Mini 550: KSFV: Game Over

[aioqwe]

vote: gnome

that's your new name mr gnome it all...

[aioqwe]

that's your new name mr gnome it all...

It's hardly new... Check my joined date. People have been shortening it to just gnome since my first game.

I'm so newb just making a joke

I support sensfan's vote. However, I want to see his reason. Ryan in my eyes has responded enough. Until you present the evidence against him.

[aioqwe]

Major FoS: aioqwe

, read post 32. More importantly, why would you support my vote if you didn't know the reasoning?

Ah sorry I seem to only have read the first part

Why would you support something you don;t the know the reason behind? If you support it why aren't you calling out ryan on it? and what exactly are you calling out if you don't know why exactly you agree with sensefan? And if you're calling out ryan on something he has done, then why are you telling him not to talk? If you feel like he is scum then he should defend himself, but if you feel he should not then you must be certain that he is, in which case why aren't you voting for him? Your statement does not fly, it just wreaks of scummyness. It is a scum tactic to hide behind other people's opinions so they don't have to justify their own.

FoS: aioqwe

When sensfan pointed out scuminess I went back and looked and felt ryan was scummy.

I'm not calling him out so much because we were on page 2 and I could still felt we were far enough in rvs that I wouldn't need to change my vote... yet.

My reasoning was ryan is insisting on the possibility of a jester. From what I have read, albeit small amount of reading, jesters seem to be an uncommon role. The suggestion makes me suspicious because he is imposing unnecessary fears on the town. Ryan insists that he is more like jester in 21 and 29 instead of accepting the possibility of a jester gambit or post-restriction. As for narrow mindedness, ryan could be accused of the same but in reverse seeing as how he is focusing on the possibility that GS is jester.

Again, I skimmed through 32. In my eyes, Sensfan had called out ryan, ryan had asked why, and I was waiting for sensfan's reasoning. The reason I was withholding my own reasoning is if sensfan might have been some reason to withhold his reasoning and I felt posting my own might infringe upon his tactic

I'm trying to say with an opinion. Why do you believe he's come out with 4 different role claims?

2 possibilities have already been posted that you are too eager to dismiss, jester gambit and post-restriction.

Now I'll

unvote, vote: ryan

Side-question: would the mafia attempt to take out a jester? If the jester is being too annoying, the town may wish to take out the jester. A lynch would cause the jester to win and scum to loose. Hence is it reasonable to assume they would nk the jester to prevent town from taking such actions?

Furthermore, does anyone see the possibility of ryan/ GS pair? GS makes absurd jester gambit and ryan suggests the possibility of VI making everyone fear a vote?

[aioqwe]

presumably vi is village idiot

GS hasn't posted anything informative yet. If doesn't post anything solid, I'm willing to lynch him, or get a vig or something (if we have one) to kill GS.

I think ryan/sf is plausible but unlikely. I think their bickering is more real then set up. Furthermore, I wouldn't auto-exonerate anyone for a little bickering immediately following RVS.

[aioqwe]

Probably refers to the initial random voting at the beginning of a game...

R

andom

V

ote

S

ession, or something like that...

Anyways, I'm not very comfortable with the Ryan/SensFan altercation and what ensued. Ryan evoqued the possibility of a Jester, and Aioqwe votes him (not a FoS, but a full-fledged vote) for that. The thing is, Jesters DO exist. Unless we are 100% sure there's no Jester in this game, thinking there could be one is not out of the question...

If he said that he might be a jester I might be okay with it. But the fact that he is so adamant about it is what bothers me. Furthermore, he is hypocritical in that he disregards other possibilities for GS's erratic posts and admonishes sensfan for him (SF) not being able to accept the possibility of VI.

Besides, what's my vote going to do, I think he's at 2 or 3 and it's 7 to lynch. Oh no! He's so close to lynch.

And you're right about rvs= random vote session.

[aioqwe]

Unvote

Vote GreasySpot

Just a weee bit of reason please?

GS's first game has a jester in it... He (GS) is town, but it's still ongoing... If that helps anyone...

[aioqwe]

So, which is it? Do scum attack early in the day, or sit back and wait?

I don't know SensFan, what are you currently doing?

What do you think he's doing. Besides what's wrong with an accusation on page 1. All it can do is get us out of a pointless RVS faster which I have absolutely no problem with.

GS's first game is game with joker in it. It is still on-going tho. However, GS has already died (in that game) and he came out town. I'm reading some of GS's game as his behavior here seems an oddity.

[aioqwe]

Just here to confirm my vote on ryan for his utter nonsense vote change.

What do you expect to gain by moving your vote? Since you ardently believe that he is jester and trying to get himself killed. Do you think him being close to a lynch will make him change his behavior? Furthermore, if you think he is jester why are you voting for him, so that he can win? Perhaps in reality you are a bit of scum trying to get in an easy lynch are happy wagon hopper?

Ryan popping up scum might 1 up the suspicion on SF but I don't think it pegs him on the wall.

GS isn't in any completed games. And in only one of his games has he died and had his role reveled (vanilla townie). In most of the games I think he comes off a bit scummy. However, he hasn't done anything such as role claim a post or such. Thus, I'm not throwing out the consideration of a him being inexperienced and not knowing how to use his restriction. Even so, he's on my scum list probably second or third...

[aioqwe]

First off you say that GS can't be a jester and that you'd all be shocked if he was, so I lay a vote to see if he'll stop this unamusing role claiming he's been doing and now I'm getting pointed to as scum? Well I'm sorry but I am NOT scum and just a townie trying to further understand why GS is doing what he's doing. Yes I do think him close to a lynch would change his behavior which is why I changed my vote. If he's just a regular townie with a horrible post restriction than I guess I'm wrong, but I'm not wrong for scummy reasons, I'm trying to understand WHAT he's doing.

Really, several people have admitted the possibility that he may be jester. SF is perhaps the one who most firmly believes that GS can't be jester. Personally, I don't like the fact that we are getting messed up about the possibility of a jester. And I don't think constantly pursuing the idea is the way to go right now. Furthermore, I think you have some traits of scum in claiming SF is so narrow minded to not accept the possibility of jester whereas you were being equally narrow minded in believing that he is a jester.

Now isn't the time for a claim. Saying who has power roles only gives mafia targets.

I support sensfan's vote. However, I want to see his reason. Ryan in my eyes has responded enough. Until you present the evidence against him.

Highly scummy - already covered by everyone else

And I've already clarified what I meant. Posting old news is a tad scummy really.

Again, I skimmed through 32. In my eyes, Sensfan had called out ryan, ryan had asked why, and I was waiting for sensfan's reasoning. The reason I was withholding my own reasoning is if sensfan might have been some reason to withhold his reasoning and I felt posting my own might infringe upon his tactic

When I read Sensfans post, I assumed that he had some sort of info about ryan, and that his tatic was to see what everyone had to say. I decided that I would wait and see what both ryan and Sensfan had to say, before commenting, whereas you saw an easy bandwagon and jumped on it.

I read SF's post. My initial reaction was SF is looking for a newb scum to jump on a bandwagon however I re-read ryan and I thought he was scum. Albeit, it might have been wiser to post my reasoning initially, so that I don't appear to be a newb scum who was caught in the trap. If I wanted an easy wagon to jump on I would vote GS. Personally I don't like GS, because whatever is causing him to do what he is doing sucks. However, I think ryan isn't that townie so I'm voting him.

Normally I wouldn't care so much about 1 vote but something just struck me odd about your accusations.

There needs to be more discussion about GS and talking from aioqwe.

I'd like to hear from GS - if you have a PR, at least give us some clues.

If you have to post in role claims - then claim The Bartender, with the ability to see through walls.

Otherwise post something intelligent.

I posted a little over 24 hrs. ago. I sleep and am in school for the other parts of the day. I check threads once on weekdays, but get more chances on weekends. On that note I will be v/la for the next couple of days

Yes about stuff regarding GS. However could we go along with something like claim "poker player- with the ability to win big money" if you actually have a post restriction.

Claim "spy- hides secret messages for the town" if you have been putting "messages" in your posts. If you can add something in the description such as, "there are ### number of spies working with me" where ### would indicate one of your posts were you hid a message please do so.

Claim something beginnings with the letter A and description of whatever if something in your post restriction prevents you from posting what we have asked you to do (for example you can't use a town's suggestion for a role-claim or whatever).

[aioqwe]

Unvote

The more I think about it the more I'm going back to my original thought that GS is indeed a jester. I thought for awhile (as it was brought up) he could be scum and just trying something new in this game (by all the fake role claims)

Vote: SensFan

Post 111 sealed it for me. You think on Page 1 I should have voted the person I most thought was scummy AND since I didn't I must be scum? Usually on page 1 you have a ton of random votes with no real reasoning and for that to be one of your reasons? You're reaching and trying to paint me as scummy in the process.

Vote who you think is scummy or rvs. Don't need to be worrying about jesters and shoving it down people's throats.

GS could you role-claim according to how I asked you in my post before this?

[aioqwe]

sorry just got back and am busy catching up.

I say no claim for now but I want to re-read RC
GS is pseudo cooperative. I don't want to lynch him yet.
I intend to re-read SF and ryan
194 is interesting, the whole "m" thing and it not being part of role claim

more will come later

[aioqwe]

Okay looking over some things. RC are you a pro-town cult leader or a cult cop or something that tells you there should be a cult but are otherwise un-related? On that note I may support a claim on day 2, 3, 4 depending on the casualties at night, but not a d1 mass claim.

I think GS might have to wait between posts (can't double post). As far as I can tell you can't be de-culted. (unless that is your role?)

Gnome and Jourb get suspicion points lack of posts.

I've gone back to GS's posts and can decipher nothing from them. My own role has pretty much 0 match to any of his claims. I think he might have be trying to get us to say stuff based on his claims that unlock abilities or break his restriction. (i.e. us talking about spies and whatnot) Just wondering could we threaten maf to with a GS lynch tom. If he is jester, we loose but maf looses as well. So on that chance they would nk GS. On the other hand, if GS is mafia he will be spared tonight and killed tomorrow. If he has a crappy PR then I haven't seen him making much of an attempt to break out of it. Just a suggestion.

Too clarify my suspicions
ryan- find him pretty scummy but I want to read his more recent posts
SF- some people have suggested him being scummy/ partner... I want to look into this a bit more
Unity- for some weird reason I have a gut feeling. I'll go look at it a bit more
GS- possiblity...

everyone else is falling sufficiently below my sucmdar... for now...

[aioqwe]

Okay looking over some things. RC are you a pro-town cult leader or a cult cop or something that tells you there should be a cult but are otherwise un-related? On that note I may support a claim on day 2, 3, 4 depending on the casualties at night, but not a d1 mass claim.

yes something like that.

a claim now would be useless. i wanted a mass claim because i suspected the majority of roles were similar to mine and that the cult leader wouldnt be able to make a good one. id be able to pick it out.

now its useless since everyone knows.

I agree now it won't help

Depenin on you being a cop/de-culter versus and pro-town cult leader we should take very different actions...

@Jourb: I said I'm going back and re-evaluating the whole situation especially since I've been away for so long. But heck, the impression that he was scummy still lasts...

[aioqwe]

SF- some people have suggested him being scummy/ partner... I want to look into this a bit more

So you find me suspicious because everyone else does?

I think there are some people who are suspicious but I forgot their claims. So before I throw out a vote or FoS I want to read their claims and look at your posts again. So as of right now, no.

If he was a protown cult leader why would he be scared.

He's PROTOWN. Cult members win with cult. The leader wins with town. But the leader is forced to recruit. Referances to worst mafia evar, and there was a role like that. Although, he could simply be cult-cop, or a de-culter or something rather.

[/quote]

I hold all the cards but I can't play

I control the flow of the game.

I know all the routes but nobody knows me.

I watch people but nobody sees me because I don't exist.

I watch everybody, but someone always watches me.

I think, because of the last one, these don't refer to the mod

I am never the same person twice.

This is probably part of his post restriction

I get rid of the problem people, but only at night.

personally I think this is a vig

I have to analyze everybody by day and send that info to the mod. If I am correct about a person I get to see their powers, if they have any.

This would seem like a cop

I am English, yet I could be from anywhere.

possibly some sort of traitor, seeing as how everyone thinks he's from one place but could actually be from anywhere?

I say we compile a list of what certain roles might be referring to, cop, doc, vig, etc. And people claim if their role resembles any... Preferably have a larger list so that the mafia would still have a difficult time deducing who might have what role...

Personally I want a post from GS indicating whether we are supposed to make something from his posts

I also think we need to analyze these posts in regards to context of the game. Like if someone made any requests right before or something...

[aioqwe]

nervous cop=paranoid cop?

[aioqwe]

I think we really need to start hunting scum. GS seems to have some sort of power role, although he could just be faking, but we can't solely become obsessed with his posts. Town needs to get back on track. Lets get things started.

vote: aioqwe

reason? Kind of hard to defend against nothing but meh...

[aioqwe]

Rosso, is your accusation based on knowledge or just a guess?

(should be around the 30th if my calendar glancing is correct)

So our deadline is now set for February 30th?

Lurkers, do what you do best

[aioqwe]

Sorry to say you'd be wrong on me for your "time to lynch" statement

appeal to emotion

I'm re-reading all my games and have plenty of work IRL. Normally I would take my vote off but it doesn't do much good sitting there in the no vote pile.

[aioqwe]

re-reading
Dun like Joub's defense.

Confirm Vote: Ryan

for recent actions.

[aioqwe]

ryan is there anymore flavor to your role?

How does claiming town make you less suspicious? Would scum not always claim town?

[aioqwe]

This is a quicklynch? What's a slow lynch?

re-reading all my games along with rl (yeah such a place exists) stuff...

[aioqwe]

Perhaps unity and armlx were a bit close and viq might be putting another on you but you've had the other 2 votes since page 2. That's fast? Speed lynch is like getting 5-7 votes in about a page (or 2 if they go over to the next page) This is like 5 votes in 12 pages...

[aioqwe]

How are you 100% sure? Especially if you are vanilla? Note that gut is not 100%

[aioqwe]

I'll ignore GS till we've had a night probably...

[aioqwe]

Hm. Joub's ryan's partner if he turns ups scum.
If ryan turns up town can we give him LVP? Just to reiterate, your actions don't help town whatsoever.
Yeah, I'll finish up a re-read later...

[aioqwe]

I don't think GS is the lynch for today. I'm of the opinion that he won't be alive long. And I interpreted his claims as saying "I don't hove a clue."

[aioqwe]

I interpreted the ASS statements as a pun on a cocktail waitress's assets but I guess it goes either way. He hasn't really responded to anyone else's requests in the thread so what makes his post with/ without capitals any different?

[aioqwe]

re-reading-ish

rosso carne, what was this stuff about cult that you know?

[aioqwe]

O.o I just realized a third of the town died in one day/ night...

[aioqwe]

second that...

[aioqwe]

while we wait for a replacement

vote: thinktank

discuss

[aioqwe]

do we get armlx/GS's pms?

*quickly* looking at the dead people's posts. armlx had suspicions of SF. Can't decipher any of GS's post. Unity didn't specifically mention anyone he *didn't* find guilty.

[aioqwe]

Think, omgus won't help town right now. And whats with voting me, you voted me on D1 for no apparent reason and now you're pretty much doing the same.

[aioqwe]

Could he have a post restriction too? I hope not.

RC, so did you have a good read on unity or not? You seemed pretty sure in those posts.

[aioqwe]

I don't think we should lynch RC on the possibility of him being cultie cop and us having a cult (2 members now, leader and recruit). Thinktank, see this reasoning? This is why RC would claim cult cop. Anyways, cult would be at 3 people IF we have a cult and it can recruit every night. Seeing as no killing roles seem to have died they will be 2 off of a majority. So IF we have a cult and IF it can recruit every night, then we need to take care of it with a lynch/nk. Scarecrows (presumed mafia) are down a member so I don't see them as an immediate threat...

[aioqwe]

Don't really know. It's highly unlikely tho. Why does believing in this possibility warrant and FoS?

[aioqwe]

cult/ scum *might* be limited to recruit/kill every other day.

But this is a failing argument. I'll do a re-read and see how my opinions turn up.

[aioqwe]

What's OP?

[aioqwe]

I've seen a cult cop turn up to be a bastard role I think it was goats mafia. I would vote but, we'd be at L-2 and I think we should be trying to get more done today...

[aioqwe]

A cult isn't necessarily anti-town however given a cult cop, it probably IS anti-town.

Here'sGoat's Mafia. I'm pretty sure there was a cult cop but no cult.

[aioqwe]

@Lloyd:
I think Lloyd is jumping to conclusions pretty quickly.
I don't think Unity agreeing with Gnome necessarily points to him being scum. As of now, I think BM is pro-town. SensFan I'm less sure of, however I think I would still categorize him as town.

@BM: Cult would recruit the cult cop and make him give false results. (i.e. getting negative on cult members and near end game pop a positive on a non-member and get a quick lynch and wal-lah!

ViQ hasn't posted in a while has he?

[aioqwe]

What is your mafia experience outside of MS?
that includes real life, IRC, scumchat etc.

[aioqwe]

That's a loaded question... Really loaded... Just saying. I think he's scum enough, but that's a really loaded question.

[aioqwe]

I fail to see why you wouldn't want to answer...

[aioqwe]

@Lloyd: Just pointing it out RC posted:
Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 3:58 pm Post subject: 515

Doesn't seem like a week ago imo... BM, will you clarify why you are making the request after RC gives you the information?

[aioqwe]

Nice 180. Where would it imply that mafia and/or cult do no know who each other are? I've only read worst role evar and just from the title you would figure that if the mafia had some sort of impediment, it would be that they don't know who each other are.

[aioqwe]

twilight by my count, waiting on the mod then?

[aioqwe]

torn to pieces and scarecrows didn't kill tonight. Could we have 2 mafia, scarecrows and werewolves? 2 each and we've taken out one group? Or do we have 3 maf, an sk and both groups were blocked, doc'd? Or do we have something else? Reading back at stuff...

[aioqwe]

I highly doubt there is anything in GS's posts simply because we started in day.

I think or possibilities lie:
1 vig + 1 SK + 1 Mafia (originally 3 maf)
1 vig + 2 maf + 0 maf (2 teams of 2 each)

Furthermore, I believe the first situation is more likely considering a investigation immune sk would be helpful with all of the cops, and 2 mafia goons + possible godfather would be approx. balanced for the roles we have. On that note, I doubt we would have uneven mafia teams and I doubt we would have a 4 man mafia group.

6 alive, might it be time for a mass claim or should we wait a day?

Gonna re-read some.

[aioqwe]

5. ryan, Cocktail Waitress, Vanilla Townie, modkilled day 1

6. armlx, Surveillance System, Tracker,

stuffed full of straw Night 1

4. Unity, Scarecrow Goon,

torn to pieces Night 1

2. Greasy Spot, Undercover FBI Agent, Nervous Cop, kicked out of the casino Night 1

3. Rosso Carne, Scarecrow Goon, lynched Day 2

12. Lloyd, High Roller, Vanilla Townie, kicked out of the casino Night 2

Notice the kills present Night 1 (in bold) that aren't present night 2. Kicked out of the casino was present both nights.

[aioqwe]

SK an anti-town "faction" imo. He's not with mafia, and he wants the town dead. Thus, he's a faction. Furthermore, Thinktank, we SHOULD be prepared for the worst case scenario. If we are at least conscious of the worst case scenario then we at least have a clue as how to act in that scenario, as oposed to running around thinking it's okay to lynch/vig who ever and end up with a major loss.

FOS: Thinktank.

[aioqwe]

@BM: what vote? 543 was rather pointless as it stated the obvious.

Worst case scenario is that this is our last day. Thus, it may be wise to act as though we are at lylo. Yes, we can rely on luck, however, I would rather not...

[aioqwe]

It's not necessarily lylo per say because we can lynch inncorrectly, have all kills blocked or something to that nature and still win.

Also, we have had 2 cops pop up. I dunno too much about vegas but do you think we may be playing a cop heavy variant and a RBer of sorts?

[aioqwe]

First three sentences addressed jorb on whether the sk is a faction or not. The next part of the post was adressed to TT and basically said we should take precautions as though this were a LyLo case even if it isn't. Simply because, tomorrow we could wake up to a town loss. I FoSed TT because it seems so scummy to try and make the town feel comfortable only to nk and over night. Besides it provides a nice way to say no to a mass claim and avoid having to come up with a role that fits.

[aioqwe]

Then does that mean you are an sk?
The vig could be some for of security guard. Do you lock people up yourselves?
Don't you think it is more likely that he was just targetted or just attempting to kill some one?

[aioqwe]

so we have 2 mafia groups 1 scum each, both are goons probably (scarecrows were 3 goons, tigers were a 1rb and 1 goon)

If we no lynch then we have A scum, B scum, and 2 town going into the night.
If both of the mafia pick of different townies, we loose
If both mafia pick off the same townie tomorrow we should no lynch so that we have a chance of winning (scum cross-kill)

If we lynch 1 mafia, we have 1 mafia and 2 scum going into the night. Assuming we don't have a doc, bulletproof townie, commuter, another jailkeeper etc., we are down to 1 townie and 1 scum, hence we loose

If we lynch a town then we have 1 townie A scum and B scum going into the night. Y'all should know the scenarios of that.

If anyone has no objections, I'll go ahead and vote myself.

[aioqwe]

EBWOP: actually I won't vote so fast; we need to give scum the opportunity to identify each other and know who the town are. I think.

[aioqwe]

According to the above cases, the only chance town has to win right now should be if we have 1 town A scum and B scum going into the night (If you don't understand read 474 again) in which case we need to kill one town.

Scum are at the dilemma as to either kill the townie or the other scum. If they kill the town but get killed themselves then they loose. If they both kill the townie then they draw. This is opposed to killing the other scum and having a chance at winning or loosing. However because both scum are individually more likely to try and kill each other it would end up cross-killing leading to a town victory.

Thus, to ensure that we have 1 town, A scum and B scum, we should kill a townie, hence why I would vote myself... Does anyone see any flaws?

[aioqwe]

No. But we should give enough posts that each of the scum should have a reasonable chance of identifying each other.

[aioqwe]

Sorry, my laptop at home is broken and I'm writing this from a computer at school. I'll start posting again as soon as I get my laptop back.

[aioqwe]

oh right vig duh. Okay if town feels ballsy, we lynch a mafia and the vig kills remaining mafia.

oh god 3/3/6?! that means there's only 1 townie right now if that's the case no voting me... sorry...

[aioqwe]

having 1 townie, scum A and scum B gives a higher chance that they will cross kill.

[aioqwe]

So the two best scenario's are lynch a townie (vig or other) left with 1/1/1 or, vig claims, we who we want to lynch and /possibly/ who the vig will kill.

[aioqwe]

possibly a better idea- we lynch a mafia and have the vig kill the other at night albeit it is slightly more risky.

Either way no lynch sucks.

I support the claims as well... I think... (I'm trying to work out cases...)

[aioqwe]

claim time
tank, jourb, sf, me.
If any objections we can do popcorn style (choose first person to claim and he chooses the next person etc.) or just post your order and we can come to some agreement. If someone doesn't claim we get everyone else's claim and lynch the one who didn't claim. Alright then go tank.

[aioqwe]

elvis impersonator- 1-shot commuter

SF?

[aioqwe]

Not exactly what I expected but eh... SF and Jourb are scum (they stole role names from GS). I'd rather lynch jourb first due to his general lurky behavior and SF seems to contribute more (on the off chance that it was 3/1 or 2/2 for the scum).

[aioqwe]

Not exactly what I expected but eh... SF and Jourb are scum (they stole role names from GS). I'd rather lynch jourb first due to his general lurky behavior and SF seems to contribute more (on the off chance that it was 3/1 or 2/2 for the scum).

Seeing as GS claimed everything under the Sun, you don't think it's possible that he got a couple right?

If there is a tweak in our interpretation of the set-up I think your town. Otherwise knowing I claimed 'vanilla' and 2 others claimed 'vanilla' the two others are scum.
On that note, GS hasn't claimed anything correctly. From scums POV tigers and scarecrows aren't claimable so they have to look into dead people's names and in this game GS provided some very plausible names. It is possible that he accurately guessed or by some property of his role derived a correct role name, however I think the fact that 2/3 of our 'vanilla' claims are from the list warrants some suspicion.

[aioqwe]

Given TT's dismal reasoning capabilities I say we ditch his logic.

I definately wouldn't have spent a while coming up with that huge stat block if I were Scum. Not to mention, based on that stat block, a Vig claim would have given me a much higher chance of winning, if Scum.

Wait and this isn't WIFOM?

Please detail your role flavors. Jourb first, I'll go second, SF can go last (I'd rather go last but honestly from an outsider's perspective I'm not townie enough to make such a request). Also, I would like to point out, cocktail waitresses and surveillance systems aren't exactly 100% associated with vegas. Furthermore, an undercover FBI agent has just about as much to do with Vegas as and Elvis impersonators.

...
If we lynch 1 mafia, we have 1 mafia and 2 scum going into the night. Assuming we don't have a doc, bulletproof townie,

commuter

, another jailkeeper etc., we are down to 1 townie and 1 scum, hence we loose
...

Bread crumbing doesn't help too much, it's late in the game but for what it's worth.

SF, I'm looking at your probability, why is a 1/1/1 have a 50% chance of mafia cross-fire. You neglected the possibility that we could lynch the scummiest townie in a 2/2 claim scenario. If he was a town we have a 1/1/vig vs. 1/1/town. If he is scum, the vig knows the scum (the other vig claim).

I'm still willing to lynch myself so we have a 1/1/vig.

I'll look over and present an actual case against the other two.

[aioqwe]

Because townie's going first give scum more information. (i.e. role names, what roles exist etc.). Because I'm town, I want to go last.

Jourb are you saying there is absolutely no flavor in your role pm?

After jourb details answers to the above question, I will post more details about my role.

[aioqwe]

you can't re-word it at all?

[aioqwe]

Let me confirm that I can post my re-wording of my role pm...

[aioqwe]

I'm at vegas due to a elvis meeting of people who love elvis and such. There a lot of people who dressed up as him (like me) so whenever I go there nobody can get me.

So SF, can you divulge any flavor?

[aioqwe]

ummm.... post now unless you can manage to get us a deadline extension...

Im inclined to vote Jourb right now as I am pretty sure that he is scum. My belief is that SF is the other scum IF we have one. (simply because TT is the ONLY one to have claimed vig).

[aioqwe]

@sensfan: that was also appeared in ryan's role quote... hence I would have considered it to be a null tell but the fact that he didn't pick up on it... hmmm....

claim time
tank, jourb, sf, me.

If any objections we can do popcorn style (choose first person to claim and he chooses the next person etc.) or just post your order and we can come to some agreement.

If someone doesn't claim we get everyone else's claim and lynch the one who didn't claim. Alright then go tank.

If you posted objections I'm willing to adapt, in fact you wanted me to go after you and I was perfectly willing to.

your claim, sf's request for more info, and TT's response all occured within an hour. I didn't get onto the comp till later that day (approx. 10 hrs. after) so if you are trying to make a case that I was waiting for more information thats a null tell.

If I'm town and 2 other people claim town when there can only be 1 town, what do you think I'm going to assume? My statement that you took your role names from GS was more of an observation.

Initially I wanted more details on your flavor to see if it's comparable to any of my flavor (which gave an explanation of my role and how I ended up vegas and whatnot.) Then I realized, pete_d had reveled the vanilla town pm, and ryan (vanilla) had quoted his entire role pm. Thus, anything that would be "secret" to vanillas isn't so secret. I also realized that you couldn't really divulge any information because the vanilla role pm had very little flavor to go on.

And, let me get this strait, you're trying to make a case against me and SF because we are requesting to go last? Any townie should request to go last as divulge as little extra information to the mafia as possible. Meanwhile, the mafia want to go last so that they can get as much information from other role claims as possible. Thus, requesting to go last is pretty much a null tell.

I'm too busy to post any formal case like I promised earlier. I'm to lazy to do anything more for this game, thus I'm also willing to get myself lynched. In that case TT (vig) take your pick between SF and jourb. Then the other two scum boys can choose to pick each other off or kill TT.

MOD: what time is our deadline on saturday, like afternoon australian time or morning?

[aioqwe]

We have a vig right?
There is only one vig claim right?
So the one who claimed vig is vig (however I really don't like the vig that claimed...)

Seeing as how he is taking a very anti-me sense and that I am the other town and the entire plan that we are attempting revolves around lynching the mafia and having the vig correctly target the mafia who is still alive, can I lynch myself? That way we go to the mafia A/mafia B/vig scenario...

meh... i'm re-reading

[aioqwe]

Aioqwe, the problem is that if we lynch tonight, theres a 99.9% chance that i'm going to get NK tonight unless by some fluke and there is a very good chance that one of the scum factions will win. So lynching yourself is not the best idea.

If you are going to vig me tonight thent the town won't win (which is what it sounds like). If we lynch me today, you will vig between 2 people who are scum. The scum are left between killing the other scum or you leading to wifom/prisoner's delima scenarios.

[aioqwe]

Vig can kill/be killed in one night... theoretically

[aioqwe]

It might on the off-chance that one of the mafia forgets to shoot.

[aioqwe]

Not all 3 cases are identical. Bare statistics:
25% cross-kill
25% both killing you
50% 1 cross-kill and 1 targets you

-OR-

50% chance that you vig the correct person tonight if we hit a scumbag with a lynch.

However, no offense, but your performance thus far as vig hasn't been stellar.

-Working under the premise that I am actually town (basically my perspective of the game)-
I get the general feeling that you are leaning to me being scum. Thus, if we were left to night with you (vig), scum and me, town would loose (you shoot me, scum shoots you).
-If you don't let yourself be persuaded and act on say a coin flip then we have a 50% chance of winning.
-If you let your reasoning drive you (and your reasoning follows the above) then we have 0% chance of winning.

Which is why I am offering to lynch myself so that we go into the 1st scenarion. It isn't as desirable as a 50/50 kill because looking at motives, the best option is to target the vig. The vig is making kill that they can't alter but IF the scum A is chosen then scum B wins. Furthermore, there is no "punishment" if they both kill you.

However, if I were you, I would announce something along the lines of, "I won't shoot tonight" effectively putting ourselves at 1/1/1 which causes wifom games for scum. This causes another wifom on top of is he actually going to abide by his statement.

If you promise me to go ahead do a coin flip to decide who you kill tonight, we can proceed to lynch "scum". Otherwise, I am lynching myself.

[aioqwe]

Am I the only one thinking there might not actually be a Vig?

The kills make sense coming from a vig. I was pretty firm in my belief that TT is not the vig, however, there is only one claim. If you or anyone is attempting to insinuate that they are the vig and TT is fake claiming, speak up.

Okay, aside from his general lurkish behavior, I think it is specifically noteworthy that Jour is posting so little right now. Right now, our townie should be trying to convince the vig who is who, yet he's quieter than a plant.

More coming later.

[aioqwe]

I dunno, the last post just sounded like you were the vig, but was hiding. I don't think we need any secrets now...

[aioqwe]

vote: Jourb

@TT: If we still have a scum left, flip a coin or just shoot Sensfan.

[aioqwe]

Yup, from a scum's perspective

[aioqwe]

Uh what? Jourb makes no sense. The vig is what explains the "kicked out of the casino" night kill scene. TT is the only person to have claimed vig. Therefore, he is most likely a vig.

Second, as a town in this scenario, one should try and convince the vig that they are town and the two other people who claimed town are actually scum. Perhaps some of my logic is weak that I am presenting some of the evidence from my perspective. Regardless, that doesn't necessarily make me scum.

TT, get on here before the day ends and lynch Jourb.

[aioqwe]

gr. ah well it was pretty cool.

[aioqwe]

I blame Ryan. That is all.

On that note, my entire argument with ryan was entirely genuine.

Because you were looking for the scarecrows.