Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Jitsu]

Vote: Incognito

Going incognito is not pro-town behavior, obvobv

[Jitsu]

vote: Erg0

for being a secret Aussie.

What's a "secret" Aussie?

[Jitsu]

I'm not sure that threatening a dayvig based on a player's general knowledge could really be considered a scumtell.

I'm all for arbitrary daykills, but announcing them beforehand is just silly. It takes all the fun out of the "OMG! A daykill! Who did it?! Do you think they're scum?!" reactions.

Not that I think you actually have a daykill.

Why are arbitrary daykills a good idea?

=======================================

Votecount #2

Erg0 - 3 (Adel, Guardian, Oman)

Matt_S - 2 (ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm)
pickemgenius - 2 (opie, TrustGossip)
Xylthixlm - 1 (Matt_S)
Oman - 1 (Erg0)
Incognito - 1 (Jitsu)
opie - 1 (Incognito)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)

Not voting - 0 (nobody)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

[Jitsu]

Why are arbitrary daykills a good idea?

Why is lynching a good idea?

Lynching and daykills are both fine, if done properly; it's the arbitrary part I disagree with.

Granted on D1, there is usually not much information to go on, but I still think that it is in the town's best interest to go for the highest percentage plays and those that give the most information, rather than choose targets arbitrarily.

Do you disagree?

[Jitsu]

Ew semantics. I think I was thinking the same definition as Jitsu (number 1):

1. Determined by chance, whim, or impulse, and not by necessity, reason, or principle: stopped at the first motel we passed, an arbitrary choice.

Yes, this is the definition I had in mind. I merely heard what I thought was an anti-town statement by Xyl and wanted to hear his explanation.

His latest explanation, in response to Guardian, is satisfactory to me, but I don't know why he didn't just say that earlier unless he was trying to see who was ready to make a mountain out of a molehill.

[Jitsu]

Erg0, its just, this might be a Texas Justice sort of thing.

Becuase I'm not sure if you do, but I know I have a daykill.

This is for Underground Mafia:

Daykill Jistu

Interesting. What exactly did I do to you in Underground Mafia to deserve this? As I recall, you were one of the few people that I did not attack very hard in that game. Plus I even slowed down a lurker wagon against you, which was good because you were the Doc in that game.

Adel's attempt against Erg0 was (painfully) obviously a gambit, but you are actually saying you know you have a daykill?

Are you claiming to have Vig ability here?

I have to believe you are joking, but haven't you just opened yourself up to LAL if I don't turn up dead? Or are you just emboldened because nobody's said anything about Adel's gambit?

While I'm on the subject, what was your motivation for asking Erg0 about having a DayVig? To learn if this is a hidden Texas Justice setup? That sounds like a horrible reason to ask someone about their role that early on D1. If we do have such a setup with lots of people possessing Vig abilities, it will be painfully obvious soon, as few people ever seem to be able to hold onto a bullet for very long in Texas Justice.

I don't know what you're up to, but you aren't earning any townie points in my book.

Unvote

FoS: Oman

[Jitsu]

I'd like everyone to examine the Erg0 wagon and comment on it, say if it is the best place for votes or not, and explain why. If you think there is a better place for votes, explain why that is the best place.

This sounds a little like a scum trying to lead the discussion around an innocent townie, but since you could just as easily be a helpful townie looking to return the discussion back to the matter at hand, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

I really don't see much of a case against Erg0. Most people in the world probably don't know that the capital of Australia is Canberra, and not Sydney, and I could see why an Aussie might be slightly miffed at that. Erg0's "threatened dayvig" seemed a lot more like a joke than an actual DayVig claim to me (he did put a smilie after it), unlike Oman's recent post where he declares that "I know I have a daykill", which sounded a lot less like a joke.

Erg0 did open the door just a little bit with what looked like a joke DayVig claim (which is why I don't think you should ever joke about something like that), but the pro-town play is to let it go if you think it's a joke, as protecting any town power roles is a lot more important on D1 than learning about the setup.

Erg0's post that we should not discuss power roles is a definite pro-town statement (as well as being correct). I think Erg0 did make a mistake when joking about the DayVig, but Oman's fishing and making a more serious-sounding DayVig claim without a good reason to, is a more serious offense to me. A good townie shouldn't be pressing other people for role info or divulging their own on D1.

I think I just convinced myself to:

Vote: Oman

.

[Jitsu]

I like Opie's post above.

@Guardian: Since you're voting for Erg0 and do seem to be making an attempt to push his wagon here, why don't you explain why you think Erg0 is more deserving of a vote than Oman?

[Jitsu]

I like Opie's post above.

What about it? Do you agree?

A fair question. I should explain further. I do agree with the points he brought up. I agree with Opie when he said that he most associated "arbitrary" with Xyl's meaning 3b. That is how I most often use the word as well. And I also echo Opie's uneasiness about you pushing the Erg0 wagon.

You seemed to be leading the discussion on Erg0's possible lynch without really stating much of your own case on him. I've seen that tactic used by scum before to distract townies if they are pushing a lynch and don't have a strong case to cite. Does that mean you are scum? Not necessarily, but I find it at least somewhat suspicious.

As for the Votes and FoSes, I obviously agree with the one on Oman.

As for you, I can see the reason for some suspicion against you (

FoS: Guardian

), but I'm not ready to put a vote toward that right now when I think Oman's actions are worse.

I am reserving judgment on Adel because I thought her gambit was easily seen as such, thus not much of a tell. Gambits and high-risk moves are a big part of Adel's play style, so it is harder to tell from that whether she is town or scum.

I'm not sure who is most deserving of a vote right now. Erg0 has since claimed he does this every game, but the "hang separately option" and "I just want you to hang" bit raised my eyebrows, and made me think he was the best wagon at the time.

The (presumably fake?) day vigs don't really say anything to me.

Opie's post actually heightened my suspicion there -- I'd really like a good explanation from both opie, and Jitsu who categorically "liked opie's post" to explain why everyone voting Erg0 is worthy of suspicion.

Opie's post heightened your suspicion of what?

The "hang separately / just want you to hang" thing is worth remembering to me (I never said Erg0 was completely innocent), but I don't think it's worthy of a vote by itself. Since you feel that the fake dayvig's don't say much, your reason for voting Erg0 boils down to the "hang" statements above?

You don't know who is most deserving of a vote right now? That's a funny thing to say from someone who is pushing Erg0's wagon and asking the players to explain their votes for him and justify votes elsewhere when your own vote for him seems to be lacking in terms of a reason.

And saying I "categorically" liked Opie's post is an overstatement of my opinion. I said "I liked it", not "I categorically agreed with every word".

So, let me ask this: Why don't you feel Oman was acting suspiciously?

[Jitsu]

While I find it a little odd for Erg0 to not confirm or deny a dayvigging ability, it's understandable to not want to claim an ability. It's always to his advantage to deny it, since claiming gets him nightkilled. However I don't see why he doesn't just deny it. Even if he can, it doesn't hurt the town to deny it. I don't consider that to fall under "lynch all liars"

You may not consider that to fall under "lynch all liars", but some players are fanatics about following the "lynch all liars" rule pretty strictly.

Neither confirming nor denying the ability is really the right thing to do, as it gives the scum the least amount of information possible.

[Jitsu]

Okay, I used the dayvig as a catalyst for discussion. I used Jitsu because we were in a game together (in fact, I protected him one night and stopped a NK that allowed us to win the game). Jitsu did very little.

I think you have your facts a little mixed up. In Mini 518 (Underground Mafia), the game you refer to, GunslingerKB protected me and blocked the NK on me N2 before resigning (see post 1313). You replaced in for him early in D3. You did choose really well on your two protects N3 and N4, but you did not block any NKs. Did this slip your mind?

As for my role in that game, people can read/skim it and decide for themselves, if they care.

P.s. It was a joke, Jitsu, if I had a real one, I would've killed Erg0. Hey, it worked in Texas Justice.

I already figured it was, because your reason for wanting to dayvig me didn't make any sense. What was the purpose for that joke? Another catalyst for discussion?

What exactly is your case on Erg0 again?


I wasn't aware that I was signing up for "DayVig Joke Mafia". I wish someone would have told me.

[Jitsu]

So if this isn't "DayVig Joke Mafia," I suppose that it's "One-Game Meta Argument Carryover Mafia"?

I agree with you that the meta discussion is getting old and has little relevance to this game. Whether intentional or not, Oman's recent comments, some of which I pointed out were less than truthful, could possibly be seen as painting himself in a good light and me in a poor light. If Oman is going to continue to discuss our prior game, I feel it's only fair that I be allowed to defend myself.

[Jitsu]

Unvote Guardian, Vote Erg0

Three reasons:

1. He wants us both to hang, I say him first.

2. Look how scummy he is

3. I'm now on the largest wagon

Point 1 is weak. I don't really believe that he wants both of you to hang, but even if he does, I don't find that scummy. Even if Erg0 is scum and you are innocent (which I assume is what you are asserting here), him wanting both of you to hang would mean trading one townie for one scum. At this point, that's a far better deal for the town than for the scum.

Point 2 is circular craplogic. You can't say that someone is scummy to prove that they are scum. Tell us, why is he scummy?

Point 3 is totally irrelevant. Being on the largest wagon doesn't make you right.

[Jitsu]

I do agree that random wagons are fine for gauging reactions. Now that the Erg0 wagon has been admitted to be random, I can begin to re-evaluate.

Of course, Oman and Guardian had to try to sell the Erg0 wagon as semi-legit to get a good reaction, but when it became reasonably clear that nobody else was jumping on and the case was crap, I was waiting for Oman and/or Guardian to jump off or admit it was a random wagon. It just took a bit longer than I expected.

On a quick reread or the relevant posts from Opie's argument, Oman and Guardian don't sound quite as scummy as I had originally thought, but Guardian's reaction to the pressure on him was interesting. Instead of really addressing the points against him or simply stating he was trying to get reactions (the normal response to being called on pushing a random wagon), he retaliated against Opie and I and, and he did seem just a little evasive with his answers. Was it because Guardian is town and thus was justified to suspect Opie and I for attacking him (and holding back to see our reactions), or was it a scum that was a bit flustered for getting caught on something apparently insignificant? I don't know. At this point, my opinion of Guardian is neutral.

As for Opie, I'm not sure what to think. The random wagon on Erg0 did stick around longer than I would have expected. I admit I got a bit confused myself about what was serious and what was not. I think Opie could have made the same mistake. Could Opie be a scum that got caught overreacting? Yes. I'm not ready to place a vote on Opie yet, but I will be watching what happens with his wagon.

My suspicion of Oman is not what it was before. However, I still don't like Oman's attempted fish related to Erg0's vig ability, even if it was done in conjunction with a joke/random wagon. A townie should not be seeking information on any townie power roles that early just to get info on the setup, joke or no joke.


@Adel: Do you really feel that you have enough information so far on this game for your models to give an accurate answer right now? What kind of percentages are your models giving you?

@Matt: If you don't support random bandwagons to promote discussion, what do you prefer instead?

[Jitsu]

Opie: I'll tell you what was wrong with that picture: three townies were on a wagon of another townie without you or any of your scumbuddies being on the same wagon.

@Adel: I will consider your case on Opie, now that you've actually presented one. Some questions:

I can follow your logic and see why you think Guardian is pro-town. Obviously you will assert that you are pro-town. So why do you think Oman is pro-town?

What is your estimation of the chance that Opie is scum?

Also, have you ever pretented to use your models when playing as scum to get a town player mislynched? If that scenario hasn't happened yet, would you do so in the future?

[Jitsu]

1. I'd expect Oman to behave otherwise if he were scum.

Do you mean that he wouldn't have cited such an obviously weak case for a vote on Erg0 and instead would have come up something more believable?

[Jitsu]

Jitsu, I find myself really disliking the above post. Firstly, could you please point out where Guardian finally admitted that the wagon on Erg0 was indeed random? Secondly, I can't help but get the feeling that you're trying to wipe your hands clean of your earlier actions. You seem to be casting some suspicion towards opie for reacting the way he did around the time of the Erg0 mini-wagon but earlier on, it was you who was claiming to agree with opie's initial posts against Guardian.

Could you please explain these apparent inconsistencies? Did the re-read really make you feel that dramatically different about Guardian?

I wouldn't say I feel dramatically different about Guardian -- a little less suspicious is probably a better way to say it.

When I first read Guardian's post 65, I thought Guardian and Oman were serious about the wagon, and I interpreted Guardian's comments as roughly: "please comment on the wagon on Erg0. If you think there is a better place for votes (instead), justify it." It sounded a bit like subtle peer pressure to get people to join/support the Erg0 wagon as opposed to making a case elsewhere. When I mentioned that I liked Opie's post 73, I thought from reading Opie's comments that he was thinking about the same thing. Indeed, in Opie's post 75, Opie mentioned how those some words sounded like "Those of you not voting for Erg0, explain yourself". That was really the same thought that I had.

I have read a lot of games Guardian as been in (but comparatively few of Oman's). Many times that Guardian has been good scum in those games, I thought he did a good job at flying under the radar. So in some subconscious way, I think I had primed my brain to look for this "subtle Guardian-scum", and I thought I found it in his post 65.

In post 77, as I was clarifying what I agreed with, I was somewhat suspicious of Guardian, and I saw that Opie was ratcheting up the pressure on him a bit, so I added an FoS on Guardian to both to express my suspicion and see what would happen. In reality, an mFoS is probably closer to what I was really thinking, but it sounded weak and unlikely to get much of a response. A vote would have been too much. An FoS seemed about right. I did indicate in 77 that I was not asserting that I agreed with everything Opie had said. I agreed with some of Opie's points and wanted to see where things would go. After that, I sat and watched as Opie pressed his attack.

Now, fast forward. I wasn't trying to imply that Guardian admitted the wagon was random, he obviously never did. I was confused for a while, even up to the point where I attacked Oman's case. When Oman repeated the same crappy arguments, I thought he was being serious. When Oman later admitted he wasn't, I realized that the entire wagon was probably just random/designed to gauge reactions from the beginning because neither Guardian nor Oman would likely be stupid enough to try to seriously push such a crappy case all the way to a mislynch.

In light of this, I went back to reread post 65 again with a more open mind and I found that I was also able to interpret it as an honest attempt to provoke discussion, and so my original suspicions against Guardian *may* not have been inaccurate. That is really what changed some of my opinion against Guardian. But even so, I thought (and still do) that Guardian's reaction to the posts from Opie and me was a bit evasive and that he did retaliate somewhat without ever really addressing the points against him. I have two conflicting theories: Guardian was a frustrated townie who tried to advance the game and got a bit annoyed when he was attacked for it, or that he was scum trying to subtly lead the town and got caught. So my overall impression of him now has shifted back to neutral.

Adel's posted case about Opie is what opened my eyes to the possibility Opie could be scum. After hearing the case, I still don't know if I believe it or not, but I do admit it is possible. I wasn't really trying to throw suspicion on Opie as much as I was acknowledging that Adel's scenario was possible.

[Jitsu]

I need to do some heavy rereading to sort things out over the last few pages. I did do some rereading of Matt to prepare to answer Adel's question above, and I did notice something funny.


@Matt:

I'd like an explanation of your Post 114:

As for opie, he does seem to be trying pretty hard, referencing all the posts and whatnot, but I don't think that's voteworthy by itself.

After some rereading of your posts, I don't understand what you meant here. You say that Opie is trying hard but that's not worthy of a vote? It almost sounds here like you know Opie to be guilty and slipped.

Please explain.

[Jitsu]

Everyone, I'm very sorry that I've been away for a number of days. I've been sick and haven't had a lot of time to analyze the thread.

I will post some comments in a little bit for Erg0/Incognito and try to catch up on all the other goings on as well.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu - Reaction to Oman's daykill is neither here nor there, I don't think anyone really falls for that one any more. Post 129 set off major alarm bells for me, as he tries to paint himself as having been aware for some time that the wagon on me was non-serious, and was simply waiting for someone to admit it. The tone of his previous posts, such as 98 (where he responds seriously to Oman's joke case), don't tally with this assertion. His subsequent defence against Incognito's case smacks of revisionism, as he was obviously attempting to give the impression in 129 that he'd known for a while, whereas in 180 he says that he only realised this when Oman said it was a joke (in 120). Overall, 129 looks like a massive backdown brought on by the realisation that the position he has taken is seen as suspicious by the town as a whole. I wouldn't be surprised at all if opie is town caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, and Jitsu is the scum that was lucky enough to be given the opportunity to run away.

I admit that my phrasing in the first part of 129 was very poor and gave an incorrect impression of my thoughts. I apologize to the town for that, but it was unintentional. I don't fault Incognito or Erg0 for pointing that out that inconsistency. Erg0's case on me was well explained.

I'll try to explain. I absolutely did bite on Oman's joke case as being serious. This is my second game of Mafia ever, and I really was unprepared for an opening game stuffed full of that many gambits, joke cases, fake dayvig's and the like. I really wasn't expecting that all along that the case wasn't serious. If I had, I would not have attacked Oman like I did. In post 98, I thought there might be a chance that Oman wasn't completely serious, but I really wasn't sure. *At that point in time*, I did expect that if it were a non-serious case, that Oman would have admitted it as such. I miscalculated though, because I admit Oman was right that there was really no reason for him to jump off the wagon at that point. Post 180 is a more clearly worded explanation of what I was thinking. When Oman did finally confirm that the case was not serious, I realized that at least some of my assumptions were wrong, so I went back and reread to try to get a fresh perspective on things.

As for the turnaround on Opie, my earlier explanation is accurate. I liked his initial thoughts on Guardian in post 73 and when he pointed out in 75 that he thought Guardian intended "Those of you not voting for Erg0, explain yourself" in his post 65, it explained my suspicions well. But when he made the FoS on Adel, I disagreed (I even said such in 77). In retrospect, I probably should have asserted my disagreement more forcefully. It was a difficult line for me to walk because I thought some of Opie's observations had some merit (I still do think that some of them did), but I didn't agree with some of his other conclusions. It looked like Guardian was trying to lump me together with Opie at that point and since I didn't agree with everything Opie said, I tried to distance myself from Opie a bit, but I feel I explained why I was doing it.

When Adel presented her case on Opie, I did agree with her point that Opie seemed to overreach a bit by extending his suspicion from the person he really thought scummy (Guardian) to Oman and Adel largely by association. I agreed less with some of Adel's other points.

(Another post to comment on more recent events will be more forthcoming.)

[Jitsu]

Okay, I have taken notes on the rest of the game, and I am caught up on reading, but I still need to analyze and sort out what's been happening as there's been a lot of finger pointing going on.

I do have some preliminary questions:

@Adel: Can you explain why you think Matt_S's probability of being scum is dependant on Opie being scum? Also, how do you know that Guardian is town (post 321)?

@Xylthixlm: What specifically about Opie's post 184 gave you a townie reaction on him?

@Guardian: Why specifically do you find Erg0's joking scummy (post 217)?

@Incognito: In 99, you ask Oman to provide links to the games he cited in 87. Did you ever look at this meta and draw any conclusions from it?

[Jitsu]

I re-read Erg0, cuz I had this creepy suspicion about him. And I liked his case on Jitsu. 129 really does seem like a back-out/turnaround. But, Oman posted that he had been joking a bit before... so I could see Jitsu reacting to that.

I don't really know what else to say. Saying that post 129 seemed like a back-out/turnaround is pointless, but I've already admitted that it was a turnaround. I explained my reasons as best I could. My opinions did change because I decided to reread with a more open mind and then saw other possibilities on how to interpret things. I am always seeking additional information to validate/contradict my theories, and I am not afraid to change my mind if I think I might be wrong.

Guardian, now more than a few pages ago, you didn't seem to agree with the case against me. But now you like Erg's case against me? I'd like you to explain specifically what changed your mind, please. Though actually, I'm not convinced that you really believe the case on me as much as you say you do.

Regardless of whether that's true or not, I'm not going to crumble or crack under the pressure, because I'm innocent, and it is in the town's best interest that I not do so.

My explanations of what happened were the truth, and I've already tried to clear things up a couple of times. If someone has questions for me or wants me to explain something further, I am more than happy to do so. I don't fear being in the spotlight because I have nothing to hide.

Also, I can see that the pressure on me is benefitting the town. Things should be a little clearer to me once I see how this wagon proceeds against me and how people react to it.

In any case, I no longer think Oman is the best place for my vote. I'm still trying to figure out who is, but now, it's best that I

Unvote

for now.

I find it highly unlikely that Pat or Erg0 are scum with Jitsu, in any event.

I know that are right (because I am innocent), but I admit I'm curious to hear how you came to this conclusion.

[Jitsu]

My mind changed, significantly? Re-reading the case made me want to vote you.

I don't know if it was a significant change or not. In 307, you said you didn't see the inconsistency. Now you do. Erg0's case was decently made, but I don't see what details he added about the turnaround that Incognito hadn't touched on before. Maybe you could enlighten me?

Though actually, I'm not convinced that you really believe the case on me as much as you say you do.

How much is that, anyways?

Regardless of whether that's true or not, I'm not going to crumble or crack under the pressure, because I'm innocent, and it is in the town's best interest that I not do so.

Ah, but if you were scum, you would totally crumble and crack under pressure, to help the town out?

I don't fear being in the spotlight because I have nothing to hide.

That's cool. I totally fear the spotlight. Spotlight is one step away from lynch, and me being lynched is about the worst contribution I can make for my faction.

I find it highly unlikely that Pat or Erg0 are scum with Jitsu, in any event.

I know that are right (because I am innocent), but I admit I'm curious to hear how you came to this conclusion.

Their cases on you aren't one sentences FOS's. They are long, detailed, and they have both been trying to encourage others to lynch you. BUSing you when no one else was suspicious of you with so many other potential lynch targets doesn't make sense.[/quote]

[Jitsu]

Ugh, my login timed out and my reply got largely lost. I will fix it later tonight.

[Jitsu]

My mind changed, significantly? Re-reading the case made me want to vote you.

I didn't say it was significant, but in post 307 you said "Erg0, my world has not been set on fire. I don't really see the inconsistency that you claim to see." Now you reread and looked harder and now you see enough to vote for me. It may or may not be a dramatic shift from what you were thinking previously, but it's enough of a change that I was inspired to ask what part of the case on me you found compelling.

How much is that, anyways?

I don't know, but I got a feeling from post 359 that you might be town trying to feel me out. I thought from your statements "129 really does seem like a back-out/turnaround. But, Oman posted that he had been joking a bit before... so I could see Jitsu reacting to that." and "I was sympathetic with Erg0's case, and Patrick's, so I want to see where this wagon takes me." This suggests to me that you see the case on me and want to apply a little pressure/probe further to see the reactions to feel me out, but you're still not really convinced yet that I am actually guilty. That is a slight town tell to me.

Ah, but if you were scum, you would totally crumble and crack under pressure, to help the town out?

Of course not. It was merely a statement, not something designed to be a town tell. I don't know how I would react as scum, because I have no experience playing as scum (including this game).

That's cool. I totally fear the spotlight. Spotlight is one step away from lynch, and me being lynched is about the worst contribution I can make for my faction.

I assume that by saying "my faction", you are speaking in general terms here, across games? You actually made a good point here, as when I do draw a scum role someday, I will need to fear the spotlight. (I am going to get an awful meta when that day comes, I think.) But in terms of this game at least, the spotlight has already found me. I did not seek it out. My thought is, well, the damage has been done and the spotlight is on me now. I can choose to continue to act transparently and try to help people see the truth, or ...not. I chose the first option.

I am not afraid of some scrutiny on me, because as a pro-town player, I have nothing to hide. Maybe being in the spotlight is a step away from a lynch, but most players have do have the spotlight on them at some point during the game. I think that it is just as telling what someone does once s/he is in the spotlight (sometimes even more so) as it is how good they are at avoiding the spotlight in the first place. Also, since the new information people are receiving is (I think) beneficial to the town, me being in the spotlight is not completely bad, in itself. But don't construe that as meaning that I am not afraid of being lynched, because I am. I prefer not to be lynched since I am innocent, but if it is going to happen, I at least want everyone to weigh in on the matter, so that the town has good information for Day 2. I'm not giving up and accepting that as my fate though.

Their cases on you aren't one sentences FOS's. They are long, detailed, and they have both been trying to encourage others to lynch you. BUSing you when no one else was suspicious of you with so many other potential lynch targets doesn't make sense.

That's good logic.

I'd like to hear Jitsu's response to my response though. I expect him to paint me as scummy D-:.

I'm puzzled why you didn't keep your expectation to yourself until after I answered so you could get a better read off my response.

I feel that most of the questions you asked are good, especially how you seemed to feel Adel out regarding her case on Opie. That's a wise move given Adel's playstyle. I disagree with the assertion that you are asking a lot of questions but not doing much with the answers. I think you are trying to get reads on people, and that there is a logical reason for most of your questions, but that you are not disclosing a lot of your opinions and keeping things close to your chest. Some might consider this a scumtell (and is probably why some of the other pro-town players don't know what to think of you), but I'm not convinced it is a scumtell in this case. I'm still unsure about you, but even though I've seen some possibly scummy bits here and there (more so early on), I believe your play overall has been helpful to the town. My read on you, at the moment, is leaning town.

[Jitsu]

I don't want the town to lynch him. He reacted how I would expect him to if he were town again,

as opposed to opie who didn't. Their interaction is what really sold me on opie.

Can we lynch him now, please?

(emphasis mine)

Can you explain you mean by the bolded part, please?

[Jitsu]

Right now I'm not sure whether Jitsu was trying to cover himself with his original reversal, or if he's trying to cover himself for the reversal now. The explanation makes some sense, but I have to ask:

Jitsu, I got the feeling when reading your post 129 that you were trying to give the impression that you'd figured things out earlier than you actually had. Do you think that this is a fair statement?

I think the question is ambiguous. I could read it as "Do you think it is fair that I came to that conclusion?" or "Is that really what you were intending to do in 129?". The answer in the first case is yes, but in the
second, it is no, assuming I understand you correctly.

The thought that the wagon could be random/not serious did enter my mind early on, in a way, but I didn't give it much weight at the time. I remember thinking (around the page 2-3 timeframe), "could Oman and Guardian really be this transparent?". But I honestly didn't give that a lot of thought because Oman (and Guardian) seemed to continue acting like he was serious about the wagon. Lacking any admission by Oman or Guardian, I continued to operate under the assumption that the wagon was real.

I did figure that Oman's DayVig attempt on me was a joke (because his reason made no sense to me -- I never really attacked him in Underground Mafia and we were both members of the town that won), but I had not yet figured out that his vote on Erg0 was also a joke. When Oman admitted in 87 that the DayVig was a joke and said that he would have killed Erg0 with it instead, I was trying to figure out why. This was when I started to really wonder if his case on Erg0 was serious. But even then, I wouldn't say I had "figured it out" at that point.

When I asked Oman to restate his case against Erg0 in 92, I expected that forcing him to restate his case would either get him to either explain things better (if he were serious) or that he would back off and admit that the case wasn't really serious. He did neither, so I didn't get either of the two possible reactions that I expected from him. This is what I meant when I said in 129 that the "wagon on Erg0 lasted longer than I expected". I was not trying to imply in 129 that I had figured things out earlier than I really had, but after re-reading 129, I was able to see how people might have gotten that impression.

When Oman did admit in 122 that he was not serious about the wagon, I felt a little foolish. Since I was operating under the incorrect assumption, I felt obligated to reread (starting around the time of the Erg0 wagon) with a more open mind.

[Jitsu]

That's just WIFOM. If not designed to be a town tell, why post it?

Honestly, I don't have a good answer for this. It did not enter my mind that it was just WIFOM, and therefore I maybe shouldn't have posted it. I was just posting what I was thinking.

Why only as scum for you? You are generally good at diffusing pressure as town? I'm bad at is, historically, sometimes I've even gotten very angry. That and convincing people of things, are my mafia-weaknesses. I'm usually right, and I'm usually town... anyways, this is neither here nor there.

It's tough for me to make general statements about my play, because this is only my second game. In my first game (Underground Mafia) I was vanilla townie, and I played well enough to avoid much suspicion altogether. I got one semi-serious vote in the middle of day 1, and I was never voted or seriously attacked after that. I drew the doc protect (from GunslingerKB, who Oman later replaced), cop investigation, and NK (which failed) all during N2. My strategy from the beginning of that game was to act transparently as possible to help the town, and to defend myself well so that I would not get into the spotlight in the first place. It worked in that game and I am using the same strategy here again because I am pro-town. I'd love to use that strategy forever (it fits my personality because I'm very honest in real life), but I am aware that if I do draw a scum role someday, that I'm probably going to be screwed by the meta.

I think my strength is analyzing details. Players remarked that I was observant in my first game (regarding details and inconsistencies, I think), but I think I am weak at picking up on and interpreting subtle tells because I just don't have the experience. It takes me a while to get enough information to feed my analyses. In this game so far, with all of the finger pointing and an abundance of lynch candidates, I admit I was quite confused and a bit overwhelmed early on. I think I have a better grasp of things now.

This is the first time I've ever really been in the spotlight, so in face of the pressure, I've decided to just simply tell the truth because I don't know what else to do. I'm not afraid of the spotlight in the sense that I can't *actually* slip up -- since I have nothing to hide. It's still possible that something I say could be twisted or misconstrued and people could believe that I am guilty, even though I'm not. Thus, I'm still afraid that I could be lynched.

Can you help me make sense of all this? It appears contradictory.

I think I answered this above. If I didn't, please say so.

Some might consider this a scumtell (and is probably why some of the other pro-town players don't know what to think of you), but I'm not convinced it is a scumtell in this case.

Which players are you talking about, here?[/quote]
Since you seem to be treating me pretty fairly, I'll do one better and expand your question to include all of the players who might think it is a tell.

Xylthixlm is the main person I had in mind. His scumdar summary in post 162 seems to suggest this (this post may have led to Incognito's thoughts later in 215), and I also think it helps to explain some of his Cons mentioned later in post 300. But I don't think he really suspects you much for it. Like me, I think this is just a reason why he has some lingering doubts on you. I think he is probably town.

Opie. I think part of his case on you touches on this. I agree with some of Adel's case on him as I said, but I still have my doubts. Next on my "to do" list is to re-read him in light of recent events and see what I think.

Patrick. Some of his comments in 345 and 350 look like they could possibly be influenced by the tell I mentioned, even though he didn't specifically say that. He seems to have more of a neutral opinion of you. I didn't have much of an opinion on TrustGossip, and though I'm starting to get an impression on Patrick, I'd like to see some more comments from him before I make up my mind.

Incognito. Point (1) of his case against you in post 215 seems to be addressing that. He really seems to think it is a major scumtell.

Erg0 seems to agree with Incognito, from his comments in 242. I want to keep my opinions on them to myself for now since Erg0 is likely to respond to my post 383 and Incognito hasn't weighed in yet on recent events.

[Jitsu]

@Guardian:

I wasn't very careful in how I worded what I said. I didn't retract it because I didn't realize I had made a mistake. When I said "pro-town players" I meant "people that I believed were pro-town". I don't expect you to believe me, but it's the truth.

Adel, can you say who you think Opie's partners are?

In any case, I will do a comprehensive reread, as I promised.

[Jitsu]

You didn't just say "pro-town players" you said "other pro-town players". You were addressing me -- so you meant "(I think you, Guardian, are pro-town) people other than you that I believe are pro-town"?

I was making an observation about some of the protown players in the game (of which I am one). It would have been more correct to say "players in the game I believe to be protown, other than you and myself" -- but that wording probably did not come to my mind because it doesn't sound very natural.

I was drawing a distinction between my thoughts (I saw the tell but didn't necessarily think it meant you were scum) and thoughts of other people I believed or suspected might be were protown (and believed the tell more than I did).

Xylthixlm was the main person I had in mind. I think from his comments, that he believes the tell more than I did (given that he seems to think you are neutral). But even with that, I thought Xylthixlm's analysis on you was fair and he considered all the evidence against you well. That is a town tell to me.

Patrick was another person I thought might be town but believed the tell a bit more.

The others, I thought believed the tell more, and I want to reread before commenting on them.

[Jitsu]

at this point, if not Jitsu, opie seems

great

Why?

I've heard and agree with the assertion that Opie extending his vote on you (on the Erg0 wagon) to Oman and Adel is scummy. But "with so many other potential lynch targets" around (your own words) why do you think Opie is a

great

candidate? I haven't finished my re-read so maybe I'm forgetting something, but what else is there to the case on Opie?

I'm still interested in Adel's response to my 380, also.

I'm not defending Opie here -- in fact, I am trying to determine if I should vote for him. But I'm not quite sold on him yet. I'm willing to listen to a sales pitch.

[Jitsu]

Adel, can you say who you think Opie's partners are?

Matt_S seems awefully likely.

@Guardiuan: I'll go through all of it later, but I think Jitsu should be an investigation target and not a lynch.

I'm reading from your tone and phrasing here that you are leaning toward Guardian being town. Is that correct?

Also, you said in in 391:

I'm starting to think that the Jitsu is the scum-backed alternative to their buddy getting the axe. I am not happy about it. Oman and I are drinking the same Kool-Aid on this one.

Something doesn't quite fit for me here.

For sake of argument, let's hypothetically assume that there are at least three scum in the game, citing past meta.

So Opie and Matt_S are the likeliest scumpair? Alright -- let's assume that's truealso. If I read your first sentence in 391 correctly, it sounds like you are starting to think one of the people voting me is a third scum scum? Is that a correct assessment?

If one of the people voting me

is

a third scum, then how does Incognito fit in to all of this (from your assertion in 252 that he is scum also)? Do you still think Incognito is likely scum?

I don't really think you are scum right now, but I'd like you to clarify your current thoughts.

[Jitsu]

@Adel: Just to be clear, I'm not asking you to name all (hypothetical) 3 or 4 scum and trying to hold you to it, because that's really not fair. What I'm trying to do is reason out the scenario(s) you have presented to try to judge for myself whether or not you've reached the correct conclusions from your observations.

@Everyone: Regarding the post above, a "scum scum" is a scum that's slightly scummier than a normal scum.

[Jitsu]

I decided not to press on this earlier

, but I am interested how she "knows".

Why did you decide that?

[Jitsu]

I'm even unsure if we should be pressing now -- what if it is somehow role-based?

I don't believe that.

I merely stated that I thought Adel was leaning toward you being town. In response,

you

asserted that she

knew

you were innocent, and cited detailed examples why.

If you are innocent and knew or suspected all along that Adel had role-based information that you were innocent, why, as town, would you risk outing her by asserting that she knew you were town and give detailed examples why?

[Jitsu]

My suspicion that Adel has role based information has decreased significantly.

Why? She hasn't been very helpful since post 136 --> less pro-town.

That doesn't make any sense either way.

If you are innocent and really thought Adel is scum, you shouldn't have been unsure to press the issue.

If you are innocent and did think there was even a ghost of a chance Adel was town with role based information that you were innocent (which is what you seemed to assert), you shouldn't have said anything, to avoid possibly outing her.

Unvote

(if necessary)

Vote: Guardian

Now who's caught?

[Jitsu]

I don't think so, Guardian.

Regardless of what you may have thought before in 289, if you really thought Adel were scum *now*, you should not have been unsure to press the issue because she might have role based information. You should have attacked her with it, or at least waited to hear her response to your 403.

If you thought *now* that there were any chance at all she is innocent with role based knowledge that you were innocent, then you should not have said anything.

It doesn't matter if you changed your mind from earlier or not.

[Jitsu]

Guardian: I think Adel's voting you because your past couple posts have been terrible. You've just been stumbling over yourself and alternating between backing Adel 100% and suggesting Adel is not helping the town.

I'm keeping my vote where it is, but I'm more suspicious of Guardian. You've just made a lot of posts that strike me the wrong way.

Why are you keeping your vote where it is even though you're more suspicious of Guardian?

[Jitsu]

Bad wording. I meant that I'm more suspicious of Guardian than I was before. At the moment, I'm more confident in opie being scum than Guardian.

So why are you more confident in Opie being scum than Guardian being scum?

[Jitsu]

@Jitsu: wanna vote for opie with me?

unvote, vote opie

Guardian is by far my strongest suspect right now. Due to the inconsistency I mentioned in 418, and Guardian's subsequent responses(how he appears not to see my case at first, then offers excuses, and only then tries to apologize, when ChaosOmega supports him), I'm almost certain Guardian is scum now.

I'm still trying to figure Opie out. I haven't done my full reread yet, so I think I need to get on that.

I still think you're likely town, but I admit, as of the last few posts, I can't quite see where you're going here. Why did you change your vote to Opie? Why is Opie a better lynch than Guardian at this point? Also, do you have anything else to add to your stated case on Opie?

Given that I think there is a high probability that Guardian is scum and that we can potentially learn good information from his lynch, I'm somewhat reluctant to change my vote right now. But I'm certainly willing to listen, if you've got something compelling.

[Jitsu]

Guardian reads mildly protown to me. opie, not so much - his signal to noise ratio is too low.

Since I've generally thought of you as town, I'm interested in your opinions. I'm wondering why Guardian is reading pro-town to you -- the last I remember he was coming up neutral to you. Also, is there any other reason (besides signal-to-noise ratio) why Opie is reading less town to you?

==================================================

Votecount #19

opie - 5 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Guardian, Xylthixlm)

Guardian - 4 (opie, Incognito, Jitsu, Adel)
Xyltixlm - 1 (Matt_S)

Not voting - 2 (Erg0, Patrick)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
==================================================

[Jitsu]

I've done a reread, focusing on Opie.

I still agree with Adel's initial point against him, namely his overreaching from Guardian onto Adel and Oman. In mid-day, he wasn't around a lot (mostly due to V/LA, I guess). I didn't think his questions were particularly effective in midday, but I also think several people had pegged him as scum by then though and seemed unwilling to entertain his questions seriously because they didn't believe him.

In the later part of the day, he still didn't post an awful lot, even though there was a lot of content Guardian (his prime suspect) exchanged with the other players. Some analysis and some back and forth with Guardian as of late though. I'm a bit concerned why he hasn't posted much lately (after his V/LA), and I think he should have been taking the votes against him more seriously. Also, there was something I didn't like about his 184, in response to Adel's case. He does summarize her points fairly well, but even though what he said about Adel's case is correct, he doesn't seem to ever explain/address the assertion that Adel's central point against him (overreaching from his vote on Guardian to FOSes on Oman and Adel).

Still though, I also think that Guardian is scum, so I have to ask myself if it makes sense that Opie bussed Guardian all day without ever switching to another candidate. With how early he started bussing, and with all of the potential lynch candidates for Opie to hang a vote on, I have to lean toward it being somewhat unlikely. I have asked several people now why they think Opie is so scummy, and most of it has been a rehash of earlier stuff. I have not heard any attempt to make a strongly worded case against Opie since Adel's 136.

People say that he is a great candidate and some seem pretty sure he is scum, but I've yet to hear something really compelling. I agree with some of the points against Opie, and while I think it's possible he could be scum because of them, but I just can't find the smoking gun on him. I very well could be missing something, but I still can't help but wonder if people were THAT sold on Opie then why aren't they trying to sell his lynch to the other townies better by presenting a strong case on him?

I think Guardian really blundered in response to the "Adel knowing he's town bit", and his reactions afterward made me pretty sure that he is scum. I just got the impression after my 407 that Guardian was desperately trying to find some way out of the lynch by attacking and defending various people and looking for a place to hang a vote somewhere to get out of the spotlight. I think a townie would not have accused Adel of knowing too much and then not follow through with it. I also think he as townie, would have owned up to the mistake and apologized sooner without trying to deny what happened or spread the blame around to cover his own mistake.

Guardian is my top suspect, and his 498 sounds like a poor attempt to not be caught on the Opie wagon if he comes up innocent. Guardian wouldn't have believed a power role, and he 80% doesn't believe vanilla townie? What the hell? What was there left for Opie to say? What *would* you have believed, Guardian?

ChaosOmega is my next best suspect. He's lurked for most of Day 1, dropped a vote on Opie without explaning why, and even now, he's still has not given a real reason for it. When asked about it previously, his reasons were very weak, and when asked to explain them further, his response in 318 is to say he "hasn't liked the tone" of Opie's posts. Then in 420, he has what seems like much stronger criticism on Guardian, saying "your past couple posts have been terrible", which were ChaosOmega's stronges comments of the entire game so far. He says "I'm keeping my vote where it is, but I'm more suspicious of Guardian [than I was before, according to a later clarification]. You've just made a lot of posts that strike me the wrong way." Then in 450, in response to my question, he says that he is more confident in Opie being scum than Guardian, without explaining why. Frankly, I'm tired of his votes without any reason and what seems like a really poor attempt at distancing from Guardian in 420.

I will echo my comments from before. I am pretty happy right now with my vote on Guardian. If people want me to change my vote to Opie, I need to hear a convincing case to that effect.

[Jitsu]

There's damn little he could have said in a claim to make me believe he's town, Jitsu. That's why I still support the wagon and didn't unvote.

I find this paragraph about my response to his claim to be very bullshit:

If I had said "oh wow, I REALLY believe him now" you'd have been like "OMG WTF changed stance!!" The way you are interpreting my response, I can't conceive of a way I'd have responded that would have made you say "Oh, reasonable response, points for Guardian."

Maybe not, since I don't believe you, but I wouldn't have attacked you further had you simply said that you didn't believe him and you were keeping your vote there. That would have at least sounded natural.

Saying that you 80% didn't believe his vanilla townie claim sounded strange, and asking the other players if another lynch could be found before deadline did not sound natural at all. It sounded like an attempt to set you up for unvoting Opie later if others were to agree, or an attempt to find a way off the wagon were Opie to come up town.

And your lack of open-minded ness is pretty appalling, you are predicating all possible suspicion of opie on the *assumption* that I am scum.

That's funny, because I believe I made several points about why I found Opie suspicious that had nothing to do with you. Would you like me to point them out for you?

I also dislike how you are piggybacking onto mine and other's suspicions of ChaosOmega -- setting up CO lynch 4 tomorrow ne1? And even then, your suspicion of CO is

predicated

on me being scum -- which is absolutely horrible play, since I'm not scum.

I think you have your facts mixed up again. I was the first one to question ChaosOmega on his suspicious post 420. It was in my post 444. And I followed up with another question after he responded because I didn't like his answer. As far as I can see, you did not mention your suspicion of ChaosOmega until well after that, in 476.

In addition, I cited several other reasons why I thought ChaosOmega is scum that have nothing to do with you. Again, maybe I can point those out for you?

I would be much more willing to entertain the possibility of your innocence if you didn't keep screwing up.

[Jitsu]

@Adel: How do you feel about Guardian right now?

[Jitsu]

unvote, vote: Guardian

daytalk just ended, and now I think he is scum

Something in the meta, I assume? Can you elaborate?

[Jitsu]

the CO wagon totally fits my expectation for what a late wagon, driven by scum, as an alternative to their scumbuddy's wagon.

Fos: Patrick and Erg0

Not counting their voting for CO, do you find Patrick and Erg0's actions suspicious today?

[Jitsu]

Something keeps bugging me.

Opie has been the deadline lynch for.. most of the day, has he not? But yet, he still hasn't gotten enough votes to be lynched. In the games I've read, I can't remember seeing a lot of Day 1's going all the way to deadline without a hammer.

There's got to be a clue in that somehow, but I'm still not sure what it means.

Maybe I should do some meta and see if there are any patterns there.

[Jitsu]

Post 620:

Right now, between Guardian and opie, I have a pretty good feeling on Guardian and a neutral to scummy read on opie. I'm going to stay on the opie wagon because it's the only way to keep Guardian from being deadline lynched.

Post 662:

Correction: "Oh, we're close to deadline, let me make sure Guardian doesn't get lynched."

So in 620 you have a "pretty good feeling on Guardian" and a neutral/scummy read on Opie. But in 662, you seem to be insinuating here that ChaosOmega-scum is staying on the Opie wagon to keep Guardian-scum from getting lynched.

Do you have an explanation for this apparent change of heart on Guardian?

[Jitsu]

... No. I'm saying that *I* am staying on the opie wagon to keep Guardian from being lynched.

I see what you mean now. My apologies.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu, you've been hovering round alot today. What do you make of all this?

I tend to agree with you. I've had the feeling that Opie will probably come up town for a while now. I was never really sold on the Opie wagon, and I think that CO and Xyl's votes on Opie are/were suspect. I wondered if I should have voted Opie awhile ago, but my mind was made up when nobody on his wagon offered any other compelling evidence against him.

I feel really stuck. I don't want to see a probable townie [Opie] get lynched (even though it would be a good source of information). On the other hand, even though I still find ChaosOmega scummy (for all the reasons I mentioned earlier), I feel much less certain of his guilt than Guardian's, namely because he's given us far less to work with. Plus, without a claim from ChaosOmega, I'm more than a bit worried about "shooting in the dark", so to speak. I really don't like either option very much.

I haven't liked some of Xylthixlm's posts as of late. I think he recently has tended to focus a lot more on the small number Guardian's positive posts recently and not given sufficient weight to the negative ones (odd to me, given that he seemed to be considering both very well earlier). I am asking myself why he thought Guardian was neutral before, but more town now (especially when I thought Guardian has been much more scummy recently, compared to early in the day.) I also felt Xyl's vote on Opie was wagonny, but I'm suspicious of Xyl's jumping off Opie's wagon too. It seems to me like Xyl may have seen the tide turning away from Opie and is now finding a way off the wagon. But if Opie *is* town, that is actually the right thing for a townie to do. So I'm not quite sure what to think about Xyl. If I had to give a read on Xyl, I'd say I find him slightly scummy, but he's not my concern at the moment.

I think a Guardian/ChaosOmega/Xylthixlm is plausible, but unfortunately, I'm not yet convinced that that explains everything very well yet.

I was really hoping we could get a Guardian lynch, as he fits my lynch criteria of someone I find scummy that will give good information. But it looks like that won't happen.

Really though, the only important decision I have to make right now is whether to vote ChaosOmega, and I'm torn.

[Jitsu]

...Plus, I wanted to see (if ChaosOmega is scum) if any of his buddies would bus him

[Jitsu]

EBWOP:
I think a Guardian/ChaosOmega/Xylthixlm scum trio is plausible...

[Jitsu]

Something's really wrong here, people.

We have three townies dead. If I'm reading the night scene correctly, the Mafia took out Guardian, and an SK took out PEG. Guardian was the "obvious" investigation target, since other than ChaosOmega (who would not investigate himself), and Opie, Guardian was the only one to get more than a couple of votes, I believe.

But here's the thing that bothers me most. Right after the day started and ChaosOmega declared Guardian guilty, ChaosOmega's wagon steamed off and put him at L-1 before Incognito unvoted. Day 2 is still only a few HOURS old (real time), and already we had someone get to L-1 with very little discussion?

NO! THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SCUM WANT!

In my opinion, we are focusing way too much on the cop claim right now. I suspect that Incognito is thinking the same thing I am -- the scum are trying to speedlynch ChaosOmega. This could be true regardless of CO's alignment. If CO is town, then the scum have a lynch without a lot suspicion. If CO is mafia, then they have cut loose their damaged goods and distanced themselves from a fakeclaim, while looking town in the process. If CO is the SK, well, then the mafia would have gotten rid of a threat they'd have needed to deal with eventually anyway. Regardless of the situation, a quicklynch would deprive the town of a lot of information. So a CO lynch is a win-win-win situation for the Mafia right now. That's why I want to put the brakes on it -- at least for now.

I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch ChaosOmega's today -- his claim is a little hard to believe at this point. But what's the hurry? He's not going anywhere, and we can always lynch him later today. If he really is the right play, then that should hold up after some significant discussion today. If he doesn't hold up, well, that tells us something too. I say we put ChaosOmega on the back burner for the moment and revisit him later today.

The other thing that ISN'T being discussed is the Opie wagon, which is something that we really should be talking about. Six people were on that wagon for a while at one point, keeping him at L-1 for some time. As far as I can see, seven of the players voted for Opie at some point after the random phase: Oman, ChaosOmega, PEG, Xylthixlm, Guardian, Adel, and Matt_S. Two of those players (Guardian, PEG) are now confirmed innocent (nothing is 100% in mafia, but this is probably as close to that as we can hope for). That leaves Oman, ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm, Adel, and Matt_S. The only people that did not vote for Opie after the random phase are Erg0, Patrick, Incognito, and myself. I'm still making up my mind about Erg0, but I feel that Patrick is probably town, and I'm leaning toward Incognito being town, especially after he unvoted to disrupt the speedwagon on ChaosOmega. Since I know I'm town, then that leads me to believe that Opie's wagon is where most/all of the scum were. Also, remember that Opie sat at L-1 for a long time without getting lynched. Meta says that we are dealing probably with SK + 2 or 3 Mafia here (i.e., 3 or 4 scum total).


@Adel: I want to hear that explanation you promised us yesterday, in regards to the Opie wagon and what you were thinking. I'd actually like to hear your opinions of all the remaining players.

[Jitsu]

Adel, what do you think of Oman?

totally scum.

I also suspect that we have a vig and not an sk.

@Adel: I have several questions for you.

I noticed on several occasions you acting supportive toward Oman on Day 1, and it didn't seem as if you found him scummy for most of the day. So, how did you really feel about Oman? If you didn't find him scummy early on, what changed your mind?

Did you really think Opie was guilty at the end of Day 1?

Why do you suspect we have a vig and not an SK?

[Jitsu]

The thing to bear in mind with the averages is that scum are almost always going to make a claim that has a high potential of saving them on day 1.

OK, so then why do you think CO found Guardian guilty this morning and not innocent, when an innocent cop would be much easier to believe than an insane one in a mini normal?

[Jitsu]

he was agreeing with me, and I tend to give players that agree with me the public benefit of the doubt. I'm always skeptical.

OK, so what was it that changed your opinion of Oman from "I'm giving him the public benefit of the doubt" and being skeptical of him, to publicly declaring him "totally scum"?

*shrug* I didn't really think about it. I was more interested in getting him lynched than trying to figure out his alignment.

I have respect for your ability to gambit and get results. It's worked well for you in the past in some cases. In others, you could have easily cost the town the game. I've not read any of your scum games yet, but I can see how developing a reputation for acting scummy even as town can help you escape criticism as scum as well. Since you've apparently spent some of the town's currency by randomly lynching Opie with a weak case to try to out the scum and gain information, I want to know what return you've gotten on the investment. What did you learn from Day 1 regarding Opie's lynch?

Because I've seen this rush to reach conclusions before, when I was a vig. A death scene with a knife wound and a gunshot would does not mean that we are up against a mafia group and a sk. That supposed SK-kill could really be from a vig, a second mafia group, or werewolves. I advocate model angosticism.

OK, I agree with these statements, but it sounds like your answer here, referencing model agnosticism and listing the possibilities, is saying that it's just as likely to be one as any of the others, and it is unwise to assume one over the other, simply because knife kills are commonly attributed to an SK. Cautioning people that we may not be dealing with an SK and keep an open mind is sage advice, but then why did you say earlier that you also suspected that we have a Vig and not an SK? Are you saying that this situation is close enough to the previous one that you believe the role is the same?

[Jitsu]

I think the question you are really wanting to ask is "what made you publically state that Oman is "totally scum". There is amost always a differe3nce between what I am thinking and what I am typing.

What made you publically state that Oman is "totally scum"?

[Jitsu]

What she did was arguably not in the town's interests

unless, of course, it worked and outed two scum.

Which two?

[Jitsu]

@Oman, Xylthixlm, ChaosOmega: Adel alleges that the Opie wagon was random and designed to draw out scum. What are your responses to this?

@Oman, you seemed to cite Adel's case as your major reason for joining the wagon, and you never moved your vote all day. If Adel is telling the truth, it looks very bad for you. What do you have to say about that?

@Xylthixlm: When did you start to think that Opie might actually be town? Was it really not until post 682? What about that post convinced you that Opie was a townie being taken advantage of?

@ChaosOmega: I'll ask again. What was your reason for voting Opie? Lurking is one thing, but why as the cop did you toss a vote onto the bandwagon and not give a reason for it? If your goal was to blend into the background, why do that?

[Jitsu]

I was getting town reads off Adel, so I trusted her.

So if you were voting Opie because you trusted Adel, why did you keep your vote on Opie the whole time even though Adel jumped on and off the Opie wagon several times near the end of the day? Given Adel's tendency to get on a wagon early and stay there for the duration, didn't you find it just a little odd that she changed votes several times?

Are you still getting a town read off of Adel now?

[Jitsu]

Even I can figure out that ChaosOmega is probably scum here.

I say we wait for everyone to check in, then lynch him.

Are you in a hurry to end the day?

[Jitsu]

Now that he's "role-claimed", I think he has no excuse to stay in the background anymore.

It's pretty clear to me that if he was really a cop then he'd be making some kind of effort to avoid being lynched. If he's not caught scum I'll eat my proverbial hat.

I was thinking the same thing. He doesn't seem very concerned that was at L-1 and that he is still at the top of a lot of players' lists.

Also, didn't he promise a summary of his opinions on all the players awhile ago (back on Day 1)? Whatever happened to that??

[Jitsu]

While nobody's really made any real direct accusations against me, there are some things I'd like to comment on.

In terms of my general playstyle, I tend to check the thread often enough that I look like I'm logged in for a long time, but crafting my posts tasks awhile (I put a lot of thought into them) and I don't always have the time to respond even though I'm relatively caught up. I intentionally do not post unless I have something relatively important to say, as I prefer to keep a very high signal:noise ratio. I am only playing one game at a time because it takes a large amount of time and effort for me just to do that. I do not have the experience or enough free time to handle several games at once.

Before any big post, I'm usually rereading at least a few pages back to get perspective, and if I'm citing something specific, I'll go back to reread to be sure I remember things the way they really are. If not a lot is changing, I can stay relatively caught up and post more often. But if a lot of stuff starts changing really quickly, I get lost and need to reread to get things sorted out in my head. I got a bit lost early on Day 1, and again near the end when people were jumping on and off wagons at a high rate of speed. I always put the effort in to catch up, but I just couldn't do that fast enough at the end of Day 1. I'm sorry.

Regarding the end of Day 1: I am almost never on in the early evenings or weekend days my time, as that is the time I spend with my family (wife and 2 year old). After they go to bed, then I can get on and read. If I remember right, the deadline for D1 hit during early evening Friday night for me, but even so I still made an effort to come on and weigh in on my opinion because I care about this game.

Even if I had more time to consider things, I probably wouldn't have voted for ChaosOmega at the end of Day 1 anyway, simply because I was reluctant to lynch a claimed power role, regardless of how badly timed the claim was. However, I did (and still do) find him scummy for all the reasons I've said previously. So I left my vote on Guardian. Perhaps I should have explicitly stated that, but I wanted my vote on Guardian, so that's where I left it. I really did think he was scum, but I was wrong.

I'll finish up another post I started with a suspect list.

[Jitsu]

Adel: I've seen Adel play like this in my only previous game, so I agree with the assessment that Adel could do this either as town or as scum. Gambits and traps are a bit part of her playstyle, and she is not afraid to act scummy or get lynched to out the scum. I place a much higher value on winning this game than I do attacking her playstyle. Her playstyle this game is similar to our previous game where she was town, but I'm not going to clear her just because of that. Adel is smart enough and clever enough to pull off a wagon like that and then turn around and bus her buddies to look more innocent. However, that was a big risk for her to admit that the Opie wagon was crap -- she could have been lynched right then and there. And she has been lynched plenty of times before early in games for pulling tricks like this one. Second, I think she did let slip earlier on Day 1 that the Opie wagon was crap. Look at post 436, Adel's first reason. Guardian caught this in the next post, but Adel did not comment on it. Also, I think 456 was a deliberate attempt to feel me out and when I pressed her for reasons, I think she backed off so she didn't have to explain (presumably, that the Opie wagon was crap). So there may be something of a breadcrumb there. The thing that bothers me most about her is that she seems to be more chaotic -- jumping around a lot more with her votes and shifting her allegiences more then I've seen before. I've spent a lot of hours reading this game and trying to figure out what she's really thinking, but I think it's slowly driving me insane. I've wanted to do more reading on her as scum, but it's been difficult trying to to that and keep up with this game. I can see Adel either way at this point. Her willingness to name me as her third best subject raises my eyebrow a bit. Opinion: Neutral.

ChaosOmega: I've already stated why I didn't like him, and I agree that the chance of an Insane or Paranoid cop in the game with two other investigation roles is slim, at best. He hasn't seemed to care enough about the criticism against him today either. I agree that a claimed cop who nearly got lynched for lurking on Day 1 should not be lurking on Day 2. I'm still wondering where that summary is that he promised. Opinion: Likely scum.

Erg0: Still a possible suspect, but I'm not as concerned with him as I am the three above. He was right about Guardian and Opie and wasn't afraid to say so. I'm still undecided about him, but I keep thinking if he were mafia, far less people would be agreeing with his scum picks. My top suspects now are the same three he named yesterday, so I have to give him a few townie points for that. I need to read him more. Opinion: Neutral.

Incognito: He correctly avoided the Opie wagon and questioned the reasons behind it. He wasn't afraid to state his opinions and boldly criticized the Opie wagon for what it was. True, he was on the Guardian wagon pretty heavily, but I can't blame him for that because I thought Guardian was acting pretty scummy myself. I liked how he put the brakes on the CO lynch to allow more time to think -- a slight town tell in my opinion. He seems to be actually scumhunting, unlike a number of players. Opinion: Likely town.

Matt_S: An enigma. Early on D1, he seemed desparate to have something to say and made some really bad FoSes with horrible reasoning. I don't like his simplistic view of the game, which seems to be roughly categorizing people due to simple factors like how nice or aggressive they are. He looks like a newbie to me, either way. He's done a number of scummy things, but every once in a while, he surprises me with something that comments that sound seasoned and relatively well-reasoned. In spite of the inconsistency of his play, he had chances to jump on bad wagons or rush to conclusions against townies, and he did not. I can't tell if he is a scum playing it cool, or just a somewhat confused townie. Opinion: Neutral.

Oman: I agree with Patrick's and Incognito's earlier comments. Did anyone notice how I largely stayed away from Oman (and didn't lean on Adel too heavily either) after the first part of Day 1? There's a reason for that. I thought starting around the middle of D1 that Oman and Adel could have been masons. Oman jumped on Adel's Opie wagon without a lot of explanation and stayed on it all day. When we asked Adel why we thought Oman was town, her answer was a bit evasive, and I thought that could have been a mason tell. Also, when Adel made the comment about her and Oman drinking the same Kool-Aid in response to the wagon on me, that's when I really thought it were possible. Adel has now openly said he was scum, said that she needs Oman dead to survive herself, and
mentioned that she likes seeing him wiggle. Adel may be unconventional, but I don't think she would go after a Mason-brother like that. Since that was really the only thing stopping me from attacking Oman, the emergency brakes are off now. Opinion: Likely scum.

Patrick: His logic has been good, he has stayed away from Opie's wagon, with good reasons why. He seems to be considering all of the evidence well and seems to be making good judgments without jumping to conclusions. I don't have a lot to say about him, mainly because he has generally just not acted very scummy at all. I find in general that I agree with a lot of what hehas to say. Opinion: Likely town

Xyl: I agree with Patrick's comments on him. I mentioned late yesterday how I didn't like Xyl's play the latter half of Day 1, and his posts today have not made me feel any better about him. Part of me doesn't believe his "I wanted to save Guardian" reason for staying on Opie, but when I checked on it, his vote behavior is at least consistent with it. It still sounds a little funny though. I stated that I didn't like Xyl's "let's lynch CO when everyone checks in" post either. And I don't like how he is supporting Oman now. Opinion: Slightly scummy.


My top suspect is ChaosOmega right now, Oman is second, with Xylthixlm a more distant third. I'm not sure yet which lynch would give me the most information. I want to reflect on that.

[Jitsu]

I'm still going to push for the Oman lynch first because I feel like he could easily slip away following a CO lynch regardless of how it turned out.

It sounds like you've thought about this might have a guess how Oman could slip away. Are you willing to share?

[Jitsu]

So...you think CO and I are mutually exclusive scum now?

P.S. For the record, I do think that you and CO are mutually exclusive (unlike the opie/Matt_S arguments brought up earlier in the day).

Why do you think they are mutually exclusive?

[Jitsu]

Because in my opinion, Oman being scum isn't dependent on ChaosOmega being lynched and turning up scum.

I'm confused.

Mutually exclusive means, "if one of them is scum, the other one cannot be". It would be equivalent to say "they cannot both be scum". However, that doesn't really sound like what you are saying here. Is that correct?

[Jitsu]

I never really did much care for cases like "we need to lynch X so Y doesn't slip away". There's really no substance to it and it makes it very hard to logically debate it. To me, it's too easy of a way for scum to get someone lynched without saying why. I think if you are going to lynch somebody or choose to lynch someone over somebody else, you should back that up with good reasoning.

I know there's cases where you don't want to give scum additional information so they can change their behavior, and that's fine. But isn't it true that by saying that Oman could slip away if CO is lynched first, it's probably true that Oman

has already been alerted

to change his behavior?

I don't have any idea whether or not Adel really does have solid reasoning to suspect Oman may slip away. What I do know is that I've seen Adel do things like this before as town, so I have to consider this a null tell also.

[Jitsu]

A cop claim makes sense for mafia because they know who's guilty and who's innocent. Thus, it is easy to fake investigation results to appear sane. An SK claiming cop has no way of knowing whether any given player is guilty or innocent, thus they would have to be banking on being able to get away with claiming a wrong result and selling it as a sanity issue.

Assuming CO is scum, and I think he is, then he had to do something to save himself, whether Mafia or SK. I think he just claimed something that would get him through the night -- I doubt he had already figured out his plans for Day 2 at that point.

I think it is unlikely that CO claimed with the intention of being an insane cop. If he were SK, he could have just claimed an appropriate result on someone that got NK'd. A correct doc protect could have totally screwed him if nobody ended up dying, but an SK would have had much less to worry about, as he could claim a result on his own kill if the mafia kill were blocked, and could have claimed a result on the mafia kill if his were prevented. After seeing a Watcher and Tracker come up from the NKs (which neither a scum nor an SK could have predicted), he could have seen the unbelievability of three investigation roles, and just switched his "sane" result to an "insane" one. Now, the SK would have to continue to do this or guess a correct result on someone not killed to keep staying alive, but even the slim chance of pulling that off had to beat getting lynched on Day 1.

A Mafia knowing Guardian to be innocent could have done the same thing, switching the planned result to the opposite one because of the role reveals from the dawn post.

[Jitsu]

Because if he is then we can potentially eliminate one nightkill by lynching him today rather than waiting until tomorrow.

True. But even though I just made a post that explained why ChaosOmega could be an SK, I'm not convinced that he is. An SK needs to survive to win, and lurking all day on Day 1 just does not sound like a good way to do that. I think it would be easy for the town AND mafia to attack him for lurking.

I will keep an open mind about the second killer, but at this point, I'm still guessing it is more likely to be a SK than a Vig.

[Jitsu]

Guardian is a saint for replacing ChaosOmega at this point.

I too want to hear what he has to say. Given how much trouble ChaosOmega was in, it ought to be interesting.

[Jitsu]

I am specifically going to wait to comment on Adel's post 923 until after Guardian has posted his thoughts (especially who he thinks today's play is) and Adel has reacted to them.

Anyhow, I'll try and get to that re-read, hopefully within the week.

I don't like this comment. I really hope you aren't trying to stall here. If you really are an innocent cop, you have a vested interest in saving yourself to benefit the town. I want to see your comments sooner, rather than later. A player of your caliber who is already familiar with the game and has finished skimming it should be able to get a re-read done and comments posted within the week.

Since ChaosOmega never said much, getting real comments on the game from someone assuming his role should be enlightening. In short: At this point, Guardian, the game is largely waiting on you.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu chill out. I've just gotten in the habit of always saying try, etc., because people have the ridiculous and annoying tendency of finding you suspicious when you don't get to something when you said you would, which for me is almost always because of IRL reasons and rarely for alignment.

Stalling would be horrible play as scum here; I'm an obvious fall back lynch, and the impetus is on me to show otherwise. If I stalled to near deadline I'd expect to be lynched.

Anyways, my defense and then analysis should come today, unless things pop up.

I wasn't trying to be an ass. I'm sorry if it sounded that way.

I don't want you to rush your comments -- I want them to be accurate, and as detailed as possible. If it takes you a few more days, I'm fine with that, but I don't think asking for them this week is unreasonable. In my opinion, waiting until near deadline to potentially lynch you for stalling is too long, because I think people will still want to discuss your comments, and that will take some time.

Some of this isn't your fault. If ChaosOmega had not been lurking to the degree he did, you might not be on such a short leash right now.

[Jitsu]

Is that a serious vote, or are you trying to generate reactions again?

@Adel: That's exactly what I want to know. Was the declaration to let Guardian direct your vote a gambit to gain information? Is your vote on Matt_S for real?

[Jitsu]

I'll ask again: Was the declaration to let Guardian direct your vote a gambit to gain information?

[Jitsu]

Like I said earlier, if opie isn't scum then matt_s must be.

I'd like to hear your reasoning behind this.

[Jitsu]

I'm still analyzing all that went down last night.

I'm taking extra time on this because we really need to get this lynch correct. If we happen to have a 3 mafia + SK setup (not an uncommon one for Mini games, if my meta is correct), then a mislynch could give the mafia an unbeatable win strategy for Day 3.

I will have many more comments later.

======================================================

Votecount #41

Guardian - 3 (Erg0, Oman, Matt_S)

Matt_S - 2 (Guardian, Adel)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Adel - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 2 (Patrick, Jitsu, )

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Jitsu]

First, I'll respond to Guardian^2's initial defense.

I'm not sure what I can say about C_O posting infrequently and without much substance. Those are just scummy things to do, and I can't defend them. However, someone posited that that was consistent with his scum meta -- is it inconsitent with his town meta? He might just always be a scummy lurker.

You could not possibly have read the meta before you said this. I spent some of yesterday reading some meta on ChaosOmega. I looked ad three of his most recent completed games. In Newbie 532, a Pie E7 game, ChaosOmega is the

cop

and his effort and activity in that game is noticably more active in that game than he has been in many others. However, in Mini 519: Clerks, and Theme 526 - M.A.D. Mafia he was scum and did some serious lurking. Three games by itself is still a small sample size and I hate to draw conclusions just from that. One thing that's clear to me is that the meta here definitely does

not

help your case.

Then there is the subject of the manner in which he claimed. Really, I can't fault him for that. Checking in and claiming seems like a reasonable thing to do, as was not claiming until the last possible moment. Until a couple of hours before deadline, it seemed that he would not have to claim -- and no one, especially power roles, should claim unless they have to. I don't think that is a legitimate reason to find me suspicious. I myself, as a Watcher, tried hard not to claim, and made sure I was on near deadline in case I'd have had to.

I went back to reread how the lynch and claim went down. ChaosOmega waited until he was sure he'd be lynched, which was shortly after Guardian voted for him 20 minutes before deadline in 691. I think that's mostly a null tell. Neither cop nor scum want to claim before it's necessary, but I find it odd that ChaosOmega specifically mentioned in 696 that he should have come on earlier to claim. I have a slightly harder time believing that he didn't care enough as a cop to get on just a bit earlier. And given that his life was spared, I find it really odd that he didn't apologize, thank the town for sparing him, or somehow vow to be more active and help the town on Day 2. If I played awful as a power role on Day 2, I would be doing whatever I could to make amends Day 2.

As for why he left the game and needed replacement -- I don't know the answer. I think the mod said the timer on his prod expired, right? His being replaced might have little to do with the in game situation, considering that. I don't think it is fair to assume that he left because he was being attacked. Even if he left because he was being attacked, I've seen players do that as town before. I don't think his exit is nearly as suspicious as his play day 1.

Who asked you about why he left and needed replacement? Who said his exit was suspicious? Who is assuming that he left because he was being attacked? Nobody said it in this thread, at least. The fact that you are bringing this up makes me think you might have a guilty conscience.

But, now that you bring it up, I checked up on this. ChaosOmega's last post in this game was 726, on Tue Mar 4. He was prodded Fri Mar 7 and replaced Mon Mar 10. ChaosOmega posted five times to MafiaScum between his prod and when he was replaced. Clearly, his reason for not posting here was not because he was away. I don't know what role he has in his other current games, but if I were a cop that nearly got lynched on Day 1 and already had

three

votes on me Day 2, I would not be posting in other games while ignoring this one.

Lastly, in terms of the plausibility of my role... well I find it fairly implausible, and I'm not going to lie about that. If I didn't get the PM from vollkan, I'd still be very, very skeptical of it myself. I hope my town-ness shines through and/or I convince you there are better options. All I can say is that I am a cop, and that a major benefit of leaving me around is that I'm a power role that won't likely be night killed; if I am insane (guilty=innocent, and vice versa), I might be useful just yet.

Oh, and why won't you likely be NKed? Even if you are damaged goods at this point, if you really are a cop like you claim, you could still be useful to the town, and that in itself is enough of a reason for someone to off you.

Anyways, try not to lynch me before I get a chance to re-read.
Don't let someone get by with hammering me before I do.

This sounds to me like you are already trying to throw suspicion on whomever would hammer you. The hammer vote almost always carries suspicion with it even if it's for hammering scum. I can't help but wonder why you felt the need to remind people of that.

More to come.[/url]

[Jitsu]

I've been reading Matt_S. On reread, my opinion of him hasn't changed a whole lot. He still strikes me a newbie. I can see how he could be scum that is lying low and trying to follow the group and blend in with the town, but I can also see him as a newbie townie just trying to keep up. I've found a number of little things that have made him look scummy here and there for sure, but nothing I can really point to as a smoking gun that make me reasonably sure he's sum. With a number of other people doing far scummier things, I just don't feel like taking a chance on him today. We really need to get this lynch right, and I don't like the odds on Matt right now.

However, there were a couple of things that did come up on my reread though that I'm curious about.


In post 749, Matt says:

Oman
Not the nicest player, but he did state suspicions on more than one person. I'd say overall Oman's been useful and protown.

In post 806, you say:

Are we voting Oman for following opie's bandwagon all of yesterday? Or is there something else that I'm missing? If it's the latter, I'd like to be clued in.

And then in post 851, Oman has moved up to second on your list:

I'm tempted to think Adel is town at the moment, for a variety of WIFOM reasons, plus playing an active role. Of the others, I'd definitely rank ChaosOmega as most likely scum, followed by Oman and Xylthixlm. I'm also having a hard time grasping Jitsu being scum; I can see it but it doesn't seem to fit his actions.

Questions:

Matt, early in the day, you didn't see why people found Oman scummy Day 1. Did you really not have a problem with Oman's play on Day 1?What was it that changed your mind about Oman on Day 2?

[Jitsu]

Adel, you have given a reason why you're voting Matt_S today, but I want to know what your reasoning was *yesterday* for finding Matt_S scummy if Opie were scummy. Also, why did you withhold your explanation for voting Matt_S until five players agreed?

Also, when I asked what you learned from yesterday's random wagon on Opie, you mentioned that you didn't know for sure because you needed to reread with the knowledge of Opie/Guardian^1/Pickem's alignments. Have you completed your reread? If so, what did you conclude?

Is Guardian more likely to be a cop or SK?

[Jitsu]

[quote="Adel"]keep in mind my view of this game recently shifted, and I haven't worked through it. There should be significant differences between a couple of day ago and now.

What was it that caused this? The post(s) Guardian^2 has made since he rejoined? Do you think Guardian is a paranoid cop if he's town?

If we have an SK, and Guardian is unlikely to be the SK, who is?

[Jitsu]

All this talk about the SK is pretty relevant, if indeed we have an SK. If my calculations are right, the optimal play is for the town to lynch a mafioso today, and not the SK.

[Jitsu]

I find the non-sane cop to be a more likely role than SK. That cop ma kill his investigative target, or we may have a vig. I don't think we have a SK.

Okay, I have to ask the question again. Why don't you think we have an SK?

[Jitsu]

me being right about guardian being a cop is probably going to get me lynched tomorrow. damn it.

How do you figure this?

[Jitsu]

I am your friendly neighborhood Serial Killer.[/b]

Well, now there's a twist I didn't expect.

I seriously can't wait to hear what Adel has to say about this.

[Jitsu]

He targeted Guardian^1 to kill Guardian^1 last night.

So ChaosOmega, the proposed SK,

shot

you, and one of the other scum

stabbed

Pickem?

@Mod: Are the kill methods listed correctly? Guardian was shot and Pickem was stabbed?

[Jitsu]

Just to be clear:

Guardian^2, you are asserting that ChaosOmega (whom you replaced), is the SK, and shot Guardian^1 last night, which would mean that the mafia stabbed Pickem. Is that correct?

[Jitsu]

I'm trying to figure out if we can use this to our advantage to gain information, whether we trust Guardian or not.

[Jitsu]

Wow, spring break seems to be an interesting time for mafia.

Unvote Guardian^2

. Well, we have one claimed scum already, so if we can lynch mafia today, and we get a crosskill tonight, that leaves our serial killer and maybe another mafia tomorrow. If Adel's right about Guardian being a good scumhunter, and he actually is a serial killer, then we could have a decent situation tomorrow.

How much do you trust Adel right now? What do you think the likelihood is that she is Mafia?

[Jitsu]

@Guardian:

I've given it more thought and I came to the realization that if you're the SK, it's actually in your best interest to not hit scum tonight and to instead hit town.

Yes, unless we mislynch. The worst possible case for the town now is a 5 townie, 1 SK, 3 mafia setup (with a Mafia Roleblocker for some added pain).

Assuming we do have a 5-1-3 setup, then the optimal play for the SK depends on whether we get the lynch right. If there's a mislynch, we are at 4-1-3. The mafia will want to NK a townie to bring it to 3-1-3 and force the SK to NK a Mafioso. If the SK fails, the Mafia win (both the town and SK lose).

If we lynch a Mafioso, then the case that Incognito and Erg0 mentioned apply. We are at 4-1-2, and the SK can NK a townie to bring us to 3-1-2 and ensure that s/he cannot be lynched by the town -- but, in an ironic twist, the SK needs to help the town lynch mafia the next day or the Mafia wins (the SK can still be endgamed, I presume).

If we lynch the SK, we are at 5-0-3 and a successful NK by Mafia makes it 4-0-3, which is LYLO.


Here is the game tree:

Code: Select all

Currently 5-1-3:


Lynch Mafia:
5-1-2 	-> 3-1-2 (LYLO)
	-> 4-0-2*
	-> 4-1-1*
	-> 5-0-1*

Lynch SK:
5-0-3	-> 4-0-3 (LYLO)*

Lynch Town:
4-1-3	-> 2-1-3 (LOSE)
	-> 3-0-3 (LOSE)
	-> 3-1-2 (LYLO)*
	-> 4-0-2*


3-1-2:

Lynch mafia:  
3-1-1 	-> 1-1-1 (Prisoner's Dilemma)
	-> 2-0-1*
	-> 2-1-0*
	-> 3-0-0 (WIN)

Lynch SK:
3-0-2	-> 2-0-2 (LOSE)

Lynch Town:
2-1-2	-> 0-1-2 (LOSE)
	-> 1-0-2 (LOSE)
	-> 1-1-1 (Prisoner's Dilemma)
	-> 2-0-1* (Endgame)

* = The town is in control of its own destiny (lynching correctly for the rest of the game should guarantee a town win)

What this means is this:
* If we mislynch, the SK must lynch a Mafioso tonight, or the game is over shortly after Day 3 starts
* Lynching scum should guarantee that the town still has a chance of winning the game.
* The only scenario in which the town controls its own destiny is if we lynch the SK today. If we do not, the town can lose, even with perfect town play. If the town wants to be in control of its own destiny, we need to lynch the SK today, whoever that is.
* If the town wants to gamble, lynching a Mafioso gives us control of our own destiny AND gets us out of LYLO if we get a crosskill tonight. If there is no crosskill, the town is in LYLO and we are NOT in control of our destiny.
* The Mafia are in the strongest position right now, but the SK is the one that has the most power to change that.
* The SK is in a very flexible position now and has several outs for winning the game. The most likely seems to be to lynch a Mafia today, NK a townie tonight (which should guarantee that the town can't lynch the SK before endgame), then help the town lynch a Mafia tomorrow and NK the last Mafia tomorrow night, bringing us to a 2-1 endgame where either the town or SK will win. If the town could trust the SK, and that's a very, very, very big IF, a temporary alliance between the SK and town could shut the mafia out of the game.

This leads to an interesting strategy: if Guardian is lying, and the real SK were to claim, the town could potentially offer an alliance to the SK.

Hmmm. From that last post, I wonder if Oman, Adel, and Guardian^2 are the Mafia and Xylthixlm is the SK.

[Jitsu]

But Xylthixlm's post also brings up another interesting possibility. The Mafia really want the SK dead. If the Mafia know that Guardian is telling the truth and is the SK, one of them could claim Mafia and thus out one of their members in exchange for the town lynching Guardian-SK. The town then only has to deal with 2 days of LYLO and the mafia get rid of the pesky SK.

[Jitsu]

The game tree I presented intentially does not list every possible outcome. The tree does not consider what would happen if there were doc protects, mafia roleblocks, or no kills, all of which are very swingy and hard to predict. Mainly because it makes the tree really complicated, but also because in a number of those cases, those scenarios are better for the town. This is a worst-case analysis based only on public knowledge from the thread.

The town really has limited/no control over the SK's actions, so I don't see the point of planning things out to that level of detail. Ultimately, the SK will do whatever s/he feels is the best way to get to the endgame. How much weight do town threats have over the SK anyway? If the SK can manipulate the game into a 3-1-2 situation tonight (which is very possible), the town threat carries no weight because lynching the SK at that point would result in a town loss.

How is 1-1-1 a town win again?

[Jitsu]

Your tree similarly ignores 3-1-3 / 4-3 if we lynch town today, one of the major advantages of trying to lynch mafia instead of me.

If we lynch town today, the town is hosed and needs to pray for the SK to nail a mafioso tonight to save the game. If we lynch you, this scenario cannot happen since you are certainly scum of some sort. If we try to lynch someone other than you, this situation can happen. I totally don't follow your logic here.

[Jitsu]

Your tree similarly ignores 3-1-3 / 4-3 if we lynch town today, one of the major advantages of trying to lynch mafia instead of me.

I think I see now. That presumes that the SK no-kills, which the town has no control over. I do not see how a no-kill helps the SK here.

[Jitsu]

My post 1155 is the solution here.

You are making it seem like the only choice that Guardian^2-SK has to survive is to play nice with the town. That's hardly true, given that myself and others have outlined situations where you as SK would have plenty of other options, some of which could even be better than taking orders from the town.

Even if it means a town loss, it will mean an SK loss as well, so Guardian, you better damn well do what we say, or we will ensure that you lose, even if it means we lose."

Presented with that threat (that you should be making), I *have* to do what you say.

Not if you can get yourself into a position where you can't be lynched tomorrow, and I believe it's possible for you to do that either way, as long as you aren't lynched. If you really cannot be NKed, the possibility that you could get into a situation where you couldn't be NKed and that the town could not lynch you before endgame should be enough for the mafia to seriously consider confirming your claim right now.

[Jitsu]

Here is the counterexample:

We start at 5-1-3.
We cooperate and lynch Mafia today -> 5-1-2.
Mafia NK a townie -> 4-1-2.
You defect and NK a townie -> 3-1-2.

Now the town cannot lynch you tomorrow, because if we do, it is 3-0-2 going into tomorrow night, and the mafia NK makes it 2-0-2, which is very likely a Mafia win.

[Jitsu]

Guardian: I think Jitsu is scum willfully ignoring the evidencce in an attempt to drown out the defense of you that is the single thing most likly to keep the mafia from winning. I'm tmepted to lynch him today so that you can NK Oman tonight.

I was wondering if you were scum or not. Thanks for cleaning that up.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu, is she?

At this point, I think she is more likely to be scum than not.

My best guess is that you, Oman, and Adel are scum, in descending order of certainty. If we do have a fourth, which seems to be likely, I am torn between Matt_S and Xylthixlm, leaning slightly toward the latter.

I reread and I get what you are saying now, but I don't know whether to believe you yet.

[Jitsu]

I admit that I'm at a bit of a loss right now. I guessed wrong on Adel for sure, but knowing her alignment does help me.

A one-shot Vig is possible, and an SK still makes sense if a kill were blocked. Given the knife flavor, I'm tempted to lean a little bit toward an SK scenario than the Vig, but I won't rule anything out.

I still find Patrick, Incognito, and Erg0 town, so by process of elimination, for me, that leaves Oman, Xylthixlm, and Matt_S as the possible scum.

With Adel out of the picture, I tend to agree that Oman and Xylthixlm are the Mafia. I've liked Patrick's and Erg0's recent posts. I'm still more comfortable with Omanscum than Xylthixlmscum (that's a bit of a mouthful).

If there is an SK then, I would conclude that it is Matt_S. I could see that.

The lack of a second kill last night is huge. If we do have a vig, we could actually be at 5-0-2 right now. The worst case is probably 4-1-2, which is still winnable.

We are actually in much the same situation as yesterday. If we want to stay in control of our destiny, we need to lynch the SK (presuming there is one).

I want to reread with the knowledge that Adel is town before I decide who I think the play is.

[Jitsu]

What happened to your post 730, where you wanted to lynch CO after I checked in without any discussion? ChaosOmega was a good lynch, but certainly not that early on D2. There was still a lot to talk about at that point.

In my eyes, your pushing for CO's lynch without actually voting is way scummier than what Incognito did. I think Incognito saw the quicklynch forming and he unvoted to stop it BECAUSE he saw what was happening. Then I posted to try to get people to stop also.

I really don't have a problem with Incognito's behavior you mention because I think he was debating between two scum. Sure the case on CO looked stronger, but the strongest case is not always the best lynch, and I think Incognito was going for information.

In my mind, I'm pretty convinced that Xylthixlm and Oman are scum (probably both mafia). If right now the only thing we had to worry about were lynching scum, I'd be happy voting for either of them. But the thing that is worrying me most is the SK, assuming there is one. I think we can keep winning battles by lynching scum, but I'm worried we are going to lose the war.

[Jitsu]

I thought I asked this already, but it seems I didn't.

Jitsu: Why do you think I'm the serial killer?

Mostly by process of elimination. I think Oman and Xylthixlm are scum, and I tend to think they are mafia based on their interactions with Guardian.

I think Patrick and Incognito are pretty town, and I think Erg0 is probably town also from a combination of his Day 1 conversations at the end of the day criticizing the Opie wagon, and implicating most of the current scum suspects way back then. In addition, I liked his exchange with Guardian at the end of Day 2. I think I had a similar idea in mind in my earlier exchange, but I couldn't explain it as well as Erg0 did.

I know I'm innocent, so that leaves you as the most likely candidate for ths SK. That's not a certainty, but my best guess at the moment. I still need to reread.

[Jitsu]

Sorry guys. I'm checking in. I'll make a longer post later today.

[Jitsu]

Does anyone other than Xylthixlm have an opinion on Xyl's logic today regarding why he defended Guardian? It seems to me that it makes no sense at all, but most people seem to be just glossing over it so maybe I'm hallucinating. If I'm missing something that actually means what he's said makes sense, someone please tell me what it is.

I will go back and reread, but on my initial read, I wasn't really buying Xyl's logic. I don't really believe Xyl or Oman at this point.

Oman's play continues to be scummy in the same vein today as it always has been; wishy washy attack on two players, stereotypical scum on scum assessment of Xylthixlm, and no real attempts to convince anyone that his cases are correct.

Wishy washy? I think that would be a compliment. Perhaps if he worked on it a bit, he could upgrade it to wishy washy. I agree he's done nothing to convince anyone of his cases. It sounds to me like a scum who hasn't put a lot of effort in the game.

I still love a Xylthixlm/Oman mafia, but will be reading soon to check out what other scumgroups look plausible. I still think there's no Oman/Jitsu because of Oman's tone towards Jitsu early day 1. Whilst an SK is still possible, I get turned off the idea whenever I look at the opening post flavour, even though I suppose mods do occasionally deliberately mislead. My money would still be on no SK though.

Patrick, what exactly about the opening post flavor suggests to you there is no SK? How do you account for the Pickem kill if there is no SK?

Be I still see an SK as likely. We have a watcher and a tracker dead -- two roles that are designed to look for (scum) night choices. Now, if there is no SK, then the mafia would seem to have some power on their side, since one would presume there is not a tracker and watcher for no reason. A roleblocker is quite likely I think, as Xylthixlm said earlier (one statement of his I actually agree with). There's probably no godfather, since it is unlikely we have a cop. What kind of other roles are there where Mafia target people? Plus, we have that second killer running around. If it's a town role, then the watcher and tracker are just as likely (if not more so) to screw over the town, because that would be at least three pro-town roles that can target others, that could easily be mistaken for scum by the watcher/tracker. I am guessing because of that, that there are few or no town power roles remaining, and that theory tends to fit with the second killer not being a pro-town killing role here. It's also bugging me why there was no second kill last night. If the town has a doctor, even a Quack, that's another possible chance for a watcher/tracker to mistarget suspicion. A Mafia Roleblocker blocking an SK might be a better fit, but I don't want to zero in on that too much since Vollkan has already signaled that we are not dealing with a typical setup here.

A second mafia group could be possible, but something about that doesn't seem to fit. Guardian's play yesterday really seemed to be about drawing out the SK so that s/he could be lynched (or failing that, NKed). Xylthixlm was talking quite a bit about an SK also, and seemed to think it was Adel. And Adel ended up getting NKed. I don't like to draw a lot of conclusions from NK choices, but maybe the shoe does fit here. I would think that if we had two scum groups that we would have been more likely to seen a crosskill, or that the mafia would have guessed at the possibility of a second group given that we would be dealing with two groups of two. I would have expected for the mafia to encourage the town to nail the other mafia instead of fakeclaiming SK. A two person scum group sacrificing one of their number to try to out an SK? I'm not really buying that. I don't know what the scum's motives were, but it really seemed like the scum were looking for an SK yesterday, and the scum probably have a good guess at the setup, what with the watcher and tracker revealed, knowing their own roles, and having more information to figure out who Pickem's mystery killer might be. If there are two scum groups, we probably want to try to nail Guardian's partner.

A one-shot vig does seem possible. A town + watcher + tracker + one-shot vig I think would be reasonably balanced with a 2 mafia goon + 1 roleblocker setup (possibly slightly town-favored in that case). Also, a 1-shot vig is less likely to be fingered by the watcher/tracker.

Also, there's Xylthixlm's post where he flat out stated that we should not be going after a possible SK and should be lynching mafia instead. Again, maybe it's more WIFOM, but leaving an SK alive would seem to be a bad play for the mafia also, because they would seem to be just as likely to get sucked into a Prisoner's Dilemma endgame as the town is. That's one reason why I still think there is a small chance that Xylthixlm could be an SK. I think Oman is probably not an SK. Massive lurking with bad votes and little in the way of scumhunting is not a good recipe to survive, and SKs need to survive to win (this is the same reason I was having trust issues with Guardian on Day 2, since ChaosOmega was not really trying hard to survive either).

We only had one kill last night while on night 1 we had two kills. We've contemplated the possibility of there being an SK, a vig, a one-shot vig, and I think Adel even suggested a Quack Doctor. If one of the kills during Night 1 was performed by a one-shot vig, does anyone think that the one-shot vig should role claim now? My reasoning is the one-shot vig would essentially be a vanilla townie now since he's used up his one shot and it might help us to figure out the set-up and our current situation further if he claimed.

Yes, I think a one-shot vig should claim. Honestly, I was even pondering the idea of a mass claim, but I think it's still a bit too early. The information we could learn about the setup could be extremely valuable -- being able to deduce who killed Pickem and why there was no second kill last night could win the game since it seems that we've already fingered two scum in Xyl and Oman. The big disadvantage I see is if there is a Mafia Roleblocker, a mass claim would neuter any town power roles left remaining.

But, for a one-shot vig, there's not much of an issue.

[Jitsu]

Odd question. The front post tells us all about the mafia invading the town, the mafia killing the dashing vollkan, and leaving their sig on his forehead. We're then told to look for the identities of those responsible [for vollkans death]. We're not told to look for anything else. As I said, I suppose it's possible the mod is deliberately misleading us, but that kind of opening surely implies we're just dealing with a mafia. In my experience anyway. The last mini normal I played in (Tapioca Mafia) was similar in that regard. You don't read it that way? As for pickem's death, that could have been caused by mafia, SK or vig couldn't it?

I know I'm not as experienced as you, but I don't like to speculate setups based on the flavor text, with the possible exception of kill method, which is sometimes helpful. It's a closed setup -- if Vollkan did throw in an SK, he wouldn't tell us, given that it's a closed setup. I wouldn't see that as a deliberate attempt to mislead.

I have another reason. Did you read the flavor text really closely? Notice that the calling card carved into our late beloved Mayor Vollkan's forehead said "Mafia has arrived" (that is: Mafia, singular),

not

"[The] Mafia have arrived," (that is: Mafia, plural) which would be the more grammatically correct and natural way of saying things, according to your interpretation. I could interpret "Mafia has arrived" as meaning "the game of Mafia has arrived in Vollville," meaning the town is threatened by scum and we need to eliminate the scum to win the game and restore peace. It kind of breaks the fourth wall a bit, but I think it's plausible. IMO, the wording

could

be intentionally ambiguous.

The flavor text may or may not be indicative of the townie win condition -- I choose not to base my view of the game on it. Given that most mods of closed setups try to avoid giving anything away in flavor text, I have to doubt that Vollkan is intentionally giving away information here. I think it's unwise for you to be assuming that he is (even though it's quite possible you are right).

Sure, there are several explanations for Pickem's death, and I thought I was very careful to comment about that. While I said I think some are more likely than others, I have not ruled any of them out.

I agree that the mafia probably have some power, maybe a GF and/or roleblocker. The existance of a dead "mafia goon" already implies it (a mafia without abilities usually just has it's members listed as "mafia". I don't think GF is unlikely -- I could easily see there being an unightkillable GF.

True, I just checked on the Wiki and it does say that a GF is sometimes UnNKable. (I didn't realize this because every GF I've read about is of the investigation-immune variety. In my experience, the investigation immune GF is much more likely than the NK immune one, but again, we already know this setup is atypical.)

Others should weigh in on the idea of a massclaim, but I'm starting to think it's a good idea.

As I said before, I have nothing to hide. As I said, there is some risk to any townie power roles left remaining, but the information we get could be very beneficial. I expect Oman and Xyl to lie, but what the remaining players say should be enlightening. I don't want to explain why, as the scum could benefit from that.

======================================================

Page 54 Votecount

Xylthixlm - 2 (Matt_S, Patrick)

Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Matt_S- 1 (Oman)

Not voting - 3 (Erg0, Xylthixlm, Jitsu)

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline for D3: Tuesday April 22, 11:11AM GMT+10
================================================

[Jitsu]

I agree with Patrick about the opening flavor suggesting only a Mafia versus Town kind of set-up.

Read my previous post and tell me what you think.

I disagree with the idea of having a complete mass claim. I think only if we have a one-shot vig, he should claim. It's possible that we have some sort of protective role on the side of the town that could have been responsible for preventing a death last night. Or we could have a regular vig who targeted an unnightkillable Godfather last night or who was blocked by a Mafia-aligned roleblocker. I don't think possibly outing that protective role or that vig by way of a mass claim is the way to go especially since I feel pretty good about my suspicions.

Something just occurred to me when I reread your post. If I'm right, then well done.

There are several ways to explain the lack of a second kill last night, but we

do

have a second killer. So you think it is a Vig or a Quack, then?

[Jitsu]

I'm starting to think that the way he plays townie would not be the way I or MS.net plays townie.

Matt_S' buddy. He and Erg0 looked bad yesterday.

Matt_S just makes scummy votes, scummy words. Looks scummy.

In order to believe this, you would also have to believe that both Erg0 and Matt_S decided to bus their own scum buddy (ChaosOmega-scum) during Day 1 at the exact same time. Do you find this to be likely?

Well, it depends. I don't have time to check now, but I could see Matt_S following erg0, but if erg0 was on second I'd say it is much less likely.

You don't have time to check??? The voting history is there in the first page. It clearly shows that Erg0's vote on ChaosOmega was first. It shouldn't take more than 60 seconds to see that from the vote counts.

[Jitsu]

I don't want to explain why

Why does this remind me of Day 1?

Would you prefer instead that I explained why so that the scum can potentially alter their mass claim strategy and mislead us?

[Jitsu]

I support a mass claim.

Jitsu: Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two scumteams of two people each, or a single scumteam of four?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: a scumteam of two plus a SK, or a single scumteam of three?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two SKs, or a single scumteam of two?

These are kind of odd questions. Are you asking specifically about this game or in general terms?

[Jitsu]

I don't want to explain why

Why does this remind me of Day 1?

Would you prefer instead that I explained why so that the scum can potentially alter their mass claim strategy and mislead us?

Surely you can understand why I'm a little skeptical though.

Of course, but in this case, a little opaqueness is necessary, I'm afraid. A mass claim could be ruined if the scum were tipped off about what information the town was looking for.

[Jitsu]

I'm thinking vollkan's forehead wasn't big enough for the extra word But seriously, I would consider it somewhat misleading from the mod if there does turn out to be an SK in the game. I think it's likely we'll have to just agree to disagree on this point, I can respect the point of view of not wanting to read anything into opening text, but I can't help but let it affect my judgement a bit here.

I actually hope you are right. If you are, that would be great, as it means we are in a better position than I have feared. I tend to plan for the worst case and hope for the best, though. That's how I'm approaching this.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu: Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two scumteams of two people each, or a single scumteam of four?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: a scumteam of two plus a SK, or a single scumteam of three?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two SKs, or a single scumteam of two?

Here are the relevant factors in the decision, as I see it:

Ratio: A single large scumteam is more dangerous than several small groups because the town:scum ratio is much lower in that case. It is easier for the scum to get the majority they need to win when there is one large scumgroup.

Scumhunting: Finding a single large group I think tends to be easier, as scum in the same group know who each other are (and can make more slips that way by bussing/defending). An SK cannot honestly bus or defend a partnet because the SK does not know anyone else's alignment.

Night kills: Multiple scumgroups mean more nightkills, which is generally more dangerous for the town (however, see crosskills below). With multiple NKs, the game progresses faster, so the town has to be more accurate with their lynches.

Crosskills: A single scumgroup cannot suffer from crosskills, where multiple small groups can. Any crosskills will always help the town.

Protective roles: Doctors and other protective roles are a little more powerful when there is only one NK coming in. If the doctor can find a cop or power role, s/he can extend the game by several days. It's true that with multiple scumgroups doctors are more likely to have a successful protect, with only one scumgroup, each successful protect is like a free day for the town.

Endgame complexity: An SK complicates the endgame a lot more than a single scumgroup. If you only have a single group of mafia to deal with, you don't usually need to worry about the order in which you get them. Lynching the mafia in any order usually wins the game. But with multiple scumgroups, the order can be vital. For example, if the game situation is at 3 town + SK + 2 mafia, the town has to lynch mafia. Lynching the SK, plus the resulting mafia NK would take the game to 2 town + 2 mafia, which is usually a mafia win. needs to lynch both mafia, and then the SK,

in that order

, to win. If you can get rid of the SK before getting to LYLO, the town usually has a guaranteed win situation. Also, with several scumgroups, the endgame can result in a messy prisoner's dilemma, in which the town is powerless.

Strategy and Setup: With a single scumgroup, it's a lot easier to guess at the setup. With multiple scumgroups, the town can stay in the dark a lot longer, and LYLO/endgame can sneak up on you before the proper strategy can be implemented. For example, look at this game. Probably the biggest unknown for the town right now is: Who is our second killer? With that information, I think we'd feel much better about who to lynch today. A 4 town + 1 SK + 2 mafia position is very different from a 5-0-2 situation. In the former case, a mislynch + two NKed townies is game over at 1-1-2. In the latter, the worse case tomorrow morning is a 3-0-2 situation (LYLO, but still winnable).

For question 1, in the context of a Mini Normal, I think a four person scumteam is more dangerous. The Ratio is the biggest issue here I think. No chance of crosskills, and with only one scumgroup, it is easier for the scum to get the majority they need to win (high scum:town ratio). Even with serious town power, the game is tough for the town to win. One mislynch is probably LYLO. Two is probably Game Over. With two scum groups of two, the town is probably still in the game after two mislynches, even with no crosskills, because it is harder for either of the two scumgroups to gain a majority (plus they usually need to wipe out the other group to win).

For question 2, the ratio is less of a problem. Scum:town ratios are not as much as in the first case, so the balance swings away from the large scumteam a bit. There is a tradeoff: 2 NKs can hit the town twice as hard (and makes it more likely that one will evade a protector role), but there is the possibility crosskills can help the town. This case is more of a tossup for me for a general setup. Near LYLO though, I'd probably prefer 3 mafia so it doesn't matter which order I lynch them in.

For question 3, I've never seen a game with 2 SKs. Having 2 SKs kind of sounds like a nightmare really, as once one SK dies, the other players seem to be be very reluctant to suspect a second SK, and that might lead toward incorrect assumptions. I think I'd rather have 2 mafia if I got the choice.

For this specific point in this game, not knowing who the second killer is what concerns me most.

[Jitsu]

I will give Xylthixlm the opportunity to claim before I vote for him.

[Jitsu]

I'd be shocked if the game contained a tracker, watcher, vig, doctor and nurse, which would be a huge amount of town power. Even with an SK in the game that would be a huge amount of town power. If there is no doctor then Xylthixlm's claim is unprovable and same as vanilla townie really.

Agreed. Nobody has counterclaimed the second kill, so I have to think you are telling the truth (very likely) or there is an unclaimed SK (very unlikely). I agree that would be a gigantic amount of town power, even if the scum have some decent power of their own.

If he's a nurse than he's really unlucky because I don't believe his claim at all. Does anyone else have anything to add here? If Xyl is scum then I'll kill Oman tonight, if Xyl is town then I guess I'll hold off because a misvig would lose the game.

I agree if Xyl comes up scum you should nail Oman. If he comes town, I think you should use your best judgment, based on what Xyl comes up as.

After preview: I see Oman claimed tracker. Was that a serious claim? You got Xyl going somewhere last night?

My guess if Xyl went anywhere, it was Adel's house.

I don't like the Oman hammer. The only thing I can see is that Oman knows you are going to get blocked tonight and that he swooped in to hammer to desperately make the grab from some townie cred. If we're right about the situation he's in, that's probably about the best he can do.

[Jitsu]

Oman hasn't hammered, I unvoted Xylthixlm. Still waiting for Oman's "results", on the miniscule chance he's somehow teling the truth.

My bad.

I agree, there is no need to rush this. It's worth it to wait to hear his results. I can't believe there are two trackers, a watcher, and a vig on the town side though. That seems pretty town-biased, even with a hefty scumteam.

I think they're both lying scum for obvious reasons. We lynch Xylthixlm today and Patrick pwns the crap out of Oman tonight.

I agree. If Xyl is scum and Oman survives the night, I don't think it will take ten pages of discussion tomorrow to figure out the play.

[Jitsu]

You like agreeing with me so much that you attributed Incognito's quote to me as well. I'm touched. ^_^.

Sorry, cut and paste error.

C'mon Oman. Come out and give us some results before we hammer your scumbuddy. If you're town, you should have given them to us already.

He should have given them to us when he claimed. And actually, I just realized that Oman's vote didn't count since he didn't unvote first. Since he's claimed something now, he can't quickhammer without giving his results, if he really is a townie.

Vote: Xylthixlm

[Jitsu]

Just to be perfectly clear, now Xylthixlm is at L-1 again.

[Jitsu]

I am also stunned that Oman is town.

We have 2 chances to get scum unless that person is mafia roleblocker. I'll have to reread carefully and calmly, which isn't likely to happen at this hour. I'm also puzzled as to why I wasn't killed last night -- that actually makes me think mafia roleblocker is more likely.

I'm guessing here that your logic is that the remaining mafia is not afraid of you because he can block you indefinitely?

I really need to think about this.

It seems highly unlikely that there will be a Night 5. Patrick has already claimed, and Matt_S seemed to imply yesterday that he would have gone along with one. I do not oppose it either. Erg0, what's your opinion?

[Jitsu]

By the last post, I mean a fullclaim.

[Jitsu]

Since I have proposed a massclaim, and I think that we will be at endgame after tonight, I think it is best if I claim now.

I am a Vanilla Townie with no abilities or powers. I tried to telegraph this several times by mentioning that I had nothing to hide. I've played this game the best I could, trying to scumhunt to the best of my ability, ask lots of questions, and analyze the setup

I ask that Matt_S and Erg0 claim, and then I will finish my reread and post an analysis.

[Jitsu]

Any particular reason why you tried to telegraph being a vanilla townie? Did you do that in Underground Mafia?

Part of it stemmed out of the attack on me on Day 1. I defended myself by explaining why I reversed course on Guardian, and I simply told the truth, because I didn't know what else to do. I didn't want to look evasive or counterattack. I knew I couldn't claim, as that would have been suspicious with only four votes on me. But I wanted to be as honest as possible with the town. So I wanted to establish an open and transparent playstyle and act my role properly to help the town, to try to help people see me for who I was. I knew I would never claim anything other than vanilla townie. I've tried to be as good of a townie as possible and I've tried to respond properly to everything asked of me.

When I brought up the massclaim yesterday, I was confused about the possible setup. Since I had no power, I tried to share what little information I had to help the town. I didn't have much information about what was going on, but I figured someone else probably did (I thought there was probably another town power role somewhere that could benefit from it). When I said I had nothing to hide, I meant it literally. At that point, given the setup confusion, when talking about a massclaim, I tried to reinforce again that I had nothing to hide. Not having any other information besides the lynch scenes and dawn posts, my speculation on the setup and desire for information about it was all genuine. I was trying to analyze the setup just like I did at the end of Underground Mafia.

I didn't really have to telegraph my role in Underground Mafia, because I was never in any serious trouble in that game. I received exactly one vote in that entire game (from someone that everyone thought was scummy at the time) after the random phase, and by Day 3 or so, most of the players, even the scum, pegged me as a confirmed townie. But I also did my best to act transparently in that game to avoid suspicion and help the town by trying to give them one less suspect to consider.

If you read/skim Underground Mafia, I think you'll see that I played the same style of game as I have in this one. I don't have the experience to be much good at picking up on subtle tells, and I know that. Instead, I tried to pick out logical inconsistencies and press for further details on explanations I found strange. At the end, I tried to reason out the setup and develop a strategy to put the town in the best possible position for the endgame. As it turned out, I had a fairly good read on most people by the end of Day 3 in that game. I've had a much harder time getting good reads here (though, in my defense, I don't think I am the only one in that boat).

I can think of another reason why you (telling the truth as a Vig) weren't killed last night, but I'd like to hear Erg0 and Matt_S's claims before I say why.

@Jitsu: I'm vanilla. However, I'd like to hear why you try to hint that you're vanilla. People breadcrumb power roles for evidence when they claim. Breadcrumbing vanilla just gives the mafia a chance to hit other townies who are power roles.

Thank you, that was what I was expecting. Please refer to my answer to Patrick above. If that doesn't answer your question, please let me know.

[Jitsu]

No surprises there then. I too will have to read certain parts to make up a list; I did have some immediate inklings when day dawned, but there's probably no point saying them until I've read up properly.

Jitsu, you're free to elaborate. I'd also like to know what you were keeping quiet yesterday -- that additional benefit you mentioned to massclaiming.

I am glad to. I went back through my posts and I couldn't find anywhere I mentioned an additional benefit. Maybe you could point me to specifically what you're referring to? But I will explain what I was thinking, so hopefully the point will be moot.

Anyway, I'll say what I kept secret -- it's not an earth-shattering secret or anything. The first thing I was looking for, obviously, was to see who, if anyone, would claim to be the second killer. If nobody claimed it, I could safely assume we didn't have a vig, and since there were two killers, I believed I could conclude that the second killer was an SK.

I agreed with Incognito's comments yesterday at the bottom of 1339 about the likely scenarios today. The other thing I was specifically watching to see if anyone would claim doctor. With nobody claiming doctor, it virtually rules out an SK. I think a watcher + tracker + vig is reasonably balanced with a three person mafia team with either a NK Immune Godfather or a Roleblocker. Having both seems just a bit unbalanced for a watcher + tracker + vig town -- one scum is already NK immune, and the other can block someone else? That really kind of nerfs the Vig, doesn't it?

Also, as I said yesterday, I don't think Guardian2 would have fakeclaimed SK if he was in a scumteam of only two. So if there were an SK, we would have watcher + tracker against 3 mafia (one of them a GF) and an SK? I don't buy that.

Sort of wondering whether scum thought Incognito had a protective role. Some of his posts yesterday could be taken that way. If that theory is true that would mean scum don't have a roleblocker, otherwise they could have just blocked him and killed me.

The other explanation I had for why you may not have been NKed is that the mafia feared that there may have been a doctor and would have wasted their kill by targeting you, since you were virtually certain to draw doc protection. So instead, they went after a safer target in Incognito and removed another strong townie in the process. If there is a blocker, which I doubt, he could have let your kill through since you targeted Oman, but I tend to agree with your 1399 instead.

There's something else I noticed. I know I said that I don't like to read things into flavor text, but I remembered your comments on the mod not misleading players, and while looking for the post you were referring to, I saw something in today's dawn post (1386) that I just can't ignore.

Oman swelled with joy as he opened his front door;

the town had almost eradicated the scum

. As he poured himself a celebratory glass of wine, he fell back in fright as the wine glass exploded, a bullet hole appearing on his kitchen floor. He didn’t have time to duck or react, for another shot followed immediately after, hitting him squarely in the heart.

(Emphasis mine) This doesn't sound to me like there is an SK and Mafia remaining.

I can't be 100% sure, but my money is on the scenario that Patrick is telling the truth, and we only have one scum remaining, that is likely not a roleblocker.

[Jitsu]

Oops, the third to the last paragraph there should have been quoted f rom post 1386:

Oman swelled with joy as he opened his front door;

the town had almost eradicated the scum

. As he poured himself a celebratory glass of wine, he fell back in fright as the wine glass exploded, a bullet hole appearing on his kitchen floor. He didn’t have time to duck or react, for another shot followed immediately after, hitting him squarely in the heart.

[Jitsu]

Hmm good point. Admittedly I still have a voice in the back of my head whispering "Patrick could be scum", which prompted me to consider a no-lynch in part as SK insurance. If it's 3/1 today then worst case after a no-lynch is 2/1 tomorrow (though we do lose the extra kill), but if its 2/1/1 then we're pretty much guaranteed to lose if we lynch someone today. I guess it comes down to whether we fully trust that you are what you say you are.

I had a long-winded explanation for this, but I'll keep it simple: the scum may want to claim if they know Patrick's claim to be false.

In 1397 that you felt it was reasonable to assume that Patrick's claim is truthful. Then, only 5 posts later, you are floating the idea of a no lynch, telling us about voices in your head, and rhetorically asking whether or not we fully trust Patrick. What prompted this change in your thoughts?

Also, your analysis is lacking a bit. If we are in a 2/1/1 situation, lynching a mafia or SK is game over as you said. But no lynching does not improve the situation. It sounds really counterintuitive, but lynching a townie reduces the situation to 1/1/1, the classic mafia Prisoner's Dilemma, which at least gives the town a small chance. A 1/1/1 situation is better than a 2/1/1, as it reduces the choices available to scum, and eliminates the case of each scum hitting a different townie.

If we are not in a 2/1/1 situation, then Patrick is almost definitely a vig, and a No Lynch is an awful choice, as it takes away Patrick's last second chance to pull out the game by vigging the last scum.

Either way, I think a No Lynch is an awful idea, as it only seems to help the scum. If you have a better explanation for all this, I'd like to hear it.

[Jitsu]

First, you mention that Adel may have been killed because the mafia thought she could be a serial killer. Do you still think that was likely that the mafia thought there was a NKable serial killer when the mafia groupd had an unNKable godfather?

I do not still think that. But there's no contradiction here because I made that statement before Patrick claimed and we got the report that Xylthixlm was likely NK immune. Prior to Patrick's claim, I was not expecting an NK immune mafia. And actually, if you read my later posts, I say there that every mafia GF I had read about on this site was of the investigation-immune variety. I had not heard of the NK immune type. In the 30 or 40 games or so I've read on this site, I never saw a NK immune GF. The large majority of NK immune roles (possibly even all of them, I can't recall for sure) in the games I've read were SKs.

Also, what made you think the mafia were looking for a serial killer over a vigilante anyways?

As I said in the post, I thought that with a watcher and a tracker, that we would more likely than normal to have more scum power roles. My thought that the watcher and tracker were put into the setup for a reason and had more than just mafia goons to find.

As for Xylthixlm saying to lynch mafia, it's a lot easier to mislynch people for apparently being mafia than it is to mislynch for acting like a serial killer, at least in my opinion. I've seen lots of scum associations thrown out that didn't turn out to be accurate once the victims were actually identified, but I've seen few suspected serial killers, and most of those actually were serial killers. Finally, what makes you think Guardian was doing anything other than trying to survive?

The simple answer is: why wouldn't he? Although I'm sure that survival probably was Guardian's primary goal, he was already damaged goods and a likely lynch by the time he claimed. So why wouldn't he try to help his team as he went down? . But I think There were several people by myself talking about an SK: Adel, Guardian2, Xylthixlm,


I'm not even sure why you are bringing this up now. At the time of the post you reference, we knew far less information than we know now. I made speculative statements based on the information in hand

Jitsu, when I referred to the "additional benefit" that you were keeping quiet yesterday, I was thinking of what you'd said here:

As I said before, I have nothing to hide. As I said, there is some risk to any townie power roles left remaining, but the information we get could be very beneficial. I expect Oman and Xyl to lie, but what the remaining players say should be enlightening. I don't want to explain why, as the scum could benefit from that.

And similar followups. Were you simply referring to the identity of the second killer as the beneficial information we could gain?

That was the main thing, yes, but there was a little more.

The other question in my mind (and others') was why was there no kill on N2. Knowing if there were a doctor or not could possibly have allowed us a better guess at the setup and helped us figure out why there was no second kill on N2. A doc claim could also have led to confirming a townie later on if the doctor said he protected someone and nobody counterclaimed or the doctor got killed later on.

Knowing whether or not the kill were scum-blocked or not could possibly have hinted at some of the other roles in the game. Of course, what I didn't know at the time was that you already had some of that information. I was specifically looking out for a claim by the second killer and possibly another one from a doctor.

In addition, by looking at the overall picture of what town roles were claimed, we could have been in a better position to judge who was telling the truth by comparing their stories with each other to see if they fit. Kind of a consistency check, if you will.

Plus of course, there was always a chance that the scum would have fakeclaimed yet again (there's been a lot of that this game) and we could have gotten a counterclaim to out a scum.

[Jitsu]

I ask now because I didn't see how you came to some of your conclusions yesterday. And since we now have more information, I wanted to see how you reflected on your prior views. The answers were satisfactory, but not as informative as I thought they'd be.

It's simple really. I thought there was more likely to be an SK in the game, compared to a Vig. I believed that the mafia were trying to find that second killer,

who I thought was an SK

. I may still be right about the first half of that assumption, as Guardian2 may indeed have claimed SK to try to draw a counterclaim from the Vig. I admit, I didn't do the analysis on the case where we had a Vig instead of the SK, because I didn't think it was likely at the time.

Nevertheless, in the midst of several suspicions on townies, Matt did vote for Xylthixlm, although I think his reasons weren't very strong. Xylthixlm promptly countervotes Matt.

I reread around that time to see how that went down. I agree, Matt_S's vote on Xyl looked weak. Matt_S and Xylthixlm went at each other for a little while, then Matt_S just stopped posting for a long time, while keeping his vote on Xyl for a while afterward. In 473, Xylthixlm unvotes Matt_S because he won't get support for a lynch and Matt unvotes for what can only be assumed to be a similar reason (Xylthixlm doesn't look like a potential lynch candidate). In 519, Xylthixlm dings Matt_S yet again, but Matt_S never responds, instead voting ChaosOmega in 625. He has a couple more posts after that, then his 749 early on D2 says about Xylthixlm:

Also isn't the nicest player. While there were things he did I disapprove of, he did ask a lot of questions of players and their suspicions. Xylthixlm could go either way.

This doesn't seem to be very consistent with his earlier thoughts.

You know, Matt_S did a lot more lurking D1 and his D1 posts had a lot less content than I remembered. I want to reread him more carefully.


Also, I found these two quotes on D2:

Wow, spring break seems to be an interesting time for mafia. Unvote Guardian^2. Well, we have one claimed scum already, so if we can lynch mafia today, and we get a crosskill tonight, that leaves our serial killer and maybe another mafia tomorrow. If Adel's right about Guardian being a good scumhunter, and he actually is a serial killer, then we could have a decent situation tomorrow.

And when I asked him about this, he said:

I trust Adel quite a bit since she seems to know how to get things done in the long run. Adel seems to attract scummy actions with her craziness. However, if Guardian^2's actually mafia, then I'd have to put Adel as fairly likely scum. That's for a variety of complicated reasons.

I'd like to know what those reasons were.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu, you were more analytical than Matt_S, but I still can't get a good feel for how likely you thought it was that Guardian was mafia as opposed to SK, because it seems like all of your analysis assumed 5-1-3 (unless I'm missing some part).

All day, I felt that Guardian2 was more likely to be mafia than scum. When Guardian2 first claimed, I tried to consider his case a bit, but I was still pretty skeptical of his SK claim (probably about 60% likely to be mafia at that point). ChaosOmega was a heavy lurker and cast bad votes with no-existant reasons. That doesn't make for a good SK, if you ask me.

After reading the meta on ChaosOmega, the likelihood of Guardian2 being mafia increased a bit. Also, after I got into the exchange with Guardian about his strategy, he adamantly clung to his spiel about "it's OK, you can trust me, because I'm forced to help you -- you'll just lynch me if I betray you", which I wasn't really buying. If you had asked me right before the lynch what the chance of Guardian being Mafia was, I would have said about 80%.

[Jitsu]

This analysis focuses mostly on Erg0 and Matt, and largely ignores Patrick, as I believe there is little or no chance that he is scum. His play has been far too good, and the lack of a counterclaim to his Vig claim in my eyes virtually confirms him as town.


Day 1
-----

55: Erg0 tells Oman to stop fishing. Neither confirming nor denying is the right townie move IMO.
59: Matt's comment about Xyl "arguing for arbitrary daykills/lynches" seems to be overreacting a bit, like he's a bit too eager to associate himself with townies attacking Xyl.
61: Now Matt seems to consider the matter over? That was a pretty flimsy explanation.
80: Matt defends Erg0 a bit, and uses the wagon on him to vote Guardian. Some actual analysis here. Interesting comment about thinking Erg0 should deny a dayvig ability here. This could have also been a fishing attempt.
100: Kind of a bad FoS by Matt here on Oman. The followup exchange between Matt and Pickem is a bit weird -- some of Matt's responses don't make much sense here.
144: Matt reponse to my question makes no sense. And the "unless I believe the argument against someone, I defend them" comment? That doesn't sound right either to me -- "Innocent until proven guilty" does not apply to mafia. Rather, it's more the opposite.
146: Erg0 does not agree with Adel's conclusions on Opie.
148: Matt is playing the newbie card here.
162: This analysis by Xyl actually seems to be pretty accurate, for the most part. It looks to me here that he was definitely trying to look town and using his knowledge of peoples' alignments. But his criticism of Matt_S is a bit odd. I kind of get the impression that Xyl may have been coaching Matt here.
190: We've commented a lot on this already. Matt's FoS on Opie is awful. Maybe he's trying to support his scumbuddy Xyl here? But then he turns around and FoS's Xyl for criticizing people and not arguing the points? Something doesn't add up here. Xyl is obviously pushing Opie hard at this point, but Matt sees the need to throw some careful support behind the Opie wagon while also distrusting Xyl? Matt does not seem to see the contradiction in this line of thinking, let along try to resolve it.
191: Xyl returns fire on Matt for his bad 190. Possibly more coaching here.
206: Big attack by Xyl on Matt_S here, but no vote on him. Interesting that this point didn't show up in his 191. Xyl seems to have stepped up the attack only after Adel and Guardian commented.
221: After a scathing attack on Matt not more than a few posts earlier, Xyl seems to be pulling into the U turn lane here. The old "it's too obvious for him to be scum" argument? Ugh. This really looks like an attempt to sell the defense of a scumbuddy here.
226: Matt has a reasonable reply to Xyl here.
233: Matt retracts his FoSes on Opie and Oman and votes Xyl because of process of elimination?
235: Opie seems to have a good post criticizing Matt here, and Matt does not seem to have any response.
239: Agree with Erg0's comments about Xyl on this one. Xyl totally refuses to reply to Matt after this because his arguments and grammar are awful and don't make any sense? Seems like a good excuse for Xyl not to talk about Matt for awhile.
240: "Oops, forgot to vote for the person I found really suspicious."
242: Summary by Erg0. Attacks Matt and Xylthixlm here. Interesting here that he is one of the first few people to attack Xylthixlm here, when a lot of other townies (myself included), were more neutral/town on him. His points on Matt and Adel are good and his reasons look good. Definite townie points for Erg0 here, as he really has no good reason to attack Xyl this hard this early. Erg0 attacks me pretty hard here and starts the wagon on me, which I honestly can't really blame him for. To be honest, I probably would have attacked the inconsistency he found here too. The only real negative I can find with this post is that he seems to find a lot of people scummy here (Matt, Opie, Xyl, TG, Guardian, and me) and very few town (Incognito).
244: Interesting post from Xyl about Erg0 using completely different scumtells. Looks like either setting up for some distancing or trying to jutsify why his views are different than "Erg0 the townie".
245: Xyl seems to deny distancing from TG/Patrick and agrees with Erg0's logic here.
258: Erg0 presses TG on his reason for voting Xyl.
260: Xyl attacks Matt_S again, mentioning him as one of his two lynch candidates.
261: Xyl gets a town read off of Erg0.
273: Matt asks Xyl why his own logic is so bad.
299: Xyl responds to Matt but refuses to explain himself, saying he doesn't understand him and instead asks Matt to explain himself.
302: Erg0 tries to solicit comments about his case on me.
313/319: Xyl starts bussing ChaosOmega.
338: Matt plays the newbie card again. Odd attempt here to draw sympathy from the crowd?
345: Patrick enters the game and lays heavy suspicion on Matt_S, Xylthixlm, and ChaosOmega. Agrees with many of Erg0's opinions. Asks Matt here about his opinion of me.
347: Odd post where Xyl seems to be pushing Patrick to vote Matt over me.
356: I know Matt has been talking about Incognito previously, but he really seems to be laying into Incognito here, who we now know to be town. Most of the other players seemed to get the correct protown read on Incognito here. Matt also comments on me here which is interesting. Matt is really suspicious of Xylthixlm but yet here, he is basically agreeing with him that I am not scummy? This post looks similar to 190 in the sense that he seems to want to be seen as disagreeing with Xyl when in fact, his actions suggest otherwise.
368: Erg0 questions me about my earlier explanations for the turnaround. This looks like an honest attempt to feel me out, but I am just a tiny bit suspicious of him here because the question is a bit vague and could have been a trap (like he could have argued against me regardless if I had answered yes or no).
370: Pretty honest looking attempt by Patrick to feel out Adel's odd defense of me earlier.
465: Wait a minute, now Matt is throwing his weight behind Incognito's posts against Oman? What happened to his suspicion against Incognito?
471: Matt replies to Patrick's assertion that he has not commented on the most recent debates... by not really commenting on them.
473: Extremely thin reason for Xyl to leave Matt's wagon and hop back on Opie's.
484: Matt's extremely poor reason for unvoting Xyl when there was plenty of time to further debate the issues, as Patrick has already pointed out.
491: Erg0 goes after Xyl's Opie vote.
508: Matt is going fishing again? Patrick comments on this in the next post.
510: Erg0's golden post. He's correct about Opie and has named two of the scum, and his third suspect was certainly suspicious in his own right. This post pretty much either confirms him as town (why the heck would he attack both of his partners in the same post and vote one of them to bring him into the spotlight when he was sitting comfortably in most people's middle tiers?), or it is the bus of the century, which earns him so many townie points, that it's going to be nearly impossible to get lynched? I am much more likely to believe the former.
519: Xyl attacks Matt yet again, trying to get Erg0 to vote him.
521: Pretty reasonable and protown post by Erg0 here.
529: Another strong protown post by Erg0 here, slamming Xyl and ChaosOmega again.
538: Matt asserts he did NOT want to get another claim on D1. So Matt is basically asserting the exact opposite of what he intended?
551: Patrick presses an attack on ChaosOmega and Xyl here.
620: Xyl's mention of how Matt has not done anything scummy in the last wee-, er, last couple d-, er, last two posts? Is Xyl defending Matt or attacking him here?
624: Erg0 changes vote to ChaosOmega.
625: Matt quickly jumps on ChaosOmega wagon saying we're running out of time.
658: Interesing post by ChaosOmega to go after Xyl for attacking Matt_S and switch over to Opie at deadline to mislynch. Now ChaosOmega finds Matt and Xyl suspicious after not having said anything about them earlier?
662: Xyl counterattacks ChaosOmega, with no comment on Matt.
687: Matt's respons here isn't very helpful and seems to be flinging it right back at Incognito here.


Day 2
-----
715: Erg0 quick vote on ChaosOmega, but reasonable, given the circumstances.
746: Erg0 admits his theory of the mafia setting him up was egocentric. A bit vague about his support for not rushing the CO lynch, though.
749: Matt's analysis. Odd opinion of Xylthixlm since he did a lot of stuff Matt was suspicious of, and Xylthixlm didn't seem to do much to allay his fears, and continued to attack him. Odd opinion of Oman being useful and protown on D1, when few others seemed to think that, and brought up an odd point about Incognito here. Interesting that Matt here doesn't seem to really paint ANYONE as being really scummy here other than perhaps CO.
757: Erg0 slams Adel for her behavior on D1. His followup in 762 is reasonable also.
761: Matt is more suspicious of nice people today than mean people? WTF is up with that?
781: Good post by Erg0 in 792, saying we should be lynching CO before Adel.
841: Interesting post here by Xyl. He is basically saying that he can't find a problem with Oman, which also seems to fit with Matt's earlier statements in 749 of not finding Oman suspicious. Did the scum agree N1 to keep Oman around because he would be good mislynch bait later on? See early D3 comments for connection.
900: Good post by Erg0 on the likelihood of mafia claiming Cop vs. SK claiming cop.
924: Erg0 criticizes Adel's plan to support Guardian2.
949: One point I can make in favor of Matt is why is Guardian2 bussing Matt here when Matt is not at the top of a lot of player's lists? The only reason I can think of Guardian2 bussing Matt is so when Guardian2 eventually gets lynched, people second guess his suspicion of Matt.
980: A good question here from Matt about why Adel trusts Guardian2 who replaced ChaosOmega.
1022: Good counterattack by Erg0 against Guardian2 here.
1131: Matt unvotes Guardian2 to try to get a crosskill, letting Guardian2 off the hook. Seems to really believe that Guardian is the SK here.
1138: We still haven't gotten an answer why Matt thought that if Guardian2 was scum that Adel was fairly likely scum. Is this Matt setting Adel up for a mislynch on D3? Also, Matt thinks Guardian2 is the SK because nobody counterclaimed him?
1208: Erg0 correctly refutes Guardian2's (and Matt's from 1138) assertion that Guardian2 must be the SK because he was not counterclaimed. It's interesting that Guardian2 basically swiped Matt's reason from 1138 and Matt doesn't find this suspicious.
1224: Xyl tries to shoot holes in Erg0's analysis that was largely correct.
1228: Strong rebuttal by Erg0 against Xyl's crappy post 1224.
1232: Erg0 provides the nail in Guardian2's coffin by finally providing the reason I was trying to get at. The town still had a winnable position -- why should we throw the game just to punish Guardian2-SK for breaking the contract? 1234 and 1237 are also strong followups to this point.


Day 3
-----
1262: Matt thinks Xyl is going to WIFOM Oman into a lynch now? This is interesting given 749 and 841.
1266-1271: Given me previous comment, could this whole exchange have been rehearsed N2? I think it's quite possible.
1280: Xyl wants to lynch Oman. But for second place, he favors Incognito or Patrick, two of the strongest townies at that point. What happened to Matt, who he just finished feuding with about Oman?
1286: I agree with Erg0's statement that Guardian2 was fully expecting to be lynched the day before and played accordingly.
1355: Matt seems to believe Patrick, but does not express any intent to vote Xyl here.


Day 4
-----
1388: I'm a bit distressed about Erg0 so quickly asserting that he is the innocent townie and that we can win if Patrick spares him, but in light of this reread, this could easily be the honest reaction of an innocent.
1400, 1402: These posts sound like a bit of a turnaround from 1397 where he practically declared Patrick innocent and was only deciding between me and Matt. And I already said how I disagree with his analysis if we are in 2/1/1.
1406: Not a great explanation to my questions by Erg0, but I have to admit it could also be consistent with a townie that simply forgot to consider the small chance that Patrick is an SK and that there was another mafia left.
1407: Matt tries to sling some dirt at me for my logic yesterday. This looks like a really bad attempt to throw suspicion on me. I can't really see how the questions he's asking would reveal anything about me because there was no contradiction, as I mentioned in 1410. His other questions didn't even make much sense.
1423: I agree with Erg0's point that how people change their opinion of someone once it looks like they are going to be lynched is very telling.
1424: I can't find much to disagree with in Erg0's analysis. I can only speculate why all of the mafia apparently left me alone the entire game, and my desire to lynch the SK was an honest attempt to try to avoid an unpleasant endgame for the town.



Anaylsis
--------

Overall, the quality of Erg0's posts and how helpful they were to the town far, far outweighs Matt's. Erg0 developed an early theory of the Xyl/Oman/ChaosOmega trio at a time when it wasn't necessary to bus his potential partners, and more imporantly, his actions for the rest of the game pretty much stayed true and consistent with those initial suspicions. If Erg0 were scum, I have to think it would have been extremely difficult to be that consistent and continue to provide good logic in his posts. When things started turning against Xyl and ChaosOmega really badly, his behavior toward them did not change. He constantly asserted and reaffirmed his positions, and I find myself totally believing his reactions after that. And as mentioned previously, Erg0's post 510 pretty much either has to confirm him as town or has to make him look so good as a bussing scum that he would never be lynched. If Erg0 really did lie about post 510 and was able to be that consistent with his posts after that as scum, then he deserves to win this game.

On the other hand, Matt's early posts on Day 1, as Patrick said, were awful. He didn't seem to analyze or try to scumhunt at all, and in several cases above where he stated his opposition to Xylthixlm, his actions didn't pan out with that, and in fact, his actions seemed to subtly support Xylthixlm, particularly in his 190 and 356. Matt's alternating suspicion and support of Incognito around 356 and 465 seem odd also. Most people other than Guardian and Adel seems to think Incognito were pretty consistently protown. In fact, of the players left in the game, Matt is the only one who really ever attacked Incognito in the entire game, and Matt did it several times (not an isolated incident). Matt's behavior was awful at the end of Day 1 also, implying that there wasn't sufficient time to lynch anyone but the vote leaders, and also how he seemed to back out of asking for a second claim.

And I agree with Erg0 that Xylthixlm's reactions to Matt were telling. Adel taught me in Underground Mafia that looking for people's reactions toward each other that I could not explain should be treated suspiciously, and Xyl's huge amount of attention on Matt on D1 (when just about everyone else did not) looks really awful. Xyl's alternating between attacking Matt and defending him just looks awful, and the reasons he stated for it range from non-existant at worst, to flimsy at best. Matt's analysis on D2 seemed really suspect (see comment on 749 above) and I don't like his wavering support/enmity for Guardian2 on that day either. And Matt really had no comment about Guardian2's bogus "I am forced to do what the town wants" argument? At the same time, Erg0 was going into full attack mode on Guardian2, which is perfectly consistent with his earlier statements. Xylthixlm also attacked Erg0 and myself at the end of the day, when he was about to be lynched after previously seeming to agree with us earlier. However, Xyl never mentioned Matt's suspicious behavior on D2.

The odd Matt/Xyl interaction seemed to continue at the start of D3, and it really looks to me like it was rehearsed the night before, after Xyl's scummy looking play on D2. Also, Xyl not expressing any intent to vote Xyl after apparently believing Patrick in 1355 doesn't make him look any better. Today, I didn't like Erg0's early posts, but frankly, Matt's posts have been worse.

In fact, not just on D1, but for the entire game, Matt has done little to no scumhunting. Erg0 has. In light of this analysis, I have to agree with Patrick's comments about Erg0. He has been extremely consistent and protown looking. I really cannot even come close to making any reasonable case against Erg0. Unless Erg0 makes some kind of a fatal slip, my opinion is that Matt is our man.

Vote: Matt_S

======================================================

Page 58 Votecount

Matt_S - 1 (Jitsu)

Not voting - 3 (Matt_S, Erg0, Patrick)

With 4 alive, it's 3 to lynch.
Deadline for D4: Thursday May 11, 11:11AM GMT+10
================================================

[Jitsu]

Jitsu's vote was pretty much what I'd expect, since I don't think he really has another viable suspect.

That's true, but I didn't know that after I completed my analysis.

I was leaning toward Matt being the final scum when the day began (due to my state of mind finding Erg0 less suspicious than Matt on previous days). I was cognizant of confirmation bias, and I tried my best to give as fair of a read as possible on both Matt and Erg0.

But after the reread, it really was honestly not even close. Matt looked far scummier to me after a reread (reading Day 1 knowing Xylthixlm was scum was very enlightening). My analysis was not just a kangaroo court to implicate Matt -- there was over 8 hours of work there.

I too will wait to hear from Matt about his thoughts, but I am pretty happy with my vote right now.

[Jitsu]

EBWOP:

That's true, but I didn't know that until after I completed my analysis.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu often seems to use similar logic to me

Given your play this game, I consider that quite a compliment. Thanks.

[Jitsu]

I'm checking in.

Matt, are you waiting on something before you make your final conclusion?

[Jitsu]

Jitsu and Erg0 have been prodded

@Mod: Ummm, did you see 1443?

[Jitsu]

No, I didn't. Sorry.

No apology necessary.

On a further note, since Matt is apparently looking for some kind of response/defense, I will weigh in with some comments later this weekend.

======================================================

Page 59 Votecount

Matt_S - 1 (Jitsu)

Not voting - 3 (Matt_S, Erg0, Patrick)

With 4 alive, it's 3 to lynch.
Deadline for D4: Thursday May 11, 11:11AM GMT+10
================================================

[Jitsu]

I'm not terribly impressed with Matt's conclusions, but there is something worth defending, so I'll speak to that. My playstyle has been to attack hard when I feel I have a good case and sit back and gather more information when my case is weak. Xylthixlm looked okay to me to me early on Day 1, as he attacked Matt for his wishy-washy responses and seemed to treat Guardian fairly. Xylthixlm started to stink to me when he declared Guardian town because of two fairly insignificant posts in a sea of suspicious ones. Then Xyl admitted fighting against the Guardian lynch because he thought he was town. And finally Xyl jumped on the Opie wagon in a scummy way, and jumped off in a scummier way. But at that point, my attention was focused more on Guardian1 and ChaosOmega. As I said, rereading Day 1 with all the revealed alignments let me see a lot of things I didn't pick up on the first time around.

I don't read too much into who Erg0 voted at the end of D1. Erg0 suspected CO, Xyl, and Oman and made his opinions known. He couldn't really go after all three, as it's counterproductive. He had to pick one to go after, and he did. Matt says that Erg0's interaction with Xylthixlm was odd, considering that he was one of Erg0's suspects? That's quite the hypocritical statement considering Matt and Xylthixlm's interactions with each other.

In response to Erg0's opinion of Day 2, I don't believe in "free" days, especially when we are down three townies on the morning of D2. I believe that when discussion stagnates, no more information comes out, and that the information from the previous day has been adequately discussed, then it is time to move on. Not before. We only get so many days as town, and I believe in making the most of them, when there are more people around to get opinions from and interactions with. I think there does exist a point when you can talk too long, as even innocent townies can get bored/disgusted and an honest desire to see the day want to end can be misinterpreted. But we weren't anywhere near that point in D2 when I fought to stop the ChaosOmega lynch. My attitude was that ChaosOmega was already on Death Row at that point, and we only needed to decide it was time to pull the trigger. While I don't advocate letting "confirmed scum" live, allowing the day to last a little longer to give scumbuddies a chance to distance or bus him is usually not a bad idea. Case in point, the additional discussion probably helped to implicate Xylthixlm for Day 3. I don't really consider this much of a scumtell on Erg0 though.

Also, on Day 2, I was kind of distracted by Adel. She was votehopping a lot, several orders of magnitude more than in our previous game (Underground Mafia), where her suspicions were a lot more consistent. She didn't give a lot of reasons for her votes, and some of the ones she did give were kind of weak. I couldn't quite figure out how she fit into the scum picture though, which was confusing me. Now that I look back at it, Adel's declaration to let Guardian2 direct her vote could very well have been a trap to see who would fall for it. Who was it that bit at the idea? It was Matt. I really cannot see why a townie would want to let a confirmed scum direct their vote, other than as a gambit. Matt says that he was impressed with Adel and trusted her. Given Adel's random lynch Day 1 and her votehopping on Day 2, would it not have been wise to not fully trust Adel at that point? I certainly don't think anyone else was trusting her.

I think I've already covered my opinion on why I thought there was an SK. I don't think my logic as to why there was an SK in the game was awful -- I just made a wrong guess about the setup. I thought that the Mod would be a more likely to have an SK as opposed to a Vig -- given the presence of a tracker and watcher, I thought having more scum power and an SK would make more sense, since town power roles (especially a Vig) would be likely to catch flak from the watcher/tracker. I could easily see a "I am a tracker and I have you targeting the person that died last night. Do you confirm or deny this?" situation occurring.

And as far as Day 3 went, once Patrick claimed and the likelihood of an SK dropped to near zero, the setup was relatively easy to figure out from there. With the correct setup in mind, things dropped into place for me, and it was a pretty easy decision to jump on Xylthixlm.

Matt is still my preferred lynch today, and I don't like the vague nature of his attacks on Erg0 in particular. I feel like he's reaching to try to discredit both Jitsu and Erg0, which may indicate he's a mafia goon. Of course, a townie may try and ensure both the other suspects are killed too, to ensure a town win, so it's mostly just a gut feeling. If Matt is lynched as town today, I'd be vigging Jitsu if not roleblocked.

I feel very, very good that Matt is the last scum, so I certainly endorse his lynch. His analysis really does not have a lot of substance in it at all, and it seems to me that he is being extremely cautious with it so that he doesn't make a blunder that will cost him the game. His observations are fine, but there's no teeth to his conclusions. Nearly every conclusion he's made seems to be qualified by something like "but that may not mean anything". I do agree with Erg0's latest analysis and conclusions on Matt. Matt's interactions with Xyl on D1 are quite suspicious, and I do agree with Erg0's conclusion that Matt's interaction with Xyl early on Day 3 looks fake and scripted (I mentioned that in my analysis earlier, actually). Erg0's explanation of why Adel needed to die is also plausible.

I know that Patrick is looking for some kind of response from me on his last sentence here, but I really don't know what to say. I obviously disagree with the plan to vig me, but I can't blame you for it. If Matt is lynched and comes up town, then we're screwed, because I cannot make a case against Erg0 (or you). How do you make a case on someone that you are pretty convinced is townie? I honestly tried to look at Erg0 really hard and make a case that he knew too much too early, that he wanted to end the day quickly on D2, and so on, but even I don't believe he's scum. If you compare Erg0 and I head-to-head in this game, then Erg0 is the one that looks less scummy. I really can't argue with that.

All three of Erg0, Matt, and I have named CO and Xyl in our top three sometime during the game (Erg0 in 510 and myself in 693, and Matt in 749), so assuming that there is only one scum remaining, that scum had to have bussed both his partners at some point. The fact that Matt did it only after others expressed their opinions makes his the most suspect. I think by far the most likely scenario is that Erg0 is also telling the truth and Matt is our last scum. But the power here is not in my hands. It is up to Patrick and Erg0 to choose.

[Jitsu]

Am I the only one who saw Xylthixlm push so hard for Adel's lynch? Am I the only one who thought that was scummy? Am I the only one who then believed Adel was attracting scum?

No, no, and no.

I did see Xylthixlm pushing hard for Adel's lynch and I did think that was scummy -- I thought Xylthixlm was scummy even before that. But you're saying that we should have trusted Adel because a scummy person attacked her hard? Using that to lean toward her being town would have been reasonable.

But regardless of how much you trusted her, allowing a (virtually) confirmed scum to help you scumhunt is something that should as least make you think twice about her motives. However, you appeared to dive right in.

And finally, I completely agree that Adel's plays attract scum. And I do believe she did attractetd one with her gambit there -- you.

[Jitsu]

Agreed. I am town, so if Erg0 is also, I think we've got it. Man, lynching three scum in a row would be a really sweet way to end this game.

[Jitsu]

Thank goodness... Um, you can put down that gun now, Patrick

Patrick?

In all seriousness, I congratulate the town on pulling it out and the scum for making it a good game. It's been a lot of fun.

Now that the suspense is over, I can get a good night's rest. Additional comments to come tomorrow.

[Jitsu]

Keep in mind that this was only my second game of mafia ever, but I think I have some useful feedback nonetheless.

1) Was the setup balanced? Or, rather, would it have been balanced if the tracker and watcher didn't die before doing anything ?

I think it was pretty well balanced. The game would obviously have been very different if we hadn't lost the tracker and watcher so quickly. It might have been a little biased a bit towards the town, but not much. I agree a roleblocker would have been too much, as it would have nerfed the vig pretty bad (I think I mentioned that in thread). With three power roles on the town side and only one mafia role for the watcher/tracker to find on any given night (the one actually making the kill), the watcher/tracker would had a much higher chance of seeing a townie target someone than a mafioso target someone. This did lead me down the wrong track as far as the setup went. I would have expected more scum with targeted abilities for the tracker/watcher to find.

2) I basically came up with my nightkill MOs on a whim. As in, there was nothing systematic about them; it was just me trying to have fun with the deaths. Was that appropriate?

I tend to agree with Erg0 here (people are probably getting tired of hearing that by now). If you don't want the flavor text to be used to reason out who killed who, making each kill unique sends the signal that the town shouldn't rely on the flavor. If you do want the town to use it, then it should be consistent -- each scum should have a kill method that stays constant throughout the game. Personally, I like using the information to try to deduce things.

3) Vote-counts. Did my system of having the top-of-page counts and the first page collection work well?

I liked it a lot. The interim vote counts eliminated the need to go back to the first page to figure out the vote count while reading, but the tallies on the first page served as a useful index of the game. If I wanted to figure out why someone voted someone else, I used the index to figure out what page the vote was on. This saved me a lot of time, since I tend not to keep a lot of notes.

4) Anything else?

Yes, I think in some cases, the flavor text gave things away. I don't know how others feel, but in a closed game, I would rather not be able to read into things to guess at the setup. Patrick was able to guess there was no SK from the opening post, and in the dawn post on Day 4, the line about Oman being pleased because the scum were nearly gone virtually confirmed to me there was no SK and only a single mafioso left. I have to think that was a little unfair to the scum. One advantage I think the scum should have over the town is that they should have a head start at guessing about the setup based on the roles they have. If you drop hints to the town, this advantage gets nerfed. I feel like the town should be clueless in a closed game so the scum can try to deceive the town with fakeclaims and the like. If you are going to give clues in the flavortext, they should be subtle and not easy to pick up on. Kind of a reward for people that are paying close attention.

All in all, I think you did an excellent job modding your first game. I would definitely enjoy playing with you again. Your attention to detail and timeliness is a very positive aspect in a mod. I think it's clear that you cared a lot about this game and really went the extra mile. I also enjoyed the non-standard setup. I think it would have been very interesting had the Tracker or Watcher lived to Day 2. It's gotta suck as a mod when a good chunk of the power roles die before they can do anything.

Thank goodness... Um, you can put down that gun now, Patrick

Patrick

?

I think I'll hold onto it

If Patrick is going to stay in VollVille with the gun, I'm moving out. Is there any room for me in Erg0ville or Incognitoville? Somehow I don't think I'm prepared for Adelville.

[Jitsu]

I started a tradition of giving comments to everyone after my first game, considering that I have only played one game at a time, and when you play with people for months at a time, you do get to know them a bit. So I'd like to continue that tradition here.

I agree with Guardian (thankfully I can stop putting 1 and 2 after his name, man that was getting annoying). This was really a team effort on the part of the town that ended up winning the game. A lot of things helped (which I'll mention below), but I think what ultimately won it was that there were was so much strong town play that the scum just could not kill enough strong townies fast enough. At the end of the game, Matt just ran out of scummy people to hide behind. This game was an excellent example of how if a large number of townies do not act scummy and do a good job scumhunting, the town can win.

@Guardian: Replacing in for ChaosOmega in the situation he got himself into was a very classy move and earns you a truckload of good karma points in my book. Nobody can say that you weren't a good sport in this game. Also, I feel a little bad for attacking you so hard on D1, and I think I might have gotten a bit smug at times, which wasn't my intention. I'm sorry about that. Actually though, your losing your cool and looking scummy is what turned me on to Xylthixlm in the first place, so some good did some out of it. I hope there's no hard feelings.

@Adel: I really gave you quite a bit of the benefit of the doubt on D1. I kind of followed your voting to a point then, but near the end of D2, you were so incredibly hard to read that I was having a really hard time seeing you as townie, even in spite of knowing your playstyle from Underground Mafia. As much as I think it was awful what you did to Opie, I have to admit that it got results. It definitely helped to put all of the scum into the spotlight in some way early. Actually, on D2, my attempt to try to turn the scum against each other by encouraging the scum and SK to counterclaiming to out each other was inspired by your playstyle. It's just too bad it didn't work -- though I thank you for trying to help me sell it. I don't think I could ever adopt your style of play, but I've learned something from you in both our games together and I appreciate how you are willing to sacrifice yourself to out scum. I also thank you for sticking up for me on D1 before we got to suspecting each other later on. I think if you had attacked me D1 while the suspicion was on me, I might not have been so calm. Honestly, I was thinking about leaving the game because I was confused early in the day and I thought I was hurting the town, but your support helped me stick with it.

@Pickemgenius: You got killed before I could interact much with you, but I also appreciate your support for me on D1 also.

@Oman: Your attempt to draw the NK was admirable, but the execution, not so much. I kind of feel bad that we rode you really hard too, but I really was having a hard time seeing you as town after the very beginning of D1. At least you tried to do the right thing in the end. Honestly, I think if you had continued playing more like you did earlier on D1, you would have been a much bigger asset to the town.

@Xylthixlm, ChaosOmega, Matt_S: Thanks for making this a fun game. I felt a little bad for you, as I think the deck really was stacked against you due to bad luck on the role draw. You really drew a tough set of townies to try to beat. I congratulate Matt_S for making it to the endgame against a very strong town. I myself didn't get fully committed to Matt until I did a complete reread knowing most of the players' alignments. I think you did a decent job of laying low without making it extremely obvious at the time. I was on to you here and there, but I was never sure enough to pull the trigger until the very end.

@Opie: I feel bad for what happened to you, but you did not die in vain. Your calm and dignified manner on the way to an awful lynch did let a lot of the town see the truth about you, and that got people on to the right track early. Letting the other townies figure out you were town and get their opinions on record BEFORE your alignment was revealed was a key component in the victory, I feel. You definitely deserve your share of the victory.

@Patrick: I don't blame you at all for vigging Guardian1. I definitely would have done the same thing in your shoes. At least I think you got rid of someone who could have been a distraction on later days. And your Vig claim was perfectly timed. Once you did that, everything fell into place for me. And your scumhunting was top-notch as well. I understand your paranoia. I had pretty much cleared you from the D4 dawn post and a lack of counterclaim from your Vig claim, but there was this creepy feeling in the back of my brain that Erg0-scum was sitting at his keyboard laughing at how he had manipulated all of us suckers into killing each other. It wasn't just that I chose not to attack Erg0 -- I really did not have anything in the way of ammunition to throw at him. I was hoping beyond hope that Matt came up scum, as I knew we'd lose if he didn't. Though I did get to sneak in a post just before Vollkan locked the thread for the final death scene (doing that with Vollkan watching the thread like a hawk was not easy) to try to convince you I was town -- I was hoping you'd figure that if I were a roleblocker, I would have had no reason to lie at that point, and if I were a goon, I would have killed you the night before. Thankfully, it never came to that.

@Incognito: I admire your tenacity in investigating suspects and not being afraid to stand so firmly behind your cases. What you did, you did with gusto. I aspire to integrate some elements of your playstyle and Vollkan's into my own.

@Erg0: It still amazes me just how quickly you caught on to the scum on D1. And it wasn't just some lucky guess -- you followed the trail of clues and latched on to two of the scum through excellent logic and deduction. Compared my logic and way of thinking to your own was a great honor, considering how well you played this game. Gun to my head, if I were forced to pick an MVP for this game, and I'd be very reluctant to, given how many townies played well, I'd have to give it to you. Why the scum didn't off you sooner, I have no idea.

Just like my first game, I learned quite a bit about the more subtle points of Mafia strategy in this game. It was certainly a learning experience that I think will make me a stronger player in the future. Frankly, I'm just in awe of how some of you can play such a strong game here and participate in multiple other games at the same time. It was a fantastic experience for me to play with so many seasoned veterans in this game, and for a lot of the game, it took all of my brainpower and time just to try and keep up. I really did get overwhelmed at certain points during the game, and it's amazing to me that some of you did not. I was really freaking out after such an awful D1, but that only made the three consecutive scum lynches for the win that much more sweet.

Thank you to Vollkan for an excelling modding job, and to all of you for making the game fun. I look forward to testing myself against all of you again sometime. Thanks to the scum for being good sports, and congratulations to the town for a well-deserved win!

[Jitsu]

I must say that I'm kinda glad I was NK-ed when I was. If I was placed in Patrick's shoes trying to decide between Jitsu and Matt_S, I would have been pretty torn. I was sold on Erg0 being town pretty much the whole game but Jitsu and Matt_S gave me mixed feelings. So very well done job by the end-game crew of Patrick, Erg0, and Jitsu of analyzing the entire thread and making a good logical decision.

Thanks. I was a bit distraught because I got off to a slow start. I think I did better the end of D1 and into the middle of D2, but I was definitely part of the clueless vanilla crew with you. I think I did get sidetracked trying to figure Adel out and I got a bit too obsessed trying to figure out where the second kill was coming from -- overanalyzing caused me to stumble around for a while thinking there was an SK. Once Patrick claimed, my confusion pretty much dissipated.

I had a much easier decision at endgame than Erg0 and Patrick did, for sure, but I did do my homework. I'd like to think my endgame analysis and conclusions helped the town some, but in reality, I fear it would all have been for naught had Patrick and Erg0 not done the same.

I did get really frustrated several times when my honest attempts to be a good townie were misinterpreted, and in several cases, my inexperience almost hurt the town. But being that this was only my second game ever, I guess I shouldn't be too hard on myself. I don't think I did quite as well here as in Underground Mafia, but this game was more difficult for me in a number of ways. I'm just glad that I was able to play well enough to avoid being lynched.

[Jitsu]

I'll say this too: with Erg0, Patrick, and Incognito around, it was pretty damn hard to look really townie, even though I was trying my best. Trying to look innocent when you're being compared against the likes of Mother Theresa, Mahatma Gandhi, and the Dalai Lama was a challenge, to say the least.

I suppose though that being mistaken for a non-obvious scum is somewhat of a compliment in itself.

[Jitsu]

I wasn't really that suspicious of your play when choosing on day 4, it was more just that there was no interaction with Xylthixlm that meant I could rule it out, and Xylthixlm pretty much shrugged you off all game, in a way you sometimes see scum ignoring their partners.

That was somewhat deliberate.

@Patrick: I know. No hard feelings. I would not have wanted to be in your position, that's for sure.

@Xylthixlm: Really? You intentionally ignored me to try to throw suspicion on me? I would have thought you might have tried to go after me because I'm a newbie.

It would have worked, too, if it weren't for you meddling vig!

ZOMG, I love Scooby Doo.

[Jitsu]

Other random facts: When Jitsu suggested some additional benefit to massclaiming but wasn't willing to say what it was, I half wondered if he was alluding to something in the vanilla townie PM that could help clear a townie or two (without realising it would be unethical of course).

I did make an honest mistake in Underground Mafia by mentioning an ongoing game, but I knew not to allude to something in a PM (save for role reveal in general terms). I'd read some of the Discussion threads about grammar lynches and why Mods post the vanilla townie role PMs in the first post.

I'm interesting in modding sometime. I've been a D&D DM for a long time, and I like moderating just as much as playing.

[Jitsu]

It's fun. If you need someone to look over the setup, feel free to come to me.

Thank you very much -- I will.

[Jitsu]

Thanks for these comments.

I give credit where credit is due. Your 100% case on Guardian turned out to be wrong (just like I was later on), but you had the guts to stick to it and you believed it. One of the flaws I've had in this game and my previous one is that I haven't voted enough, I think. From Day 2 onward, I voted only twice, which wasn't enough, I think (granted, those two votes were both for scum). I've spent too much time analyzing and waiting until I was really sure before voting. That's nice and all, but I could do better by voting a bit more often to apply pressure and watch reactions. I think I've been too timid and need to vote a little more on habeas corpus.

I don't think you played poorly here at all, Jitsu. I could see how a lot of the early stuff with opie might have been confusing, and I think the only thing that made me somewhat nervous about you was that shift in position with respect to opie. Aside from that, I think your play here was very solid and logical. I think there were moments where I was thinking "hmmm, Jitsu's seeming a little

too

townie", and there were moments where I began thinking that your play may have been a ruse but that was probably just paranoia creeping in.

Thank you, I tend to be a little hard on myself, and bragging isn't my style. Overall, I'm pleased with my effort here -- I think I could have done better, but I feel I helped the town win, and that's what's important. I can't remember reading a lot of games here on MS where so many townies (many of them vanilla) had a big impact on the outcome.

Heh, I got the "too townie" response in my last game too. I had to work hard to convince a couple people I wasn't acting. It's amazing how easy it is to make people suspect you, even when you are honestly working at avoiding that. I guess that's just the nature of mafia and the tendency to be suspicious of everyone.

[Jitsu]

Unfortunately, I spent most of the game freaking out about how scummy my partners were acting(what Patrick calls Stoofer's syndrome). That, not distancing, is why I voted Xylthixlm day 1. And day 3 for using such crappy WIFOM. I tried to warn you . The fact that you attacked me back made it awkward for me since I couldn't just back down suddenly, so I had to keep attacking you. It also surprises me how little I had to lie. However, I think my truthfulness was my downfall. I didn't make enough cases on people because I knew they were crap.

Now, I have a question for the town. If Guardian^2 really was the serial killer, and you knew he wasn't actually mafia, would you view lynching him as the best move? I thought that letting him live would be the best move from the town's perspective, so I went with it.

I totally believe you were freaking out most of the game. It's a wonder you didn't have an aneurysm. Don't be so hard on yourself. I think you did a pretty decent job, all things considered. Your partners dug you a pretty big hole, IMHO. ChaosOmega's lurking and not justifying any of his votes doomed him D1, and Xylthixlm's alternating between attacking you for odd things and then ignoring you is ultimately what did both of you in. Once Xylthixlm drew the Vig kill (even though it failed), it was over. I would say that I caught you not so much by anything you said as it was how your partners interacted with you.

As for your question, I agree it is a tough call. You need to lynch the mafia to get the ratio down, but having an SK around at endgame gets very messy. With losing three townies on Day 1, I might have been tempted to keep the SK around for a day to try to get a crosskill, but as Incognito said (and actually I had independently come to the same conclusion at about the same time), an SK could have chosen to NK a townie to ensure that he would live to endgame, had we mislynched. For that reason, I'd probably have to lynch the known SK.