Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]

[outoforder]

Creature (or anyone with like over 10 games of experience on this site):
How likely it is that mafia would try to "derail" a D1 lynch on their partner into a no-lynch by making a case on another partner of theirs? Basically do no-lynches happen, and if yes, how often, in IML games (D1)?

[KidAmn]

BlackVoid will come here and will do a "small fix" on this outoforder wagon.

At least i am basically waiting for seeing where BlackVoid stands.
Also interested in where Hapa and Rels stand after D1 and with the new information on the table.
We are pretty much on the same page and i have not much interest in Kop since based on VCA i don't think he can be scum.
Letting momo to catch up and i don't really think his slot is scum here anyways. Discussing anything with cassielle or KidAmn seems like a dead end and both of them are voting for me because they don't like me so i don't even really feel the need, or care to defend myself against that.

Creature (or anyone with like over 10 games of experience on this site):
How likely it is that mafia would try to "derail" a D1 lynch on their partner into a no-lynch by making a case on another partner of theirs? Basically do no-lynches happen, and if yes, how often, in IML games (D1)?

So to misrep and adhom we can now add appeal to authority and false equivalency (this thing would never happen in regular games so it clearly wouldn't happen in a game where everyone is either scum or a 1-shot PGO).

[momo]

VOTE: Havingfitz

The reasons are clear.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Havingfitz

The reasons are clear.

Do tell.

For whatever reasons OoO isn't providing?

Now that you've finished reading the game do you have any original thoughts?

[havingfitz]

OoO...this is what answering a questions looks like:

Creature (or anyone with like over 10 games of experience on this site):
How likely it is that mafia would try to "derail" a D1 lynch on their partner into a no-lynch by making a case on another partner of theirs? Basically do no-lynches happen, and if yes, how often, in IML games (D1)?

I would say it's very doubtful. Not impossible if all the scum are being strongly scumread though.
No lynches are not uncommon at all. How often....who knows? I would guess maybe 10% of the time.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, I'm here. I was hoping to see contributions from Hap and Rels before I posted so I could have their uninfluenced thoughts but it's been a day and I just want to get a move on.

HavingFitz is my top scumread for the defense of Hawk and vote on Kop. From re-reading overnight, I also find his scumreads very convenient. Aubrey is a scumread because of Aubrey's push on him. Hap is a scumread because Hap agreed with Aubrey and voted him. outoforder is a scumread because of the way outoforder pushed him. The only scumread there that's not based on how they pushed Fitz is Cass. So this question to Hap is just laced with irony:

Question to hapa...have you voiced any suspicions towards players that was not based in part on them suspecting you first?

In light of this, Question to Fitz - have you voiced any suspicions towards players that was not based in part on them suspecting you first? Cass is the only one I can see. Nearly all your scumreads are because they pushed you.

That's the easy part though. I'm not really confident on who the remaining scum is so I'm going to do a thorough POE on everyone else. I also don't want the day ending anytime soon before we've gamesolved and all agreed on who the final two scum are.

@outoforder - Doom's replace out isn't the end-all of my townread on his slot. There was more to it and the replace out just cemented an existing townread. I think if he were scum, he'd be more likely to tell his buddies that he was going to replace out and agree to wait until they can seal another mislynch and replace out during the night. I also thought the way he posted a final guess for the scumteam was his way of wanting to see how accurate his reads were and it's one of those things I doubt scum would bother to fake. As far as his actual content, I'm going to go over it once again just to make sure and I'd also like to discuss all of our reads and get on the same page before we go to night.

[outoforder]

After giving it more thought i dont really think hapa makes any sense as mafia since he was widely accepted as lynch. It just doesnt make any sense mafia would just let that happen so easily.

Regarding Rels, he usually has a lot of thread precense as mafia. I am somewhat certain he wouldnt vote for Hawk that easily in case he was mafia. Still need to check something regarding that when i get off work.

So basically i am left with fitz and KidAmn, because i think mafia rwally wanted to turn the lynch onto Kop late D1. Like when you made the case on Hawk suddenly the Kop wagon pops out of nowhere. And i dont really see anyone else being mafia.

[outoforder]

BV are you around maybe 2:30pm cest? Or if not, when are you around?

[outoforder]

Rels is probably mafia tbh.

[outoforder]

Reading further i'd like to correct myself, i am sure Rels is mafia.

[BlackVoid]

I'm here. I was confused at what CEST was compared to GMT/UTC but right now it's 6:30 AM PST and I just woke up. This is probably the earliest I can be here.

As far as Hap is concerned, I was ready to write him off as town based on his reactions to pressure and the fact that everyone was scumreading him. But some of Hawk's posts have made me uneasy. It almost seemed like he was blaming me for derailing the Hap wagon which would make sense if he wanted to make it seem like I was partnered with him. But I guess could just be general shade-throwing of "you derailed lynches and now we're hitting deadline." 1232, 1247, 1252 are the posts I'm talking about.

[BlackVoid]

I went into N1 convinced that Fitz and Rels were the remaining scum but the thing that gives me pause is Hawk's odd vote on Rels in 888. I'm not sure why he'd put a vote there after I made a case on Hap.

I'm going back and forth between whether there's one scum in Hap/Rels and Hawk's posting was inside info and whether they are both town and Hawk was trying to set up Rels in the event of a Hap townflip.

KidAmn is the other player I've been considering and I'm glad you brought it up before I mentioned anything. He fits as a Fitz partner really well. A lot of what he's saying just doesn't make any sense (saying that Rels and I derailed the Hap wagon before I actually derailed it when I was still pushing it and Rels hadn't posted), so that's consistent throughout. I'm still holding on to his ATE-type posts as my reasons for townreading him.

[outoforder]

What do you mean with #1232? I don't see "blaming you for derailing Hapa wagon" there. To me it looks like he is happy when you made a case on Aubrey (which doesn't tell much about Hapa's alignment since as mafia having two town wagons instead of one is obviously better). The last two posts are after you made a case on him, correct? If that is so, it's probably just basic scum play -- when you have a case on you that you can't reasonably answer to you instead attack the other person or make up some meaningless stuff about something else they did instead of actually defending yourself against the case.

[outoforder]

I mean like posts #1232 and #1247 super easily always made Hawk mafia.
First he is happy you are trying to push the conversation forwards, when he ends up on you you are super terrible player just like the scum!Aubrey (as he "believed" Aubrey is mafia) said just a couple of moments before....

If Hapa is scum here why does Hawk say this though (in #1232):

OoO, BV, and Rels all still kinda townread Hapa and are posturing around the lynch. Of not OoO refuses to vote Aubrey but doesn't seem with happy with Hapa's lynch either... which is a really weird place to be 10 hours before deadline...

Anyone who has read my posts before this has to know i am never going to vote for Aubrey here. What's the point of "triggering me" (because if Hapa is scum and i take the bait i will 100% vote for Hapa out of those 2) here?

[outoforder]

EBWOP: when you end up on him

[outoforder]

What i mean in #1463, the last paragraph, is that him directly telling that to me cannot possibly achieve anything except my reaction being thinking either him or hapa is scum. Out of those three (him - hapa - aubrey) it doesn't make any sense unless he wants me on hapa.

[BlackVoid]

OoO, BV, and Rels all still kinda townread Hapa and are

posturing around the lynch.

With 1232, I mean this was odd phrasing and had me paranoid that he knew Hap was mafia but it's weak.

You decide to waffle on Hapa and try so hard to find a lynch off wagon. Reserved that Hapa lynch isn't happening you're pressuring Aubrey to the point of insanity and then when his lynch hits L-2 and no one else is voting (specifically OoO isn't wowed by it) You go. no wait! What about Hawk. Hawk is sus because he is saying the same thing I've been fucking saying just from his PoV.

This though felt like he was holding me accountable for trying so hard to find a lynch outside Hap so if Hap flips somewhere down the line, he could point to this.

[momo]

gm

[outoforder]

With 1232, I mean this was odd phrasing and had me paranoid that he knew Hap was mafia but it's weak.

Ahhh okay, i see what you mean. Do people actually do that here? I mean like "out scumbuddies" like that? I agree that's very very odd phrasing.

[BlackVoid]

What do you mean with #1232? I don't see "blaming you for derailing Hapa wagon" there. To me it looks like he is happy when you made a case on Aubrey (which doesn't tell much about Hapa's alignment since as mafia having two town wagons instead of one is obviously better). The last two posts are after you made a case on him, correct? If that is so, it's probably just basic scum play -- when you have a case on you that you can't reasonably answer to you instead attack the other person or make up some meaningless stuff about something else they did instead of actually defending yourself against the case.

Okay, but if Hawk and Fitz are both scum, would they so easily jump off of the guaranteed Hap mislynch for a potential Aubrey mislynch when they could just take the Hap mislynch and wait for me tunnel Aubrey the following day?

You are right that two town counterwagons are better than one but they come at the risk of the scum looking opportunistic when they switch over which is exactly what happened. I also don't like that Hap posted in a different game since this thread open but hasn't posted here for over a day and a half. It's clearly not because he hasn't been on site.

[outoforder]

This though felt like he was holding me accountable for trying so hard to find a lynch outside Hap so if Hap flips somewhere down the line, he could point to this.

I still have my reservations about this since how i interpret that post of Hawk's is that he is basically appealing to Aubrey and telling you "you should go back to hapa since now you're being retarded". Like in those later posts you quoted he is literally trying to appeal to the fact you FIRST went to Aubrey and then to him, which doesn't make much sense unless he either wants to:
1) you to go back to hapa (in which case hapa is most likely not mafia), or
2) just discredit you (in which case it doesn't tell anything about hapa's alignment)

[outoforder]

What do you mean with #1232? I don't see "blaming you for derailing Hapa wagon" there. To me it looks like he is happy when you made a case on Aubrey (which doesn't tell much about Hapa's alignment since as mafia having two town wagons instead of one is obviously better). The last two posts are after you made a case on him, correct? If that is so, it's probably just basic scum play -- when you have a case on you that you can't reasonably answer to you instead attack the other person or make up some meaningless stuff about something else they did instead of actually defending yourself against the case.

Okay, but if Hawk and Fitz are both scum, would they so easily jump off of the guaranteed Hap mislynch for a potential Aubrey mislynch when they could just take the Hap mislynch and wait for me tunnel Aubrey the following day?

You are right that two town counterwagons are better than one but they come at the risk of the scum looking opportunistic when they switch over which is exactly what happened. I also don't like that Hap posted in a different game since this thread open but hasn't posted here for over a day and a half. It's clearly not because he hasn't been on site.

I don't know. I assume Aubrey has played with them, correct? I also assume Hapa hasn't, correct? If that's the case i don't see why they wouldn't.
The other thing in town!Aubrey lynch favored against town!Hapa lynch is that they then have BlackVoid who "derailed the lynch onto a townie" so you again have 2 pushable town wagons on D2.

But okay, let's say fitz and Hapa are mafia here. Why does Hapa vote Hawk "so easily"? Why not try to lynch someone like Kop (or no-lynch)?

[havingfitz]

Coming off v/LA and catching up in other games...I have not poured over D1 to see where I need to revise my reads. I will say that suspicions towards me for not supporting a Hawk lynch are weak. I would have equally avoided a last second wagon change to any of my main D1 town reads. Ex. Rels. If BV had done his 180 on Aubrey and advocated lynching Rels or Doom I would have reacted the same way. Probably towards KidAdm as well. Kop was my only early town read that I was willing to move to at that point in the day which had a semblance of support...i.e. could avoid a no lynch.

BV...you went on about my meta yesterday (which I am happy to bring up when I have lynched scum)...but that meta does not hold true when I am off a scum wagon. Believe it or not...I actually have been known (more often than I like) to not be on scum lynches when I am town. I was wrong on Hawk. Just like I was wrong on Aubrey. As were you wrong on Aubrey, until something clicked for you, and me today.

Town is in a good place right now down 1 scum so if I am today's lynch you still have plenty of buffer for mistakes. And that's not even factoring in the added plus of if scum shoot at an armed town.

My current reads snapshot is:

Town - Blackvoid, Rels....probably Kop. Probably momo (based on Doom...not momo).
Fence - Creature, Cassie, KidAdm
Suspect pool - hapa, OoO, (tbd off the fence?)

As for my hapa question...is my question to hapa (ironic or not) a bad thing? One of the points several people (not sure if I was one of them) made against hapa was that he was ONLY suspecting people who had suspected him first. In hindsight I actually think I might be one he suspected first but atp I was looking for his reply (and overlooking that I might be the answer). Just like when you give an answer to your question to me....Cassie. Near the end of D1 Kop. That would be two.

I have a few other games I am catching up on as well so I might not do a lot of deep posting today (as opposed to light comments/reponses by phone).

P.edit not considering several posts made since #1457.

[outoforder]

Because at the time they had thread presence. What makes them play the way they did? Fitz didn't care much when Hapa or Aubrey was being lynched. He only started caring when Hawk was, regardless of where his vote was until his vote on Kop. Hapa just basically sheeped you in the end. Does it make sense to play like that if they are mafia?

[BlackVoid]

I don't know. I assume Aubrey has played with them, correct? I also assume Hapa hasn't, correct? If that's the case i don't see why they wouldn't.
The other thing in town!Aubrey lynch favored against town!Hapa lynch is that they then have BlackVoid who "derailed the lynch onto a townie" so you again have 2 pushable town wagons on D2.

But okay, let's say fitz and Hapa are mafia here. Why does Hapa vote Hawk "so easily"? Why not try to lynch someone like Kop (or no-lynch)?

I've actually been wondering about Hap's vote on Hawk. Logically, he

should

have been voting Kop. He suspected Kop throughout even towards the end of the day. He barely said anything about Hawk. So, why

wouldn't

a town-Hap argue for a Kop lynch? I'm thinking about the possibility he just cleanly bussed there so pressure then turns to the people who hesitated to vote Hawk (Rels, maybe KidAmn). I suppose it's also possible he just didn't think that a Kop lynch would happen there. But Kop already had three votes. Aubrey and Cass were online which would have made it six and when you showed up, you would have hammered (or I would have reluctantly hammered Kop). Hap had a chance to get a scumread lynched and voted someone else in their place.