Mini #556 - The Most Excellent People Ever - Called.

[Lloyd]

vote: lovo14

[Lloyd]

tripple post ftw..turns out this is the right thread. i need to read those numbers not the title....my vote and suspician stands

I disagree with you that The Jester's no lynch vote is similar to a random vote.

[Lloyd]

i feel there is lots you can learn from day 1. people who jumped on bandwagons. etc. can be extremely helpful at lylo as well

I disagree about how much you can learn from day 1, and find it odd that you're thinking about lylo already.

[Lloyd]

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?

unvote
Vote: The Jester

Is the above code for The Jester or for rest of us to decipher?

[Lloyd]

My dots, however, were not excellent, mostly because they are not part of any code. They are simply a long series of ellipsis...ellipses...those things...

Oops, I just found your explanation. I missed it earlier.

[Lloyd]

Urzassedatives and RangeroftheNorth, both who wanted day 1s, no longer seem active in this game.

Since RangeroftheNorth has more votes, I'll go with him.

Unvote

Vote: RangeroftheNorth

It seems scummy to call for short day 1s, and then just disappear instead of advocating and seeing a lynch go through.

As for Thantos' claim, my guess is that he did it to jump start discussion.

[Lloyd]

I think you all are over-reacting to Thanto's claim..I still think he did it to jump start the discussion.

As for my vote for Ranger, I am voting for him precisely because he has more votes than Uzer. On day 1, there isn't really anything to go on, other than wagons, especially in this game where several wagons have happened.

On day 1, someone eventually gets wagoned. Sometimes, it happens before a deadline. More often, a deadline has to be imposed because wagons don't happen.

Anyhow, I don't buy the day 1 is useful toward the end game argument that a number of you mentioned earlier.

In fact, I think day 1 is the most useless day in mafia games.

[Lloyd]

The only thing it is possible to gain from day one is a huge amount of random conversation about nothing. In this huge amount of random discussion, it's likely that someone will say something stupid, and will thus be lynched. This stupid comment will not indicate that he is scum. It's more likely to indicate that he's sick and tired of how completely pointless everything that's been going on has been. Alternatively, someone will become tired of reading pages and pages of completely useless posting, stop reading the thread, and be lynched for lurking. This doesn't seem productive to me. To me, it seems boring.

Quoting because I'm finding this game's day 1 has been a good example of the above, especially since Urza was driving most of the discussions, and has since disappeared and needing to be replaced.

At this point, pages of discussion about Uzer and Korlash is basically useless, since Uzer's replacement will say that Uzer's statements about Korlash was for meta-gaming reasons, and as a replacement, he / she won't be able to speak for Uzer.

So, we essentially spent pages and pages going on about Uzer wanting to lynch Korlash on day 1, and it not containing any useful information.

[Lloyd]

When I wrote Uzer above, I meant to write Urza.

[Lloyd]

Vote: UltimaAvalon

For what it's worth, I just nominated you for Vote UltimaAvalon in the Title Fairy thread.

[Lloyd]

you can learn stuff from bandwagons slipups voting patterns...the quality of posts...the rush to get through day 1

I'd like to see actual examples where examining day 1 actually helped catch scum in lynch or lose situations.

If you're in a lynch or lose situation, the town already is in a dire situation.

In fact, I would argue that the day 1 in that game wasn't useful at all. If information in day 1 was actually useful in catching scum, why would the game be in lynch or lose instead of having lynched correctly before based on information from day 1?

[Lloyd]

Day 1 breadcrumbs are easier to find when there is time to actually breadcrumb

I disagree.

While a long day 1 provide more opportunities to breadcrumb, it actually makes finding breadcrumbs more difficult. In contrast, a short day 1 makes breadcrumbs easier to find.

As for bread-crumming, I find them to be generally useless.

The only type of bread-crumming that I find useful is if two people crumb the same way (using same code) and then if one of them dies and revealed as town, the other deciphers the code.

For example: Mason A crumbs about Mason B, and vice versa. Mason A dies. Mason B decipher both Mason A and B's crumbs using the same code.

[Lloyd]

I read up from another game and no-lynch statistically helped us if we had a certain number alive. I had reasons for it, and for one reason or another it apparently wasn't viable. I retracted it regardless.

[...]

Recap: I read up that a no-lynch in a situation "Happily Ever After" explains this, apparently is really old, and I retracted it. No longer holds water.

If you hadn't retracted, I would have gotten on your case about the no lynch proposal.

I played in a game that was declared as "Happily Ever After", and the situation there was very different than day 1 in this game.

No lynch is only useful if there are 4 players - specifically 1 scum and 3 vanilla townies - left.

It has to do with 25% chance of lynching scum (1 out 4) versus 33% chance of lynching scum (1 out of 3)

[Lloyd]

Of course, there's the possibility of that (getting rid of bad players) would lead to the strongest personalities directing the lynch, which would be bad if those people were scum... But I guess that's statistically unprobable? I feel like I'm missing/forgetting something here, if you find something wrong, please point it out.

I recall someone once mentioning that mafia is about 25% guessing who scums are, and 75% convincing others of your hunches.

With that logic...On day 1 without information, it's of self-interest to advocate the lynch of a person (based on past gaming experiences) who you find difficult to convince in joining you in lynching someone else later on in the game. This approach isn't really applicable in theme games or games with investigation roles, and may be more applicable in Mountainous games where everyone is either vanilla townie or scum. Mountainous games really become a game of 25% guessing who scums are, and 75% convincing others of your hunches.

While the same logic doesn't directly apply to this game, it's along similar meta-gaming lines that Urza was trying to get Korlash lynched earlier...at least that's what I got out of the posts in this game.

[Lloyd]

3) There is no stone cold logic in this game, especially
what you said. I don't care if 75% or whatever ofthe time we lynch town Day 1, it still gives us more info than random voting and lynching quickly. It would also increase our chances of getting scum.

I disagree, unless I'm not understanding what you're saying.

Suppose the chances are 25% of randomly lynching scum, and 75% of lynching scum...

How does pro-longing day 1 change the chances one way or another?

If you mean that a prolonged day 1 offers more opportunities (time-wise) for scums to slip, doesn't it offer equal amount of opportunities (time-wise) for townies to act scummy and be mis-lynched?

[Lloyd]

I went through the posts so far, and counted using the following:

Vote Tally Table
Player listed on left voted for player listed on top in post #

[col] [col]lovo14 [col]Lloyd [col]tyhess [col]Korlash [col]The Jester [col]WhoMe? [col]Cavebear with a toothache [col]Panzerjager [col]Urzassedative [col]Thanatos [col]RangeroftheNorth [col]UltimaAvalon lovo14 [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] Lloyd [col]6 [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]222 [col] tyhess [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]48 [col] Korlash [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]11 [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] The Jester [col] [col]252 [col] [col]37, 108 [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] WhoMe? [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]115 [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]10 [col]34 Cavebear with a toothache [col] [col] [col] [col]12 [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]55 [col] [col] Panzerjager [col] [col]244 [col] [col]13,179 [col]125 [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]52,129 [col] Urzassedatives [col] [col] [col] [col]35 [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]18 [col] [col]14 Thanatos [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]207 [col] [col] [col] [col]17 [col] [col] [col] RangeroftheNorth [col]8 [col] [col] [col]39 [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]9 UltimaAvalon [col] [col]229 [col] [col]32,193 [col]91,176 [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col] [col]7
Based on the above info, the extremes are:
- Panzerjager voted 6 times today for 4 different players
- UltimaAvalon voted 6 times today for 4 different players (1 was a self-vote)
- lovo14 voted 0 times today (lovo14 tried to vote in post 84, but he typo'd so it didn't count)

Then, I counted their uses of FOSes:
- Panzerjager used 8 FOSes today (4 FOSes in post 52, 2 FOSes in post 96, 1 FOS in post 202, 1 FOS in post 225)
- lovo14 used 1 FOS today (1 FOS in post 141)
- UltimaAvalon used 0 FOSes today

Panzerjager has been at the extreme in casting votes and using FOSes. Casting suspicions on so many players seems scummy.

Unvote

Vote: Panerjager

[Lloyd]

EBWOP: Looks like I typo'd Panzerjager's name in my vote.

Unvote

Vote: Panzerjager

[Lloyd]

Lets look at your votes contextually...

- 2nd vote on Korlash's wagon (post 13, seems like you voted for Korlash sarcastically, since you're actually the first person who brings up voting for a Jester role in this game, and you reinforce your poor reason for wanting a Korlash bandwagon post 19, then again in post 23)

- 2nd vote (twice) on RangeroftheNorth's wagon (posts 52 and 129, both times because you gave the reason of: RangeroftheNorth putting Korlash at L-1)

- 3rd vote on The Jester's wagon (post 125, for The Jester's metagaming reasons)

- 2nd vote on my wagon (post 244)

You've been vote-hopping often, and tries to convince others to join you to form wagons. When others don't join, you seem to incite another wagon. Here's a good example:

In post 125, you vote for The Jester to make it 3 votes for him, stating how you haven't liked his play at all.

Then shortly later in post 129, you go back to voting for RangeroftheNorth, using the same reason you voted for him in post 52, and sarcastically calling it an epiphany in your second try.

Since Urzassedatives agreed "almost 100%" with RangeroftheNorth in post 128, it's an odd choice that you chose RangeroftheNorth over Urzassedatives.

More importantly, you abandoned your argument against The Jester fairly quickly, and switched back to RangeroftheNorth for sarcastic reasons, even though TheJester hadn't done anything in between posts 125 and 129 to lessen your suspicion of him.

Your quick vote hop there seems scummy.

[Lloyd]

Comments on my bandwagon.

- UltimaAvalon: No surprise that he initiated the vote on me. He wants to kill everyone...If he had the choice, half of our town would be dead already. Only if Rosso Carne had given UltimaAvalon a day kill to use . . .

- Panzerjager: Vote-hopper who rationalizes based on directions of the wind. He's not vote-hopping anymore because I pointed it out.

- The Jester: I think Thanatos'claim was to get the discussion going, and nothing more, and I still feel the same way.

- lovo14: "only scum want a quick day/lynch"

Like Urzassedatives and RangeroftheNorth, I prefer shorter day 1s, which says little about alignment.

Since Guardian replaced Urzassedatives...If Guardian prefers longer day 1, would that suddenly change his role's alignment?

- WhoMe?: "Going for someone because they have the fastest wagon?" You're pulling straws out of thin air. His wagon was slow . . .

[Lloyd]

Guardian,

Regarding you replacing Urzassedatives, I was pointing out that lovo's meta-gaming argument about short / long days is invalid when someone is replaced.

I don't view your post about words are scummy as an accusation. If something I wrote seems confusing, ask me and I'll clarify.

[Lloyd]

It seems like he has been buddying up to Urza and distancing to Jester and Lovo.

It seems like he has been buddying up to Urza and distancing to Jester and Lovo.

Llyod is clearly scum and nothing sense the PBPA has helped him any. I think Lovo is scum as well.

Urza/Guardian very well could be your partner, and no that doesn't change his alignment..or yours.

- Your repetition isn't validating your accusations. Considering that your posts are becoming old news, everyone may tune you out soon

- Your logic isn't making any sense, and instead vote-hopping (since I called you out on it), you are now making accusations by associations

On one hand, you accuse Urzassedatives / Guardian and I because we supposedly buddied up in your eyes.

On the other hand, you accuse lovo14 and I because we supposedly distanced in your eyes.

If you want to accuse people by hypothetical associations, at least make up your mind in how you associate one way or another.

- Wishy-washy associations that you're making seem like an extension of your earlier wishy-washy voting.

When this game is over many months from now, I may nominate you for the title of wishy-washy. I'll have to take a look whether you play other games in a similar fashion.

[Lloyd]

I was being sarcastic Lovo, I still think Lloyd > Thanatos.

Sarcasm out of annoyance or anger?

[Lloyd]

anyway

vote llyod

i think its the best lynch so far for this day

I just noticed you're voting on day 1 in this game, which is supposedly atypical for you meta-gaming wise, correct?

Anyhow, why do you think voting for me is the best lynch so far for this day? You haven't given a specific reason.

[Lloyd]

Thanatos, if there is something specific that I haven't addressed yet, point it out and I'll respond to it.

This game bores me, and I didn't have an aha! moment until my most recent re-read.

After re-reading this game's mechanics, and thinking about what's happened so far, I think Korlash's hunch on The Jester makes the most sense.

Unvote

Vote: The Jester

[Lloyd]

what was this aha? moment you speak of?

My aha moment was in connecting the following:

SOME ROLES HAVE AN ABILITY THAT CAN BE USED NIGHT 0.

Korlash places a random vote on The Jester, never removes it

For the record, Post 42, page 2 was my first real "jester is scum" ^^ So you can officially say my random vote ended there and my new "For the town" vote begins.

[Lloyd]

So lloyd, how do you feel about your vote now that you're pulling this role based info out of your ass?

i feel dumb now, for seeing something that wasn't there. i'll re-read this game again

[Lloyd]

notes i jotted down from re-reading:

urza - i've never seen anyone so bent on lynching someone else, to the point of posting an out of game thread about it
viewtopic.php?t=7493

guardian - since i consider mafiascum games as 25% finding scum, and 75% convincing others that i've found scum...i like playing with guardian more than urza, as guardian is less stubborn about who to lynch.

pan - he seems determine to lynch me, but it pales in comparison to urza's determination to lynch korlash.

lovo - he seems overly conscious about his vote, which seems typical for him. typical lovo for not participating much on day 1s, and preferring day 2s and beyond instead.

whome - reminds me of lovo's playstyle of not doing much on day 1s, but less extreme about it

ranger - even though he's been replaced, i still agree with him about having shorter day 1s.

ua - his recent absence is indicative that this game has stalled. i don't understand what the reference to team asshat was about

thanantos - i was wrong about his claim trying to get discussion going. i don't get the reason to get jester to pick up on it. otherwise, hard to read.

carebear - his positive tone seems reminds me of thanatos'. hard to read as well.

jester - interestingly, i didn't see he confirm nor deny korlash' claim that they know each other a long time in person

korlash - seems jovial about getting jester lynched. if it's for meta-gaming reasons, i can only take it at face value since i never played with either before

dizzy - playstyle seems genuine so far, need more posts to get a better read

tyhess - will probably be replaced, posts so far don't seem to say much

[Lloyd]

haven't gotten to the 25% yet

was just posting notes first

need to analyze next

[Lloyd]

who me,

why have you not commented on thanatos' explanation of his claim?

Why were you so active Feb 20 and then became so inactive, WhoMe??

i check in on mafiascum damn near every day. Something must have caught my attention then, not so much recently

[Lloyd]

lovo, who, pan,

odd that you three use thanatos as standard-bearer for non-participation, when tyhess has participated the least

any comments about tyhess' non-participation?

Well, Do we lynch Than for not participating or do we lynch llyod for being scum..my vote still goes on Llyod.

I agree scumminess > non participation. If we have no scumminess to attack, then a cull of non participants can be considered, but scum first!

QFT
i know it seems bad, but if the mod puts a deadline on us people might get more active

[Lloyd]

3 scummiest players:
1 - panzer - discrepancy - wishy-washy votes, indecision as to whether buddying up or distancing is more scummy, intense in wanting to lynch me
2 - korlash - persistence - wanting to lynch the jester based on meta-reasons
3 - urza / you - dichotomy - urza' intensity in wanting to lynch korlash, you moving votes around from suspect to suspect

[Lloyd]

korlash, sorry, i had to bus you.

Unvote

Vote: Lloyd

guardian, just hammer me; you already know my role anyway. thanks!

[Lloyd]

On night 0, we used our 1-shot delayed recruit power on Urzassedatives. The alignment change is suppose to happen on day 3, but it looks like the game never reached that far.

[Lloyd]

Guardian, you will turn into the last scum. You know how much Rosso Carne hates cults? Well...Ironically, he gave us cult powers in this game, and we recruited your predecessor.

[Lloyd]

given two safe claims (Siddharta Goutama and Albert Einstein)

Also Day 1 breadcrumbs are easier to find when there is time to actually breadcrumb, ok Einstein?