Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Matt_S]

Vote Xylthixlm

for having an unpronounceable name.

[Matt_S]

Vote Xylthixlm

for having an unpronounceable name.

ZIL-thick-selm.

Vote Matt_S

for voting me for an untrue reason.

I see.

Unvote, Vote Xylthixlm

for having a weird avatar then.

And I (re)learned the capital of Australia today. Google saved me from getting dayvigged.

[Matt_S]

Xylthixlm, what Incognito and Jitsu said. I have nothing more to add really. I don't see how you can argue for arbitrary daykills over lynches.

And how'd the dayvig joke turn into a semiserious discussion?

[Matt_S]

I guess that's the end of that one.

[Matt_S]

I've had trouble seeing which votes were serious and which weren't. Until the last page I thought the Erg0 wagon was just joke votes, but Guardian seems serious about it. So in response to his request, I don't think the Erg0 wagon is good. You're voting him because he won't disclose if he can dayvig and for his joke posts. The only reason people want him to claim is because he made an obvious joke, and people are taking it too far. As for someone more deserving of votes, I think Guardian is really pushing it.

Unvote Xylthixlm, Vote Guardian

Erg0 talks about wanting someone to hang. You can either take him seriously or you can go with it being a joke. I don't see any reason to do the former at this moment. The fact that you find it suspicious really makes me curious, though. You seem to want Erg0 to die, so why shouldn't we find that suspicious?

While I find it a little odd for Erg0 to not confirm or deny a dayvigging ability, it's understandable to not want to claim an ability. It's always to his advantage to deny it, since claiming gets him nightkilled. However I don't see why he doesn't just deny it. Even if he can, it doesn't hurt the town to deny it. I don't consider that to fall under "lynch all liars".

I've interpreted Oman's posts as jokes, so I'm not going to vote or FoS yet. I am a little curious about the seemingly serious manner he fake daykilled in. For now, I'm just interpreting that as mixing serious comments and joke comments. From now on, all jokes must have smileys after them.

[Matt_S]

Guardian: You're voting someone for joking. I'm voting you because of that. You succeeded at starting a discussion, which seems to be your goal. Once there's a better vote, I'll unvote you, but for now it stays. You've been asking people to try and argue against the Erg0 bandwagon when I don't see a legitimate reason for there to even be a bandwagon.

[Matt_S]

Maybe it's just me, but I'm not finding Oman's bandwagoning helpful.

FoS Oman.

It's easy to say "I was trying to help", but I don't believe it right now.

=======================================

Votecount #4

Erg0 - 3 (Adel, Guardian, Oman)

Matt_S - 2 (ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm)
Oman - 2 (Erg0, Jitsu)
pickemgenius - 2 (TrustGossip, Incognito)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Matt_S)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)

Not voting - 0 (nobody)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

[Matt_S]

Maybe it's just me, but I'm not finding Oman's bandwagoning helpful.

FoS Oman.

It's easy to say "I was trying to help", but I don't believe it right now.

I was unaware of an Oman wagon, or there really being any wagon for that matter...it's not hard to keep track of this....ofcourse you could say 3 is a bandwagon... i modestly disagree with that.

I don't really like this post, it doesn't really say much.

Not a wagon on Oman. I mean Oman admittedly trying to wagon Erg0.

[Matt_S]

Maybe it's just me, but I'm not finding Oman's bandwagoning helpful.

FoS Oman.

It's easy to say "I was trying to help", but I don't believe it right now.

I was unaware of an Oman wagon, or there really being any wagon for that matter...it's not hard to keep track of this....ofcourse you could say 3 is a bandwagon... i modestly disagree with that.

I don't really like this post, it doesn't really say much.

Not a wagon on Oman. I mean Oman admittedly trying to wagon Erg0.

Is there a problem with Oman trying to start a wagon on Erg0?

There's not a problem per se, but he says the reason is to start discussion. There's much better ways to get a discussion going. His reason sounds to me like an excuse to justify the bandwagon.

[Matt_S]

Maybe it's just me, but I'm not finding Oman's bandwagoning helpful.

FoS Oman.

It's easy to say "I was trying to help", but I don't believe it right now.

I was unaware of an Oman wagon, or there really being any wagon for that matter...it's not hard to keep track of this....ofcourse you could say 3 is a bandwagon... i modestly disagree with that.

I don't really like this post, it doesn't really say much.

Not a wagon on Oman. I mean Oman admittedly trying to wagon Erg0.

Is there a problem with Oman trying to start a wagon on Erg0?

There's not a problem per se, but he says the reason is to start discussion. There's much better ways to get a discussion going. His reason sounds to me like an excuse to justify the bandwagon.

How else are you supposed to start convo, then with a good ol random BW?

As in bandwagoning a random person? I don't like that. Like you said, different people consider different things a bandwagon. I got the impression that Oman wanted the wagon on Erg0 to get bigger than the 3 votes it had, and I'm not comfortable with doing that just to get a random wagon going.

[Matt_S]

Mod: I unvoted Xylthixlm, but you have me as voting for Guardian and him.

-

Fixed, thanks.

[Matt_S]

But would you not agree that starting random wagons springboard discussion? L-3 L-2 even on an early random BW isn't all that bad.

Yeah, it gets lots of discussion, but I don't think trying to make a random bandwagon is the best way to do it. It certainly wouldn't be the first thing I'd try. Seems to be putting him in the spotlight more than Erg0, which I doubt was his intention.

As for opie, he does seem to be trying pretty hard, referencing all the posts and whatnot, but I don't think that's voteworthy by itself.

[Matt_S]

@Matt: If you don't support random bandwagons to promote discussion, what do you prefer instead?

Random votes that don't bring a person close to being lynched. In my eyes the bandwagoners get more negative attention than the person being bandwagoned. Or nice, logical arguments against someone. Bandwagoning is sometimes good, and random voting is alright, but I dislike a combination of the two.

Please link or quote where I said this. No, seriously. What you infer from my posts is not my fault.

Notice how I said infer. You wanted to bandwagon someone to make discussion, so I inferred that you wanted more people to vote Erg0 to get stuff going. I'm presenting my opinion, which is discussion.

I am hereby connecting Erg0 with Matt_S.

Unless I believe in the argument against a person, I defend them. You got people talking, which is exactly what you wanted, but that doesn't mean I believe in your methods.

[Matt_S]

And what would you base you preferred nice & logical arguments on in an absence of any behavior to analyze?

Why do you think getting negative attention is a bad thing for a player to do, even if more substancial attention is the result?

Is random bandwagoning really scummy enough to be worth a vote?

Who is more likely to randomly bandwagon a player, tow or scum?

1. If I didn't see anything to argue about yet, I'd just random vote. If I don't see anything scummy yet then I don't push anything.
2. Getting negative attention doesn't seem good to me. Of course I don't have much experience with this, so I can't really say. I can't think of a situation where I would want to risk getting lynched to do a random bandwagon.
3. My vote is for Guardian, who asked us to explain why we weren't voting Erg0 instead of the other way around. That's the part that got my vote, not just the bandwagoning.
4. Can't say since I haven't played any mafia games as intelligent as the ones on this site before. If I had to guess, which I'd rather not since it seems people know otherwise, I'd say mafia since their goal is to end the day quickly, which is aided by bandwagoning.

[Matt_S]

I wish things could be more civil here. I'm seeing some insults coming from some people, which I just dislike.

FoS opie

, mainly because he seems to be under the most attack and I'm seeing the most arguments against him.

FoS Xylthixlm

, seems to be giving a lot of criticism and doesn't seem to be arguing against the major points.

FoS Oman

, for trying to throw suspicion on Guardian for following him, who did FoS before Oman's vote.

For now though,

Unvote

. I'll have to reread this tomorrow to see if I can find what people are saying about opie's supposed scumtells and other things.

[Matt_S]

I wish things could be more civil here. I'm seeing some insults coming from some people, which I just dislike.

FoS opie

, mainly because he seems to be under the most attack and I'm seeing the most arguments against him.

This makes no sense.

FoS Xylthixlm

, seems to be giving a lot of criticism and doesn't seem to be arguing against the major points.

This makes no sense.

FoS Oman

, for trying to throw suspicion on Guardian for following him, who did FoS before Oman's vote.

This one makes sense, but I disagree with the FoS.

1. I've seen strong opinions against him, hence I'm going to reread tomorrow and see if it's well grounded. For now I'll have to go with everyone else's arguments. If everybody else was getting as much attention as him I probably wouldn't FoS him.
2. You're arguing against Adel's scum catching which look really impressive to me. Having about half of your suspects on day 1 being scum is good. And I should probably say that the criticism I'm talking about is against points that they haven't made.
3. He looks to me like he's trying to get people off him more than anything.

[Matt_S]

2. You're arguing against Adel's scum catching which look really impressive to me. Having about half of your suspects on day 1 being scum is good. And I should probably say that the criticism I'm talking about is against points that they haven't made.

Adel's algorithm got the scum right 43% of the time. If he had picked the scum

totally at random

he would have been right 35% of the time. The difference between those two numbers is not enough to impress me with his awesomeness.

Except picking at random would produce a lot of townies as well, while Adel's method picks them almost 50:50.

[Matt_S]

Xlythixlm: You seem to be arguing just for the sake of arguing, and you pull (incorrect) numbers into everything, plus accusing others of OMGUS to avoid attacking their points. And I FOSed opie because the things that were on my mind were the "trying too hard" argument and my inability to remember any important posts by him. I'll admit I haven't reread everything yet, and I didn't play to be away all weekend, but I wanted to express my opinion before being away for a while. However, I expected a little more to happen and for my absence to be more noticable.

Jitsu: Someone said that opie was trying too hard to scumhunt without being useful. My post was a comment on that. Yeah, I agreed he did seem to be trying hard, and he didn't seem to be doing much, but I didn't want to vote for him because of that.

Now is when I reread this topic. Another post soon hopefully.

[Matt_S]

So now opie and Matt_S are trying to get Guardian lynched.... fantastic.

I voted Guardian because I didn't like his bandwagoning. Since then, bigger things happened and I moved on, hence I unvoted him.

As for my suspicions, a quick look at opie's posts showed me he was one of the early people against Guardian, which was one of the big things.

UnFoS opie

since that goes against my "he wasn't useful" point. Everything else still fits with the "trying too hard" thing, but again that's not scummy enough for a vote.

UnFoS Oman

, since the thing with him trying to get votes on Guardian appears to be over. Yeah, he still did it but it looked just like a misunderstanding. That leaves Xylthixlm. He doesn't seem to have done anything to remove my suspicion since Friday, so

Vote Xylthixlm

.

As for the new case on Guardian, he said he wanted to create discussion, so I'd kind of understand why he'd tell everyone his suspicions. But Indigo makes good points on how much he questions Adel and borrows his logic on opie's case. However, this still goes in line with his point of making discussion. So for now, I'll wait until Guardian replies.

[Matt_S]

Xylthixlm: What exactly is bad about my logic?

Incognito: Guardian has been all about getting people to talk. Given that, I don't find it that odd that he'd agree with some of the already established suspicions. And looking back at one of my posts, I accidentally called you Indigo. Sorry >.>

Erg0: I didn't have solid suspicions since most of the original wagons were about whether someone was joking, or someone taking the jokes too seriously. I didn't want to base suspicions off jokes and seriousness. Right now I'm suspicious of Xylthixlm, who I'm voting for because he seems uncooperative, and Incognito, who's starting to seem more aggressive. But one thing about Incognito that doesn't seem suspicious to me is that he's taking on a new case against someone who everybody moved off of, so I don't know what to think of him.

[Matt_S]

and that is because the current meta is all over identifying distancing. In fact, it is only when newer players like Matt_S do it that alarms bells really ring for me.

Just because I'm a newb doesn't mean I suck.

[Matt_S]

I never said that you sucked. Are you saying that you are clever enough to

not

distance yourself from your partner?

I see what you did there. You're asking a yes or no question where both answers suggest I have a partner. So, to partially answer your question, I'm at least clever enough to notice that.

Just because I'm new doesn't mean that I do conspicuous things like distancing. Of course, I'm not familiar with all the meta stuff, but I've read enough to know that smart scum shouldn't openly treat their partners different from everyone else.

[Matt_S]

Patrick: I didn't like Xylthixlm's comments because it seemed he tried to destroy people's credibility without actually proving anything. Seemed to be trying to attract negative attention to other people without reason. As for Incognito, he and Guardian got uncooperative, and it seemed Incognito contributed more to the conflict. Probably just caused by anger, but stating that you won't answer a person's questions isn't constructive no matter what the reasons.

I don't really see Jitsu as scummy. He contributed quite a bit, and he asked lots of questions, which I like. People said he backed down after opie grew more unpopular. The way I see it, he made his points and moved on. Jitsu offers explanations for why he does things, and his explanations seem satisfactory, though a little complicated and hard to follow.

[Matt_S]

I'm seeing something a little odd.

I am now 100% certain

huge scumtell. 100% bullshit is more like it.

This is the sloppiest scum team I've

ever

seen.

How was what Incognito did any different than Adel saying he knows Guardian is town? Is it simply the fact that one is accusing and one is defending?

And it's even odder that you vote the person you "know" is town.

FOS Adel

[Matt_S]

Getting a strong town read off Adel.

Could you explain why you think this?

And shall I also quote Incognito's posts?

[Matt_S]

I'm getting a kind of quirky town read off Adel.

Matt, what do you think of the recent debates? It seems like you've avoided commenting on most of it.

Adel does seem weird, but other than that he makes good points. I want to hear from Oman before I do anything else.

[Matt_S]

Unvote

Guess these are the only lynches to choose from. Now to wait for opie to claim.

[Matt_S]

At the moment, I'd have to say opie. Since Guardian's random wagon he's been acting fairly helpful. The main question about Guardian right now is why he didn't call Adel out, which we'll never be able to know for sure. I don't really see anything that screams scum from either person, but opie seems to have been the less useful of the two.

[Matt_S]

The only other option that I see is getting a claim from Guardian. I don't know about everyone else, but I'd rather get another claim on day 1.

[Matt_S]

After preview, Matt's last seems bizarre. Why would you rather have a second claim on day 1?

Why would you rather have more players claim than fewer players claim?

I thought you all were crazy until I looked back at my post. There should have been a not between rather and get. I don't misspell word. I leave them out.

[Matt_S]

>.> But sometimes I have words in the wrong form. "Word" up there should be plural.

[Matt_S]

We're running out of time here. For now I'll

Vote ChaosOmega

since I can't recall him doing anything really useful. If anyone has any lynch candidates they'd like to argue for, now's the time to do so.

======================================================

Votecount #25

opie - 5 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Xylthixlm, Guardian)

Guardian - 4 (opie, Incognito, Jitsu, Adel)
ChaosOmega - 3 (Patrick, Erg0, Matt_S)


Not voting - 0 (

nobody

)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
================================================

[Matt_S]

Unvote, Vote: ChaosOmega

This probably has a better shot at getting to a lynch in 27 hours than a Xyl wagon does.

Lol, hello. Didn't see you there.

unvote, vote: opie

Is there any reason for switching?

[Matt_S]

the CO wagon totally fits my expectation for what a late wagon, driven by scum, as an alternative to their scumbuddy's wagon.

Fos: Patrick and Erg0

what about Matt_S?

What he said. I think.

[Matt_S]

The fact that he felt the

need

to explain it is interesting, though.

Even if I hadn't said anything, someone would have brought it up. And unsurprisingly Adel brought it up. Now someone's bringing up the fact that I preemptively brought it up.

[Matt_S]

When did Adel mention it?

He mentioned the wagon in general, not my specific vote. I think the reason he didn't FoS me was because I brought it up.

======================================================

Votecount #26

opie - 6 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Xylthixlm, Guardian, Adel)

Guardian - 3 (opie, Incognito, Jitsu)
ChaosOmega - 3 (Patrick, Erg0, Matt_S)


Not voting - 0 (

nobody

)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
================================================

[Matt_S]

When did Adel mention it?

He mentioned the wagon in general, not my specific vote. I think the reason he didn't FoS me was because I brought it up.

I think Adel's a

she

not a he. And the point Adel brought up wasn't entirely similar to the same issue that Erg0 and Oman are discussing. Adel seems to be linking both Erg0 and Patrick with opie. opie has now been linked to practically everyone in the game. On the contrary, Erg0 and Oman are discussing the fact that your vote seemed to follow Erg0's, and they found it interesting that you felt the need to explain or at least comment on your choice to place the vote directly after Erg0.

Sorry, Adel. I do seem to recall someone saying she before, but I didn't think too much of it.
I realize that people are looking at me because I mentioned that I didn't see Erg0's vote. What confuses me is that the only other thing to do would be to unvote just because of that, or completely ignore Erg0's vote. Both alternatives seem pretty scummy. I figured by mentioning that I hadn't noticed Erg0's vote it would prevent all the "OMG scum r wagoning" comments. Yeah, it's probably what most scum would do, but I'd think that it'd be what most townies do too.

And now that I think about it, the reason Adel didn't FoS me is probably because he's connected opie to me in the past.

And now ChaosOmega can post something.

[Matt_S]

Question to both ChaosOmega and Matt_S:

What's scummy about the way I attacked Guardian?

This may just be me not remembering correctly, but I recall you flat out refusing to respond to Guardian's questions. Yeah, Guardian hadn't answered your questions, but refusing to communicate isn't helpful. Again, I'm not really sure who started the escalation, but when I first read it I thought it was you.

And this day is getting to a close really soon. Who's our lynch?

[Matt_S]

Well, let's see how long it takes him to get here.

[Matt_S]

Player by player mini-analysis after a quick reread of most of the stuff.

Adel
I never really understood why Adel was so sure that opie was scum, and so early on. However, I'll wait for Adel to give the promised explanation.

Oman
Not the nicest player, but he did state suspicions on more than one person. I'd say overall Oman's been useful and protown.

Erg0
It's probably because I was so opposed to the first wagon on him, but I've thought of Erg0 as being protown, and it seems to fit. He contributes to the discussion a lot.

ChaosOmega
If tracker and watcher mean what I think they do, then a cop doesn't seem likely. Especially an insane or paranoid cop. Hasn't contributed much.

Xylthixlm
Also isn't the nicest player. While there were things he did I disapprove of, he did ask a lot of questions of players and their suspicions. Xylthixlm could go either way.

Incognito
Seemed to be very influential day 1. I can't recall him doing anything scummy on day 1. However, today Incognito did seem to either miss or ignore how Oman had named Erg0 suspicious quite often, as well as me. I'll have to see his reply to this though.

Patrick/TrustGossip
TrustGossip looked to be helpful and fairly active. Patrick is definitely helpful and active. I can't think of anything else to say.

Jitsu
The main thing people brought up against him was that he backtracked. I've never looked at that negatively like everyone else did, but I guess I can see why they would find it suspicious. However, Jitsu is another person who asks questions, which I like.

Btw, I'm guessing that knife stabbing isn't likely to be a vig kill?

[Matt_S]

Matt_S, so basically what your analysis boils down to is if you're nice, you're pro-town and if you're mean, you're anti-town? Rofl.

And now you can't recall me doing anything scummy from yesterday but you yourself mentioned yesterday that my reluctance to answer the questions Guardian posed for me was scummy?

I've tried hard to look at things from a neutral perspective today. I've tried to cut people slack for being mean and angry, and I dropped my argument against you being scummy yesterday after things seemed to settle between you and Guardian. I only brought it up again when you asked about it.

[Matt_S]

EBWOP: In other words, yesterday I tended to look more at people who seemed argumentative, and today I tried to get away from that.

[Matt_S]

Sorry for the triple post. Correcting a little misinformation:

I only brought it up again when you

and Patrick

asked about it.

[Matt_S]

@Adel: I guess that explains a lot, and I don't have any numbers to prove you wrong. But I disagree with misleading the town. That makes the fact that people followed you so willingly kind of scary.

@Incognito: Is your most recent post referring to my suspicions today or my suspicions yesterday? At first I thought it was the latter, but I'm not sure. Because I'm suspicious of more nice people than mean people today.

@Jitsu: I don't I voted for opie. I think I just FoSed him.

@ppl who voted for opie: How do you respond to Adel's new statement?

[Matt_S]

@Incognito: Is your most recent post referring to my suspicions today or my suspicions yesterday? At first I thought it was the latter, but I'm not sure. Because I'm suspicious of more nice people than mean people today.

Yeah, I just reread it. It doesn't matter whether you find the nicer people or the meaner people to be scummy. Your view of what's scummy and what isn't seems very simplistic. The meanest person in the world could sometimes be aligned on the side of the town. My point is if you're just going to be judging people's play based on their demeanor, then how do you expect to actually find scum?

It's not a big part today, but yesterday when I saw people acting angry and/or irrational I was tempted to see that as not being helpful, and thus scummy. But now that we've had a night there's a lot more available than just how sociable they were.

[Matt_S]

Adel, what do you think of Oman?

totally scum.

Can I ask why?

[Matt_S]

Are we voting Oman for following opie's bandwagon all of yesterday? Or is there something else that I'm missing? If it's the latter, I'd like to be clued in.

[Matt_S]

So, lemme see if I understand everyone's suspicions.

Oman - He followed the opie wagon and seemed to not be scum hunting.
ChaosOmega - Not playing.
Jitsu - Possibly connected to ChaosOmega for not commenting on the case against him. I think there was more, about his day 1 behavior but I can't recall right now.
Adel - opie wagon all day, hopping on Guardian wagon.
Xylthixlm - Following the opie wagon, and other things I can't recall.

I'm tempted to think Adel is town at the moment, for a variety of WIFOM reasons, plus playing an active role. Of the others, I'd definitely rank ChaosOmega as most likely scum, followed by Oman and Xylthixlm. I'm also having a hard time grasping Jitsu being scum; I can see it but it doesn't seem to fit his actions.

As for the other players, Patrick is about as town as I've seen, and Incognito is iffy, depending mainly on how Oman turns out.

[Matt_S]

Matt_S: An enigma. Early on D1, he seemed desparate to have something to say and made some really bad FoSes with horrible reasoning. I don't like his simplistic view of the game, which seems to be roughly categorizing people due to simple factors like how nice or aggressive they are. He looks like a newbie to me, either way. He's done a number of scummy things, but every once in a while, he surprises me with something that comments that sound seasoned and relatively well-reasoned. In spite of the inconsistency of his play, he had chances to jump on bad wagons or rush to conclusions against townies, and he did not. I can't tell if he is a scum playing it cool, or just a somewhat confused townie. Opinion: Neutral.

I'd rather make bad FoSes than bad votes any day. And the only FoS that I'd take back was my one on opie, since I should have reread it before that. As for my simple view of the game, I just don't see things the way Adel does, how she can seemingly know what everyone is thinking with their posts. Like her FoS on Erg0. I didn't see anything odd about his post, but Adel did. All I had to go on Day 1 was deciding who seemed to be helping the town, and some of the people made arguments against became aggressive rather than answering my suspicions. I also witnessed other people getting aggressive rather than answering suspicions.

And speaking of Adel, I can't see the slipping away thing happening. I don't think ChaosOmega being scum will change many thoughts on Oman.

[Matt_S]

This is a fairly hilarious turn of events. The confirmed townie is now the insane scumcop

[Matt_S]

based on guardian's last post i now feel that he is the sk

I have to ask. What about his post makes him seem more likely to be a serial killer?

[Matt_S]

/third. Also not going for a Matt_S lynch. Adel, you need to stop pointing out your own meta.

Is it legal for me to third this? Adel blindly following Guardian seems oddly different from being the leader day 1.

Like I said earlier, if opie isn't scum then matt_s must be.

I thought it was the opposite. Or am I forgetting something?

[Matt_S]

Note: My post above should say fourth. I can count sort of.

[Matt_S]

So Erg0, are we just stuck in the dark on what Adel is trying to do? Could you say what you think Adel's thinking?

[Matt_S]

Wow, this doesn't seem to be going anywhere. So let's try a different angle. Adel, why do you trust Guardian^2 when he replaced the person that was so scummy to everybody?

[Matt_S]

So... who isn't going to be a lynch candidate today?

[Matt_S]

So... who isn't going to be a lynch candidate today?

everyone except Guardian or Oman, but I'm open to being convinced otherwise by Guardian.

Uh.... Why won't Oman be a lynch candidate?

Vote Adel

[Matt_S]

Crap, I think I was the one who was confused by the double negatives. At first I thought you were trying to keep Oman and Guardian from being lynched. However, now they're the only ones you want to lynch? That also seems odd, so I want an explanation first. Why did you change your mind?

[Matt_S]

This is turning into a semantics argument.

Your question was "Who isn't going to be a lynch candidate today?"

Adel said: "Everyone [isn't going to be a lynch candidate] except Guardian and Oman".

There.

Alright, so, Adel, why the change of plans?

[Matt_S]

But why did you suddenly stop following Guardian? Is it because of what Erg0 said?

[Matt_S]

Yet you say that only Guardian and Oman are going to be lynch candidates.

[Matt_S]

Unvote, Vote Guardian

for the much safer alternative.

[Matt_S]

Matt_S, you say I am the safer lynch than Adel. Why? Because I'm voting you? Why vote Adel and then immediately vote me?

Because it seems more plausible for you to be scum than for Adel. Adel seemed to be having a crazy plan, and I wanted to see where she was going before a big lynch wagon. Of course, I was thinking that Xylthixlm was the third vote on Adel, but it seems I miscounted somewhere.

@Matt_S:

You haven't completed any games here on MS so I really have no way of meta-ing you. Can you link to at least one game from another site possibly where you've been town and one game where you've been scum? Thanks, if you can.

Sorry, I hadn't played for few years when I came here, and on random sites that probably don't exist anymore, so I have no records of any games.

I'm going to push for the Adel lynch first because I feel like she could easily slip away following a Guardian^2 lynch regardless of how it turned out.

More with people slipping away. I don't see that happening, and I see a Guardian^2 lynch revealing a lot more about Adel than the opposite.

[Matt_S]

Why does it seem more plausible? Adel's admittedly picked a townie at random and railroaded them to a lynch. That is more plausibly town than a non-sane cop?

I repeat:

Why vote Adel and then immediately vote me?

Also, your thoughts on Oman?

I voted Adel because she confused me with the "who's a lynch candidate" thing, initially because I misread it, then I kept it because she was still voting for me despite me not being a lynch candidate. Then I switched my vote to you because of what I said earlier: I thought Adel had some crazy plan, and I feared a runaway wagon, so I went with the more probable scum. I find you being scum more likely than ChaosOmega being a nonsane cop given the meta that Jitsu has posted about.

And Oman seems to have been going down hill after Adel revealed that Day 1's lynch was a sham. I'm tempted to believe that they aren't scum together because of the way stuff's happened regarding that.

[Matt_S]

Matt, early in the day, you didn't see why people found Oman scummy Day 1. Did you really not have a problem with Oman's play on Day 1?What was it that changed your mind about Oman on Day 2?

I don't remember saying that I didn't see why people found Oman scummy. I said that about opie though. However, one of the things I found suspicious at first was the whole random wagon against Erg0. However, Guardian^1 did the same thing but was town. Another thing was that Oman made small posts, but he seemed to post a lot and counteract that. And of course the questions that he never answered, but there seemed to be a lot of that going around. That was all I had on him Day 1. As for what changed my mind Day 2, it was Adel's revelation that opie's lynch was random. I only asked about everyone else's reasons in post 806 because I wanted to make sure everybody was on the same page instead of a duplicate of opie on Day 1.

[Matt_S]

Adel, I'm curious why you changed from Guardian^2 being the serial killer to being town.

[Matt_S]

Wow, spring break seems to be an interesting time for mafia.

Unvote Guardian^2

. Well, we have one claimed scum already, so if we can lynch mafia today, and we get a crosskill tonight, that leaves our serial killer and maybe another mafia tomorrow. If Adel's right about Guardian being a good scumhunter, and he actually is a serial killer, then we could have a decent situation tomorrow.

[Matt_S]

How much do you trust Adel right now? What do you think the likelihood is that she is Mafia?

I trust Adel quite a bit since she seems to know how to get things done in the long run. Adel seems to attract scummy actions with her craziness. However, if Guardian^2's actually mafia, then I'd have to put Adel as fairly likely scum. That's for a variety of complicated reasons.

You're only looking at the best case. If we go 1 and 1 on the lynch and kill then we're in LyLo anyway and we may have an SK running around that we can't afford to lynch. At that point Guardian may not need to follow our direction on kills any more.

Picking two suspicious people out of eight and none of them being scum isn't likely to happen. Even if only one of the two is scum we're in a fairly good position. However, if Guardian^2 is the serial killer(and I haven't heard any counterclaims[lol]) and we lynch him, it could be lynch or lose if there's 3 mafia.

[Matt_S]

Okay, there goes one of my top suspects. I'll do a reread tomorrow.

[Matt_S]

Day 1:

opie

- 5 (Oman,

ChaosOmega

,

pickemgenius

,

Adel

,

Guardian^1

)
Day 2:

Guardian^2

- 5 (Erg0, Oman, Incognito,

Adel

, Patrick)

Does anyone else find it odd that almost everyone on the D1 lynch is now dead?

I didn't notice. Is there a reason you're bringing this up?

[Matt_S]

I don't usually expect scum to kill the scummy people.

Why do I get the feeling you're about to bring up some WIFOM about Oman still being alive?

[Matt_S]

If Oman is scum, the scum would be dumb to kill the townies he could hide behind. Although I can sort of see why he'd want to kill Adel.

If Oman isn't scum, it seems most likely that a vig killed Adel and the scum kill was blocked.

Vote Xylthixlm

. Not only did you do what I expected a scum to do, but as someone said in another game, scum seem to bring up good kills or blocked kills.

[Matt_S]

Before I respond to that... what do you think my position is on Oman?

"Scumbuddy who I'm trying to protect". Or, in other words, your position on Oman is not lynching him.

[Matt_S]

So why aren't you voting Oman?

Because for my theory Omanscum follows from Xylthixlmscum, not the other way.

[Matt_S]

So why aren't you voting Oman?

Because for my theory Omanscum follows from Xylthixlmscum, not the other way.

Matt_S, could you explain this? Why does Omanscum only follow Xylthixlmscum?

Well, if Xylthixlm's scum, then that means he's trying to defend Oman. Originally I saw this as trying to defend a scum buddy, but he could also be trying to look protown by defending the person who's about to be lynched. So Omanscum doesn't necessarily follow from Xylthixlmscum like I thought around midnight last night. And last night I was thinking that Omanscum doesn't lead to Xylthixlm scum because defending scum doesn't make you scum for sure. However, I can't see Xylthixlm being town after that WIFOM defense of Oman. A Xylthixlm lynch still gives more info I think.

======================================================

Page 52 Votecount

Oman - 1 (Incognito)

Xylthixlm - 1 (Matt_S)

Not voting - 5 (Oman, Erg0, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu)

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline for D3: Tuesday April 22, 11:11AM GMT+10
================================================

[Matt_S]

However, I can't see Xylthixlm being town after that WIFOM defense of Oman.

Like I said earlier:

When you make judgements about how someone else would play as scum, that's scumhunting. When you make judgements about how

you yourself

would play as scum, that's WIFOM.

I'm pretty sure I could use some witty saying to make my point, but I'm in a hurry. You say that Omanscum would have to be stupid to kill Adel. Just because you don't call it WIFOM doesn't mean that it is any different.

[Matt_S]

I thought I asked this already, but it seems I didn't.

Jitsu: Why do you think I'm the serial killer?

[Matt_S]

Vote: Matt_S

My conclusions are whilst not being overly "townie" I find him to be unconventional town rather than, as matt_s is, conventional scum.

What about me is scummy?

[Matt_S]

I'm starting to think that the way he plays townie would not be the way I or MS.net plays townie.

Matt_S' buddy. He and Erg0 looked bad yesterday.

Matt_S just makes scummy votes, scummy words. Looks scummy.

You have such a mountain of evidence against me. Just look at all the examples that you.... oh wait.

What about Erg0 looked bad yesterday? I haven't seen anything from Erg0 that made me think he's anything but town.

[Matt_S]

I can't see a mass claim helping that much, but I don't see it really hurting either at this point.

[Matt_S]

I don't want to explain why

Why does this remind me of Day 1?

Oman: My vote was after Erg0's

[Matt_S]

I support a mass claim.

Jitsu: Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two scumteams of two people each, or a single scumteam of four?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: a scumteam of two plus a SK, or a single scumteam of three?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two SKs, or a single scumteam of two?

You kind of reversed your position on a claim. And your questions sound like they are designed contrary to your position yesterday.

[Matt_S]

I don't want to explain why

Why does this remind me of Day 1?

Would you prefer instead that I explained why so that the scum can potentially alter their mass claim strategy and mislead us?

Surely you can understand why I'm a little skeptical though.

[Matt_S]

So if the mafia have a second kill tonight, and there's two of them, we're at lynch or lose. I can't see that happening after only one mislynch.

[Matt_S]

Well, that explains why you brought up the unNKable godfather. I wondered why you'd even bring that up.

If Xylthixlm is scum, do people want me to kill Oman tonight, or leave it for the day?

If you're really sure Oman's the scumbuddy, go ahead and go with it. I'd do it if I were you.

[Matt_S]

Wasn't there just a discussion on how unNKable roles are more common for scum than for town?

[Matt_S]

@Jitsu: I'm vanilla. However, I'd like to hear why you try to hint that you're vanilla. People breadcrumb power roles for evidence when they claim. Breadcrumbing vanilla just gives the mafia a chance to hit other townies who are power roles.

Also, I doubt Patrick is a serial killer. Even if he'd be unNKable, that would still make the mafia stronger.

[Matt_S]

Also, as I said yesterday, I don't think Guardian2 would have fakeclaimed SK if he was in a scumteam of only two. So if there were an SK, we would have watcher + tracker against 3 mafia (one of them a GF) and an SK? I don't buy that.

Yeah, looking back, I have some issues with your logic yesterday. I'm not going to quote it because it was a big post, but it's your post 102. First, you mention that Adel may have been killed because the mafia thought she could be a serial killer. Do you still think that was likely that the mafia thought there was a NKable serial killer when the mafia groupd had an unNKable godfather? Also, what made you think the mafia were looking for a serial killer over a vigilante anyways? As for Xylthixlm saying to lynch mafia, it's a lot easier to mislynch people for apparently being mafia than it is to mislynch for acting like a serial killer, at least in my opinion. I've seen lots of scum associations thrown out that didn't turn out to be accurate once the victims were actually identified, but I've seen few suspected serial killers, and most of those actually were serial killers. Finally, what makes you think Guardian was doing anything other than trying to survive?

[Matt_S]

I'm not even sure why you are bringing this up now. At the time of the post you reference, we knew far less information than we know now. I made speculative statements based on the information in hand

I ask now because I didn't see how you came to some of your conclusions yesterday. And since we now have more information, I wanted to see how you reflected on your prior views. The answers were satisfactory, but not as informative as I thought they'd be.

The reason I've been limiting this to a few is the wording of his post: he qualifies it with a "for now", which implies he's going to move off soon, and then invites people to bring other lynch candidates to the table.

What if I had said "for the rest of the day" instead? I still intended to get things done.

Nevertheless, in the midst of several suspicions on townies, Matt did vote for Xylthixlm, although I think his reasons weren't very strong. Xylthixlm promptly countervotes Matt.

The only other suspicious people I remember at the time were Guardian(for the Erg0 wagon, which I had already pursued), Jitsu(for his backing down, which I never found suspicious), opie(who I had been unable to find anything overly suspicious about), and Oman(who I also saw as not helping, but without some of the faulty logic).

and he later unvoted and said the lynch would be either Guardian or opie, about 5 days before deadline (too early in my view to give up).

Everybody else acted like Xylthixlm was acting like Xylthixlm. I figured others actually had a meta on him.

[Matt_S]

What if I had said "for the rest of the day" instead? I still intended to get things done.

If you'd said that, it would have communicated something different. It would have implied your vote wasn't going to shift on day 1 from ChaosOmega.

But would you have found that suspicious? Could I have added any qualifier to my vote that you wouldn't find suspicious?

[Matt_S]

I wouldn't say I found it terribly suspicious, I just said that the addition kind of weakened your vote on ChaosOmega, because it implied you'd only be there in passing.

I'm always open for convincing. If anyone had a reason for me to vote for someone other than ChaosOmega, I wanted to hear it, but nobody said anything to change my mind before the day ended.

[Matt_S]

You know, Matt_S did a lot more lurking D1 and his D1 posts had a lot less content than I remembered.

I don't recall ever lurking. I think the longest I've gone without posting is 3 days, and that only happened once or twice. However, when I first arrived at mafiascum, I didn't get on every day.

I'd like to know what those reasons were.

Mainly the way Adel wanted to keep Guardian^2 alive for a day. And of course the vote following. However, there was also the fact that Adel seemed to leave ChaosOmega alone Day 1. Guardian^2 also put Adel on his "scummy" list. I know people said that Guardian didn't distance, but I didn't believe that.

[Matt_S]

I find myself disliking your reaction to Guardian's SK claim, because you unvoted him and hardly seemed to think about the scenarios where he could have been lying mafia. If you found it unlikely, what made you believe his claim?

I believed it because nobody counterclaimed another kill. If he was lying mafia, and a townie knew it, then Guardian^2 would have died. And he did. As for the analyzing, I didn't see any way for Guardian^2SK to screw the town without screwing himself. Of course, my laptop died shortly after I unvoted, so I didn't get a chance to look at the numbers.

[Matt_S]

EBWOP: I didn't answer the question of Guardian's likelihood of being maifa. I was thinking less than 50%, but still decent. Maybe 35% chance of being mafia at the time.

[Matt_S]

Responses in whatever order I happen to put them in.

148: Matt is playing the newbie card here

Someone asked me a question about statistics. I didn't know the statistics and I admitted it.

144: Matt reponse to my question makes no sense. And the "unless I believe the argument against someone, I defend them" comment? That doesn't sound right either to me -- "Innocent until proven guilty" does not apply to mafia. Rather, it's more the opposite.

To each his own.

233: Matt retracts his FoSes on Opie and Oman and votes Xyl because of process of elimination?

Yeah, pretty much.

235: Opie seems to have a good post criticizing Matt here, and Matt does not seem to have any response.

When I see the first post of a double post, I don't always realize it's a different post when I read it later.

338: Matt plays the newbie card again. Odd attempt here to draw sympathy from the crowd?

Joke. Hence the smiley.

484: Matt's extremely poor reason for unvoting Xyl when there was plenty of time to further debate the issues, as Patrick has already pointed out.

As I already said, most people seemed to think that was Xylthixlm's meta and that there wasn't anything wrong with it.

465: Wait a minute, now Matt is throwing his weight behind Incognito's posts against Oman? What happened to his suspicion against Incognito?

So because I was suspicious of Incognito, I wasn't able to get someone to answer questions?

471: Matt replies to Patrick's assertion that he has not commented on the most recent debates... by not really commenting on them.

I commented. If it wasn't long enough for you, I would have talked more.

538: Matt asserts he did NOT want to get another claim on D1. So Matt is basically asserting the exact opposite of what he intended?
508: Matt is going fishing again? Patrick comments on this in the next post.

Typos happen.

687: Matt's respons here isn't very helpful and seems to be flinging it right back at Incognito here.

I explained exactly why I was suspicious. I don't see what you think is wrong with it.

761: Matt is more suspicious of nice people today than mean people? WTF is up with that?

Yeah, there was a correlation between the nice people and the suspicious people. That doesn't mean I was suspicious of them because they were nice.

1138: We still haven't gotten an answer why Matt thought that if Guardian2 was scum that Adel was fairly likely scum. Is this Matt setting Adel up for a mislynch on D3? Also, Matt thinks Guardian2 is the SK because nobody counterclaimed him?

I'd like to know what those reasons were.

Mainly the way Adel wanted to keep Guardian^2 alive for a day. And of course the vote following. However, there was also the fact that Adel seemed to leave ChaosOmega alone Day 1. Guardian^2 also put Adel on his "scummy" list. I know people said that Guardian didn't distance, but I didn't believe that.

And yes, when nobody else claimed to have made the second kill I concluded that Guardian^2 was the second killer.

1208: Erg0 correctly refutes Guardian2's (and Matt's from 1138) assertion that Guardian2 must be the SK because he was not counterclaimed. It's interesting that Guardian2 basically swiped Matt's reason from 1138 and Matt doesn't find this suspicious.

Of course, my laptop died shortly after I unvoted

a.k.a. I was absent for the end of the day.

1355: Matt seems to believe Patrick, but does not express any intent to vote Xyl here.

I was the first person to vote for Xylthixlm that day.

1407: Matt tries to sling some dirt at me for my logic yesterday. This looks like a really bad attempt to throw suspicion on me. I can't really see how the questions he's asking would reveal anything about me because there was no contradiction, as I mentioned in 1410. His other questions didn't even make much sense.

I wanted to know where your logic came from, since you made a lot of guesses about the game setup. I thought my questions made sense, but that won't change your mind.

[Matt_S]

I'm leaning towards Matt_S as scum, especially after the recent posts by Erg0 and Jitsu, but what I'd really like right now is for Matt to say who he suspects and why.

Also, Matt, you've now said twice today that you unvoted Xylthixlm because people seemed to be saying they had a meta on him that meant his behaviour was normal. Maybe I'm just missing it, but I don't remember anyone saying anything like that, and I think Xyl has only completed one game on the forum. Can you give some specific posts of people saying they had a meta on him?

I may have been drawing too many conclusions, but quite a few people said that Xylthixlm looked protown day 1. I figured that since they didn't have a problem with him, then Xylthixlm always acted the way he did. I looked through lots of people's posts, but pretty much the only posts I saw attacking Xylthixlm were for him following Adel, other than TrustGossip. Among the people who seemed to ignore his style, were Jitsu,who said he thought Xylthixlm was protown; Incognito, who in general asked for quite a bit of meta, but never from Xylthixlm, and who never said he found Xylthixlm scummy day 1(ignoring arbitrary arguments); Adel, who only seemed to feud with Xylthixlm about statistics; and pickemgenius, who didn't really interact with Xylthixlm much. I found it hard that so many people wouldn't have a problem with how Xylthixlm played unless they knew he just played that way. It's not specifics, but I'll look for some posts if you want them.

In the beginning I had Jitsu as a potential serial killer, simply because he seemed to avoid too much interaction. I've had my eye on him until Guardian^2 claimed, then until you claimed vig. I might be able to make a case against him, but I haven't been able to see too much suspicious interaction with Xylthixlm or ChaosOmega/Guardian^2. Quite a bit of it came from how much he mentioned the serial killer, which I found a bit odd. I don't have any idea if it's accurate, but I heard someone say that people like making little hints about their roles. However, if Jitsu's mafia that could just be him trying to mislead the town. Jitsu talked about Adel. maybe being nightkilled for being a serial killer, which struck me as odd looking back because it seems scummy when people try to guess why someone was killed. There's also Jitsu's post 24, where he says that when he's scum he will have to fear the spotlight. When I reread it after Jitsu said he hinted at vanilla, it seemed like he was trying to differentiate himself from scum. Again, though, I haven't seen any big interaction between Jitsu and CO/G^2 and Xylthixlm, though Jitsu declaring that he thought Xylthixlm was pretty protown could be a sign of a scum association. I don't want to make that jump because I haven't seen anything similar between Jitsu and CO/G^2

[Matt_S]

Wait, double post: Erg0, why didn't you think Jitsu would vote for you?

[Matt_S]

I suppose "not antitown" would be a better term. However, few people saw Xylthixlm's actions as suspicious. I trusted the majority because I thought it was the best choice. I'll get to the specific posts tomorrow, because I have to get to my homework which I should have started a while ago.

[Matt_S]

Alright, people who didn't express suspicion of Xylthixlm's playstyle, D1

Xyl and ChaosOmega have already been allowed to get away with majorly wagonny votes on opie

I will review these.

Oman never mentioned it again.

And Adel's only spat with Xylthixlm was over Adel's algorithm for getting scum and incorrect math.

Pickemgenius only responded to a few questions from Xylthixlm, and nothing else.

I do not understand the whole TrustGossip/Xylthixlm exchange. Especially, TrustGossip's behavior. It seemed to come out of nowhere to me and a bit over reactive. I'm not a big fan of the name calling or personal attacks.

opie found TrustGossip suspicious, but not Xylthixlm, who wasn't any better.

Guardian^1 seemed to be big about meta, especially regarding Adel, but didn't have anything to say about Xylthixlm.

And a few others. It's difficult to show most of them without quoting lots of posts in their original context. Now some scum interactions with others. Not much specifics.

ChaosOmega

Me: Random vote. Nothing else.
Jitsu: "I'll be lynched regardless" thing, which he claims cop in. Not much else.
Erg0: Nothing at all.
TrustGossip: Nada.
Patrick: Answered a question about Incognito. Nothing else.

Xylthixlm

Me: Random vote, attacks before switching to opie, attacks after switching to opie.
Jitsu: "Arbitrary". Says Jitsu's protown. A little bit of questions both ways.
Erg0: A joke about lynching Erg0, then attacks opie for Erg0 wagon. Also says Erg0 is protown.
TrustGossip: Arguing.
Patrick: Xylthixlm asks him about his case on Jitsu. Not much else.

Later tonight I'll go the opposite way with how people interacted with scum. But now, baseball game. Go Royals!

[Matt_S]

BTW, last post was exclusively Day 1 posts. This will be too. I'll do day 2 and 3 tomorrow because I'm lazy and tired after watching sports.

My posts: obvscum it seems. I can't believe I didn't lynch myself earlier.

Alrighty. Patrick. I'm skipping TrustGossip who seemed to keep a pretty consistent perspective. Post numbers refer to Patrick's posts individually.

Post 1: Likes Xylthixlm except for him slipping off the opie wagon. Criticizes ChaosOmega for lurking.
Post 2: Explains to Xylthixlm why he's against Jitsu.
Post 15: Would favor ChaosOmega wagon, so-so for Xylthixlm
Post 17: Votes ChaosOmega, still seems so-so for Xylthixlm
Post 25: Calls Xylthixlm's opie vote lazy.

Erg0 time. Has a few interesting moments.
Post 5: Random daykill talk.
Post 20: Criticizes ChaosOmega for lurking, blahblah, Xylthixlm following Adel, likely opie buddy.
Post 35: Asks Xylthixlm about his sudden opie vote
Post 39: Votes Xylthixlm. Found that slightly interesting.
Post 66:Switches to ChaosOmega. I don't get why ChaosOmega was his second choice.

Jitsu next. More stuff, but just slightly interesting.
Post 2: "Arbitrary".
Post 20: Asks Xylthixlm about his opie vote.
Post 27: This is where he says Xylthixlm seemed protown.
Post 29: Again calls Xylthixlm town for fairly analyzing Guardian^1.
Posts 37, 38: Some questions for ChaosOmega.
Post 41: Declares suspicion on ChaosOmega.
Post 45: Seems to try to throw suspicion off the ChaosOmega wagon.
Post 47, 48: Small misunderstanding with Xylthixlm.
Post 49: Implicates ChaosOmega and Xylthixlm, but adds that he's not sure.
Post 50: Looks for scum bussing ChaosOmega. Never says results.

My attention span is being divided between even more things. I just want to sleep forever.

[Matt_S]

What do you conclude from these interactions?

Jitsu's interactions with Xylthixlm and ChaosOmega seem to fit with how he interacts with everyone else. The one odd thing that stood out was how he said Xylthixlm was protown, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. I was thinking possible serial killer at first because Jitsu seemed kind of backgroundy to me, and he seemed to play a lot of things safely with the cases he pursued. The same things could be applied to say he's scum, but his interactions say otherwise.

Erg0, as I said, voted for Xylthixlm Day 1, after saying ChaosOmega was also scummy. He said he usually was against using lurking as a scumtell, but that he had a scum meta on ChaosOmega. He also made a case on Oman, who seemed to be just as good a vote candidate. It's a weak interaction that I may be looking too much into, but it stands out to me.

All you really have going against you was that your predecessor and Xylthixlm had their argument, but that would implicate me just as much.

Overall, things seem to point slightly towards Jitsu. I'll do Day 2 next, maybe Day 3 if it doesn't make the post too big.

[Matt_S]

K, day 2. I'll split Day 2 and day 3 for space.

Erg0 first. Going alphabetical this time.
Post 74: Opens with a CO vote because of unlikelyhood.
Post 76: He's not moving his vote.
Post 88: Lynch CO before Adel
Post 107: Asks Xylthixlm how much of his dislike of Adel is because of policy
Post 121: G^2, Xyl, Oman combo again
Post 123: Reasserts strong position on G^2
Lots of other posts: large argument with G^2.
A few posts: Game trees with Xylthixlm.

Jitsu next.
Post 52: Adamantly opposed to quicklynch on CO.
Post 58: Questions all around about opie wagon.
Post 60: Says Xylthixlm is going for a fast day.
Post 63: Xyl, Co, Oman combo again. Interesting order, with CO first, then the townie, Xylthixlm a distant third.
Post 68, 69: ChaosOmega probably isn't the serial killer.
Post 77: Large attack on G^2
Lots of posts: game tree.
Post 97: G^2, Oman, and Adel are the scum now.

I was going to do Patrick, but he has a ton of conversations with Guardian^2. I will mention one post though. Post 43: Asks Xylthixlm if there's a reason not to consider CO being a possible serial killer. It's interesting how he caught one scum apparently knowing the other scum is scum.

Conclusion time. Erg0 pushed hard against CO/G^2. Seems more of a town action than bussing. However, Erg0's interaction with Xylthixlm seems a little odd since Xyl was one of his suspects. Jitsu not going for a quickwagon seems protown, but I think his position of G^2/CO not being serial killer could have been staged if he's scum. He also drops Xylthixlm off his top 3, but given Adel's play that's sort of understandable. And if someone wants to convince me that Patrick's antitown, you'll need an epic case.

Day 3 to come after I charge my darn laptop.

[Matt_S]

Day 3 time. Jitsu first for arbitrary reasons. See what I did there?
Post 99: Attacks Xylthixlm for trying to quicklynch the day before.
Post 102: Xylthixlm and Oman are scum. Talks a lot about a serial killer and Xylthixlm's stance on serial killers.
Posts 107, 110: Responds to Xylthixlm's scumgroup questions.
Post 111: Waits for a claim before voting Xylthixlm
Post 114: Votes Xylthixlm

Erg0.
Post 150: Accuses Xylthixlm of misdirection.
Post 153: Vig vs nurse.

And given Patrick's claim, I don't see any problems with Patrick's posts yesterday.

I think this is one of Jitsu's best days. One thing that I didn't notice before is that Erg0 never voted for Xylthixlm. I'm curious why he was reluctant to hammer. He already stated his stance on nking Oman, and hadn't seen Oman's "hammer" vote. However, overall I think I'm still leaning towards Jitsu. Now though, another Royals game. Gonna maybe beat the Yankees again.

[Matt_S]

Matt, are you waiting on something before you make your final conclusion?

I was hoping for responses, defenses, etc.

[Matt_S]

You say this interaction stands out, but I can't tell whether you're saying it stands out as good or bad for Erg0. Which way does it make you lean?

It seems a little bad, but it could easily be coincidence. It's odd that he votes for Xylthixlm from among his suspects, and I was thinking along the "he knows he's guilty" line.

Which interaction with Xylthixlm was odd here? Why was it odd? I haven't managed to find one that looks odd.

Erg0 never really attacked Xylthixlm day 2, but he didn't really leave him alone either. Erg0 asked him questions about his suspicions, and they debated whether Guardian^2 should live, but I don't recall him actually directly accusing Xylthixlm on day 2. He just sort of said "I think Xylthixlm's scum".

[Matt_S]

Erg0's answers have appeased me.

If Matt is lynched as town today, I'd be vigging Jitsu if not roleblocked.

I'd support this. Sort of.

[Matt_S]

Given Adel's random lynch Day 1 and her votehopping on Day 2, would it not have been wise to not fully trust Adel at that point?

Am I the only one who saw Xylthixlm push so hard for Adel's lynch? Am I the only one who thought that was scummy? Am I the only one who then believed Adel was attracting scum?

[Matt_S]

Given Adel's random lynch Day 1 and her votehopping on Day 2, would it not have been wise to not fully trust Adel at that point?

Am I the only one who saw Xylthixlm push so hard for Adel's lynch? Am I the only one who thought that was scummy? Am I the only one who then believed Adel was attracting scum?

This doesn't really add up with your behaviour on day 2, where you voted Adel in the middle of the day. Also, you never mentioned this at all when voting for Xyl on day 3. This strikes me as somewhat revisionist.

Day 2 Adel was doing crazy stuff. Adel confused me with the vote proxy thing. Xylthixlm pushed for an Adel lynch based on basically Lynch All Liars. I saw that as Xylthixlmscum trying to lynch Adeltown. I became suspicious of Adel when I read the end of the day because of her flipflopping, but when she turned up town, I looked back at those who attacked her. Xylthixlm was the person who came up. However, "attacking the scummy townie" would have been piss poor evidence. Then Xylthixlm brought up some WIFOM reasons for Oman being town. That's when I voted Xylthixlm.

@Patrick: Are you still going to vig Jitsu?

[Matt_S]

Sorry team. I was gambling on Oman telling the truth about being unNKable. I knew I wouldn't be able to beat the minds of three townies, so I hoped Oman would live and we'd lynch him. Then I'd only have to worry about Patrick's mind, which probably still would have killed me. I chose Incognito instead of Erg0 because I wanted someone(hopefully Jitsu) to wonder why Erg0 was still alive, so that I could attack them for being stupid. It didn't work. That's what I tried to do for most of the game, plant WIFOM and wait for someone to jump on it. That's the reason I wanted to kill Adel (Xylthixlm thought she was the vig[I thought Incognito or Patrick was the vig, or Oman or Jitsu the serial killer]). Just to assuage your curiosity, I suggested pickemgenius for N1's kill because I thought he was the likely cop. I was almost right.

Unfortunately, I spent most of the game freaking out about how scummy my partners were acting(what Patrick calls Stoofer's syndrome). That, not distancing, is why I voted Xylthixlm day 1. And day 3 for using such crappy WIFOM. I tried to warn you . The fact that you attacked me back made it awkward for me since I couldn't just back down suddenly, so I had to keep attacking you. It also surprises me how little I had to lie. However, I think my truthfulness was my downfall. I didn't make enough cases on people because I knew they were crap.

Now, I have a question for the town. If Guardian^2 really was the serial killer, and you knew he wasn't actually mafia, would you view lynching him as the best move? I thought that letting him live would be the best move from the town's perspective, so I went with it.

And I fear this game will give me a bad meta that will get me mislynched a lot as town. However, this gives me a good guide on how not to play as scum in the future.

Good game, town.

1) Was the setup balanced? Or, rather, would it have been balanced if the tracker and watcher didn't die before doing anything Razz?

I think it was fairly balanced. The two investigators dying was a convenient coincidence, but not breaking I don't think. However, the lack of a doctor and a cop made things awkward to analyze. Oddly, I did get pickemgenius, and I thought Guardian was the doc.

2) I basically came up with my nightkill MOs on a whim. As in, there was nothing systematic about them; it was just me trying to have fun with the deaths. Was that appropriate?

It confused me a lot. I thought there was a bus driver at first, with the knife being a serial killer. However, I don't think it really did any harm to either side, so it was fine.

3) Vote-counts. Did my system of having the top-of-page counts and the first page collection work well?

If I actually had to skim through who voted for who and when, it would be neat. But I usually look at the context of the votes, so I didn't look at the first post too much. I really dislike analyzing large amounts of stuff, which is why I think my endgame performance will probably make me dead a lot in the future.

4) Anything else?

Ironically, I think the deadline is the only reason we ended up wagoning ChaosOmega to the point of him fakeclaiming. If we weren't under pressure, I also would have stayed on Xylthixlm instead of rushing to be important late in the day.

[Matt_S]

Why not nightkill me instead? Remove the town's second shot at finding scum.

I probably just thought way too much into it, but the main reason was that I believed that Oman would be alive, either because he was telling the truth with his unNKable claim or you wouldn't kill him for whatever reason. Then we'd have 5 people left, which would be two shots for the town anyways, so I figured it would be better if you made your shot the following night rather than two townies against me the next day.

It's probably better to make the more straight forward kills, as many people will be wary of reading too much into the nightkills anyway. And in this case, killing Adel didn't really frame or implicate anyone, because she was so unpredictable and had expressed suspicion of pretty much every player in the game at some point.

You're probably right, but for the Adel kill Xylthixlm thought she was the vig, and it sounded plausible. The WIFOM there was just a potential added bonus. Of course, I was also busy that day bussing Xylthixlm, when I should have waited and pressured Jitsu when he talked about the mafia searching for the SK.

I totally believe you were freaking out most of the game. It's a wonder you didn't have an aneurysm. Don't be so hard on yourself. I think you did a pretty decent job, all things considered. Your partners dug you a pretty big hole, IMHO. ChaosOmega's lurking and not justifying any of his votes doomed him D1, and Xylthixlm's alternating between attacking you for odd things and then ignoring you is ultimately what did both of you in. Once Xylthixlm drew the Vig kill (even though it failed), it was over. I would say that I caught you not so much by anything you said as it was how your partners interacted with you.

Thanks. However, I think I brought most of my interaction with Xylthixlm on myself.