Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Sarcastro]

So, I hear Max is scum. Discuss.

[Sarcastro]

Funny thing Sarcasto, I heard the same thing. But I can't remember who I heard it from. Who was it again?

God.

[Sarcastro]

Also, max, why do you think andersonw is clearly scum?

I'm sorry, but are you seriously asking Max to explain why he said someone was "clearly scum" in the

first post of the game

?

[Sarcastro]

Also, max, why do you think andersonw is clearly scum?

I'm sorry, but are you seriously asking Max to explain why he said someone was "clearly scum" in the

first post of the game

?

Yes, I am asking questions a lot this game because I can. Why would you doubt this claim?

I don't get it. Are you joking? Because you sound like you're serious, and I don't understand how you can ask a serious question about a random vote(list) in the first post of the game. What possible reason could Max give for thinking Anderson is scum? "I'm scum and I know that Anderson is as well?"

[Sarcastro]

Mod

, once everyone has voted, will you give us lists of the order in which people would be lynched based on current votes?

[Sarcastro]

Allow Max to defend himself. Also cease your attempt to squelch information. I am interested in Max's response. In a game where you attempt to determine guilt from innocence based upon the interactions of other players, understanding that 2 players have a history, and an inkling iof what that history may be is useful information to have when making an sssessment. I view Nocmen's question as a valid attempt to move beyond the random stage.
What is your relationship to Max, Sarcastro?

Sweet Zombie Jesus, am I the only sane person here?

What possible answer could Max give?

It was the

first post of the game

. It is

impossible

for him to have

any

logical reason for voting for Anderson unless he (Max) is scum, which he

obviously

wouldn't admit.

All I did was incredulously ask if Nocmen was asking as absurd a question as it seemed he was - I certainly didn't think people would start arguing that it wasn't an absurd question. I don't see what it has to do with squelching information or personal histories, either. And I especially don't see how you can see a nonsensical question as moving us beyond the random voting stage.

Nocmen, your question still makes no sense. Why does it matter what reason Max gives, when it necessarily must be a reason that has no bearing on the game?

[Sarcastro]

Sarc is giving me a bit of a pro-town vibe.

[Sarcastro]

Personally, I'm questioning your strategy of blatant distancing.

[Sarcastro]

It's not possible to create a combination of lists that would work that way. It would require the lists to be affected by who's scum and who's town. But given any list, we can figure out in advance, no matter who is scum and who is town, who will be left at the end of the game. So no, there's no possible way of breaking the game in that way. Given any combination of votes, there will always be someone who would win the game for the scum if he is scum.

[Sarcastro]

I think a general consensus would be great, Yos, but how exactly do you propose getting it? I know that I for one will not be particularly willing to change my votes to match those of others if the votes of others are, y'know, stupid.

Really, it makes more sense to think of it as a continuum of consensus. To move towards consensus from a free-for-all, someone has to be willing to say "I'll change my vote in a way that, according to my opinions, will make the scum more likely to win". I just don't see that happening on a very large scale.

That said, I can't speak for everyone. Maybe some people would be willing to change the ordering of people they feel less strongly about and such. Maybe some people would be willing to simply put faith in someone else's opinions. I just know that I wouldn't.

[Sarcastro]

(shrug) Well, Sarc, if we really wanted a general consensus, if the large majority of us really thought it was for the good of the town, we could basically force one, since all votes are public and anyone not going along with the consensus could quite easily and effectivly be pressured by the collective will of the rest of the town.

I'm not really sure we would want to do that, though.

Well yes, I'm sure that if a majority wanted it, it would be no problem. My point, however, was really that any sort of consensus would be difficult to establish in the first place, unless a large number of people agree closely regardless. I suppose that's not especially improbable, so maybe we will end up having that sort of a consensus. Really, I suppose my point is more that we can't really decide that we're going to have consensus. If enough people agree, maybe we can force one, but I'm not sure how much benefit there is in talking about it right now.

[Sarcastro]

I just want to point out that I find it a bit disturbing how many people have Yosarian at the very bottom of their lists. Not to pick on Yos too much just for being good, but out of all the players in this game, he is the one that I am least inclined to trust my read on. In a game where it is important that we put players on whom we have strong pro-town reads near the bottom, I certainly won't be putting a player as good as Yos there unless there are

no

people I feel strongly are pro-town.

The whole "smart/experienced/good player equals town" fallacy is extremely dangerous in this game. This is also why Ectomancer's blind dedication to Yos strikes me the wrong way.

[Sarcastro]

Code: Select all

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[Sarcastro]

In case it's not obvious, I just copied the most recently-posted votelist and replaced my name with Shy Guy's, because I realised it was almost the first deadline for voting. I'll be posting a real one tomorrow. Sorry for neglecting this game - it's reading break and I've been busy with other things. I'll be doing a full re-read soon.

[Sarcastro]

Okay, first of all, Max, your accusation of "buddying up" is utterly ridiculous. What, did you think I was planning on not posting anything until the deadline? Yeah, that'd definitely be a great strategy. I thought it would be obvious that I was simply delayed.

Ectomancer needs to be lynched first. Even if he's not scum, he is acting in an extremely dangerous fashion and, if Yos is scum, could hand the game to him if left alone.

Ecto, your logic is ridiculous. Yes, it is more likely that Yos is town than scum. But you're looking at this in an incredibly naive way. Let me put it this way: would you bet $10 with a 75% chance return of $11 and a 25% chance return of 0%? It would be absolutely idiotic to, but that's basically what you're proposing.

Yes, if Yos is town and also reasonably correct with his suspicions, you'll be helping the town. But if he's scum, you're giving the scum another ballot, which is a

huge

advantage.

If you really are town, I don't understand why you would rather bet on a 75% chance for a small reward (yes, I know it's not 75% if you're pro-town, but that doesn't matter), or on the

100% chance

that you are town. Seriously, your logic is absolutely ridiculous - all you're doing is throwing out a meaningless percentage.

The fact that you're sticking to your decision to trust Yos is rather disturbing, too. Thesp has pointed out why it can't be considered "random" at all. Funnily enough, if you'd have made the argument that Yos is more deserving of support because if he is town, he's more likely to have good suspicions, I might not feel so strongly about it, but you've made it clear that that's not the case.

So yeah, Ecto has to be lynched. He's either scum or a dangerously foolish townie.

Again, I still don't like this idea that Yos is pro-town. Nobody has given

any

convincing reason, and it seems like the "good player equals town" fallacy. In addition, I've actually found Yos a bit borderline - his actual analysis of players has been fairly lacking, and while his strategic and tactical arguments are certainly helpful, they're a lot easier for scum to fake.

Right now, I'd say that Skruffs, ShyGuy, Opie and VanDamien are the most pro-town, with perhaps Thesp rounding out the bottom of my list. VanDamien is there pretty much entirely for his "game-breaking" idea, which seemed rather genuine, while most of the rest just have a sort of "genuine air" to their posts.

Yosarian is near the top of my list, too, along with Nocmen (who's looking better recently, but who really seemed scummy at the beginning of the game). Max is up there, too, for several odd things he's said, including the most recent suggestion that we all have to change our votes to lynch Shy Guy because he's near the top of several lists. Anderson and Oman are around the middle of the road, because I haven't gotten much of a read on them at all.

I'm not going to post my list just yet, because I want to make sure I use it in such a way that it actually helps get my preferences lynched. Unfortunately, due to the nature of this STV system, voting can have some rather unpredictable results. I realise this might sound like manipulation, but I'll gladly explain any discrepancies, should they arise, and I would in fact encourage everyone to vote this way, rather than just listing preferences.

I will, however, give you my preliminary list, just so you know where I'm at right now. I might still re-evaluate this (especially Thesp, who seems somewhat pro-town but who I'm not sure I trust my read on).

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
Andersonw
Oman
Thesp
VanDamien
Opie
ShyGuy
Skruffs

[Sarcastro]

No, I'd agree that you and Ecto are fairly unlikely to be scum together. However, I'm not just advocating Ecto's lynch because I think he's scum, but also because if he is not scum, he's dangerous to the town.

This is also a good place to note that unfortunately, there's no way for me to revise my opinion of you after lynching Ecto, as there would be in most games. So even if I knew that you and Ecto absolutely could not be scum together, if I felt that there was still a strong chance that one of you is scum, I would still have to put you both near the top, even knowing that I was lynching a townie.

In addition, I admit that you probably aren't the second most scummy person in the game. But you do seem slightly scummy to me, and I really want to make sure that you don't end up in the last few players, especially because it seems like a lot of people want you to be for no good reason. This could be a bit of a scum gambit (everyone try to get Yos into the final two), but it's more likely just "Yos is a good, helpful player, so he must be town". That mindset can still be dangerous, though, if you are scum. Again, I feel a bit like I'm just picking on you because you're a good player, but I just can't see myself being confident that you're pro-town, even if I didn't already find you a bit scummy.

[Sarcastro]

Sweet zombie Jesus, Ectomancer, are you listening to yourself? You're acting like a complete idiot. You ignored my entire explanation of how your plan is terrible

even if you're town

. Now you're demanding that nobody change their ballots at all, because the game would currently proceed in a way you like? Get your head out of your ass. I haven't even submitted a ballot that properly reflects my suspicions yet, and you want to deny me that right

just because

?

Seriously, Ectomancer, you have no goddamn idea what you're talking about, and it's really getting on my nerves.

[Sarcastro]

Seriously, Ectomancer, you have no goddamn idea what you're talking about, and it's really getting on my nerves.

That's too bad. Scum.

Oh, clever. I don't agree with your blatantly anti-town play, so I'm scum.

Why are you so sure that the people currently left alive at the end are all town? Do you even know who they would be? I don't (the lists have changed since Skruffs analysed them).

Is this another thing about probability? Because given any two players, it is almost as likely that at least one of them is scum (43.75%) than that they are both town (56.25%). That's not even taking into consideration that scum are able to manipulate their votes a lot more effectively than the town are.

So yeah, if you're town, you're being an idiot. And of course, if you're scum (which looks even more likely to me now), you might already know that the current configuration of votes would give you a win.

Do you actually expect anyone to take you seriously, Ecto? You're not making any sense at all.

Here's my real list now (I decided not to change anything after all):

Code: Select all

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
ShyGuy
Skruffs

[Sarcastro]

Ecto, stop being foolish. Random lists do

not

give the town the best chance at winning any more than random lynches do in regular games. The whole point of the game is to

hunt for the scum

, not to roll the dice and hope that we win. Even if we

did

have a better chance that way, I still wouldn't want to, because it

removes the entire point of the game

. It would suck all the fun and all the challenge out.

In any case, this isn't even relevant, because

the lists aren't random

. My list was not random, it was copied from ShyGuy at the last minute because I needed a list. All that does is make ShyGuy's (also not random) vote worth more. Your list isn't random, either; it's based on Yos's list, which is also not random. Again, if you're town and Yos is scum, you've put the town in a terrible position.

All you're saying is that you like the lists people have right now. Why on earth should I use a list that in my opinion

makes the scum more likely to win

when I could change it to a better list? Just because you prefer me to have a list I consider inferior? Think about what you're saying.

Of course, I'm also rather amused that you're the one threatening people. As long as you're Yos's list-clone, you can't even follow through on your threat unless Yos does. So you have to choose which one of your ludicrously anti-town schemes to stick to. This should be interesting.

[Sarcastro]

Sarcastro...why should I not put you near the top for what seems to me as you going to set things up so you will have crap logic for making a ballot benficial to you and your scum buddys?

I have no idea what you're attempting to say. What did I do that you think is scummy?

[Sarcastro]

Sarc: Bah. Still really no bad vibes from him, but it seems like he's, well, wrong about a lot of stuff. Could you explain why you have Skruffs at the bottom of your list, Sarc? Also, you have VanDamien somewhat low on your list (fourth from bottom); what do you think about him, specifically?

Ugh, I'm not great at explaining why I think people are pro-town. With VD it's simple - I thought his idea of a game-breaking strategy was sincere. He sounded like he thought it was possible and a good idea, which makes him seem rather pro-town. It's not a sure thing, of course, and he's been fairly middle-of-the-road otherwise.

With Skruffs (as well as ShyGuy and Opie), it's just a general consistent feeling of... sincerity? For Skruffs, I think his second post after replacing in had a particularly good vibe, and although his suggestion of lynching the most pro-town players early was definitely bizarre, I think I understood what he was trying to say, and it almost makes him seem more pro-town in a weird way.

Anyone can make good points against Ecto, Shy Guy.

Did you ever stop to think that maybe there's a

reason

for this?

That's not townie, that's someone looking for an easy way to look townie.

So you're admitting that criticising your ideas looks pro-town?

I literally laughed when Sarcastro asked how I could threaten anyone while copying Yosarian2. I laughed because he is clearly feeling threatened, and his last posts, rather than sounding townie, sound like scum falling apart.

Ecto... are you trolling me? In a game thread? I "sound like scum falling apart"? Why? Because I criticised you and your terrible ideas?

Are you even putting any thought into your responses? I'm arguing against what you're saying and your best comeback is that you're laughing at me. That's terrific, Ecto, could you explain why it's so funny? Because as far as I can tell, you're just avoiding actually defending your ideas. Instead, all you're doing is sitting around and insulting me for not agreeing with you.

Grow up and start playing properly. If you think I'm scum, explain why. If you disagree with my criticisms of your ideas, explain why. Insults and illogical statements are not acceptable substitutes for contribution.

[Sarcastro]

Wow, Ecto. I don't even know how to respond to that. Are you trying to troll me or are you just delusional?

You keep calling me scum, but you haven't given anything resembling a reason for why. You say my actions speak for themselves, but as far as I can tell, nobody else in the game agrees with you.

You don't need to give me a "straight up fight [I] could 'win'". All I'm doing is arguing against you and criticising your ideas and arguments (not that you're very willing to post any since I started doing so). I'm not sure how you think mafia is played, but refusing to respond properly to anything I say only makes you look bad.

I don't really care what people who've played with you before think, Ecto, unless they're willing to explain your bizarre, anti-town behaviour. Are you trying to say that what you're doing is a strategy designed to get me to react a certain way if I'm scum? If you're going to make that argument, go ahead and make it, but don't just smugly state that you know I'm scum and that you don't need to explain it to anyone. I don't see how it could possibly be construed as pro-town to try to mystify your reasoning this way.

Seriously, Ecto. Make a real argument or stop talking. It's unfortunate that this game doesn't allow us to just lynch you and get on with the intelligent conversation tomorrow.

[Sarcastro]

You really cant stop responding can you? It's like a disease.

No, Ecto, I can't stop responding, because you're behaving in such a ridiculous fashion that I feel like I can't let you get away with it. Yeah, I should probably just start ignoring you, but what can I say? I have a compulsive need to point it out to people when they're acting like idiots.

FYI, trying to make it seem "personal" with your troll comments? Really a weak attempt to blunt my statements.

I'm not trying to make it "personal", and I'm not calling you a troll as an ad hominem attack. That's just really what it feels like: you're making illogical, nonsensical statements for what seems like the sole purpose of aggravating me. I'd love for you to prove me wrong, but you've consistently refused to explain yourself.

I know how mafia is played, and looking bad yourself doesn't come into it. You find scum. They will reveal themselves through their actions, and

you

continue to do so. That's how you win Mafia.

Explain yourself, Ecto. You just keep saying the same things over and over again, and none of it makes any sense. You haven't found any scum at all. Not only have you totally abandoned your responsibilities by proxying your vote to Yos, you're now repeatedly declaring that I'm scum for no reason at all. Until you do, it looks like simple "OMGUS". Going on about how people are scum in the least convincing manner possible and for no discernable reason is not how you win mafia. In case you haven't noticed, nobody else has picked up on whatever super-secret scumtells you think I've committed.

I'm afraid I wont provide you with a blueprint on how to look less scummy. You'll have to figure that out on your own. It is probably too late for you now though, even if I did explain it to you. You've already made the mistakes.

Are you kidding? Is your argument really that explaining why I'm scummy would help me act less scummy, so it's better to just refuse to explain yourself at all? In case you haven't noticed, that's not how mafia works. You have to tell people why someone is scummy. Even saying "it's a gut feeling" is better than actively refusing the explain yourself while comdemning someone as loudly possible.

What mistakes have I made, Ecto? How can you possibly expect

anyone

to take you seriously? Do you think you're being productive? Do you think that you're actually being at all useful to the town? Do you think that your ridiculous statements are convincing

anyone

?

This is insane. It's like arguing with a brick wall, except that it's a particularly stupid brick wall that keeps insulting me randomly. I really should just learn to ignore you.

By the way, I'd appreciate someone else coming in and explaining to Ecto just how illogical he's being, because I get the feeling that no matter how simply and clearly I lay it out, he's going to refuse to accept anything I say, no matter how obviously true.

[Sarcastro]

Insults are flowing one direction in this exchange my friend. It is very frustrating being scum, having someone peg you, and being able to do nothing about it, Im sure.

Scumtell.

How can "it's frustrating being scum" be a scumtell? I think what you're trying to say is that only scum would react in a frustrated manner at what you're doing, which makes no sense. Pretend for a moment that you're a townie being subjected to your ridiculous claims? How would you react? Probably the same way I'm reacting - getting very fed up with your idiocy.

Continuing to try to make this into something personal, when the sentiments are only coming from you.

Scumtell.

I'm trying to make it into something personal? How? Is it that I'm trying to explain why your ideas and arguments are fallacious and unhelpful? Is it that I'm accusing you of repeating the same garbage over and over with the sole result of getting me more and more annoyed with your blatantly anti-town behaviour?

Please, Ecto, explain how I'm trying to make this personal.

Attempting to manipulate the balloting.

Scumtell.

Wow.

Voting for whom I want to vote

is manipulating the balloting? Why is a set of votes that actually reflects my preferences "manipulation" while a set of votes I put up as quickly as possible is not? Why do you get to set the deadline after which any changes count as "manipulation"? Why, when I've made it clear that I respect your mafia abilities about as much as those of a ham sandwich, would you think it's scummy that I refuse to take (deliberately anti-town) orders from you?

While I'm glad you've at least bothered to make up a few implausible "scumtells", I have to say that it's still not a lot better than "Sarc is scum because I say so".

I'd like to point out that I find it absolutely hilarious that you've now changed your ballot after saying that any ballot changes are "manipulations". Of course, I know that you only did so because you don't want to have to think for yourself, but why don't you have a problem with Yosarian changing his ballot?

Your blind dedication to him is still extremely disturbing. No matter what you say, you didn't pick him randomly. No matter what anybody else says, you seem to take everything as evidence that Yosarian is to be trusted. Why, Ecto? Your insistence is almost dogmatic, and looks more like a case of wishful thinking than anything (assuming, of course, that you're town, which is looking less and less likely to me).

Again, Ecto, I'd really appreciate it if you started playing properly. You could start by making a reasonable, logical case against me instead of acting like a lunatic.

Once again, people, it'd be nice if someone could explain to Ecto that simply yelling that I'm scum for no discernable reason is not good play, regardless of his alignment.

[Sarcastro]

It is very frustrating being scum, having someone peg you, and being able to do nothing about it, Im sure.

You know, the more I think about it, the more this makes me think you're just projecting.

[Sarcastro]

Ecto, are you kidding? Criticising your play is not the same as making it personal. I'm not sure how you could possibly construe "Make a real argument or stop talking" as an ad hominem attack. If I say that you're acting like a fool, it's because

your ideas and arguments are bad

. Is it an insult? In a certain sense, yes, but it's a justified one, because I'm criticising your play. The only thing in that list that comes close to being an ad hominem attack is when I compared you to a "particularly stupid" brick wall, but my intent was to criticise your stubborn refusal to think logically.

By the way, even if they were ad hominem attacks, why exactly do you think that only scum would make them? That's a very questionable assertion.

Your case against me is laughable. "Read him" is not a valid explanation, because if someone is asking, it should be apparent that they personally don't find anything scummy about me. I find it hard to believe that you can't see how ridiculous you're acting.

We know that your ballot was changed to reflect Yosarian's ballot. What I want to know is why you don't have a problem with Yos changing his ballot. You keep glossing over this, as well as all other issues regarding your unjustified trust in Yos.

Again, your ideas of "manipulation" are absurd. Why is voting for the people I think are scum manipulation? This is not fundamentally different from any other game of mafia - the town needs to hunt the scum and update their votes to do so. And yet you seem to be of the opinion that we'd all just be better off sticking with our random votes all game. The scum are

always

better-equipped to manipulate the voting, and that's why one of the ways of catching them is to notice them doing it. Yelling out "nobody touch the ballots, we'll just hope that we happen to have a winning lynch based on our first random reactions" doesn't help anything. It eliminates the town's advantage while not even being guaranteed to eliminate the scum's (the scum are probably already voting in a way that's advantageous to them). It's completely and utterly foolish, and even if it weren't, it would destroy the entire point of the game and turn it into a coinflip.

So yeah, your ideas are bad. You have no logical reasoning behind your assertions. You're unable to back up your accusations with evidence. Are you really telling me you

don't see any of this

?

Please, Ecto. Ask anyone in the game. Ask Yos. Ask whoever you want. There's a reason nobody but you is taking anything you say seriously.

[Sarcastro]

Nocmen, could you explain what I did before that's scummy enough to cancel out what you feel is a pro-town action? If you've made a case that I've missed, feel free to point it out.

Also, could you go into a bit more detail regarding Yosarian? You say you'll keep him in the middle, but he's still fairly close to the bottom, and you gave a rather mixed review of his scumminess.

[Sarcastro]

Ectomancer's rolling the die messes with my mind. I'd found him fairly suspicious because I thought he didn't pick at random, even though I initially got a pro-town read on him. Now that he has officially and actually picked at random, I'm perplexed. I'll probably think on it and try to vote again before March 3.

I don't think it really changes much. His non-random choosing of Yos isn't the only thing he's doing that I don't like (the fact that he's even doing this "pledging" thing at all, for one). Besides, this doesn't prove that his "pledge" of Yos was always random - it seems just as likely to me that he felt like he was under pressure, decided to take a risk, and got really lucky (I wonder what he would have done had it landed on me).

Anyway, I've already made it clear that I think all this stuff regarding randomness and probability is bad play. Ectomancer should be scum-hunting (no, Ecto, declaring that I'm scum without any explanation is not scum-hunting), not just hoping to get lucky and win.

Okay, now that that's out of the way, I suppose I can try out Thesp's suggestion to ignore Ectomancer, though I can't make any promises.

Sarc: what kind of person, sorry fool believes that you agreee totally with the ballot before yours?

Max, are you missing something here? I never agreed with Shy Guy's ballot. I posted it because I realised it was almost the deadline, so I did the first thing I could think of that would allow me to post a valid ballot on time - I quoted Shy Guy's and quickly replaced my name with his. I made it very clear from the very start that that was

all

I was doing, and that I had absolutely no intention to leave it like that for any large amount of time. I have since changed it and, as you can see, I disagree with Shy Guy on many counts.

What exactly is the problem here?

[Sarcastro]

Sorry, Thesp, I just can't ignore Ecto (especially when he's practically the only one posting).

Yes, I knew that you would doubt even a 1 in 12 chance. I suppose that I arranged that random roll somehow?

Don't create a straw man, Ecto. I never said it wasn't random. I said that you got lucky. My point was that the fact that Yosarian is

now

a random selection does not change the fact that he was not random before.

re: Sarcatro - continue following inaccurate analogies and you'll be chasing yourself all over the place. This game is 100% win or 100% lose.
Now, in the interest of you being more specific, exactly which gambit of mine do you suppose is a bad hedge bet? I'll show where the analogy falls apart for you.

Yes, you clearly do need to be refreshed on exactly what I was referring to.

You think for some bizarre reason that because Yos statistically has a 75% chance of being town, it is therefore advantageous to give him two votes. Think about this for a moment. How much benefit does the town gain from Yostown having another vote? Conversely, how much benefit do the scum gain from Yosscum having another vote?

Let's assume for a moment that you really are town and you're doing this because you honestly believe that it helps the town's chances. So first of all, that means that by giving your vote to Yos, the town isn't really gaining in the absolute number of votes. The ratio is still 3:1. If Yos is scum, conversely, the ratio becomes 2:1. Right off the bat, your strategy looks very risky.

There are other factors. Admittedly, yes, there is the potential benefit of increased town coordination, but how much of an advantage is that, really? And does it cancel out the increased coordination between your vote and Yos's that the scum also get if he's scum?

Finally, there's the fact that scum can generally take better advantage of their votes than the town can due to the information imbalance, so that makes the 2:1 ratio look even more in the scum's favour. To the point where combined with a decent level of scum play, the game is fairly close to in the bag for the scum. Not a guaranteed win, but getting close. Meanwhile, if Yos is town, all you're doing is giving the town a little bit more coordination.

That's where the analogy comes in. Yes, it's more likely that Yos is town and that you're giving the town an advantage, just as it's more likely that you'll win the $11. But in the not extremely-unlikely situation where Yos is scum, you're giving the scum a

huge

advantage, just as if you lose the bet, you lose $10.

So do you still not see it, Ecto? Your strategy just doesn't make sense. If you really are town, please reconsider it.

[Sarcastro]

I should point out that, as I've said before, I agree with Thesp about VD. I think that for me, at least, it had to do with the fact that VD didn't seem to be putting a lot of thought into his post. He basically said "oh, this is something I was thinking about, I'm not sure it would work, more on this later". It didn't feel like it was meant to look pro-town, it felt like VD was just throwing out an idea he had but hadn't thought about too much.

[Sarcastro]

Well, it seems we're making at least a little bit of progress, Ecto. I still think you're missing my main point, however. The issue is not so much that having your ballot the same as someone else's is bad. There's nothing wrong with having a ballot that's similar to or the same as someone else's if that ballot truly reflects your suspicions.

What I have a problem with is your idea that somehow copying Yos's ballot

for the sake of copying it

is a good thing. You're not saying "I agree with all of Yos's suspicions, so I'm going to submit the same ballot" but rather "I want to copy someone's ballot randomly, and I happen to have chosen Yos". If you did the former, I wouldn't have a problem with it (well, okay, I would have a problem with it, but it would be an entirely different problem).

So no, I don't think people need to change their ballots for the sake of keeping them different, just as I don't think people should change them for the sake of making them more similar. People should use their ballots the same way they would their vote in a regular game: to try to lynch the people they think are scum.

That said, I don't have a problem with people taking others' ballots into account, of course. If someone doesn't like who ends up in the final three, then I don't have a problem with them changing their ballot to try to get someone else in there (in principle, at least). Like I've said before, any attempt to constrain what people do is more likely to help the scum than the town, because it makes it significantly harder for the town to catch scum.

Anyway, I don't think my previous post was any different from my others in tone, besides that I tried to be a bit friendly toward the end in the hopes that it might convince you to actually think about my argument. If there was a change in the tone you perceived, it seems more likely to me that it had more to do with your perception of my "tone" than my actual one.

If you want a direct answer to how we should determine our ballots, here it is: just rank people in the way that, in your opinion, gives the best chance of lynching scum. Not based on probability or any such nonsense - based on scumhunting, based on your opinions of players, based on self-preservation, even. It's not significantly different from a vote in a regular game; it's just more complex.

[Sarcastro]

Like you, Nocmen? You still haven't answered my questions from earlier.

If you're concerned about people trying to slip under the radar, well, don't do it yourself. Posting some lame pseudo-contribution like "There are lots of people lurking, but I don't know whether they're scum or town" is entirely unhelpful.

[Sarcastro]

Shy Guy, I don't want to answer for Skruffs, but I would assume based on his high ranking of you on his ballot that his main objection to making it to the final two would be that you would be the other personal in the final two. If he believes you to be scum, it wouldn't make much sense for him to help you get to the final two only to see you win as scum.

That said, I believe you both to be pro-town, and wouldn't mind you and Skruffs as the final two (then again, I wouldn't mind you and Opie, either). However, I must say that your insistence on reciprocity with Skruffs strikes me as odd. Why is it so important that he put you at the bottom of his list? If you're going to make the final two anyway, and you have the power to get Skruffs there with you (note that I haven't looked at the potential voting results in detail to see if this is actually the case, but assuming that it is), why would you only do so if Skruffs makes an essentially meaningless gesture (since you'd get to the bottom two anyway)? I suppose I can understand if you just want it for insurance reasons, so to speak, in case other people's vote changes would move you up, but is this the only reason?

[Sarcastro]

Why? You have Skruffs pretty far down your list, if not quite as far as Opie.

[Sarcastro]

Ugh, but you

do

have one of your own. Explain, Ectomancer, exactly why we are better off with another copy of Yos's ballot than with your ballot. Obviously you believe that your ballot better reflects the people who are scum, so why exactly is it preferable to lock yourself into supporting Yos's ballot?

[Sarcastro]

I've already explained this. I think your play is dangerously anti-town, even if you're not actually scum, and I have my concerns about Yos as well. This is especially true because if he really is scum, he's the most dangerous, due to the extra ballot you're giving him.

[Sarcastro]

Ecto, my list was made before it was apparent that you'd be lynched first. And I have noted that I've found Yos mildly scummy. If it looks like a guarantee that you'll be lynched first, though, I'll probably reconsider my placement of Yos, perhaps moving him down a couple spots. I don't think it'll ultimately make a huge difference, though.

[Sarcastro]

Ugh, this is starting to get complicated.

To be honest, I don't mind Ecto's suggestion. Perhaps it's just because there are exactly four players I feel I have pro-town reads on, so moving the next-to-bottom two to the bottom two doesn't bug me much.

Thesp's analysis of Shy Guy worries me a bit, though. I really felt that Shy Guy was town before, but his weird attempt at a bargain with Skruffs just seems, well, weird. He did provide some justification for it, but I'm wondering if I wouldn't prefer Opie and Skruffs or VD and Skruffs (or Opie and VD, for that matter). Any of those three combinations for the final three is fine with me (as is any combination of one of them with me, but I don't think that's going to happen). If that's not possible, Shy Guy could be substituted for one of them.

I'm not going to change my vote yet, because I don't want to screw up people who are in the middle of some kind of analysis, but I think I'm going to move Shy Guy up a couple spots pretty soon. Of course, Opie and Shy Guy in the final two is still good, so I don't want to move Shy Guy up if it would cause anyone but Skruffs or VD to move into the final two.

I'm still worried about Yos. I don't like how he's getting so far when nobody seems to be willing to go out on a limb and say they actually have a pro-town read on him. It feels like people are just putting him near the bottom by default, and under no circumstances should he be in the final two. I'd also like to point out to both Shy Guy and Skruffs that if you guys had Yos closer to the top, it would probably help Skruffs make it futher.

[Sarcastro]

Shy Guy, I've made it clear multiple times why I think VD is town. The fact that you

keep

saying Thesp and I haven't justified thinking he's pro-town when you've said even

less

about Yos seems rather unfair.

I realise that Thesp didn't make a comprehensive argument or anything for why you're scum, but just the general points he made made me re-evaluate you a little bit. I have a tendency to be rather stubborn about my evaluations of players - once I started thinking about it, your play did seem rather consistent with what I

might

expect from scum. The point is not that I've suddenly found you scummy but rather that I don't feel confident in my previous pro-town evaluation of you. You're not scummy, you're just borderline. That's why I'd strongly prefer the final two to be any two of Skruffs, Opie and VD, since these are the three players I really feel like I have pro-town reads on.

I think it would be helpful at this point for everyone to clearly state which two/three/four players they'd be most happy with in the bottom two.

[Sarcastro]

Shy Guy, I'm sorry, but you're really starting to annoy me. Why are you so obsessed with questioning my pro-town read on VD? I've explained it as well as I can - what he was suggesting would obviously have benefitted the town if it were possible. Therefore, I'm pretty confident that if he truly believed it was possible, he would not have suggested it as scum. So the question is whether or not he truly believed it was possible. This is a judgment call, and I find it kind of ridiculous that you're not willing to just take my word for it that he sounded to me like he believed what he was saying. No, I can't explain it much better than that, and I sympathise completely with Thesp when he says that he also has trouble doing so. Suffice it to say that VD sounded more like a townie obviously suggesting something than scum suggesting something he knows won't work in order to seem helpful. What the hell more do you want?

Code: Select all

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
Shy Guy
VanDamien
opie
Skruffs

I think people need to start moving their votes. Specifically putting Skruffs, Opie and VD below Shy Guy and Yos.

[Sarcastro]

Yeah, but it wasn't possible. It never could have been, really. And it seems bizzare for you and Thesp to take one weak stratagy post and use it as proof that someone is pro-town, dispite the fact that they've done very little this game and almost eveything else they have done looks scummy.

Yeah, Yos, except that I was the first person to actually point out that it was logically impossible. You didn't seem to immediately realise that VD's idea couldn't work, so why do you find it so surprising that I think VD didn't either?

I'm very pleased that Ecto has finally come around, and it's started me thinking on something else. Right now Ecto has a ballot I like quite a lot (except for Max being at the bottom, but Max'll be lynched early anyway, so whatever). So why is Ecto at the top of my list? I mean, I still find him kind of scummy (though the dangerous townie bit is obviously gone now), but if he's lynched before the final two anyway, what does it matter? It actually makes more sense for me to help Ecto stick around so that his votes for Opie and Skruffs are useful, rather than help a more pro-town person who has lower-down selections I like less.

[Sarcastro]

No, Shy Guy, you're the one being absurd. I'm not asking you to take my word for it that he's pro-town. I'm asking you to take my word for it when I say that I believe VD's action looked pro-town to me. Seriously, why is this so difficult? I realise that you want to poke and prod and try to understand exactly why, but I've articulated it as well as I can and it seems like you're still refusing to accept that I could

possibly

have found VD pro-town.

Shy Guy, criticising Ectomancer for doing the reasonable thing and actually using his vote properly is ridiculously anti-town. I don't care if he committed to it, he committed to trying to win the game, too, and if he's town I want him to bloody well do everything in his power to help. Holding him to doing something anti-town that he promised to do is just absurd.

[Sarcastro]

Shy Guy, you're still missing the point. Your reductio ad absurdum isn't valid here. I'm not just saying "take my word for it that I have good reasons for my suspicions". I've explained as best I can why I believe VD is pro-town. The problem is that you keep asking for more, to a ridiculous point. No, I can't explain

precisely which words he wrote in which way that made it seem like he was saying it in the way I believe he was saying it

. Why the hell would you expect me to be able to? I'm not asking you to assume that I'm town, just to stop assuming that Thesp and I are lying. And yes, that's what it seems like you're doing. You can make the exact same argument to dismiss

any

suspicion - "You might be scum, so your suspicion is invalid". It's stupid - obviously the entire point is to take that person's suspicion at face value

assuming they're town

. It doesn't require you to actually assume they're town for game purposes.

If Thesp and I aren't giving a good enough explanation to convince you, then oh well, too bad for us. But don't act like somehow the fact that you don't agree with us makes it extremely likely that we're lying. I could just as easily criticise your vague, unconvincing reasons for believing that Yos is town (far weaker than the one I gave for VD, in my opinion, if more numerous).

As for Ecto - well, who do you think his scumbuddies are, then? Who is he trying to benefit? I don't care if Ecto is scum - if he helps me get the people I want into the final two, that's a good enough reason to keep him around longer. Yes, you can make the argument that if he's scum, the way he's changing his vote will help the scum, but that's not really good enough for me. First of all, there's no guarantee that he's scum. I'm not willing to re-evaluate my positions on the people I think are most pro-town just because Ecto might be scum. Second, even if he is helping scumbuddies live longer, I doubt that his vote guarantees they get into the final two. Maybe Max is his scumbuddy and he's trying to start a last-ditch effort to get him into the final two. If that's the case, what's wrong with taking advantage of his low votes on Skruffs and Opie?

The more you post, Shy Guy, the more I think you're scum. You've started sounding extremely desperate in the last couple days. Your focus on the relatively unimportant issue of VD is odd, to say the least, and now your criticism of Ectomancer is, too be frank, blatantly anti-town.

Does anybody who's better at vote analysis than I am want to tell me whether or not Shy Guy would still make it to the final two? I am increasingly worried about his being there.

[Sarcastro]

Hey, Yos, stop being scum.

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Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
Shy Guy
Oman
Ectomancer
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
Skruffs

[Sarcastro]

I don't think so, Yos. I doubt Stoofer was lying when he told us the set-up. As far as I know, yours is the only scumgroup.

[Sarcastro]

Interesting fact - I did not talk to either of my scumbuddies at all during the day. I'm not sure if Nocmen and Skruffs ever spoke to each other, though.

To be honest, I feel like we won in the end by luck more than anything. I mean, any number of tiny voteshifts could have changed the game completely.

I have to say that several townies made it kind of easy on me. My arguments with Ecto and Shy Guy were completely real, and as far as I can judge, I would have made them even had I been town. The same goes for my warnings about Yos.

That said, I of course have to give credit to Yos for figuring out I was scum by the end of the game. Of course, at that point I didn't care, because as long as he didn't think Skruffs was my partner, it didn't matter much.

Shy Guy, part of the reason that I got so frustrated with your constant questioning about VD was that you completely overlooked the fact that I had given absolutely

no

real reasons for why you, Skruffs, and Opie were pro-town. The whole time I just felt like telling you to ask me about Skruffs or Opie instead, but of course that wouldn't have been a great strategy.

Credit to my buddies, too, especially Skruffs.

I think that if something like this is run again, it should definitely include some night actions or other powers. As I told Yos, I would rather have played as an SK with a kill than part of a three-person mafia without one.

[Sarcastro]

Also, why'd you steal my hat, Stoofer?