Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Thesp]

Confirmed - will check in more later.

[Thesp]

Ohmy goodness, I'm so sorry I've forgotten about this game! Give me a day to catch up, and I'll get crackin'.

[Thesp]

My apologies - I had a death in the family, and literally forgot about this game. (I was on mafiascum a couple of times, thinking, "All my games are in night, how sad!") Here ae my thoughts, in a disjointed fashion for my own later reference.

Funny thing Sarcasto, I heard the same thing. But I can't remember who I heard it from. Who was it again?

I like you.

Putting my money where my mouth is, this Yosarian thing is somewhat interesting. I can see why he ended up at the bottom of the list, and I have to say that it really is a somewhat random method of selecting a townsperson. Probability states that, if truly random, I have a greater chance of Yosarian being town than scum. By a corrollary, by giving my vote to Yosarian, I also have a greater chance of town being control of the lynch than scum.
pledge Yosarian2

I dislike this on so, so many levels, the least of which is my distrust of Yosarian2.


Ecto looks slightly town, though I waffle on that with his later posts. Nocmen seems scummy - defensive towards Sarcastro, tossing suspicion on people. I like Shy Guy. Yosarian2 is questionable. Attacks opie - likely not partners. Sarc is not scum with Ectomancer. Van Damien is a good guy. Max is off - why grumpy?

I'm putting the finishing touches on a mathemtical algorithm that will help more accurately predict who the scum are based on where they might rank each other in their lists. Don't expect to see the numbers or anything, just the results, and not until near the beginning of March. No sense in letting the scum know what I'm looking for.

Oman notes Nocmen/Max interaction. andersonw is looking for consensus. Skruffs is more likely to be town.

That is all for now.

Code: Select all

Max
Yosarian2
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[Thesp]

It feels like I'm about to get lynched here just because a few people thought I looked pro-town early on, and that's basically insane.

I understand why you might feel that way reading over responses so far, but it seemed to me that during significant conversations between several players, you chose to focus (largely to the exclusion of others) on a conversation with Shy Guy which I thought didn't really say much of anything significant. I thought you were deliberately avoiding interaction with other players.

Random selection chose Yosarian. I'm not changing my mind. My vote will be changing to match Yosarian's (with his name added and not mine) only when he changes it.

I'm not sure that playing by way of dice is very wise or helpful. Not only is there a >25% chance of him being scum (from your position, giving scum

4 ballots

, which likely outright loses us the game), there's also the possibility that he could be incorrect (sorry Yosarian2), and there's also the fact that your actions here (in-?)deliberately obfuscate your own motives, making it more difficult for your alignment to be discerned, which is anti-town if you are town (you want to be divined as town), and anti-town if you are scum (it makes it hard for us to find you as scum).

However: why is VanDamien a good guy

I think his attempts to break the game are genuine. His "find pro-town players" strategy he proposed resonates strongly with the theory I had coming into the game, which I think is the optimal strategy, and thought it would be more likely to be proposed by town.

[Thesp]

Shy Guy, are you an alt?

[Thesp]

Thesp and ectomancer's percentage talk is odd.
Why would you use 25% and 75%?
1st of all, there's only 11 roles outside of ectomancer's, not 12, and he doesn't include himself as scum (whether he is or not), so yosarian's chances are actually 27.3%. (Big whoop)

Ah, this is correct, and what I was trying to peg, I just didn't do the exact numbers.

it is still more likely that I am consolidating a townie ballot.

That's the thing - we don't know you actually chose Yosarian2 randomly. He could be a scumbuddy of yours, and you saw this moment as an opportunity to say he's randomly at the bottom (it's an

ex post facto

determination). Had you used dice tags and announced previous to that that you'd pledge your vote to whom the dice told you, that'd be one thing, but you left the human element in there, which I don't have a reason to trust in you.

By the way, Thesp, could you explain why you think Skruffs is pro-town?

I liked his first post, but as I'm re-reading it in light of this question, I'm finding reason to be wary of it. Hrm.

Thesp, I don't see what you see on VanDamien, can you explain more clearly?

I'm not sure how I could be more clear than my last response:

I think his attempts to break the game are genuine. His "find pro-town players" strategy he proposed resonates strongly with the theory I had coming into the game, which I think is the optimal strategy, and thought it would be more likely to be proposed by town.

We desperately need a method of forming consensus, even if it is simply consensus on the top couple names of the list.

I'm not sure how important this is. I'm pondering on it.

[Thesp]

I've not forgotten about this game - I'll try to get a good, substantive post in tomorrow. I think Ectomancer is a distraction.

Where did Shy Guy go?

[Thesp]

I'm sorry I haven't been giving this game the attention it deserves, especially since it could be over in 2 days. Let's get cracking.

I'm having a crisis of faith on Max. I think there's a strong possibility he's scum. At the same time, he's got me listed so low, the longer he's around, the longer my vote matters more, and so there's some self-preservation aspect there.

Hrmph.

Max moves me up later since I haven't posted in forever, so this is moot.

Ecto and Max aren't scum together.

I'm having lingering fears about Sarcastro.

Random is in our favor. Unmanipulated is in our favor. Only one group is informed in this game, and it is the minority one.

This is wrong. I am certain that given 9 random ballots, scum could use their 3 in a subtle fashion to win. We aren't uninformed any longer, we're just

less

informed. We know a bit about each other player, and have reasonable guesses on everyone because of it. If we all are halfway decent better at finding than the scum are at hiding, we have a decent shot at winning. Random doesn't help, it is inimical to the process of finding, and means the mafia are the only coordinated ones. (It looks like Yosarian2 hits on this as well.)

In point of fact, I would be equally happy to list our entire town in alphabetical order and then generate a random number list for the order in which to place them. You can scrap the entire current list if you like, I dont care.

I would prefer you pledge your vote to someone at random, rather than pseudo-random. (Of course, I'd rather you not pledge your vote at all

and that you actually played the game

, but that's just me. (It's not fair to say you're not playing the game, because you are scumhunting, I just have serious meta-concerns about your voting strategy.))

It's also worth noting that VanDamien is currently (and strangly) quite low on Thesp's list, no reasons given.

This is quite wrong, I've been asked twice for my reasons and given them.

Thesp: You said you're now a bit more wary of Skruffs, but you still have him second-from-bottom on your list. Could you be a little more specific? I'm also wondering why you have VanDamien so low on your list.

The first time I read his first large post, it felt pro-town, for whatever reason. Looking back, I'm not sure why I felt that way, especially since it's what scum might want from the town. (Perhaps that's why I thought it was mroe likely to come from a townie, ironically.) As for VanDamien,

I think his attempts to break the game are genuine. His "find pro-town players" strategy he proposed resonates strongly with the theory I had coming into the game, which I think is the optimal strategy, and thought it would be more likely to be proposed by town.

He feels to me like he's very genuine in his attempts to break the game. Scum feign this appearance when it suits them, but I think he really wanted to "solve" the game.

I'm happy I didn't get lynched, I am trying to think really carefully about the bottom of my list -- I know I am town, and if you guys keep not lynching me, then if I just pick the right other player to keep to the last, then the town wins!

This quote irks me, as does the general tenor of the rest of his post. I'm also a bit torn on my latent distrust of alts - I know it shouldn't factor into my decisions (as he was an alt before the game started), and I don't

think

it does, but I can't say for certain. In any case, I don't like the buddy-buddyness between Yos2 and Shy Guy. At all.

If I were to guess right now based on interactions and votes, I'd say the scum are Yosarian2, Shy Guy and Max. (Shy Guy's addition is a bit of a recent thing, but my voting analysis concerns me.) I fear I'm very wrong on this, though, and you'll notice my ballot isn't beholden to this theory.

Sarcastro, can you address other people for a little bit? I'd like to see you away from the tunnel-vision of Ectomancer. Seriously - ignore him for a little while, I want to see what you think of other players.

I'm intrigued by Skruff's thoughts on opie, but I don't agree with opie being likely town. He seems to praise attempts to break the game, while simultaneously heap skepticism upon them.

Yosarian was randomly chosen, not be me, but by an alphabetical list, and the fact the the first couple players posted it that way.

You keep saying his choice was random, when in fact it was not. Ranom would be using dice tags, or some other publically verifiable manner which is outside of your control. What's to say you wouldn't have decided to pledge to the person at the top of the list if his name was aaaaaYosarian2?

I really want to see VanDamien as one of the last 2, as I think he's least likely to be scum, far and away.

Code: Select all

Max 
Nocmen 
Yosarian2 
andersonw 
Sarcastro 
Shy Guy
Ectomancer 
opie 
Skruffs 
Oman 
VanDamien

[Thesp]

Now, thesp - how can you see VanDamien as town when he has not said much at all in this game and the way it is played? Same thing for Oman, hwo can you put him second to bottom when he hasn't said much new?

Do all town players say lots? They both seem way more likely to be town than lots of players in this game.

@Thesp - We all play the game our own way. You've played enough with me to know I try all types of styles (I think you have at least). I learn something from every one of them. It keeps the game interesting for me.

So, given an alphabetical list, order 1 at A and ascending as we go down the list:

Original Roll String: 1d12 (STATIC)

1 12-Sided Dice: (12) = 12

This is way, way too funny. =P

[Thesp]

My code stays the same, since it was already set to Yosarian2.

Is that random enough for you Thesp? Or are you adamantly opposed to the fact that it turned up Yosarian2 again? If so, I'll chop my name and Yosarian2's name off the list, and do a dice 1d10 with the remaining names. (Had my name come up, I would have created my own ballot FYI)
My problem with chopping our names off, is that the odds are no longer in town favor. I would prefer to leave the ballot at Yosarian2, but if asked to do it, (by Thesp, not one of you other jerks), then I'll do another random dice and that result will be final.

While I have problems with the pledging you're doing, I no longer believe Yosarian2 to be potentially non-random.

[Thesp]

Okay, now that that's out of the way, I suppose I can try out Thesp's suggestion to ignore Ectomancer, though I can't make any promises.

Thanks! I think it's especially helpful to see your interaction with other players, which Ectomancer drowns out.

As for VanDamien,

I think his attempts to break the game are genuine. His "find pro-town players" strategy he proposed resonates strongly with the theory I had coming into the game, which I think is the optimal strategy, and thought it would be more likely to be proposed by town.

Wait...what? It was shy guy who proposed that we try to find pro-town players, not Van Damien. Van Damien's only stratagy contrabution was to wonder if there was any way to break the game, and then later to decide that there was not.

Shy Guy's post felt more calculated, and VanDamien's felt much more natural.

Thesp, I guess you were clear, but I don't understand your motivation for believing what you do. I see what you are saying, but I am completely unconvinced. It is as if you said "I think the sun is a ripe banana, because it is yellow and has spots." That is exceedingly clear -- but I still see the position as unjustified. I'd like more explanation for why you think VanDamien's proposal of an "auto-win" system leads you to believe that it is an authentic one.

Thesp, could you respond to this?

I don't follow your analogy. I think the manner in which he spoke, whether it's his word selection, the manner in which he presented himself, etc. feels far more natural to me. I could try to analyze sentence structure and the like, but I don't think it'd be worthwhile. If you're not convinced, I'm sorry, but I'm not sure what else I could put forth that would convince you at this point. Sorry.

[Thesp]

Code: Select all

Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Yosarian2
andersonw
Ectomancer
Sarcastro
opie
Skruffs
Oman
VanDamien

Moving Shy Guy to he top, moving Sarcastro down one.

And I don't feel that what I am doing is at all active lurking, I'm already very sure that Ecto is scum, and I'm trying to get discussion towards the other problems that I found when making my ballot regarding who is scum, and this could make or break the game for the town, especially because we don't know when the deadline is. It could be tomorrow.

Who else do you think is scum? Ignore Ecto for a moment - who else is do you think is scum? (I agree with Yosarian2 that I find it very unlikely he's scum, and the only reason I'm not sinking him lower is my fear that Yosarian2 is, and Ecto has his ballot.)

I find Thesp's latest posts disingenuous. His voting seemed to move me and Yosarian2 up for little reason, and when I asked him about it, he responded to the other part of my post, but not the part about me & Yosarian2 vs. me & opie vs. me & Skruffs.

I didn't think it worth commenting on. After all, when I've been unable to reproduce precisely why I feel VanDamien's approach was more townlike than yours (though note that Sarcastro has seen the same), you've skewered me for it. Why bother here?

I'd be very suspicious from now on if someone drastically alters their ballot without very good reasoning, and would likely alter my ballot to countermand theirs.

Does this set up red flags for anyone else?

He's strenuously arguing for the status quo

largely because he's in the bottom two

, and is outright threatening towards anyone who is uncomfortable with it.

This is precisely the sort of thing that mafia would want to do in this position, if they're one of the final two.

I can understand that town might make the same comment, but it coupled with creeping uncertainty of Shy Guy, this worries me greatly. I'm moving him to the top of my list with prejudice - I don't think Shy Guy should be in the bottom two, and his insistence that things not change worries me greatly, especially as seen here:

In general, I am very comfortable and pleased with my ballot, and especially since I think it is bad in general to change late (and will be suspicious of those who make significant changes late) I am going to leave it for now.

This is a thinly veiled threat towards anyone who thinks Shy Guy should not be in the last two, as is this:

Something that bugs me is that if scum don't have someone making it into the final two right now, they have no reason NOT to be frantically changing their ballots -- Day 0 is our only time for voting and impacting the game, and it now could end any time; it doesn't matter how scummy we find the ballot changers, if they don't change their ballots and there isn't scum in the bottom two (currently that means opie would have to be scum -- or me but I'm not) they lose. So the fact that there hasn't been a massive flurry worries me, it indicates the scum might be winning.

It poisons the well, and it suggests not only that if there's anyone who challenges the status quo, they are likely to be scum, but that it should cement the idea that Shy Guy is town. I don't like it one bit.

(For the record, I have recently discovered that I despise this game concept and would not play in another such - I need a few results from dead people to determine ties between players.)

I still strongly, strongly support VanDamien as one of the last two (as I trust him way the heck more than any of you), and would recommend people give it serious consideration.

[Thesp]

I actually like what Ectomancer is suggesting, but time worries me right now - I'm afraid too many people would stall.

[Thesp]

Do you honestly believe that scum is holding out until the 11th hour? When the 11th hour is when we are [/i]most[/i] interested in altered ballots? I dont buy that arguement. Balloting has settled down, and we are experience very minor adjustments.

Personally, I think that one of the scum just did change his ballot; I'm increasingly thinking Thesp is probably scum. His last minute ballot change makes me even more convinced ShyGuy is town.

I'm a bit more convinced in my suspicion of Yosarian2/Shy Guy.

[Thesp]

I'm moving thesp up until we see the algorithm he promised

I didn't actually have one, I was just trying to make the scum second-guess themselves. I toyed with one for a little bit before deciding it wasn't really feasible. Sorry to get your hopes up.

[Thesp]

I'm a bit more convinced in my suspicion of Yosarian2/Shy Guy.

I think he's town, and I think you're scum, so therefore I must be scum with him?

I'm not sure if that's scum logic or just the kind of typical paranoid thinking you get in situations without many hard facts, but either way, it's not helpful.

I admit there may be some paranoia, but I've been suspicious of you before now, and with my growing suspicion of Shy Guy, founded or not, coupled with my fear that you're his partner, your statement reinforces that suspicion.

Shy Guy, why do you think Yosarian2 is town? Yosarian2, why do you think Shy Guy is town?

[Thesp]

Boo, boo!

I saved you some typing.

[Thesp]

Also, Ectomancer, we might get caught by the deadline with our pants down -- what if half of us have switched and half haven't, and deadline hits? Such a patterned, wholesale rearrangement of ballots is something I do not support at this stage.

I agree with part of this, while I still feel your "attack anything that threatens the status quo" approach unnerves me greatly.

As an aside: Yosarian2, thanks for your response. It helps.

If you can't make any argument for why you find VanDamien's idea to be a pro-town one, I don't just think you are wrong to assert it, you are wrong to assert it.

No no no no no no no no no.

I did not say I had no argument for why I felt VanDamien's approach was pro-town, I said I had difficulty articulating it. It is

ludicrous

to suggest that we should ignore things which stick out to us, even if the words don't form to present why.

I've asked you to speak in detail many times about why VanDamien's way of talking makes sense, or why his proposal makes him seem like a townie -- and you've categorically refused to do so.

This is a flat-out mischaracterization - I have said multiple times that his approach felt very natural. It seemed as though it was part of the normal flow of his train of thought, in a way that would be disjarring to see from scum.

Is this not the sort of thing town would do if they were in the final two and afraid of mafia influence? Wait -- yes it is, and you admit that:

I can understand that town might make the same comment

Even admitting that town might make the same sort of statement I am, you use it as evidence to find me scummy. Thesp, do you not, in self-reflection, find it the least bit peculiar to do so?

No, because I think scum would be far more likely in the same scenario to assert as you have, while town might do so sometimes. (When scum do something substantially more often than town, it's called a scum tell. It doesn't say town

doesn't

do it, it says scum do it

more

.)

I'm moving thesp up until we see the algorithm he promised

I didn't actually have one, I was just trying to make the scum second-guess themselves. I toyed with one for a little bit before deciding it wasn't really feasible. Sorry to get your hopes up.

Thesp, are you admitting to lying here?

Absolutely. I'm not sure how it could be construed otherwise.

Here, Thesp admits his suspicion may be completely unfounded and/or based on paranoia. I wonder, why make such a drastic ballot shift based on such shaky suspicion if you are town, Thesp?

HAVING DOUBTS ABOUT MY HUNCHES ON WHO SCUM ARE DOES NOT MEAN I DON'T THINK I'M RIGHT.

I'm deeply distressed by your calculated approach towards everything here, and I feel like your intimidation towards the status quo is more indicative of a scum who is desperate to retain their spot. Players who demand justification and arguments from their accusers (whether or not the same have been provided) are 66% scum/33% town, in my approximation and experience, and you're doing it here. I feel like I've presented some thoughts about you and some (though perhaps not thorough) justifications, yet your insistence that my suspicion of you is lacking in reasoned evidence is troubling. I suspect there will never be anything which will reach

your

level of "reasoned evidence" to suspect you, even if there

is actually

good reason. I'm getting more than a little tired of taking crap from you in games.

I realise that Thesp didn't make a comprehensive argument or anything for why you're scum, but just the general points he made made me re-evaluate you a little bit. I have a tendency to be rather stubborn about my evaluations of players - once I started thinking about it, your play did seem rather consistent with what I might expect from scum. The point is not that I've suddenly found you scummy but rather that I don't feel confident in my previous pro-town evaluation of you. You're not scummy, you're just borderline. That's why I'd strongly prefer the final two to be any two of Skruffs, Opie and VD, since these are the three players I really feel like I have pro-town reads on.

Quoted for massive, massive amounts of truthery.

I would like any of opie, Skruffs, Oman, or VanDamien in the bottom two, with VanDamien being of particular interest. I do

not

want Shy Guy there - increasingly, I think we lose if he is.

[Thesp]

Your emotional reaction makes me believe you are grasping scum. At best, you are a player playing on little more than feelings and hunches, whose evaluations can't be based on much more than the same.

You're full of crap.

Also, I again plead Thesp to answer why he was not at all bothered by the connection between myself and opie, and was instead bothered only by the connection between myself and Yosarian2.

I think there's a good chance opie is town - for one, I think his lack of knowledge about nights feels genuine. (Not that you seem to believe that "feeling genuine" is worthwhile.)

What do you think of other players? Who else do you feel is scum?

[Thesp]

I'd also like to hear from some other players other than Shy Guy - I'll get too aggravated with this game if he's the only person I have to talk with.

/ignore Shy Guy

[Thesp]

Are you aware of the phrase lynch all liars.

I am fully aware of the phrase. Why do you ask?

[Thesp]

Are you aware of the phrase lynch all liars.

I am fully aware of the phrase. Why do you ask?

I think you should hammer yourself now, you have mislead the town now you must pay for that you treacherous scum

You're funny. =P Why would scum lie there while town wouldn't?

Also, what do you think of other players?

I like what Ectomancer's doing, actually. I'd like to see his analysis - I think more and more that he's town. (Had his break from his pledging system come before the first deadline, I think it would be far more suspicious. I'm intrigued by his comments re: Max, particularly since I've thought Max quite scummy for the whole game.)

[Thesp]

I had seriously considered switching opie and Skruffs. I wish I had - it was so close!

Well done, scum. I had even considered moving Sarcastro down some there at the end.

I really wish that Shy Guy's analysis of the voting had never happened - I wonder how the game would have turned out. Sorry I was wrong about you, Shy Guy & Yosarian2.

That said, I hated the game itself. I'm glad I tried it, but I despised not getting any lynch information throughout the game. Thanks for running the game, Stoofer - this isn't an indictment on your modding skills, but rather on no-reveal games (of which this is a special subset).

I'm intrigued that the mafia didn't block their votes at all, and were rather scattershot.

Thanks, everyone, for the game.

[Thesp]

I meant what I said about Thesp's and Ectomancer's switches, that was not me trying to townify OMGUS. I'll have to think about this game and see if I can modify my play so people don't, for reasons not understandable to me, suddenly decide me and the people I think are town are scum at the last minute of games.

For me, I felt you took a "we've got the game under control so nobody better mess it up or your scum" approach after the initial deadline hit, and that felt like disturbing fear-mongering to me. I started second guessing myself a lot after that. Alas! I wish I had been better able to articulate why VanDamien was town, that was the only thing I was really certain of this game.

[Thesp]

[18]The Role PMs look like this:

Role: Townie

Please read the Rules very carefully and then confirm in the thread.

Role: Mafia.

The Mafia in this game are: XXX, XXX, XXX.

You may talk to each other outside the thread from now until the end of Day 0

.

Please read the Rules very carefully and then confirm in the thread.

General Rules

[19] The game is not to be discussed outside the thread unless your role specifically states that you may do so.

The Mafia may talk throughout Day 0.

I had entirely overlooked this.