Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Guardian]

Hey guys. Next 3 weeks is a very busy time in my life, fyi.

Vote: Adel

.

[Guardian]

unvote vote: Erg0

[Guardian]

unvote: Adel vote: Erg0

[Guardian]

I hear you're a secret aussie. Also -- you plan to hang separately? Why are you planning to hang -- and you plan on Oman's death?

[Guardian]

Erg0, why do you want Oman to hang? And why are you threatening use of a day vig?

After a re-read, I think Erg0 is definitely the best place for our votes.

[Guardian]

Xyl, did you mean definition 3b? If not, please explain what you did mean, and why you thought that it should not have been assumed that you meant 3b.

I'd like everyone to examine the Erg0 wagon and comment on it, say if it is the best place for votes or not, and explain why. If you think there is a better place for votes, explain why that is the best place.

[Guardian]

Guardian driving Ergo's wagon makes me uneasy.

I'm not driving a wagon, but why would me doing so make you uneasy?

You demand everyone give there thoughts on Erg0 and explain why they don't think he is worthy of a vote?

I've also demanded that people not thinking Erg0 is worthy of a vote explain why someone else is. I've asked for discussion, in a game of mafia. This troubles you?

Vote: Guardian
FOS: Oman and Adel

Why is voting for Erg0 suspicious?

I like Opie's post above.

What about it? Do you agree?

@Guardian: Since you're voting for Erg0 and do seem to be making an attempt to push his wagon here, why don't you explain why you think Erg0 is more deserving of a vote than Oman?

I'm not sure who is most deserving of a vote right now.

Erg0 has since claimed he does this every game, but the "hang separately option" and "I just want you to hang" bit raised my eyebrows, and made me think he was the best wagon at the time.

The (presumably fake?) day vigs don't really say anything to me.

Opie's post actually heightened my suspicion there -- I'd really like a good explanation from both opie, and Jitsu who categorically "liked opie's post" to explain why everyone voting Erg0 is worthy of suspicion.

[Guardian]

To clarify, I have accrued two votes and one fos for:

1. Taking this game seriously
   
2. Taking comments in this game seriously
   
3. Wanting others to take this game seriously
   
4. Asking others to play this game

Is this a significant mis-categorization? Is there something I've missed?

[Guardian]

@Incognito: Not really, plus this game I promised myself that I would approach Adel with a clean slate.

Well, I think in our last game I over reacted to your methods a bit. I didn't hear you out. This go round I promise to hear you out.

Why did you make this promise, opie?

ps: I'm really busy right now, and my one other game is near deadline; plus I'm kind of annoyed at mafia in general (because of that game). So, not much to expect from me, sorry.

[Guardian]

unvote, vote:opie

obvscum trying to hard to be seen scumhunting.
This vote is good through to his lynch, which should take about six pages.

Could you explain this, possibly with reference to post #s and/or quotes?

[Guardian]

vote: pickmegenius

Why? because I said so!

And. Because Adel has too many votes already...

communicates to his scum buddies that he is apt to chase the later votes on any wagon.

Why do you think he was communicating with his scum buddies in his first post of the game? Also, can you re-clarify -- what exactly was he communicating to them?

[Guardian]

Come again? You don't think it is a tell, now?

[Guardian]

So, Adel, you think it was a tell, as in with that bit you crossed out, but not that he was communicating anything to his buddies?

[Guardian]

FoS: opie

From Adel's answers, I think her case makes sense, and seems sincere. Adel is a tricky devil as scum, and in my experience often wrong as town, though :\.

Also, while opie answered my question of him well, I'd like to ask him further:
Why do you want to keep an open mind to Adel's methods, when she was wrong in the only game you were in with her?

I don't want to move my vote to opie quite yet. I want to re-read the full game when I get a chance. There is strong suspicion against opie and I don't want a quick wagon/forced claim -- at least not until I have re-read the game.

Incognito, I really am having a hard time understanding your question. If you want an answer, I'll need you to re-explain what you want me to respond about.

[Guardian]

I re-read.

I want to hear from ChaosOmega.

I also want to hear content from PEG. It doesn't have to be a long post, but I want you to say something substantive about another player in the game.

TrustGossip, what do you think about this opie wagon?

I tentatively support Adel's points on opie. I believe that she genuinely believes in them, but that doesn't make opie scum. However, the clarification she made about opie's first post, in addition to the last part about not recognizing things as they were, and instead nailing everyone on Erg0's wagon, make me want to vote him.

I am still very interested in what opie has to say, especially in response to my question in 178.

unvote: Erg0 vote: opie

[Guardian]

Thats the second time Guardian's followed me onto a wagon. He looks like a better target to me.

It seems rather that your 181 followed my 178, not the other way round, no?

[Guardian]

It seems rather that your 181 followed my 178, not the other way round, no?

You didn't vote in 178, therefor you were not on the wagon. You vote in 183.

Try harder.

You didn't express any suspicion of opie or intent to vote him until after I did.

Try harder.

[Guardian]

I like how Matt_S put a fos on his scumbuddy but still hasn't decided to buss him.

Wow, I see what you see -- was he really that transparent? Maybe he is a better lynch, I shall ponder.

[Guardian]

Meh, I'm not sure I'm convinced that he actually was revealing anything there. His play otherwise has been OK.

Not 100% sold on opie, but I don't see anything better.

[Guardian]

Incognito, thanks for clarifying, I think I understand what you are asking now.

Guardian, my issue is this: In the beginning of the game, you seemed intent on having everyone explain their stance about the Erg0 mini-wagon. Xylthixlm made a post seen here which leads me to believe that he was in favor of the Erg0 wagon but he doesn't follow up this statement with a vote on Erg0. After Xyl's statement, you questioned Xyl about which definition of "arbitrary" he was using and then you polled everyone else to try to find out their stance with respect to the wagon: Post 65. When you questioned Xyl about his usage of the word "arbitrary", why did you not question Xylthixlm about his lack of a vote against Erg0 when he seemed to be in favor of the wagon?

Well, in that post you quoted, I asked Xyl specifically about the word arbitrary, and I asked everyone to post thoughts on the wagon, or on another player (basically I asked everyone to get back to listing suspects and playing the game).

So, while I did not pick out Xyl specifically, I asked everyone -- Xyl was included in that.

If unsatisfied with that, and you are wondering why I didn't pick out Xyl for his inconsistency on Erg0 since I was so interested in Erg0, I have a few responses to that.

The first is that, like I said, I wasn't particularly interested in Erg0

per se

, I just wanted players to take a stand on other players and name their top suspects. When I made the post, I didn't comb over the thread to look for those who had taken stances on Erg0 or not -- I just noticed that the thread was getting somewhat de-railed and wanted to get it back on track. Considering that, it seems to be an arbitrary assignment of responsibility on me to call him out -- anyone could have pointed out that inconsistency of Xyl's, and I don't see why it should be incumbent upon me to do so.

The second is that, even if you are unsatisfied with the above, when I read that post of Xyl, I took it to mean that he was joking, so I didn't really see an inconsistency at all. The ellipse (...) and tone of his post made me think he was making a joke that discussion was interrupting lynching someone who he didn't even care enough about lynching to remember their name.

I hope that clarifies my non targeting him for you.

[Guardian]

I thought Erg0's joking was scummy. I thought Xyl's joking wasn't. If you find that arbitrary... it is.

Re: opie, I have played with Adel, and read games she has been in, and I didn't want to agree with her reasoning unless I was fairly sure it was sound. Not sure how that is scummy.

[Guardian]

Also, Incognito -- why wait until I answered? How could I have answered the question you asked differently and not have been found suspicious by you?

[Guardian]

Also, Incognito -- why wait until I answered? How could I have answered the question you asked differently and not have been found suspicious by you?

If you knew what answer wouldn't be viewed as suspicious, would you have given that one?

I'd have given the same answer regardless.

That's not the point of my question.

The point is Incognito asks his question before posting his case on me, and then uses my response to his question in the case. I can't think of any way I could have answered that Incognito wouldn't have started his post with

"Awesome

vote: Guardian"

so again I wonder why he waited for me to respond/how I might have responded that would have changed his mind.

[Guardian]

So I thought to myself: "Well, maybe this Guardian fellow just has a difficult time determining what's humor on the internet and what isn't. I certainly wouldn't want to

miscategorize him as scum if he really has a difficult time making that distinction

."

...

By the way, there was

a lot more to my case besides the difference between Erg0's joke post and Xyl's joke post

but yet you chose to only respond to the last portion of my case.

bolding and shortening by Guardian

Wait, which is it Incognito?

If I was bad at identifying humor, the rest of your case would have disappeared? You would have been

miscategorizing me as scum if I really had a difficult time making that distinction

?

Or, would the rest of your case, this case that

there is a lot more to besides the difference between Erg0's joke post and Xyl's joke post

still have been there?

I'm terribly confused... and suspicious. There seems to be a striking disparity between those two comments of yours, coming from the same post.

On the one hand, you say you waited to comment on me because had I not been able to tell the difference between humor and not humor, I would not have been suspicious. On the other hand, you say there is a lot to your case besides me arbitrarily finding some humor suspicious and some humor not suspicious. Could you explain how you are not being terribly self-contradictory?

=======================================

Votecount #9

opie - 3 (Adel, Oman, Guardian)

TrustGossip - 2 (pickemgenius, Xylthixlm)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Incognito)
Matt_S - 1 (ChaosOmega)
Oman - 1 (Jitsu)

Not voting - 3 (Matt_S, TrustGossip, Erg0)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

[Guardian]

I find an opie-Matt_S scum-group not unlikely.

Incognito might be a good third, I don't see I straw-man'd him significantly, just pointed out an inconsistency that he didn't refute.

I am happy with my vote on opie.

I am not particularly motivated to respond to Incognito's case on me.

[Guardian]

Incognito, which "response to your case" of mine are you referencing?

[Guardian]

Yeah Incog, if you are town, you're certainly not winning me over with "is 100% scum". Adel could be convincing tricky scum, she is saying a lot of what I "want" to hear.

Your unwillingness to work with me makes me unlikely to work with you, which is a shame if you're town.

[Guardian]

Stop being so ignorant and thick-headed.

I'd advise against being intentionally insulting if you want to make friends or influence people in the future.

100% bullshit is more like it.

Oh. I guess you're not the insulting type.

P.S. I'm not here to be your "friend". I'm here to play Mafia.

I've seen a scum say this like 3 times and never a townie.

Incognito, which "response to your case" of mine are you referencing?

Guardian, I refuse to answer your questions since you have now deliberately not answered a few of mine.

Cool, so it is acceptable for me not to? /relieved

Yeah Incog, if you are town, you're certainly not winning me over with "is 100% scum". Adel could be convincing tricky scum, she is saying a lot of what I "want" to hear.

Your unwillingness to work with me makes me unlikely to work with you, which is a shame if you're town.

Are you even reading the game and what you're typing? I said that I am 100% certain that

you

are scum. You're suggesting that I need to win you over about your own alignment?

What if you are wrong and we need to work together to find scum? Oh wait, you're 100% sure. So you can't be wrong. lulz. I'll be 100% sure of someone being scum if I see them shoot someone in the head. Other than that, never 100% sure, and always leave doors open in case your suspicions are off.

I also never even said what I think about Adel's alignment.

ANd I never said you ever even said what you think about her alignment :\.

Further, you said "she is saying a lot of what I want to hear" but it was

you

who adopted

her

case on opie and agreed with her on MattS. How exactly does that work?

Here's how it works. She says a lot of what I want to hear -- good cases, putting down people I find scummy, etc. SO I agree with her. She says what I want to hear, and I agree. Is that hard?

[Guardian]

WOULD YOU MIND LINKING TO ALL THREE SO WE DON'T HAVE TO TAKE YOU AT YOUR WORD?

yeah, I would mind. feel free to read through all my games (wiki)and all the games I've read (good luck there) and find them though (:.

oh, also like 3/4 games just ended. Ork mafia, nightless, cliche' town, doom in valencia.

I'm not motivated to respond to a post Incog made *in this game*. You think I'm going to look through all my old games and all the games I've read and find what I'm talking about? lolz.

[Guardian]

Guardian, why are you not motivated to respond to Incognito?

I thought no one would ever ask.

I'm busy, and many of his points are correct. I've followed Adel a lot. I ask many questions. I disagree that those things are indicative of my being scum, but I can't refute the facts. Also, while I don't find his case convincing, I think it would take quite a bit of time to respond to in sufficient depth to come anywhere near refuting.

Defenses are overrated anyway. Especially since not many are convinced by Incognito, and he is "100% sure" I am scum, I don't see how it would be a valuable expenditure of my time and effort to make arguments that aren't going to change many people's minds about anything. About 3 people have an inclination I'm scum right now, and I don't think responding to Incognito's case would do much, possibly reducing the number suspicious of me to 2 people from 3.

My time is much more valuably spent trying to find scum right now.

[Guardian]

you should be reading Guardians response to Incognito please.

Hmm. Interesting that PEG should say this. What response, sir? We may have found a better lynch candidate, yet.

Prima facia (at first glance) it seems like this is PEG blatantly buddying to me, siding with me in opposition to opie.

FOS: PEG

[Guardian]

ChaosOmega saying anything at all would be great.

Oman, you disapprove of PEG being FOS'd?

[Guardian]

Oman, why do you think my fos is for bad/the wrong reasons?

[Guardian]

Erg0, my world has not been set on fire. I don't really see the inconsistency that you claim to see.

Adel, you lied, this opie lynch is taking way longer than 6 pages .

[Guardian]

Also Adel is your 289 completely serious?

[Guardian]

What do you think of other players besides opie, CO? Who is next in suspiciousness? Is opie the most suspicious, or only got your vote because he has the most?

[Guardian]

Jitsu, because the game was just beginning, and picking something to find suspicious is often a really great starting point. Finding his joking suspicious was arbitrary, as I said.

[Guardian]

I re-read Erg0, cuz I had this creepy suspicion about him. And I liked his case on Jitsu. 129 really does seem like a back-out/turnaround. But, Oman posted that he had been joking a bit before... so I could see Jitsu reacting to that.

I find it highly unlikely that Pat or Erg0 are scum with Jitsu, in any event.

unvote vote: Jitsu

I was sympathetic with Erg0's case, and Patrick's, so I want to see where this wagon takes me.

opie remains suspicious for me.


oh: Incognito, you're voting badly. protip: unvote.

[Guardian]

Guardian, now more than a few pages ago, you didn't seem to agree with the case against me. But now you like Erg's case against me? I'd like you to explain specifically what changed your mind, please.

My mind changed, significantly? Re-reading the case made me want to vote you.

Though actually, I'm not convinced that you really believe the case on me as much as you say you do.

How much is that, anyways?

Regardless of whether that's true or not, I'm not going to crumble or crack under the pressure, because I'm innocent, and it is in the town's best interest that I not do so.

Ah, but if you were scum, you would totally crumble and crack under pressure, to help the town out?

I don't fear being in the spotlight because I have nothing to hide.

That's cool. I totally fear the spotlight. Spotlight is one step away from lynch, and me being lynched is about the worst contribution I can make for my faction.

I find it highly unlikely that Pat or Erg0 are scum with Jitsu, in any event.

I know that are right (because I am innocent), but I admit I'm curious to hear how you came to this conclusion.

Their cases on you aren't one sentences FOS's. They are long, detailed, and they have both been trying to encourage others to lynch you. BUSing you when no one else was suspicious of you with so many other potential lynch targets doesn't make sense.

[Guardian]

PEG, you forgot to unvote, so your vote didn't count, I think.

Adel makes sense.

I'd like to hear Jitsu's response to my response though. I expect him to paint me as scummy D-:.

[Guardian]

Jitsu, I'm only responding to the parts of your response that I feel you are asking me to respond to or that I want to respond to. If there's more you want, feel free to make that explicit.

Ah, but if you were scum, you would totally crumble and crack under pressure, to help the town out?

Of course not. It was merely a statement, not something designed to be a town tell. I don't know how I would react as scum, because I have no experience playing as scum (including this game).

That's just WIFOM. If not designed to be a town tell, why post it?

That's cool. I totally fear the spotlight. Spotlight is one step away from lynch, and me being lynched is about the worst contribution I can make for my faction.

I assume that by saying "my faction", you are speaking in general terms here, across games?

Yes.

You actually made a good point here, as when I do draw a scum role someday, I will need to fear the spotlight. (I am going to get an awful meta when that day comes, I think.)

I feat the spotlight as town too. Why only as scum for you? You are generally good at diffusing pressure as town? I'm bad at is, historically, sometimes I've even gotten very angry. That and convincing people of things, are my mafia-weaknesses. I'm usually right, and I'm usually town... anyways, this is neither here nor there.

I don't fear being in the spotlight because I have nothing to hide.

Maybe being in the spotlight is a step away from a lynch.

But don't construe that as meaning that I am not afraid of being lynched, because I am.

Can you help me make sense of all this? It appears contradictory.

I don't fear being in the spotlight because I have nothing to hide.I prefer not to be lynched since I am innocent, but if it is going to happen, I at least want everyone to weigh in on the matter, so that the town has good information for Day 2. I'm not giving up and accepting that as my fate though.

I'd hope not, with 2 people making a case on you and one additional person voting you because of both cases combined.

I'd like to hear Jitsu's response to my response though. I expect him to paint me as scummy D-:.

I'm puzzled why you didn't keep your expectation to yourself until after I answered so you could get a better read off my response.

Not sure why I did either. Your response to my expectation could have been telling, I think that's what my thought process was.

Some might consider this a scumtell (and is probably why some of the other pro-town players don't know what to think of you), but I'm not convinced it is a scumtell in this case.

Which players are you talking about, here?

[Guardian]

That's just WIFOM. If not designed to be a town tell, why post it?

Honestly, I don't have a good answer for this. It did not enter my mind that it was just WIFOM, and therefore I maybe shouldn't have posted it. I was just posting what I was thinking.

OK, we all do that. Slight scum tell though, for me. In my exp., scum self-refer as town more often than townies do. And you've been doing that quite a bit.

Some might consider this a scumtell (and is probably why some of the other pro-town players don't know what to think of you), but I'm not convinced it is a scumtell in this case.

Which players are you talking about, here?

Since you seem to be treating me pretty fairly, I'll do one better and expand your question to include all of the players who might think it is a tell.

Xylthixlm is the main person I had in mind. I think he is probably town.

Opie. Next on my "to do" list is to re-read him in light of recent events and see what I think.

Patrick. I'd like to see some more comments from him before I make up my mind.

Incognito. Erg0. Erg0 seems to agree with Incognito, from his comments in 242. I want to keep my opinions on them to myself for now.

Ok, dropping a big one: your post and subsequent response is a major, major scum tell for me.

I'll quote the relevant bit for emphasis:

Some might consider this a scumtell (and is probably why some of the other pro-town players don't know what to think of you)

In this phrase, you say some of the

other pro-town players

might think something about me. This implies two things: a) you know I am pro-town, and b) you know others are pro-town. You are sympathizing with me, to a small extent buddying, and in your very terminology have admitted you know that I am pro-town and you know the identities of some other pro-town players.

Only scum know who's not scum.

When I asked you who these players might be, you didn't retract it or anything, and in fact gave a detailed explanation, citing many players. You were careful to say only Xyl you *really* thought was town, the rest you were unsure... but this response isn't really sufficient for me.

The damage was done when you said that other pro-town players were suspicious of me. And not just one -- some -- many.

Knowing I'm town and knowing others are town is something that townies just wouldn't know, or say.

I believe you are scum Jitsu, and you are caught.

[Guardian]

Adel, what do you think specifically about my major point in 390?

[Guardian]

@Adel

I did read the game, Jitsu was amazing.

However, I think my point is anything but insubstantial, nor do I think it falls under the category of remarkably slim evidence.

Also, do you think Erg0 & Patrick's cases contained "remarkably slim evidence"?


Don't get me wrong, I am not defending opie in any shape or form -- at this point, if not Jitsu, opie seems

great

. I really think I am on to something with Jitsu, however.



@Jitsu:

You didn't just say "pro-town players" you said "other pro-town players". You were addressing me -- so you meant "(I think you, Guardian, are pro-town) people other than you that I believe are pro-town"?

[Guardian]

at this point, if not Jitsu, opie seems

great

Why?

I remember finding him suspicious earlier, and feeling that I was justified in doing so. He overreached, and tried to be seen as finding scum while not really being effective.

why do you think Opie is a

great

candidate?

I feel/felt really strongly about it. I see borh Matt_S-scum and Incog-scum as contingent upon/less likely than opie-scum, too.

maybe I'm forgetting something, but what else is there to the case on Opie?

Adel's case in 136 is pretty good.

I'm not defending Opie here -- in fact, I am trying to determine if I should vote for him. But I'm not quite sold on him yet. I'm willing to listen to a sales pitch.

Maybe Adel can help out there? Note: I realize I'm being suspicious of him while not doing the grunt-work.

--

I'm reading from your tone and phrasing here that you are leaning toward Guardian being town. Is that correct?

It seems she is not only leaning, but that she

knows

it:

Guardian, why are you not motivated to respond to Incognito?

I thought no one would ever ask.

I'm busy, and many of his points are correct. I've followed Adel a lot. I ask many questions. I disagree that those things are indicative of my being scum, but I can't refute the facts. Also, while I don't find his case convincing, I think it would take quite a bit of time to respond to in sufficient depth to come anywhere near refuting.

Defenses are overrated anyway. Especially since not many are convinced by Incognito, and he is "100% sure" I am scum, I don't see how it would be a valuable expenditure of my time and effort to make arguments that aren't going to change many people's minds about anything. About 3 people have an inclination I'm scum right now, and I don't think responding to Incognito's case would do much, possibly reducing the number suspicious of me to 2 people from 3.

My time is much more valuably spent trying to find scum right now.

I think he is right and that we should all support him

Also Adel is your 289 completely serious?

yes. I am all about keeping the signal to noise ratio down. If I didn't know that you were town I would probably take a different stance.

I decided not to press on this earlier, but I am interested how she "knows".

---

Pat: In general, I tend to agree... But here, I find Jitsu both buddying and asserting knowledge others are town.

[Guardian]

I decided not to press on this earlier

, but I am interested how she "knows".

Why did you decide that?

I'm even unsure if we should be pressing now -- what if it is somehow role-based?

[Guardian]

My suspicion that Adel has role based information has decreased significantly.

Why? She hasn't been very helpful since post 136 --> less pro-town.

[Guardian]

o.O

[Guardian]

Why, Adel? That seems to have come out of nowhere.

[Guardian]

I did support the opie wagon, still do, and am not interested in voting you over Jitsu, OR opie.

So I need a better explanation that.

[Guardian]

Aha -- but what if I *changed my mind*.

You're still caught, not me.

[Guardian]

So -- maybe I shouldn't have said anything/waited, any played badly?

[Guardian]

I think maybe Adel's scared of me being scum cuz I was such a gangsta in Multiball. But I'm not scum here. Move along, nothing to see.

Sorry for striking wrongly .

[Guardian]

Adel, what's my notable reaction?

=======================================

Votecount #17

Guardian - 4 (opie, Incognito, Adel, Jitsu)

opie - 3 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius)
Jitsu - 2 (Patrick, Guardian)
Xyltixlm - 1 (Matt_S)
Matt_S - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 1 (Erg0)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

[Guardian]

Thinking about the last page with a clearer mind...

Both Jitsu and Adel still seem very scummy.

Jitsu went from leaning slightly pro-town on me to finding, imo, a rather spurious reason to (OMGUS) vote me. At worst, I made a mistake in bringing up that I was confused about how Adel "knew" I was town. I don't see how Jitsu draws the conclusion that I am scum in any way.

Adel then votes me for... no reason? And doesn't explain at all how she "knows" I am town now that it has been brought into the spotlight.

I don't like their votes at all. opie's vote on me, irrc, was from his overreaching that he was found very suspicious for. opie, you still feel good about that vote?

Incog's vote on me is the only one I see as making a bit of sense. Doesn't mean he is town, but if he is scum at least he is trying to fake it well.

I need to re-read.

[Guardian]

You're going to need to be clearer. What did I not react to, and what did I over react to, and how was my reaction at all an over-reaction?

[Guardian]

opie, if I was "trying desperately to find something that he can exploit to make a case out of" why would I attack Jitsu and not you?

[Guardian]

You are premising that I am trying to use a bad case to railroad a townie.

In making this case, you also are premising that you, opie, are a townie.

If you and Jitsu are both townies, it would have been both much easier AND more consistent with my previous play to just keep my vote on you.

Why, as scum, would I make a change in stance that would both be harder for me to achieve AND appear less consistent?

PPE: Adel, care to explain why you are answering opie's questions for him and thereby defending him?

[Guardian]

I'm growing increasingly suspicious of you Adel; you hadn't mentioned Jitsu as a scum suspect at all until... that post.

And until you voted me, you'd said you were "sure I was town". I'm having a hard time figuring out what is going on in your head and how it could possibly have pro-town motivations.

[Guardian]

Why I'm not scum:

1. followed my lead early on opie

Are you saying your case was crap-logic? Was finding opie suspicious suspicious?

2. abandoned the opie wagon when it looked probable that opie would be the lynch

Yeah, I abandoned it, at least temporarily -- I thought we were a bit too narrow sighted. You disagree?

3. when I made the post stating that I know that Guardian is town, he didn't respond to it until other players did. As a townie he would've immediately challanged it. Now he is using it as evidence against me. Situational, and scummy.

I wasn't sure HOW to respond to it. Part of me wondered if you were a one way mason or some crap, some part of me wondered if you were just using game theory to point to me as "def town", and part of me wondered if you were scum. And I *did* respond to you when you universally endorsed me -- I asked you if you were serious. When you said you were, and made explicit that you somehow knew I was town, I didn't know what to do.

Adel, you love little mafia tricks, but gambits designed to get odd reactions... GET odd reactions, regardless of alignment. I'm *still* unsure if somehow you still do have information I'm town and are just probing me!

4. His inconsistant reaction to players making statements that may infer that they know others people's alignments. I have, Incognito has, and Jitsu has.

I don't understand this point so I can't respond.

5. Guardian has been scum in two of our previous games together, and I have a strong intuitive suspicion of him which is at least partially based upon experience.

And in either of those games, did you figure out I was scum? Also, in how many games in which I was town have you identified me as scum? Sharing a partial meta is more than slightly deceptive. In my experience, Adel is pretty inconsistent at determining my alignment.

[Guardian]

Adel, how about Big Love mafia?

And in Mini 455, MeMe had to beg you to hammer me, when I fake claimed cop and was counterclaimed?

[Guardian]

Also -- why not respond to the rest of my points? They are good?

[Guardian]

The rest of your points are not good, but I want to allow other players (including you scumbuddies) to throw in their two cents. I know what you are trying to do here: drown out the case against you by getting a series of wall-of-words tl;dr posts between us.

I've gone from "you know I'm town" to "other players (including your scumbuddies)" in the span of one page?

And me trying to get you to engage in conversation with me over this is a sneaky attempt to drown out your case? And you won't respond to my counterpoints?

I want not only to convince others that your case is wrong, but to convince you, if you are town, that it is wrong. And us being silent isn't going to accomplish that.

[Guardian]

unvote: vote opie

Jitsu, while wrong, seems to be trying to scumhunt.

fos: Adel

, on the other hand, seems completely off her rocker.

still need to re-read. maybe soon.

[Guardian]

Yeah. Adel's pretty crazy though. I didn't know what to make of it or how to react.

[Guardian]

bah, he's not.

don't be silly

[Guardian]

sigh.

[Guardian]

If I or opie is to claim, it should happen soon, such that we are able to find an alternative lynch should one/both of us have acceptable claims. Just throwing that out there; we have only a week.

[Guardian]

I re-read the game.

I see great justification for the wagon on opie, and for suspicion of Matt_S. I'd be happy wagoning either. Of the two, I prefer opie, because of their interactions together that make it look like Matt_S scum might follow from opie scum.

Secondarily, I also think ChaosOmega has been posting extremely minimally, and our eyes should be kept on him.

I am leaning Adel-town after re-read, for the record. She seems to be playing as she usually does as town and trying creative things to get reactions... And her cases and reasons make sense.


I probably should be less lazy and respond to Incognito's case against me, but like I've said earlier, his facts are not wrong, and his interpretation of the facts is not easily arguable. I disagree with his interpretation, and more significantly I am correct as I know my role and he doesn't, but it is not easily arguable.

opie's vote on me still seems like hangover from when I wagoned Erg0 early in the game, and that makes little sense. I also believe that his vote is on me in good part because I am a viable counter-wagon to his, at this juncture.

I feel I owe it to my faction to put up a proper defense against the rest of the suspicion against me, however, mainly Jitsu's case (and Adel's support thereof).

What I can say is this: I don't claim to playing the game perfectly (I'd have spent the time long ago to respond to Incog, I'd also have thought more carefully about Adel's claiming she knew I was town). However, the majority of your suspicion against me is that I reacted badly to a gambit (I am going to assume it was just a gambit, unless Adel says otherwise -- it seems like horrible play for her to remain voting me if she does in fact know I am town)

that was designed to generate scummy reactions

.

Granted, I'm sure Adel was hoping it would generate a certain good reaction from townies, and a certain bad one from scum, and I also grant my thinking about her statements was not particularly clear -- I was very confused, and decided just to leave it alone -- her thinking I was town was not a bad thing, so I thought I'd leave it at that.

However, I don't think the most logical explanation for my reaction is that I am scum -- I posit that it is that I encountered something new and strange in a mafia game, and didn't quite know how to deal with it. I'm not sure how/if my reaction would have been different had I been scum, but as town, I was confused, and after probing once and getting an equally confusing answer from Adel, I just dropped it.

Incognito's and opie's votes I can stand, as I think the former has marginally good reasons and the latter is incredibly scummy and is providing us with some great information about opie's motivations, but Jitsu's and Adel's votes I believe are not quite well thought out, and I believe I've offered a just as plausible if not much more plausible explanation for why I reacted the way I did.

I'll say again for emphasis: reacting in a potentially scummy or seemingly contradictory way to a gambit designed to create potentially scummy or contradictory reactions isn't a scum tell. It's a simple cause-effect.

[Guardian]

Incognito, who do you find suspicious other than me?

[Guardian]

Grrr, meant to read over posts, and not submit that. I used tabs to get to "Go" for incognito, and messed up and hit submit.

Clearly you are finding CO & Oman suspicious -- and I agree that CO needs and eye kept on. Anyone you want to mention besides them?

[Guardian]

I found myself liking the exchange had between Jitsu and Guardian and do think the case Jitsu made against Guardian makes a lot of sense. I'd love to say this politely but for lack of better terms, I feel like Guardian pulled something out of his ass by claiming that Adel had some sort of "role-based information" to determine that he's somehow town. It seems like Guardian was backtracking to me.

Like I've said, I had no idea what to think. I thought there were a few good reasons I maybe should leave it alone; looking back I probably shouldn't have.

Also, I really dislike how Guardian seems to find everyone and anyone scummy just for voicing negative opinion about him. He's gone down the entire list basically: opie, Matt_S, Incognito, Adel, Jitsu... there comes a point where that's clearly too many people to be scum all at once, and if he truly is town, he needs to realize the possibility that perhaps he's playing really badly.

Where've I said you were scum? Above and beyond that, this is obviously a mis-characterization of my stance at this point: I just made a post with a paragraph describing why I am strongly leaning Adel town right now. And where is Jitsu in my top three scum prospects? And isn't Matt_S supporting lynching opie over me? And I don't find opie scummy for voting me per se, I find him scummy for voting me because the vote seems very outdated, and not supported by... reason.

You've been making quite a bit of sense, but this last part seems... well like you said, seems a bit like you are pulling it out of your ass.

[Guardian]

Hm, so me having two posts about you, commenting in 2) on a specific outline by Adel, and in 3) by a tell I've seen work before -- are construed as me finding you scummy?

By that same standard, I'd be surprised if there are many players in the game I haven't "found scummy".

However, your whole post could have just been

I'm not talking about your current stance on players; I'm talking about the stances you've taken on players after they've voiced their negative opinions about you.

That I actually agree with, with the exception of my suspicion of you, and of Matt_S (I really can't recall Matt_S being suspicious of me, though he may have been) -- prima facia, everyone's suspicions of me, besides yours, seemed like bullshit. And I'm going to find people scummy for bullshit logic in mafia, whether they're trying to railroad me, or anyone.

opie's vote of me was for trying to get the game going, and Adel & Jitsu's vote for me were for reacting scummily to a probe designed to incite scummy reacions. Adel had 180 degree switched from saying I was def town to prob scum.

I later changed my mind -- I can see how Adel & Jitsu may have a point. But all three of them, at first glance, seemed like bullshit. And I found that scummy.

[Guardian]

I wouldn't have believed a power role... I like 80% don't believe this.

Does anyone want to try and find a new lynch in under a week? I'm going to re-read and see, but I highly doubt it.

[Guardian]

Wow, I need to head to class soon... but you're not even considering any alternatives at this point....

There's damn little he could have said in a claim to make me believe he's town, Jitsu. That's why I still support the wagon and didn't unvote.

I find this paragraph about my response to his claim to be very bullshit:

If I had said "oh wow, I REALLY believe him now" you'd have been like "OMG WTF changed stance!!" The way you are interpreting my response, I can't conceive of a way I'd have responded that would have made you say "Oh, reasonable response, points for Guardian."

In this same post, you've accused me of desperately trying to find my way out of being lynched... as if that is a scum tell. As I've said earlier, me being lynched is the worst possible contribution in the game I can make for my faction -- damn right I don't want to be lynched.



And your lack of open-minded ness is pretty appalling, you are predicating all possible suspicion of opie on the *assumption* that I am scum.

You're not even considering "oh, well if Guardian isn't scum, opie scum makes a lot more sense".

You're saying "oh, well Guardian *is* scum... now could opie possibly be scum fitting this into the information I already know (Guardian=scum)?"

I also dislike how you are piggybacking onto mine and other's suspicions of ChaosOmega -- setting up CO lynch 4 tomorrow ne1? And even then, your suspicion of CO is

predicated

on me being scum -- which is absolutely horrible play, since I'm not scum.

Minus points for Jitsu for complete closed-mindedness. I don't see a town basing that much of his game view on something he doesn't know, and is in fact incorrect about.

======================================================

Votecount #20

opie - 6 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Guardian, Xylthixlm, Adel)

Guardian - 3 (opie, Incognito, Jitsu)

Not voting - 3 (Erg0, Patrick, Matt_S)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
======================================================

[Guardian]

In class..

Yes -- I use faction because it isn't a town-tell, per-se, that I am trying to not get lynched. I'd do it as scum as well. I have grown to dislike the terminology "I owe it to the town... I am doing it for the town..." etc., implying that one's doing something is a town-tell, when it really isn't. See my discussion about this re: Jitsu's comments, earlier.

[Guardian]

=P.

[Guardian]

Clarification: There is a possibility that I don't think particularly clearly when being attacked. =P.

[Guardian]

The only other option that I see is getting a claim from Guardian. I don't know about everyone else, but I'd rather get another claim on day 1.

Why would you rather have more players claim than fewer players claim?

[Guardian]

I'm going to re-read Oman. I think I might have let him skate by in my head because I love him so much.

[Guardian]

Patrick beat us both, but he didn't use a whole post on it, and I like my phrasing better.

[Guardian]

Sarnarth'd

[Guardian]

I did some re-reading.

Of those I re-read, there is no one I want to lynch more than opie.

I am slightly less suspicious of Matt_S and more suspicious of C_O, in a vacuum. But if we are right about opie, that's erased. Oman didn't seem particularly town or scum on re-read. Odd vibes from Oman towards Matt_S and Erg0; the latter may be their friendship, both may be worth looking into later in the game if any of those are scum.

I re-read myself, and tbh I haven't made much sense in rebutting cases against me, except for opie's vote and for the meat of Jitsu's case. Oops.

[Guardian]

Erg0: another lynch is possible. I don't think it is the best course of action.

[Guardian]

Hm. I buy it, reading over your previous posts.

Xyl, why's PEG obv scum, and if he is why aren't you telling us why and advocating a gold rush?

[Guardian]

Do you advocate a stampede of votes to PEG? Or, you think PEG is scum "too" in addition to opie?

Do you have any meta experience with PEG?

[Guardian]

unvote

I did a re-read on Erg0. He mentioned Matt_S exactly once; he was mildly suspicious then, and has no read now...

Also I don't like how he is dancing around both opie & me wagons; if opie is town, there's not an insignificant chance in my eyes that Erg0's trying to be "too cute", and stay away from *both* townie wagons.

[Guardian]

This is what I mean by dancing around the wagons:

I've doen some re-evaluations now that I've got a little more time, and I've come to the conclusion that I don't support either of the current lynch options. Based on his play so far, I'd be surprised if opie isn't just what he says he is. This wagon reeks of the classic day 1 mislynch - opie's biggest mistake was putting his neck on the line by going after Guardian, and now he's become the easiest deadline lynch. Guardian isn't really giving me a scum vibe overall, though that attempt to create a false dilemma on the last page didn't help.

I mean this and subsequent naysaying. You're like: Well, I don't like the wagons. "Based on play", I find opie townish. "Overall", I find Guardian townish, maybe a little scumish though.

You're not giving great reasons for your distrust of the wagons, just pointing at them and being like "well, I don't like".


On the semantic point of "no read" vs. "iffy". If you say you are iffy about a player, that means you have conflicting opinions and have no read either way? Or does it mean something significantly different than that?

[Guardian]

I wanted to bring up my point and have Erg0 respond to it.

As for putting it back on: opie is my top choice right now, and I am as responsible as anyone for his lynch, but there are some lines of discussion people are bringing up I'd like to pan out before a lynch.

Patrick -- it amuses me how no one reads your questions when you append them to long posts. Me, PEG, now Erg0. lol.

[Guardian]

I doubt very much that this plan will survive first contact with the enemy.

If opie and Matt_S both come up scum then you can go ahead and lynch me

.

Why are you OK with this? What if you are wrong? Do you know one of them to be town? You said first contact -- that figures to be opie -- do you know opie to be town?

What is your motivation for saying this as a town member? Why are you pseudo-revealing that you aren't a power role? Why, Erg0?

HOS: Erg0

[Guardian]

1) I'm not fishing. I'm asking what possible motivation you could have to state that. Your post was pretty anti-town imo.

2) Why not just say that you highly believe they are pro-town, instead of the very WIFOM "lynch me if they are scum"?

[Guardian]

[sarcasm]I am a cop and I KNOW Erg0 is lying right now, he's mafia.

Oh snap, sorry, that was just hyperbole. I'm just kind of suspicious of him right now.[/sarcasm]

Calling it hyperbole doesn't cut it with me. I really am not liking your post. I can see how you might have made it as town, but seriously, *bad idea*.

======================================================

Votecount #23

opie - 4 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Xylthixlm)

Guardian - 3 (opie, Incognito, Jitsu)
Xylthixlm - 1 (Erg0)
ChaosOmega - 1 (Patrick)
Matt_S - 1 (Adel)

Not voting - 2 ( Matt_S, Guardian)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
======================================================

[Guardian]

That's not hyperbole, that's lying. I'm using an extreme example to demonstrate the strength of my opinion, not claiming something that I know is untrue.

Is it significant that my example was possibly imperfect?

Isn't it more significant that you said you'd be OK with being lynched if you are wrong about opie/Matt_S and are claiming that you didn't

mean

that, and that you were in fact only employing hyperbole?

[Guardian]

I didn't want your role, or want you to claim. I didn't want you to make WIFOMy "hyperbolic" comments that don't make sense for townies to make and reveal the nature of your role if you are in fact pro-town.

However, I'm suspicious of you because you, in my opinion, have

already

pseudo-claimed vanilla -- for no reason.

I can't think of a reason a townie would employ WIFOM like that, or restrict the roles they might possess by saying they'd be more valuable dead than alive.

IMO, you've pretty much revealed your role with your dumb comment that you'd rather be dead, my questions were alignment-fishing, not role fishing.

You doubly reinforced this just now:

Let's face it, if you lynch scum over my objections on days 1 and 2 then I'm clearly not being useful enough to be worth keeping around anyway.

If you were, say, a POWER ROLE, sure you would still be of a lot of use, even if your play was horrible. Your line of thinking and the solidity of the information you are revealing in responding to me right now isn't consistent with what I'd expect from a townie.

Re: my questions, specifically, I asked those questions, because I'm pretty sure you are an careless vanilla or scum, and I wanted to see how you reacted.

HOS: Erg0

I'd have stuck with the opie wagon, but maybe your wagon is better right now. The way you tried to look helpful in diverting from the two wagons smelled bad to me. Your suspicions of others seemed to be not extremely well supported, and diversions to the main event. I'm not sure if I am happier wagoning opie than you because whatever opie's alignment is, you diverting from his/my wagon with kinda insubstantial cases hints at anti-town motives from you. If opie is your buddy, you'd love it if someone latched onto your two sentences cases and diverted attention away from him, and onto someone else. If opie is town, then you poke around on some townies and maybe a buddy, and are quite happy when he or I end up being lynched.

I'd normally hate to get another player to claim day one when the first has claimed vanilla... but you've already practically claimed vanilla.

I'm going to sleep on this, since you could just be a townie who played badly (shoot, I've played badly -- THIS game), but I might support an Erg0 wagon instead of the opie one. I'd hate to move a wagon from opie-scum to Erg0-town though, and that's what I need to think about.

[Guardian]

vote: opie

I am very suspicious of Erg0, but I think opie's the better play.

Very busy until Friday.

[Guardian]

5. Guardian has been scum in two of our previous games together, and I have a strong intuitive suspicion of him which is at least partially based upon experience.

And in either of those games, did you figure out I was scum? Also, in how many games in which I was town have you identified me as scum? Sharing a partial meta is more than slightly deceptive. In my experience, Adel is pretty inconsistent at determining my alignment.

For the record, Open 59, Daytalk, which just ended, was heavy on my mind when I posted this, since I was scum and Adel was town in that game and we were PM-ing and she was trying to collaborate with me to get a townie lynched.

Two tests in less than 24 hours. I should be studying .

[Guardian]

unvote, vote: Guardian

daytalk just ended, and now I think he is scum

Well, at least you are keeping with your trend of being wrong...

[Guardian]

On a more serious note, if you might explain why you think my play there was similar to my play here, or whatnot, I might be able to refute it when I post again tomorrow. Now I'm going to log off. For real. Maybe.

[Guardian]

well if this game establishes it, for now on I'll just go against my gut when it comes to you, and them i'll be 100% right, or something.

Or you could just believe to me, and be ~75% right, and 100% right in this game .

[Guardian]

He is trying to undermine whatever authority other players might think I have in determining correctly that he is scum.

Yes, I am. Unabashedly. I love playing with you, but in terms of determining my alignment -- you're pretty bad at it.

I would hate for people to follow you in lynching me, or in being assured I was town. Both are equally silly actions.

Seriously, you'd do better to just assume I'm town and work with it.

[Guardian]

As for putting it back on: opie is my top choice right now,

and I am as responsible as anyone for his lynch

, but there are some lines of discussion people are bringing up I'd like to pan out before a lynch.

To mention that you are "as responsible as anyone for his lynch", it seems to me like you

know

that opie will appear as town once he's lynched and it seems almost like you're paving the way for your Day 2 defense for if/when this occurs.

Whatever. If I didn't say this,then someone would say "OH, but you are tryingto look less suspicious if opie is town -- so you KNOW he is town and you are trying to get out of being suspicious kekekeke".

So I'm not sure what I could have said or not said there to make you happy.

This of course assumes opie is town, which I'm not at all sold on. If he is scum, will you find me significantly less suspicious, Incognito?

[Guardian]

I've had 4, tied with opie or 1 behind, and thought I'd have to claim. I consider the wagon on me right now to be "strong". So yes.

[Guardian]

I've had 4, tied with opie or 1 behind, and thought I'd have to claim. I consider the wagon on me right now to be "strong". So yes.

I bet if an objective person were to look through all of guardian's lynchings (everytime he got the noose) he would tend to post more when he is scum relative to when he is town.

Check Big Love Mafia and 24 Mafia. I'd think the reverse is true, actually, I tend to complain more as town. In the past. I'm pretty sick of complaining though, it is bad for my emotional health.

[Guardian]

I'll explain everything tomorrow after opie hangs.

Are you confident of being around tomorrow? Why wait?

[Guardian]

I don't favor the late CO wagon over the opie wagon.

CO, are you saying you think Xyl is protecting me because we are scum together?

I look forward to your "thoughts on all the players".

[Guardian]

Incognito is objectively and non controversially, obviously not scum with me.

He could be scum, but were I scum, I agree completely with his reasoning about that above that he could not be a buddy.

[Guardian]

When you make judgements about how

you yourself

would play as scum, that's WIFOM.

Why do you believe this?

[Guardian]

Opie, I see you posting around the site. Anything to say, here?

[Guardian]

Now CO is at 5. If opie were to vote for him, he'd be at 6, more than opie. Is CO supposed to claim with 7 hours remaining? I'll be checking the thread... I'm really unsure CO lynch is the best here. I don't understand why you both feel that opie's post is an abused townie and not a given up scum.

[Guardian]

I'm here... I'll re-read after I take a shower. Really unconvinced that CO is > than opie.

[Guardian]

Hm. Upon re-read...

CO's only (serious) vote in this game was a 4th vote on opie. He didn't provide great reason for it, and has basically been riding the wagon out and not scum-hunting.

Opie, otoh, while very suspicious of me (I always see that as a scum tell >_>) seems to be trying to scum hunt.

Of note to me: strictly speaking this is neither a scum or town tell, as it is always in one's best interest to vote someone who is the competing lynch, but CO is on opie, and not vice versa. However, I find scum are always more sure to be on the other wagon than town. Also, there is a slight possibility they are scum together. I am unsure why CO would not have chosen to try and lynch me, then, though.

I don't know here, really. If opie is scum and CO town I'd feel positively ridiculous for switching... Additionally if CO is a power role. But from the standpoint of an objective re-read, it seems that:

unvote: opie

vote: ChaosOmega

is right. I sincerely hope I am not mistaken.

[Guardian]

Wow 5 minutes and a cop claim?

[Guardian]

Shit. A cop claim 9 minutes before deadline? Did you really only just show up now, or are you scum trying a last minute confusion tactic? No counterclaim from me. Anyone else? Quickly?

I sympathize with this. I am not a cop.

[Guardian]

Incog-CO scum? :\

unvote vote: opie

opie lynch > me lynch.

[Guardian]

I think CO would be better. Too late, I guess :\.

[Guardian]

Hey guys. I'm baaack.

My mind is blown. I was expecting to replace back in and try and distance with scum partners or whatever, and then self hammer.

However, I'm really a cop.

I PM'd vollkan, and -- you guessed it -- my sanity is not guaranteed . C_O investigated old me night 0, can't for the life of me say why, but he did, and he did get a guilty result.

I'm going to have to re-read this whole fucking game, I continued to read after dying, and I was like 99% sure Chaos was scum. I was wondering why you guys were dithering about and not lynching the obv obv obv scum.

Anyways, try not to lynch me before I get a chance to re-read.

Don't let someone get by with hammering me before I do.

[Guardian]

I've re-skimmed the thread, I am going to re-read in detail soon to see if my initial impressions hold up. After that, I'm going to try and describe them very clearly and carefully; from my own pre-replacing point of view you guys deserve some convincing if you're to lynch someone other than me today.

One thing I ask in the meanwhile: while I'm not sure there is much I can do to explain C_O's actions, as I am not C_O, are there major points of contention other than the fact I'm a cop (a cop with a guilty on Guardian^1, nonetheless)? If so, I'd appreciate that those be brought up -- even just saying "my thoughts in post X still stand".

About me being a cop -- I concede that it is a very odd mini normal to have three investigative roles, especially for vollkan's first. The only thing I can say is that all of them are limited, and mine may be completely ineffectual. One good reason for letting me live is that I'll be alive with another result tomorrow, unless the scum decide they want to piss away a very plausible lynch.

Anyhow, I'll try and get to that re-read, hopefully within the week.

[Guardian]

Jitsu chill out. I've just gotten in the habit of always saying try, etc., because people have the ridiculous and annoying tendency of finding you suspicious when you don't get to something when you said you would, which for me is almost always because of IRL reasons and rarely for alignment.

Stalling would be horrible play as scum here; I'm an obvious fall back lynch, and the impetus is on me to show otherwise. If I stalled to near deadline I'd expect to be lynched.

Anyways, my defense and then analysis should come today, unless things pop up.

[Guardian]

Ah forgot to say -- I agree heartily with your waiting on me and not responding to Adel. I already fear that people will say "Guardian only said X because we said Y" -- so stopping yourself from poisoning the well, so to speak, is a good thing.

[Guardian]

Before I make a post attacking people, I want to briefly respond to what Erg0 referenced as, and what I too see as, the main points about C_O being scummy. I hope they cover most of Patrick's thoughts as well, they seem to overlap nicely.

I'm not sure what I can say about C_O posting infrequently and without much substance. Those are just scummy things to do, and I can't defend them. However, someone posited that that was consistent with his scum meta -- is it inconsitent with his town meta? He might just always be a scummy lurker.

Then there is the subject of the manner in which he claimed. Really, I can't fault him for that. Checking in and claiming seems like a reasonable thing to do, as was not claiming until the last possible moment. Until a couple of hours before deadline, it seemed that he would not have to claim -- and no one, especially power roles, should claim unless they have to. I don't think that is a legitimate reason to find me suspicious. I myself, as a Watcher, tried hard not to claim, and made sure I was on near deadline in case I'd have had to.

As for why he left the game and needed replacement -- I don't know the answer. I think the mod said the timer on his prod expired, right? His being replaced might have little to do with the in game situation, considering that. I don't think it is fair to assume that he left because he was being attacked. Even if he left because he was being attacked, I've seen players do that as town before. I don't think his exit is nearly as suspicious as his play day 1.

Lastly, in terms of the plausibility of my role... well I find it fairly implausible, and I'm not going to lie about that. If I didn't get the PM from vollkan, I'd still be very, very skeptical of it myself. I hope my town-ness shines through and/or I convince you there are better options. All I can say is that I am a cop, and that a major benefit of leaving me around is that I'm a power role that won't likely be night killed; if I am insane (guilty=innocent, and vice versa), I might be useful just yet.

[Guardian]

Alright, I've looked at the thread more closely, and it has reaffirmed my confidence in my top three suspects. I've spent some time refining and condensing this post, so I hope my reasoning is clear. To save you from scrolling down, my suspects are Matt_S, Adel, and Oman. I find Matt_S the most scummy of the bunch by a fair margin, but they all are above everyone else for me. I'm not tied to lynching him, if you guys feel that one of the others is better, but I do think he is definitely the most scummy. Really I'm not tied to the prospect of lynching or not lynching anyone though; show me a good case and I'll show you a vote.

Matt_S

My reason for being suspicious of Matt_S are that he has been largely skulking around and doing things that are traditional tells for newer players. His breadbasket of FoS's in post 14, for example, strikes me as someone who doesn't have a good reason to be suspicious of any of those players looking to see which suspicion will catch on. 18, also, fits this pattern; he retracts his FoSes that didn't catch, and tries a new tact. These are a few more examples that fit into a larger pattern of play that seems to be consensus driven and geared towards generating suspicion of everyone, going with the flow, and not wanting to offend anyone into being suspicious of him. I encourage others to read Matt_S's posts; there is nothing so nearly as explicit as Adel's madness, but I think the pattern does indicate ulterior motives, and very strongly so.

Adel

Adel is a tricky case. I haven't had many tries at discerning her alignment; like she said, almost every game I've been in with her I've been scum, I guess she's seen my scum hunting skills from reading other games I am in, if that isn't another gambit. I have her second and not over and above first because ignoring meta is silly, but for any player other than Adel she would be my #1 right now. Adel is messed up, but some of her play just doesn't seem like something a townie would do. I

believed

her about opie, and that was just a lie to eliminate a player of her choosing. That disturbs me greatly. As has been brought up, her waving back and forth an voting me or opie is largely inconsistent with her claimed plan to just lynch opie. Also, as Jitsu I believe brought up, she hasn't claimed what, if any, explicit information she's derived from this play. That troubles me, too, in terms of believing her. Even if she is telling the truth, her action seems, at first glance, to be morelikely to be scum motivated than town motivated. Picking what turned out to be a pro-town player and lynching him day one, ignoring any reasoning or cases, seems like an anti-town thing to do. We have no guarantee she picked at random, or that she is telling the truth -- both troubling propositions.

Also, don't forget her "I know Guardian is town" gambit that she backed down from. It almost ended up forcing me to claim yesterday, and possibly ended up getting me killed, reading back through my own posts it is apparent to me that I was a power role. And wasn't that gambit supposed to be a scum hunting trick? How well did that work out? If it was a scum hunting trick, and she was trying to use it to determine my alignment and found me scummy day one, how is she really being truthful about the opie lynch?

In addition, I have a couple of problems with her play today. First, her switch to Oman and back to C_O distinctly disturbs me, it looks like she is scum hunting and then allows her to switch back to the obvious town-lynch (me). Now, I replace in, and she suddenly is willing to let me slide for a day? Is it really because she thinks I can find scum, or is it rather because she is afraid of calling for votes on me when I'm here to defend rather than C_O? Also, she's greatly shifted her stance on my role and Oman. Look at the contrast between 116, where she finds Oman-scum and me-scum to be probably mutually exclusive (25% chance), and 128, where she says explicitly we are definitely not.

The last major thing that has troubled me about Adel's play is her fixation with the vig. vs. SK thing. It makes me wonder if even Adel, the master of gambits and deceit, is suffering from a guilty conscience. Thinking about her as an SK is particularly troubling considering her random selection of a player other than herself to lynch day one. From an SK's perspective, any lynch other than them day one is a great deal, and her ploy, even if she is telling the truth about

what

she was doing, could be an elaborate way to absolve herself of all responsibility for her actions.

I'm a bit baffled about Adel. I really agree with Xyl to a large extent; allowing all players to get away with playing like Adel has played this game would be absolutely horrible for the meta. I am more of a pragmatist than an idealist than Xyl -- I think we should take the ridiculous meta into account -- but again, only to an extent. Especially when, as Adel has in my opinion, actively hurt the town with her gambits, she definitely merits consideration for being lynched.

Oman

My suspicion of Oman comes from his "follow Adel" attitude and general lack of substance day 1, in addition to some posts indicative of scum motivation today. He blindly followed Adel in lynching opie day 1, and just now, though he claims to not have been, seemed to have been trying to deflect some blame to her. Also, he says he went with the opie wagon because he was getting town reads off Adel; because he trusted her. Trusting that she is town doesn't equate to trusting that she is right about opie being scum. Even if you did trust her implicitly, there was no room for disagreement, Oman? His welcome post to me "hi guardian, die guardian" isn't indicative to me of someone interested in scum hunting, it is indicative to me of someone who'd love to get this day over with right about

now

, so attention doesn't shift back to him. Like with Matt_S, I encourage people to read through his posts and see if they notice the same things I notice (click on their names at the "Display posts from previous:" box at the bottom of the page).

vote: Matt_S

FOS: Adel, Oman

If anything is unclear, or you'd like me to try and find and analyze more examples for Matt_S and Oman, let me know. Any questions you might have of me, I am here to answer them.

[Guardian]

For all the posts that have ensued following my two, precious little has been said analytically about my defense (Patrick commented, notably), and almost nothing has been said analytically about my cases.

Many say they find the case on Matt_S unpersuasive. Why? Did you actually read through his posts when you said that? Did you even go back and look at the dichtomy between 14 and 18 that I referenced? Or are you lazy/scum, stuck in the Guardian (or Guardian/Oman) frame of reference, and unwilling to think critically about the game?

Likewise, no one has commented substantively about my cases on Adel or Oman. Some have said "looks good" "looks bad" or whatever, but no real thought is going into this. I spent quite a bit of time thinking about who the most probable scum were, and refining the post where I made the cases to make them as concise and easy to understand as possible. I ask that you inspect them and comment on them, and not play based on feelings about "who should be lynch candidates". I've made it clear that I'm willing to try and address any questions you might have, and make my reasoning clearer or more transparent. Yet almost no one has reacted to my posts by asking me questions, instead commenting about me and Adel and Oman as if I weren't in the room.

I believe I'm at -2 now (though everyone else is saying -1, so I am a bit worried), and there really hasn't been much discussion at all of the defense and arguments I've presented, and few have tried to interact with me to get a read on me or allow me to explain what I believe more clearly. I'm very disappointed in that.

---

Patrick, wouldn't a scumbag have as much if not more incentive to defend himself from lynch than a cop? I'm not sure I understand your assumption.

Incognito, why is the lynch today me? Why not address my defense and cases, instead of taking the easy route and calling me 'obvscum'? You vote Adel, then switch back. Why?

Matt_S, you say I am the safer lynch than Adel. Why? Because I'm voting you? Why vote Adel and then immediately vote me?

I can't say I find Adel's play through the last few pages very townlike. I'm sure she'll call it information gathering, or something. Adel, if you think Oman should be the lynch (or me), then why vote Matt_S with me? Why not say "Guardian, that's nice, but I think Oman should be the lynch if not you." Why vote with me? And you say you need convincing about Matt_S from me -- what do you think of my case? Have you, at least, read through his posts as I've asked?

Oman's 976 is completely content less, and his not addressing my arguments at all, not even commenting on them, not even pretending to, is disturbing, and fits in perfectly with what I've said about how he'd love for me to just roll over and die without my thoughts on the game being considered, possibly allowing focus to shift back to him.

Erg0, you say Oman is probably scum, but are voting me anyways and not addressing the case I've made. Why? Why are you not interested in lynching Matt_S? Your 986 makes a lot of sense re: Adel, and shows that both her assumption is flawed and her approach is wrong if that is indeed the method she is persuing. Despite realizing this and the other inconsistencies she has, you think I'm better?

[Guardian]

First,

unvote

, while we discuss.

Thank you for the discussion, this is progress. I'm not asking you to suddenly adopt all my positions, I'm asking you to engage in dialog with me. Thank you for this post.

Likewise, no one has commented substantively about my cases on Adel or Oman. Some have said "looks good" "looks bad" or whatever, but no real thought is going into this.

This is bogus. I had already considered the possibility of Oman being scum many posts ago and outlined my suspicions very thoroughly. I certainly didn't say anything like "looks good" or "looks bad"; I gave pretty clear reasons for why I felt Oman is scum, and I had my vote on him for the majority of Day 2. Look through my posting history to read through the case I outlined against him and you'll notice that quite contrary to what you've said, I gave pretty substantial reason for voting for Oman, as did Patrick.

That's great -- but no one commented on

my cases

is what I am saying. You and Patrick indeed did comment on Oman earlier. Addressing my case and saying "yeah, that looks good and it agrees with my thoughts in post X" would have been helpful for my remembering that you'd made your positions on Oman clear earlier.

I believe I'm at -2 now (though everyone else is saying -1, so I am a bit worried), and there really hasn't been much discussion at all of the defense and arguments I've presented, and few have tried to interact with me to get a read on me or allow me to explain what I believe more clearly. I'm very disappointed in that.

No offense, Guardian, but you're replacing a guy who claimed Cop right at the end of Day 1 and lurked during Day 2. He reasoned that his lurking during Day 1 was due to the fact that he was the cop and even after that information got out into the open he STILL lurked. It's kinda hard to trust someone who does that especially since he's active on the site still. You yourself even mentioned from your very opening post "why aren't they lynching the obvobvobv scum". For you to now mention everything you're mentioning seems like a huge appeal to emotion, and I can't help but contemplate the fact that you may be attempting some confusion tactic to help out your new alignment (although I do agree with your Oman suspicions).

I'm not trying to use a confusion tactic... but of course I am trying to help out my alignment. Your diction seems weird to me; remove the words confusion tactic and new, and your sentence is "I can't help but contemplate the fact that you may be attempting some tactic to help out your alignment". I sure am attempting a tactic to help out my alignment; making cases, trying to get people to get around the suspicion of me, etc. I'm not sure how using a tactic to decrease suspicion of me reflects poorly on my alignment. I'm not trying to use any confusion tactic -- ask any questions you might have of me, and I'll try and clear up any inclarities and remove any confusion.

Incognito, why is the lynch today me? Why not address my defense and cases, instead of taking the easy route and calling me 'obvscum'? You vote Adel, then switch back. Why?

I addressed your case against Matt_S, and I mentioned my feelings about it. I wasn't lazy like you claim; I

did

look at his posts in isolation and just didn't get the same feeling you did.

I'm happy you did; if I missed you saying explicitly that you did that, I apologize; from my reading over the last few pages, I got the bad feeling that it might have been the case that no one had read through him.

And I didn't switch back. If you were paying attention, you'd realize that my vote was on Oman for the whole of Day 2. I voted for CO initially but then began to feel like Oman might be the better lynch.

Indeed, I got mixed up there.

Then CO went lurky... it's kinda hard to accept a replacement's posts under those circumstances.

To address this and partly your thoughts earlier in your post -- I definitely empathize with your suspicion. I'm trying to bring points up that might allow people to get around their suspicion of me, because I know my alignment. Had I replaced in for some other role, I'd have had quite a hard time believing that C_O was town. But I replaced into his role, know he was/I am town, and it is my job to try and convince you guys that that's the truth.

Anyway, I'm fairly confident that Oman is scum, and I could go for his lynch (as I've mentioned numerous times). We might be able to test out Guardian's cop claim tomorrow if anything, assuming we lynch correctly today or some type of cross-kill thing happens tonight.

That's very a reasonable stance; I'm going to think long and hard about who to investigate tonight if I get the chance; maybe I'm just paranoid it will be meaningless, but maybe I'm insane and I'll nail someone.

Therefore I'll go back to my original vote.

Vote: Oman

Could you explain in a bit more detail why you're not getting the vibe from Matt_S and are from Oman? I'll definitely go back and re-read your and Patrick's posts; as of now I haven't read them particularly carefully, I've only read Matt_S, Oman, Adel with an extremely peeled back eye.

[Guardian]

Fair enough, I suppose I haven't explicitly responded to your posts.

Thanks for talking now.

Frankly, yes I am closed-minded about today's lynch. There is almost certainly nothing you can say that will make me decide not to lynch you. The meaning behind CO's actions is basically down to personal interpretation, and you didn't raise any points there that I hadn't already considered. There is a possibility that he is a paranoid cop caught in a bad situation, but I've modded him both as a cop and as scum, and he looks more like scum to me here. He was still somewhat lurky but more ready to put his views forward and be proactive as town. As scum he was wagonny and withdrawn, as he was here.

I'm not sure there's anything I can say to respond when you make it clear that there's nothing I can say.

Matt_S is on my second tier of suspicion, as is Adel. I'm still pretty sold on the you/Oman/Xyl combo, though. I see what you're saying about them, but I just can't see either of them as a good lynch today when we've got such a strong candidate ahead of them.

Which them are you talking about? Either implies two, I am confused.

The problem you have is that your role is entirely unverifiable and you will probably not be nightkilled whether you're a cop or scum. You present this as a positive, but it's only a positive if we actually believe you.

If you really are town, your cases will get a serious review tomorrow. As it stands, I'm not going to take direction from the man with his neck in the noose.

Hm. I'm really town, why not give my cases a serious review today, at least, before you lynch me? What can doing so hurt?

As I said earlier, we don't have the luxury of a mislynch today, and I believe that you represent our best chance of avoiding that scenario.

Well, I agree with you, we may not have the luxury of a mislynch -- but that in and of itself is not a reason to lynch me. From my point of view, our notbeing able to give up a mislynch makes it all the more critical that we

not

lynch me today.

The fact that you said you'd investigated your former self on "night 0" doesn't help either.

Well, I'm not saying that, that's whay C_O

did

. I guess when opie turned up scum he found me most suspicious and decided to investigate. I disagree with that cop strategy, but that's what he did.

Fair enough, I suppose I haven't explicitly responded to your posts.

If your decision is to remain close minded, I'm not sure what I can say to change that. But you haven't explicitly responded to my cases or my defense, and like I said I can't understand what perspective you might be coming from where doing so would be harmful.

[Guardian]

Patrick, wouldn't a scumbag have as much if not more incentive to defend himself from lynch than a cop? I'm not sure I understand your assumption.

I think a protown powerole would be more willing to post in this situation than a scum. If ChaosOmega is town, I think he'd want to be on record with his suspicions at the very least. I could see scum clamming up if they think that they won't be able to talk their way out of trouble, and that by continuing the act they might just leave links to scumbuddies. A cop would have no such disincentive. I've seen doomed scum stop posting in the past, and I know that in his position, I'd be far more likely to post as town than as scum. I also feel, although it may be somewhat naive, that ChaosOmega as cop would realise that if we mislynch him we'd be in dire straits, and that would motivate him to try harder to defend himself. I say it may be naive, because I'm not sure if he's the kind of player that would feel any sense of duty to the town as an innocent.

I'm not sure if C_O is a "sense of duty" kind of guy. I can see what you mean about scum clamming up and town wanting to leave their suspicions, and your suspicion is not completely unjustified. However, don't scum always have an incentive to defend themselves? There's usually just 3 scum in a mini normal, maybe 2 if there is an SK. Scum have a huge incentive to not just roll over and die.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I can definitely see your perspective, but want to show you that it isn't the only perspective, and in this case isn't the correct one. In theory, C_O should have not lurked day 1 or day 2, made lots of cases, not been replaced, and been an A+ townie. His lackings in that regard are regrettable, but him being lurker-scum isn't the only plausible interpretation of his play here.

[Guardian]

However, don't scum always have an incentive to defend themselves? There's usually just 3 scum in a mini normal, maybe 2 if there is an SK. Scum have a huge incentive to not just roll over and die.

If he's scum, he may have decided that he had no chance of escaping, and could not further help his team by talking. So he shut up. If he's town, that could never be true, he could always help his team more by talking. I'm not saying clamming up would necessarily be the best play for scum, just that it seems more likely to come from scum than town in this situation.

I don't think that analysis is at all unreasonable, just inaccurate. :\

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I can definitely see your perspective, but want to show you that it isn't the only perspective, and in this case isn't the correct one. In theory, C_O should have not lurked day 1 or day 2, made lots of cases, not been replaced, and been an A+ townie. His lackings in that regard are regrettable, but him being lurker-scum isn't the only plausible interpretation of his play here.

I agree that it's not the only plausible explanation. It's possible that ChaosOmega has simply played a dreadful game as town, and done alot of scummy looking things, happens to have a claim that doesn't seem to fit into the setup, and simply decided he couldn't be bothered anymore. If that is the case, I'll give him a mouthful postgame, even though I doubt he'll even read it, let alone care. What I'm saying is, I think his actions and claim can be better explained by him being scum. The argument you've made here could be made as an argument against lynching anyone. Unless they're 100% confirmed scum, any lynch candidate could just be a townie who made mistakes and hasn't played in the best possible way.

I see your point here; I am trying to get you to look at this other possibility. I don't think I can argue that his actions look more likely to come from town than from scum -- some of his actions were just indefensible -- it is hard as a replacement, because I'm responsible for some things I had no control over. In my defense I'm trying to defend plays I'd never have made, and maybe the best I can do is have you see how it *could* have come from a townie, and look at my subsequent play and see how that is more likely to have come from a townie. As for the role not fitting into the setup... again I don't really disagree with you. Just, it is my role. (shrug)

[Guardian]

I'm not sure there's anything I can say to respond when you make it clear that there's nothing I can say.

Well what

could

you say?

Nothing, according to you. That's my problem, your mind is made up, and it shouldn't be.

All you can do is try to interpret CO's actions, which I've already assessed as extremely scummy. I thought this through at the start of the day, and unless you can come up with a line of argument that nobody has considered to this point, I'm not going to be changing my mind. You've got your interpretation of CO's motives, and I've got mine.

The thing is, my interpretation comes with the accuracy of knowing my role is town. Yours comes from the incorrect (or lying) perception that you think my role is scum.

Hm. I'm really town, why not give my cases a serious review today, at least, before you lynch me? What can doing so hurt?

It can create confusion and distraction, for one.

Distraction? What exactly are they going to distract from? And how is that bad for the game? And confusion? How is looking through logical cases and responding logically going to cause confusion? I'm not sure how you've presented a serious downside here.

I've read your cases, but I'm not going to vote for them today, simple as that.

Closed-minded-ness is not pro-town.

Well, I agree with you, we may not have the luxury of a mislynch -- but that in and of itself is not a reason to lynch me. From my point of view, our notbeing able to give up a mislynch makes it all the more critical that we

not

lynch me today.

The use of the phrase "in and of itself" is completely misplaced. This is hardly the only reason I want to lynch you.

Well wait, Erg0. You're bringing it up as a reason to lynch me, in addition to all your other reasons. I'm trying to get you to realize that this is not a reason to lynch me at all, any more than it is a reason to always "try to lynch scum". This reasoning says "It is important to lynch scum, and I think you are scum, so we'd better be sure to lynch you". That premises that I'm scum. Don't get stuck in the mud and closed-minded about your stance on me to the extent you have to make up shoddy, superfluous stuff like this to continue to justify it. It is easy for everyone to do, and I don't blame you for it if you are indeed town and not just trying to pile arguments on, but I want you to realize that this portion of your reasoning for voting for me shouldn't factor in at all.

Well, I'm not saying that, that's whay C_O

did

. I guess when opie turned up scum he found me most suspicious and decided to investigate. I disagree with that cop strategy, but that's what he did.

You missed my point - CO would have investigated you night 1, not night 0.

I sure am totally missing the point here. There wasn't a night 0 in this agme. C_O investigated me last night, night 1. What are you talking a bout?

Frankly, I think it's a waste of my time at this juncture.

Well, you're incorrect about that.

I don't need to refute your cases on other players in order to vote for you.

Yeah, but you do need to look at this with an open mind if you want to have a good shot at winning the game.*

*unless you are anti-town and just want me lynched, and that's something I am skeptical of. So, I ask that you open your eyes.

[Guardian]

Oman's recent post makes me want to headdesk :\. If he is pro-town and playing this way, shame on him.

Adel, respond:

I can't say I find Adel's play through the last few pages very townlike. I'm sure she'll call it information gathering, or something. Adel, if you think Oman should be the lynch (or me), then why vote Matt_S with me? Why not say "Guardian, that's nice, but I think Oman should be the lynch if not you." Why vote with me? And you say you need convincing about Matt_S from me -- what do you think of my case? Have you, at least, read through his posts as I've asked?

[Guardian]

Matt_S, you say I am the safer lynch than Adel. Why? Because I'm voting you? Why vote Adel and then immediately vote me?

Because it seems more plausible for you to be scum than for Adel. Adel seemed to be having a crazy plan, and I wanted to see where she was going before a big lynch wagon. Of course, I was thinking that Xylthixlm was the third vote on Adel, but it seems I miscounted somewhere.

Why does it seem more plausible? Adel's admittedly picked a townie at random and railroaded them to a lynch. That is more plausibly town than a non-sane cop?

I repeat:

Why vote Adel and then immediately vote me?

Also, your thoughts on Oman?

[Guardian]

I'm not sure what I can say about C_O posting infrequently and without much substance. Those are just scummy things to do, and I can't defend them. However, someone posited that that was consistent with his scum meta -- is it inconsitent with his town meta? He might just always be a scummy lurker.

You could not possibly have read the meta before you said this.

Nope -- why would I have? I don't need to determine ym own alignment.

I went back to reread how the lynch and claim went down. ChaosOmega waited until he was sure he'd be lynched, which was shortly after Guardian voted for him 20 minutes before deadline in 691. I think that's mostly a null tell. Neither cop nor scum want to claim before it's necessary, but I find it odd that ChaosOmega specifically mentioned in 696 that he should have come on earlier to claim. I have a slightly harder time believing that he didn't care enough as a cop to get on just a bit earlier.

Oh, come on now. "He didn't care enough?" Getting on 10 minutes earlier or later is a sign of caring?

And given that his life was spared, I find it really odd that he didn't apologize, thank the town for sparing him, or somehow vow to be more active and help the town on Day 2.

I find this odd too, he's placed me in a pretty insurmountable position.

If I played awful as a power role on Day 2, I would be doing whatever I could to make amends Day 2.

Day 1, then day 2, you mean? That's great that you would do it, Mr. upstanding community member . C_O, otoh...

As for why he left the game and needed replacement -- I don't know the answer. I think the mod said the timer on his prod expired, right? His being replaced might have little to do with the in game situation, considering that. I don't think it is fair to assume that he left because he was being attacked. Even if he left because he was being attacked, I've seen players do that as town before. I don't think his exit is nearly as suspicious as his play day 1.

Who asked you about why he left and needed replacement? Who said his exit was suspicious? Who is assuming that he left because he was being attacked? Nobody said it in this thread, at least.

First of all, Oman did say something, in 907. Second of all, it was an obvious thing that would be brought up as an extension of a suspicion of his lurking.

The fact that you are bringing this up makes me think you might have a guilty conscience.

=\ it makes me think I'm a rationally thinking being who wants to defend myself from attacks before they snowball.

But, now that you bring it up, I checked up on this. ChaosOmega's last post in this game was 726, on Tue Mar 4. He was prodded Fri Mar 7 and replaced Mon Mar 10. ChaosOmega posted five times to MafiaScum between his prod and when he was replaced. Clearly, his reason for not posting here was not because he was away. I don't know what role he has in his other current games, but if I were a cop that nearly got lynched on Day 1 and already had

three

votes on me Day 2, I would not be posting in other games while ignoring this one.

Again, frowny face at C_O. I can't defend that action.

Lastly, in terms of the plausibility of my role... well I find it fairly implausible, and I'm not going to lie about that. If I didn't get the PM from vollkan, I'd still be very, very skeptical of it myself. I hope my town-ness shines through and/or I convince you there are better options. All I can say is that I am a cop, and that a major benefit of leaving me around is that I'm a power role that won't likely be night killed; if I am insane (guilty=innocent, and vice versa), I might be useful just yet.

Oh, and why won't you likely be NKed? Even if you are damaged goods at this point, if you really are a cop like you claim, you could still be useful to the town, and that in itself is enough of a reason for someone to off you.

There is no way any anti-town group in their right mind would kill me tonight if I am not lynched, and you know that. It is far too easy an argument "Why are you still alive Guardian? Oh, and your second result is X? SCUM." Why are you even making this argument. Jitsu?

Anyways, try not to lynch me before I get a chance to re-read.
Don't let someone get by with hammering me before I do.

This sounds to me like you are already trying to throw suspicion on whomever would hammer you. The hammer vote almost always carries suspicion with it even if it's for hammering scum. I can't help but wonder why you felt the need to remind people of that.

Because with the current level of suspicion on me, someone might explain away tomorrow "oh, but gosh, C_O was so scummy, I just had to hammer" and that might ahve been accepted. I did not want that to happen.

[Guardian]

Adel, what the hell do you mean? Do you want us to apply Occam's razor in some way? Do you really expect us to read anything more than the title of that PDF?

[Guardian]

Patrick, I've largely forgotten why I found Erg0 suspicious as Guardian^1, and skimming nothing stuck out so I didn't re-read him in detail.

I don't like the 'Guardian or Oman' mentality. I can't say I understand why people read the posts of Matt_S I'm referencing, understand what I'm saying, and then disagree with my interpretation. Adel and Oman have both been suspicious, and I'm

willing

to lynch them... but so many have said they are committed to not lynching Matt_S today, and I am troubled by this.

======================================================

Votecount #42

Guardian - 3 (Erg0, Oman, Matt_S)

Matt_S - 2 (Guardian, Adel)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Adel - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 2 (Patrick, Jitsu, )

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Guardian]

Oman, vollkan didn't count your vote on xyl since you didn't unvote, so go ahead and do that . I'm all for votes being on other players.

[Guardian]

Adel, what the hell do you mean? Do you want us to apply Occam's razor in some way? Do you really expect us to read anything more than the title of that PDF?

respond plz?

Xyl, you've been very focused on Adel and not commented on much of anything else, and that troubles me because I've seen myself and others do the exact same thing as scum before. Of me, Oman, Matt_S, who do you find most suspicious and why?

Patrick, Oman is pretty much different every time I play with him. Here he's far lurkier than I'm used to seeing from him. I think we've played together so much now that I've come around full circle and gone back to applying generalised scumtells rather than trying to meta him, and based on that I do find him scummy here.

I still want to lynch Guardian, btw.

I've read this post and gone full circle -- and I see a big wtf disconnect between finding Oman scummy and not being willing to discuss or consider or do anything at all involving talking about something other than lynching me today.

[Guardian]

Adel, what the hell do you mean? Do you want us to apply Occam's razor in some way? Do you really expect us to read anything more than the title of that PDF?

respond plz?

[Guardian]

I figure I'll just post what I am thinking at this point:

Matt_S lynch looks decreasingly unlikely, with so many players saying they are unconvinced by it, or even committed to not lynching him.

If not Matt_S, I'd by far most likely want to lynch Adel or Oman.

If going after Adel:
Guardian[Erg0, Adel, Matt_S, Oman]
Adel[Guardian, Xylthixlm]
? [Jitsu, Patrick, Incognito]

Seems most likely, with Oman trending to vote me. That would mean that to lynch Adel, Jitsu, Patrick, and Incognito would have to be willing to vote Adel over me, or I'd have to convince Erg0 (seemingly impossible...), Adel (impossible), Matt_S (?), or Oman (seems unlikely).

If going after Oman:
Guardian[Erg0, Oman, Matt_S, Xylthixlm]
Oman[Guardian, Adel, Incognito]
? [Jitsu, Patrick]

Seems most likely. That would mean that to lynch Oman, Jitsu and Patrick would have to be willing to vote Oman over me, or I'd have to convince Erg0 (seemingly impossible...), Oman (impossible), Matt_S (?), or Xylthixlm (seems unlikely).

So, Patrick, Jitsu... and ironically, Matt_S -- what can I do to convince you I'm not the best lynch for today? Jitsu seems to be trying to make up his mind in a reasonable fashion, if he just needs more time right now that's OK. Matt_S and Patrick seem to have other things higher on their attention, and I'd like their attention focused here.

I'd hate to be lynched as town in this game after so adroitly avoiding it yesterday. If I am incorrect in my assumptions or descriptions about, let me know, especially if some of you are not so anti-Matt_S lynch as I'd though .

---

Preview-edit: WTF? Adel, Xyl...? WTF!? Adel can't respond to my question, but can claim SK? WTF...

[Guardian]

Xyl, let's be clear: I want Matt_S lynched. Failing that, I want Adel or Oman lynched. That's been my stance since I re-read. I think I've succeeded to a large extent in controlling the discussion to focus on those three players and me, and I hope that leads to one of them, my top three suspects, being lynched.

However, if a fourth opportunity presented itself, sure I'd go for it. I know I am town. I don't know anyone else's alignment. Not wanting to be lynched should not hurt my case,

especially because I am a cop

. No shit, I want someone other than me lynched.

Why would blatantly attempting to get anyone but me lynched "not help my case"? Wouldn't it... help it? If I were scum, wouldn't I care about my buddies not being lynched over me, since presumably they'd look much more town like and be more likely to survive until endgame?

[Guardian]

I find it not unlikely that Adel is actually an SK who decided that claiming at this juncture would be advantageous to her. That being said, if she is an SK, do we lynch her?

Adel, you still never responded to my post/question.

[Guardian]

So you're mafia, not an SK?

unvote vote: Adel

Like I said, I don't see Matt_S being lynched as a high possibility. Despite the difference in obviousness between Adel vs. Matt_S, I still think Matt_S is better and would be happy to shift back if we have the votes.

However, Adel's play has been obviously inexcusable. She's lied like, 10 times, now. I was just waiting to see when this whole "play nice with Guardian because I believe him now that he replaced in" thing would show up to be a lie. And here it is. Adel's play has been capricious in terms of who she wants to lynch, and full of deceit. Adel's seriously messed, but even if you don't agree with me on Matt_S's apparent scummy motivations, I'm sure you can see how Adel being a townie is incompatible with her actions. To give further credence to my theory -- look at the appeal of a Matt_S // Adel pairing. Adel says 'Matt_S is conditionally scummy day 1... ooops, opie is town... Matt_S can't be scum... can't remember why though'.

C_O's play was very bad, and I understand the suspicion, really. But worse than Adel? More likely to be scum than Matt_S, or Adel, or Oman? Come now.

FWIW: I'm pretty sure if I get one more vote Adel will definitely hammer. So if you vote me, know that you are, in effect, hammering.

[Guardian]

I now want to lynch Adel more than Matt_S.

C_O, was suspicious, and I grant that.
But Adel is in her own league, and (possibly unlike Matt_S and Oman) it is completely obvious, and uncontroversially true. I can't see her having pro-town motivations anymore. I just can't.

Incognito asked for a *really* strange turn of events. If Adel's recent actions don't qualify, I'm not sure what would.

You've all acknowledged that I've not been scummy independently, and have done my best to undo the damage C_O has done to this role. I would be very sad if I were lynched today, with all the great options available, Adel at the forefront.

[Guardian]

I can no longer see you as both being a rational human being, which I know to be true, and a player of town alignment, which I do not know to be true.

Faced with two mutually exclusive options, one of which I know to be true and one of which I am unsure about, I conclude that the one I am unsure about is false, and that you are not a player of town alignment.

You've lied, tricked, misled, tried to lynch townies, etc. too many times and too frequently to possibly think you are helping the town with your actions. You're trying to get town to believe in the too scummy to be scum logical fallacy, and this game is your little playground to see if your idea will work. It should not.

[Guardian]

DAMNIT. DAMNIT.

I am at lynch -2 right now. I've decided to claim again, since I don't currently have the votes to orchestrate a non-me lynch. I've been trying to scum hunt. Trying to give a plausible reason to lynch someone other than Chaos_Omega.

Anything. But no, alas, it hasn't worked. Because C_O was too scummy. The thing is, you guys weren't wrong. I wasn't wrong to want him dead yesterday. He was scummy because he was scum. He claimed to target me last night because he did. Bastard.

Well, here goes nothing: I am your friendly neighborhood Serial Killer.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we have a Serial Killer in the game, and his name is me.

PLEASE unvote and think before "haha claimed scum quick hammer lulz"

:

If you lynch me, you have 7 alive tomorrow, and either 2 or 3 mafia, not at all a good place to be in.

If you don't lynch me, I will:

• continue to try and scumhunt, as I've been doing.
  
• Either kill whomever the town wants me to, or no kill, to make sure I am still in your good graces tomorrow.
  
• Possibly draw the scum NK. I may or may not be NK immune. Suck on that, scum.

Basically, I am an vigilante that you have complete control over but that you have to eventually lynch in order to win.

This game was balanced, in my view, to be about equal for all three factions, scum, SK, town. The town lost two investigative roles, and can't have much left.

It is probably like (1 power role, 4 townies, 3 mafia, 1 SK) right now.

If you want to lynch the SK, and ahve 3 mafia, 3 townies, 1 power role tomorrow, be my guest.

But I think it is better for me and for the town for us to try and lynch scum.

Seriously, optimal play here is not to lynch me.

It benefits me to claim, because we may end up in a 1-1-1 scenario, in which we no-lynch, and in which I may or may not be unNKable. Anything is better for me than being lynched today.

I really do find Matt_S, Adel, Oman scummy. I want scum dead almost just as much as you guys do. Please, don't lynch me.

Discuss. .

[Guardian]

He targeted Guardian^1 to kill Guardian^1 last night.

[Guardian]

Incognito, I'm fairly sure C_O was going for the non-sane cop thing, since he was already locked into cop.

[Guardian]

Yes. This is what I am asserting.

[Guardian]

sigh.

I legitimately think it is not optimal play to lynch me here.

Guardian^1 is rooting for you to lynch mafia, not Guardian^2^SK.

Not lynching me lets me be NK'd or have the scum waste a NK, and gives you another chance to lynch scum. Lynch me and you'll likely be at lylo tomorrow, and have to lynch scum 3 days straight to pull it out.

[Guardian]

Think of it this way:

Why would I claim SK if I didn't legitimately think a rational town would not lynch me?

[Guardian]

Actually, now that I think about it, Guardian, if you're truly the Serial Killer, why did you lie from the start? Why didn't you just enter the game and claim Serial Killer instead of continuing to try and deceive us with Chaos_Omega's false cop-claim if you truly wanted to place the town's best intentions ahead of your own?

I'm not pro-town. It would have been much more in my best interests had we gone to night having lynched someone else and no one knowing I was an SK, something I believed was a legitimate possibility. I saw the cookie crumbling in the other direction, and decided that claiming and hoping you guys see the logic in letting me live was the best idea.

Incognito, truthfully, I assume the role I am given, and I'll be trying for a win. If at a point that deviates from what helps the town, I'll go for it. However, two things are true:
1) I need to eliminate some mafia to win.
2) Not trying to eliminate them quickly, and according to the town's wishes, will just get me lynched tomorrow. So yeah, if you want to lynch me tomorrow, I could really understand that, I'm a 100% anti-town lynch, and I can't really be held accountable then as much as I can be now. But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. For *tonight*, I *can't* backstab the town, because then there would be no *hope* of me being spared tomorrow. Whatever the town wants me to do with my kill, I'll do.

Seeing as how I don't need to try to act not scummy anymore,

unvote

.

Adel I think will vote with me, even if she is scum and I vote a buddy of hers. That's a great deal, from my POV. However, I think she really might be the best chance of a mafia lynch today, a goal that's absolutely critical. I don't want to be in a 3-3-1 scenario tomorrow any more than townies do. I'm going to re-read (again), and really try hard to ascertain what the most probable mafia member lynch is.

I'm honestly baffled by the suggestion that I'm mafia claiming SK. That just seems like such a huge stretch to me. I really don't know how to respond to that; I'm just not.

Really, the people who are voting/thinking highly of voting me and want me lynched immediately (e.g. Erg0, Oman, Patrick) -- that's actually a slight scum tell. The mafia must be absolutely writhing right now about me possibly not getting lynched, and would love to just hammer and get me dead. Food for thought^.

[Guardian]

Wow, note the similarity between Adel's rationale in her post and that of the last paragraph of mine.

Adel, we may only infrequently get the same alignment, but that line of thought from you is encouraging to me in that we

might

actually share a common goal here, of lynching and killing mafia .

[Guardian]

I'm pretty accurate in all my games. but i dont think "accuracy" meta matters.
whatever, this is for y'all to decide, not me. I have no incentive to tell the truth about my meta.
----


Adel, you place high demands, but I think I'm up to the challenge. Anyways, I'm glad you and others are talking in the conext of not ylnching me today, I'll work from there .

I think [Oman, Erg0, Matt_S] is a good place to start looking for a mafiate or three. Erg0 just missed being in my top 3 (yeah I lied about that earlier to Patrick, to seem like I wasn't trying to cast suspicion everywhere ).

Oman, reasons stated, behavior re: me.
Erg0, yesterday's suspicion + behavior re: me and C_O. Eager for 0 discussion --> lynch.
Matt_S, previously stated, and the "me too" unvote.

Adel I think I don't want to tackle today, she's in 4th though. I'm internally debating who I think is most likely, I'll let you know who and why when I figure it out.

[Guardian]

Thanks, I thought it was pretty awesome too.

The yesterday case was my posts 86-93.

The new part, I am referring to the entity 'me & C_O'. Not old me.

As for where you acted as if you were not interested in discussion today, it happened right around where you said that responding to me would be a waste of your time and you weren't interested in discussing any other lynch candidates.

Being suspicious of the SK is a null tell. Not wanting to consider any other possible options / close mindedness is le scummy.

You were way too eager to lynch me, before you knew I was the SK. Even now, when multiple people, all of whom *are not on my team* (unless you think that all them are my SK-buddies.... ) are saying it makes sense for town + me to go after scum today, you attack that reasoning and insist that I be lynched.

[Guardian]

Think of it this way:

Why would I claim SK if I didn't legitimately think a rational town would not lynch me?

This is why we're not lynching me Erg0.

Because it doesn't make sense. I claimed my true role, because while it greatly disadvantages me, it does_not_make_sense for town to lynch an SK today. It just does_not. Trying to ignore arguments to the contrary is misguided, and yes, scummy.

You counter: oh, but you have been spouting WIFOM before you claimed! No shit, dude. I'm anti-town and anti-mafia. I am not on your team, and I'm not trying to be honest and a good 'lil townie.

However, and this is the key part, that I think you are ignoring, or otherwise you can't get through your head, is that all townies and me both

need

to get rid of mafia members ASAP. I, temporarily at least, share the goals of the town.

So lynching me is not the best town strategy, and significantly hurts the town as it forgoes the opportunity for us to lynch mafia today, and for me to NK mafia. Lynching the SK, is not pro-town at this point. It is just not, and it is rather trivially obvious that this is so.

Incognito -- Erg0 presents the *worst case* if you don't lynch me, lylo with an SK running amok. An SK that will both be a target for mafia NKs, and attempting to NK mafia.

The only possible case -- the *BEST* case if you do lynch me -- is lylo for three straight days starting tomorrow.

The *BEST* and only case in lynching me is about equivalent to the *WORST* case in not lynching me.

Now, if you look at the *BEST* case in not lynching me, that's we lynch scum today, and scum kill me and I kill scum tonight, and you have 6 alive and 1 mafioso left tomorrow.

It generates far more expected utility for the town to lynch the scummiest non me player today than to lynch me.

======================================================

Votecount #46

Guardian - 3 (Erg0,Oman, Incognito)

Not voting - 6 (Patrick, Jitsu, Xylthixlm, Guardian, Matt_S, Adel)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Guardian]

I'm honestly baffled by the suggestion that I'm mafia claiming SK. That just seems like such a huge stretch to me. I really don't know how to respond to that; I'm just not.

Why is it such a stretch? You can't think of a single argument, so you just use this rhetoric? I want you to explain clearly why you can't possibly be mafia doing this. Don't even try to dodge it, because it sticks out a mile when you try and do that.

Pretty much, I can't think of any possible argument to make. When I claimed, I hadn't conceived of the possibility that mafia might ever claim to be an SK in any scenario. That thought was not on my mind, I was thinking how, in my scenario, to salvage being lynched today. I'm just not mafia.

Really, the people who are voting/thinking highly of voting me and want me lynched immediately (e.g. Erg0, Oman, Patrick) -- that's actually a slight scum tell. The mafia must be absolutely writhing right now about me possibly not getting lynched, and would love to just hammer and get me dead. Food for thought^.

Actually, I'm not voting you, and don't want you lynched immediately. I am holding off, because Incognito mentioned some analysis of Adel he wants to post, and if you're at lynch-1, you could conceivably self hammer.

No, I couldn't actually. I'd then lose the game.

I'd like the people who are defending Guardian to address either my arguments about it or Erg0's arguments, which have some overlap.

Let's be clear, no one's defending me, their just realizing that the rational play is to not lynch me today.

In particular, I want someone to explain why they believe Guardian is telling the truth about being an SK, because some people seem to be glazing right over that.

Okay, this really is the most frustrating bullshit ever. I'm a freaking SK. I figured out that it made sense to claim my role, and now multiple people are bringing up

Oh, but what if he

really

is

mafia

claiming SK

. Give me a break, people. I figured out, as SK, how to benefit myself and the town *by claiming SK*. Don't mess that up for me and the town by WIFOMing yourself to death about how I could possibly be mafia.

I think Guardian is mafia, probably with Oman and Xylthixlm.

Other than crass paranoia... why? The impetus on you is to show how it is a plausible scenario that I'm mafia claiming SK, and at least nearing the likelihood that I'm SK claiming SK. Trying to lynch me off of parania that I'm some godlike mafia player who realized, as mafia, that he needed to claim SK... I mean, wtf, really...

[Guardian]

@Guardian:

I've given it more thought and I came to the realization that if you're the SK, it's actually in your best interest to not hit scum tonight and to instead hit town. I think that you

know

this but are choosing to try and present the best case scenario anyway. My thought is scum will not likely target you tonight since there is the possibility of you being un-nightkillable. So if we assume a three scum set-up and do happen to lynch scum today and you hit town tonight, we'll be left with the scenario that Erg0 had written:

If he hits town we're at 3/1/2, which is probable LyLo.

which pretty much guarantees your survival. You've already mentioned that you're assuming the role of SK and gunning for your own survival to win for your own faction so I'm sorry but I can't buy your "If you let me live, I promise to hit scum tonight" claim.

Legitimate point. Counter: If I don't do exactly what town tells me to do tonight, promise to lynch me. Promise to lynch me even if it means a town loss. This is something you guys should do and need to do, and I'm presenting it, because only if you do it should you keep me alive.

What you probably want me to do is no kill tonight, just because of the numbers. Lynch mafia: 2/1/5. NK, 2/1/4. Unless you are super sure I can kill mafia tonight (and I'm not), you want to say:

"Guardian, you're a bad person. Only very, very bad people are SKs. Therefore, we shall punish you if you don't do exactly as we say with your NK. Even if it means a town loss, it will mean an SK loss as well, so Guardian, you better damn well do what we say, or we will ensure that you lose, even if it means we lose."

Presented with that threat (that you should be making), I *have* to do what you say.

And I can think of legitimate reasons for mafia to claim SK at this juncture as well.

Now that we're considering that, I can see it. But I hadn't before I claimed. (shrug).

[Guardian]

End of story, I guess. I'm an SK.

I don't think there is an 'argument' I can make to prove that.

[Guardian]

I really feel like either the people who want to lynch me or scum, or that this is an extreme case of pearls before swine; I've claimed SK to allow the town to avoid lynching me and have a much better chance of winning, yet multiple people seem determined to lynch me, mostly with the reasoning "oh he is lying mafia claiming sk."

I can't argue for that. But I'm not mafia claiming SK. I can see why mafia might do that, but I hadn't even thought of that. I feel like even if I somehow were to refute that, people would invent another reason that it would be good to lynch me. If townies are doing this, it seems like cognitive dissonance to me; you *want* to lynch me because you *feel* I am bad. No matter the reasons that I provide, you *want* to lynch me so you'll comeup with reasons for doing so. Le sigh.

[Guardian]

If the town could trust the SK, and that's a very, very, very big IF, a temporary alliance between the SK and town could shut the mafia out of the game.

Jitsu, no reply to the social contract/threat the town should make of me? That is how you can trust me. Optimal play for me is to avoid being lynched tomorrow. If you make the credible threat of lyching me tomorrow if I don't play nice, then I will have to play nice. It's win for me, since that is a way you can keep me alive, and it is win for you, since that is a way you can 'trust' me.

This leads to an interesting strategy: if Guardian is lying, and the real SK were to claim, the town could potentially offer an alliance to the SK.

Guardian is lying.

I am the real SK. Alliance now, plz?

The Mafia really want the SK dead. If the Mafia know that Guardian is telling the truth and is the SK, one of them could claim Mafia and thus out one of their members in exchange for the town lynching Guardian-SK. The town then only has to deal with 2 days of LYLO and the mafia get rid of the pesky SK.

I think you mean a mafioso could claim SK, in exchange. Yes, they could try that. I encourage them to.

[Guardian]

Your game tree is flawed by the way. If we lynch mafia, you can (and should...)threaten me into making a no kill, resulting in
4-1-2* or 5-2*.

[Guardian]

Also, 1-1-1 is a town win... unless I am UNnkable. ^_^.

[Guardian]

Your tree similarly ignores 3-1-3 / 4-3 if we lynch town today, one of the major advantages of trying to lynch mafia instead of me.

[Guardian]

The town really has limited/no control over the SK's actions, so I don't see the point of planning things out to that level of detail.

I'd be taking a very different stance as town, but if you guys want to let me run free, go for it .

Ultimately, the SK will do whatever s/he feels is the best way to get to the endgame. How much weight do town threats have over the SK anyway? If the SK can manipulate the game into a 3-1-2 situation tonight (which is very possible), the town threat carries no weight because lynching the SK at that point would result in a town loss

It is all about credible threat. Credible threats are a good meta policy. Maybe I'm crazy. From your POV maybe I'm lying. But I don't see how you can't threaten me to play nice.

How is 1-1-1 a town win again?

Town says that if someone votes them, they'll vote back, giving the win to the other player, and votes no lynch. Mafia and me are forced to no lynch. We kill each other*.

*Unless there are shenanigans that prevent this.

[Guardian]

Your tree similarly ignores 3-1-3 / 4-3 if we lynch town today, one of the major advantages of trying to lynch mafia instead of me.

If we lynch town today, the town is hosed and needs to pray for the SK to nail a mafioso tonight to save the game.

This assumes I am confident enough that a) I'll hit mafia and b) I won't be lynched after doing so. It is better for me to No Kill in that scenario. This is all about what I said earlier about the threat you should make of me/social contract.

If we lynch you, this scenario cannot happen since you are certainly scum of some sort. If we try to lynch someone other than you, this situation can happen. I totally don't follow your logic here.

see above.

[Guardian]

"Guardian, you're a bad person. Only very, very bad people are SKs. Therefore, we shall punish you if you don't do exactly as we say with your NK. Even if it means a town loss, it will mean an SK loss as well, so Guardian, you better damn well do what we say, or we will ensure that you lose, even if it means we lose."

Presented with that threat (that you should be making), I *have* to do what you say.

My post 1155 is the solution here.

[Guardian]

I'm tending to think it is Oman too.

I don't really fear a mafia quicklynch of Oman if he's not, so:

vote: Oman

======================================================

Votecount #47

Guardian - 2 (Erg0,Oman)

Oman - 1 (Guardian)

Not voting - 6 (Patrick, Jitsu, Xylthixlm, Matt_S, Incognito, Adel)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Guardian]

I'm not going to say one way or another if I can be NK'd at this time.

There is no scenario where the town *cannot* lynch me. This is an iterated prisoner's dilemma. Round 1 is today and tonight.

If you cooperate by not lynching me, I cooperate by not NKing.

If you cooperate and I defect, and NK, you defect tomorrow, and lynch me, because you credibly threaten to do so. I can't dick you over because of a credible threat. This seems not that complicated.

[Guardian]

I think Jitsu just doesn't get it. :\

[Guardian]

Jitsu, it is not advantageous for me to defect, cuz then you can still kill me...

it's called 'credible threat'. O.O

You also assume that I can 'defect and kill townies' at will; I could even if I chose to defect, which I wouldnt cuz its suboptimal play, i might try to hit townie and hit sucm.

[Guardian]

Jitsu, is she?

[Guardian]

Matt_S needs to stop lurking too.

Adel, vote Oman?

[Guardian]

Xyl is defending not lynching me much better than I could. Thanks Xyl .

[Guardian]

Odd. K. Good.

[Guardian]

I am confused where Adel voted Oman.

I saw here "unvote, Oman" in bold, but where was the vote? That was why I got confused, it is odd for me to count that as a vote.

[Guardian]

Also, 46 would appear to be wrong now, too. Thanks for clearing that up vollkan.

======================================================

Votecount #48

Guardian - 2 (Erg0,Oman)

Oman - 1 (Guardian)

Not voting - 6 (Patrick, Jitsu, Xylthixlm, Matt_S, Incognito, Adel)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Guardian]

Xyl brought up the amazingly valid point I missed, Erg0 -- If I am not the SK, then who made the Guardian^1 kill? I'm claiming to have done so, and no vig, or other SK, or lying mafia, or anyone, has come forward to be like "uh no, I shot Guardian^1".

If I have responsibility for that kill, I'm a killing role independent of whomever killed peg (presumably mafia).

So, either I'm some lying vig who fake claimed cop, or I'm SK.

[Guardian]

My view:

C_O was really hoping he wouldn't have to claim, and decided to really quickly claim something that:

a) would be immediately believed for the 10 minutes til lynch
b) wouldn't be 100% sure to draw a NK.
c) would be very plausibly pro-town, and an OK role to be 'stuck' too. Little did he know there was a watcher and tracker.

[Guardian]

I didn't even bring that point up, Xyl did. I'm trying to out a non-existent vig using a point I didn't even think of making until Xyl made it for me? That's why I'm not an SK?

Brilliant

.

You so totally made sense there, and got me

.[/sarcasm]

---

This goes back to my 1159.

Cognitive dissonance, scum, and pearls before swine are the main three reasons people are trying to lynch me.

[Guardian]

OMG. WHy do you want to be in 4-3 tomorrow? I don't want TWO losses from one game, please, thanks!

[Guardian]

This is infuriating. I make like, the best SK play ever in the given situation, and you guys come up with convoluted bullshit about how I might not

really

be the SK and are tryn'a lynch me for it.

Idiocy.

[Guardian]

Adel, this just goes to show, if you assumed I was telling the truth instead of trying to figure out if I'm lying, you'd be right like 75% of the time instead of the current 20% of the time...

Unless you're scum scumz here, then nice play. But seriously, Adel..

[Guardian]

How about your push on Guardian^1 all day yesterday Incog? That was brilliant, too, eh?

"LYNCH GUARDIAN OBVVV SCUMZ"

If I didn't know better I'd think you were a vig. I was like 90% sure you were a dumb vig who killed me until I replaced in.

[Guardian]

CO only had to be investigation immune to want to claim "Cop".
There may be a vig or a quack-doctor (either is just as probable as a sk)

No, seeing as they have 0 chance, and I have 100.

You've given me scummy vibes since you claimed SK.

I explcitiyl said i was going to try and stop being not scummy... This sentence is ridiculous.

Adel, I still think you're probably scum.

[Guardian]

Anyways, since I hope I don't lose 2 times, my cases and suspicions are legitimate, I'd lynch Oman, Matt_S, Adel, Erg0, in order probably. Gl town, you need it, especially since in lynching me you are demonstrating the deductive reasoning of a toothpick.

[Guardian]

Yeah. Btw, I'm inv immune and NK immune.

No reason for no full disclosure here.

[Guardian]

Adel, why does me being NK and inv immune make you want to bus Oman all of a sudden?

[Guardian]

Erg0, why do you continue to ignore 1155?

[Guardian]

Credible threat. It should happen. It is how we can work together... This seems trivially true to me. It's iterated prisoner's dilemma, we both have to cooperate for optimal benefit.

Even if you for some reason are unconvinced... I am. I am not going to go against the town's wishes tonight, because you should lynch me if I do.

[Guardian]

You're starting to convince me .

[Guardian]

I think this credible threat is a good meta strategy.

But, well then....

You guys will just have to make up your own mind whether having an SK around is good.

Just know that I am an SK, and make your decisions based on that.

[Guardian]

So, assuming 1 mafia 2 townies dead tomorrow:

3-2-1

1 mafia, 2 townie dead.

1-1-1

and I win.

Is the rational play really to lynch me? That can't be .

4-3 the town is just screwed.


Yeah, the rational play is for me *not to play optimally* so you guys *don't lynch me*.

Just like I've been saying. By 'promising' to play nice, I *AM* playing optimally, because only that allows you to keep me alive, rationally.

It is a freaking iterated prisoner's dilemma.

Town cooperates, I cooperate, scum is disadvantaged.

We lynch town today, I'll try and NK scum.

We lynch scum today, I no kill, or try and NK scum, at town's discretion.

It is an IPD where you have the opportunity to punish me should I defect.

AHA -- AHA I am a genius.
if we make it to 1-1-1, you lynch me to punish me for having defected. Only if I cooperate, does the town not lynch me in 1-1-1.

You DO have a way of getting back at me. So we CAN cooperate.

IPD.

So, can we lynch scum now?

[Guardian]

The basic problem is that a threat which involves the town committing suicide just to teach you a lesson is not, and can never be, credible.

At 1-1-1, the simulated conclusion if I defect, town can't win -- and my fate would be in the town's hands. The town then defects, and both town and me lose.

I can't win unless I cooperate with the town! So you can force me to cooperate. Yay!

[Guardian]

Once again, lynching you in 1-1-1 is town suicide. Going to no-lynch is the only option in that situation.

I am unNK able. If you get to 1-1-1, you've lost, and then you punish me by making me lose.

The point is that if you don't play the way we want you to we *can't* lynch you without costing ourselves the game. Basically, once we hit LyLo (which you can induce with your kill tonight, regardless of our lynch today) you can do whatever you want and we can't touch you. I'm fairly sure you already know this.

NO, if you get to 1-1-1, you've lost, and you lynch me. I have to not let you get there, because if we do get there, you return my defection and I lose.

If we don't lynch you today then we have no further power over your actions unless you decide to help us out of the goodness of your heart. You're expecting us to believe that you'll willingly sacrifice yourself to help us win, when there's clearly an option available to you that would give you a chance of winning. How gullible do you think we are?

Untrue, untrue, untrue. See above.

[Guardian]

PS, if I am not unNKable, or may be lying whatever, the scum can try and NK me. And your problem is still solved.

I'm right!

[Guardian]

No, new and improved lynch order:

Adel, Oman, Matt_S.

Erg0 -- living through today is in it for me. Death later is better than death now.

Adel can't possibly be pro-town here.

unvote vote: Adel

[Guardian]

Honestly, Adel *cannot possibly* be pro-town. If you think Adel is pro-town, you're wrong. If you let me live through today, and we lynch someone other than Adel who shows up town, I'm killing Adel, unless town has a much, much better suggestion.

[Guardian]

Wooh, I won!
Aw... I lost...

Patrick, you're forgiven for killing me. I guess ^_^.

Day 2, I knew 100% C_O was mafia. I probably should have self-hammered at lynch minus 1

When Patrick hammered, I had a post typed out saying to NK Patrick, but vollkan locked the thread amazingly fast.

I'm very confused about the rationale behind not killing Patrick; he obviously was the vig from his hammer.

And then not killing him last night was just absurd. .

Well, good game guys. Town played better, town won.

[Guardian]

btw vollkan, great job mod-ing.

You were really ocd about keeping up with the game, and that makes for a great mod!

Truly a good team effort by the town; no one person stood out too much, at least from my pov. Well done all.

1) Was the setup balanced? Yeah. IMO Slightly favoring scum if anything.
2) I basically came up with my nightkill MOs on a whim. As in, there was nothing systematic about them; it was just me trying to have fun with the deaths. Was that appropriate? Yeah, as long as you make that clear before hand.
3) Vote-counts. Did my system of having the top-of-page counts and the first page collection work well? Yeah. Definitely. If I weren't lazy I'd do that in games I mod'd, and would love for it in all games .
4) Anything else? Naw dude well mod'd. Role PMs first post, some rules I have in my games I find work better than yours, but overall nothing major 'tall.