Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Ectomancer]

/confirm

[Ectomancer]

Also, max, why do you think andersonw is clearly scum?

I'm sorry, but are you seriously asking Max to explain why he said someone was "clearly scum" in the

first post of the game

?

Yes, I am asking questions a lot this game because I can. Why would you doubt this claim?

I don't get it. Are you joking? Because you sound like you're serious, and I don't understand how you can ask a serious question about a random vote(list) in the first post of the game. What possible reason could Max give for thinking Anderson is scum? "I'm scum and I know that Anderson is as well?"

Allow Max to defend himself. Also cease your attempt to squelch information. I am interested in Max's response. In a game where you attempt to determine guilt from innocence based upon the interactions of other players, understanding that 2 players have a history, and an inkling iof what that history may be is useful information to have when making an sssessment. I view Nocmen's question as a valid attempt to move beyond the random stage.
What is your relationship to Max, Sarcastro?

[Ectomancer]

Ecto: Why do you think that me asking Max a simple question would link people together so much?

You didn't ask a simple question, you asked him for his reason for singling out andersonw as scum. Either he made the comment randomly (unlikely in my estimation), or he did it for a reason. A reason implies history and the explanation of it would allow me to take that into consideration when analyzing interactions between the two of them. I have different interactions with people I know in real life on this site, as opposed to people I only "know" from playing games here, or don't know at all. Battlemage is (or used to be) a good example. I've played so many games with him, that I don't react at all the same way as someone who hasn't. Earwig is another. I know him in real life, and so know him very well. What some find scummy in him , I find to be Earwig being normal.

Knowing about the relationships between players allows you to make better judgements.

If you do not believe this, why then

would

you ask Max about his comment on andersonw? If you were asking because you were trying to determine whether his comment was suspicious, what are you wanting to get from his response that would allow you to make that determination?

[Ectomancer]

I tentatively suspect that Ectomancer is town because of his apparently sincere attempt to discern the allignments of others and frustration with Sarc when he interefered.

Yosarian2, why did you feel the need to respond to my question directed at opie?

Actually, I was talking about

relationships

between other players in order to have a baseline by which to judge their interactions. A technical point maybe, but a definite difference, as I would not expect the answer to give me

alignment

information.

[Ectomancer]

Can anyone explain why is Yosarian2 at the bottom of everyone's list?

I'm pretty sure it's because most people are doing their ballots by alphabetical order.

My opinion on the strategy discussed so far is that it would be a good idea to come to a consensus on the most scummy and least scummy players, because as someone stated earlier, if we do our own ballots, it will be easier for the mafia to manipulate them.

Do as you wish. I'll construct my own ballot, my way. Call it a double blind, as I feel a process by which we collectively agree on the most and least scummy is equally open to manipulation.

[Ectomancer]

I put some thought to it and with the current political season adding inspiration, I have an interesting way we could do the ballots. Let's talk about the Pro's and Con's, but here's what I had in mind.

Without using [code}, we could discuss what our ballots will look like and why.
Based upon someone else's ballot and their explanation, we can choose to back a player and their list whom we believe to be town. They begin become a Delegate for the balloting and whoever pledged to them will submit an identical ballot to theirs. The more pledges someone gets, the more powerful they become.

The transparency in having us discuss possible ballots beforehand, plus the historical evidence we will have of who pledged to whom and what the ballots were should at least give this method real evidence to work on in the long run.

[Ectomancer]

[Ecto, what would happen if we all pledged to someone, and then sort of all just didn't all of a sudden? What if just one person went against everything? The main problem with your idea is it requires way too much coordination, if we can't get people together for a plan needing 2 or 3 people, how can we get 12 working?

Then of course you would just be individual delegates. This idea doesnt require that everyone participate (though they will in their own right just by playing the game).

It is not difficult to implement. I, for example, could simply pledge to vote Yosarian's ballot. Before the deadline, I just copy/paste Yosarian's ballot and submit it as my own.

If someone decides to back out, so what? It is an action that can be called into question later, one way or another.

If I paraphrased your reply, Nocmen, it might read something like this: Gee Ecto, that sounds way too hard for us to do. Maybe we should just drop it?
I'm not liking the lack of a pioneering spirit.


Putting my money where my mouth is, this Yosarian thing is somewhat interesting. I can see why he ended up at the bottom of the list, and I have to say that it really is a somewhat random method of selecting a townsperson. Probability states that, if truly random, I have a greater chance of Yosarian being town than scum. By a corrollary, by giving my vote to Yosarian, I also have a greater chance of town being control of the lynch than scum.

pledge Yosarian2

[Ectomancer]

In the interest of being fully disclosed, here is my personal list:

Sarcastro
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
springlullaby
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
Shy Guy
Oman
Yosarian2

[Ectomancer]

Shy Guy, you may feel unnerved, but can you refute the logic?
Mathematically, there are more town than scum in a given game. Therefore, if you take a random sampling of the players in this game, you are more likely to choose a town member than scum.
The lists were compiled from the primary list generated by the mod, in alphabetical order. It was done that way, because alphabetically is a standard practice.
Assuming that the mod did a random.org for roles, then the probability spread across that list remains standard, giving no single position more likelyhood of being scum (or town) than any other.
Yosarian happened to be at the bottom of that list. At this stage of the game, I, and others it appears to me from the evidence we have, are inclined to move players

up

the list as they appear scummy to us, rather than

down

the list. Perhaps after a night's events, that may change, but

today

the proclivity is to concentrate on the scummy.

So, we have Yosarian2, by all rights chosen randomly as the most townie from the entire list, simply because *scum* are represented by a higher position on the list and *town* are represented by the bottom of the list. Statistics tell me that he is

more likely to be town

than he is to be scum.
So my question is to you, why sir do you protest? Can you refute the logic? As this event has occurred naturally, and without the contrivance of any of the players, is it not to be taken advantage of, and in fact, attempting to oppose this without proposing an equally favorable statistical probability is anti-town?

[Ectomancer]

@Andersonw - No, its not moot because not just any of us was listed as the most townie, only one of us was. That person was chosen at random, not in a manner manipulatable by us, the players. Probability states that Yosarian2 is more likely to be town. The point about Day 0 is that nothing has happened. After night new information is gained. We submit new ballots every day. Did you think we only submit one ballot for the entire game?

@Yosarian - I posted my list. The fact that you have not posted yours yet lends further support to my belief in relying on the probability inherent in a town/scum makeup at the beginning of a game. I know for certain that I didn't allow your posted list to influence my decision in following this path. I will admit though, since you are unnerved, if <name withheld> were in your seat, or perhaps <name withheld>, I might be alot more hesitant to blindly follow their list, even if I were told 100% that they were town.

Remember folks, I was not the one who suggested that we might break this ballot using math. I simply came up with the most statistically probable method for that ballot to be controlled by

town

. I do not believe that, beyond that, we can somehow use a pattern of voting that would somehow systematically unearth the scum.

I will concur that Yosarian doesn't have enough information generated yet to really make a good list, and that if everyone simply jumped onboard right now, there would be reduced opportunity for that information to materialize.

[Ectomancer]

Hmm, maybe a misconception is there that I didn't realize. Yosarian doesnt have my pledge

forever

, just today (unless I give it back again)

[Ectomancer]

Code: Select all

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy 

[Ectomancer]

EBWOP

Code: Select all

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[Ectomancer]

Ahhh, I see. I missed a crucial element:

(except that the thread will remain locked)

That is fine actually. My method of determining how best to have a townie control the outcome is perfectly valid and I trust your judgement. Your breakdown made sense to me, though I felt a scummy vibe from Sarcastro.

Ballot is posted, on with the show

[Ectomancer]

Code: Select all

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy 
Yosarian2

@Nocmen - I did my analysis of events, and my vote is more likely to be supporting a townie. Because we both have the same ballot, unless scum team up to counter it, town is also more likely to have the greatest influence over the end result. How is your alphabetical ballot less lazy?

[Ectomancer]

I find it odd Ectomancer didn't realize the game didn't have nights. I'm unsure how a self-educating player could not realize this. The rules are rather clear, to me. Then again, springlullaby also seemed to have missed them... It seems to me that springlullaby's error was more geniune, as he is new, and though I, a new player, caught it, I could see it being missed. Ectomancer's I doubt the authenticity of, somehow.

Actually, I find the exact reverse of your conclusion. I would believe that a new person would be keen to reading over everything in a game. I almost never do anymore, unless something like a deadline comes up, then I'll go see what rules that mod is using. Otherwise, I assume its standard and start playing.

[Ectomancer]

Yeah, Shy Guy. When everyone thinks he's town, it makes me think he's not so town.

Irrefutable logic, I must say.

[Ectomancer]

The whole "smart/experienced/good player equals town" fallacy is extremely dangerous in this game. This is also why Ectomancer's blind dedication to Yos strikes me the wrong way.

Watch yourself there mis-representing my actions. I explained thoroughly my reasoning for going with Yosarian's choices, and I dont recall smart/experienced/or good being a part of any of it. The two <name withhelds> I mentioned I regard as mentally handicapped, which is not the same as saying I think Yos is smart or experienced or good, but I certainly dont consider him to be mentally handicapped either.

[Ectomancer]

Oh opie, you really cant refute that by my logic, I am doing the best I can to ensure that a townie controls the lynch order as much as possible. Random selection chose Yosarian. I'm not changing my mind. My vote will be changing to match Yosarian's (with his name added and not mine) only when he changes it.
This effectively grants Yosarian the privilege of a double ballot.
Yosarian ended up on your high town list.
If you disagree with those you regard most as town, whose opinion do you believe to be faulty in those matters? Which of you should revise their list to ensure a good lynch?

[Ectomancer]

Random selection chose Yosarian. I'm not changing my mind. My vote will be changing to match Yosarian's (with his name added and not mine) only when he changes it.

I'm not sure that playing by way of dice is very wise or helpful. Not only is there a >25% chance of him being scum (from your position, giving scum

4 ballots

, which likely outright loses us the game), there's also the possibility that he could be incorrect (sorry Yosarian2), and there's also the fact that your actions here (in-?)deliberately obfuscate your own motives, making it more difficult for your alignment to be discerned, which is anti-town if you are town (you want to be divined as town), and anti-town if you are scum (it makes it hard for us to find you as scum).

It's an unusual setup and this is the way I chose to play. Taking the inverse of your probability, I have a > 74% chance of him being town. That gives town a stronger position to work from, and those are pretty good odds. I would go all in in poker every time with those odds.
As for Yosarian possibly being incorrect...and I am more of an expert at picking scum, how? This argument would only hold water if you believe that I am a better scum picker. Otherwise, at worst it is a wash, and right or wrong, I'd prefer town all be pulling in the same direction.
As for my alignment, and how town feels about it, I don't care about that either. My only goal is to have the bottom 2 players be town. That's it. I can be lynched along the way and it makes little difference.
As for town gathering my opinions, I provided my list prior to Yosarian posting his, and so have given an isolated opinion. I am still reading everyone else and will be attempting to sway the balloting according to my opinion, but if I hope to change my own ballot, I will have to convince Yosarian2 as to the wisdom of my words.
I dont plan to obfescute anything. If you would like my opinion on someone or something, I am more than happy to answer a direct question. I'll give unsolicited opinions, rest assured. If I see bullshit, Im calling it.

[Ectomancer]

If they are both town, ecto's play is still not very helpful.

*note to self, put ecto up top and drop yos a spot*

That's hilarious. "If they both are town" then Yosarian2 has 2 town votes and town controls them both. Exact numbers aside (which I never calculated, I just flipped Thesp's), it is still more likely that I am consolidating a townie ballot.

The beauty of this is, the one's arguing cant argue with the logic and have no idea what to do about it. Move Ecto up and Yosarian down? How is suddenly Yosarian more town in your eyes based upon my actions? Or, how does doing that counteract the move? I clearly believe you are just guessing and have just have no idea what to do. That is what makes it hilarious. I've chosen a path that gives me a reasonable probability of affecting town's chances in the positive, yet the clueless among us feel obliged to criticize.

[Ectomancer]

The beauty of this is, the one's arguing cant argue with the logic and have no idea what to do about it.

I guess I can't argue with your logic because, I must admit, I don't fully understand it.

Im sorry then, in that respect I do not mean to be a jerk. My position is one that evolved, admittedly, because I did not examine the rules until after the fact, and then roughly skimmed over them.
The basic premise is this:
1: We have to make a list today that will determine everyday after this.
2: People are trying to come up with a way to break this mathematically (which I dont believe is possible when you dont know which positions to weigh)

My own version of giving myself the best mathematical odds of winning is to go with the odds. Fate did that by placing Yosarian at the bottom of an alphabetical list that also happens to be a "most scum" to a "most town" list. Fair enough, that's random. 2 people subsequently left him at the bottom of their ballot, by virtue of habit, we tend to move people

up

a scum list, rather than down. That's a pretty good random selection, and also places him at the "most townie" slot, which is where you would want your townie you supported to be. Yosarian is a perfect storm.
(If you are still wondering about the math, there are more town than scum at the beginning of the game. Any random selection is statistically more probably a town member than scum, even leaving me out, they are still good odds in my favor)
So, placing my bets on a Yosarian townie, I'm also tying my ballot to him. This double gambit not only places him high on the town list, but makes him a "super delegate". Why? I think town needs to be in control of the ballot. I've already gambled that he is town, now this is the equivalent of going "all in" on Yosarian. (Yes, I play poker a moderate amount)

You are free to decide your own way of giving town the best shot of influencing the ballot. You could toss your cards all in with me on Yosarian too, or you could draw names randomly from a hat (that's actually a pretty good one), or you could form a coalition, or things could just fall as they have been (seriously, consider the names from a hat).
I'm sticking with my way. Good luck to us.

[Ectomancer]

Thank you for the explanation. I guess I see a couple of flaws/concerns in the plan. First, we need more than one townie to stick around to the end. I'm not sure if your plan accounts for who follows Yosarian2. Second, the scum will have night choices. What happens if Yosarian2 is night killed tonight?

Yes, we do. The closer we get to choosing 3 people at random, the odds are reduced as we remove people from the pool, assuming we got town the first time out. That means the plan cannot account for who follows Yosarian with the same favorable odds. Hence, my move to "double up" by also tying my ballot to Yosarian.
The second concern has been removed.

I understand your intial premise. That statistically Yosarian2 is pro-town. But I'm not sure if I follow your next step in logic, that the town will be best served by adopting his ballot.

I guess my question is, if you think Yosarian2 is pro-town then put him at the bottom of you list, but what advantage is it to adopt his ballot?

Im no longer pursuing anyone else to follow this idea (other than of their own accord). I think variety in the manner by which ballots are generated is a desirable trait. I'm particularly distrustful of mass bargained ballot lists. In my case, there is no bargaining at all. Whatever Yosarian decides to do, that's it. You may all place me at the top of the list if I veer from this course and place any ballot that is not in response and mimicking Yosarian's.
I still retain the right to influence his ballot with my arguments.

[Ectomancer]

it is still more likely that I am consolidating a townie ballot.

That's the thing - we don't know you actually chose Yosarian2 randomly. He could be a scumbuddy of yours, and you saw this moment as an opportunity to say he's randomly at the bottom (it's an

ex post facto

determination). Had you used dice tags and announced previous to that that you'd pledge your vote to whom the dice told you, that'd be one thing, but you left the human element in there, which I don't have a reason to trust in you.

Very true, but that's

your

problem. The solution was to solve

my

problem. You'll have to find a solution of your own.

[Ectomancer]

Oh the manipulators.

The only town thing to do is leave this exactly as it is. Let it run. The only people who know what we need to do are scum. Any manipulation to move people in and out, is just that, manipulation.

Heed these words.

[Ectomancer]

And you think that everyone

needs

to pledge to someone

No, I decided against that and stated that everyone should derive their own method of arriving at a ballot, including drawing names from a hat if necessary.

Bad Max.

[Ectomancer]

If he's not scum, he;s dangerous to the town. LOL


Max and Sarcastro are our scum BTW.

[Ectomancer]

Ecto, how do we know that you aren't saying that just because you know those near the bottom are scum?

Figure it out. I have faith that you can.

P.S. - Any new ballots submitted should move everyone who submits a new ballot after the recent result breakdown to the top. They can be right under me, I dont care, but changing your ballot at this point deserves a penalty, IE, you get moved up.

If you do that, you will prevent scum from making a move that put themselves in a better position. Their best hope is to position their

buddies

. That also means their buddies cant change

their

ballots, or suffer the same fate.
It binds scum. We have many more town, so binding a townie in such a manner isn't as big a deal.

[Ectomancer]

P.S. - Any new ballots submitted should move everyone who submits a new ballot after the recent result breakdown to the top. They can be right under me, I dont care, but changing your ballot at this point deserves a penalty, IE, you get moved up.

If you do that, you will prevent scum from making a move that put themselves in a better position. Their best hope is to position their

buddies

. That also means their buddies cant change

their

ballots, or suffer the same fate.
It binds scum. We have many more town, so binding a townie in such a manner isn't as big a deal.

That is absolutely insane. Are you literally threatening EVERYONE in the game that if they attempt to do ANY FURTHER scum hunting that they should be lynched???
I'm glad I have you at the top of my list.

Yep.

Only scum knows how the list needs to be maniplulated. The rest of you are just making a guess. The list is far more likely to be manipulated in a manner that benefits scum.

Leave it alone.

[Ectomancer]

You all have posted lists. Let it stand.

Scum must be in the final 2 to win.

Methinks there is much protesting right now because Scum is not there yet if the breakdown goes as projected earlier.

Let it run.

[Ectomancer]

Seriously, Ectomancer, you have no goddamn idea what you're talking about, and it's really getting on my nerves.

That's too bad. Scum.

[Ectomancer]

I think Ectomancer is a distraction.

It's quite simple Thesp. Ballots arrived at by various methods, and then left unmanipulated, period, allows town the best probability for a win. Random is in our favor. Unmanipulated is in our favor. Only one group is informed in this game, and it is the minority one. Their entire power lies in their ability to manipulate the ballots. Random is their enemy.

In point of fact, I would be equally happy to list our entire town in alphabetical order and then generate a random number list for the order in which to place them. You can scrap the entire current list if you like, I dont care.

But I certainly dont feel like giving Sarcastro time to "organize his list properly" now that he can see what the rest of you have done. Oh my gosh, but isn't it just terrible of me to say he shouldn't be allowed to do it? Or anyone else for that matter?

You want to redo the list? Random it up. I wont support any other form of manipulation (especially from Scumcastro)

[Ectomancer]

[Oh, clever. I don't agree with your blatantly anti-town play, so I'm scum.

You're scum because your PM says so, duh.

[Ectomancer]

Anyone can make good points against Ecto, Shy Guy. That's not townie, that's someone looking for an easy way to

look

townie. I literally laughed when Sarcastro asked how I could threaten anyone while copying Yosarian2. I laughed because he is clearly

feeling

threatened, and his last posts, rather than sounding townie, sound like scum falling apart.

Let's assume that the ballots were indeed locked, all except for two people. Thesp and Skruffs.

How would you change your ballots to influence the outcome, and why?

[Ectomancer]

I am laughing at you. You're scum. You cant help doing what you are doing, and saying what you are saying. Drives you crazy doesn't it? You could just not say anything, yet you just cant restrain yourself. And damnit, the guy wont even give you a straight up fight that you could "win".
Your actions speak for themselves Sarcastro, and the thing is, people who have played with me before know what your actions are saying, even if they have no idea what I am doing.
You should just focus on getting your scum buddies to the final 3, you wont make it yourself.

[Ectomancer]

You really cant stop responding can you? It's like a disease.

FYI, trying to make it seem "personal" with your troll comments? Really a weak attempt to blunt my statements.

I know how mafia is played, and looking bad yourself doesn't come into it. You find scum. They will reveal themselves through their actions, and

you

continue to do so. That's how you win Mafia.

I'm afraid I wont provide you with a blueprint on how to look less scummy. You'll have to figure that out on your own. It is probably too late for you now though, even if I did explain it to you. You've already made the mistakes.

[Ectomancer]

Insults are flowing one direction in this exchange my friend. It is very frustrating being scum, having someone peg you, and being able to do nothing about it, Im sure.

Scumtell.

Continuing to try to make this into something personal, when the sentiments are only coming from you.

Scumtell.

Attempting to manipulate the balloting.

Scumtell.

Im going to work right now, so I dont have time to continue.
Me running out of time on your scumtells...


Scumtell.

[Ectomancer]

Code: Select all

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[Ectomancer]

I think Opie should be in final two. I think Ecto should not.
I think I understand, now that I have done all that, why Shy Guy wanted to focus on the most townie players rather than scum; I believe that my earlier suspicions on Yosarian's badly worded (or at least badly interpreted) "Be suspicious of people changing their votes near deadline" was also aggravated by what I read as attempts, by you, to form a sort of communistic 'voting bloc' without actually going into WHO the voting bloc's ballots would be decided. The game is literally about a voting block; all of us voting each other. So trying to form a majority of the 12 we already have makes it a LOT easier for scum to win, especially if they are IN that voting block; ESPECIALLY if they are the LEADERS of that block. Since I have done all of that, I now understand the importance of the 'voting block' - so that even if someone DOES change their vote after march 3rd, they will at least have MORE resistance to go through.

Thank you for your support of one of my plays. You now apparently understand the concept of scum having to fight through a voting bloc. As I have no other information on this game (unlike a certain informed minority), with probability on my side, it makes entire sense for

me

to form a bloc on my own, and in a manner of my choosing.
Why do you think there was some rather vocal opposition from select players? Scum quickly realized that if the bloc formed randomly behind town, they would lose, and could do nothing about it. In addition, because town holds the higher percentage of population, the chances of randomly picking town were much greater.
Judging by reactions to Yosarian2 that I'm seeing, I picked correctly.

That's just healthy paranoia there. I think it's a good show of faith for someone who is trying to help the town to offer to be lynched first, to (if scum misleading town) to hinder mafia's chances of making it to final three and (if town) proving as such. Although we only get one shot, it would also make the most pro-town players focus on finding OTHER players rather than trying to explain themselves. (That's also what iffs me about Shy Guy's proposal towards me)

Sound like anyone you know? Some of us are already focused on finding OTHER players, and not bothering to defend ourselves.

I have a question for you. What good will it do you if a player turns up town upon death? You can't go back and alter your vote when you realize they were town and were

right

, or at least

truthful

in what they say.
In a normal mafia game, I could agree with you. In this game, you are using an invalid excuse to lynch someone that you yourself think looks "most townie".
Also, how does putting the "most townie" at the top of the lynch list prevent other pro-town players from having to explain themselves?
Or do you mean, whoever is most townie should simply accept that they are going to die, and should stop forcing other players to defend their vote on them? That way "pro-town" players wont be distracted by having to explain an illogical vote?


Full of holes Skruffs. Put scum at the top of your list, put town at the bottom. That's how you win. Stop trying to outguess the play. You only open the ballot to scum manipulation (though moving the "most townie" to the top of the list, and requesting that nobody even have to explain their vote is scummy manipulation in itself)

[Ectomancer]

The Mod was asked to clarify what he meant by the previous round, was that done in thread?

[Ectomancer]

All of you are inattentive fools (now that's a personal attack there Sarcastro).

My ballot was changed to reflect Yosarian's ballot, as I said it would be.

@opie - Sarcastro is scum. Keep him out of the bottom 6 or 7. Why is he scum? Read him. His only hope now is pushing his partners into the bottom. Keep him high enough in the balloting, and he wont be able to do that either.

If mafia are leading the current vote bloc, and are unwilling to be lynched for it, that results in three people being unaccounted for at the end of the game. A mafia who chooses the 'pro town' gambit can very well PUSH for two townies as final two, and simply work on the player to leave at final four to have him as slightly more town than the other two, and then change his own ballot to make one of hte other two go before him, and win. He doesn't have to account for other mafia members because HE's tryign to win.

A "pro-town" mafia player who agrees to be lynched first is making it IMMEASURABLY harder for himself to win; he has to get one of his BUDDIES to final two WITHOUT looking like that guy's buddy and while still being pro town. A pro town player who IS pro town only has to focus on ACTUALLY getting pro town playerse to final two - WHICH YOU yourself have said is easier to do.

That makes sense. The way you previously phrased it, you seemed to indicate that the

revelation

of him being town was important in some manner, and in a normal game you would be correct, but not in this one

as explained

.
But yes, you are right. It

should

be easier to keep scum out by putting other pro-town players in, than getting himself in.
However, you are wrong in one major aspect here. If the pro-town player is lynched first, their ballot goes to naught, as it is not counted at all.

Continuing to try to make this into something personal, when the sentiments are only coming from you.

Scumtell.

I'm trying to make it into something personal? How? Is it that I'm trying to explain why your ideas and arguments are fallacious and unhelpful? Is it that I'm accusing you of repeating the same garbage over and over with the sole result of getting me more and more annoyed with your blatantly anti-town behaviour?

Please, Ecto, explain how I'm trying to make this personal.

Now

this

is how you make me laugh.

You're acting like a complete idiot.

Get your head out of your ass.

Seriously, Ectomancer, you have no goddamn idea what you're talking about, and it's really getting on my nerves.

So yeah, if you're town, you're being an idiot.

Ecto, stop being foolish.

Ecto... are you trolling me?

Grow up and start playing properly.

Wow, Ecto. I don't even know how to respond to that. Are you trying to troll me or are you just delusional?

Seriously, Ecto. Make a real argument or stop talking.

No, Ecto, I can't stop responding, because you're behaving in such a ridiculous fashion

It's like arguing with a brick wall, except that it's a particularly stupid brick wall that keeps insulting me randomly.

Again, Ecto, I'd really appreciate it if you started playing properly. You could start by making a reasonable, logical case against me instead of acting like a lunatic.

Gosh, you are so right, nothing personal there at all. Not a single ad hominem attack. /sarcasm off

That quote string tells a story of frustrated scum falling apart. Town? I dont think so.

And

I know that tweaking the list will change the outcome of the game, but I don't have the time to figure out how,

so I'll leave it as it is for now.

Very Important Post - bolded for effect - and no, not because I think opie is scum. That bolded part is entirely key to a town win. 1 group knows how to manipulate the ballot properly. It will be better for

nobody

to have manipulated the ballot.

[Ectomancer]

Ecto - I don't know where to start. Hes pretty much gone from the person I see as the towniest to one of the scummiest over not much time. His ideas were pretty good before, but it seems that hes gone on a strong offensive after realizing that his scum team isn't going to win anymore.

Ludicrous statement. There has never been a time in this game where you could possibly suggest that a scum team has no chance of winning. Which gambit of Ectoscum do you suppose failed so catastrophically as to cause me to "give up"? Are you kidding me? Go read some Ectomancer games. I'm not stupid. An easygoing, rational, game mechanic posting (it's an active lurker move) Ectoscum could slide into a 3rd - 5th position

easily

in this game. From that position I can win this game as scum. No doubt in my mind.

Unless

my ability to manipulate the ballot is compromised by town blocs (if they are lucky enough to build a solid one), or random moves that screw up my balloting by removing this player in round 3 instead of round 4, or that player drops into the 2nd slot ahead of my guy, and changing my ballot doesn't help because, effectively, two votes for town on my guy got removed, because someone

else

got bumped one round earlier and his townie vote didn't count.
Focusing on one player as scum isn't going to help you at all. It doesn't matter whether you attack, or defend them. They will end up towards the middle of the pack as town attempts to hedge their bets. Whether high, or low, will depend upon their play, but they are unlikely to be in the top 3 or bottom 3.
That means I cant push a scum buddy into the bottom 3, nor can I push a townie into the top 3. The significance of either one is that the bottom 3 will determine the win, but the top 3 have almost no influence over that process.

The only claim that you might make to support the idea that I am scum, is if you said I am purposely choosing 2 townies (Sarcastro and Yosarian2) and forcing them into the middle of the pack by my play.
It doesn't take them out of play, but it should remove 2 townies from the possible players that will end up in the bottom 3.
That way, instead of town having a 9 in 12 shot of getting into one of those positions, they now have a 7 in 10 shot of getting into one. (Drop from 75% to 70%)


Yosarian was randomly chosen, not be me, but by an alphabetical list, and the fact the the first couple players posted it that way.
Sarcastro was chosen for his gameplay, and a way to hedge my bet on Yosarian2. Pick a townie to keep in, and pick a scumbag to keep out.

If I'm wrong about Sarcastro, he will still end up in the middle positions and retain a strong influence over the ballot.
It is unfortunate that Yosarian2 will probably also end up there, and not in the bottom 3. I've been happy with his reaction and his gameplay thus far, though I feel like he is walking on ice chips with his choice of words sometimes.

If you could prove to me that both Sarcastro and Yosarian2 are town, then I might be inclined to say I'm fucking this up keeping 2 townies out of the bottom 3. I dont think so. Sarcastro has triggered dozens of scumtells for me, scumtells that Im not interested in arguing. They are my personal toolchest, built over the last year playing this game. Perhaps it is his personal playstyle that has set off so many alarms, I concede that I haven't encountered him before. Still, read back up again, and see that he is destined for the middle anyhow. I cant put him in the top 3 with this playstyle, but I can keep him from winning, and that dear sirs, is the name of this game.

[Ectomancer]

Ectomancer: Why is Sarcastro fourth from last on your list, even after changing it after you made all of your posts saying he was scum?

I also don't understand what this part of your post means: "Still, read back up again, and see that he is destined for the middle anyhow. I cant put him in the top 3 with this playstyle, but I can keep him from winning, and that dear sirs, is the name of this game. "

Can't put him in the top 3 with this playstyle? Could you explain it better?


[offtopic] I've asked this question in one of my posts already, but it was ignored, so I'll ask it again. What do the "townsperson", "goon", "mafia scum" etc. mean?[/offtopic]

Im copying Yosarian's ballot as stated earlier. I've not wavered from that decision. It is part of my personal effort to create a town voting bloc. He was chosen (by my assertion, others dont believe me) at random simply because the original ballot was in alphabetical order. If I want to move someone else higher on my personal ballot, I have to convince Yosarian2 that they belong there.

[Ectomancer]

Ecto - The problem with random ballots is that they are too easy to manipulate - you are trying to go and play the odds here, and there is no way that I believe both Sarcastro and Yos are town. If you look at my ballot, its not hard to tell that Sarcastro is the third person on my list, behind you for what I have claimed, and Oman because it seems like he is avoiding this, and that he is only following others.

If you truly believe that, then I am successful in my endeavor, because by both of them gravitating towards the middle of the list, due to my play, I've kept one scum out of the crucial bottom 3. Since I comprise only 1/9 of town, but have found 1/3 of the scum, I've done MORE than my fair share of scum hunting here, and the rest of you are lax-jawed slackers.

[Ectomancer]

@Thesp - We all play the game our own way. You've played enough with me to know I try all types of styles (I think you have at least). I learn something from every one of them. It keeps the game interesting for me.

So, given an alphabetical list, order 1 at A and ascending as we go down the list:

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[Ectomancer]

And Yosarian2 it is.

[Ectomancer]

My code stays the same, since it was already set to Yosarian2.

Is that random enough for you Thesp? Or are you adamantly opposed to the fact that it turned up Yosarian2 again? If so, I'll chop my name and Yosarian2's name off the list, and do a dice 1d10 with the remaining names. (Had my name come up, I would have created my own ballot FYI)
My problem with chopping our names off, is that the odds are no longer in town favor. I would prefer to leave the ballot at Yosarian2, but if asked to do it, (by Thesp, not one of you other jerks), then I'll do another random dice and that result will be final.

[Ectomancer]

[quote="SarcastroI don't think it really changes much. His non-random choosing of Yos isn't the only thing he's doing that I don't like (the fact that he's even doing this "pledging" thing at all, for one). Besides, this doesn't prove that his "pledge" of Yos was always random - it seems just as likely to me that he felt like he was under pressure, decided to take a risk, and got really lucky (I wonder what he would have done had it landed on me).
[/quote]

Yes, I knew that you would doubt even a 1 in 12 chance. I suppose that I arranged that random roll somehow?

What does pressure matter to me? It doesn't matter where Im lynched or whether I'm town or scum. I'll influence this game regardless, and you wont know why I'm doing it, or what Im after to be able to counter it. Isn't that fun?

Had you turned up on the roll, I would have done as I stated and copied your ballot. Then I would have requested that town lynch you #1 and me #2 to completely negate your ballot except for 2 votes day 1 and 1 vote day 2. Why? That's how I'm playing.

[Ectomancer]

@Max - Sarcastro made it perfectly clear what he was doing. Not sure why you are going after him for that.

My

point is that we should force him to leave his ballot as it was. He's scum. I like his ballot

perfectly

as it is, exactly

because

he didnt make it.

[Ectomancer]

Ectomancer, I still don't see why random is good. Random can be manipulated by the scum, as stated many times before. Also, as sarcastro said, you doing this is like making a 10 dollar bet with 75 percent chance of making 11 dollars and 25 percent chance of losing everything.
Also, if you chop yosarian and your names off, the probability that town would win would still be the same because the probability of you or yosarian being mafia stays the same if it is random.

Random is the antithesis of manipulation. Did you read that before you wrote it?

re: Sarcatro - continue following inaccurate analogies and you'll be chasing yourself all over the place. This game is 100% win or 100% lose.
Now, in the interest of you being more specific, exactly which gambit of mine do you suppose is a bad hedge bet? I'll show where the analogy falls apart for you.

Re: Chopping names - You aren't very astute. Im town. Removing me does

not

retain the same probability of choosing town. I dont care if you don't know that I'm town. It is my math and my play here, not yours. I would have re-rolled at Thesp's behest, but I'm certainly not chopping any names, and definitely not 2 of my top 3 townies.
That's a bad argument andersonw. Were you planning on trying to inspire a chopped re-roll or something? Not going to happen.

[Ectomancer]

Had you turned up on the roll, I would have done as I stated and copied your ballot. Then I would have requested that town lynch you #1 and me #2 to completely negate your ballot except for 2 votes day 1 and 1 vote day 2. Why? That's how I'm playing.

...why?

I thought you made clear that you were copying my ballot partly because you trusted me. You would have really copied the ballot of a person you thought was scum? How could that have possibly helped the town?

Because Im doing what I said I would do. I copied your ballot because you were my random choice (by alphabetical order) and then by truly random. I feel good about your likely townhood (not that I trust you). Therefore I wasn't actively working against you. Sarcastro, I do not trust. I would keep my word and copy the random choice, but I would work against him to reduce the effect of both his ballot and mine.

...why?

That's my play. I'm free you see. No pressure, no worries of where I need to be, or how I look. If I remove 1 scum from the game, I've done my job. The rest of you do yours, and keep the other 2 out of the bottom 3.

If we are both town? So what? What guarantee can you give me that any player you pick is really scum and Sarcastro isn't? None.
I'm not going to get into the fear of "what if?". What if he is town? What if he is scum?

The thing is Yos, I could request that to happen, but we both know it wouldn't. Bets would be hedged. One of us would likely go in the top spot to minimize the effect of the double ballot (much as is happening right now), and the other will drift to the middle as not entirely trustworthy. So you see, the effect? It's a non-effect,

except

, if scum I've kept him from the bottom 3, yet again.

It's crowd psychology.

Watch the ripples though. Rocks beneath the surface disrupt the pattern, even if you can't see them on a calm surface. Watch as the town blocs are countered. Watch also as the random factor is limited. You can't influence random. There is a critical moment coming. Town must be in position and be prepared to strike.

[Ectomancer]

I forgot to mention Yos, I could care less if Im lynched first. My feeling is that scum being lynched first is remote in the extreme. It means a townie will go first. That means their ballot will go for naught. The only thing they will have is their voice and its influence. If they are playing "safe", they are useless. The only thing you are likely to get out of them is a desperate last minute defense (that usually sucks). I don't have a problem being that person and taking full advantage of not worrying about blowing my position on the ballot.

[Ectomancer]

@Sarcastro - If, as you say, coordination can only help scum, then why do you not support going completely random? Random is the antithesis of manipulation.

By your case, we should never have our ballot the same as someone else's in the event that they may be scum. Coordination of ballots of any kind is bad bad bad. (that part I agree with)

So, do you think the remarks concerning how the last rundown of the ballots occured, saying things like "So and so appeared in the bottom 3, we need to take that into account in our ballots", is an inherently scummy statement? (right now I dont recall who said it, but I dont think it was you)

FYI Sarcastro - That post was completely different than your others in tone. Why the change? I want to point out that your "tone" was such from the beginning, before you got into it with Ectomancer, so it has nothing to do with Ecto. (This isn't an attack, I want to know your reasoning)

How do you suggest town should go about determining our ballots, given your last statement? Because I believe it clearly says, nobody should have their ballot the same as someone else's, because double balloting helps scum more than it helps town. And that would be in any case at all, whether determined randomly as I have done, or via "detective work" that makes you think someone else is town.

Should people change their ballot on purpose if they find it matches someone else's? How about when it isn't

exact

, but you think you see a pattern where someone is trying to create a 90% double ballot with you?

[Ectomancer]

Here's my current ballot, if I had one of my own:

Nocmen
VanDamien
Skruffs
Sarcastro
Max
andersonw
Oman
opie
Shy Guy
Yosarian2
Thesp

[Ectomancer]

Ugh, but you

do

have one of your own. Explain, Ectomancer, exactly why we are better off with another copy of Yos's ballot than with your ballot. Obviously you believe that your ballot better reflects the people who are scum, so why exactly is it preferable to lock yourself into supporting Yos's ballot?

I've volunteered for the top slot, so does it matter really whose ballot I copy? Random is Yos2.

Haven't I told you what I planned to do, and then did it? I'll continue telling you and following through.

Here's a question to you: Why are both Yosarian2 and myself at the top of your list?

[Ectomancer]

I've already explained this. I think your play is dangerously anti-town, even if you're not actually scum, and I have my concerns about Yos as well. This is especially true because if he really is scum, he's the most dangerous, due to the extra ballot you're giving him.

Not true. With me at the top, Yos2 does not have an extra ballot.

So, why is he up top as well? What concerns other than my play?

[Ectomancer]

Ecto, my list was made before it was apparent that you'd be lynched first. And I have noted that I've found Yos mildly scummy. If it looks like a guarantee that you'll be lynched first, though, I'll probably reconsider my placement of Yos, perhaps moving him down a couple spots. I don't think it'll ultimately make a huge difference, though.

Fair enough.

[Ectomancer]

Ok mathematicians and graph wizards. Lets take a look at this idea and see if we can draw some groups together by forcing a play. I'd like to know whether we could force patterns to emerge, that might narrow our scum pool down.

Assumption #1: Scum has their list prepared properly. Oh, they might shift people around a bit, but in ways that wont affect the overall outcome.

Assumption #2: 2 of the scum are working together with their ballots to get the 3rd into the bottom 2. 1 of these 2 scum might also be working together with the 3rd scum to get the 1st scum into the bottom 3 as well.

Question: What would happen if we forced

everyone

to choose 2 completly different people that they believe to be town, to be in their bottom 2? If in the above equation, we labeled them scum #1, #2, and #3, they would need to change roles, so that #3 becomes #2, #2 becomes #1 and #1 becomes #3 (or reverse that).
That would create a pattern in our ballots that might be discernible.

Question #2: If the above act would create a pattern, would not doing it twice further refine that pattern?
Answer to Question #2: Yes, but not if Scum knows another will follow (or can arrange one).

Problem: This would only truly be effective if we ordered a lockdown on the bottom 2 candidates. If scum can change those later, they wont have to make sure their ballot is good again. They can slip someone else in to spoil the pattern, then slip their candidate back in again at the 11th hour.

Viable?

[Ectomancer]

Ludicrous statement. There has never been a time in this game where you could possibly suggest that a scum team has no chance of winning. Which gambit of Ectoscum do you suppose failed so catastrophically as to cause me to "give up"? Are you kidding me? Go read some Ectomancer games. I'm not stupid. An easygoing, rational, game mechanic posting (it's an active lurker move) Ectoscum could slide into a 3rd - 5th position

easily

in this game. From that position I can win this game as scum.

I remember you from Clue 2, where you were the last SK and was trying to do anything in your power to get a townie lynched so you and the last SK could fudge a win, although all options were lined against you. Inasmuch, I wouldn't expect you to 'give up', and I also know that you have no problem with pulling ludicrous gambits.

I think here you support my statement. It wasn't me that said I was giving up my cause as lost. I cant remember who I was responding to at the time, but saying that I gave up my cause as hopeless does not jive with my playstyle at all.
The point in this particular case, is that I wasn't even remotely in trouble at anytime to cause me to throw out the ideas and theories that I have. I could have a scummy motive to what I'm doing, sure (though as Yos has pointed out, I dont see how it would benefit Ectoscum). But attributing my actions to giving up? No.

[Ectomancer]

Your other points were hashed out later. I'll see your later responses to those when you catch up.

[Ectomancer]

I don't find Ectomancer's suggestion to be viable.

It was laid out in a straightforward manner. Do you have logic to back your offhanded opinion? Did you even try to work out the permutations?

[Ectomancer]

We dont want to do it twice.

Do you honestly believe that scum is holding out until the 11th hour? When the 11th hour is when we are [/i]most[/i] interested in altered ballots? I dont buy that arguement. Balloting has settled down, and we are experience very minor adjustments.

You clearly dont understand the idea, or the concept. Everyone chooses 2 different people

than their current bottom 2

.

Do you understand? I believe scum already has their buddies in place. The play backs my statement. The stigma of 11th hour vote changes also supports my statement.
So, if they already have buddies in the bottom, they would have to put the

other

buddy in the bottom. You would find a person near the bottom, putting a person who previously voted them near the bottom. Then, the other scum who also voted for the one near the bottom, will switch his vote to the other scum, so that he and the previous bottom scum are now voting together for the other partner. Do you see?

Let say it looks like this:


town
town
scum #1
town
scum #2
town
town
scum#3
town

Scum #1 and #2 have #3 at the bottom of their lists.
Now we force a change:

#1 now puts #2 at the bottom. #3 also puts #2 at the bottom.

That my friends makes a pattern in the static. Strings can be connected logically. It wont solve anything for us, but it will give us more than tripe. See below for why it still makes sense if scum wont cooperate.

If they dont, they will have to depend upon town to help them out by putting one of them in the bottom. It makes things harder on them. It also means they may have to hold off putting in their final ballot until the 11th hour, but as you said, nobody knows when exactly that might be, right? Makes it harder for scum yet again.

So yeah Andersonw and ShyGuy, I dont think you've actually looked at the idea, or maybe just didnt understand it.

[Ectomancer]

You all could just move me to the bottom and your job would be half done.

[Ectomancer]

Do you honestly believe that scum is holding out until the 11th hour? When the 11th hour is when we are [/i]most[/i] interested in altered ballots? I dont buy that arguement. Balloting has settled down, and we are experience very minor adjustments.

Personally, I think that one of the scum just did change his ballot; I'm increasingly thinking Thesp is probably scum. His last minute ballot change makes me even more convinced ShyGuy is town.

Hrmmm, he moved Shy Guy up. Still didn't affect anything? Ok, so that makes whoever is currently in the 3rd slot suspicious.
Im also thinking you are a bit suspicious yourself for bringing up 11th hour ballot changes when we haven't agreed to lock down (though I suggested it when it would actually have been useful)

Ok, so who currently would show up 3rd? And what position is Thesp currently in?

[Ectomancer]

Ecto's idea actually somewhat works. However, is it possible that he is doing this as a last minute desparate attempt?

I don't really feel safe putting Skruffs in the bottom 2 right now, especially over opie.

Also Skruffs, I noticed the same thing about andersonw. Not enough real discussion from him, sort of seems like hes just changing his ballot, trying to help him as he sees fit.

That would assume 3 things Nocmen.
1: That I am scum and
2: We dont yet have a scum partner in the bottom 3.
3: It is unlikely that we will get one us in with small vote changes.

Im paranoid. I tend to believe the other direction. That if scum isn't already in the bottom 2, they are in the bottom 3.

Now, of the possible actions, I would choose mine. If we assume either scenario could be equally possible (I think mine more), then we certainly need to shake things up if I am right. Though we

are

giving scum a 2nd opportunity should the other scenario be true, at least there is a decent chance they

still

wont be able to get into the bottom 2,

and

we have a pattern of voting and relationships to establish that might help us actually pinpoint scum.

[Ectomancer]

If we decide to change the 2 bottom townies, I'll replace them with a pair of my own, not connected to anyone elses. Fair enough?

[Ectomancer]

Also, just push the list up, so your current bottom 2 becomes 3 and 4. If done right, youve got your top 4 townies in the bottom 4, so all should be good.

[Ectomancer]

No, I said that I think scum are already in the bottom 2. At worst they are in the bottom 3. That doesn't mean bottom 3 is likely.
I also did not say to switch 3 and 4 to 1 and 2. I said choose 2 other townies to be in the bottom 2. People will choose for their own reasons, and I dont think it will always be 3 and 4.

[Ectomancer]

I think its too late as well. Here's hoping opie and Shyguy are town

[Ectomancer]

Also, Ectomancer, we might get caught by the deadline with our pants down -- what if half of us have switched and half haven't, and deadline hits? Such a patterned, wholesale rearrangement of ballots is something I do not support at this stage.

I think that would benefit town more than scum. Scum would have to weigh getting their ballot in vs waiting to see what everyone else does first.

[Ectomancer]

I'd like to replace ShyGu with Skruffs in the bottom 2.

[Ectomancer]

Not really. I'm working on an analysis of collaberation. It may also help reveal who

isn't

collaberating. Busy atm, hopefully I'll beat the deadline in time for it to be useful. I'll present some possible scum groups and why.

[Ectomancer]

Sarcastro - You will put Shy Guy higher up just because he annoys you? But I do see what you are getting at right here.

Shy Guy - Why have you waited until now to go on the initiative and start attacking people?

Ecto - If you really beleive that Skruffs should be in the bottom instead of Shy Guy, why are you not doing anything about it? Why are you keeping your votes where they are?

Right now I am most happy with opie in my bottom, and below that I would like to have Skruffs within the bottom 3, but I'm not sure anymore. Whether I keep Shy Guy where I have him right now...well, I really would like to hear him answer first.

At this junction, I can only concede yours, and everyone else's point. I left my damn evaluation at home, but of the possible collaborators, Yosarian2 falls into one of the groups. Hopefully the thread will still be open, or I'll have to redraw from freaking pattern of lines drawn by tying voting patterns together. I looked at who each person voted into each position of the bottom 2 (I also expanded to the bottom 3). I took our 4 most popular and saw who tied back, and then looked at how those people tied together themselves. It made for an interesting read. (If you dont understand exactly how I drew the connections, Im not a very good explainer.)

I can say this, Max isn't collaborating with anyone, and you all would do the town a service by moving him as far down your list as you can stomach. There is also (in my mind) a conspiracy by 1 group of collaborators to keep Max out. He likely has a good ballot.There are probably others I can say are standouts, but I have to get back home, or redraw.

[Ectomancer]

Code: Select all

Shy Guy
Oman
andersonw
Nocmen
Yosarian2
Sarcastro
VanDamien
Thesp
opie
Skruffs
Max

[Ectomancer]

You are indeed a polarizing figure. That was the first major pattern I saw when examining voting trends and relationships between people who put the same people in the top 3 slots, and also in the bottom 3 slots. I thought I had found something significant, but really, it boils down to people either trust you or dont, and no in between.
I also looked at which players had the most disparity between their vote on a player, and the reciprocating vote from the same player. Most were similiar. If a player put you at the top of their list, well you put them at the top of yours. There were 4 or 5 glaring differences. I didnt quite know what to make of them. Im still planning to use them later in conjunction with the 3 possible scum groupings that came out of analyzing the top 3 votes and relationships (who voted for the same person, then how they voted for each other) and then also the bottom 3.
Most of the people who came up in groups are at the top or middle of my ballot.

As for why I changed my ballot at the last? My dear Shy Guy, you are mistaken if you say my pledging system was my one true love. I also love my random probabilities and tossing a rock into scum play if they

do

have things as they like right now. My only regret is that I felt I would have slipped back down towards the middle by now, and had my ballot be effective for at least a couple days.

Still, I believe there is good reason for the polarity on you, and I'd prefer a less polarizing figure to be one of our town representatives.

Does anyone not agree that the polarity is an issue?

[Ectomancer]

EBWOP: That 2nd paragraph is meant to a 3rd person "you" and not at ShyGuy personally. As I said, I wont have my notes until I get home tonight, and I can look again to see which players had the large disparity in reciprocal votes.

[Ectomancer]

Its not fair to hold me to "nobody change their votes" when you guys refused to go along with any of my schemes involving a lockdown. My committment to my pledge had no sway on anyone. I was due for first or second lynch. What else could I do but change my tactics? Stay the course you say? Did you see it convincing anyone?

[Ectomancer]

Ok, so here's some things I noticed:

First off, the differential: This is a disparity between how 2 players rank each other

Oman and andersonw - #2 and #12
Oman and Max - #2 and #9

Opie and Nocmen - #2 and #12
Opie and Sarcastro - #3 and #10

Skruffs and Shyguy - #2 and #10
Skruffs and Yosarian2 #3 and #11

Next was my look at who would end up as town. I looked at the bottom 4 players for interactions. Lets see if I can put this into readable format.
What I did, was look at who put each person into the bottom 2. Then I looked to see who

else

that put that person into the bottom 2 they also voted for as bottom 2. Make sense?

ShyGuy

Anderson - also voted Yosarian2
Nocmen - also voted opie
opie - also voted Yosarian2
Sarcasto
Yosarian2

Yosarian2

Andersonw - also voted ShyGuy
Oman - also voted andersonw
opie - also voted Shyguy
ShyGuy
Skruffs - also voted opie

opie

Nocmen - also voted for shyguy
Shyguy
Skruffs

Andersonw

Oman

So anyhow, I need to take the interactions shown, and then compare against the disparity comparison up above, to see if anything shakes out. I also need to go back and look at the top 3 from that snapshot of ballots, though it wasn't as important as the bottom.


Now, for Max. He isnt tied into that bottom 2 mess (maybe simply because his boys arent in the bottom 2). But anyhow, lets look at something interesting:
Max has ShyGuy way up high. Now Shyguy himself didnt reciprocate positions, which is a bit unusual the way this group has played. Ok. Now, let's look at some ShyGuy supporters who

did

maneuver to protect their boy.
First we have Andersonw who has ShyGuy as #1 townie, conversely, he has Max at #1 scum. Coincidence? We also have Oman with Max listed as #2 scum. Looking at Oman's #1 townie? Why it is Andersonw. Concidence?

I think this is strong evidence of a ShyGuy/Andersonw/Oman scumgroup.

Anyhow, I'll keep looking at things.

[Ectomancer]

For additional input (Yosarian2

might

be involved, by I think he is a townie being used)

Yosarian2 has had ShyGuy as #1 townie for some time. Guess who is supporting Yosarian2 as the other guy in their bottom 2?

Andersonw and Oman.

[Ectomancer]

All is quiet. Interesting.

[Ectomancer]

Good game scum.

FU to town for trusting Sarcastro.