Thespival Mafia (Denouement)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

/confirm

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Don't let MeME intimidate you

beneath that cool calculating demeanor is a big softie.

it's that homocidal son of hers you have to watch out for.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I think you're acting a little antsy for 2 random votes there.



we all know the devil is out to get you.

I totally agree on the strategy point, the Jester definitely should come out now in order to avoid a day one lynch which is auto-lose for him.

We need to work together against the Mafia.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Sigh OMG.

I really hate having to explain everything out in detail. It really annoys me.

SO READ THE FOLLOWING VERY VERY CAREFULLY IF YOU ARE JESTER, I WILL EXPLAIN IN DETAIL WHY YOUR BEST MOVE RIGHT NOW IS TO CLAIM JESTER.

You currently have 2 options, claim jester, or not claim jester.

If you do not claim Jester, you might possibly lose if we lynch you on day one or the mafia nightkill you, or some vigilante might nightkill you that causes an automatic loss FOR YOU. I can not stress this point enough, if a mafia dies, he can still win, if a townie dies, he can still win, IF YOU DIE, YOU LOSE.

If you do claim Jester, what would happen?

Town won't lynch you, this is because the TOWN IS TRYING TO WIN BY KILLING THE MAFIA. Since you are not Mafia, the town certainly won't lynch you because it doesn't get them any closer to victory, one dead jester doesn't get the town closer to victory, one dead mafia is what gets the town closer to victory.

Now fast-foward to endgame, there r 3 players alive, one mafia, one townie, one jester. Now everyone knows who the jester is because he claimed Jester. So what will happen? Jester won't vote for the townie or the mafia because that would result in a Jester loss and BOTH PLAYERS KNOW THIS AND BOTH PLAYERS KNOW WHO THE JESTER IS. Thus the Mafia will vote the jester, jester would win, and mafia will win as well. The similar option does NOT exist for the townie, which means this is the only play that would happen. Now consider what would happen if the 3 players alive are 2 townies and a mafia. If the townies r confirmed or cop investigated or any role involved, Mafia is screwed. Even if both townies have no info, the mafia has a 66% chance of winning if he fools them. Now compare that to the Mafia win percentage if its a Jester+Townie+Mafia left. Mafia Win PErcentage goes from a hundred percent(when Jester is present) to 66% OR WORSE. It's obvious from this that a Mafia WILL PREFER THAT THE JESTER BE ALIVE RATHER THAN DEAD because it's obvious that a MAfia would prefer 100% win percentage to 66% at best.

Thus the Mafia will keep the Jester alive, in fact consider the 4 player endgame of Mafia Townie Townie Jester. At this point, it's impossible to lynch the mafia since the jester would never vote for anyone, and it will end in a NL which would get to the 3 player endgame which ends in a Mafia/Jester victory. In fact if we extrapolate further, we see that at every stage of the game Mafia will prefer having a Jester alive than wasting a nightkill on him.

Thus the mafia HAS NO INCENTIVE TO KILL THE JESTER. The only reason mafia could POSSIBLY kill the jester and cause him to lose IS IF THE JESTER DOES NOT CLAIM and they do not know who he is(Jester-Mafia is a COOPERATIVE relationship in this game setup due to the multiple victory possibilities, which means it is best for both sides for the Jester to come out.)

So what would happen if you claimed? You'd basically be untouchable by everyone, and you would win if the game gets to endgame which about 70% of Mafia games do get to. since there is no doubt that this will be a high level mafia game, the likelihood of you winning is fairly high. Greater than 50% of the casaulties in this game will be nightkill or first day lynch, your best chance of avoiding being part of that casaulty count(and thus a loser) would be to claim and get your untouchable status.

My logic is basically ironproof. If you are confused about anything I've outlined PLEASE read it over and think on it again, if you are still confused, just ask me to elaborate any part.

You are doing this game a grave injustice if you do not fully read over why Jester should definitely claim, and you are not playing to the best of your abilities if you do not claim. You would be grossly negligent to the game and the players if you do not claim.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Or is a complete and utter moron.

I think we should ban him from the site.

Or shame him into quitting.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

That came off sounding harsher than I thought it would.


Maybe we would just give him a title like Thok's. Disgrace to Jesters Everywhere.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote: greasy spot

learn to read please.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Why would the town choose to lynch the Jester on day one BM?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

How does the Jester win if the town knows who he is?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I know it's a rhetorical question and I've outlined how he wins, but I want you to explain it so I know that you aren't just blowing smoke right now BM.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Actually I've decided that it's dumb to do back and forth with you because we're moving closer to the deadline and we need the Jester to understand that my case is ironclad.

The only way the Jester wins is by making the Town Lose in the endgame if he has been revealed.

Basically the Jester effectively moves the town one day closer to the endgame if he claims and survives till then.

However LYNCHING the jester does EXACTLY the same thing as not lynching him. By lynching him, we are ALSO moving the game one day closer to the endgame, which is the same thing we do if we leave him alive.

EXCEPT WHEN WE LEAVE HIM ALIVE, WE HAVE A CHANCE OF LYNCHING MAFIA, WHEREAS IF WE LYNCH HIM WE HAVE NO CHANCE OF LYNCHING MAFIA.

So yea, I'd guess keeping him alive is the town's best play.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

OK i am going to explain this again,

The only way the Jester can win if he claims is if we make it to endgame.

This is because it is impossible for him to win before then since we have no incentive to lynch him.

Now at endgame, Jester wins because Mafia want to help him lynch himself to gurantee a win rather than losing to the town.

Basically the Jester moves us one day closer to endgame.

If we were to waste our day one lynch on the Jester, it would ALSO move us one day closer to endgame, it would have the exact same effect in terms of our status vis-a-vis the mafia as leaving him alive.

We do not gain ground on the Mafia by lynching Jester at any time, we can only gain ground on the Mafia by lynching Mafia. That's why it's in our best interests to try to lynch Mafia, that's why we wouldn't lynch the Jester.

Yes the Jester has to make us lose in order to win, but by the time it's in his power to make us win, it's already too late for us. Basically if the Jester can make us lose, then going back in time and lynching him on day one would do nothing for the town, because we would STILL lose if we had lynched the Jester.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

last is last, there's no difference how we lose.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Now you are just being pedantic and nitpicking.

It's annoying and generally stupid.

Stop it. I don't care if I come in dead last or tied for last with the Jester.

A loss is a loss.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

there is no 2nd. Loss is a Loss.

I'm not wasting a lynch just to make sure one person loses, you're the only one in this game that feels this way about it BM.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

This jester is the worst jester ever.

2nd worst jester not half as bad.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

You were the best lover I've ever had in a Mafia game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Because something can both hurt and help the mafia.

It hurts them in the sense that the town knows one person who is not mafia for sure.

It helps them in the sense that they know one person who they don't have to use a nightkill on.

Please read our sentences in context instead of taking them out of context and trying to make it look like they contradict each other. It's craplogic, it's stupid and it's definitely not protown.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

That does a rather poor job of answering the question.

If you believed people were lying to out the Jester, what reason do you have to oppose them?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

BM, do you want the Jester to claim?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Would you prefer the Jester to claim today or tommorrow BM?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

If you prefer a jester claim today, why did you argue against having the jester claim?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

He's attacking you for telling the Jester that we are going to lynch him if he claims before the Jester claims.

Whether he thinks that that is the correct play is consistent with the fact that he thinks you are scummy for choosing to tell the Jester that you want to lynch him and that you believe the best play for the Jester is to lynch him.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

The best play for a townie may be to lynch the Jester. But it is not the best play for a townie to openly state so because it decreases the probability of the Jester claiming and that is something that is anti-town.

He is attacking you because your play during the period of time in which we were trying to get the jester to claim was anti-town since it decreases the probability of the Jester claiming.

Whether he thinks we should lynch the Jester day one is wholly irrelevant to what he is attacking you for.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

appeal to emotion

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

oh no not mith


oh the humanity

and jester claim now please, we can't lynch you.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote RossWilliam

choo choo

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Wait

so you know you messed up, so you know what we are voting you for, but you also have nothing to defend against?

am i reading that sentence correctly?

Also when you say 5 votes is too much, how many votes do you think you should get for what you did?

why that many?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

He isn't close to lynch

what are you talking about..

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

THANK YOU JELLY FOR HONORING US WITH YOUR MOST WONDERFUL PRESENCE.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I did it because I felt a deep and compelling appreciation for your most blessed presence this game.

And cuz I wubs ya.

MeMe feels quieter den I remembers.

*Suspicious Stare*

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

ok

its obvious that whoever this jester is, he/she is a terrible awful player who does not realize that with 2 nightkills happening during the night and only one lynch occuring each day, his/her odds of winning are way better by claiming than not claiming.

that said, let's not beat a dead horse any further.

The Jester is an awful awful player, I'm going to just accept that.

Let's move on, let's just pretend there isn't a jester in the game and lynch some scumbags.

Now I need some complete dupes to follow me around in order to help me get my diagnosis right.

Hapless Dupe Number One will have to disagree with everything I say

Hapless Dupe Number Two will have to agree with everything I say and try to prove that I'm right.

Hapless Dupe Number Three has to act outraged all the time at everything I say.

Hapless Dupe Number Four has to be the complete klutz and have no idea what is going on.

Hapless Dupe Number Five will try to save my immortal soul.

So I just need 5 brave volunteers.

Who is up for it?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Ok so I've got

HD One: Alko
HD Two: Sarc
HD Three: IT COULD BE YOU
HD Four: IT COULD BE YOU
HD Five: MoS

This is a highly prestigious team being put together here.

You should join up while slots are still open.

Once my team is filled, you'd have to think of coming up with a role for yourself and convince me why I need you to be on my team in order to join up.

So yea.

Hop to it.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Holy

I feel that you would be a strong candidate for HD 4

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Sorry Holy

RossWilliams already took the job.

How about HD#6 for you?

HD6: Ridiculously hot female distraction used to boost ratings among male teens. Duties are to look good and constantly need help.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

THE HD WHO IS SUPPOSED TO DEFEND ME FROM ALKO'S CRITICISM IS NOT FULFILLING HIS DUTIES

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Ok time to do our first test of inquiry(trademarked).

unvote

vote Captain Bandwagon

IF Captain Bandwagon shows up as scum, then Wolfcrier is surely scum as well.

IF CB shows up as innocent, then MeMe Talitha AND Holy are surely innocent and can be scratched off the lisit of the possibly scummy and we'd be closer to winning.

Information gain from A CB lynch is pretty solid.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

This is when you guys go

"wow that's genius"

and then vote Captain Bandwagon and lynch him.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Talitha Talitha Talitha.

The one person I'd never lie to, asking me a question like that.

Ahh such is the world.

I do have motives that could possibly be untownly or ulterior.

One of them would be to keep you alive,

not because I believe it would help the town win(how could I know whether something like this could help the town win when I do not know your alignment?)

But simply because I enjoy your company and the grace with which you carry yourself.

Call me selfish for wanting to keep you around but the idea of lynching you is so unseemly that I would rather not go to it.

So yes I guess I do have motives that are untownly, I am unfairly biased towards the people I love on this site.

Because I

always

save the best for last.

*huggles*

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

By the way, Sarcastro just got added to the

Almost Certainly Protown List

(TM)

Who will join him? could it be YOU?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Massive Information Gain from lynch.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Do you like how Wolfcrier/Captain Bandwagon saw my post and collectively went "OH CRAP" and summarily flaked out of the game?

PRetty good huh.

Yup yup

This is the part of the game where you go:

"WOW POOKY THAT'S AMAZING, I sure wish I could've signed up for the Hapless Dupe Program back when it was easy to get in"

But don't worry. I will still accept applications for the HD Program,

Now you just need to have A) A Cool Superpower(To boost ratings) and B) A Creative Pseudonym(Cuz it'd be bad bad if the bad guys knew who you really were) and C) A Can-Do Attitude.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

How about the way they have folded under intense scrutiny?

Much like guilty scum running for the border.

This is the equivalent of 2 crooks deciding to hide overseas after they post bail when they realize they don't have a chance in hell of getting through trial alive.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i have always wanted to lynch a cartoon dog

THANK YOU THESP FOR MAKING MY DREAM COME ALMOST TRUE.

now we just need to actuall y put his head in a noose and pull

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Hey

Don't get out of your HD Role.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Ok guys

even the HD assigned to argue with me has now caved in under the weight of my arguments.

This means that universal support of my lynch CArtoonDog should now proceed.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Alko

The answer is in those three posts you just quoted

Look at them again. Look at what he is saying.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Scum can seem to actively scumhunt.

Not really much of an indicator of anything imo.

kill her.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

*huggles Tali*

Alas Farside, the rest of the game for you will be very soon.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Let's look at Wolfcrier/RossWilliam Interaction.

Wolfcrier:Vote RossWilliam
RossWilliam:Nearly Nothing.

Now Capt. Bandwagon jumps in with a comment "I think Wolf and RW r bussing. VOTE RossWilliam"

Frankly it's the most BS way to support a scumcomrade I've ever seen, "I think he is bussing someone, I think he's scum, so let me put my vote with his vote and support him and push rosswillaim towards a lynch"

Something here does not click. Frankly that statement is full of crap. I'd love to know why scum would decide to "bus" their partners on day one of a closed set up where they have no idea how many baddies are out there and whether bussing would help their cause considering that they could end up being easy targets for a nightkill by a rival group if they should look protown.

Basically what happens if RW gets lynched and shows up town? OH WELL I GUESS WOLFCRIER WASNT BUSSING, it sets up the "RW wasn't scum, thus WC wasn't bussing thus WC is innocent" faulty line of reasoning for later.

It's one of those supporting attacks that not only sets up for when RW shows up innocent but pretty much scripts it out.

But lastly, EVEN IF YOU DO BELIEVE WOLFCRIER IS BUSSING RW, you do not vote RW, you vote WC. Holding RW responsible for what you believe is "bussing" on WC's part is so ass-backwards it's ludicrous.

Yes.

This is the part where you go,

"WOW POOKY WHAT A BRILLIANT ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION, YOU ARE FREAAAAAAKING GENIUS, I WISH I COULD BE PART OF YOUR FANCLUB"

and then vote this cartoon dog.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

How does lynching Wolf tell us more?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Farside, everything I do is based upon my deep and unconditional love of you.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Farside

will you look into my eyes

and tell me

what i need to know?

Baby baby, I need your loving so....

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Why wouldn't I be town?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I have never enjoyed slaughtering my sheep.

Such filthy lies. I am a benevolent shepherd.

purposefully slippery? I prefer cuddly and cute.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Ok obviously we need to come to a collective decision quickly before deadline to get something done.

So I am invoking the emergency war powers act and enlisting players for a quicklynch on somebody.

Sign up for this if you can place a vote sometime between 9pm EST tonight and the deadline and if you are willing to unconditionally follow moi onto a target.

I've printed out the thread and will be doing a rigorious analysis and what not.

and i shake my fist at all those silly people who are so easily cowed by a doc claim.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

unvote

I am very persuaded by MeMe.

She's as good as confirmed at this point.

But that does also mean she is as good as dead.

Quick Farside, choose a target.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Do you feel particularly lucky?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

*passes over the Lasagna*

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote Beep Beep

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

unvote

vote:Monkey

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Hello

I've been thinking for a while about how to play this information but I've decided I might as well just come out and say it.

I watched my beloved Talitha last night.

2 Players targetted her,

One or both may be the killer.

However with 3 kills occuring, I would wager only one of these players is indeed the killer.

I'm pretty sure the protown player targetting Tali other than the killer isn't a cop or doc for obvious reason(view graveyard). So yes, I'm going to give them a chance to claim, come clean about targetting Tali and why you've done so and we can lynch the other person.

Heck the other person might even claim vig and then we can direct a vig around at night.

Either way the information is out in the open.

In 48 hours I am going to assume that the players have no interest in coming clean and I will reveal both names.

Ball in your court.

and honestly, I hate whichever one of you killed her.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

she's scum

duh

i said it yesterday

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Nice peppy attitude beep beep

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

are you an HD btw? i forgot

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

@The idiot protown player who targetted Talitha, stop being stupid and claim.

@BM why does my timing suck? should I wait until I get blown away at night before I claim results?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the prolific nature of the nightkills raises the possibility of multiple deaths per cycle in a protown favor(which means one lynch is not just enough) and also increases my odds of going to the grave with my information.

That obviously makes me coming out more good for us.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Yea I'm totally making shit up.

Let's kill Farside now.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

unvote

vote Farside

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

It was genius play.

Hush

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

trick the person who did target talitha into claiming to have a protown power role in order to get the other person i dont know about lynched.

duh

obv it didnt work, but its no skin off our teeth for trying

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

what r the odds of that

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't know if you are serious or just stupid.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

seriously stupid?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Yea this is some genius line of reasonining going on.

Let's see, Jester about to get lynchced on day one, what should jester claim?

OOH OOH I KNOW

JESTER SHOULD CLAIM DOCTOR.

Then town could lose its balls, and go into the "OH WE CANT LYNCH A CLAIMED DOCTOR ON DAY ONE SPIRAL OF NOOBNESS" and Jester get probably nightkilled.

That's just genius play from a Jester.

But wait

you know what else a Jester could do that'd be a little better?

Claim townie or refuse to claim at all.

That always leads to a lynch.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

no doctor is going to come out and counterclaim on day one

that's so boneheaded bad play lol

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

misguided hot chick

these things fall into mafiaa games all the time

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i've been on spring break(i know really crappy time for spring break)

i'll try to make up for it.

lynch Farside plz

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Yea PJ

Scum are gonna go war of attrition with town in a game with 3 nightkills.

That's genius

what day is it btw?

A lil early for war of attrition wouldn't you say?

If I was scum, there's no way in hell I stick my neck out that far and you know it.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

yea

scum would act as jester

that's good idea PJ

except if a Jester gets lynched or nightkilled.

Then that scumbag is a little bit screwed enh?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I am town.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

*looks PJ in the eyes*

"I am town"

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

battlemage scum too btw

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

that's some sick guilt tripping PJ.

why haven't you promised me anything ?

*taps foot*

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

he's lying through his teeth.

when have you ever see nbattlemage properly think about anything.

he is just stallingto try to keep his scumbududy from hanging.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

What? I did think through all of the downsides/upsides before gambitting.

When you're dealing with multiple nightkills you want to be proactive in going after them.

What was idiotic about the gambit?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

unvote

vote PJ

lets roll

farside probly isnt scum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I promised you

where is your promise PJ?

also i thought about farside some more

she's probly not scum

cmon guys

lynch lynch PJ

he no promisey

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Then why can't you stand looking in my eyes.

*cries into a pillow*

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I sux at this jester thing.

good game guys.

congrats to cam for the pullout at the end.

Now ladies, if you had been part of Mith's Minions. Surely your odds of spotting the devilish cam would've been much greater.

I hear signup fees are waived for people who've played a mafia game with the illustrious Mith.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

On a side note.

I almost convinced myself to claim Jester.

Ah good times.

Thanks for taking us down memory lane again Thesp, I do miss that magical 72 hour gaming marathon we did.(I slept the whole plane ride back)

We gotta do it again sometime.

Thanks for a great game and thanks to everyone for playing.