Ok, reread done. I'll do a player-by-player and then carry on from this point.
Matt_S - I don't like how he voted Guardian in 80 (after opie and Jitsu) and then immediately weakened it by saying in 86 that he would move it later. I think he may have missed the point of the case on opie initially, but the populist FoS in 190 is the most blatant case of either following or distancing that I've seen in a while. Strikes me as someone that doesn't really have any solid suspicions, but doesn't want to reveal that fact.
Adel - Has been true to her word of staying on opie (so far), which is nice. This case isn't bad in places, though a lot of it seems to boil down to opie being too keen. I do agree with the point about opie trying to extend suspicion to all of the players on my wagon, but the case falls down somewhat if Adel's hypothetical is inaccurate. The early case has led to the rest of her day basically consisting of commenting on who is and isn't likely to be opie's buddy, which s going to be a problem if he comes up town.
pickemgenius - I dunno, ask me again if he's alive tomorrow. Lots of dependencies, but he's playing how he always does. Pickem, you say in 207 that you want to lynch opie, but don't vote. Why not?
Oman - Seems ok to me, but I can never pick scum Oman til day 2. Neutral read right now.
opie - Looking at it as objectively as I can, I'd say he erred on the side of suspicion when reading Guardian's early posts. His initial defence of Adel's vote was pretty poor, as he went after her rather than her reasoning in 116 and didn't really defend himself properly until he had four votes on him. The possible attempted setup of a chain lynch is the most damning point against him, I'd say.
ChaosOmega - A post or two would be nice.
Xylthixlm - Follows Adel onto opie almost immediately, even though he thinks her reasoning is "not much to go on", and stuck around on the wagon for quite a while before unvoting immediately once opie posted his full defence in 184. Frankly, I didn't think that 184 was a good enough post to really change anyone's mind, especially when his new vote was for TG on a lame overreaction tell. Hassling of Adel over her models while staying on the wagon with her and wilful ignorance of TG's vote on him are also points against. I'd actually rate him opie's most likely buddy at this point.
Incognito - I actually really like his case on Guardian, as he's using a lot of the same tells that I tend to look for, such as a player asking questions without follow-up. I also agree with his point about Jitsu's apparent backdown in 129 (which I noted on my way through). Good scumhunting makes him pro-town for my money.
TrustGossip - I laughed when he voted Xyl and nobody followed him. His comment about Adel in 117, followed by his vote for Xyl in 119, make me think that TG believed Adel was setting a trap for someone to follow her in with a "too townie" argument, so he was trying to get town points by jumping on Xyl first. Nobody else followed, and he just kind of dropped it quietly and then unvoted 80-odd posts later. Later sniping could be distancing, too. IGMEOY.
Guardian - Has shown a few of my classic scumtells: asks lots of questions (some of them only marginally relevant) without really doing anything with the answers, picked on one point in Adel's case without really commenting on the rest of it in any detail, really did strawman Incognito's case on him in his more recent posts. I think I need a better meta on Guardian, he always looks like scum to me.
Jitsu - Reaction to Oman's daykill is neither here nor there, I don't think anyone really falls for that one any more. Post 129 set off major alarm bells for me, as he tries to paint himself as having been aware for some time that the wagon on me was non-serious, and was simply waiting for someone to admit it. The tone of his previous posts, such as 98 (where he responds seriously to Oman's joke case), don't tally with this assertion. His subsequent defence against Incognito's case smacks of revisionism, as he was obviously attempting to give the impression in 129 that he'd known for a while, whereas in 180 he says that he only realised this when Oman said it was a joke (in 120). Overall, 129 looks like a massive backdown brought on by the realisation that the position he has taken is seen as suspicious by the town as a whole. I wouldn't be surprised at all if opie is town caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, and Jitsu is the scum that was lucky enough to be given the opportunity to run away.
Vote: Jitsu
