Samruc, who would you like to lynch today? Once you answer, I think we'll have a good idea of where everyone is at for the moment.

[neko2086]

OK, so do you actually have any reasons to think I am SK? This looks way more like mason-fishing than scum-hunting to me.

[neko2086]

I'll only vote ABR if there is no chance two of the three of you would vote samruc with me. ABR, earlier you said you would refuse to lynch samruc. Is that still the case?

Max, do you think the SK really cares whether town or mafia is lynched?

[neko2086]

You don't have any tangible reason to vote me except your hate for me.

Did you forget this already, ABR?

"Its not what you can prove, its what you KNOW."

I think that quote has become more important today than ever before. It's difficult to talk about reasoning behind votes w/o revealing too much.

[neko2086]

wtf. Is this serious?

vote: ABR

I was likely going to do this anyway. If samruc were SK, he would have hammered ABR by now and finished the game, under the assumption the SK kept his risky kill.

[neko2086]

I would agree. I thought he was most likely a mason though. I'm really,

really

surprised I never got lynched. This game has tought me that some things are best kept to oneself...

[neko2086]

Guardian, you did well. Thanks for not hammering me

This was a slightly frustrating game as town, but, I have to say, it was loads of fun. Great setup, Pooky!