Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Xylthixlm]

Vote Xylthixlm

for having an unpronounceable name.

ZIL-thick-selm.

Vote Matt_S

for voting me for an untrue reason.

[Xylthixlm]

TrustGossip is obviously being overdefensive.

[Xylthixlm]

Lol, is this a joke?

Yes.

[Xylthixlm]

This discussion is detracting from the process of lynching... who has the most votes? Erg0? This discussion is detracting from the process of lynching Erg0.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not sure that threatening a dayvig based on a player's general knowledge could really be considered a scumtell.

I'm all for arbitrary daykills, but announcing them beforehand is just silly. It takes all the fun out of the "OMG! A daykill! Who did it?! Do you think they're scum?!" reactions.

Not that I think you actually have a daykill.

[Xylthixlm]

Why are arbitrary daykills a good idea?

Why is lynching a good idea?

[Xylthixlm]

Lynching and daykills are both fine, if done properly; it's the arbitrary part I disagree with.

Granted on D1, there is usually not much information to go on, but I still think that it is in the town's best interest to go for the highest percentage plays and those that give the most information, rather than choose targets arbitrarily.

Do you disagree?

Main Entry: ar·bi·trary
Function: adjective
1: depending on individual discretion (as of a judge) and not fixed by law <the manner of punishment is arbitrary>
2 a: not restrained or limited in the exercise of power : ruling by absolute authority <an arbitrary government> b: marked by or resulting from the unrestrained and often tyrannical exercise of power <protection from arbitrary arrest and detention>
3 a: based on or determined by individual preference or convenience rather than by necessity or the intrinsic nature of something <an arbitrary standard> <take any arbitrary positive number> <arbitrary division of historical studies into watertight compartments — A. J. Toynbee> b: existing or coming about seemingly at random or by chance or as a capricious and unreasonable act of will <when a task is not seen in a meaningful context it is experienced as being arbitrary — Nehemiah Jordan>

Why did you assume that when I said "arbitrary", I meant definition 3b?

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl, did you mean definition 3b? If not, please explain what you did mean, and why you thought that it should not have been assumed that you meant 3b.

I'm in favor of daykills being decided by the daykiller, by whatever method they want to use. If you know a better word for that than "arbitrarily", please suggest it. Personally, when I get a daykill, I tend to wait until day has lasted for a while and then just suddenly shoot the scummiest person.

As for why I thought it shouldn't be assumed... well, in fact, I expected that some people

would

assume I meant "randomly". Take that however you like.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't really like this post, it doesn't really say much.

At first I thought pickemgenius was referring to his

own

post. I agree it doesn't say much, but I was wondering why he pointed it out....

How else are you supposed to start convo, then with a good ol random BW?

You could start pointless arguments about the meaning of words, or you could fake-daykill random players. Although personally, I was almost hoping that one of those daykills was real. The whole "I'm voting X because X voted Y for a bad reason" "But that's a bad reason to vote X" thing is so ... boring.

Guardian's vote on Erg0 was random, and really, we

do

need a bandwagon. I don't see anything wrong with any of his other posts either. opie's attack on him in post 101 seems unfounded.

It's not much to go on, but it's a start. The fact that opie already has a bandwagon going is a bonus.

Unvote Matt_S, vote opie

[Xylthixlm]

LOL TOO TOWNIE ROFL

Vote: Xylthixlm

I love you too.

[Xylthixlm]

Opie doesn't have a bandwagon, he has Adel.

Oops! I somehow confused opie with Oman. My bad.

It's time to get a bandwagon on opie started anyways.

[Xylthixlm]

I just want to clarify something. Xylthixlm, in Post 118 you meant to vote for Oman?

I'm being confused for Oman now, am I? I'm not sure what to make of this.

*shakes ahead and walks away*

I meant to vote for you. The confusion was in my reading the votecount.

[Xylthixlm]

In Mini 515, Adel replaced in. In her first few posts she introduced some innovative approaches to finding scum. I quickly jumped on her for being scum. I was wrong.

I like the telepathic method of finding scum, myself.
1. Read the game
2. Think very hard
3. Point out the scum

[Xylthixlm]

Okay, scumdar time. My overall read on the game so far is that there really isn't enough interaction to pull out anything useful, so I expect these impressions to change rapidly.

Adel

: Neutral; seems to be agitating things without a lot of logic. Talk of an algorithm is amusing. I'd love to know how many townies it has correctly identified, so I can compute error rates.

ChaosOmega

: Only one post. Appears to have been active in other games, perhaps he forgot about this one.

Mod: Can we get a prod on ChaosOmega?

Erg0

: Leaning town. Seems to be looking for scum.

Guardian

: Unsure. Asks a lot of questions, but doesn't seem to do anything with the answers.

Incognito

: Neutral, leaning town. Asks a lot of questions, seems to be looking for scum. Needs to give more opinions.

Jitsu

: Fairly town. Seems pretty sharp. Logical, actively looking for scum.

Matt_S

: Slightly scummy. Wants random bandwagons that get people nowhere near lynch (what good does that do?). Strangely defensive of Erg0. Seems to want to stay under the radar.

Oman

: Leaning town. Seems to be trying to generate discussion. Looking for connections.

opie

: Clearly scum. I forget why. Oh yeah, his argument on Guardian makes no sense.

pickemgenius

: Slightly scummy. Posts are not helpful.

TrustGossip

: Slightly scummy. Posts are not helpful.

[Xylthixlm]

Adel, that doesn't answer the question. You gave numbers for 'scum correctly identified', 'scum misidentified as town', and 'town misidentified as scum'. Those numbers are absolutely useless unless you also give the number for 'town correctly identified'.

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl: Of course I'm not helpful. For example I'm

horrible

at pointing out inconsistencies in your posts.

Considering that you haven't pointed out any inconsistencies in my posts, I have to agree.

[Xylthixlm]

Does TrustGossip always play like this?

[Xylthixlm]

game 1: 2 scum identified, 1 townie identified as scum, 8 other players left other than myself

game 2: 0 scum identified, 3 townies identified as scum, 8 other players left other than myself

game 3: 1 scum identified, 0 townie identified as scum, 4 other players left other than myself

Of players your algorithm identified as scum, 3/7 were scum, or 43%.
Of players your algorithm identified as town, 4/13 were scum, or 31%.

I'm less than astonished.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled game of mafia.

[Xylthixlm]

I only whip out the bitch claws when someone is severely retarded.

Why are you so upset about being rated "slightly scummy"?

=======================================

Votecount #7

Oman - 2 (Erg0, Jitsu)

pickemgenius - 2 (TrustGossip, Incognito)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Matt_S)
Erg0 - 2 (Guardian, Oman)
opie - 2 (Adel, Xylthixlm)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)
Matt_S - 1 (ChaosOmega)

Not voting - 0 (nobody)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl: Of course I'm not helpful. For example I'm

horrible

at pointing out inconsistencies in your posts.

Oh wait, that's what I've succeeded the most at for this game.

TrustGossip pointed out one post where I made an error (I misread a votecount). I fail to see any other instances, but perhaps TrustGossip would be so kind to point out any I've missed.

If that is the only instance, and if pointing out my inconsistencies is in fact "what he's succeeded the most at for this game", that implies that he hasn't succeeded at

anything else

for the game.

I rest my case.

[Xylthixlm]

I wish things could be more civil here. I'm seeing some insults coming from some people, which I just dislike.

FoS opie

, mainly because he seems to be under the most attack and I'm seeing the most arguments against him.

This makes no sense.

FoS Xylthixlm

, seems to be giving a lot of criticism and doesn't seem to be arguing against the major points.

This makes no sense.

FoS Oman

, for trying to throw suspicion on Guardian for following him, who did FoS before Oman's vote.

This one makes sense, but I disagree with the FoS.

[Xylthixlm]

opie's post 184 seems like a fairly townish reaction. It's enough to abate my suspicion for now.

unvote opie

TrustGossip's violent response to an accusation of lurking tells me that he doesn't like attention.

vote TrustGossip

[Xylthixlm]

2. You're arguing against Adel's scum catching which look really impressive to me. Having about half of your suspects on day 1 being scum is good. And I should probably say that the criticism I'm talking about is against points that they haven't made.

Adel's algorithm got the scum right 43% of the time. If he had picked the scum

totally at random

he would have been right 35% of the time. The difference between those two numbers is not enough to impress me with his awesomeness.

[Xylthixlm]

Except picking at random would produce a lot of townies as well, while Adel's method picks them almost 50:50.

Either you are not reading, or you have trouble with basic math. Picking at random would have produced 65% townies. Adel's method produced 57% townies. There is a difference, but it isn't large.

[Xylthixlm]

You fail. 43% isn't an accurate number, but I was willing to let it pass the first time. Now you are throwing out 35%, which is another inaccurate number. Either drop the subject or get schooled in a most embarrassing way. Before you go back and check your addition and division here is a hint: you are doing it wrong.

This is a ridiculous distraction from the game, but I can't resist my curiosity. What error do you think I have made?

[Xylthixlm]

1. I've seen strong opinions against him, hence I'm going to reread tomorrow and see if it's well grounded. For now I'll have to go with everyone else's arguments. If everybody else was getting as much attention as him I probably wouldn't FoS him.

This is, quite possibly,

the

most stupid reason for a FoS I have ever seen. If that's a distancing attempt, it's badly done. If it's an attempt to look protown, it's badly done. If it's an attempt to find scum, it's

very

badly done.

In other words, I agree with Adel and Guardian.

[Xylthixlm]

Incognito, why should Guardian have questioned me on my post?

[Xylthixlm]

Also, Incognito -- why wait until I answered? How could I have answered the question you asked differently and not have been found suspicious by you?

If you knew what answer wouldn't be viewed as suspicious, would you have given that one?

[Xylthixlm]

Matt_S's FoS on opie is really bugging me. It's so transparently opportunistic, it's almost too obvious for him to be scum. His FoS on me doesn't make sense to me either - I'm being too critical, but not arguing enough? I don't see his point.

Matt_S, do you agree with the arguments against opie? Why or why not? Why did you put an FoS on him

before

you read to see if the arguments are well grounded?

[Xylthixlm]

To be honest, Matt_S's posts are making my brain melt when I try to read them. I'll see if I can dredge out any bits that make enough sense to talk about.

Let's see... he accuses me of "accusing others of OMGUS to avoid attacking their points". That must be about my response to TrustGossip. The only arguable point TrustGossip made was about the inconsistency of my posts, and I responded to that. I have to conclude that Matt_S didn't bother checking his facts.

The rest of Matt_S's argument, as far as I can tell, is that arguing about Abel's numbers is scummy and distracting. I'll admit to it being distracting, but Matt_S is the one who first made it an issue!

I'm unlikely to reply to any further responses from Matt_S unless they contain (a) good arguments and (b) sentence structure that doesn't make my brain try to flee through my ears.

[Xylthixlm]

EBWOP:

unvote TrustGossip, vote Matt_S

[Xylthixlm]

It seems I am using completely different scumtells from Erg0. I've had too much exposure to IRC, the scum there don't have time to think.

[Xylthixlm]

I just want to say...

TrustGossip - I laughed when he voted Xyl and nobody followed him. His comment about Adel in 117, followed by his vote for Xyl in 119, make me think that TG believed Adel was setting a trap for someone to follow her in with a "too townie" argument, so he was trying to get town points by jumping on Xyl first. Nobody else followed, and he just kind of dropped it quietly and then unvoted 80-odd posts later. Later sniping could be distancing, too. IGMEOY.

Aha!

I was wondering what TrustGossip was smoking to lead to post 119. That explains a lot.

[Xylthixlm]

Getting town points and pointing things out and getting frustrated with lack of acknowledgement are two different things. I got snipy at Xyl because it took him about five posts to actually figure out what he did wrong. In addition I don't really know what he's doing trying to be so overeager to analyse other people's numbers that he gets them wrong in his analysis.

I'm sorry. When I saw

LOL TOO TOWNIE ROFL

I thought you meant

GIBBERISH IN ALL CAPS ROFL

rather than

Xylthixlm just made a "too townie" argument.

I'll try to work on my reading comprehension in the future.

[Xylthixlm]

I have this weird feeling that Adel and pickemgenius are in some sort of mind-meld.

[Xylthixlm]

At this point I support a lynch of either Matt_S (for horrible, awful logic and general unhelpfulness) or TrustGossip (for weak logic, overdefensiveness, and deliberate lurking). I think I see what Adel and pickemgenius have on opie and Incognito, but the case seems weak. I prefer not to draw connections until we have some alignment info.

Adel, of your three suspects, why do you want to lynch opie today?

[Xylthixlm]

I'm getting a strong townie read off Erg0.

Me too.

[Xylthixlm]

Xylthixlm: What exactly is bad about my logic?

Well, before I can explain that, I'd have to

understand

your logic. And I'm afraid my mind doesn't bend that far.

Instead, how about you explain your logic better, and then I'll tell you why it's wrong.

[Xylthixlm]

you should be reading Guardians response to Incognito please.

Pros: Guardian isn't being overdefensive. He doesn't use crap arguments to derail the case on him.

Cons: He is doing it deliberately, rather than naturally (which makes it less of a town tell). He seems to be paying attention to how many people suspect him.

Overall I'd say that post is solidly neutral on the tell-o'-meter.

=======================================

Votecount #12

opie - 4 (Adel, Oman, Guardian, ChaosOmega)

Guardian - 2 (opie, Incognito)
Oman - 1 (Jitsu)
Xyltixlm - 1 (Matt_S)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)
Jitsu - 1 (Erg0)
Matt_S - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 1 (TrustGossip)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

[Xylthixlm]

pickemgenius: Is TrustGossip scum?

[Xylthixlm]

He had the most. He's in the top 3 on my list. I don't know if I'd rank him the most suspicious, but he's definitely close. A lot of his posts seem really...passive. I guess that's the best word. Like he's just trying to smooth things over. It could just be that he happens to be under the most heat and he's being defensive because of it, but he was posting like that before he got the wagon going on him.

As for other people I'm suspicious of, the top 3 would also include Xylthixlm and Incognito.

You forgot to provide your reasoning.

[Xylthixlm]

I take it that my case on Jitsu hasn't set anyone's world on fire? Comments would be nice.

I don't see Jitsu's reaction as scummy.

But if you wanted to set my world on fire, you could vote Matt_S or TrustGossip.

[Xylthixlm]

You forgot to provide your reasoning.

I didn't forget. I'm just not going to follow up on it too much yet. Besides, there's more of day 1 for me to watch your actions without me saying what actions of yours I'm watching.

I hope I'm not the only person who finds this scummy.

[Xylthixlm]

@Xylthixlm: What specifically about Opie's post 184 gave you a townie reaction on him?

Post 184

He addressed all the suspicion I had on him without cracking or getting frustrated from the pressure. He didn't get so caught up in his own defense that he stopped looking at other people.

@Adel: Can you explain why you think Matt_S's probability of being scum is dependant on Opie being scum?

It has something to do with "distancing", which if I understand correctly is a mechanism where scum leave deliberate breadcrumbs about who their scumbuddies are. I don't understand why scum on this site are so kind, but I'll take any gifts they want to give us

[Xylthixlm]

er, distancing is where two scumbuddies call each other scummy so that when one is discovered to be scum the other looks more townie. It is similar to bussing, just without the lynch.

From my experience on this site so far, when a scum dies, anyone who he or she called scummy but didn't try to lynch is the

first

to attract attention as a possible scumbuddy.

[Xylthixlm]

Jitsu, because the game was just beginning, and picking something to find suspicious is often a really great starting point. Finding his joking suspicious was

arbitrary

, as I said.

What do you mean by "arbitrary"?

[Xylthixlm]

Matt_S is so clever that he noticed the trap and fell for it anyways.

[Xylthixlm]

Patrick, why do you prefer a Jitsu lynch to a Matt_S lynch? Your case on Matt_S seems stronger.

[Xylthixlm]

With regard to Post 340, why do you want to discuss the definition of arbitrary again?!

Guardian was one of the people who thought "arbitrary" meant "random". He then went on to use the word himself to not mean "random". I find that incredibly amusing.

I don't have enough time to analyze the thread right now. I'll get to it later if I'm not too tired, but it might have to wait for the weekend.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm here, just much busier than I used to be. (It turns out that being gainfully employed takes more time than being a college student, especially with an hour commute each way.)

Guardian reads mildly protown to me. opie, not so much - his signal to noise ratio is too low. Since we're close to deadline, the chance of starting a completely new bandwagon is nil, and nobody else sees what I do about Matt_S,

unvote Matt_S, vote opie

[Xylthixlm]

Guardian reads mildly protown to me. opie, not so much - his signal to noise ratio is too low.

Since I've generally thought of you as town, I'm interested in your opinions. I'm wondering why Guardian is reading pro-town to you -- the last I remember he was coming up neutral to you. Also, is there any other reason (besides signal-to-noise ratio) why Opie is reading less town to you?

Guardian's recent posts seem to be moving the game forward - he gives opinions, looks for scummy people, and picks out significant points of other people's posts. This post and this post both give me a good feeling about him. I think he's more likely than average to be town.

As for opie, I can't figure out what his opinions are from a casual read. He types a lot that looks important, but by the time I get to the end of the paragraph I'm not sure what his point was. That makes me nervous.

[Xylthixlm]

Tum te tum.

Xyl: Can you please explain your vote on opie a little more? The last time you mentioned him you didn't seem to find him particularly suspicious, so your recent vote looks pretty wagonny.

It is wagonny. I'm trying to deflect the lynch away from Guardian, who I think is more pro-town.

[Xylthixlm]

Erg0, your list is missing Matt_S.

[Xylthixlm]

btw, pickemgenius is obv scum.

[Xylthixlm]

PEG is scum because he's active lurking. I'm telling you about it now.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't have meta experience with anyone here.

[Xylthixlm]

Patrick, if I wanted to be rushing pickem I would be rushing pickem.

[Xylthixlm]

Oman, why is Erg0 linked to Matt_S?

[Xylthixlm]

I've heard better theories.

[Xylthixlm]

I badly need to go back through the thread and take notes.

[Xylthixlm]

Not significantly less suspicious but certainly less suspicious. I feel like Adel's case and the subsequent opie-wagon spurred off of your backhanded response to opie's/Jitsu's case against you from way earlier in the game. Your response was too slippery to fall into the realm of busing, in my eyes.

All this talk of who might be bussing who on day 1 makes my eyes glaze over. It's interesting to speculate on, but without any alignment info it's essentially shooting in the dark.

Right now, between Guardian and opie, I have a pretty good feeling on Guardian and a neutral to scummy read on opie. I'm going to stay on the opie wagon because it's the only way to keep Guardian from being deadline lynched.

I just did a review of Matt_S's recent posts, and it appears he hasn't done anything scummy in the last wee- er, the last couple d- well, in his last two posts. I'm oddly disappointed.

[Xylthixlm]

@Xylthixlm:

You mentioned that you're voting for opie as opposed to Guardian because you think he's scummier and is therefore the better wagon. Your additional point against opie was that his sig:noise ratio was too low. What do you think of ChaosOmega? Why is he not a better lynch than opie?

Lynching ChaosOmega will provide almost no information about any other players, because he has barely interacted with anyone. While I'm usually up for a lurker wagon, 2 days from deadline is cutting it a bit close, especially since I doubt CO's wagon will pass Guardian's...

[Xylthixlm]

You forgot to provide your reasoning.

I didn't forget. I'm just not going to follow up on it too much yet. Besides, there's more of day 1 for me to watch your actions without me saying what actions of yours I'm watching.

Also, you only have 1 vote. Even if I provided a fantastic case, I doubt I could pull enough votes to you to cause a lynch. The plurality is focused on opie, and I think it's a good place to look at the moment, as I haven't liked the tone of his posts. I'll follow up with my suspicions of you once more things clear up.

I'm waiting.

[Xylthixlm]

For all you've posted, so much of it is just useless bullshit. You've posted enough to not be labeled a lurker, but all you've done is go after Matt_S and switch over to opie near deadline to make sure he's lynched. However, I'm not sure what to make of this, because I find all 3 of you suspicious. I didn't like the way you switched over, either. You just went, "Oh, we're close to deadline, let me make sure opie gets lynched." It just looks like bussing to me.

Correction: "Oh, we're close to deadline, let me make sure Guardian doesn't get lynched."

As for the rest, I encourage everyone to look at my post record and see if they agree with ChaosOmega.

[Xylthixlm]

... No. I'm saying that *I* am staying on the opie wagon to keep Guardian from being lynched.

[Xylthixlm]

Incognito, you should use [wifom] tags for clarity.

[Xylthixlm]

Like this:

I don't see the obsession that you (ChaosOmega) and Adel have to link me with Guardian. I'd hate to get WIFOMy but think about it logically: Guardian was probably one of the least suspicious people at the time that I brought up my massive case against him (Jitsu backed his suspicions down against Guardian and opie was receiving much more attention).

[WIFOM]

Would it make sense for me to suddenly renew suspicions against Guardian if he and I were scum with one another? And I shouldn't just say renew - my case against Guardian was far more elaborate than the initial case raised by both opie and Jitsu. As Killah Nine would say: ah wanted dat Guardian nigga dead.

[/WIFOM]

[Xylthixlm]

When you make judgements about how someone else would play as scum, that's scumhunting. When you make judgements about how

you yourself

would play as scum, that's WIFOM.

======================================================

Votecount #27

opie - 6 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Xylthixlm, Guardian, Adel)

ChaosOmega - 4 (Patrick, Erg0, Matt_S, Incognito)
Guardian - 3 (opie, Jitsu)

Not voting - 0 (

nobody

)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
================================================

[Xylthixlm]

Correction: "Oh, we're close to deadline, let me make sure Guardian doesn't get lynched."

Correction: "Oh, we're close to deadline, let me make sure my scumbuddy doesnt get lynched."

So you think Guardian is scummy? It's hard to tell, what with you not saying anything all day.

[Xylthixlm]

^ that's not the post of scum. That's the post of a townie being taken advantage of.

I agree.

unvote opie, vote ChaosOmega

[Xylthixlm]

What Patrick and Incognito said.

[Xylthixlm]

Even I can figure out that ChaosOmega is probably scum here.

I say we wait for everyone to check in, then lynch him.

[Xylthixlm]

People who were on the opie wagon at some time during day 1 (skipping the first 5 votecounts, green=town, bold=vote at lynch):

Adel

, Xylthixlm,

Oman

,

Guardian

,

ChaosOmega

,

pickemgenius

People who were on the Guardian wagon at some time during day 1:

opie

, Matt_S,

Incognito

, Adel,

Jitsu

People who were on the ChaosOmega wagon at some time during day 1:
Patrick, Erg0,

Matt_S

, Incognito,

Xylthixlm

,

Guardian

So Adel was on both townie wagons, despite strongly (and randomly?) bandwagoning opie. Adel's first vote on Guardian, and explanation, is rather brief:

unvote, vote Guardian

call it a pre-emptive OMGUS vote. You should've supported the opie wagon, now I'm going to get you.

Adel proceeds to flip back and forth between opie and Guardian (and at one point Matt_S).

I also notice that Adel didn't say anything at all about ChaosOmega day 1.

FoS: Adel

[Xylthixlm]

Tracker + watcher is already a pretty powerful combination. I'd be surprised if the scum don't have a roleblocker. And if the scum have a roleblocker, they would be idiots not to block ChaosOmega... which makes his result even less believable.

[Xylthixlm]

Adel, let me get you straight. You picked a random player day 1, and bandwagoned him to lynch without ever wondering whether or not he was actually scum. And you expect us to be happy about this?

[Xylthixlm]

There is amost always a differe3nce between what I am thinking and what I am typing.

Yeah, I don't think we should be letting slide players who habitually mislead the town.

[Xylthixlm]

@Oman, Xylthixlm, ChaosOmega: Adel alleges that the Opie wagon was random and designed to draw out scum. What are your responses to this?

It doesn't exactly make it easier to analyze the game than a natural bandwagon would. As gambits go, pretty lousy. If the wagon was just to attract scum, why were Guardian and pickemgenius both on it?

@Xylthixlm: When did you start to think that Opie might actually be town? Was it really not until post 682? What about that post convinced you that Opie was a townie being taken advantage of?

I was never convinced opie was scum. My vote was primarily to avoid a Guardian lynch, since I thought he was more likely to be town than opie.

Post 682 did push opie from neutral-scummy to neutral-town in my mind. A scum in that position would be unlikely to point out that his absence was notable. Overall, he just doesn't seem as panicked as I expect a scum about to be lynched to be. He didn't really have any reason to expect not to be lynched, so his post was likely to reflect his true feelings.

Also, at that point I could safely get off the opie wagon without risking a Guardian lynch, so I moved to ChaosOmega.

[Xylthixlm]

So Adel, is the Oman wagon another gambit?

[Xylthixlm]

For some reason, when I made post 652 I was thinking that Guardian had more votes than ChaosOmega. I probably hadn't read the whole thread before replying.

[Xylthixlm]

Adel is saying that "I want to draw the scum kill" was WIFOM.

[Xylthixlm]

Adel, who do you think is most likely to be ChaosOmega's scumbuddy?

[Xylthixlm]

I think the fact that Adel is gunning for Oman is a point in Oman's favor.

[Xylthixlm]

I haven't noticed anything particularly scummy about Oman. The only point against him seems to be that he followed Adel's wagon on opie, but so did Guardian and pickemgenius, which suggests that Adel may have done at least as good a job attracting townies as he did attracting scum.

I'm leaning towards Adel being scum - his explanation for the opie wagon sounds like an excuse rather than a reason. If he really thought that the best day 1 play is to lynch randomly, then he wouldn't have vote hopped to Guardian and back.

[Xylthixlm]

Anyone without a gender icon under their avatar gets whatever pronoun I feel like calling them.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm leaning towards Adel being scum - his explanation for the opie wagon sounds like an excuse rather than a reason. If he really thought that the best day 1 play is to lynch randomly, then he wouldn't have vote hopped to Guardian and back.

I don't think you have any real understanding of my playstyle.

Don't make me drag out "lynch all liars".

[Xylthixlm]

Adel, why would a lynch revealing CO to be scum make it harder for Oman to "slip away"?

[Xylthixlm]

The question is not whether someone does something as both town and scum. The question is whether someone does something

equally often

as town and scum.

Barring evidence that Adel does, in fact, do the same number of stupid gambits in every game regardless of alignment, I think I'm entirely justified in taking stupid gambits as scumtells.

[Xylthixlm]

Barring evidence that Adel does, in fact, do the same number of stupid gambits in every game regardless of alignment, I think I'm entirely justified in taking stupid gambits as scumtells.

Actually for Adel they're towntells, but I might not have read the games where she gambits that way as scum.

So Adel lies more often as town? Very interesting, if true.

[Xylthixlm]

I missed something. Why are we considering the possibility that ChaosOmega is a SK?

[Xylthixlm]

Guardian is a saint for replacing ChaosOmega at this point.

I too want to hear what he has to say. Given how much trouble ChaosOmega was in, it ought to be interesting.

QFT

[Xylthixlm]

I will vote for whoever Guardian votes for as long as it's Adel.

======================================================

Votecount #37

ChaosOmega - 2 (Erg0, Oman)

Oman - 1 (Incognito)

Not voting - 6 (Matt_S, ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu, Adel)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Xylthixlm]

Did you know that I've claimed scum as town before?

I can't imagine a situation where that isn't a violation of the "Play to win the game" rule.

[Xylthixlm]

"Dislike" is the wrong word. But to answer the question, I think that Adel is more likely to be scum than anyone other than ChaosOmega/Guardian (not policy), and I don't accept metagame defenses that allow people to get away with always being scummy (policy).

[Xylthixlm]

I'm more annoyed at the rest of the town for letting her get away with such a BS defense. But you're right, I dislike her play.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh come on. First Adel says opie is scum (262, 374). Then she backtracks day 2 and says that she picked opie randomly because a random lynch is better than letting the town choose a lynch (756, 783). However, if that's true, then her vote hopping day 1 makes no sense! So the only explanation is that she's lying

again

, but people are letting her slide on it because she lies as town. How many times are you going to let her get away with saying "I didn't really mean that"? Most players wouldn't even get away with it

once

.

[Xylthixlm]

Is that a serious vote, or are you trying to generate reactions again?

[Xylthixlm]

Let me put this another way.

Adel, do you agree that if you later say your vote on Matt_S was not serious, we should lynch you?

[Xylthixlm]

Erg0, what do you think of Oman? I noticed that he said you have a good read on him.

[Xylthixlm]

Adel, do you agree that if you later say your vote on Matt_S was not serious, we should lynch you?

unless he is mafia and Guardian really is a Sk, then

yes

. In my opinion it is a sincere vote.

damn double negatives.. the meaning got lost.

I think tht only Guardian and Oman should be the lynch for today

.

However, now they're the only ones you want to lynch? That also seems odd, so I want an explanation first. Why did you change your mind?

I didn't

. Lynching Oman is a just a much higher priority than lynching Guardian to me based on my assessment of player's scummyness, but I also know that Guardian can nail scum easily, and it is conceivable that he is really a non-sane cop.

Adel hasn't changed her mind -> Adel didn't think Matt_S should be the lynch when she voted him -> Her vote on Matt_S was not serious -> Adel agrees that we should lynch her.

Vote Adel

======================================================

Votecount #40

Guardian - 2 (Erg0, Oman)

Matt_S - 2 (Guardian, Adel)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Adel - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 3 (Matt_S, Patrick, Jitsu, )

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Xylthixlm]

scum often see me as being an easy lynch.

After you're lynched we'll look to see who was bussing you.

[Xylthixlm]

Translation: "I don't play IRC but I'll make up some intelligent-sounding bullshit anyways. OMGUS"

[Xylthixlm]

In a way, this is hilarious. Especially the bit about "coherent points".

[Xylthixlm]

I'm going to push for the Adel lynch first because I feel like she could easily slip away following a Guardian^2 lynch regardless of how it turned out.

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl, you've been very focused on Adel and not commented on much of anything else, and that troubles me because I've seen myself and others do the exact same thing as scum before. Of me, Oman, Matt_S, who do you find most suspicious and why?

You, because I don't believe your claim and ChaosOmega was like 110% scummy. I looked at Matt_S because I was suspicious of him day 1, but I haven't seen anything odd in his recent play, so he's not on my list right now. I'm reserving judgement on Oman.

[Xylthixlm]

I find the non-sane cop to be a more likely role than SK. That cop ma kill his investigative target, or we may have a vig. I don't think we have a SK.

So what you're saying is that you're the SK?

[Xylthixlm]

Guardian, the blatant attempt to get anyone but yourself lynched isn't helping your case.

======================================================

Votecount #43

Guardian - 2 (Erg0, Matt_S)

Matt_S - 2 (Guardian, Adel)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Adel - 1 (Xylthixlm)
Xylthixlm - 1 (Oman)

Not voting - 2 (Patrick, Jitsu, )

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Xylthixlm]

Guardian^2 is mafia and Adel is a serial killer.

[Xylthixlm]

Which means I should be voting Guardian instead of Adel. Damnit. Someone convince me I have it backwards...

Unvote Adel, vote Guardian

======================================================

Votecount #44

Guardian - 3 (Erg0, Matt_S, Xylthixlm)

Adel - 1 (Guardian)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Xylthixlm - 1 (Oman)

Not voting - 3 (Patrick, Jitsu, Adel)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Xylthixlm]

That's an interesting way of convincing me I have it backwards.

unvote

for now

[Xylthixlm]

Incognito, try harder.

======================================================

Votecount #45

Guardian - 3 (Erg0, Matt_S, Oman)

Adel - 1 (Guardian)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)

Not voting - 4 (Patrick, Jitsu, Adel, Xylthixlm)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Xylthixlm]

Incognito, try harder.

Explain?

Guardian has claimed SK, yet you are attacking him for not being sincerely protown before the claim.

[Xylthixlm]

Xylthixlm, what's your take on Guardian? Who's the play?

If we're at 5 town, 3 mafia, 1 SK, we need to lynch mafia today. Full stop. Lynching the SK is not an option with any chance of winning.

I was pretty well convinced that Adel was an SK, and Guardian^2 mafia. Guardian's SK claim blows that theory out of the water. If Guardian is mafia, claiming SK is an

extremely

gutsy move; his claim would be flattened if someone else claimed the Guardian^1 kill. I'm inclined to think he's telling the truth.

That leaves the question of who the mafia are. I still think Adel is the highest-probability play. I think Oman is another possibility - with Adel's erratic play, she could easily be bussing her scumbuddy. I'm really not sure about the third.

I'll reread when I have a chance.

[Xylthixlm]

This complicated analysis is stupid.

If it is 5-3-1, and we lynch Guardian, then it is 4-3 tomorrow. That means three consecutive days of LyLo. The chances of winning that are miniscule. On the other hand, if we don't lynch Guardian, we have a better chance - even though it isn't entirely under our control.

[Xylthixlm]

We lynch Guardian -> 4-3-0, almost certain loss
We don't lynch Guardian
..We lynch town
....Mafia shoots Guardian, Guardian shoots
......Guardian shoots mafia -> 4-2-0, bad but winnable
......Guardian shoots town -> 3-3-0, loss
....Mafia shoots Guardian, Guardian doesn't shoot -> 4-3-0, almost certain loss
....Mafia shoots town, Guardian shoots
......Guardian shoots mafia -> 3-2-1, bad but winnable
......Guardian shoots town -> 2-3-1, mafia wins
....Mafia shoots town, Guardian doesn't shoot -> 3-3-1, bad but winnable
..We lynch mafia
....Mafia shoots Guardian, Guardian shoots
......Guardian shoots mafia -> 5-1-0, probable win
......Guardian shoots town -> 4-2-0, bad but winnable
....Mafia shoots Guardian, Guardian doesn't shoot -> 5-2-0, possible win
....Mafia shoots town, Guardian shoots
......Guardian shoots mafia -> 4-1-1, probable win
......Guardian shoots town -> 3-2-1, bad but winnable
....Mafia shoots town, Guardian doesn't shoot -> 4-2-1, bad but winnable

Only one of the situations where we don't lynch Guardian are worse than if we lynched him - namely if we lynch town, Guardian shoots town, and mafia shoot Guardian. Every other possibility is at least as good as lynching Guardian, and some of them are actually decent chances at a win.

[Xylthixlm]

Xylthixlm: why did it take you so long to generate that?

I thought the play was so obvious it didn't need generating. Sometimes I forget that other people haven't run mathematical analyses on thousands of games.

[Xylthixlm]

By my count, 3 of Xyl's scenarios above are better than 4-3-0 LyLo, 3 are about the same, 4 are worse because Guardian lives, and 2 are an instant loss.

Wrong. Having an SK alive is much less of a disadvantage than having an extra mafia alive.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm ignoring it because it's idiotic. You're proposing that we throw the game on principle if you don't do as we say, which is just never going to happen.

Agreed. But we still shouldn't lynch Guardian.

Also, there's no reason to believe or disbelieve Guardian's statement about being NK immune. He has no reason to tell the truth there.

[Xylthixlm]

This is flawed logic, which could actually be bordering on a slip from you.

Why are you ignoring the possibility that the Guardian1 kill was performed by the mafia

and that Guardian2 is mafia?

Thanks for raising this issue and hammering in the same post. I actually addressed this in my post, then realized the explanation didn't add anything but wordiness and deleted it. If Guardian1 was the mafia kill, then someone claiming the pickemgenius kill would have logically meant that Guardian1 was the mafia kill, which would have screwed Guardian2 just as much as if Guardian1 wasn't the mafia kill and someone else claimed it.

Since it turns out that Guardian2

was

mafia, that means that the second killer decided not to claim their kill (whichever one it was), which raises the chance that we do have an SK.

I'll do a targeted reread on Guardian to see if there's anything interesting about his play...

[Xylthixlm]

... and before you say, yes that does read horribly.

That's why I deleted it the first time.

[Xylthixlm]

If someone else claimed the Guardian1 kill, there were three possibilities: Either Guardian2 is lying, the other person is lying, or there are three killers (Guardian2, mafia, and the other person).

If someone else claimed the pickemgenius kill, there were three possibilities: Either Guardian2 is lying, the other person is lying, or there are three killers (Guardian2, mafia, and the other person).

Guardian2 is exactly the same amount of screwed either way.

[Xylthixlm]

Day 1:

opie

- 5 (Oman,

ChaosOmega

,

pickemgenius

,

Adel

,

Guardian^1

)
Day 2:

Guardian^2

- 5 (Erg0, Oman, Incognito,

Adel

, Patrick)

Does anyone else find it odd that almost everyone on the D1 lynch is now dead?

[Xylthixlm]

I don't usually expect scum to kill the scummy people.

[Xylthixlm]

If Oman is scum, the scum would be dumb to kill the townies he could hide behind. Although I can sort of see why he'd want to kill Adel.

If Oman isn't scum, it seems most likely that a vig killed Adel and the scum kill was blocked.

[Xylthixlm]

Before I respond to that... what do you think my position is on Oman?

[Xylthixlm]

So why aren't you voting Oman?

[Xylthixlm]

But your argument for me being scum is that Oman is my scumbuddy and I'm defending him. In other words, "the other way".

[Xylthixlm]

Also, why did you ignore the possibility that Guardian was mafia trying to draw out the real killer (even after people brought it up)?

I thought I had said something about that, but I looked through my posts for a quote and apparently I didn't. Odd.

A vig claiming the pickem kill would have meant Guardian2 was screwed, since the mafia kill would then be unaccounted for, and logically it would be the Guardian1 kill - which would mean Guardian2 was claiming the mafia kill, which would get him lynched just as surely as him claiming the vig kill would. I'm really not sure why you're not getting this logic.

[Xylthixlm]

We are actually in much the same situation as yesterday. If we want to stay in control of our destiny, we need to lynch the SK (presuming there is one).

This reasoning is as bad today as it was yesterday. We need to lynch mafia, whether or not there is a SK.

[Xylthixlm]

However, I can't see Xylthixlm being town after that WIFOM defense of Oman.

Like I said earlier:

When you make judgements about how someone else would play as scum, that's scumhunting. When you make judgements about how

you yourself

would play as scum, that's WIFOM.

[Xylthixlm]

So apparently when I try to use logic and actually analyze the game, everyone's confirmation bias kicks in. I might as well just be oracular.

Oman is scum. I'm dithering between Incognito or Patrick for the other.

That is all.

[Xylthixlm]

This still wouldn't screw him in this situation. The mafia kill could easily have failed somehow. He would still claim that he killed Guardian1 as an SK, and that the mafia kill was blocked or bounced (maybe on ChaosOmega for example, since he did claim unightkillable).

Pretty much the same excuses would apply if someone else claimed the Guardian1 kill, although you're right about the kill immunity part. (I was discounting it as WIFOM, so it didn't occur to me that it could be used to explain a missing kill.)

For the record, if you're legit, you've played a poor game so far.

Graduating college and getting a real job, plus 2 hours of commuting every day, has cut down on the attention I can pay to mafiascum.

You forgot to provide your reasoning.

Gut. That's why it's being oracular.

[Xylthixlm]

Incognito voted ChaosOmega early in day 2, when it looked like he might be quicklynched. Then he unvoted and switched to Oman, and kept that even though his case on ChaosOmega seemed to be stronger. But that doesn't quite fit if he's Oman's scumbuddy.

I'm not sure what to make of his vote on Adel after the replacement and then his sudden switch to Guardian^2. It could be that he was looking for someone to lynch other than one of his scumbuddies, and grabbed the Adel wagon - but I don't like that theory much either.

I hate it when I can't remember the whole game to form theories, and I don't have time to do lots of rereading.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm more concerned about why Jitsu wants to lynch the SK (if there is one) before mafia. Last time I ran analysis on the IRC bot's game logs (over 2000 games), the result was that a two-person scumteam is about four times as dangerous as a SK.

[Xylthixlm]

Oman, I'm not seeing what you're seeing. What are you seeing?

[Xylthixlm]

1) If Guardian1 was the mafia kill and if Xylthixlm is mafia, then Xylthixlm would have known that nobody else would have claimed the killing of Guardian1 because that kill was performed by the mafia. Therefore it seems like Xylthixlm may have been using this logic as a last ditch attempt to save a scum buddy.

2) If Guardian1 was an SK/vig kill and Xylthixlm is mafia, then Xylthixlm would have known that the mafia targeted pickemgenius, and he also would have known that his scum buddy Guardian was making an extremely risky move by claiming to kill the person that

wasn't

targeted by the mafia.

It was an extremely gutsy move either way, as I've been trying to explain. I have no information about who the mafia actually killed.

My experience is that scum tend to avoid extremely gutsy moves. I didn't put enough weight on the fact that Guardian^2 was the probable lynch for the day, so he wasn't really risking very much.

[Xylthixlm]

And because a triple post is cool, I have an issue that I've been pondering.

We only had one kill last night while on night 1 we had two kills. We've contemplated the possibility of there being an SK, a vig, a one-shot vig, and I think Adel even suggested a Quack Doctor. If one of the kills during Night 1 was performed by a one-shot vig, does anyone think that the one-shot vig should role claim now? My reasoning is the one-shot vig would essentially be a vanilla townie now since he's used up his one shot and it might help us to figure out the set-up and our current situation further if he claimed.

We're at 7 players, iirc. That's around the point where the benefit of claiming a confirmable role (especially one with no more power) outweighs the risk of outing it to the scum.

[Xylthixlm]

I support a mass claim.

Jitsu: Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two scumteams of two people each, or a single scumteam of four?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: a scumteam of two plus a SK, or a single scumteam of three?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two SKs, or a single scumteam of two?

[Xylthixlm]

These are kind of odd questions. Are you asking specifically about this game or in general terms?

Whichever you want to answer.

[Xylthixlm]

Extra mafia kills are pretty rare. They have been done before, though. IIRC the last invitational had a mafia that had 2 kills the first night plus the ability to choose the flavor of their kills.

Incognito is now striking me as town. Something about Jitsu's play is nagging me, so I'm waiting for his answer to my questions.

I need to do a reread on Erg0 and Matt_S in my copious free time.

[Xylthixlm]

To throw a bit more fuel on the kill flavor speculation, the death in the opening post is by strangulation.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh well. I was really hoping to avoid having to claim, since I doubt anyone will believe it at this point. I'm not sure

I

believe it.

I am a nurse

. The wording on my PM does not guarantee that there is a doctor in the game. Based on the roles revealed so far, I think it's probable there isn't; vollkan wouldn't unbalance the game by putting in a watcher

and

a doctor. So I'm probably no more useful than a vanilla townie, unless there actually is a doc.

If Patrick is telling the truth, then a mafia roleblocker is the most likely explanation for my survival. I don't think a doc would have bothered protecting me. I do find it odd that Patrick is claiming one shooting kill but not both. I hope vollkan explains the setup after the game. I'm leaning towards Patrick being at least partially truthful; we don't have any other explanation for the extra kill. A mafia roleblocker is fairly likely, given the presence of two good info roles.

If you guys want to lynch me, I probably deserve it; I'll to admit playing horribly this game. We shouldn't be at lynch or lose quite yet. I notice Oman just flip-flopped from calling me unconventional town to threatening to vote me. I heartily endorse vigging him. I don't really have a read on the remaining players, although I think there's some good info to be found in today's play.

I'm still a bit suspicious of Jitsu because he suggested going after the SK before the mafia. This is bad logic, and antitown, especially in a situtation where it wasn't even certain if there was an SK. Ratio (to use his terms) is by

far

the biggest factor. The increased number of nightkills is almost entirely balanced out by the presence of crosskills. Scumhunting effects don't matter in our case, because you have to find all the scum no matter what order you're lynching them. Endgame complexity is a red herring because the complex endgames are ones you would have

already lost

if there was a single scumgroup.

For the record, 2 SK games are a bit easier than 2 mafia games with 6-8 players.

[Xylthixlm]

I'd be interested to know the rationale behind the scum nightkills, and whether our little theory about Matt's day 3 vote on Xylthixlm being planned was correct.

Nope. The scum didn't plan anything.

[Xylthixlm]

I wasn't really that suspicious of your play when choosing on day 4, it was more just that there was no interaction with Xylthixlm that meant I could rule it out, and Xylthixlm pretty much shrugged you off all game, in a way you sometimes see scum ignoring their partners.

That was somewhat deliberate.

I eventually concluded Matt's interaction with Xylthixlm was even more scumlike, and it reminded me strongly of how I treated a less experienced scumbuddy last time I was scum.

I'm curious which of us you think was the more experienced one.

On night 3 I expected the game to end with some duel between me and Oman. I really thought his two obviously fakeclaims were just a humorous way of him giving up and saying that the town had won. I was stunned when I saw the day 4 scene, and for a few minutes I seriously wondered if vollkan was just playing an April Fool's joke on us. Oman just seemed to fit into the mafia group so perfectly; in retrospect, I suppose Xyl was trying to connect himself to Oman. It so, it worked.

It would have worked, too, if it weren't for you meddling vig!