Mini 550: KSFV: Game Over

[thinktank]

Random generator says 3? 3 it is.

vote: Rosso Carne

[thinktank]

Well we can test Greasy Spot's claim can't we? He says he can't vote so if he does make a vote, it won't show up in the votecount, correct? so if he make him make a vote and ask for a votecount and his vote shows up then we know he's lying.

[thinktank]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if it were a jester gambit?

[thinktank]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if it were a jester gambit?

Not particularly.

I can think of better ways to get lynched and without it being quite so obvious...

Lol that's not what I meant. I meant that it'd would be kind of ironic if the town thinking he was a jester role, kept him alive and he actually turned to be scum. I agree with you that if he were jester there would be better ways of getting lynched and not making it that painfully obvious. The fact that he's already made 3 role claims on the day the game opens is quite contradictory to the that logic, which is what leads me to think that he may not necessarily be a jester but rather scum.

[thinktank]

that's your new name mr gnome it all...

It's hardly new... Check my joined date. People have been shortening it to just gnome since my first game.

I'm so newb just making a joke

I support sensfan's vote. However, I want to see his reason. Ryan in my eyes has responded enough. Until you present the evidence against him.

Why would you support something you don;t the know the reason behind? If you support it why aren't you calling out ryan on it? and what exactly are you calling out if you don't know why exactly you agree with sensefan? And if you're calling out ryan on something he has done, then why are you telling him not to talk? If you feel like he is scum then he should defend himself, but if you feel he should not then you must be certain that he is, in which case why aren't you voting for him? Your statement does not fly, it just wreaks of scummyness. It is a scum tactic to hide behind other people's opinions so they don't have to justify their own.

FoS: aioqwe

[thinktank]

Lol Greasy spot, just lol. What is that your 5th claim in 3 days? I've lost count. It seems to me like there are three possibilities,

1) You are the jester and intentionally trying to get lynched which may be why you're posting so little.

2) you're playing a jester gambit when you're actually scum.

3) You're a townie but a terrible one at that cause you're not helping town, only causing confusion.

Of the fears that I have of you beign a jester are someone unreasonable just based on statistics as others have claiemd as well. Which leads me to believe that you are either scum or just a bad townie. either way you're not helping town so i suggest perhaps you may want to start contributing relevant stuff before you get wagoned.

[thinktank]

The GS has been playing I doubt he'd crack under a L-1 but its still a theory worth testing out because his claims are getting annoying. I doubt it will work but I definitely agree that its a theory worth testing out.

unvote

vote: greasy Spot

wanna talk yet GS?

[thinktank]

Lol Greasy spot, just lol. What is that your 5th claim in 3 days? I've lost count. It seems to me like there are three possibilities,

1) You are the jester and intentionally trying to get lynched which may be why you're posting so little.

2) you're playing a jester gambit when you're actually scum.

3) You're a townie but a terrible one at that cause you're not helping town, only causing confusion.

Of the fears that I have of you beign a jester are someone unreasonable just based on statistics as others have claiemd as well. Which leads me to believe that you are either scum or just a bad townie. either way you're not helping town so i suggest perhaps you may want to start contributing relevant stuff before you get wagoned.

I didn't jump wagons or pile on the wagon. I was about to start it soon, someone just beat me to it. I was waiting for a response from GS but since he deosnt seem to be responding adding pressure should do the trick.

[thinktank]

What does being vigged mean?

[thinktank]

Don't go mass claims especially when its a closed setup. Its just a bad idea and leads to more headaches while leaving the town worse of 99% of the time. And its probably a bad idea to be trying to decipher GS;s role claims, they could mean a variety of different things and the fact that he just keeps claiming is not helping. I say we need more pressure! The real conflict of ideas here is GS is most likely scum or a power role (he could be a townie but hed be the worst townie ever) and hes not responding to any comments. We need more pressure! because we can't lynch someone without having a really certain idea if that person is scum, like if GS turns out to be a jester, I'm not going to be happy. Perhaps he will crack, more pressure and votes are needed to gather more information!

[thinktank]

vIQleS and Unity, simply ignore my dice rolling post earlier.

ignoring GS

thats just a shitty PR and hes probably town.

So Rosso, what would you like done with GS than?

he should be vigged.

Rosso Carne, first you think Greasy Spot is town, then you want him vigged. That's scummy to suggest vigging someone who you think is town.

Major FOS Rosso Carne

that was a response to what should be DONE with him.

he shoudlnt be lynched.

but right now i think hes town with a shitty PR. maybe its outsmartin the mod, but this setup has wackiness in it. I am supporting a semi-claim because of my role and the danger this town is in. Any experienced player should know what im breadcrumbing at.

What good would a mass claim do if we don't know the setup? It is just a really bad idea, I'm sorry; It is very very unlikely the town will be better off. If our speculation is correct about GS and he is claiming to give information, there seem to be a good deal of power roles which means that both sides have alot of firepower and it becomes next to useless to roleclaim. Why are you so bent on claiming? If you want to claim that's up to you, but what danger is the town in exactly? I can't support a mass claim unless there are dire circumstances considering its a closed setup, I don't know who would.

Unvote

I will be angry if GS turns out to be scum but it does seem that he has PR and not just being idiotic.

[thinktank]

I am John Michael Kane. I watch people but nobody sees me because I don't exist.

Is he talking about the mod?

[thinktank]

Mass claims aren't going to help because what happens when everyone claims townie? That being said there's no reason not to believe Rosso Carne's claim because as someone said he was only on two votes when he made the claim which makes me think he is either trying to pull a fast one or more likely that he actually has something really important to do. No one claims this early in day one, not with something as especially ridiculous as his claim. I suggest we just play the game with the cult in mind and just look for suspicious looking players keeping in mind the possibility of the recruiter as well as mafia.

[thinktank]

I think we really need to start hunting scum. GS seems to have some sort of power role, although he could just be faking, but we can't solely become obsessed with his posts. Town needs to get back on track. Lets get things started.

vote: aioqwe

[thinktank]

Not to play the meta but Ryan always plays the way he does regardless of whether he is town or scum. I've seen him come up town and scum based under the same evidence that you have given so I suggest getting better evidence to lynch him because right now you're voting for his play style rather than his actions which is not right.

[thinktank]

Lynching unsurely like this just for the possibility that Ryan is scum and to possibly pin down others is NOT a good reason at all to vote. If you feel someone is scumm,y declare the arguments, if you are certain someone is scum vote for them. DON"T use people as tools because it is very anti-town. Especially after what Rosso said about a cult, we have to play carefully and lynch only who we're sure of scummyness to a certain degree.

FOS: Joubert

[thinktank]

re-reading-ish

rosso carne, what was this stuff about cult that you know?

im a cultie cop. i inv'd unity last night, as i thought his actions were quite cult-leader-n00B-esque.

i think the fact that theres a cult is counteracted by the 3 killing groups at night. kinda random unless theres crossfire, but I'm not here to comment on the fairness of the netup (yet)

So what were the results of the search? or are you not ready to disclose that info yet?

[thinktank]

Lol, this situation seems oddly familiar. Sorry for the dumb comment before btw, it was late and I was feeling sick and not reading correctly... Alright, well, it's kinda hard to defend against no argument but, meh.

[thinktank]

Alright Viqles, Lets get this game rolling again. This one is right back to you aioqwe, take it as an OMGUS or a random, whatever causes conversation!

vote: aioqwe

[thinktank]

Viqles, I understand that questioning is important but if RC is fake claiming, then whats the use claiming day 1? I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at with this line of questioning.

[thinktank]

Ok, just popping in to say, i havent read the game. But i have read the OP. And i've nailed us a

guaranteed

scum.

Vote: Rosso Carne

Last night we had 3 NK's. One was clearly a Vig, the flavour for which is pretty obvious. 1 was a standard mafia group, of 2/3 members. and 1 was an SK. Now i modded Chinese New Year Mafia a little while back. It had 2 mafia, 1 SK, and a decent shower of protown power roles.

There is absolutely no F***ing way there is a cult in this game.

Which means Rosso has been lying from his very first post.

Confirm Vote: Rosso Carne

BM

You gave reason as to why there was a vig based on the flavour, but other than GS being "kicked out", the other two NK's flavour seemed fairly similar (torn up, stuffed full of straw). Besides your own personal experience is there any reason to assume that there is a SK because you're argument falls if the assumption you've made on experience becomes false. I agree that a CULT is very unlikely because chances are there are as many 3 mafia groups. Perhaps 2 f there is a vig and perhaps 1 if there is a vig and an SK. The town can't afford to make another mistake cause then if the pattern follows we'll be down to 4 people at which point if we've lynched the wrong person then its over.

[thinktank]

There seem to be an awful lot of power roles in this game considering there are prolly 2-4 scum, maybe a vig 4 and maybe SK as well as the fact that everyone NKed last night had a power role. A cult isn't really something to be worried of because Culties take control of vanillas, the power of the cult is significantly reduced by this limiting factor (unless in this game the cult can hijack people with Power Roles as well). Coinciding with that fact, this would make RC's role prolly the most useless power role and damn well impossible to prove or disprove. Which increasingly means that his claim is probably fake.

unvote

[thinktank]

Cult is not reasonable in this set up, especially a pro town one considering we have a "claimed" cult cop. Considering there seem to be 2 anti-town NKers a cult seems HIGHLY improbable especially in a game with this many power roles. If indeed you are a cult cop and there isn't a cult (which there likely isn't) then you have a pretty useless role.

Vote: Rosso Carne

Time to claim. Well claim something viable.

[thinktank]

Yea, its twilight. Rosso has been lynched, we're just waiting for the mod. The day is over.

[thinktank]

It seems highly improbable that if there are indeed two groups that BOTH of them got blocked unless they targeted the same person because that would imply 2 doctor/night action blockers and both of them getting their protections right. It seems likely that there are two groups because a group of 2 mafia and an SK does not seem to warrant the amount of supposed power roles in this game ( a tracker, nervous cop, probably a vig and probably a doctor of some sort). There are most likely either 2 groups of mafia with 2 members each, or 2 groups AND an SK.

[thinktank]

This is hardly a LyLo. Even if we do accidentally lynch town tonight, we most likely have 1 -2 protection roles as well as the probability of there being a vig. Theres a very good probability that the town does not lose by tomorrow. A mass claim is not viable, and is not at all necessary especially considering we don't know possibly two protection roles. A Mass claim should only be done in worst case scenario because it generally backfires on the town..

FoS: SensFan

We're quite far away from a LyLo and pushing for a massclaim is a terrible move.

[thinktank]

I think we need to mass claim, since we could be in LyLo.

Assuming 1 Mafia 1 SK 1 Vig:

1/1/4 -> Lynch Town - 1/1/3 -> Double Nightkills on Town 1/1/1 (Town loses)

Yes, I see the math, but the assumptions you've made make the case seem like what its not. Firstly, you're completing skipping out on the possibility of a role protector and what you've given is a worse case scenario. You're pushing for a massclaim because you believe we could be in a LyLO. a LyLo is Lynch or Lose, which means if the town does not kill scum that day its an auto lose for town no matter what, NOT based on just a somewhat likely worst case scenario. You've completely ignored the fact that if there are 3 pro-townies going into the night then it is probable that someone will be saved not to mention the probability of a cross kill between the SK and the mafia, nor the prbabiltiy that both target the same person and a protector blocks the kill. We are not in a Lylo by any means and pushing that only causes unneccessary chaos among the town, not to mention how much chaos would be caused by an unwarranted massclaim. This is NOT a LyLo.

[thinktank]

The reason why I'm emphasizing that its a worst case scenario is because I don't want a mass claim because mass claims should only be utilized in a worst case scenario, its fine to be prepared for a worst case scenario but we aren't in a LyLo or a known worst case scenario so theres no reason for a massclaim. Thats all that I was stating. Ofcourse we don't want to lynch pro-town players but thats true in ALL scenarios not just a worst case.

[thinktank]

BM, you may not be scum but that doesn't stop you from being the SK. As it stands I see no fault in Viqles logic and highly doubt his claim to be false because he honestly has nothing to gain. if he falsely claims and you are town, the SK and mafia take down 2 more people, theres a good chance that there will be atleast one crosskill and then the town lynches Viqles tomorrow morning, all this is ignoring the possible vig and other power roles.

BM got anything to say before I lay a vote?

[thinktank]

See you in another game.

As MC Hammer as well the riders from Warcraft would say, " It's Hammer Time!"

Vote: Battle Mage

[thinktank]

Hey guys,
Sorry for the long absence but I'm back and I'll do a readthrough for tomorrow (im still really jet lagged)

[thinktank]

No lynch sounds good right about now. theres 4 of us, atleast 2 scum. If there is a vig, there was a "kicked out" kill last night nor was the vigilante killed by scum unless someone had a Dual role or something. that means that probability wise it seems best to go with a no lynch. If there are more than 2 total scum the town seems screwed no matter what so it doesnt really matter what we do.

vote: No lynch

[thinktank]

A no lynch is the best bet right now. If we lynch wrong we lose, unless somehow the two remaining mafia/sk cross kill which is unlikely. if we leave it to the night kill theres 4 of us, think about it. Either the anti-twon groups cross kill, in which case the town wins. worst case scenario they kill both remaning town players, in which case they still dont win. or one kills town and one kills the other mafia, in which case its still a tie. I urge if there is a vig to not use the NK because it can really screw this game over if done incorrectly and so far the vig really hasn't been effective. so if we no lynch we either win or tie.

If we lynch, say we lynch one of the two remaining anti-town, then theres three of us. 1 townie will get NKed for sure and then depending on the Vig, we can possibly win, but very unlikely.

if we lynch town or possibly the vig, then the only chance we have is they mafia cross kill.

Honestly, it seems as though we're safer going with the no lynch because theres a higher probability of victory.

[thinktank]

The no-lynch is by far the best way to go. Scum can't win if we no lynch no matter, at best they can tie. And whats the point in claiming for the vig? Its just going to give a target for scum (assuming the claim is real). This is a terrible idea, its not like we're asking for a claim from the cop or some sort of role which would grant information upon claiming, the vig claiming wouldn't grant anything except possibly Night Kill choices which are again somewhat useless at this point. Theres no way of determining or confirming them, its just based on speculation on who you'd think is lying.

FOS: SensFan

[thinktank]

Assuming claims are 2Townie/2Vig
*Lynch scummiest Vig
**If Scum, Vig has a 1/2 chance of winning the game with his NK
**If Town, 1/2 chance of Mafia crossfire
---50% (1/2) chance of Town win---

Assuming claims are 1Townie/3Vig
*Lynch scummiest Vig
**If Scum, we win after Vig crosskills with other Scum.
**If Town, Scum know each other. WIFOM mind games regarding crossfire begin.
---83% (5/6) chance of Town win---

Assuming claims are 3Townie/1Vig
*Lynch scummiest Townie
**If Scum, Vig has 1/2 chance of crossfiring for the win.
**If Town, Scum know each other. WIFOM mind games regarding crossfire begin. Vig has 1/2 chance of crossfiring, so everyone dies.
---50% (1/2) chance of Town win---

Assuming No Lynch
*Scum have 1/9 chance of crossfire. Failing that, there is a 2/27 chance that one Scum kills the other, with the Vig killing the surviving scum.
---19% (5/27) chance of a Town win---

Assuming unclaimed lynch
*If Vig, Scum don't know each other, need a crossfire for a Town win
*If Townie, Town wins unless the same person gets shot twice
*If Scum, Vig has a 1/2 chance of winning the game with his NK
---38% (3/8) chance of a Town win---




As shown, with a mass-claim, we have at least a 50% chance of winning. Without a claim, our chances max out at 38%. No Lynching leaves us with terrible odds.

Fair Enough. Your math seems to work out. I'm fine for claiming first. Alright here we go! Lets do this bold!

I am the Vigilante!

Alright, I suppose its Joubert's time to claim..

[thinktank]

I am the Owner of the Casino: Vigilante

Sorry I didn't put the specific role title before i thought we were just claiming the actual role itself.

[thinktank]

Whats a one shot commuter?

[thinktank]

Because I'm a terrible vig. My kills on so far who i've though is scum have turned out to help scum more than anything else. After two pretty bad misskills, If i had made another misskill this game would be over. Because there would be two scum factions and one townie. No matter what the town would lose unless somehow they pulled a mislynch and then if the scum teams crosskilled one another. So it was just safer to not kill and hope for the best.

[thinktank]

woops* not a mislynch, a no-lynch.

[thinktank]

Believe what you want. One thing for sure is there are still 3 killing roles out there. And I made the right call, it wasn't worth risking a loss for the kill. If the decision back fired than the town would have lost almost certainly and there was no reason to take such a risk, it was just far more plausible. And BTW, notice that there are 3 killing roles and both you (Sensfan) and Joubert have claimed vanilla town. Which certainly means that one of you is lying. This means that since logically one of you is probably town, than that means aioqwe is the remaining scum.

[thinktank]

Its not guaranteed that there are three killing roles but it is likely because there is the kicking out of the casino , me, the torn to pieces, likely SK and the stuffed full of straw which is mafia.

As for my reasons:

Greasyspot: He really was not helping the game at all. OFcourse his role was declared after but at that point there was the good chance that he was faking a role as well as people claiming random interpretations to his messages albeit one of them was bang on. Then there was the odd chance that he was a jester it was best to remove him.

Lloyd: He was in general acting quite scummy. He kept jumping bandwagons on some less than commendable reasoning. This is the kill that I regret the most. It was tough, I had to pick between him, aioqwe and Sensfan as my target. I figured that Sensfan's actions were too obvious and same with aioqwe. Llloyd was somewhat under the radar and kind of shifty while jumping wagons so that kind of clinched it. In retrospect it would have been better to take out aioqwe or Sensfan seeing how this has turned out.


If we lynch a townie tonight then I'll kick out the other claimed townie. However, if there are two factions, which there likely are, then the other will take me out and then it will be a victory for scum. So if we lynch the wrong townie tonight we lose.

[thinktank]

Joubert posted his flavour, I fail to see why you wouldn't.

[thinktank]

unvote

I believe he was quoting the mod in the game so it doesn't count as quoting the role pm as this was in game. So Sensfan, what is your flavour? And Joubert makes an interesting case that out of two people claiming and wanting to go last, one, if not both, must for scummy reasons. fail to see why a townie would be so adamant about going last and delaying. But these are where are all the WIFOM mind game tactics begins so its kind of useless to argue one way or the other on hypotheticals because in theory as you say the town should claim last but the mafia also want to claim last to see the cards dealt so to speak. So then the mafia knowing that its a tactic and strategic to go last infact try to go first to trick the town into thinking that they're town. All these arguments are neither here nor there.

[thinktank]

fail to see why a townie would be so adamant about going last and delaying.

fail to see where either of us were adamant or delayed the game.

You still haven't given the flavour for your role pm.

Aioqwe, the problem is that if we lynch tonight, theres a 99.9% chance that i'm going to get NK tonight unless by some fluke and there is a very good chance that one of the scum factions will win. So lynching yourself is not the best idea, unless you're scum, then go right ahead, .

P.S adding statements such as "and I am the other town" or "considering I am town, this and this" doesn't make you seem any less scummy, it does the opposite considering theres little basis on which to believe any such argument.

[thinktank]

I dont think aioqwe's logic makes sense. If we lynch scum today then there will most likely be one scum and one townie. So I have a 50/50 of hitting scum and winning it for town, if i choose not to kill then its a tie for the town and one scum group. However, if we lynch aioqwe and he turns out town, then i know the identity of the two remaining scum and NK one of them. Then we end up in a prisoner's dilemma, in which the scum must decide to NK me or the other faction, if they either one of them decides to NK me and the other doesnt, then the other scum faction wins, if they both NK me then town loses, however if they cross kill, then we win. In this scenario, the town only has a 33% chance of victory while in the other scenario there is a 50% chance of victory.

The problem lies in the fact that we don't know if aioqwe is scum or town because neither is necessarily true until its too late ofcourse. So do we lynch him based on the assumption that hes town, and should he come up scum then the town is in an alright position. Or do we lynch someone else and then there is the difficult decision that I have to make whether aioqwe is scum or town...

[thinktank]

Not all 3 cases are identical. Bare statistics:
25% cross-kill
25% both killing you
50% 1 cross-kill and 1 targets you

-OR-

50% chance that you vig the correct person tonight if we hit a scumbag with a lynch.

However, no offense, but your performance thus far as vig hasn't been stellar.

-Working under the premise that I am actually town (basically my perspective of the game)-
I get the general feeling that you are leaning to me being scum. Thus, if we were left to night with you (vig), scum and me, town would loose (you shoot me, scum shoots you).
-If you don't let yourself be persuaded and act on say a coin flip then we have a 50% chance of winning.
-If you let your reasoning drive you (and your reasoning follows the above) then we have 0% chance of winning.

Which is why I am offering to lynch myself so that we go into the 1st scenarion. It isn't as desirable as a 50/50 kill because looking at motives, the best option is to target the vig. The vig is making kill that they can't alter but IF the scum A is chosen then scum B wins. Furthermore, there is no "punishment" if they both kill you.

However, if I were you, I would announce something along the lines of, "I won't shoot tonight" effectively putting ourselves at 1/1/1 which causes wifom games for scum. This causes another wifom on top of is he actually going to abide by his statement.

If you promise me to go ahead do a coin flip to decide who you kill tonight, we can proceed to lynch "scum". Otherwise, I am lynching myself.

I know I've been a terrible vig, which is why I didn't kill last night. During this night I was going to do a random integer generator or a coin flip to determine who will get NKed because yea I agree that my intuition has been pretty wrong thus far. And btw I'm not leaning towards you being scum, Im equally suspicious right now of all 3 of the other players. It sounds plausible for me to not kill tonight if we lynch town because like you said if the factions want to win then they must kill me and hope I kill the other, or kill the other and hope the other kills me or they could play for the tie if they both kill me.

[thinktank]

I am the vig. Believe it or not, but we have a deadline fast approaching so we need to come up with a game plan fast.

[thinktank]

Alright, we'll Lets hope this works out for the best and a someone lynch is better than a no lynch, so sry Joubert, here's hoping you're scum:

Vote: Joubert

[thinktank]

Ach! no! Well good game all. Sorry for being such a terrible vig......