Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

Adel · Post Post #11 (isolation #0) » Fri Feb 01, 2008 9:45 pm

vote: Erg0

for being a secret Aussie.

Adel · Post Post #20 (isolation #1) » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:25 am

opie, what does your "clean slate" approach to Adel involve?

Adel · Post Post #51 (isolation #2) » Mon Feb 04, 2008 3:33 am

Dayvig: Erg0

were you scum? did I nail you?

Adel · Post Post #84 (isolation #3) » Tue Feb 05, 2008 11:45 am

You are always scum in games I'm in.
You are in this game.
I am in this game.
You are scum.

Adel · Post Post #90 (isolation #4) » Tue Feb 05, 2008 3:29 pm

following lynch all liars usually results in my death.

Adel · Post Post #112 (isolation #5) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 2:39 pm

unvote, vote:opie

obvscum trying to hard to be seen scumhunting.
This vote is good through to his lynch, which should take about six pages.

Adel · Post Post #115 (isolation #6) » Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:21 pm

it is lynch-worthy, not just vote worthy.

Also, there is nothing wrong with random bandwagons, as they are especially useful for identifying players who are trying to lynch off of weak evidence. Just look at opie, who will be today's lynch.

Adel · Post Post #125 (isolation #7) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 3:00 am

opie wrote:Is this based on another algorithm?

And, you're wrong again.

don't knock my mini-normal algorithm -- it is pretty good.

=======================================

Votecount #5

Oman - 2 (Erg0, Jitsu)

pickemgenius - 2 (TrustGossip, Incognito)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Matt_S)
Erg0 - 2 (Guardian, Oman)
opie - 2 (Adel, Xylthixlm)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)
Matt_S - 1 (ChaosOmega)

Not voting - 0 (nobody)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

Adel · Post Post #127 (isolation #8) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 4:53 am

consider it the anthem of your death march.

Adel · Post Post #134 (isolation #9) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 9:04 am

Jitsu wrote: @Adel: Do you really feel that you have enough information so far on this game for your models to give an accurate answer right now? What kind of percentages are your models giving you?

Of games I've replaced into, my model has identified correctly 3 out of 7 scum, with four townies incorrectly identified as scum. I feel like I've adopted my playstyle in a way that allowes me to begin in a game without destroying the accuracy of my model.

There is not enough information yet for me to try my model, but with opie so obviously scum I don't need to. I'll do it tomorrow, after today's accurate lynch of opie.

Adel · Post Post #136 (isolation #10) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 9:24 am

Guardian: no post #'s, but I copied the entire posts:

opie wrote:
vote: pickmegenius

Why? because I said so!

And. Because Adel has too many votes already...

communicates to his scum buddies that he is apt to chase the later votes on any wagon

opie wrote:
Unvote: pick
em
genius

Post 64 made me laugh after reading dictionary definitions. Ugh. But to throw in my two cents, when I read your post Xylthixlm I read it with arbitrary meaning 3b. Why? Because when I use that word, that how I most often use it. Enter "define:arbitrary" into google and the majority of the results are similar.

Guardian driving Ergo's wagon makes me uneasy. You demand everyone give there thoughts on Erg0 and explain why they don't think he is worthy of a vote? I'm not voting for him because I haven't heard a case made against him. He threatened us with a day vig? Really? Right now to me this wagon is random bordering on suspicious.

Vote: Guardian
FOS: Oman and Adel

a wagon that is "random bordering on suspicious" is enough reason for a vote?

opie wrote:First, I do appreciate the fact that you are trying to get some serious discussion. I felt like "arbitrary" was starting to distract the town.

I said that you were driving Erg0's wagon because you are voting for and then asked everyone for their thoughts. To me it had an air of: "Those of you not voting for Erg0, explain yourself" which just doesn't sit right with me. Especially when I don't think Erg0 has done anything to deserve an serious wagon. If its not a serious wagon then its a random wagon, and I don't think its necessary for me to explain why I'm not on a random wagon. I think it's incumbent upon those on a random bandwagon to explain why they are not the other way around. Thus, my vote for you.

Additionally you swithed you vote to Erg0 without any explanation. At first I thought it was random, but I'm starting to get the sense that it wasn't. And lastly, in Post 43, you questioned Erg0's threats of DayVig. The statements you are using to implicate Erg0 are to me statement made tongue in cheek. I didn't give the much credit. It makes me wonder why you do, and why you said nothing of Adel or Oman's Day Vigs.

I guess I just don't understand why Erg0 is being targetted here, which makes me suspicious of those voting for him. I will say that looking back Adel's vote for him has was her first only vote thus far, so perhaps I was a bit hasty with my FOS at her, but something about this just doesn't sit right.

Opie: I'll tell you what was wrong with that picture: three townies were on a wagon of another townie without you or any of your scumbuddies being on the same wagon. You got very happy at having the opportunity to "prove" your pro-town credentials, and then you overreached with this post. If you were better at playing scum you would've waited a while longer before attacking the wagon for being baseless, instead to tried to create an early impression in other players that if Erg0 isn't scum, than Guardian or Oman or maybe even I must be.

opie wrote:
[i]In Post 83[/i] Guardian wrote:To clarify, I have accrued two votes and one fos for:

Taking this game seriously

Taking comments in this game seriously

Wanting others to take this game seriously

Asking others to play this game

Is this a significant mis-categorization? Is there something I've missed?
Actually, those are none of the reason that I voted for you. Seriously.

So a significant mis-categorization? Yes.

Here is why I'm voting for you:

First: (a) you swithched you for to Erg0 without explanation [Post 24]; then, (b) when asked to explain, you reply that it's because of Erg0's "hang" comments, also because he's a "secret Aussie" Post 27; and, (c) you wonder why Erg0 is threatening with day vigs, then comment that he is the best place for votes (Post 43). My initial thoughts were just random stage chatter.

But then, you ask everyone to comment on Erg0's wagon [Post 65]. Which suggested to me that the above comments were serious. I didn't feel (and still don't) that what Erg0 did was worthy of a serious vote. And if they aren't all that serious, then I don't think I should have to explain why I am not on a random wagon.

As I said above [Post 75], I can't figure out why you were/are targetting Erg0 in such a way. It seems suspicious to me.

And now as Jitsu pointed out, it seems odd to demand that everyone explain their stance on Erg0[Post 65], when only a few posts later[Post 74, you don't feel he is most deserving of a vote.

This is the post that really nailed it for me. He is just

trying

too hard to make something out of what he knows is just "random stage chatter". That Guardian made an active post drawing out reactions from other players on the topic of the Erg0 wagon is a pro-town move, and I don't believe that opie was not only unable to recognize that but he also based his vote on Guardian upon it. Bullshit. His vote on guardian was based upon Guardian being a convenient target whose posts opie felt like he could manipulate into being the grounds of a strong wagon, probably hoping for a forced claim.

opie wrote:Adel will you consider no other candidates for a lynch today?

I don't need to. You are going to get voted to -1 to lynch, and then you are going to claim vanilla townie, and then someone is going to hammer you, and we'll continue on to day 2 and a pretty probable victory thanks to your errors as scum.

Adel · Post Post #138 (isolation #11) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 10:20 am

Jitsu wrote:
Adel wrote:Opie: I'll tell you what was wrong with that picture: three townies were on a wagon of another townie without you or any of your scumbuddies being on the same wagon.
@Adel: I will consider your case on Opie, now that you've actually presented one. Some questions:

I can follow your logic and see why you think Guardian is pro-town. Obviously you will assert that you are pro-town. So why do you think Oman is pro-town?

What is your estimation of the chance that Opie is scum?

Also, have you ever pretented to use your models when playing as scum to get a town player mislynched? If that scenario hasn't happened yet, would you do so in the future?

1. I'd expect Oman to behave otherwise if he were scum.
2. better than 50%
3. No. I haven't been scum in a long time.
4. Yes I might, once my models have a reputation for being accurate. I mostly plan on using them to inform me even if I don't share the results with the town. In Illustrated mafia I used my model, and didn't tell anyone. When I use them in this game, I don't know if I'll tell anyone. It is starting to seem like the best way to use the algorithm is to do it in secret, and then look for more traditional evidence that would support the case.

Adel · Post Post #140 (isolation #12) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 12:12 pm

I guess my reason are more intuitive than anything, but Oman's posts so far just make sense to me. If you are town and you are trying to get things going, that is one way to play that I find perfectly acceptable.

Adel · Post Post #143 (isolation #13) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 12:38 pm

I'm not using any non-standard tools at this point in the game.

What is unconventional about Oman's play? It seems pretty standard to me.

Adel · Post Post #145 (isolation #14) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 12:58 pm

Matt_S wrote:
Jitsu wrote:@Matt: If you don't support random bandwagons to promote discussion, what do you prefer instead?
Random votes that don't bring a person close to being lynched. In my eyes the bandwagoners get more negative attention than the person being bandwagoned. Or nice, logical arguments against someone. Bandwagoning is sometimes good, and random voting is alright, but I dislike a combination of the two.

And what would you base you preferred nice & logical arguments on in an absence of any behavior to analyze?

Why do you think getting negative attention is a bad thing for a player to do, even if more substancial attention is the result?

Is random bandwagoning really scummy enough to be worth a vote?

Who is more likely to randomly bandwagon a player, tow or scum?

Adel · Post Post #147 (isolation #15) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 1:13 pm

Let me guess, in the game you modded he was a vanilla townie?

Adel · Post Post #151 (isolation #16) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 2:57 pm

This is my 2122th game post. As Team Leader or Assistant Team Leader
I would support systemically interrogating each doctor individually abut their posts during day 1.
All other Doctors would barrage him with questions and refuse to budge until all questions were answered. I would support Trust Gossip or Shaft.ed as the first target of such an interrogation.
I am qualified for either of these positions because I like to torture people and I have successfully lynched scum in this game. By actively seeking such a position I draw attention to myself and make myself an obvious target for attack. I am not trying to blend in or keep a low profile. If elected I would produce results: lynched scum.

Adel · Post Post #152 (isolation #17) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 2:59 pm

btw, say "2122th" out loud. Much more fun that way.

Adel · Post Post #153 (isolation #18) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 3:02 pm

damn, wrong tab, wrong game. sorry, please ignore my last two posts.

Adel · Post Post #156 (isolation #19) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 4:37 pm

it is a psychological scumtell I believe in. Scum, trying to be town,

projects

his actions more than normally. This isn't necessarily expressed by more frequent posting than is typical for the player. The scum player is more likely to state his policies prior to an action than is he is as townie. Consistency in thought and deed is much more likely to be emphasized. Playing the part of the "enforcer" for herd behavior often makes up a good portion of the player's posts.

rhetorical bullshit. I was having fun. It had about as much bias as an "God-Denying Evolution in your Schools" article in

Christian Living

under the "Threats to your Family" section.

I apologize for that.

Adel · Post Post #158 (isolation #20) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 4:47 pm

I didn't even remember his first post, but when I saw it his post history when I was collecting those quotes for you I figured I could fit it in pretty nicely. A good way to start or maybe not?
What I was writing was true, but it didn't really answer your question. I spent some time writing it so I didn't want to just throw it away when I examined why I was dodging the question. I don't think he was trying to "communicate" anything with his first post. My bad.

Adel · Post Post #163 (isolation #21) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 4:54 pm

yes. he wasn't trying to communicate with his buddies.

Adel · Post Post #165 (isolation #22) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 4:59 pm

Xylthixlm wrote:
Adel
: Neutral; seems to be agitating things without a lot of logic. Talk of an algorithm is amusing. I'd love to know how many townies it has correctly identified, so I can compute error rates.

The output is a % chance of a player being scum. In a normal mini guessing if there is 3 scum or 4 is like a 70 - 30 split.

Adel · Post Post #169 (isolation #23) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 5:16 pm

Xylthixlm wrote:Adel, that doesn't answer the question. You gave numbers for 'scum correctly identified', 'scum misidentified as town', and 'town misidentified as scum'. Those numbers are absolutely useless unless you also give the number for 'town correctly identified'.

game 1: 2 scum identified, 1 townie identified as scum, 8 other players left other than myself

game 2: 0 scum identified, 3 townies identified as scum, 8 other players left other than myself

game 3: 1 scum identified, 0 townie identified as scum, 4 other players left other than myself

Adel · Post Post #176 (isolation #24) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 5:45 pm

Xylthixlm wrote:
Adel wrote:game 1: 2 scum identified, 1 townie identified as scum, 8 other players left other than myself

game 2: 0 scum identified, 3 townies identified as scum, 8 other players left other than myself

game 3: 1 scum identified, 0 townie identified as scum, 4 other players left other than myself
Of players your algorithm identified as scum, 3/7 were scum, or 43%.
Of players your algorithm identified as town, 4/13 were scum, or 31%.

I'm less than astonished.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled game of mafia.

Is your record better? 43% is a pretty good number for the first few days.

Adel · Post Post #197 (isolation #25) » Fri Feb 08, 2008 1:15 pm

Xylthixlm wrote:
Matt_S wrote:2. You're arguing against Adel's scum catching which look really impressive to me. Having about half of your suspects on day 1 being scum is good. And I should probably say that the criticism I'm talking about is against points that they haven't made.
Adel's algorithm got the scum right 43% of the time. If he had picked the scum
totally at random
he would have been right 35% of the time. The difference between those two numbers is not enough to impress me with his awesomeness.

You fail. 43% isn't an accurate number, but I was willing to let it pass the first time. Now you are throwing out 35%, which is another inaccurate number. Either drop the subject or get schooled in a most embarrassing way. Before you go back and check your addition and division here is a hint: you are doing it wrong.

Adel · Post Post #201 (isolation #26) » Fri Feb 08, 2008 4:58 pm

I like how Matt_S put a fos on his scumbuddy but still hasn't decided to buss him.

Adel · Post Post #203 (isolation #27) » Fri Feb 08, 2008 5:06 pm

He will make for a great lynch tomorrow. opie dies in like three pages.

Adel · Post Post #212 (isolation #28) » Sat Feb 09, 2008 2:57 pm

Incognito: if I understand correctly, the question you are really asking is "why opie but not Jitsu?"
Jitsu seems far less scummy to me.

Adel · Post Post #223 (isolation #29) » Mon Feb 11, 2008 3:36 am

At this point can anyone see Mat_S being scum independant of opie?

hmmm....

Adel · Post Post #237 (isolation #30) » Mon Feb 11, 2008 2:12 pm

pickemgenius wrote:So now opie and Matt_S are trying to get Guardian lynched.... fantastic.

and Incognito is trying to help Matt_S and opie invent some drama between them to help their distancing.... fantastic. I think this is going to be a very short game.

Adel · Post Post #248 (isolation #31) » Tue Feb 12, 2008 5:28 am

opie wrote:I am a little troubled that Guardian has ignored my questions in Post 228 and his unwillingness to respond to Incognito's argument other than what he's shown in Post 225. And in that post, I'm not sure what he is getting at.

pickemgenius, it just seems to me that you were trying to clumsily build a connection between Matt_S and I. I'm just saying.

there is nothing clumsy about noticing the obvious. try again.

Adel · Post Post #252 (isolation #32) » Tue Feb 12, 2008 6:17 am

Incognito wrote:I am now 100% certain

huge scumtell. 100% bullshit is more like it.

This is the sloppiest scum team I've

ever

seen.

Adel · Post Post #257 (isolation #33) » Tue Feb 12, 2008 6:52 am

Xylthixlm wrote:I have this weird feeling that Adel and pickemgenius are in some sort of mind-meld.

which is one of the reasons I invited peg to join this game with me. We are familiar with each other's style from the games we've been in together.

Adel · Post Post #262 (isolation #34) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:46 am

Xylthixlm wrote:Adel, of your three suspects, why do you want to lynch opie today?

1. I am confident that he is scum. Mat_S would be too easy to lynch and there is a possibility of him being a VI. Also, I have trouble seeing him as scum independant of opie. Incognito doesn't really seem that scummy to me, sometimes I get a little carried away with myself.
2. I predicted opie's lynch pages and pages ago, and I like being right.
3. I want to draw the NK (suck that scum, ha ha!)

Adel · Post Post #265 (isolation #35) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:10 am

Incognito wrote:Stop being so ignorant and thick-headed.

I'd advise against being intentionally insulting if you want to make friends or influence people in the future.

Adel · Post Post #269 (isolation #36) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:03 am

Guardian wrote:
Incognito wrote:
Adel wrote:
Incognito wrote:Stop being so ignorant and thick-headed.
I'd advise against being intentionally insulting if you want to make friends or influence people in the future.

Adel wrote:100% bullshit is more like it.
Oh. I guess you're not the insulting type.

P.S. I'm not here to be your "friend". I'm here to play Mafia.
I've seen a scum say this like 3 times and never a townie.

WOULD YOU MIND LINKING TO ALL THREE SO WE DON'T HAVE TO TAKE YOU AT YOUR WORD?

Adel · Post Post #272 (isolation #37) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 11:37 am

sometimes i type while I do something else, and then I hit submit without looking at the screen.... it hasn't been a problem before because everyone seems cool with typos, and I've never left my CapsLock on before.

sorry about that.

Adel · Post Post #289 (isolation #38) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:55 pm

Guardian wrote:
opie wrote:Guardian, why are you not motivated to respond to Incognito?
I thought no one would ever ask.

I'm busy, and many of his points are correct. I've followed Adel a lot. I ask many questions. I disagree that those things are indicative of my being scum, but I can't refute the facts. Also, while I don't find his case convincing, I think it would take quite a bit of time to respond to in sufficient depth to come anywhere near refuting.

Defenses are overrated anyway. Especially since not many are convinced by Incognito, and he is "100% sure" I am scum, I don't see how it would be a valuable expenditure of my time and effort to make arguments that aren't going to change many people's minds about anything. About 3 people have an inclination I'm scum right now, and I don't think responding to Incognito's case would do much, possibly reducing the number suspicious of me to 2 people from 3.

My time is much more valuably spent trying to find scum right now.

I think he is right and that we should all support him

Adel · Post Post #296 (isolation #39) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:09 pm

FoS: PEG

because I like to bandwagon with Guardian.

Adel · Post Post #298 (isolation #40) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:17 pm

Erg0 wrote:No more mind meld?

more like two fingers are better than one because two fingers can cross and that makes a big

X

and

X

is s

X

e is like peg, right?

Adel · Post Post #321 (isolation #41) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 9:30 am

Guardian wrote:Also Adel is your 289 completely serious?

yes. I am all about keeping the signal to noise ratio down. If I didn't know that you were town I would probably take a different stance.

Adel · Post Post #323 (isolation #42) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:14 am

Jitsu wrote: @Adel: Can you explain why you think Matt_S's probability of being scum is dependant on Opie being scum? Also, how do you know that Guardian is town (post 321)?

1. I forget, but I know.
2. I forget, but I know.

Adel · Post Post #330 (isolation #43) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:11 pm

Xylthixlm wrote:
Jitsu wrote:@Adel: Can you explain why you think Matt_S's probability of being scum is dependant on Opie being scum?
It has something to do with "distancing", which if I understand correctly is a mechanism where scum leave deliberate breadcrumbs about who their scumbuddies are. I don't understand why scum on this site are so kind, but I'll take any gifts they want to give us

er, distancing is where two scumbuddies call each other scummy so that when one is discovered to be scum the other looks more townie. It is similar to bussing, just without the lynch.

Adel · Post Post #332 (isolation #44) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:10 pm

and that is because the current meta is all over identifying distancing. In fact, it is only when newer players like Matt_S do it that alarms bells really ring for me.

Adel · Post Post #337 (isolation #45) » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:51 pm

Patrick: what did I do wrong? Why haven't I been able to get opie lynched yet?

Adel · Post Post #339 (isolation #46) » Sun Feb 17, 2008 7:27 am

I never said that you sucked. Are you saying that you are clever enough to

not

distance yourself from your partner?

Adel · Post Post #357 (isolation #47) » Sun Feb 17, 2008 8:48 pm

Incognito wrote:I, too, would support a Jitsu lynch as opposed to a Matt_S lynch.

I'm shocked.

Adel · Post Post #361 (isolation #48) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 8:38 am

A word of advice for those preparing metas on other players, comparing day 1 bahavior to behavior on later days is a clear apples to oranges comparison.

Adel · Post Post #364 (isolation #49) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 10:46 am

@oman do you still feel that Jitsu is pro-town? He was so good as town in our last game together, and I buy him as town so far in this game, that I want to defend him. Care to join me?

Adel · Post Post #373 (isolation #50) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 1:50 pm

Patrick wrote: One of the few players here that I have any meta on, and that is that she always looks like scum to me. .

A couple of questions--

did you hear that ryan just got banned recently for posting a role PM in a game? ABR got me lynched day 1 or day 2 in my next four games after that, he was town aligned in all four and I was only scum in the last one. I was the doctor two of those times. He just posted in MD that he is only going to mod for now on. What was notable about my play in Friends and Enemies?

Adel · Post Post #374 (isolation #51) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 1:54 pm

Patrick wrote:
Adel wrote:@oman do you still feel that Jitsu is pro-town? He was so good as town in our last game together, and I buy him as town so far in this game, that I want to defend him. Care to join me?
You called Opie's early case on Guardian bullshit, and voted him for it. When opie made the case, Jitsu expressed agreement with it, and threw a FoS on Guardian, whilst voting someone who you apparently believe is protown. I tend to think going along with a bad case is worse if anything than putting it forward to start with, so I don't see why you aren't also at least a bit suspicious of Jitsu for supporting a case that you think is crap. Please explain what is so great about Jitsu in this game that makes you think he's town.

He may be scum.
opie

is

scum.

I prefer to pick the low-hanging fruit.

Adel · Post Post #376 (isolation #52) » Mon Feb 18, 2008 2:12 pm

I don't want the town to lynch him. He reacted how I would expect him to if he were town again, as opposed to opie who didn't. Their interaction is what really sold me on opie. Can we lynch him now, please?

Adel · Post Post #387 (isolation #53) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 11:32 am

@Vollkan: awesome.

Adel · Post Post #391 (isolation #54) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 6:53 pm

I'm starting to think that the Jitsu is the scum-backed alternative to their buddy getting the axe. I am not happy about it. Oman and I are drinking the same Kool-Aid on this one.

Adel · Post Post #393 (isolation #55) » Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:14 pm

I think it is unsubstantial.

read [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6530]Underground Mafia[/quote] which is his only other game. He is such a clear asset to the town that remarkably slim evidence against him does nothing to convince me that risking his life is a chance worth taking.

opie, on the other hand, would make for good plant food. Let us let him push up daisies for the rest of the game.

Adel · Post Post #397 (isolation #56) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:07 am

Jitsu wrote: Adel, can you say who you think Opie's partners are?

Matt_S seems awefully likely.

@Guardiuan: I'll go through all of it later, but I think Jitsu should be an investigation target and not a lynch.

Adel · Post Post #409 (isolation #57) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:39 am

unvote, vote Guardian

Adel · Post Post #413 (isolation #58) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 9:45 am

call it a pre-emptive OMGUS vote. You should've supported the opie wagon, now I'm going to get you.

Adel · Post Post #423 (isolation #59) » Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:16 pm

because I know the motive behind mine. I'm willing to do slightly scummy things to get a reaction or an absence of a reaction out of people. My post in response to Incognito was slightly based on truth and slightly built to troll a reaction out of him. Based upon his reaction to my post I am not pretty comfortable with the idea that he stands an above average chance of being scum. The biggest difference between my post and Incognito's is that mine got a pretty good reaction out of Guardian. I think that is notable. Among other things, it establishes a greater likelihood that Incognito is scum if Guardian is.

Right now I have to competing theories for who is scum:

theory one

If

Guardian is scum

then

Incognito is scum

theory two

If

opie is scum

then

Matt_S is scum
and

if

Matt_S is scum

then

Incognito is scum

Adel · Post Post #427 (isolation #60) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 7:35 am

Guardian wrote:Adel, what's my notable reaction?

no reaction followed by over-reaction once someone else brout it up.

Adel · Post Post #431 (isolation #61) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:19 am

Guardian wrote:opie, if I was "trying desperately to find something that he can exploit to make a case out of" why would I attack Jitsu and not you?

because you know that he is town, and you wanted to only give his wagon a slight push without having your vote on it.

Adel · Post Post #434 (isolation #62) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:32 am

because I'm trying to figure out if you are distancinging yourself from opie or Jitsu. Thanks for clearing that up for me.

Adel · Post Post #436 (isolation #63) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 10:45 am

Why I think Guardian is scum:
1. followed my lead early on opie
2. abandoned the opie wagon when it looked probable that opie would be the lynch
3. when I made the post stating that I know that Guardian is town, he didn't respond to it until other players did. As a townie he would've immediately challanged it. Now he is using it as evidence against me. Situational, and scummy.
4. His inconsistant reaction to players making statements that may infer that they know others people's alignments. I have, Incognito has, and Jitsu has.
5. Guardian has been scum in two of our previous games together, and I have a strong intuitive suspicion of him which is at least partially based upon experience.

Adel · Post Post #438 (isolation #64) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 11:00 am

Guardian wrote: Also, in how many games in which I was town have you identified me as scum?

0

Sharing a partial meta is more than slightly deceptive. In my experience, Adel is pretty inconsistent at determining my alignment.

I hammered you as scum on day 2 in mioni 455
You nk'd me immediately upon replacing in in Monks and Masons

Is there one that I am forgetting or something?

Adel · Post Post #441 (isolation #65) » Thu Feb 21, 2008 12:16 pm

damn it, I'm getting into a typing contest with Guardian. I'm afraid that this may end up damaging the signal:noise ratio.

The rest of your points are not good, but I want to allow other players (including you scumbuddies) to throw in their two cents. I know what you are trying to do here: drown out the case against you by getting a series of wall-of-words tl;dr posts between us.

This is a day 1.

My case is there against you, and you've responded to them. I would prefer to let the other plaers read what is there and arrive at their own decision or ask other questions if needed.

Adel · Post Post #446 (isolation #66) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 5:50 am

Incognito: am I voting for you, or otherwise pushing your wagon? No, you don't seem that scummy to me right now. You are, however, a plausible scum companion of a couple of people I do find scummy. If there was other considerable evidence indicating that you were scum I would be all over you.

Adel · Post Post #448 (isolation #67) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 5:59 am

he does that regardless of alignment.

Adel · Post Post #456 (isolation #68) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 8:38 am

@Jitsu: wanna vote for opie with me?

unvote, vote opie

Adel · Post Post #458 (isolation #69) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 9:57 am

bah, you're right.

unvote, vote: Guardian

Adel · Post Post #460 (isolation #70) » Fri Feb 22, 2008 10:00 am

Guardian wrote:bah, he's not.

don't be silly

bah, yes he is.

diescumdie

Adel · Post Post #477 (isolation #71) » Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:33 pm

meh

unvote, vote:opie

Adel · Post Post #520 (isolation #72) » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:04 pm

I think this day has produced enough information, and tonight will produce more.

I do not want to see another claim.

I called the Matt_S & opie scumpir pages ago, and I'll be as confident of Matt_S's lynch tomorrow as I am of opie's today.

Adel · Post Post #522 (isolation #73) » Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:19 pm

that is about three "if"s more than I like to see.

hammer, please.

Adel · Post Post #533 (isolation #74) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 2:25 am

Erg0 is acting like scum who knows that the opie lynch will go through and will be a lynch of a townie.

Which is it Erg0: are you scum, or is opie?

Adel · Post Post #535 (isolation #75) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 2:31 am

cool. hows abouts if opie is scum we lynch Matt_S tomorrow, and if he isn't we lynch Erg0?

Adel · Post Post #544 (isolation #76) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 12:13 pm

PEG lurks, deal with it. It isn't a scumtell.

Adel · Post Post #570 (isolation #77) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 6:28 pm

I could go for a late Matt_S wagon for no particular reason than that i would enjoy reading his protests as we march him to the noose.

unvote, vote:Matt_S

if nobody wants to join me then I'll just vote for opie again.

Adel · Post Post #590 (isolation #78) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 5:53 am

unvote, vote: opie

I'm feeling more ok with Guardian than I was earlier.

Adel · Post Post #591 (isolation #79) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 5:53 am

p.s. standard lynch -1 warning applies. Don't "accidently hammer" if you don't mean to.

Adel · Post Post #594 (isolation #80) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 6:22 am

unvote, vote: Guardian

daytalk just ended, and now I think he is scum

Adel · Post Post #597 (isolation #81) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:01 am

well if this game establishes it, for now on I'll just go against my gut when it comes to you, and them i'll be 100% right, or something.

Adel · Post Post #601 (isolation #82) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 7:50 am

Jitsu wrote:
Adel wrote:
unvote, vote: Guardian

daytalk just ended, and now I think he is scum
Something in the meta, I assume? Can you elaborate?

his play is awefully consistant regardlesss of his alignment. My opinion of him in this game changed very quickly after I read his post at 593

Guardian wrote:
Guardian wrote:
Adel wrote:
5. Guardian has been scum in two of our previous games together, and I have a strong intuitive suspicion of him which is at least partially based upon experience.

And in either of those games, did you figure out I was scum? Also, in how many games in which I was town have you identified me as scum? Sharing a partial meta is more than slightly deceptive. In my experience, Adel is pretty inconsistent at determining my alignment.
For the record, Open 59, Daytalk, which just ended, was heavy on my mind when I posted this, since I was scum and Adel was town in that game and we were PM-ing and she was trying to collaborate with me to get a townie lynched.

He is trying to undermine whatever authority other players might think I have in determining correctly that he is scum.

If he is town I eexpect scum players to join me on his wagon any second now...

Adel · Post Post #604 (isolation #83) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 2:22 pm

Incognito wrote:
Guardian, in post 555, wrote:As for putting it back on: opie is my top choice right now,
and I am as responsible as anyone for his lynch
, but there are some lines of discussion people are bringing up I'd like to pan out before a lynch.
To mention that you are "as responsible as anyone for his lynch", it seems to me like you
know
that opie will appear as town once he's lynched and it seems almost like you're paving the way for your Day 2 defense for if/when this occurs.

I don't think it is scummy for Guardian to do this, for whatever that is worth. That would just be Guardian being Guardian.

Adel · Post Post #606 (isolation #84) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 2:37 pm

question: has Guardian had a strong wagon on him yet in this game?

Adel · Post Post #612 (isolation #85) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 3:20 pm

Guardian wrote:I've had 4, tied with opie or 1 behind, and thought I'd have to claim. I consider the wagon on me right now to be "strong". So yes.

I bet if an objective person were to look through all of guardian's lynchings (everytime he got the noose) he would tend to post more when he is scum relative to when he is town.

Adel · Post Post #614 (isolation #86) » Wed Feb 27, 2008 4:16 pm

I suppose it could be collaborative. We could break up the larger analysis into pieces, and each help out. Wanna help?

Adel · Post Post #626 (isolation #87) » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:40 am

unvote, vote: opie

Adel · Post Post #628 (isolation #88) » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:51 am

the CO wagon totally fits my expectation for what a late wagon, driven by scum, as an alternative to their scumbuddy's wagon.

Fos: Patrick and Erg0

Adel · Post Post #632 (isolation #89) » Thu Feb 28, 2008 11:58 am

I'll explain everything tomorrow after opie hangs.

Adel · Post Post #717 (isolation #90) » Mon Mar 03, 2008 2:36 pm

Erg0 wrote:
Vote: ChaosOmega

Watcher + tracker + cop? I think not.

Vote: ChaosOmega

Adel · Post Post #738 (isolation #91) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 3:59 am

I'm not liking the wifom noise that is comming from Erg0 right now.

Adel · Post Post #742 (isolation #92) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 7:31 am

I'll explain later.

This is vollkan's first modded game on mafiascum.net.

Adel · Post Post #744 (isolation #93) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 7:43 am

When I am at home and have my notes in front of me. Off of the top of my head I can't remember what it was that I was supposed to explain today... I only know that I said it to wifom the scum into either killing me or not killing me last night. I won't say if it worked or not

Adel · Post Post #756 (isolation #94) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 3:04 pm

Matt_S wrote:
Adel
I never really understood why Adel was so sure that opie was scum, and so early on. However, I'll wait for Adel to give the promised explanation.

I tried typing out a couple of posts of bullshit, and gave up. I picked opie at random at the start and decided to get him lynched. I believe random lynches on day 1 in mini normals are more likely to be accurate than non-random lynches, but only if the voters don't know that they are part of a random lynch. Sorry opie.

Adel · Post Post #758 (isolation #95) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 3:10 pm

Erg0 wrote:Mathematically, a random lynch is never going to be more likely to hit scum than town.

Mathematically, a random lynch only has to be more likely to get scum than the average results of actual games.

Adel · Post Post #760 (isolation #96) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 3:16 pm

um, no joke.

Adel · Post Post #764 (isolation #97) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 3:25 pm

Matt_S wrote:I don't have any numbers to prove you wrong.

if there any numbers to prove me wrong they would be found at: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 08&start=0
which links to each mini-normal game in order (sort of) by game number.

Adel · Post Post #768 (isolation #98) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 3:34 pm

Erg0 wrote:Out of interest, have you ever run the numbers yourself?

yep, but not since September of last year.

Adel · Post Post #769 (isolation #99) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 3:35 pm

Patrick wrote:
Incognito wrote:Why does this come as a surprise to everyone? She pretty much admitted that the case against opie was pure bullshit here:
I thought she was backing down on the "he's communicating something to scumbuddies" point. I didn't see that as applying to the whole case. In fact I doubt she was doing what you said she is there, because she's claiming the people on the lynch had to be unaware that it was random.

Adel, what do you think of Oman?

totally scum.

I also suspect that we have a vig and not an sk.

Adel · Post Post #773 (isolation #100) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:04 pm

Patrick wrote:I will laugh so hard if Adel turns out to be town and Chaos and Oman are both scumbags.

sometimes gambits work.

Adel · Post Post #774 (isolation #101) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:09 pm

Erg0 wrote:Which one do you think was the vig's target?

knife. I think is just as probable that the mod used two different kill types to mark the difference between a mafia kill and a vig kill as it could be for a sk kill and a mafia kill. Or we could have a mafia of knives and a mafia of guns. Either way with a dead tracker and a dead watcher there is no way there is also a cop. CO could be a sk or mafia, doesn't matter.

Adel · Post Post #777 (isolation #102) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 4:22 pm

how many times have I mentioned Xylthixlm or Incognito?

Adel · Post Post #783 (isolation #103) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 3:22 am

Jitsu wrote: @Adel: I have several questions for you.

I noticed on several occasions you acting supportive toward Oman on Day 1, and it didn't seem as if you found him scummy for most of the day. So, how did you really feel about Oman? If you didn't find him scummy early on, what changed your mind?

he was agreeing with me, and I tend to give players that agree with me the public benefit of the doubt. I'm always skeptical.

Did you really think Opie was guilty at the end of Day 1?

*shrug* I didn't really think about it. I was more interested in getting him lynched than trying to figure out his alignment.

Why do you suspect we have a vig and not an SK?

Because I've seen this rush to reach conclusions before, when I was a vig. A death scene with a knife wound and a gunshot would does not mean that we are up against a mafia group and a sk. That supposed SK-kill could really be from a vig, a second mafia group, or werewolves. I advocate model angosticism.

Adel · Post Post #786 (isolation #104) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:43 am

Jitsu wrote:I've not read any of your scum games yet, but I can see how developing a reputation for acting scummy even as town can help you escape criticism as scum as well.

I was most recently scum in newbie 540 (& beat MoS in a pie E7). http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7187

Before that I was a cult member who could kill but not recruit in Doctor Who mafia http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5704, and lost.

i also lost mini 458 as a goon: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 78&start=0

and I won friends and enemies as a goon http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 20&start=0

So right now I am 50-50 as scum. In each game as scum I pulled at least one gambit.

Adel · Post Post #787 (isolation #105) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:43 am

Xylthixlm wrote:Adel, let me get you straight. You picked a random player day 1, and bandwagoned him to lynch without ever wondering whether or not he was actually scum. And you expect us to be happy about this?

do I care? no.

Adel · Post Post #788 (isolation #106) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:51 am

Jitsu wrote:
Adel wrote:he was agreeing with me, and I tend to give players that agree with me the public benefit of the doubt. I'm always skeptical.
OK, so what was it that changed your opinion of Oman from "I'm giving him the public benefit of the doubt" and being skeptical of him, to publicly declaring him "totally scum"?

I think the question you are really wanting to ask is "what made you publically state that Oman is "totally scum". There is amost always a differe3nce between what I am thinking and what I am typing.

*shrug* I didn't really think about it. I was more interested in getting him lynched than trying to figure out his alignment.
I have respect for your ability to gambit and get results. It's worked well for you in the past in some cases. In others, you could have easily cost the town the game. I've not read any of your scum games yet, but I can see how developing a reputation for acting scummy even as town can help you escape criticism as scum as well. Since you've apparently spent some of the town's currency by randomly lynching Opie with a weak case to try to out the scum and gain information, I want to know what return you've gotten on the investment. What did you learn from Day 1 regarding Opie's lynch?

It isn't perfectly clear... especially since I haven't reread since Guardian and opie's alignments were revealed.

Because I've seen this rush to reach conclusions before, when I was a vig. A death scene with a knife wound and a gunshot would does not mean that we are up against a mafia group and a sk. That supposed SK-kill could really be from a vig, a second mafia group, or werewolves. I advocate model angosticism.
OK, I agree with these statements, but it sounds like your answer here, referencing model agnosticism and listing the possibilities, is saying that it's just as likely to be one as any of the others, and it is unwise to assume one over the other, simply because knife kills are commonly attributed to an SK. Cautioning people that we may not be dealing with an SK and keep an open mind is sage advice, but then why did you say earlier that you also suspected that we have a Vig and not an SK?

Because I suspect that there may be a vig and not an sk. It seemed like everyone was rushing to the conclusion that there was a sk, and I felt like giving a little push in the oppisite direction.

Are you saying that this situation is close enough to the previous one that you believe the role is the same?

follow this link, and judge for yourself: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=559

Adel · Post Post #791 (isolation #107) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:14 am

Xylthixlm wrote:
Adel wrote:There is amost always a differe3nce between what I am thinking and what I am typing.
Yeah, I don't think we should be letting slide players who habitually mislead the town.

feel free to lynch me then. At least I generate information that can illuminate the alignment of other players.

@Jitsu, I hadn't seriously considered that he may be scum, so I went with it with enthuasism.

Adel · Post Post #793 (isolation #108) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:28 am

Erg0 wrote:What she did was arguably not in the town's interests

unless, of course, it worked and outed two scum.

Adel · Post Post #799 (isolation #109) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:50 pm

unvote, vote:Xylthixlm

Adel · Post Post #801 (isolation #110) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:55 pm

Incognito wrote:
Vote: Oman

Actually, I'll go with that.

unvote, vote:Oman

Adel · Post Post #803 (isolation #111) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:58 pm

Why did you target Guardian or Pickem last night?

Adel · Post Post #805 (isolation #112) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 3:23 pm

I strangled Battle Mage, and the mafia shot the other guy. Because of the means of death the town started talking about there being a Sk in the game. Then Guardian claimed cop with a guilty on me and I was forced to claim Vig, and the rest of the game played out to a town loss, mostly due to me vigging townies.

Adel · Post Post #809 (isolation #113) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:17 pm

ceteris paribus?

Also, it is fun to make Oman wiggle.

Adel · Post Post #811 (isolation #114) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:26 pm

"all other things being equal" or whatever?

why not just say "all other things being equal" or whatever?

it is a pet peeve of mine.

You save 12 characters but you probably are outside of a decent percentage of other player's vocabulary by using that phrase. I think it is pretentious, but, you know,

fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt

.

Adel · Post Post #813 (isolation #115) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:35 pm

"as a rule men willingly believe that which they wish to "

people believe what they wish to be true, even if it is not.

Adel · Post Post #815 (isolation #116) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 4:40 pm

no, I rather need him to be proved scum so that I stand a better chance of survival.

my list of priorities in this game:

1. get scum lynched
2. stay alive.
3. have fun

Between Oman and CO I bet there is something like a 80% chance of one scum and a 25% chance of two scum. I'm all for it.

Adel · Post Post #821 (isolation #117) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 3:12 am

Jitsu wrote:
Oman wrote:I was getting town reads off Adel, so I trusted her.
So if you were voting Opie because you trusted Adel, why did you keep your vote on Opie the whole time even though Adel jumped on and off the Opie wagon several times near the end of the day?

exactly.

Given Adel's tendency to get on a wagon early and stay there for the duration, didn't you find it just a little odd that she changed votes several times?

note to other players: Oman Jitsu recently finished a game wher I place an "immovable" vote on someone I thouight was scum early in a day, and I left it there for the duration of the day.

Adel · Post Post #824 (isolation #118) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:39 am

Adel wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:Adel, of your three suspects, why do you want to lynch opie today?
1. I am confident that he is scum. Mat_S would be too easy to lynch and there is a possibility of him being a VI. Also, I have trouble seeing him as scum independant of opie. Incognito doesn't really seem that scummy to me, sometimes I get a little carried away with myself.
2. I predicted opie's lynch pages and pages ago, and I like being right.
3.
I want to draw the NK
(suck that scum, ha ha!)

@Incognito: think about that contradiction a little more.

Adel · Post Post #828 (isolation #119) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 2:05 pm

Erg0 wrote:It's obvious WIFOM, but I'm not really sure what it was supposed to achieve.

my survival.

Adel · Post Post #831 (isolation #120) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 4:49 pm

Adel · Post Post #844 (isolation #121) » Fri Mar 07, 2008 3:18 am

Xylthixlm wrote: I'm leaning towards Adel being scum - his explanation for the opie wagon sounds like an excuse rather than a reason. If he really thought that the best day 1 play is to lynch randomly, then he wouldn't have vote hopped to Guardian and back.

I don't think you have any real understanding of my playstyle.

Adel · Fri Mar 07, 2008 10:02 am

I'm feeling you on Jitsu's relative scumminess, Partick. I consider CO far and away the most probable scum, with Oman and then Jitsu following. I'm still going to push for the Oman lynch first because I feel like he could easily slip away following a CO lynch regardless of how it turned out.

======================================================

Votecount #34

Oman - 2 (Incognito, Adel)

ChaosOmega - 1 (Erg0)

Not voting - 6 (Matt_S, ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu, Oman)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

Adel · Post Post #854 (isolation #123) » Fri Mar 07, 2008 2:21 pm

Incognito wrote: Adel, you played with Jitsu previously in Mini 518. Did you notice if he often spent a lot of time kinda hovering around the Little Italy forum in that game?

no. I think I know where you are going with this, and I don't think it will work out for you.

Adel · Post Post #856 (isolation #124) » Fri Mar 07, 2008 4:00 pm

no, as in I didn't notice.

A person's presence in a forum

can't

indicate that a person is actually online. I have firefox open mafiascum.net as one of a couple dozen tabs at application launch. With auto-login, my name shows up in the forums probably about 16 hours a day. Jistu could easily have been reading past games. There are probably a half-dozen other perfectly legitimate reasons you saw his name but not a post here. That is why I always look at

post frequency by game

. If he is active in other games but not here then you've identified both that the person is online

and

that the person has time to post.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... uthor=Adel
Links you to the first page of my post history. As a rule of thumb, if a player has made more than two pages of posts in other games then you know that player is really lurking. I can't lurk in any game I'm in for this reason. Sometimes I manipulate my rate of posts in several games at the same time to fuck with another player trying to get that kind of read on me.

That critical linkage doesn't exist for Jitsu.

Like all decent methods, that just lost its effectiveness by being mentioned, which is why I don't talk about my methods much.

Adel · Post Post #861 (isolation #125) » Sat Mar 08, 2008 3:19 am

Erg0 wrote:I don't see any reason at all that Oman would "slip away". His alignment isn't really linked to CO's at all.

FoS: Erg0

big slip,
the logic internal to this post
presumes that CO is innocent.

Adel · Post Post #863 (isolation #126) » Sat Mar 08, 2008 3:56 am

I think he could also slip away following a lynch that revealed Co to be scum.

Adel · Post Post #864 (isolation #127) » Sat Mar 08, 2008 3:58 am

Adel in 850 wrote: I'm still going to push for the Oman lynch first because I feel like he could easily slip away following a CO lynch
regardless of how it turned out.

Adel · Post Post #866 (isolation #128) » Sat Mar 08, 2008 4:00 am

Oman wrote:So...you think CO and I are mutually exclusive scum now?

no.

if Co is scum then Oman may be scum
if CO is not scum then Oman may still be scum
if Oman is scum then Co may be scum
if Oman is not scum then CO may be scum

Adel · Post Post #869 (isolation #129) » Sat Mar 08, 2008 4:49 am

I stand by what I've said. The FoS is valid. You simplified my case down to what you all ready knew to be true: that CO is not scum. You wrote your post based off of that assumption.

Adel · Post Post #871 (isolation #130) » Sat Mar 08, 2008 5:13 am

Incognito wrote:Adel, could you explain how you think Oman could slip away? I think I know what you meant, and I
think
I know how you think it could possibly happen but I'd like to hear it from you first before saying.

I'd rather not.

Adel · Post Post #874 (isolation #131) » Sat Mar 08, 2008 5:20 am

Incognito wrote:BLAH.

Interestingly I somewhat agree with your FoS.

it ain't a ringer though, unfortunately.

Adel · Post Post #882 (isolation #132) » Sat Mar 08, 2008 2:20 pm

Erg0 wrote:I don't see any reason at all that Oman would "slip away". His alignment isn't really linked to CO's at all.

A lynch revealing CO to be scum would make it harder for Oman to "slip away" which does link Oman's alignment to CO's.

Now do you see it?

Adel · Sun Mar 09, 2008 10:07 am

Erg0 wrote:
Adel wrote:
Erg0 wrote:I don't see any reason at all that Oman would "slip away". His alignment isn't really linked to CO's at all.
A lynch revealing CO to be scum would make it harder for Oman to "slip away" which does link Oman's alignment to CO's.

Now do you see it?
Are you stating that as a fact, or are you saying that's what I'm saying?

i'm saying that is the fact that your post ignored.

Adel · Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:58 am

Erg0 wrote:There is no reason not to lynch the person most likely to be scum, especially with the possibility that we have an SK (though
Sane
cop would be an unusual fakeclaim for an SK to make).

I fixed it for you.

Adel · Post Post #895 (isolation #135) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 1:28 pm

well, after a watcher and a tracker both die after you claim cop to escape a lynch...

Adel · Post Post #904 (isolation #136) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 1:46 am

mod: what is the status of the Chaos Omega prod?

vote: Chaos_Omega

Adel · Post Post #918 (isolation #137) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 7:18 am

Incognito wrote: LOL! I told you guys Guardian was scum!

exactly. We were right, just a little early.

Adel · Post Post #920 (isolation #138) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 1:16 pm

based on guardian's last post i now feel that he is the sk

Adel · Post Post #923 (isolation #139) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 1:30 pm

he replaced in thinking that he would be mafia, and walk away from a "2 dead power roles from night 1" disaster for the town with one win and one loss.

On the other hand, Guardian is hella good at identifying scum,
so I'm willing to

unvote

and let him direct my vote for this day:
I will vote for whomever he votes for (save myself) and if we don't
lynch scum, we'll lynch Guardian tomorrow. If there are two deaths
tonight unless one of them is mafia, we will lynch Guardian tomorrow.

heh, I just thought of a bastard mod role:

bastard mod cop/vig role pm
You are a cop. Each night you can investigate another player by sending me a name via PM.
You win with the town

mod note

Player is really a paranoid-cop and vig. He both kills, and gets a "guilty" on each player he investigates.

Adel · Post Post #926 (isolation #140) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:18 pm

@um, yeah. I think it will result in more nailed scum than the alternative.

Adel · Post Post #928 (isolation #141) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:29 pm

heh. you're lost in the foam my friend.

~~~

discordian algorithm is my alt

~~~

Did you know that I've claimed scum as town before?

Adel · Post Post #938 (isolation #142) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:50 pm

hmph, I never felt that I was a scummy player, I just take risks sometimes.

Adel · Post Post #939 (isolation #143) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:52 pm

anyhoo, this post totally doesn't sound sincere now...

Xylthixlm wrote:The question is not whether someone does something as both town and scum. The question is whether someone does something
equally often
as town and scum.

Barring evidence that Adel does, in fact, do the same number of stupid gambits in every game regardless of alignment, I think I'm entirely justified in taking stupid gambits as scumtells.

r u scumz?

Adel · Post Post #942 (isolation #144) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:10 am

Xylthixlm wrote:Oh come on. First Adel says opie is scum (262, 374). Then she backtracks day 2 and says that she picked opie randomly because a random lynch is better than letting the town choose a lynch (756, 783). However, if that's true, then her vote hopping day 1 makes no sense! So the only explanation is that she's lying
again
, but people are letting her slide on it because she lies as town. How many times are you going to let her get away with saying "I didn't really mean that"? Most players wouldn't even get away with it
once
.

The reason a totally random lynch day 1 is a bad idea is that it provide no information for a later informed lynch. I spent day 1 generating information.

I don't think I will be quite as easily to lynch as you currently suspect. And just to fuck with you head a little more, please take a look at this page which serves as an example of me applying information.

Adel · Post Post #951 (isolation #145) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 8:50 am

Patrick wrote:So whilst we can't know for certain, I find it reasonably likely that his lack of motivation to do anything today is because he was scum.

Somehow I find reasonably likely that he was a cop and was like "well, I'm fucked" and gave up.

Like I said earlier, if opie isn't scum then matt_s must be.

vote:matt_S

Adel · Post Post #953 (isolation #146) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 9:11 am

oh, and something I sould point out, despite my standard scummy play I've never been lynched as scum, and I've only been lynched once out of my last 10 completed games. In fact, out of the six times I've been lynched, ABR was pushed my wagon four of those times as part of a revenge fantasy he was acting out. I'm damned hard to lynch, as this game points out. MoS and Adele were not able to lynch me. In the post-game MoS claims that he thought that I was his scum buddy, but I don't believe that.

Adel · Post Post #955 (isolation #147) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 9:18 am

did I not format it correctly or something?

here, let me try again:

unvote, vote: Matt_S

there, that should make it a real vote.

Adel · Post Post #958 (isolation #148) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 9:36 am

Jitsu wrote:
Adel wrote:Like I said earlier, if opie isn't scum then matt_s must be.
I'd like to hear your reasoning behind this.

if over half of the players ask for it I will provide it.

Adel · Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:48 am

Matt_S wrote:
Erg0 wrote:/third. Also not going for a Matt_S lynch. Adel, you need to stop pointing out your own meta.
Is it legal for me to third this? Adel blindly following Guardian seems oddly different from being the leader day 1.

Adel wrote:Like I said earlier, if opie isn't scum then matt_s must be.
I thought it was the opposite. Or am I forgetting something?

Actually it is probably most like my behavior towards ABR in Open 61 -- Friends and Enemies, if you want an accurate meta read on me take a look at it.

Adel · Tue Mar 11, 2008 11:49 am

Xylthixlm wrote:Adel, do you agree that if you later say your vote on Matt_S was not serious, we should lynch you?

unless he is mafia and Guardian really is a Sk, then yes. In my opinion it is a sincere vote.

Adel · Tue Mar 11, 2008 12:08 pm

i think you may be right, but only with the former but not the latter. it will work out, you'll see.

Adel · Tue Mar 11, 2008 12:44 pm

Erg0 wrote:
Adel wrote:hmph, I never felt that I was a scummy player, I just take risks sometimes.

Adel wrote:...despite my standard scummy play...
Which is it?

whatever you want to call it, it is the same one I used in my last seven games as town. I won in five of those games.

Adel · Tue Mar 11, 2008 12:59 pm

Erg0 wrote: I'll put my theory forward if she won't explain.

i'd rather change the subject and get back to lynching Matt_S

======================================================

Votecount #39

Guardian - 2 (Erg0, Oman)

Matt_S - 2 (Guardian, Adel)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)

Not voting - 4 (Matt_S, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu, )

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

Adel · Post Post #978 (isolation #154) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:26 pm

because guardian is voting for him, silly, I am as well :p

Adel · Post Post #982 (isolation #155) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 1:57 pm

i thought I covered it, and you guys were just kidding around :(

Adel in 923 wrote:he replaced in thinking that he would be mafia, and walk away from a "2 dead power roles from night 1" disaster for the town with one win and one loss.

On the other hand, Guardian is hella good at identifying scum,
so I'm willing to
unvote
and let him direct my vote for this day:
I will vote for whomever he votes for (save myself) and if we don't
lynch scum, we'll lynch Guardian tomorrow. If there are two deaths
tonight unless one of them is mafia, we will lynch Guardian tomorrow.

lol @ incog.

Adel · Post Post #984 (isolation #156) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:11 pm

You don't want to roll with me: I'm a tar baby. The more you fight the more you'll just get stuck. You would be better off just recognizing me as being like a lurker except I produce information. I win games as town. Besides, i will probably draw a nk soon enough that you won't have to worry about determining my alignment, the mod will do it for you.

Adel · Post Post #989 (isolation #157) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:28 pm

Matt_S wrote:So... who isn't going to be a lynch candidate today?

everyone except Guardian or Oman, but I'm open to being convinced otherwise by Guardian.

Adel · Post Post #991 (isolation #158) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:35 pm

damn double negatives.. the meaning got lost. I think tht only Guardian and Oman should be the lynch for today.

~~~

@matt_s: why was that the thing that made you finally vote for me?

Adel · Post Post #995 (isolation #159) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:44 pm

Matt_S wrote:However, now they're the only ones you want to lynch? That also seems odd, so I want an explanation first. Why did you change your mind?

I didn't. Lynching Oman is a just a much higher priority than lynching Guardian to me based on my assessment of player's scummyness, but I also know that Guardian can nail scum easily, and it is conceivable that he is really a non-sane cop.

This is vollkan's first mini-normal, ad I know he saw the various posts in various threads in MD that spit hate on cops. The was, how-ever, asomewhat of a consensus that there have been too many cops in mini-normals, and there should me more alternative investigation roles (like watcher and tracker) and also more non-sane cops. I find it especially likely that cop-Guardian's sanity is Paranoid instead of Insane.

Adel · Post Post #998 (isolation #160) » Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:53 pm

Matt_S wrote:But why did you suddenly stop following Guardian?

my vote is still on you.

Adel · Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:05 pm

scum often see me as being an easy lynch.

Adel · Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:20 pm

@ Xylthixlm: nice trick. In IRC that probably would've worked.

You set it up, you waited for the contradiction to resolve.

Here is how it really went down:
first I said

he replaced in thinking that he would be mafia, and walk away from a "2 dead power roles from night 1" disaster for the town with one win and one loss.

On the other hand, Guardian is hella good at identifying scum,
so I'm willing to unvote and let him direct my vote for this day:
I will vote for whomever he votes for (save myself) and if we don't
lynch scum, we'll lynch Guardian tomorrow. If there are two deaths
tonight unless one of them is mafia, we will lynch Guardian tomorrow.

heh, I just thought of a bastard mod role:
bastard mod cop/vig role pm
You are a cop. Each night you can investigate another player by sending me a name via PM.
You win with the town

mod note Player is really a paranoid-cop and vig. He both kills, and gets a "guilty" on each player he investigates.

then Guardian voted for Matt_S, so I did as well with

Patrick wrote:
So whilst we can't know for certain, I find it reasonably likely that his lack of motivation to do anything today is because he was scum.

Somehow I find reasonably likely that he was a cop and was like "well, I'm fucked" and gave up.

Like I said earlier, if opie isn't scum then matt_s must be. vote:matt_S

note that "Like I said earlier, if opie isn't scum then matt_s must be." is the reason I gave even though I linked matt_s to opie as scum not the other way around during day 1.

It was a serious vote, just not for the reason I gave. I said that I would follow Guardian's vote, and so I did.

For scum, especially one who plays so much irc mafia or scumchat mafia, it is easy to make the mistake of identifying a case that appears significant when it actually is only a well-crafted illusion.

Xylthixlm should definitely be on the list of probable scum worth considering for today's lynch.

Adel · Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:41 pm

Xylthixlm wrote:Translation: "I don't play IRC but I'll make up some intelligent-sounding bullshit anyways. OMGUS"

translation: saying OMGUS discredits anyone's case, so i'm going to say it. I'm used to people tl:dr coherent points, so I'll neglect to mention that I'm not voting for Guardian or responding to the fact that Adel exploded my case.

Adel · Wed Mar 12, 2008 3:27 pm

Xylthixlm wrote:I'm going to push for the Adel lynch first because I feel like she could easily slip away following a Guardian^2 lynch regardless of how it turned out.

you suck for stealing my case against oman and applying it to me.

Adel · Wed Mar 12, 2008 6:15 pm

Oman wrote:Moogle.

I <3 Oman

Adel · Wed Mar 12, 2008 6:17 pm

Guardian wrote:Oman's recent post makes me want to headdesk :\. If he is pro-town and playing this way, shame on him.

Adel, respond:
Guardian wrote:I can't say I find Adel's play through the last few pages very townlike. I'm sure she'll call it information gathering, or something. Adel, if you think Oman should be the lynch (or me), then why vote Matt_S with me? Why not say "Guardian, that's nice, but I think Oman should be the lynch if not you." Why vote with me? And you say you need convincing about Matt_S from me -- what do you think of my case? Have you, at least, read through his posts as I've asked?

I want a crosskill to occur tonight. I want to lynch scum today. I believe that supporting Guardian makes both more likely.

Adel · Wed Mar 12, 2008 6:42 pm

that is exactly why I want to lynch you instead.

Adel · Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:28 am

I thought that sharing this pdf with y'all may illuminate some things.

Adel · Fri Mar 14, 2008 5:33 pm

keep in mind my view of this game recently shifted, and I haven't worked through it. There should be significant differences between a couple of day ago and now.

Jitsu wrote:Adel, you have given a reason why you're voting Matt_S today, but I want to know what your reasoning was *yesterday* for finding Matt_S scummy if Opie were scummy.

Matt_S said something that made me suspect that he was making a newbie scum mistake with his partner. I clearly remember that it was a conditional scum tell on matt_s, it would only be likely true if opie was first proven to be scum.

Also, why did you withhold your explanation for voting Matt_S until five players agreed?

to be a pain in the ass

Also, when I asked what you learned from yesterday's random wagon on Opie, you mentioned that you didn't know for sure because you needed to reread with the knowledge of Opie/Guardian^1/Pickem's alignments. Have you completed your reread?

nope

If so, what did you conclude?

Is Guardian more likely to be a cop or SK?

town then scum then sk.

Adel · Sun Mar 16, 2008 8:30 am

I find the non-sane cop to be a more likely role than SK. That cop ma kill his investigative target, or we may have a vig. I don't think we have a SK.

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:00 am

Adel wrote:I find the non-sane cop to be a more likely role than SK. That cop ma kill his investigative target, or we may have a vig. I don't think we have a SK.

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:51 am

Xylthixlm wrote:
Adel wrote:I find the non-sane cop to be a more likely role than SK. That cop ma kill his investigative target, or we may have a vig. I don't think we have a SK.
So what you're saying is that you're the SK?

yep, totally. How did you discover my true identity?

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:16 am

me being right about guardian being a cop is probably going to get me lynched tomorrow. damn it.

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 6:09 am

I am not a sk, Xylthixlm is an idiot, so I decided to play a fool for a fool.

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 6:10 am

unvote, vote: Guardian

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 6:12 am

unvote

indecisive.

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 9:49 am

knowing that a scummy person isn't scum is often considered to be scummy.

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 12:24 pm

I tend to believe in it.

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 12:54 pm

vote: Incognito

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 1:01 pm

The only people I would consider lynching today are Oman and Guardian^2. Adel's a possibility also because of this: This thread.

It's really messing with my mind.

he case against Adel has intrigued me, and I've certainly been thinking about the possibility of her being scum more closely. I don't think she's today's lynch though.

3) Something else bothers me about Xylthixlm. I'm actually shocked that nobody called me out about this apparent contradiction. Previously I mentioned the following:

Incognito, in post 977, wrote: The case against Adel has intrigued me, and I've certainly been thinking about the possibility of her being scum more closely. I don't think she's today's lynch though.

Oman or Guardian^2 is today's lynch.

but about two posts later I placed a vote on Adel over something that was actually rather trivial. I did this for a few reasons:

a) A number of people seemed to criticize Adel for her actions (particularly Xylthixlm during Day 2) but prior to my vote, Adel had yet to receive a serious vote for the whole game.

b) I wanted to gauge reactions. The reactions I received were interesting: Matt_S followed suit out of nowhere with a vote on Adel and then probably more importantly Xylthixlm (a person who was giving Adel flak for most of Day 2) finally decided to place a vote on Adel as well! Why did he wait so long? Why did he have to wait until after two people voted to finally place a vote on a person he had such strong feelings against?

In short, I think Oman and Guardian^2 are scum. The scum partner of one of these two is a little less obvious but judging from some of Xylthixlm's reactions, I could see him being a possibility. And tbh, Matt_S's vote on Adel taints him a bit too. I might need to do another reread of him to see if I still receive the same feelings about him.

I've been evaluating your Adel suspicions and should be able to put something together about her soon.

what is the scumtell here?

there are two:
1. making the bed. Scum players pretending to be scum hunting often broadcast their move before they make it. No sudden moves. the idea is to be consistent and to have a prior reason for placing a vote. Predictable voting behavior is the goal.
2. Pushing the Guardian and Oman wagons, but not hard enough to stand out. Scum like to fit in with the majority opinion.

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 1:24 pm

guarded, careful play.

There has been nothing adamant about your promotion of the Oman and Guardian wagons. You state that you find them scummy, and you state that you support their lynch, but you don't do anything to bring their lynch closer. You have not pushed for their lynch, you have not tried to get them lynched. You have been more interested in fitting in with the masses and I'm calling you out on it.

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 2:05 pm

I did something that looks scummy to my eyes.

Adel · Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:13 pm

have you seen scum implode this way before? Do my actions in this game remind you of any previous game where I was scum?

Adel · Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:15 am

optimal play is for crosskills.

Adel · Tue Mar 18, 2008 5:21 am

Adel wrote:he replaced in thinking that he would be mafia, and walk away from a "2 dead power roles from night 1" disaster for the town with one win and one loss.

On the other hand, Guardian is hella good at identifying scum,
so I'm willing to
unvote
and let him direct my vote for this day:
I will vote for whomever he votes for (save myself) and if we don't
lynch scum, we'll lynch Guardian tomorrow. If there are two deaths
tonight unless one of them is mafia, we will lynch Guardian tomorrow.

this post is still true.

Adel · Tue Mar 18, 2008 5:27 am

we don't need guardian^2 the friendly sk for information, we need him to nk scum tonight. Otherwise we face 7 living players tomorrow where 3 are mafia, and we may as well just fricking lay down and die.

I want patrick to explain why in more detail, it is necessary.

Adel · Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:00 am

Patrick wrote:
Adel wrote:I want patrick to explain why in more detail, it is necessary.
Even if we assume for a second that he's definitely an SK, it's extremely risky to keep him alive. He has an anti town win condition, so we know that anything he's saying is to help keep himself alive. If there comes a situation where it's in his best interests to go against our wishes, he'll do it without hesitation, and that kind of situation could easily arise (where we couldn't lynch him because we'd immediately lose to the mafia).

But really, I see no reason to assume he's telling the truth anyway. I was leaning towards voting him even with the cop claim, all his new claim has done is removed any possibility that he's protown, making it a more solid lynch. I don't see how claiming SK has made it anymore likely that he actually is an SK, can you explain to why you think so? I think it's likely Guardian is mafia.

this is exactly the rationale mafia would forward. look, the town right now is at an underpowered disadvantage, and our best chance is for guardian to nk mafia members.

Adel · Tue Mar 18, 2008 7:04 am

unvote, oman

Adel · Tue Mar 18, 2008 9:34 am

matt_s: check out this game for an example of guardian doing his scumhuntung thang as scum: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7270

lt;dr : as scum guardian replaces in a hammer scum with his first post, and then killed another scum with his nightmove. Town wins, despite being primarily made up of fools.

Adel · Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:56 pm

At this point I think it would be best for us to sit back and let Guardian ask whatever question he wants from whatever player he wants until he is comfortable that he knows who we should lynch today

and

who he will NK tonight. Unless he kills two mafia between today and tonight, we lynch him tomorrow. That way it doesn't matter if he is mafia or a Sk. We ge the results we want, or he dies.

Adel · Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:03 pm

Erg0 wrote:
Adel wrote:matt_s: check out this game for an example of guardian doing his scumhuntung thang as scum: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7270

lt;dr : as scum guardian replaces in a hammer scum with his first post, and then killed another scum with his nightmove. Town wins, despite being primarily made up of fools.
So you think that we should just let him decide what's in the town's best interests? Do you have that little faith in your own ability to find scum? I mean, I could point out games where I've found the scum, and I'm sure that many others here could as well.

dude, he killed two scum with one game post.

He read the game cold and was right twice. It alo shows him killing two mafia with one post when he had what was effectively an SK alignment. The town one. I understand that this game we are in is not a mountainous game, but I think it is a safe bet that Guardian will perform the same way again if he is a sk.

The scum will almost always NK each other if they possibly can.

Adel · Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:25 am

Guardian wrote:The *BEST* and only case in lynching me is about equivalent to the *WORST* case in not lynching me.

quoted for absolute truth

Adel · Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:28 am

Jitsu wrote: How is 1-1-1 a town win again?

assuming that the sk can die by nk:
if it is 1-1-1 going into night town typically wins due to scum crosskills.
If it is 1-1-1 at the start of the day then no-lynch is the best move for town.

Adel · Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:31 am

if I were mafia in this scenario I would totally claim SK and get Guardian lynched, providing my scum buddies a great chance to buss me and look protown.

Oman's lack of activity is totally scummy. I think he is our best bet for a mafia lynch

Adel · Wed Mar 19, 2008 7:51 am

Guardian: I think Jitsu is scum willfully ignoring the evidencce in an attempt to drown out the defense of you that is the single thing most likly to keep the mafia from winning. I'm tmepted to lynch him today so that you can NK Oman tonight.

Adel · Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:21 am

Xylthixlm wrote:This complicated analysis is stupid.

If it is 5-3-1, and we lynch Guardian, then it is 4-3 tomorrow. That means three consecutive days of LyLo. The chances of winning that are miniscule. On the other hand, if we don't lynch Guardian, we have a better chance - even though it isn't entirely under our control.

it really is that stupid... which is why I suddenly think that Jitsu is scum. This would be his first game as scum, and I think he just tried to pull one over on the town.

Adel · Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:22 am

EBWOP: stupid = simple

Adel · Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:13 pm

Xylthixlm: why did it take you so long to generate that?
Why did it take you so long to weigh in with an opinion on lynching a claimed SK?

Patrick should know better.

Jitsu left out evidence in a suspicious way.

Oman should post.

mod: prod for oman, please

Likelihood of being mafia: Oman > everyone else.

Adel · Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:23 pm

I am voting Oman.