Thespival Mafia (Denouement)

[petroleumjelly]

/confirm

[petroleumjelly]

Having the jester claim

immediately

is an absolute

must

. Those who are familiar with Thespival know we debated this for about a half hour, and a roomful of highly experienced players came to that conclusion in an objective atmosphere weighing the pros and cons.

Vote: Dani Banani

. Boy, does

that

bring back memories.

[petroleumjelly]

As much as I enjoy voting Dani Banani, I clearly need to

Vote: Greasy Spot

.

The logic here is very simple (although I could go into a

much

more nuanced description, I do not have the time).

The Jester needs to make sure they

are not nightkilled

- if that happens, they

lose

. By not claiming, the Jester runs the risk

every single night of losing automatically

. However, the mafia has

absolutely no incentive to nightkill a Jester

. Why? Because if push comes to shove, if the game gets down to a situation such as the following:

1 Mafia
1 Town
1 Jester

The Mafia would rather have

that

situation over:

1 Mafia
2 Town

In the first situation, the Mafia

at the very least

is going to place either first or second; if the Townsperson votes for the Mafia, the Mafia will need to settle for second place and allow the Jester to win - this will be done in order to avoid a full loss. In the second situation, the mafia has a chance at

losing completely

.

A partial win is better than no win at all, and assuming complete rationality in the mafia, the best move for the Jester is to claim right off the bat.

All players should be

most

concerned with

making sure they do not lose

. There are essentially two choices:

A.) You are either 1st or 2nd
B.) You are either 1st or 3rd

If the Jester does

not

claim, they are opting for Choice B. But why settle for the possibility of being last when you can instead solidate yourself with Çhoice A?

[petroleumjelly]

To be clearer: being second is

not the same the losing

- it is still a win, except you are simply

the second faction to win

. Only third place is "losing".

The only exception is that if the Jester is nightkilled (or lynched Day One - which

will not happen if the Jester claims

). In that case, there is only one winner - either the town or the mafia.

[petroleumjelly]

You win if and only if you are lynched on any day except the first.

Use some logic, please.

If the Jester dies

any method other than lynching past day one

, the Jester

cannot win

, and therefore

loses

.

And any place other than winning is losing.

Exactly.

It is possible for both the Town and the Jester to win. It is also possible for the Mafia and the Jester to win

. The order of winning does not matter - what matters is that factions avoid

losing

, which the Jester does if they are nightkilled.

[petroleumjelly]

Right-o. Jester needs to not be nightkilled.

Now Greasy Spot, riddle me this: can you think of

any

way the Jester can avoid being nightkilled

other

than claiming Jester?

As demonstrated, the Mafia has absolutely no incentive to nightkill the Jester, because the Jester may well be the tool they need in the end to help make sure the Mafia avoids losing.

[petroleumjelly]

Now Greasy Spot, riddle me this: can you think of any way the Jester can avoid being nightkilled other than claiming Jester?

^ This question also needs answering.

[petroleumjelly]

Now that I think on it, I have a topic for discussion - particularly, concerning tyhess's role. After rereading it carefully:

Each night, you

may

select a person to join the Cult of the Couch.

tyhess is not obligated to recruit anybody. To stop possible shenanigans, I suggest that he

not recruit anybody

. If he is town, his ability really does not help the town whatsoever unless he manages to steal votes away from scum. If he is scum, the town has nothing to gain.

There are very few situations I can see where him using his ability would be justified, and that would be

near

an endgame situation where he was seen as a likely innocent, and stealing a vote away from potential scum may be the only way to stop the town from being endgamed or unnecessarily quicklynched.

Of course, I'm innately distrustful of any role with the word "cult" and "recruiter" in it; I'd like to hear some opinions on this.

[petroleumjelly]

If tyhess gets too powerful, the mafia will just try to shoot him as they know that tyhess is against them.

Right, right.

And if tyhess is mafia I suppose the town would just lose because it would probably take like 2-3 days before the scum's vote outnumbered the town's, unless the town has some way to nightkill or daykill him.

FoS: Iammars

.

[petroleumjelly]

Cripes.

Unvote: Greasy Spot

, to avoid premature lynches.

tyhess, what say you about the nature of your (public) role?

[petroleumjelly]

A few idle thoughts:

1.)

I've been thinking about hasdgfas' apparent restriction.

If he suddenly "drops" his restriction tomorrow (or a later day), I would suggest not lynching him unless there is a dead jester or we can be reasonably sure he is not the jester, since "breaking a restriction with no punishment" is an obvious tactic for the jester, if for some stupid reason they do not claim today

I'm also not sure why he has the "Amen"/"Hallelujah" in his posts, since we had nothing like that at Thespival when

we

played Mostly Mute. If it's the case that he is Mafia and there is nothing along the lines of "Monk" in his role-name (where the Amen/Hallelujah came from), I believe it is reasonable to assume somebody in the mafia is experienced enough to know about that particular game and suggested using those particular words. Regardless, it is probably reasonable to assume there is at least one experienced mafiate in any case, so this line of reasoning probably doesn't help things much.

2.)

Reading through, I find it hard to believe Greasy Spot went to such lengths to stall or avoid claiming jester / not jester. I can see how somebody might be confused or frustrated in his position, but

an innocent would have nothing to lose in simply claiming "not jester" straight away

and asking questions about the tactical advantages of the jester outing him/herself afterwards. His priorities seem all wrong.

The sarcastic replies and flippant attitude are also not helping him (not that I think it is scummy per se, but it

is

annoying). He also needs to answer my question for whether or not he can think of a method the Jester can avoid being nightkilled

other

than claiming Jester.

3.)

Upon further reflection, I think that tyhess has either got significant additional powers/mechanics and/or he's neither town nor mafia. If he's neither town nor mafia, he either has separate, unique win conditions or he simply is cult cult. Argh, that CotC is a complete mindfuck.

In the future, I would suggest against speculating as to the mechanics of roles when there have been no nights to verify/disconfirm said speculation. I also disagree with you anyhow; it seems perfectly reasonable for him to have that role and no other abilities, while being either town or mafia.

This almost strikes me as an attempt to poison the well against him in the future should he claim to have no additional abilities.

4.)

I have been watching everybody's toes carefully, but there has been nothing suspicious yet...

[petroleumjelly]

This is an extremely shameless "I am here" post. Please note the utter lack of shame. I will read through the game tonight and make a substantive post at that time.

Note: I expect to be away much of Friday, Saturday, and possibly Sunday due to Mock Trial

. I have sent a PM to the mod to the same effect.

[petroleumjelly]

Mod

: If a hypothetical Sane Cop were to investigate the Jester, would they get a guilty, innocent, or some other result?

1.)

Obviously the jester claiming today is not the best for the jester – but it

is

the best move for the town. It was rather annoying to see so many players arguing against this plan. It only takes

one

extra step to get from "Wait a second, that's not a smart thing for Jester to do" to the surprising conclusion of "And wait another second - but it

is

a good thing for the town".

2.)

For some reason, Post 112 by Captain Bandwagon rubbed me the wrong way (and I find it strange myself considering the plethora of votes on Greasy Spot). Sketching out my general reaction would be something like this:

->

a.)

No indication of whether Captain Bandwagon finds Greasy Spot

scummy

at this point in time as opposed to 'granting a request'
->

b.)

Clearly cannot be a 'pressure' vote for more information when it is done directly and solely from a quote of somebody asking to be voted/lynched
->

c.)

Considering Captain Bandwagon's initial reaction to the "Jester claim Day One" strategy was to argue against it, and his own claim of "I totally know where you're coming from" in [157], I find it difficult to believe he used the fact that Greasy Spot argued against it as a justification for his vote – so

if

there was a basis, it would have to be something else

I completely realize there were votes from other people who

also

did not explain their vote, but this one gave me a different vibe from the others. Later CB claims it was "his [Greasy Spot's] actions" that led CB to think GS was scum in Post 172. So I'm going to ask: what actions in particular were you basing your vote off?

{Coming back}: Looks like it's the sarcastic posts that got Captain B (mentioned in Post 249). That mollifies me somewhat, but I might as well get a fuller explanation.

3.)

Post 192 from Dani Banani is highly ironic. It features a chastisement of tyhess for 'not doing research' while subsequently asking why tyhess is not voting who he finds to be suspicious (while tyhess was, in fact, doing just that). Not

particularly

scummy, but difficult to pass by.

4.)

In Post 230 from Battle Mage, I get a "play-both-sides-of-the-fence" feel. He doesn't like the logic for Jester coming out on Day One, but the only person he mentions as being suspicious for this is mith. At the same time, he doesn't like Dani Bananis' "interaction with the GS wagon" (which – to me -- seemed like Dani Banani expressing sympathy with GS), and he says that post [182] (where I unvote) "smells terrible".

I get the impression that he is claiming to not like the wagon on GS (confirmed in Post 242), but at the same time seems to say that he doesn't want me to have unvoted him and does not want Dani Banani to be lenient as Dani had been in a similar situation as town before. Could I have some elaboration on this? If I am misunderstanding you, please correct me. Has your view changed on this since you have made that post?

5.)

Something about MoS's posts bugs me. I kinda feel like he's just been some random person who walks in the room to say stuff like:

Did you know the average chocolate bar has anywhere between three to eight bug legs in it?

*shrug*

No

, I didn't know that until I made it a point to find a silly example to use here. The feeling is mostly a vibe, but that's the best way I can think to describe it.

6.)

I can't believe you didn't see it, hence my frustration.

When did

you

realize the Jester plan was a trap? Your posts have certainly given me reason to doubt you 'knew all along'.

~~~~~

However.

Vote: wolfcrier

. How's it going, scum?

[petroleumjelly]

wolfcrier, my vote is on you for a few reasons. Here are a few:

1.)

You call mith "very scummy" while at the same time tacitly agreeing to his plan by claiming to not be the Jester.

2.)

You claim that mith's "logic was off" without referring to the logic of other players who agreed with mith.

3.)

The main reason is your Post 273. Earlier you claimed you were "reluctant to vote" (Post 231), yet you seem fine putting the

ninth

vote on Greasy Spot after you had thought mith was "very scummy". You call Greasy Spot both "hypocritical" and "illogical" without explaining how either of those two characterizations apply to Greasy Spot.

4.)

You follow up that post with Post 313, still without explaining how hypocritical (much less illogical) applies to Greasy Spot, and additionally wanting us to "get the day over with".

~~~~~

Some questions for you:

A.)

Why were you "reluctant" to vote earlier, and now you want the day to be over quickly?

B.)

If you believed mith's "logic was off", how would Greasy Spot disagreeing be "illogical"?

C.)

Why have you not explained how you believe Greasy Spot to be both hypocritical and illogical? Additionally,

how

has Greasy Spot been both hypocritical and illogical?

D.)

Has your opinion on the matter changed now that it has been made clear the Jester plan was a trap?

E.)

Did you realize your vote was the ninth vote on Greasy Spot?

[petroleumjelly]

hasdgfas, since the town won't be saying [word] enough for you to use a random ability tonight, then you have no reason to continue following your restriction. "Wanting" to continue using your restriction is not going to cut it.

B. If you are going to use that as evidence.. read all my posts because I I mistook the names because I tried reading all the post at once and the names sorta mixed together.

Please explain who you mistook to be doing what. I am not clear on this.

Where -- in your opinion -- has Greasy Spot been hypocritical?

[petroleumjelly]

Unvote: wolfcrier, Vote: hasdgfas

.

[petroleumjelly]

MeMe already asked you what happens if you break your restriction in Post 414. Your response was in Post 415. Pray tell how you have gone from "powerless night" to "unknown problems"? Why did you not mention that

first

?

[petroleumjelly]

Look. You had four choices if you are telling the truth.

Powerless, Problems

Powerless night

Unknown Problems

Not Telling

I'm asking why you didn't try A or C

before

telling us "powerless night". The order in which are 'revealing' things is appearing more convenient for you than anything else.

[petroleumjelly]

CKD: Please read the rules of Mostly Mute Monk if you have questions about how hasdgfas's claimed restriction is supposed to work. To answer your question, votes do not count towards the two word limit. The same goes for an FoS that is properly bolded.

Hasdgfas, I'm going to be very blunt specifically because I am not inclined to believe you at this point. In addition to the problem I have already pointed out, there are the following problems:

1.)

You have claimed you need the "whole town" to say the respective word(s) in order for you to receive your random power. In Mostly Mute Monk, roles like this only needed

half

the town.

2.)

Your posts seem to indicate that if people say the A-word, you get a random power, but for the H-word. I doubt you would need

both

words to be fulfilled to get a single random power, and if you only needed one of them, I do not feel it was necessary for you to use both of those words in your posts to begin with. If you indeed only need the A-word, it does not make much sense for you to have used the [H-word] first.

3.)

The fact that you have claimed to get a "random" power is disturbing. If you had gotten a

set

power which was specified, your claim would be much more believable. Random powers is essentially the same as claiming an "Inventor", which is not a role I am certain Thesp would include; the effects rely on luck rather than skill.

4.)

Only

if

you have another power (besides that of your "random power" you might gain) can I see how "unknown problems" would really be able to affect you. Thesp can't exactly put another post restriction on you; he can't do more than take away a power you don't have to begin with; he clearly will not modkill you; and to randomly punish

other

players with something that is your doing does not seem feasible.

So. My question for you: do you have an ability other than the random power you might gain if enough people say the correct trigger word(s)?

[petroleumjelly]

Fixing

2

to be more readable, with an extrapolation of a particular thought.

2.)

Your posts seem to indicate that if people say the A-word, you get a random power, but

not

for the H-word. I doubt you would need

both

words to be fulfilled to get a single random power. If you only needed one of them (i.e. the A-word), I do not feel it was necessary for you to use both of those words in your posts to begin with, especially when you began the game with the H-Word. I also doubt you would get

two

random powers if both trigger words were satisfied.

[petroleumjelly]

Unvote: hasdgfas, Vote: wolfcrier

.

[petroleumjelly]

Masons are town, unless otherwise stated.

Scum

wolfcrier
RossWilliam
Monkey

Vote: wolfcrier

.

[petroleumjelly]

Unvote: wolfcrier, Vote: RossWilliam

.

[petroleumjelly]

RossWilliam, would you have made that exact same post if my first post of Day Two had been only:

Vote: wolfcrier

.

... with no mention of any other players?

[petroleumjelly]

If I had voted for Monkey instead of wolfcrier, what (to the best you can speculate) would you have said?

[petroleumjelly]

Is this vote still paired with your total scum list? Because if that's the case I would have probably echoed some good point somewhere that someone else made about Monkey. Like I said, I didn't think it through. I probably would have behaved similary. You may perceive this as scummy behavior, that's up to you, but at this point I think the best thing for me to do is just be honest regardless of consequence. Cutting corners certainly got me in a hole.

A few more clarifications and questions, then (and this is by no means saying I will not have any more after this).

1.)

Can I conclude correctly that you would have found a reason to vote most anyone I happened to vote at the beginning of Day Two (besides a vote on yourself)?

-->

1a.)

If you answered "yes", why is that? Have you found me particularly town, or is it something else?
-->

1b.)

Are you the type of player who votes based on other players' votes?
-->

1c.)

Do you consider yourself a bandwagoner?

2.)

What do you think of Quickben?

3.)

Are you actually interested in hunting for scum? If so, please show me an example in the game where you believe you have honestly made an effort to catch scum.

Note: The longer your response, the better it is for me.

[petroleumjelly]

Unvote: RossWilliam, Vote: wolfcrier

.

[petroleumjelly]

FoS: al_kohaulec

.

You are not the first person to "thank" me for something (I seem to recall Monkey "thanking" me for clearing up hasdgfas's post restriction), but your post seems more ingratiating than it needs to be.

I have noticed a trend (probably affected by experimenter's bias) that when an experienced player thanks another player for something run-of-the-mill (such as

playing mafia

), they are more likely to be scum.

[petroleumjelly]

Jelly, I has Ross marked down as being one of the scummiest players in my notes.

Oh? So:

1.)

You have notes

2.)

You have a list of "scummy players"; and

3.)

Ross was on that list, but was not the scummiest

I'm interested. Who are the other scummy players in your notes? Since you claim to have notes, I also expect a few reasons.

[petroleumjelly]

I don't believe I ever made mention of Ross as scummiest or least scummiest.

Jelly, I has Ross marked down as being one of the scummiest players in my notes.

Please explain these two quotes in more detail, I am not sure I follow you.

Did you know that I was experienced before this post? Even with experience aside, it was just a compliment, what you consider to be just playing mafia may not be just playing mafia to others. I just was complimenting you on something that I felt I should've taken more notice to, but didn't. Not looking for forgiveness here, just stating my side of it.

No, I had no such knowledge. This was why I FoS'd al_kohaulec, but not you - but in my post, I needed to acknowledge that I was not just arbitrarily applying a rule to al_kohaulec when there was at least one other player (that I could recall) who thanked me for something I do not consider especially thankworthy. I know when I first started playing, I would thank people for posting all the time - that has since seemed to be drained my system (at least to my knowledge).

That said,

FoS: Monkey

. I can understand a townsperson being thankful that other people are bothering to do stuff, but (at least in my book) a townsperson is more likely to make something

of

instead of giving those people pats on the head and a dog treat.

I can recall two games off the top of my head where experienced players have thanked others for things which really don't need thanks for (and I believe I have mentioned these same two posts in other games).

1.)

Arafax-scum in Ye Olde Porte Towne. I will note that comments like "thanks for answering my questions" (which I use as town in that same game) does not apply, since the relationship between the thanker and the thankee are by no means the same. [To explain more fully, I was interrogating a particular player very harshly, so there was no way I could have been trying to 'buddy' up with them].

2.)

LoudmouthLee-scum in Newbie #124. I know this isn't strictly a "thank you" post, but the post is basically saying "thanks everybody for being active and academic".

I know I have seen more instances where my rule tends to hold, but these examples should show the 'feeling' I am referring to; both comments just seemed unnecessary, the purpose of which was to get into the good graces of particular players (whether it be the town as a whole, a select few members of the town, or a particular player). I simply got the same type of vibe from al_ko's post.

[petroleumjelly]

Ross:

Would you mind doing a comparison between this post made by DeBlaze-scum in Newbie #505 which I have just recently read with your own Post 547? Do you find any relevant differences? If so, please elaborate.

[petroleumjelly]

Any particular reason you did that, Pooks? Were you trying to undermine my commentary?

I am getting tired of posts which are basically wastes of space. This game is difficult enough already to read given the argument about whether or not the jester should claim, the last thing we need are useless posts like that.

Who do you think is scum? Why?

[petroleumjelly]

It would be nice if some people could answer my questions

It would be nice if you stopped being scum. But I suppose we both know that's not going to happen.

I've answered the questions you have posed that I wish to answer at the moment; why don't you try doing some scum-hunting instead of sitting there complaining?

[petroleumjelly]

With out questions being answered and without random voting it is near to impossible to scum-hunt.

It seems as if my two most pro-town players would be BM and PJ. Both have given extensive research for who they think are mafia. My two pro-mafia would be Ross-after his feeble attempt to get me lynched and hasdfas-for putting in no imput what so ever on why he thinks I, or anyone else for that matter, is scum except for religious praise.

1.)

So far as I can discern, you have only asked questions to myself, RossWilliam, and hasdgfas. I have not answered all of your questions, and I am apparently in your top 2 'most pro-town'; Ross answered your question ("what kind of crap is this?") indirectly by responding to me and others; and hasdgfas can only post two words at a time if he wants to keep with his claimed restriction.

2.)

Can I assume you made a misstatement when you said "without random voting it is near impossible to scumhunt"? I think you want "without non-random votes, it is near impossible to scumhunt".

3.)

Have you noticed that hasdgfas can only post two words at a time? How do you expect him to give much input with such a restriction? Also, do you understand why he is claiming to use two religious words in particular?

I'm the jester, as well as the cult of the couch....

Have you had this role since the beginning of the game? Did you breadcrumb this at all? Why did you choose not to claim on Day One?

[petroleumjelly]

The post you just quoted read to me more like a vote meant to solidify a Greasy Spot lynch than it read to me like a player who was interested in hunting scum. This is evidenced by my questioning your reasoning (that Greasy Spot was "hypocritical" and "illogical"), and as well as the context of your vote (eighth or ninth, or whatever it was).

Contribution =/= hunting for scum. Your posts have not given me any vibes of actually being interested in scum-hunting as of yet.

[petroleumjelly]

What a strange set of interactions. This is in chronological order, all on this page.

1.)

An alt of who?

Nanookthewolf

2.)

Anyway, I finally remembered to read the rest of the game. It was kind of a waste of time, really.

3.)

Also, Monkey is probably just newbie-town, but he's still really annoying me right now.

4.)

Anyway, I finally remembered to read the rest of the game. It was kind of a waste of time, really.

Unvote: Sarcastro

~~~~~

So, a couple questions.

--> Sarcastro:

A.)

If you read the game, how did you miss the entire

discussion

on Monkey being an alt, as well as him

claiming

to be an alt the set of double posts directly

before

you claimed to have read the game?

B.)

Does the fact that Monkey is NanooktheWolf change your opinion on him?

--> Monkey

A.)

Why did you unvote Sarcastro for "reading the game" when it is clear he has

not

read the game by having called you a "newbie"?

[petroleumjelly]

Mod

, wolfcrier voted RossWilliam in Post 580.

I find it curious that RossWilliam has attained a bandwagon, but

not

wolfcrier. It seems like comments on wolfcrier slip off like acid on a duck (random Far Side reference) in terms of how well the town seems to react to it, but any note on RossWilliam equates to somebody voting for him. Is there any particular reason for this?

For those of you voting RossWilliam, please explain to me why you are voting for him – and then explain to me why you are voting RossWilliam over wolfcrier.

[petroleumjelly]

CKD, the longer you force Tally to talk with you, the longer it will take for her to finish reading. You can complain about her posts without forcing her to stop her reread and converse with you.

I know for a fact she is a very busy woman, and she hasn't got all day -- contribution won't cost much... just your voice!

*frolics off humming

Poor, Unfortunate Souls

...*

[petroleumjelly]

Let's move on, let's just pretend there isn't a jester in the game and lynch some scumbags.

I was going to suggest this myself. I'm not going to ignore players I think are scummy on the basis of W[hat-if-they-are-the-jester]IFOM. Probably the absolute

easiest

way for scum to distance from their partners in this game are comments like:

I think X is scummy, but I think they are the jester.

Hooray! Scum can claim to be suspicious of their partners without any of the drawbacks!

^ Note: I would actually bet $1 that at least one scum has already distanced from a partner with a comment along these lines, but that is neither here nor there.

I will try to devote some time to rereading this game, but I expect to be fairly busy soon.

[petroleumjelly]

LMAO again as I realize that MeMe has never once failed to vote me on day one of any game in which we both played.

1.)

How many finished games have you had with MeMe?

2.)

In how many of those games were you scum?

~~~~~

I am not convinced enough of hasdgfas' townieness that I am willing to say

the words

. He claimed something bad would happen to him if he broke his restriction, yet nothing to his knowledge occurred. This could very easily be a fake restriction, the purpose of which being to skirt contribution and 'legitimately' stay under the radar.

[petroleumjelly]

^ Although now that I think on it, if it is a fake restriction,

the words

probably would not technically

hurt

the town either. It is unlikely he would gain abilities from

the words

without also having that restriction.

Eh, I'll think on it.

[petroleumjelly]

And Talitha -- I only look as though I'm voting away from bandwagons because the ones I've started have gotten so few joiners.

I know how it is. I'm not voting with bandwagons; they simply happen to vote with me.

~~~~~

I also agree that Pooky's "plan" is a waste of time, but unless I find something particularly scummy about it I don't much care either way. If it becomes a distraction to the town, I will have to put my foot down, however. Additionally, I would advise people against thinking any of this makes Pooky any more likely to be protown than you would otherwise think. Anyone interested in similar things Pooky has done as scum need only look at Goofball Mafia or Simpsons Mafia, although I'm sure there are other examples.

Pooks, please explain to me why I should vote Captain Bandwagon, and then explain to me how a guilty CB equates to a guilty wolfcrier.

[petroleumjelly]

Dropping by. Sorry I didn't post earlier (and yes, I realize this means I never formally commented on the farside22 pressure prior to the role-claim, but *shrug*).

I agree the leaving Farside22 alone for now is the best option. If she is scum, the situation will hopefully take care of itself in time. In the meanwhile, I am still up for a wolfcrier (or whoever replaced him) lynch.

~~~~~

I will note that Pooky is striking me as trying to be purposefully slippery.

[petroleumjelly]

I would much prefer to lynch farside than scramble around looking for another candidate now.

Besides the fact that she's almost certainly not the jester at this point, I still actually think she's scum in spite of her claim.

The tactic of leaving claimed doc alive for the scum to sort out kinda backfired on me in the last game I was in.

If you still think farside22 is

scum

, that's a fine reason to continue voting for her, but I do not agree that lynching 'scummy' claimed Docs because of

one

bad experience is a very good justification (which is only tacitly implied in your post; if it is incorrect, feel free to correct me).

When it comes down to it, we can reasonably assume that there is probably only one Doctor, but multiple scum. If we lynch the Doctor, it's gone, but if we lynch a scum, there's still going to be more around.

If we manage to lynch one of those

other

scum today, we can still make judgments about farside's claim later in the game -- and if she is telling the truth, her very existence could get scum to target a less 'ideal' target from their perspective, and may also result in her saving a townsperson.

PM quoting?

I certainly hope that was not an attempt to get Farside22 modkilled. Comments like this are completely pointless in-thread. Even

if

you are scum, you would have been better served sending a PM to Thesp. Regardless of alignment, this is bad form.

[petroleumjelly]

Oy, you're right - it was

Sarc

who did that and you who were questioning it. I was only skimming Sarc's posts. The commentary I had directed at you is now hereby directed at Sarc.

[petroleumjelly]

Unvote: JDGA

. I'm concerned about the players on this bandwagon, and given that only a plurality is necessary for a lynch, my vote is not strictly needed to achieve anything at this point. I would still suggest against lynching Farside22 for the time being, but I will not have time to read the game through and decide where I want my vote to be before deadline.

Note:

I will be gone from tomorrow (Thursday) to approximately Sunday, likely without access to a computer.

[petroleumjelly]

This game just got very depressing very quickly. In any case,

Vote: farside22

. I'm honestly not sure what to think of this game at the moment, because farside22 surviving the night under

any

circumstances seems highly unlikely to me.

Very tempted to speculate about night-killing roles, but I'm not sure that will get us anywhere.

[petroleumjelly]

Just high-lighted my vote-notes, comforted to see that all of Sarcastro, Tally, and alky were on the Farside22-wagon yesterday. I think given the dead Doctor, the make-up of the bandwagon, and the fact that Farside22 was not nightkilled are pretty good indicators we've got a scum.

I would suggest we use the two to three weeks we have trying to pinpoint other scum, especially if we can expect the nightkills to continue at this rate.

[petroleumjelly]

Unvote: Farside22

.

[petroleumjelly]

Unvote: Farside22

.

Please provide reasoning for your unvote.

Please provide reasoning for asking me this question.

[petroleumjelly]

Hi. Let's look at your "scum scores":

With farside as unknown alignment
95 PJ
91 RossWilliam
88 hasdgfas
78 farside
53 MoS
50 BM
33 MeMe
33 Holy
33 karma
20 Iammars

With farside as scum
116 RossWilliam
108 PJ
83 hasdgfas
66 MeMe
58 MoS
58 karma
50 BM
33 Holy
25 Iammars

According to your analysis, regardless of farside's alignment, I am either #1 or #2 "scummiest" on your list. You claim to think hasdgfas is scum even though you later claim to have not realized he claims to have a posting restriction (a bit hard to believe for anybody who claims to have read the game). Since hasdgfas is lower on the scale than I am in both cases, you must therefore think those higher are also scum. Basically, you calling the set of {Farside22, PJ, hasdgfas, RossWilliam} all scum, which I have nothing against people doing, but it does strike me as silly given that you have explained any of the reasoning (if there is any) you are employing.

You further fail to realize that all the townies (etc.) have the same pictures, and the same goes for town roles -- if there were two full Doctor roles, then

yes

, they both

would

be Doctor McCoys because that's how mith's cards are set up to work.

Throughout it all, you have failed to give your

own

explanation for your own suspicions, so yes - when you ask

me

why I unvoted Farside22, it

does

strike me as a pot calling the kettle black. How are we to judge

you

when you aren't explaining yourself?

The purpose of my unvote should have been fairly self-explanatory. It is early in the day, my vote is not strictly necessary, and I am not comfortable with Farside22 being lynched before I have time to think it over (which is more likely to longer I leave my vote on her).

[petroleumjelly]

^ Additionally, you claim that with Farside22 as unknown alignment, I am the top of your list; assuming that you do not know Farside22's alignment, your vote on Farside22 (who is fourth on your list) over myself (who is first) does not even make sense.

[petroleumjelly]

I (sadly) have to agree with BM. Pooky mentioned his results last Thursday; people have had time to claim if they were going to do so. If Pooky intends on revealing, we are better off with that knowledge sooner rather than later. The last thing I want is a mad scramble at deadline.

[petroleumjelly]

Obligatory post. I have not had time (read: put aside time) to read this game for longer than I'd care to admit, and it will probably stay that way for this weekend. If it becomes a problem, I may ask for replacement.

[petroleumjelly]

In my procrastination from real life, I was making my vote list for Day Three of this game, and I ran into this doozy:

Mafia wouldn't care to attack claimed Doc #2. Because they can always NK him anyway, they don't need to compromise themselves during the lynch. And the cop is dead. Mafiosi don't have to worry about an unknown doctor protecting an outed cop with results every day.

Summary:

95 # PJ - scum
91 # RossWilliam - scum
33 # MeMe – scum

Hrm. Now let's review:

This game just got very depressing very quickly. In any case,

Vote: farside22

. I'm honestly not sure what to think of this game at the moment, because farside22 surviving the night under any circumstances seems highly unlikely to me.

Very tempted to speculate about night-killing roles, but I'm not sure that will get us anywhere.

...

Just high-lighted my vote-notes, comforted to see that all of Sarcastro, Tally, and alky were on the Farside22-wagon yesterday. I think given the dead Doctor, the make-up of the bandwagon, and the fact that Farside22 was not nightkilled are pretty good indicators we've got a scum.

Right with you, pj.

vote: farside22

yeah. yesterday I was with enough potential doubt not to vote farside, but the odds are so stacked against her claim being valid now that I think it's reached an ultimatum.

vote: farside22

Inconsistency, much? The first three people to attack Farside22 after it was clear he was effectively claiming a second Doc were myself, MeMe, and RossWilliam, in that order. The three of us are on the top of Beep! Beep!'s list as "scum". He then says "mafia wouldn't dare attack claimed Doc #2". This is as inconsistent as inconsistencies go. I would like an explanation for this posthaste.

[petroleumjelly]

Mod

, the vote count in Post 1262 appears to be incorrect; Battle Mage had switched his vote from Farside22 to MeMe in Post #1257. Was this intentional?

[petroleumjelly]

I will regret making this post multiple times over, but I cannot concentrate on the essay I should be writing right now, so I might as well do something "productive".

1.)

I need to emphasize something, because nobody seems to be getting it. I think the best move for the town is to lynch

as if there is not a jester.

Why?

You can bet your bottom dollar that if a scum thinks they have a chance of being lynched,

they are going to try to play like they think a jester would play

. The strategy is so completely obvious, and I know I have done the same as scum in scumchat games (one in particular had the final day last

over an hour

because I had the town so worried I might be a jester).

There has probably been at least one mafiate who has tried to paint themselves (however successfully) as the Jester all game, even without having been put under pressure. Additionally (like I have said before), focusing on the Jester allows a mac-and-cheese (it's

so

easy!) distancing tactic of "I think X (i.e. my partner) might be the Jester".

This is almost like the "Hero" role in Kingmaker; everybody worries about it so much, but the better play is simply to ignore it until you

have

to deal with it. To do otherwise is a waste of time, and will only leave you into second-guessing everything you think.

Lynching people who 'might' be Jester is only going to

take away playing options from the scum

.

I

do not consider the jester "winning" equivalent to the town "losing" when the game continues. If the town gets second, I will

not

be placing it as a "loss" in my statistics.

I would rather lynch the Jester than a townsperson

, when it comes right down to it, and that's how I am going to play.

2.)

I still don't like the general feel from MoS's posts. I've mentioned this before in Post #368. His commentary is sporadic, and his latest attack on MeMe – easily the peak of his activity – appears opportunistic.

[Afternote: It appears MoS mentioned he would be gone for a while in Post #425; I should keep this in mind].

3.)

I dislike Post #394 by Battle Mage immensely.

First he uses WIFOM ("This is rather insulting. That as scum, i would be so controversial so early on and basically invite attention onto myself. ").

Second, he completely misses the initial point of Quickben's post (i.e. "When you know a gambit works for the town, try shutting up").

Third, he attacks Quickben for 'wanting to do the same thing as Battle Mage' (lynch the jester on Day One), which is skirting Quickben's more substantial point: that people who are specifically disadvantaged by plans tend to be the one's who argue against them the most.

Fourth, he suggests that Quickben's commentary is not even worth reading ("You expect me to read the rest of your comments? ").

4.)

hasdgfas, were you told

exactly

what "power" you gained last night?

5.)

Anyone voting for Sarc is dumb. An FoS i can just about tolerate, because there is no doubt that his play is scummy.

FoS's are lame. Dont be a pussy. Make it a vote.

Explain.

6.)

Dont be immature.

*Immaturity*

Explain.

7.)

The more I read Battle Mage's posts, the more I am realizing he has been consistently focusing on finding the Jester more than he has focused on finding scum. Every other post seems to reference somebody possibly being the Jester.

FoS: Battle Mage

.

8.)

How didn't I notice this before? Post 740 is a complete cop-out explanation. Although he technically 'answers' Talitha's question, he pointedly avoids denying the possibility that he is scum.

FoS: Pooky

.

9.)

MeMe explicitly asked the town to "poke holes" in her plan if they thought something was wrong with it. Given the caliber of players in the game, it is unlikely that MeMe saw problems in her plan when she made it; if she

had

seen the flaw, I think it is very clear

she would not have suggested the plan in the first place

. I'm actually inclined to think her plan was made in good faith.

10.)

First, I think I sincerely believe he [Pooky] would not have killed Tally as scum (though obviously his co-scum could have out-voted him), and second, I think this set of plays is more likely to come from a Jester than a scum.

Three nightkills = possibly more than one scumgroup = not necessary for 'co-scum' to kill Tally. Do you have any information which suggests that all this killing is coming from a single group, by chance?

~~~~~

I think I am starting to get a handle on this game.

{Beep! Beep!, Holy, Pooky} all seem intertwined to me – and not in a good way. I would not be surprised one iota if this threesome is all scum together. I do not understand how Beep! Beep! goes from mentioning Pooky has been on "five wagons" to not even giving him a "scum score" based off the voting system. Additionally, when Pooky votes/unvotes without explanation, Beep! Beep! says nothing about it; when

I

unvote without explanation, he is all over me like a pack of dogs on a three-legged cat.

Beep! Beep! calling Pooky "town" for his plan is completely stupid. Why

can't

scum do

exactly what Pooky did

? It runs a 0% risk for scum. Any partners of Pooky would have probably been told in advance about the 'plan', and hence they would not claim. Pooky might even get a town-role to out themselves in the process. If such were to happen, Pooky would then likely point the finger at some random player (who the town probably suspects anyways), and then try to squeeze two lynches out of it. Given that the town has already lost

seven

players, the scum can probably afford a war of attrition, such that Pooky would not be overly concerned about surviving throughout the entire game.

Holy has been implicitly defending wolfcrier/Beep! Beep! all game on the basis of "gee, it looks like he is the jester". wolfcrier/Beep! Beep! has also struck me as individually scummy all game. I also think Pooky is probably individual scum based

solely

on his response to Talitha post I mentioned above.

Holy is the contingency, so I would prefer to lynch either Beep! Beep! or Pooky. I am honestly not sure what to think about Farside22 at the moment. I am not particularly inclined to believe a second Doctor, but I am becoming less and less enthused by those people who have been attacking her.

I want the three of these players to

all comment on each other

. Pooky needs to comment on Beep! Beep! and Holy; Beep! Beep! needs to comment on Pooky and Holy; and Holy needs to comment on Beep! Beep! and Pooky.

I also believe Battle Mage to be individually suspicious, but I cannot say for sure if I think he would be part of this particular grouping; more likely I would need to adjust it completely, but I'm tired and not going to bother.

The biggest problem with this game is that I do not think anybody is particularly town-looking. Everybody I

thought

was probably town has been killed.

Vote: Beep! Beep!

.

[petroleumjelly]

Here is Beep! Beep!'s commentary on Pooky.

My wagon is not so big that I think there is a lot of scum on it. This being said, I do believe that Pooky's vote on me IS scummy. Less so for the others.

Pooky was on FIVE of these wagons
Farside/CB was on THREE
Pj on TWO
Mastermind on TWO
hasdgfas on TWO
RossWiliam on TWO

Pooky's bandwagon vote on me yesterday was very suspicious. I also see the case against farside. Farside might only be more careful than Pooky. I would be willing to vote for wither Pooky or farside today.

I want Pooky to explain in detail why he joined every wagon. Can scum be that brazen and in-your-face?

Pooky was on SIX of these wagons
Farside/CB was on THREE (out of 5 because one wagon was on her)
RossWiliam on THREE
Pj on THREE
Mastermind on TWO
hasdgfas on TWO
MeMe on TWO

But assuming that Pooky is town (I have a hard time to believe that scum would be so blatantly wagonny) and that farside is scum, I have looked back at the previous days wagons:

Since Pooky himself came out, I am free to point out that I noticed that he was cleared by the dead cop. Pooky is a dead teddy bear walking.

I get a solid town vibe from Pooky. His trap didn't work, but only townies would pull that kind of gambit.

Here's what I'm getting from Beep! Beep! posts:

1.)

"Everybody who joined too many bandwagons is suspicious, except for Pooky because I have a hard time believing that scum would be so blatantly wagonny".

2.)

"I think Pooky was cleared by alko_haulec, the Cop", when he asked "Pooky, why are you town?"

3.)

"Pooky is town because of his 'gambit'".

The problems with

1

are obvious; it's completely arbitrary. Beep! Beep! should be listing Pooky in his "scum scores" if his 'scores' are to carry

any weight whatsoever

, because in order for

anybody

to understand them we need points of reference. He has said himself that the "scum scores" are based

solely

on votes and nothing else; if this were true, he would not be peremptorily excluding Pooky.

The problems with

2

have been hashed over by MeMe in Post #1055. This post

perfectly

explains how I find it

incredibly

unlikely that alky had investigated Pooky as innocent.

Note: Pooky's response to "Why are you town" was "Why wouldn't I be town"? This is the second time Pooky has pointedly avoiding claiming town / not town.

The problems with

3

have been pointed out by myself; scum has

every

reason to pull that

exact

type of gambit.

~~~~~

I mentioned at the beginning of the day that I did not want to talk about nightkills, but it appears as though I might have to regardless.

1.)

It is possible that we have multiple Doctors with multiple abilities; anybody who was at Thespival probably remembers the "Doctor" game where we had 'sane' and 'insane' Doctors. This could account for a nightkill or two. (Note, however, that since Farside22 claimed to protect me on Night One, that in order for her to be an 'insane' Doctor I would either have to have been protected that same night, or I would have to be scum, or somebody would have had to nullify Farside's 'protection' on me in some manner).

2.)

I am personally skeptical that one of the kills was from a Vigilante, because I think any Vigilante with a brain would have killed Farside22 last night, given that Monkey was lynched as a Doctor; on the other hand, we may have had a stupid Vigilante trying to nightkill somebody they thought was the Jester.

3.)

The win conditions displayed in the first post only include "the town", "the mafia", and "a jester". Here's where my own metagaming of Thesp comes in.

mith's cards have four distinct scum-groups: mafia, werewolves, Serial Killer, and Cult Leader. There is no werewolf win condition in the first post. There is also no "Serial Killer" win condition on the first post. There is no Cult Leader win condition in the first post. Additionally, if there were multiple mafia groups, I would think Thesp would have altered the win condition to say "You win when at least half of the living players are

mafia

part of your mafia

, or when nothing can prevent the same."

All this suggests to me that there might just be the

one

killing scum-group, and that they might have access to

more

than one killing method.

[petroleumjelly]

Yea PJ

Scum are gonna go war of attrition with town in a game with 3 nightkills.

That's genius

what day is it btw?

A lil early for war of attrition wouldn't you say?

If I was scum, there's no way in hell I stick my neck out that far and you know it.

Here's what's relevant. We've lost seven townspeople, and no scum. There are 14 players left, one of which is the Jester. If you were scum, you would know the minimal size of your scum-group, and would hence be able to judge how many lynches you would need to win, as well as what are likely to be the other scum groups, if any.

Suppose your scum-group is large enough that you would probably be inclined to think the scum-group opposing you is probably a Serial Killer. Your scum-group probably would not have killed Talitha, which means that you would know that whoever

did

kill Talitha was likely either a Serial Killer, or a Vigilante. If you managed to lynch either of those roles, your group would only be

that much better off

with a war of attrition, because you are taking down other killing roles in the process. Even if you managed to get either one of those roles to

claim

, it is possible your scum-group would have the ability to role-block that player, or even nightkill that player. So yes: I can see scum going after a war of attrition on Day Three pretty easily.

yea

scum would act as jester

that's good idea PJ

except if a Jester gets lynched or nightkilled.

Then that scumbag is a little bit screwed enh?

If scum already thought they were going to be lynched, then trying to act as the jester is of no risk to them. Regardless of whether or not the Jester dies afterwards, they will have saved themselves for at least a day. You know as well as I do that scum will claim things they

know

might eventually get them lynched, because they are going to be concerned over

staying alive as long as possible

.

[petroleumjelly]

The only thing off the top of my head is Verbose 2 (where my idea stemmed from), where each mafiate had a 1-Shot kill, to be used on any night (and since the game started with three mafiates, there could potentially be three kills on the same night solely from their group). Also in that game, the Serial Killer could kill up to two people each night.

[petroleumjelly]

For your other comment, I would much rather our Vig - should we have one - try to kill scum (mafia, SK, Cult, whatever) instead of trying to kill the Jester. Believe it or not, if we kill all the anti-town roles other than the Jester, the game is over. If we kill the Jester, the game is

not

over. Guess which one I'm more concerned about killing?

[petroleumjelly]

1.)

I have not

tried

to explain why I think Farside22 is alive; I was only explaining why we may have the number of nightkills we do. I find it incredulous that she is still alive as well, and I was actually the first person to point that out.

2.)

And PJ, of course Pooky isn't talking out loud about his alignment. Of course. We have 3 kills every night. Besides, he'd say "town" no matter what, so I don't get that "point" you believe you are making.

X

You aren't getting it. Pooky has a problem with lying about certain things. If you read his posts this game, whenever he references his alignment, it is always in a sarcastic or roundabout manner. Not once does he say head-on "I am not scum" or "I am town" when put to the flames. He has done this to me before as well.

In fact, you would be well off isolating Pooky's posts in Goofball Mafia. You should note a few things:

A.)

In that game, Pooky faked an investigation result -- it was a 'gambit'. He claimed a guilty result on

me

. Later he retracted it, claiming it was to see my reaction.

B.)

When I directly asked Pooky to tell me he was not scum, he instead linked to a puppy dog with cute eyes, saying something along the lines of "would these eyes lie to you?" Of course, in the process, Pooky never made a definitive statement of whether he was scum or pro-town.

C.)

Pooky tried to get the town into following him by being silly -- in particular, getting people to drink "Pangalactic Gargle Blasters" and additionally giving everybody in the town nicknames.

In case you aren't seeing the parallels, allow me to draw them out:

-->

A.)

Both games Pooky has tried a 'gambit' dealing with investigation results;
-->

B.)

Both games Pooky has avoided direct questions about his alignment
-->

C.)

Both games Pooky has had waste of space posts to 'make the game fun' (in this game, his 6 minions, or whatever he is calling them)

3.)

You KNOW that Pooky is a good target for cop investigation. You KNOW that a cop will leave breadcrumbs, especially with so many nightkills. Can you find another breadcrumb? Good luck.

Here's what I

don't

know:

A.)

I do not know who alky investigated.

B.)

I do not know if alky received a result from his investigation.

C.)

I do not know if alky had an innocent or guilty result if he did receive a result.

D.)

I do not know if the person alky investigated was even

alive

on Day Two.

E.)

I do not know alky's sanity.

F.)

I do not know that if alky had a result, he would even breadcrumb it.

I'm not concerned with looking for breadcrumbs, because he only had a maximum of one investigation, it could have been on anybody, and even if he had a result there is no guarantee he would bother breadcrumbing it, and even if he

did

that does not guarantee his result was accurate.

In particular, I find compelling reasons for alky to

not

to have left a breadcrumb in an attempt to clear Pooky. Having me peruse the game looking for things which "might" have been breadcrumbs is a waste of my time.

4.)

You also completely misunderstand my scum points, which is normal, because I don't want to go into details. But it's not based on how many wagons people are on, though it does have some bearing. It's more subtle than that.

If I'm "completely misunderstanding" something, then you need to

explain it

, instead of claiming your process is 'subtle' without going into detail.

[petroleumjelly]

I am actually inclined to believe Farside22, for a number of reasons.

1.)

One of the most memorable games from Thespival was the Quack Game; it is likely to play a part in this game.

2.)

Thesp -- as a mod -- has shown a general tendency towards being misleading about the sanities of particular roles. Examples of this are very evident in his Paranoia Mafia as well as Sanity Mafia.

3.)

Given the lack of a great variety of win conditions in the front post, I think it is very likely that

at least

one of the kills from last night came from the town. This can be explained by a Vigilante role or a Quack Doctor role in particular.

~~~~~

As an additional note, Thesp's penchant for screwing with sanities is another reason why I'm not even bothering with looking for alky breadcrumbs. Even they were present, it would not indicate to us that they are legitimate. He also likes to include a good number of 'useless roles who think they aren't useless'.

Beep! Beep! (aka DGB) should be very aware of this, seeing as how she was in Sanity Mafia, she was a Doctor in that game, and she actually

killed me

while trying to

protect me

.

That said, I will need to mull over Farside22. I do not particularly like the way she has chosen to play; no matter how bad you think claiming might be, if you are going to claim you're better off playing it straight. If you actually

are

a Quack Doctor and had been lynched yesterday without having claimed your Quack Doctor status (i.e. you would show up as a simple Doctor) with your real targets, the town would be forced to play the rest of the game under the assumption that

somebody

had to have killed mith and Sarcastro, which would effect every decision the town made from that point on.

[petroleumjelly]

Pooky, look me in the eyes and say that.

[petroleumjelly]

Farside22, I would like you to ask the mod whether or not -- if you were a hypothetical Quack Doctor -- you would be able to

kill

scum if you were to protect them.

[petroleumjelly]

The reason I did it that way, CKD, was so that I could send in my own private PM to Thesp asking that precise question and to see if Farside22 claimed something contrary to the result I received. Additionally, Thesp never answered my question of whether a Sane Cop would receive a guilty result on a Jester when I asked it in-thread.

[petroleumjelly]

I hope you know that if you're lying to me, Pooks, my heart will be broken; crushed like a Fabergé egg under a steel-toed boot...

[petroleumjelly]

^

Mind going into detail about that? Your play has been confusing me in general. I will give a list of things off the top of my head (without even isolating your posts) to show this.

1.)

Just recently, you made a list of seven players that could be scum, none of which included me.

2.)

You have claimed that active players (like yourself) who make themselves a 'center of attention' are not likely to be scum. You then fail to apply this reasoning to people other than yourself.

3.)

You start the game being suspicious of myself (along with mith, but not Pooky for some reason) for arguing that the jester should claim Day One. Later you realize you were in the wrong, and you do not reference me as being suspicious for arguing pro-jester-claim again.

You then don't comment on me for a while that I can recall, excepting to say you often confuse Pooky and myself, and that I am a "law unto myself". You "mFoS" me for suggesting we lynch as if there is a not a Jester -- but

again you do not mFoS Pooky about this even though I was in agreement with Pooky

.

That's at least twice you have applied something against

me

but not Pooky. Why? You seem to have a very large blind spot when it comes to Pooky this game. You even give Pooky "townie points" for saying that an acronym means "Appeal to Emotion", which is completely out of place.

Later, you say that somebody (don't recall who you were talking to, probably alky or Sarcastro) "isn't as fishy as PJ" and that you have "uneasy" vibes about me, which comes completely out of nowhere. You have not substantiated how I am fishy to

begin

with, or

why

you claim to be "uneasy" about me.

4.)

Your last post doesn't even seem to contain a logical connector. Basically, it boils down to "If PJ is right about Farside22 being a Quack Doctor, you should lynch him if I die overnight".

[petroleumjelly]

*rubs temples*

1.)

I find it "surprising" because you just recently listed your top seven 'suspects' -- none of which included me -- and now you are suggesting I be lynched tomorrow if Farside22 turns up scum and you die overnight. It seems to me like I've just bypassed at least six people on your list without explanation.

2.)

I don't care one iota about getting 'town points' from you. I do care that you appear to be treating Pooky as if he were on unequal ground from the other players. Both Pooky and I suggest lynching as if there is no jester; you only FoS me. The three most vocal players for the Jester-Claim-On-Day-One Plan was mith, Pooky, and myself; yet the only people you claim suspicion on in this matter was mith and myself. In other words, you are not applying the same criteria to Pooky as you have been applying to other players.

The fact that you included Pooky in your "list of seven" is not really that relevant to me. What is relevant is that you have avoided FoSing him or voting, while doing the same to those players who say the same statements as he does.

3.)

By all means do a reread on me.

4.)

If Farside22 is lynched today and she comes up town, then

unless somebody happens to claim both the mith kill and the Sarcastro kill

, I will definitely be playing under the assumption that she was indeed a Quack Doctor. And if that is the case, then regardless of whether or not you 'buy' it I will have been

correct

. I've already explained my reasoning for thinking a Quack Doctor is likely to be occurring in this game.

There is a lack of scum groups displayed in the first post (for Werewolves, Serial Killer, and Cult leader) and the extra kill last night probably came from a Vigilante going after scum or the Jester; the Vigilante probably did not kill on Night One. Thesp has a penchant for messing with sanities, and the Quack game was very memorable from Thespival. The biggest confusing issue

to me

was that I had to assume Farside22 was

not

a Quack Doctor based on her claimed night-choices; I was instead considering the possibilities of there being a

separate

Doctor who was a Quack. Since Monkey had been lynched yesterday, however, the third kill last night was especially puzzling to me.

Additionally, why are you now applying this theory to only the Farside22 lynch (if it occurs), while not the Greasy Spot lynch or the Monkey lynch? Believe it or not,

if a townsperson believes somebody who is town is on the path to being lynched, they are going to object against it

.

Simply because something

might

be a scum strategy does not discount it from being something a townsperson would also do. Additionally, you are giving those people who have been hopping on Farside22 an extremely easy pass; your last post is in fact almost

inviting

them to lynch Farside22 because at least from your perspective, the person who will look worst if she turns up town will be the person giving reasons

against

the lynch.

[petroleumjelly]

1

Should clearly read "if Farside22 turns up town".

[petroleumjelly]

that's some sick guilt tripping PJ.

why haven't you promised me anything ?

*taps foot*

1.)

Cute answer: Because you have not asked.

2.)

Serious answer: I have already explained to you that I will not be making "PJ Promises" any longer. In case you have forgotten -- and I assure you that

I

have not -- I received quite a bit of flak in "The Promise" thread.

3.)

Also serious answer: Even if I were not to make an explicit "PJ Promise", I have already explained to you that I am going to refrain from promising my alignment being town with you asking, particularly because I know doing so when I am actually town will

harm

me in other games where I am scum and unwilling to make the promise. It's an issue of practicality concerning the metagame on me.

[petroleumjelly]

There are only two things I feel need addressing in that last post.

1.)

Thesp will probably

not

tell us if a Farside22 were a Quack Doctor. We were not told this information in the Quack game at Thespival, if I recall correctly.

2.)

If that happens, i will officially give you a cookie. And then lynch you.

Just thought I'd warn you that you will not be lynching me because I will not allow that to happen. FYI. Feel free to give it the ol' college try, though.

[petroleumjelly]

Hm.

Amen, Hallelujah. More inclined to think Farside22 is scum, now; I had figured last night was a Vig, plus Quack Dog, plus mafia; now that that we have a claimed Vigging and Quack Doc on the same player, giving an unaccounted for kill in that scenario.

No vote really necessary at the moment, and I still think Beep! Beep! is probably scum.

[petroleumjelly]

Farside22 has been on her way to being lynched multiple times; changing her story has been completely unnecessary if she has wanted to be lynched. Furthermore, I have already explained how I am going to lynch without concern for the jester. If Farside22

is

scum, she may very well be trying to play live another day by making you

think

she is a jester, therefore making you afraid to lynch her.

Compare this to Broomhead's play in the original Kingmaker; he claimed Hero very early, and Kings were afraid to execute him thereafter until very late in the game. It's the same phenomenon. Simply because a role is there (or possibly there) does not mean you should fear it at every corner. Additionally, you have been accusing CKD of being jester for quite a while. Not sure when you flipped.

[petroleumjelly]

I don't think it's all that outrageous. I knew I probably should not have even mentioned the possibility of a Quack Doctor, but I wasn't entirely sure I would even survive the night, so I threw my hat in the ring. My take on Farside22 seizing hold of it was because:

(a) If enough people buy it, she lives another day
(b) By doing so, she might discover who actually killed Sarcastro

If she is scum, her move has gained the scum information.

[petroleumjelly]

unvote

vote PJ

lets roll

farside probly isnt scum

*eyebrow*

If

you

are going to vote

me

, I expect a stellar explanation.

[petroleumjelly]

Pooks, are you claiming to

not

remember our conversations about how I am

not

going to make promises about my alignment in games any longer? Because that's the impression I'm getting from you.

Additionally, I never told you "promise". I told you to "look me in the eyes". As it stands, you did not have the word "promise" in your post.

If you would like me to

tell

that I am town, that is simple. I am town.

[petroleumjelly]

<is getting

really

tired of these Beep! Beep!-Battle Mage-Pooky interactions>

Battle Mage, Pooky is now defending Farside22. What do you think of that?

[petroleumjelly]

Battle Mage

1.)

Did you send a PM to Thesp yesterday when you hammered Farside22? I tried to post something

very quickly

after you did so, but the thread had already been locked practically instantaneously.

2.)

Prior to hammering, you asked if anybody had anything pressing to say; after only a couple posts and a few minutes, you then hammered. Why even bother

asking

if anybody has anything to say if you were going to hammer with so few responses?

3.)

Why would you even

bother

hammering in a game where a deadline was coming up anyways,

and

we have plurality lynches (i.e. your vote was not even necessary?

Holy

1.)

What do you think of Beep! Beep! now that she cannot possibly be the jester?

~~~~~

Mod

, can we have confirmation that a 'Seer' for this game is essentially equivalent to a 'Cop'?

I think Beep! Beep! and Battle Mage are scum together. Yesterday was completely unacceptable. Beep! Beep!'s arguments have been

preposterously

bad, and she can no longer even use the concept of Jester to possibly dissuade lynches on herself any longer.

Vote: Beep! Beep!

. This could

so

easily be a Battle Mage vote.

[petroleumjelly]

hasdgfas

1.)

I would suggest breaking your restriction today, but wait until we get a consensus before you do. I'm tired of not being able to read you on account of you not posting anything of substance. Did you get an action last night?

[petroleumjelly]

Mastermind of Sin

You have not been posting. Post something. Make it snappy, and make it good. The longer your post, the better. I want as much commentary on as many things as possible.

I fully realize you are not the only person who has not been posting up to snuff, so do not use this factoid in any way as a 'defense' against your laxness. You seem way more willing to ooze into the background than

you

ought to be.

[petroleumjelly]

mathcam

Give an analysis on Battle Mage and Ameliaslay.

Mr_Gnome_It_All

Explain your position on Beep! Beep!, then analyze MeMe/mathcam.

Iammars

Read through MoS's posts and comment on them. Then give me your position on MGIA, given your earlier comment on the Cult of the Couch Role.

SlaySlay

Analyze CKD and Holy.

CuriousKarmaDog

Analyze Iammars and Ameliaslay.

Beep! Beep!

Die scum die.

[petroleumjelly]

In fact, that whole post reeks of scum trying to get a feel for who's likely to make a good lynch target for the day -- doubly so since you had started to come under pressure yesterday. FOS: PJ for that.

Does it really? That's funny. Let's take a look at the consistency of that thought process:

A.)

Do you think I was trying "get a feel for who would make a good lynch target" while I was attacking three players as a solidified scum group as "lynch-targets"?

B.)

I am interested. You say that if Has were scum, he would have 'thought out his plan' more so his claim would have been smoother. Do you think

I

would have thought out my "plan"? If so, why did I then need to split my questions into multiple posts?

C.)

Do you

really

think I was coming "under pressure" yesterday? That's funny because I feel just the opposite. I seem to only remember the players I already suspected (Beep! Beep! and Pooky) voting for me. Having people I think are

scum

vote for me does nothing to make me feel threatened. I only feel pressured if somebody I think is

town

votes for me, because those are the votes which are necessary for me to actually be lynched.

~~~~~

Other questions for mathcam:

1.)

Why do you feel there are two scum-groups left? How many scum per group do you think there are? Do you think they are two separate mafias? A mafia group and a werewolf group? What are the factions?

2.)

I don't see much of a reason for you

not

to oblige to my request. Your commentary on the game has been lacking in general (partly because you are a fairly recent replacement, no doubt). But as it happens, I have not really gotten a read on either MeMe or you; the best way for me to do that is to have you actually do some analzying. You seem to discard the

advantages

of having people actually post

substance

while only focusing on the possible disadvantages.

~~~~~

I'll have to read the CKD / has exchange again.

[petroleumjelly]

Also FoS Beep for coaching Has through his claim…

This is a bad FoS. If I had been present, I also would have asked for clarification. It's a natural thing to do, and it's likely hasdgfas would have clarified himself regardless of who happened to be present to ask him questions along a similar vein.

[petroleumjelly]

I can definitely see CKD as scum; and it certainly is not inconsistent with being scum

with

Beep! Beep! They have each called each other the Jester, and essentially avoided commenting on each other in detail by falling back on this. If CKD is scum going down and he knows it, FoS's are useless except for distancing purposes (which would explain why his FoS was so bad; he himself has asked hasdgfas clarification questions as well about his claim in general).

A vote is very much not necessary at the moment. We have three weeks, I propose we actually use them.

I would like to point out that Beep! Beep! has not clarified how she got her scum scores until after the Jester has died. As I stated earlier, I think this is because she was trying to portray herself as a Jester early in the game; now that it's no longer possible, she is trying to appear more reasonable.

[petroleumjelly]

Responses to mathcam

1.)

Fine, I can see the difference between tactics and 'strategery' in this context.

2.)

From my point of view, there is no subtlety about it; I accuse a group of players of being scum, and in turn I am voted solely by players within that set. The only thing I feel like I got was a 'backlash', which is something to be fully expected and has happened often enough in the past. I feel no pressure from such situations unless people

outside

of that group (i.e. people I think who are more likely to be town) also vote for me or express substantive suspicion of me.

3.)

There is actually a perfectly good reason why I asked you to talk about the scum-groups. An example of why can be found if you would like to read Dry, Bland Mafia. In that game, I was part of a mafia group of 2 players - this led me to believe that there was also another mafia group of 2 players. This, in turn, affected how I played and how I posted; most tangibly, I left open the possibility for "two mafia groups"

way

more in my posts than I would have if I had been town. If I were town, I almost assuredly would have played under the assumption of "3 mafia, 1 SK". My questioning you about this was to determine if you would do anything similar (such as speculate two small groups, or one large scum group, or bringing up a win condition not contained in the first post) which might indicate you had more information than the average player.

As it happens, I do think ‘two mafias’ is unlikely, unless Thesp altered the win conditions for each mafia. I can’t really even imagine how that would have been run at Thespival. As soon as you ask for “all mafia to open their eyes” you are going to have some problems. And given the lack of other win conditions on the front post, I am actually inclined to think we

do

have a Vig who did not kill on Night One. The fact that I asked you if that was what you thought is related to the above; if you were part of a small mafia group, you may very well be inclined to believe in the presence of another small mafia group (especially given the lack of other win conditions on the front post).

4.)

Your post struck me as a justification for you

not

to analyze particular players. Although you have indeed posted content, that does not change the fact that I have not yet formulated a read on either MeMe or you, which means you have not posted

enough

for my liking. I will point out that you are certainly not the only player who falls in this category.

5.)

I disagree that the town will “work things out” in time. We’ve mislynched three days in a row, and I don’t know about you, but that makes me feel (a) depressed, and (b) angry. I decided overnight that if I survived, I was damned well going to get people to talk more, because I am tired of feeling like I have zero read on half of the town, and the fact that I cannot even understand half of the "logic" that has been presented of late. I have been continually frustrated with the lack of effort in this game overall; we have lynched two ‘obvious’ people (Greasy Spot and Farside22) without many people giving well-thought-out in-game reflections on them, and one ‘last-minute’ person (Monkey). That is

not

what I call “working out”.

Recently, I have been trying to figure out what exactly is the difference between me losing games and winning games as town. I have definitely noticed that the games where I won as town were games where I literally

forced

players into posting (examples I have read most recently are my newbie games and Old Maid Mafia). The fact is I read players better when they post more and post more substantively. If I feel giving out assignments will achieve that end, then that is what I will do.

I also disagree that these questions are “distractions”. Every post in mafia can help pinpoint a scum (Captain Obvious to the rescue). The more you force scum to talk and fabricate reasons for ‘suspecting’ or ‘believing’ somebody, the more likely you are to catch them. Having players

directly

analyze others is not only information

immediately

, but it can also be infinitely informative

later

in the game if we lynch somebody who has done in-depth analyses on a number of players. Those posts can then be scrutinized, and by weighing the justifications they gave for their ‘beliefs’, you may be able to find other scum or possibly townspeople through extension.

Additionally, if somebody were to choose to answer my question over commenting on something interesting happening

right now

, that is just more information for you take into consideration, not less.

[petroleumjelly]

Hi. We have three weeks. Why is everybody placing on second, third, etc votes? I would be freaking PO'd if we quicklynched today, even

if

CKD turns out to be scum.

[petroleumjelly]

Stamps up and down

.

No, no,

no

, that is

exactly

the wrong attitude we need here. We have less than two pages of discussion, with some players not even posting, and "you think we are pretty much done for today"?!

Ugh. I'm going to bed. For the love of all that is good and holy, please stop voting. If you feel like voting for CKD, you can say so without actually

doing

it. The point comes across either way. (In fact, the only way it becomes skewed is if somebody relies on voting patterns way too much. And yes, this is a direct reference to Beep! Beep!).

In fact,

Unvote: Beep! Beep!

, even though I think I'm the only person voting for her at present.

[petroleumjelly]

To respond to Beep! Beep!:

1.)

I asked hasdgfas to break his restriction before he claimed to have a tracking result; you asked him

not

to break his restriction

after

he claimed. The two contexts are quite different.

2.)

Despite you claiming to not rely on your scum scores, you sure go out of your way to post them. You are relying too much on them both for your suspicions so far as I am concerned, as well as to make it seem like you are putting effort into the game.

3.)

Please show me how I 'laid low' in the game. I feel like I have been one of the more vocal players in the game.

~~~~~

The idea about a breadcrumb is that it should be prominent enough so we know u havent breadcrumbed multiple roles at different times. This is too weak

Regardless of CKD's alignment, I do not think his breadcrumb was particularly weak. He crumbed the same role three times in the same post; if he had claimed something else, it would have been quite easy to spot his RB-crumb given that you have three chances to find it. In my experience, players crumb using first letters of sentences all the time. The bigger factor is by the fact that he claimed to have crumbed on page 42 of the game.

~~~~~

Additionally, I am clearly not

so

belieivng of has's claim as everybody else appears to be.

I don't believe has would pull this off. Because we'll hang him tomorrow if he's wrong, and he knows it. So I don't believe you, and I believe has.

hasdgfas just solidified the lynching of Farside22 yesterday by claiming to have killed Sarcastro last night. Given that Farside22 turned out to be a Doc, and I 100% believe she was a Quack Doc who killed her patients, this necessitates that if hasdgfas is telling the truth, Sarcastro was necessarily double-killed (unless there is role deflection / redirection or whatever).

This effectively means that hasdgfas has not proven his role at all. He claimed early in the game that he would get a negative side result from having 'broken his restriction' on Night One, and yet to his knowledge nothing happened.

If he thought he were going to come under pressure today with the off-chance of being lynched, he really might as well

take down another player in the process

. I've said it

before

and I'll say it

again

: war of attrition could be an option to the scum. For all we know, the town is in LyLo, or one lynch away from LyLo. I can

easily

see scum-hasdgfas claiming to have had a false tracking result to get a townsperson lynched as a final flipping-of-the-bird to the town. The game is about a

collective win

, not

individual survival

.

Regardless, this just means I am considering the situation. I am not at all sure which (if either) scenario we are dealing with.

[petroleumjelly]

...

Six sentences

in the same post started with an alternating "R" and "B". That is not happenstance; it was very clearly done as breadcrumb. Most players only breadcrumb things once (such as Clearly... Over... Persnickity for a COP claim). Doing it three times makes it far from weak; this means that if CKD had claimed something

else

, there would be

no way

he would be able to avoid that particular post. That post was very clearly made as a breadcrumb as an RB-claim, and nothing else. By inserting the question "Really?" and additionally using the beginning phrase "Right,", there is no way that post can be seen as occuring from happenstance; he used

awkward language

so that he could get himself to use those particular letters in that particular order.

[petroleumjelly]

*rubs temples*

No, I did not notice the breadcrumb. The point of a breadcrumb is for it

not to be noticed until it is pointed out

. The relevant point here is this:

If CKD had claimed a different role today, I (at the very least) would have isolated his posts and looked for common methods of breadcrumbing roles (the first letter of sentences being one of them). I almost definitely would have found that post, and given the repitition of RB three separate times, he would have completely discredited himself. Breadcrumbs are generally only found when they are being looked for. I have had no reason up until now to scan his posts for crumbs.

As it is, I am still going to isolate his posts and determine whether or not he dropped a different breadcrumb (or more) in other posts, but only when I have the time and patience to do so.

[petroleumjelly]

I HATE THIS GAME AND I HATE HOW STUPID THE PLAYERS ARE.

1.)

Beep! Beep!, I have been even

more

vocal today because I have been particularly

pissed

at how terribly the town has been doing, and additionally, how bad the logic has been for what the town has done. The fact that you "called me out" has nothing to do with anything.

2.)

hasdgfas being "open" to double-kills is

only natural if he is scum

. He will need to have

some

back-up when the town discovers that Farside22 was actually a Doctor. Regardless of his "openness", the Farside22 lynch was pretty much going to happen no matter what after hasdgfas claimed to have vigged Sarcastro.

3.)

Putting "effort" into making scores for voting patterns is not effort towards finding scum, I do not believe. I keep a voting pattern list in

every game I play in

. That is not the same as scum-hunting. Putting scores to them is also not the same as scum-hunting; it is busy-work that allows you to claim suspicions, and then fall back on "Oh well, it was just a voting pattern; guess we had weird voting this game". You are not staking a personal opinion by whipping out scum scores, and that's what makes it a lack of effort.

I could spend all of my time in this game making posts such as "1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 16" ad infinitum just adding +3 to prior numbers; that would certainly take "effort". But it is not effort I am putting into finding scum.

4.)

I completely agree that the weakest portion of CKD's claim is his timing, and the fact that he has claimed to have targeted dead people. The point of

my

post was to attack what I considered to be

bad

reasoning: namely, that his method of crumbing was "weak", something I very much disagree with.

5.)

hasdgfas is in "no such danger"

precisely because he claimed before anybody could put him under pressure

. He has essentially preempted the scenario where people express substantive suspicion of him prior to claiming; by claiming right off the bat, that cannot possibly happen.

[petroleumjelly]

I don't even think it is necessary to even respond to Beep! Beep! any longer. All of my responses should be quite obvious. If anybody has a problem with this, feel free to say as much.

[petroleumjelly]

Been thinking a bit.

First, though: Iammars, please clarify your statement. You are "inclined to believe CKD's claim", or inclined to believe something else?

~~~~~

Given that I have correctly metagamed Thesp at least once in this game so far (by guessing the Quack Doctor before it was even claimed), I do want to remind everybody that:

Ability =/= Alignment

I seem to recall in Sanity Mafia, Thesp included a Mafia Tracker. Even if hasdgfas turns out to be right about CKD, at least for me, it will

not

confirm him as protown in my eyes. I have been thinking that it may be the case that he is a SK who could not kill on Night One due to his breaking his restriction. This would be another method to account for the nightkills, despite the fact that SK is clearly not one of the win conditions on the front post.

Actually, not sure why I haven't asked this question before:

Mod

, is it possible for there to be win conditions other than those presented in the first few posts?

[petroleumjelly]

CKD, please link me to past games where you have breadcrumbed your role, as well as any games where you falsely breadcrumbed as scum. I would like to compare them to this game.

[petroleumjelly]

I will be away from March 13 - 17. By the time I return (March 18), I fully expect everybody to have finished the assignments I have given; any and all players are more than free to analyze me (something I hardly ever ask for in the first place, since I tend to get analyzed in the process of assigning people things anyways). Claiming that it "might help scum who to nightkill" is 100% bullshit; yes, of course it might do that, but more importantly it lets townspeople get reads on other townspeople as well as scum. Every single opinion helps

both

the town and the scum make 'more informed decisions'; live with it. The difference is scum don't need to have information to kill somebody who is not in their group, whereas the town

does

.

This is not a veiled jab at mathcam; in fact, it is very unveiled jab. His 'justification' for refusing to do my assignment is nothing more than skirting the issue with a bad reason provided. I will give a preemptory

FoS: mathcam

should he even attempt to wriggle out of doing my assignment again.

If you would like confirmation that I have a precedent of doing this, look no further than my newbie games (and probably others, but I'm not going to scan all my old games for examples). I will 100% agree that I have also done this as scum (Kingmaker II being an example that comes to mind), but right now I'm tired and I honestly could not care less about that.

Talking = helps the town. Let's get to it.

[petroleumjelly]

I don't care that I have not included myself as one of the people to be analyzed; as I already stated, people have a tendency of watching me 'more closely' when I start running the town in any case. I don't care that certain players get 'special treatment'; them's the breaks. I don't care if Holy and Battle Mage do not have assignments (which they do; Holy's job is to tell me what she thinks about you, and Battle Mage's job was to answer three questions; not all assignments are equal). I don't care that I am not soliciting your opinion, because I think you are scum (this has been gone over, and in case you have forgotten -- which is a doubtful claim given your 'scum scores -- I have not liked wolfcrier from the get-go. I don't care that my 'distribution task is uneven': I never claimed that it was even. I am not so concerned with symmetry as I am concerned with hunting for scum.

I truly, honestly, without a doubt do not care about your beliefs one iota this game. You are playing like DGB-scum; you are over the top and using terrible logic. As PenguinsoftheSerengeti in Lights Out 2, you actually played a more thought-out game, and you were town. The same is definitely

not

happening in this game.

mathcam is absolutely

not

justified in not giving his opinion. In fact, if he does not have his analyses done by the time I return from Arizona, I will make it my sworn duty to attack him at every turn in an attempt to lynch him.

[petroleumjelly]

Beep! Beep!, since when did you go from claiming mathcam and I were scum together to defending mathcam from me? Then give me your reasoning.

[petroleumjelly]

Gawsh, I just keep forgetting how incredibly

scummy

it is to ask people to

give opinions

.

[Note the heavy sarcasm].

[petroleumjelly]

I am stopping myself from swearing (edit: swearing

profusely

) in this post.

Yes, I am being bossy. Why? Because this town

sucks

. Period. We have mislynched three days in a row. My favorite players have all been killed or replaced. The logic has been terrible in this game -- it seems like nobody is even willing to consider alternate possibilities (such as Quack Doctor - the only response I got from that was being

suspected

). I am not having a scrap of fun, and the fact is people's posts have been such crap this game that I am having trouble getting reads on players. And nobody seems to care. Since nobody else is stepping up to the plate, I am as good as anybody to do so.

How am I

not

supposed to be biased? This is a game of mafia. I know my alignment, and I have leanings for alignments on other players. This will necessarily affect my play. My biases then directly affect how 'fair' I am.

Tell me, DGB: what is my agenda? What nefarious deed to you accuse me of plotting by asking people to give opinions?

[petroleumjelly]

Flew back into town yesterday, and I will not have the time to read this game until Saturday (possibly Friday).

[This sentence is here because I cannot post with the same text I used in my last post].

[petroleumjelly]

I had no intention of posting tonight, but I had some free time (i.e. was procrastinating on homework) and thought it would be worth the time to try to get a better meta on Thesp's set-ups (Mini 232, Mini 422, Mini 356) and found I have had a very similar discussion with DGB concerning me asking questions.

Beep! Beep! (and mathcam, if you're at all interested), please reread some of Sanity Mafia starting with my Post 101, and then tell me what you think.

~~~~~

I will mention that none of Thesp's games included a role-blocker of any sort, nor any roles with post restrictions or abilities I would really call 'random'.

[petroleumjelly]

Reasons to disbelieve hasdgfas's claim

1.)

No person in a Thesp game has ever had a post restriction.

2.)

After breaking his 'restriction', there were no tangible negative effects that he or others can see.

3.)

The A-word and the H-word never had anything to do with Thespival. We simply played a regular game of Mostly Mute.

4.)

No Thesp game has ever required for a player to achieve a stated objective in-thread to gain an ability of any sort.*

5.)

No Thesp game has ever had a 'random' ability (such as JoaT).

6.)

He basically has to rely on "doublekill" explanation for the Sarcastro kill on Night Two. Not only that, but he hedged his bets ahead of time by continually brining in double-kill possibility.

7.)

No explanation for why he chose to track CKD.

8.)

Claimed that his stalling for why he was not describing what his card looked like – namely, that he wanted a consensus -- "twas joke". I can actually understand somebody wanting a consensus before claiming something like that, but calling it a

joke

does not make sense to me.

Reasons to believe hasdgfas's claim

1.)

The Mostly Mute game at Thespival was particularly memorable, and no other player has a similar claimed restriction or anything related to that game.

2.)

It is not clear whether hasdgfas had knowledge about this particular game of Thespival (i.e. may not have known to fake this particular restriction).

Reasons to disbelieve CKD's claim

1.)

His breadcrumb was extraordinarily late in the game.

2.)

Although he does have a plausible explanation for the explanation of his late breadcrumb (see: reason to believe #1), it also would be a plausible thing for scum to breadcrumb at that point in time, if he was frightened that Pooky would indeed claim the result that Talitha was targeted by CKD and one other player and he had actually killed Talitha that night.

3.)

At least according to mathcam, CKD did not deny having targeted Pooky (although I personally think voting hasdgfas is a denial in itself).

4.)

Thesp has never used a role-blocker of any sort in any of his games so far.

5.)

He has only claimed to have targeted dead players with his ability.

Reasons to believe CKD's claim

1.)

His breadcrumb actually did come at a logical point in time; Pooky had claimed to watch two players target Talitha, and at that point CKD left his crumb (having claimed to have targeted Talitha on both N1 and N2). His breadcrumb is also very 'solid' in the sense he repeated it three times so there could be no arguments from 'coincidence' thrust against him.

2.)

After having isolated all of his posts, I see no indication of any other breadcrumbs for roles in any of CKD's posts (although his sentences did form the word "tit" quite often, if that is of any significance).

3.)

After having looked at Mini 486 (where CKD breadcrumbed Mason), his crumb-type is consistent with that which he dropped in this game.

~~~~~

At the very least, I do believe that CKD targeted Talitha on N2 (given his breadcrumb in reaction to Pooky), but I am not sure what this says about his alignment as of yet. If CKD is scum, this would essentially necessitate CKD having killed on both N2 (Talitha) and N3 (Pooky), which is certainly a plausible theory (in that an otherwise 'ignored' player kills two experienced players).

I am still deciding what to think about what CKD might have otherwise claimed. He could have simply agreed that he had targeted Pooky last night, but that he was also a role-blocker. Either way, he would be claiming to have targeted two players in a row that had been nightkilled (either {Talitha, RW} or {Talitha, Pooky}). Of course, in so doing he would essentially be confirming that hasdgfas likely has a tracking ability. I am leaning towards the belief that if CKD were scum, he actually

would

deny having targeted Pooky, since it would at least give the town another immediate 'option' for a lynch choice.

Regardless, this is probably a waste of my time. Even if I conclude that I think hasdgfas is scum and CKD is town (which I am actually starting to lean towards, after having reflected on the issue over the course of a small vacation – pending my question at the end of this post, at least), CKD will probably be today's lynch despite what I say.

Question for CKD: What do you mean when you say there are "two pictures" on your card?

[petroleumjelly]

Almost forgot this:

Reasons to Disbelieve CKD's claim

6.)

Accuses Beep! Beep! of "guiding" hasdgfas through his claim, which I do not agree with; what hasdgfas was claiming was clear enough to me, and I can see any player having asked for clarification.

Other matters.

1.)

Yes, BM, I asked you three questions in Post 1477. You also answered them.

2.)

Kick: MoS in the pants

. Jesus criminy, start playing. You have posted about 100 times in "The Lost Boys" Mafia even after it is finished, but you can't find the time to post here? Get your priorities straight. It is difficult for me to imagine a townsperson who knows there have been

nine town deaths and no scum deaths

be

this

lax about a game. I am really starting to get suspicious of you, bub. I can completely understand that you've been away, been playing Brawl, and been having computer problems, but you have never really seemed to me to be a part of the

town

in this game as of yet; you have definitely struck me more as an observer than a participant.

3.)

This is a game, not a job.

I would like to mention that I do consider mafia a job, and not a game. It's been that way for me for over a year.

4.)

The Battle Mage 'interrogation' on Mizzy was not a good one, in my book. What are the chances of a random player replacing into a game being a

lyncher

? Practically none. The chances of this equating to any sort of 'information' was practically none. He does get points for effort, though.

5.)

I obviously will not be pursuing mathcam on the basis that he did not answer my questions while I was gone, but he is now officially on my "makes Jelly very sad" list.

[petroleumjelly]

Reasons to believe hasdgfas's claim

3.)

Immediacy of reaction to Farside22's claiming to have Quack-Killed Sarcastro via a vote on Farside22.

[petroleumjelly]

I am not understanding the "rooftop" image CKD is describing, but I do know the "blocks" image is correct in terms of role-blocker. However, when I woke up this morning I had the distinct feeling that Thesp has commented on role-blockers before, and I managed to find a thread where Thesp shares his opinion on role-blockers:

Here and and here. Of course, in that same thread Thesp

also

mentions how he does not like using Tracker roles (technically not the same as a 1-Shot Tracking ability, but you can judge for yourself) here. He goes further when he claims that he "100% agrees" with Kelly Chen when she says "don't use trackers" in this post.

I'll need to decide what this means. I am not sure I have ever run across Thesp making any commentary on JoaTs or otherwise random roles.

[petroleumjelly]

And actually, the overview of the city is correct -- I had only remembered the children's playing blocks for the role-blocker. Curiouser and curiouser.

[petroleumjelly]

You do realize there is a hell of a lot more things to comment on other than that, right?

[petroleumjelly]

hasdgfas claims that he tracked CKD to targeting Pooky. CKD claims he targeted RossWilliam. That is as contradictory as you get.

I cannot even see a case where hasdgfas can have some sort of 'Sanity' problem, since that would require Thesp to essentially randomly choose a player for CKD to have 'targeted'. Explain to me more fully why you think the two claims aren't contradictory, s'il vous plait.

[petroleumjelly]

Vote: Iammars

.

[petroleumjelly]

mathcam, PJ, is there no scenario where the two players may be town?

Instead of asking me this, why don't

you

shoulder you own burden and tell me what a scenario

would

be like where they are both town. After you do that, tell me what you think the chances are for those scenarios to be the case.

~~~~~

I was reflecting in my last philosophy class (strange, I know) on this game. I think my indecision is stemming from a few things.

1.)

The lack of arguments against hasdgfas. Only until I fully laid out the reasons to disbelieve hasdgfas did anybody really show signs of second-guessing hasdgfas. To me, there have always been a good deal of reasons to keep my eye on him, even from day one. The fact that so many players were accepting of his tracking claim today has niggled at me for a while.

2.)

Those making arguments against CKD seem to be making accusations without considering all of the circumstances. Two examples:

-->

a.)

mathcam (at the very least) accuses CKD of "not denying" having targeted Pooky, and therefore he is more likely to be scum. Not only do I not think this was the case, but we have already seen this argument fall flat on its face earlier in the game when Greasy Spot was being bandwagoned for not outwardly saying "I am not the Jester" (i.e. he did not deny being the Jester).
-->

b.)

A few players have called CKD's breadcrumb very "weak", without taking into account the

reason

his breadcrumb may have been so late (even I did not notice this until after CKD mentioned it), and the fact that his breadcrumb was substantive enough (by fitting "RB" in one post three times) that it was implausible to think he had left

separate

breadcrumbs for the possibility of him claiming

a different

role.

3.)

Although I acknowledge that this point really should not be affecting me as much as it should, nobody has really used the "Why would you block on Night One?" argument against CKD. Generally I see this type of argument being employed against any person who uses a night action which may be detrimental to the town on Night One (RB and Vig being my first couple thoughts that fit this category). I have not really decided what (if anything) this means, but I personally think this is a fairly weak argument to begin with, and (although I do not have any evidence to support this) I beieve scum are more likely to fall back on these sorts of rebuts.

~~~~~

Essentially, the actions of the town seem to be consistent with both CKD and hasdgfas being scum -- although I have a hard time believing they would be part of the same scum group (and it's worse because I also have a hard time believing there are two separate scum groups).

The acceptance of hasdgfas's claim could be indicative of a scum-group who feels it would not be in their best interest to argue with him (because they would "connect" themselves to CKD, and additionally, with two Doctors dead they probably feel that they can "safely" kill hasdgfas overnight anyways with minimal damage to themselves). On the other hand, I would expect at least

somebody

(other than myself, obviously) to try to cast doubt on hasdgfas to gauge the mood of the town to see if a mislynch is possible. But even if it

is

the case that hasdgfas is town and CKD is scum, the arguments being employed against CKD do not seem "up to snuff"; they seem like fairly weak arguments which are not holistic, or representing the game correctly. And yet by that same token,

the

most standard "bad argument" (Why would a town RB role-block on Night One?) has not even been used against him!

I suppose what this comes down to is that the reactions of the players in this game are "not meeting my expectations", and on more than one level.

[petroleumjelly]

And actually, the fact that the arguments against CKD have been generally bad (imho) could just be a further indicative of him being scum and being bussed by his buddies who have to scrounge up any plausible-sounding reason to vote for him. I'll have to think on it more.

[petroleumjelly]

Additionally, I was trying to list all of the players from this game from memory. After checking the front post to see who I missed, I think the following players need to post more:

1.) Iammars
2.) Mr Gnome It All
3.) Mizzy
4.) Mastermind of Sin

The two people I could not recall were Iammars and MGIA. I only remembered Mizzy because I remembered that SlaySlay was in the game (a person who I am more likely to take notice of because we are good friends), and I only remembered MoS because I

already

had him in my mind as somebody who seems to not be posting enough.

~~~~~

Additionally, I was wondering if we might be nearing a time where it may be prudent to have MGIA use his vote-stealing ability. If he is scum, lynching incorrectly today probably loses us the game (since he will steal a vote, and if there is one nightkill tomorrow, it will only take 4 scum to overpower the town). If he is town, he may be the only thing stopping us from losing the game (although if that is the case, we will have likely lost anyways since nightkilling him would return said vote to hypothetical scum). I would like some opinions on this.

[petroleumjelly]

CKD, a few questions for you.

1.)

Please explain why you role-blocked Talitha on Night One. Day One ended on January 23rd. You never mentioned Talitha in a single one of your posts until Feb 3. Point to specific posts; be as detailed as possible.

2.)

After having role-blocked Talitha on Night One, you must have noticed there were two kills. This should have indicated to you that you likely did not role-block a scum who had doing any killing. With such knowledge, why then would you have role-blocked Talitha a

second

time in a row?

In my experience, scum groups tend to have the same player do all the killing (unless they come under suspicion, or are killed) and I expect you have seen a similar trend, so you would have known that your action would likely have done nothing at all, and even the lack of a nightkill would not have given you any information whatsoever to work from. Hence, if your goal was to stop a nightkill, you clearly would have been better off role-blocking a separate player.

[petroleumjelly]

*rests chin on hand*

I am not understanding how players are seemingly prioritizing as near the bottom of their lists. This is a point in the game where I would expect everybody to be active, instead of avoiding the game and claiming they need to do rereads instead of giving their immediate opinions. I am especially ill at ease with hasdgfas's and CKD's attitudes here. Generally, when two people are at

direct odds

with each other and one of them is probably going to be lynched, it rather incites them into

posting more

.

I would actually call for hasdgfas to break his restriction -- it is difficult to read him during this time when he is sticking to two words per post. Chances are he has not received enough of the trigger words to gain an ability, and since he apparently only has a "powerless night" when breaking his restriction, I think the town has more to gain with him breaking it over his not breaking it. Additionally, if he is scum I would rather him not have an additional power (assuming his claim may have any truth whatsoever, which is 100% unverified).

Also -- since nobody else has bothered to comment -- I did some more thinking and I actually think MGIA still should not steal anybody's vote. If he is town, it will not "save" us from losing since scum can just nightkill him anyways. If he is scum, we don't want him to have an extra vote.

[petroleumjelly]

Access to My Opinions = Thought

Access to

Your

Opinions = Posting

Access = Denied

[petroleumjelly]

I hate this town so very much. How is it we have 70 pages of 'discussion' and people still have nothing to say or time to say it in? I

would

formally ask for the scum to kill me tonight if not for the assurity that somebody will then accuse me of trying to appeal to pity/WIFOM/whatnot.

~~~~~

I think there are plenty of reasons to doubt hasdgfas's claim, but CKD has had more than enough time to respond to my questions regardless of any 'constraints' he may claim to have (especially since he is clearly finding the time to post in other games). If you cannot find the time to defend yourself in a "1 v 1" scenario under a deadline, then I am forced to assume (a) you are scum who cannot reasonably defend yourself or (b) so freaking lazy / otherwise distracted that you are not helping the town in any case.

Unvote: Iammars, Vote: curiouskarmadog

.

FoS: Iammars, Mastermind of Sin, Beep! Beep!

I will not be saying the trigger word(s). There is no point in FoSing hasdgfas, since the result of a CKD-lynch will likely be the largest factor on my opinion of him anyways.

[petroleumjelly]

1.) I had a feeling about Talitha's lurking from Day 1. Which is why I put on the pressure as soon as Day 2 started. I also noted there was only two kills, I figured in a game this size there would be 3...figured I had caught scum, which is why I RBed the second time (night 2)...however, when I saw that there was three kills after Night 2, I figured I didnt have scum afterall.

Well, just shot yourself in the foot here. If you really had this claimed mentality, then you would have "figured you didn't have a scum afterall" based on the fact that

Talitha had just been killed as a Townie on Night Two

.

[petroleumjelly]

No, your post did not read that way. The mentality you were presenting was thus:

There were two kills on Night One: therefore, it is likely that Talitha is a scum I successfully blocked. However, there were three kills on Night Two: therefore, I may not have actually been onto scum."

That would have been a fine story to tell if not for the fact that Talitha was simply dead. Refering "seeing three kills" without also saying "seeing Talitha killed" makes it so you are clearly trying to add a dimension to your story that was previously not there.

[petroleumjelly]

DGB, why do you want CKD prodded?

I want CKD to give us his input about the players on his wagon, and the timing of their votes.

I very much doubt this. If you

actually

endorsed this, you might have bothered to take note that CKD thinks I am town -- however, you instead conclude that "PJ and mathcam are scum".

If CKD did come back to the thread, it is quite obvious you would only use those statements which help you, and ignore those statements which do not. Worry not, your time to be lynched will come.

[petroleumjelly]

MGIA, explain why you recruited Beep! Beep! into the cult after the town had specifically come to the conclusion that you should not recruit.

[petroleumjelly]

^ Also, I would suggest nobody vote. If MGIA is scum, he may have stolen a vote on the assumption that the scum vote would outnumber town. I suggest people consider this game in a state of LyLo. I would like to doubt that there are 3 mafia left, but it is certainly possible.

I will point out that if there were 3 scum alive last night, they would have

won

if MGIA is scum and a townsperson had died in place of MoS.

[petroleumjelly]

hasdgfas, did you receive an ability last night?

[petroleumjelly]

Technical addendum:

I will point out that if there were 3 scum alive last night, they would have

won

if MGIA is scum and a townsperson had died in place of MoS,

and MGIA stole a vote from a townsperson as opposed to a scum-partner.

[petroleumjelly]

Having one's vote taken away makes the game very boring for the robbed player.

Have fun...

Translation: "Having my vote take away is a convenient excuse for me to shut up and try to stay in the corner after it has been effectively shown how wrong I have been about practically everything."

[petroleumjelly]

Right, right -- because I'm sure scum would choose their nightkills just to discredit one single player who does quite a bit to discredit herself during the course of the game already.

What matters here is that before Pooky was lynched, you constantly called CKD "The Jester" -- i.e. you thought he was "scummy" but by calling him Jester you had a justification not to vote for him. After Pooky turned out to be Jester, you instead think that CKD is town; I suppose he must have magically lost whatever scumminess you saw in him. Additionally, you never really bothered to give a scenario where both hasdgfas and CKD were town, so your "opinion" made absolutely no sense.

CKD and MoS took opposite "reactions" to you; MoS portrayed the "I knew Beep! Beep! was DGB all along", and CKD took the "Argh, I should have known Beep! Beep! was DGB!". I am thinking they

both

already knew you were DGB, in part due to you being scum with them.

You calling everybody who calls out your logic a "scumbag" is only shooting yourself in the foot.

[petroleumjelly]

MGIA, explain why you recruited Beep! Beep! into the cult after the town had specifically come to the conclusion that you should not recruit.

Three reasons:

1) It's my decision to make. Not anyone elses.

2) There's no way that I can trust that anyone who said anything about not doing so is in fact town.

3) There

was

the possibility that if I didn't the scum vote could have outnumbered town. We still don't know how this game is set up.

I know people's arguments have been that scum would just kill me to get their votes back, but between me and another possibly more helpful role, who would the town rather lose at night?

1.)

If you are town, then I do think it is the town's decision to make. A directed Vig does not change their choice overnight simply because "they make the decision" -- if they do they are not too good of a player (even, I would argue, if they happen to hit scum). If you want to make a choice like that, you ought to be arguing about it ahead of time instead of doing it leaving yourself discredited by not following the guidelines to which the town had agreed.

2.)

You might not "trust" what we say, but a little common sense goes a long way. Your role hurts the town more than it helps the town. Even if you managed to steal a vote from scum, having you killed just replaces the vote and you turn out to be ineffective. Stealing a vote from a townsperson could be disastrous. And of course, if you are scum this was highly convenient timing for you.

3.)

Not really buying this. Two Doctors are dead -- it is probably safe to say that there are very few (if any) ways a player might survive a nightkill in this game. If the scum outnumbered the town today, then in order to keep the game going you would need to (a) have stolen a vote form a scum, (b) be able to lynch a scum, (c) be able to have a scum night-killed while you were also killed which gives your vote back to scum anyways.

Your decision was terribly bad as town, and terribly obvious as scum.

[petroleumjelly]

hasdgfas, did you get an action last night?

[petroleumjelly]

The problem, my dearest goofball, is that I may need to lynch MGIA first. If he is scum and steals another vote overnight, then the town could easily be put into a {3 votes} v {3 votes} situation, or worse.

[petroleumjelly]

Do you want to share your action, hasdgfas?

[petroleumjelly]

The problem, my dearest goofball, is that I may need to lynch MGIA first. If he is scum and steals another vote overnight, then the town could easily be put into a {3 votes} v {3 votes} situation, or worse.

Then nightkill me. Please.

I'll put it on my "list of things to do", then.

[petroleumjelly]

It's not question of whether or not you are "willing to be led"; it's a question of "why didn't you argue for your position prior to making the action", or -- at the very least -- "why did you not inform us you might take a vote prior to actually doing it?". You are more than free to steal votes, but if you are going to do so the town deserves to either know beforehand, or have you argue about the merits for it instead of waiting until after you've done so. You're like the child who sticks a piece of candy in her mouth and then asks "Can I have this candy?".

Stealing votes can be disastrous because (a) a misplaced vote from you is all the more likely to end in a quicklynch [or in fact

be

a quicklynh vote], and (b) if you happen to find one of the scum townish, the town may

never

be able to lynch that person because we will never be able to garner enough votes without your double-vote (or triple-vote, etc). You are accumulating more and more power which allows you to lynch anybody with only a few voters on them, or alternatively, effectively have the town refuse to lynch somebody.

[petroleumjelly]

Issues with your 'issue':

1.)

If the scum thought they knew who was doing the nightkilling other than themselves, this would be quite a bit of information to work off of. CKD claimed he knew who the Vigilante was ("it seems pretty obvious"). Given that Battle Mage died over night, I am going to wager the scum thought he was the Vigilante. Going off of that, they would base their decision for whether or not MGIA stole a vote on who they thought Battle Mage would kill -- if they thought he was leaning towards somebody not in the scum-group, then their chances only increase.

^ And if you think this is far-fetched, it really is not. In Double-Headed Mafia, I was the Mafia Godfather and I figured out how the SK/Vig (turned out to be Vig) was by around Night Three, and I purposely kept them alive because I could always gauge who they were likely to kill. That Vig ended up killing about 3 town roles, and I also got the Vig to kill the Cult Leader (although I had also killed the Cult Leader that night just in case).

So basically, what it comes down to is that if the scum thought they knew who was doing the killing and was able to gauge who they thought that person would kill, then going for the auto-win is certainly not a bad idea.

2.)

Even if the scum happen to fail in getting said auto-win, they clearly have a somewhat plausible argument to make to "explain" why a town MGIA would have stolen a vote against the town's wishes. So in a large sense, there is really little "risk" in stealing a vote and a potential game-winning reward.

[petroleumjelly]

Mod

, in the Cult of the Couch Recruiter role, you state:

You are the Cult of the Couch Recruiter. Your role is public, but your alignment is not. Each night, you may select a person to join the Cult of the Couch. That player must accept, may no longer vote, and their name will be public.

The number of your votes are equal to the number of members of the Cult of the Couch, and they may not be split up among different people.

(e.g. If you and two others comprise the Cult of the Couch, your vote counts for 3 votes.) Should you die, the Cult of the Couch is no more, and former members will regain their ability to vote.

Is the highlighted portion meant to imply that "The number of your votes are equal to the members of the Cult of the Couch

who are currently alive

"? I see nothing about votes disippating once a Cult of the Couch Member other than MGIA dies.

[petroleumjelly]

^ I'll let somebody else respond to that. I am just getting off work, don't want to type up the necessary post. I will also be grading the response(s) on a scale of -10 to 10, where -10 is "supporting Mizzy", 0 is "completely missing the point", and 10 is "spot on".

[petroleumjelly]

[At home]

I was thinking while walking home: we cannot afford to lynch by a "plurality" lynch today, or on any other day from here on out. If do not formally lynch somebody, then all the scum have to do is switch their votes last minute to give somebody "the most votes" so that they will be lynched by plurality. We need to decide on a lynch and actually

lynch

them.

[petroleumjelly]

Current thoughts on MGIA: My gut says that MGIA would't have made this move as pro-town without serious discussion beforehand. Now I haven't played a ton of games with MGIA, but my mental profile of him is as a solid and deliberate player, relying more on his scum-finding abilities than on unorthodox gambits (not that there's typically anything particular unorthodox about using one's role, but when the town has already agreed in thread that it would be best not to, I think it qualifies).

On the other hand

, I could certainly believe that a scum MGIA would be willing to take a chance at an immediate victory by using his role, figuring that even in the worst case scenario it wouldn't be an impossibly hard task to defend his actions. Again, this is just a gut reaction, so I think I need to re-read looking for MoS and CKD links.

How does "on the other hand" fit in? It seems that on both hands you're holding, you are leaning towards MGIA-scum.

[petroleumjelly]

*takes aim*

READ THIS POST CAREFULLY

.

I won't even bother blowing out how bad your "strategy" here is to start off with -- you are not even considering context, explanations for votes, competing wagons, or possible motives for votes. Turning reality into numbers and then trying to fit the numbers back onto reality is a project that is doomed to failure.

I think giving me "town points" for having been on the Greasy Spot wagon is pretty dumb to begin with. As for the other "scum points":

1.)

RossWilliam WAGON
Sarcastro(town)
al_kohaulec(town),
PookyTheMagicalBear(Jester)
*** Battle Mage
*** petroleumjelly

Small wagon on a townie. There may be one scum there. Fifty scum points each.

Things you conveniently miss: This wagon also had wolfcrier (aka

you

) on it in Post #527, as well as CKD-scum in Post #595. Captain Bandwagon also voted later.

This was a wagon on the beginning of Day Two -- I listed the three people I essentially wanted to participate more {RossWilliam, wolfcrier, Monkey}, and was willing to vote them all to start the day. I started with voting wolfcrier, and then switched to RossWilliam after he questioned my list (Post 494) and then made a made a wishy=washy post (Post 496).

I was more than willing to vote all three of them if it could get me a reaction. What's more, I was the first person

on

this "wagon" (Post 497) (so it was not a "wagon" until others agreed with me), and I was the first person

off

this wagon (Post 551) because I was satisfied to his responses to my questions, but I was not satisfied with wolfcrier. If you check the time between the wagon starting and me getting off, RossWilliam made his most substantive posts of the game -- the wagon effectively got him to participate and give opinions, which was the purpose of the wagon. This is already a superb example of why your "analysis" of votes is so useless.

Especially when you tailor it to not mention the fact that both yourself and CKD-scum were also on this wagon.

2.)

JDGA(town) WAGON
Monkey(town), hasdgfa(town), farside22(town), RossWilliam(town)
*** petroleumjelly

Last remaining player, no known scum. A hundred points to PJ.

Say, nice trick. JDGA/wolfcrier is

you

, and I think you are

scum

. I love how 100 of my "scum points" stems directly from me having voted for you. But to make things even better, this wagon once again completely ignores context. When I unvoted RW, I voted wolfcrier again (I was the first to vote wolfcrier in the morning, by the way -- it was only a "bandwagon" because

people voted with me

).

How strange that I

do not remove my vote

for a very long while. Why? Because wolfcrier never satisfied me with his responses to my posts. I only unvoted JDGA because I was concerned with the players on the wagon, and I was going to be leaving for a while and knew my vote was not strictly necessary to lynch anybody.

Now, let's go over this wagon vote-by-vote, because it is quite enthralling.

-->

a.

I start things off with my list and a wolfcrier vote in Post 492. (1 vote)
-->

b.

hasdgfas follows in Post 493. (2 votes)

NOTE

: CKD then comes to save the day by weakly defending wolfcrier in post 495.
-->

c.)

I unvote wolfcrier in Post #497 so I can pressure RW. (1 vote again)
-->

d.)

After I am finished questioning RW, I go back to my wolfcrier vote in Post #551 (2 votes). Also note that during this time, Monkey was finally giving more opinions; the list of people I wanted to participate more was doing precisely that – except for wolfcrier.

NOTE

: CKD somehow completely misses the wolfcrier discussion, but gets "caught up" in the RW and alko cases. Instead of commenting on wolfcrier, he asks who wolfcrier thinks the Jester is. Gosh – CKD later kept calling Beep! Beep! the jester (so he would never have to actually vote for her). Anybody seeing a pattern? CKD actively avoids commenting on wolfcrier until he can call him (Beep! Beep!) the jester.
-->

e.

Tally votes wolfcrier after reading the game in Post #702. Some bandwagon so far – it's taken about six or seven pages to hit three votes. (3 votes)
-->

f.

Monkey votes in Post #709. (4 votes)

NOTE:

wolfcrier drops off the face of the planet, and then needs replacement. JDGA replaces wolfcrier in Post #757. During this time, the Farside22-wagon (getting up to 7 votes) occurs.

The scum were voting for Farside22 while townspeople were voting for wolfcrier

. Beep! Beep! ever-so-conveniently does not mention that these wagons occurred simultaneously.
-->

g.

Talitha unvotes due to replacement in Post #786. (3 votes)
-->

h.

RossWilliam votes JDGA in Post #845. (4 votes)
-->

i.

The final JDGA vote comes from Farside22 in Post #850. (5 votes)

Basically, the wolfcrier/JDGA wagon was incredibly slow. It was always competing against other wagons – to be specific, the failed D2 Farside22 wagon (which had CKD) and the Monkey wagon (which had MoS-scum on it). On Day Three, the Farside22 wagon had both CKD-scum and MoS-scum on it. Hunh.

The D2 Farside22 wagon and the Monkey wagon were both wagons which effectively neutralized the wolfcrier/JDGA wagon. If anything, these were

distraction wagons

away from the real prize. The fact that townspeople were on wolfcrier/JDGA while the scum were on Monkey and Farside22 is not surprising.

What's more, your analysis can just as easily be flipped against you. From

my

perspective,

every single person on the wolfcrier/JDGA wagon was town

, whereas the

other wagons had scum on them

.

Hmmm.

3.)

Monkey OFFWAGON
Sarcastro(town) Beep! Beep!(town)
curiouskarmadog(SCUM)
*** Battle Mage
*** QB/ASlay
*** Iammars
*** petroleumjelly

Offwagon... one scum already. My gut tells me more scum off the wagon than on the wagon. Deadline and all.
Twenty points to all four players.

Now how stupid is this? The people responsible for

lynching

Monkay get "town points", but those who were not voting him – but instead might have been actually onto scum – get "scum points". This is so terrible it hurts instead.

farside22 (town) OFFWAGON
Beep! Beep!(town)
PookyTheMagicalBear(Jester)
*** Iammars
*** AmeliaSlay
*** petroleumjelly

No known scum hiding off wagon? Fifty scumpoints each.

Gosh, I get

more

scum-points for not lynching the Doctor

who I was arguing the whole day for people to consider being a Quack

.

~~~~~

Summary

Basically, the reason I have my "scum points" comes down to this:

-->

A.)

I did not help lynch either Monkey or Farside22.
-->

B.)

I voted for Beep! Beep!
-->

C.)

I voted for RossWilliam at the beginning of Day Two (when he is under no threat of being lynched) for information.

I guess you're right – I really

must

be scummy after all that! The numbers say so! Who cares if you don't even included everybody who was on the wagons? Whee!

[petroleumjelly]

Also, I would like everybody to notice that Beep! Beep! is basically using numbers a shield to avoid actually giving commentary. When she turns out to be wrong, it is just a "statistical anomaly" which cannot be blamed on her. Blow away her numbers and there is nothing there but Wile E. Coyote quivering under a very tiny umbrella.

[petroleumjelly]

Also, you know, it would have really been swell if MoS and CKD has commented on more people. Maybe if somebody had asked them to analyze a person or two directly? It's really too bad nobody ever suggested for such a simple thing to be done. It would even have been even more excellent if somebody had done it at the beginning of yesterday so that they would have the full three weeks to work on it so there would be no excuse to not do a very simple pair of analyses.

*sigh* I suppose we're all just too short-sighted to think of something like that. Oh well.

[petroleumjelly]

If you were actually town and believed in your numbers, you would have taken into consideration the points I just made and altered your numbers.

You missed people voting on the RossWilliam-wagon, including CKD-scum, which is pretty damned important. You give people "scum points" for not helping lynch Monkey and Farside22 without considering that it may be because they are actually voting scum instead of a townsperson -- in other words, your "numbers" has no way to account for competing wagons. Your numbers do not differentiate between types of wagons (except for the deadline wagon). You are not even including the CKD-scum wagon. You do not have an "on wagon"/"off wagon" analysis for each wagon. For the "off wagons" you do consider, you

do not

consider things such as (a) whether those off the wagon are

willing

to vote on the wagon; or (b) the reasons they are not on the wagon -- such as if they are objecting against it, not commenting on it, or pursuing some other lead.

Additionally, you are trying to portray your numbers as an objective reason to lynch somebody, when it completely relies on you being town to begin with. I am very much not missing the point -- I am striking the bulls-eye, and the fact that you are not deigning to respond to these points or even bother altering the problems I have pointed out (and I am sure there are others I have not pointed out) is only all the worse for you.

I made it clear quite a while ago why I am not voting for you right now. I should not have to repeat myself.

[petroleumjelly]

Shoot, not sure why I didn't ask this earlier:

Mod

, can you confirm whether CKD and MoS were part of the same mafia?

[petroleumjelly]

Ah, I knew there was something wrong.

Beep! Beep!'s "analysis" is also completely omitting tyhess/MGIA.

[petroleumjelly]

^

Actually. Beep! Beep!, when did you write up that analysis? Last night? The day before? Today?

[petroleumjelly]

Bah, actually, forget answering that. Thought I was onto something.

[Specifically, I was wondering if Beep! Beep! had omitted MGIA and included Battle Mage as "alive" because she her scum group had originally planned on killing MGIA but not Battle Mage and she had written it during the night (or that she was under this impression whether or not her group planned it). But that doesn't make coherent sense -- she still would have included MGIA as dead in her analysis, and additionally she also would not have known (I assume, at least) that MoS was going to die and show up as scum].

[petroleumjelly]

Beep! Beep!, that is such a terrible post. Things you need to do before anybody should even consider your "scores" (and this is not even bothering with the more substantive critiques about your

method

, just the information you are clearly omitting):

1.)

Include MGIA/tyhess.

2.)

Include Battle Mage as dead and town.

3.)

Show the RossWilliam off-wagon.

4.)

Show that the RossWilliam wagon had CKD-scum and wolfcrier (you).

5.)

Show the JDGA off-wagon.

6.)

Show the Farside22 off-wagon.

7.)

Splitting 100 points for every wagon without a scum on it is loading the game; not all wagons are equal. You are willing to adjust for the "deadline wagon", why not other wagons?

8.)

I do not agree that you should even split

less

points for the deadline bandwagon.

This game has different deadline wagons because we do not need to reach any number of votes to lynch; we only need somebody to have the "most" votes.

If it were necessary to reach a certain amount of votes, it would be understandable, but

not

in this context. A last-minute deadline wagon is the best way for a scum to help one of their partners avoid being lynched. If anything, your analysis ought to give more scum points for hopping on a deadline wagon.

9.)

Make a separate "analysis" without the assumption that you are town.

[petroleumjelly]

10.)

Include the CKD-wagon.

11.)

Include the CKD off-wagon.

[petroleumjelly]

Furthermore, a question on your method:

Do you believe that every wagon has a scum on it? Your analysis certainly seems to assume as much.

[petroleumjelly]

If anybody would like to check just how "effective" this "voting analysis" is, I suggest you isolate Beep! Beep!'s posts -- you already see how ineffective it is from the first few posts. She has been constantly dead-wrong. She starts off by saying that she thought the person she replaced (wolfcrier/JDGA) did not look townish, and that she did not think there was scum on her wagon. Now I am getting 100 "scum points" because I voted for somebody she also did not think looked town, but that I happened to vote with townspeople. This indicates to

me

that there if so many townspeople were in agreement on voting one person, that is because they

were on to something

.

Her analysis is essentially (a) punishes people for not voting to lynch townspeople when obviously scum on those wagons have been shown to be dead and confirmed scum, and (b) punishes people for voting small wagons which did not actually lynch people -- but were instead designed for eliciting information. Conversely, it (a) rewards people for lynching townspeople because they voted along with scum, and (b) rewards people for not joining small wagons, but who could just have easily have "FoS"ed (or even expressed suspicion) in order to avoid being part of a voting analysis, or simply avoided commentary so that they could not possibly be caught in a contradiction or be asked to explain their opinion. Both

suspicion

and

voting

are necessary for a wagon, and not all people who express suspicion

vote

.

Her analysis is a tailoring for scum to (a) not vote on small wagons but to instead

encourage

them, (b) vote on wagons which are likely to end with lynches because of the "Would all the scum have voted this person?"-factor, (c) avoid commentary on players.

Last I checked, all three of those things are things scum do quite often. They like to encourage wagons or incite them without actually placing votes that can be traced back to them. If a partner is in danger, they will very much congregate their votes on one player in order to save their partner (or even to make the exact type of argument Beep! Beep! is trying to make, essentially that "I doubt there are more scum on this wagon"). And they love avoiding commentary because commentary is the best method in which to hang yourself during the Day.

[petroleumjelly]

I am responding to you because there is something inside of me which refuses to let wrong things continue happening if I can stop them. When I notice somebody make a misstatement, I correct them -- it is in my nature (unless I am in a situation where I also do not want to embarrass that person). The same goes for a game of mafia. Regardless of who your analysis happened to claim was the scummiest, I would have argued against it because everything about it is so completely flawed.

Even when I sit down to think on whether your method has any merit, the only thing I come up with are more reasons why it is

bad

. Additionally, people have definitely expressed interest in your posts filled with numbers -- I am fairly certain the largest reasons why "nobody is listening to you" is precisely because your analysis has been so thoroughly discredited by objections made in-thread, and probably thought about them out-of-the-thread.

[petroleumjelly]

Also, continually calling me "more clever", "more eloquent", etc is nothing more than an appeal to emotion. You've been playing mafia for probably over two years (I won't bother to check DGB's join date).

The only reason I am considered "more clever" is because I tend to be

right

about things, and the reason I tend to be right is that I give things a good deal of thought. For every five posts I make in a game, there is probably one post I wrote up and eventually deleted because after writing it I decided I did not so much like my thought process or conclusion. Trying to play "the underdog" here is not getting you any brownie points.

[petroleumjelly]

I'm fairly surprised with mathcam.

Beep: I think there's some pretty good info there, even if I find the numerical assignments somewhat arbitrary. How come only 6 people got rankings, and one of them is dead?

Apparently you yourself thinks there's some "pretty good info" in Beep! Beep! analysis; I am showing that it is very much not. Anybody can whip up a voting analysis. I've done it as town and as scum.

I am not so much claiming that she is "doctoring" her numbers as she is clearly omitting particular things which ought not be omitted. And in a very real sense she

is

doctoring her numbers; I get "100 scum points" because I voted for Beep! Beep! and everybody else on her wagon was town.

Additionally, it is pretty clear you have never played a game with me before, mathcam. In playing here over two years, I've never been lynched as town -- and the reason is because I shoot down bad attacks on me as soon as they come up. I have been lynched as scum a few times (and never from a Cop investigation) precisely because the arguments against are more often good than bad. I am an anticipatory player, as well as a reactive player. You can take this information as you will, or believe it or disbelieve it.

Also, I very much

do

want to lynch Beep! Beep! today. I've wanted wolfcrier/JDGA/Beep! Beep! lynched since about Day Two. However -- and you have already agreed on this point -- it is probably best for nobody to vote yet just in case the scum have something up their sleeve (aka MGIA) in order to secure a quicklynch. The only thing that will stop me from voting her today is (a) if I believe MGIA has a more than I comfortable with chance of being scum and that leaving him alive will potentially lose the game even

if

we manage to lynch a separate scum today, (b) if there is some compelling reason to believe Beep! Beep! is town, or (c) somebody makes a case or has information which suggests that some other player is, in fact, scum.

Also --

like I said before

-- I think a large reason people are not listening to Beep! Beep! is that myself and others have so strongly objected to everything about it (method, motive, arbitrariness, incompleteness). Otherwise numbers tend have a strange effect on people because they are too lazy to read them, and so take them at face value without actually analyzing the numbers themselves (as I have been doing).

Furthermore, in case you have not noticed, in my initial response to Beep! Beep! (the *takes aim* post) I also make a case for exactly why I believe Beep! Beep! is scum. In conversing with her, my chances increase that if she is in fact scum, that I will be able to locate her partner(s) by seeing what (if anything) she changes her stances on when pressed.

My title is "thirteenthly,..." precisely because I

am

thorough when I defend myself (and in fact, the use of that word came from a post where I listed thirteen reasons why Werebear was wrong in suggesting that the claimed mason group in Verbose 2 was a scum group; of course, all three of us masons were town).

Amen!

[petroleumjelly]

I don't much like using this smiley, but that definitely deserves a

1.)

The wagon on you was on Day Two. I was the person who started the wagon. I was not "hopping on the wagon with a bunch of townies" -- the townies hopped on the wagon with me.

2.)

When your wagon occurred, wolfcrier/JDGA had never claimed their role. It had nothing to do with "exploiting a vulnerable, vanilla, townie". If you are referring to my case on you today, I have wanted your role lynched for three days, but circumstance (the last-minute Monkey wagon, the Farside22 fiasco, and the CKD <=> hasdgfas situation) has kept me from doing so. Additionally, the points made against you in that case all come from reading the game in context.

3.)

I do not know if you are strictly doctoring the numbers. But you were (and still are) omitting pieces of information in you analysis, and your failure to amend them is

just as bad

as if you were doctoring the numbers -- so you might as well be doctoring them.

4.)

Suggesting that I would have killed RossWilliams simply to discredit you takes the cake. "Conspiracy theories" are complete crap.

Why hasn't hasdgfas died when he has claimed a JoaT many days ago? Why is the vote stealer still alive? Why is mathcam/MeMe still alive?

Answer:

who cares

? The scum kill somebody every night, and we largely don't know why until after the game is over.

But you know what? I agree.

Vote: Beep! Beep!

. Trying to defend yourself with a conspiracy theory is the last straw, and a rotten one. I was really starting to wonder if you were just being a stupid townie, but now you've just convinced me you're being stupid scum.

[petroleumjelly]

Oh, and offering me a "scummie" is another good line. Very nice.

[petroleumjelly]

You're going to see PJ dead wrong. Since I'm bored voteless vanilla, proving PJ dead wrong is my own personal win condition.

Beep! Beep!, if you are town, I am going to ask that you ask to be replaced. If you are scum, feel free to flail around some more.

[petroleumjelly]

I had actually just left to go to lunch, and was going to come back to unvote because of this:

Well, this was a pretty worthless post -- I really think we need to hear from MGIA again.

... which I was thinking may have been a signal to MGIA to say "I am on-line, if you are on-line please vote Beep! Beep! so we can quicklynch her".

But after that last post by Beep! Beep!, she can just go ahead and die. When you put other factors over your win condition, you should not be playing in the game.

[petroleumjelly]

Townies do not play towards their win conditions by having themselves lynched except for in very rare circumstances. This is not one of them.

Theater is no excuse for playing badly. Your "performance" is a farce. I have "played" personas more than once (as Javert, and as the Satanic Nun in Verbose 2) but that does not stop me from playing towards my win condition.

If you are trying to imply you are a second Jester, I do not believe that.

[petroleumjelly]

The fact that 6 out of the 8 remaining players (the exceptions being our two lurkers Iammars and MGIA) have expressed an interest in lynching Beep is somewhat worrying in and of itself.

Actually, a quick check reveals Iammars is the only player to have never make an attack on Beep, though MGIA's was early on and pretty insubstantial. Hm.

Cam

There are probably 2 scum remaining in the game. If Beep! Beep! is scum, that means there is probably only one scum-partner who might possibly be against her lynching. And even then, they would likely have a strong incentive to simply bus her because her play is so terrible.

-----

I have been wondering off-hand about something that I would like people's opinions on (and this is largely influenced by the notion of Beep! Beep! being scum). Do people think the scum-group was told in advance that Pooky was the Jester?

[petroleumjelly]

Beep! Beep!, when you are asking the town to lynch you and you toss out:

Maybe I *am* playing for my win condition, even if I may profess not to. You decide.

That appears to me to be a threat that it is your win condition is to be lynched (i.e. Jester), which I do not believe.

~~~~~

And yes, your play is terrible not because you fail to eloquent (or whatever it is you are accusing me of being), but because your methodology is all wrong -- I have pointed out multiple flaws with it --

and yet you still try to stick to it

. You are being stubborn for the sake of being stubborn. Your only commentary on my play has come directly from my latest conversation with you; in other words, you are not actually rereading the game in order to comment on people, but you are instead relying on the latest posts, which is failing to take a comprehensive view of the game.

Even if you are town, that will not "prove me wrong". Your play will still have been terrible, and if you try to pull something like this in another game I will push to have you lynched there as well: either you are indeed scum or you being almost as unhelpful a townsperson as you can possibly be. I am nowhere near being "confident" that you are scum -- I rarely ever am. You have not quite reached the point of me wanting to "policy lynch" you, but you are fast approaching it after having refused to ask to be replaced in the game.

My going after you has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that you claim to be vanilla. It has nothing to do with the fact that you are devoid a vote from today. It has everything to do with wolfcrier's reaction to my vote on him on Day Two, and the lack of my being satisfied by any player who has held your role throughout the entire game (that being wolfcrier, JDGA, and now you). Anybody can put "effort" into a game regardless of alignment. What is needed is the right sort of effort.

You would do well to read some of the articles which object to "game theory", the use of creating a model from a situation and then using mathematics to determine what one "should do". There is a whole slew of problems in quantifying values ("scum points"), determining who to consider as eligibile for certain values (live players who you think are town, scum, jester, etc), and so forth. Using mathematics as a tool for social situations is an inherently biased tool. The numbers are meaningless unless you add context to them, and context is precisely what your numbers are missing.

[petroleumjelly]

If you are town,

I will not be the least bit red-faced

. Your play is

terrible

. You are not even

reading the game, you are instead relying on votes

.

As I have already mentioned, not everybody who claims to suspect somebody also votes that person. You are leaving out FoS's, you are leaving out IGMEOY's, you are leaving out pushing on a bandwagon, you are leaving out "I will vote X if conditions Y and Z are met". Even then, voting analysis is meant to be a tool to sent you in a direction to look for scum --

it does not tell you who the scum are

.

When I first started playing mafia, I used voting analyses all the time. Now I hardly ever use them. Why? Because I have discovered over the past two and a half years of playing mafia that they rarely -- if ever -- help. Scum and townspeople alike vote in strange ways: to force your conception of who a scum ought to be voting in any given situation is just dumb. Instead of looking at whether or not there is a vote, you ought to be looking behind the reasoning of the vote (i.e. the intentions of the vote) and work from there.

If you are town, try convincing me of it, because by your own standards you will be just as "red-faced" when you discover that not only has you analysis been wrong up to this point, but it is

still

wrong at this point. I have been

more

than willing to second-guess you, and in fact I am still doing so, but your behavior is only making me want you lynched regardless of your alignment, and I really

hate

lynching people under that mentality because I would rather lynch people on the basis that I think they are scum, end of story. Right now you are making me not even

care

if you are town.

[petroleumjelly]

No posts since Friday? Wherefore art thou slackers?

[petroleumjelly]

Unvote: Beep! Beep!

so I can answer the question without her being hammered in the meantime. If she is scum then the scum gain nothing by me answering (because my answer will be completely contingent on her being town), and if she is town then the question is being asked in earnest. I will try to find time to reread the game under the assumption that Beep! Beep! is town, but I can't promise I will be able to do that any time soon.

[petroleumjelly]

Slowly doing reread. But while I'm at it:

JDGA(town) WAGON
hasdgfas, petroleumjelly, Monkey(town), RossWilliam, farside22

Beep! Beep!(town) WAGON
hasdgfas, Monkey(town), RossWilliam, farside22, Talitha(town), PookyTheMagicalBear

Beep! Beep!, what do you think of this second wagon? The one where every person voting you is not mafia? From my perspective, the following players have voted for you:

1.)

hasdgfas (presumed town)

2.)

Me (I know myself to be town)

3.)

Monkey (town)

4.)

RossWilliam (town)

5.)

Farside22 (town)

6.)

Talitha (town)

7.)

Pooky (Jester, but not mafia)

The most any mafiate has really could have done to you is to FoS you, or to vote you while you were not currently in the process of being bandwagoned (like when CKD voted you and unvoted your twice in a row, seemingly debating whether or not you were the Jester).

I actually just noticed you completely left out this second bandwagon. What (if anything) does it say about your scum scores? There has already been one wagon that has been "proven" (except for hasdgfas) to have been composed

entirely

of non-mafia this game. But by your scores, if anybody from the second wagon was still alive, you would have given them "100 scum points", effectively putting them at the top of your "list".

[petroleumjelly]

Edit:

From my perspective, the following players have voted for you

on a wagon

: (etc, list of players)

[petroleumjelly]

Jesus criminy.

MGIA:

1.)

How many scum groups do you think there are?

2.)

What do you think the scum groups are? Two mafia? Mafia and a Werewolf? Cult? Serial Killer?

3.)

How many members do you think are in each scum group?

I am

this

close to asking to be replaced. This game is almost reaching the unbearable point for me. It's like I'm trying to talk to a roomful of rocks.

God. I need to go to class.

[petroleumjelly]

Posting under time constraint.

I know that before I began my reread of the game, I reread wolfcrier's and JDGA's posts and realized they were not as bad as I had remembered. Most of my bone with Beep! Beep! actually seems to be coming from Beep! Beep! herself, and that

may

just be coming from the fact that I find her completely illogical most of the time. I will try to give the game a fair a reread as possible if I find time, but I have finals for about the next two weeks (the largest factor in why I am considering replacement) so I am worried that I will not be able to read this entire game before the deadline for today hits.

I am definitely not impressed with MGIA right now. He is basically setting himself up for stealing my vote tonight regardless of what happens today.

[petroleumjelly]

Ugh. I still do not have time to read this game in detail (in my two weeks of finals). But (as I mentioned before) we

absolutely have to

lynch somebody with an actual lynch today and not a plurality lynch. A plurality lynch means scum could switch their votes last minute and that'll be that.

Of course, now that we have 36 hours I am sure most people will go into "safe mode" and not bother with anything but the "obvious lynch" (which is Beep! Beep! by a mile, although I am not nearly as convinced of her being scum as I was before).

I also think lynching is better than voting for No Lynch, since there is a strong chance we have a live Vigilante who will bring the numbers down to 5 tomorrow (assuming no double-kills or stopped kills) -- such that if the Vigilante dies overnight the town hopefully has two lynches to go (unless MGIA is scum, clearly).

I will try to skim the live players and vote before I go to bed. Reasoning might be scant, but I'll do what I can.

[petroleumjelly]

Side note: things to note from MoS's posts. [I'm still doing my isolated reread right now].

Personally, I assumed the same thing he did, that tyhess [now MGIA] was either town or cult. If he was mafia, that seems way too overpowered, so I never considered it a possibility.

^ [now MGIA] was inserted by me. I will need to think about how sincerely this statement was made.

He only mentions three instances where people looked more protown than they otherwise would:

1.)

I think RossWilliam is making some rookie mistakes, but I think they are

protown

rookie mistakes. At least he's being honest with his thoughts, even when they don't make sense.

2.)

farside, sadly enough, Beep! Beep! always plays like this. She's a natural Jester. Gives BM's title a run for its money, even. Thing is, though, I think she might act differently if she WAS a jester. I have a pretty good read on her when she's antitown. I've nailed her a couple times as scum, and I've been scum with her in a couple games as well. This doesn't seem like her as scum.

3.)

Personally, I would have been inclined to think you might have been mafia claiming jester, but retracting your claim makes me think it's less likely.

^ This last quote refers to tyhess' Jester claim and subsequent withdrawal.

I'll have to think on this, but chances are night will hit before I come to any conclusions, but my impression of MoS leads me to think MoS-scum is much more likely to call townspeople town (to make them feel all squishy and like he has their back) than his own scum-partners. This is not to say he would not call a scumpartner town-looking, just that I believe he is far more inclined to do so for actual townspeople. Following this logic would lead me to think both MGIA and BB! are town (which I am in no way convinced about). Thoughts on this would be appreciated.

However, one thing does pique my curiosity: DGB, what games have you been scum with MoS in?

[petroleumjelly]

Note: My post will be assuming a single scum group. I can't be bothered to think about competing scum-groups right now.

Players (besides myself) I will not lynch today:

1.)

hasdgfas (obvious reasons)

2.)

Mizzy [AmeliaSlay / Quickben]

I think Mizzy is fairly likely to be town based solely off of AmeliaSlay's posts. Not much detail I can go into, but she asked probing questions, attacked CKD about his claim in a strange way (on a false piece of information – the correction of which did not "help" CKD, so it would be a weak way to distance). Biggest wonder is the attacking of MeMe's plan (which MoS-scum also did), but her points were legit. Instead of claiming MeMe "saw the flaws in the plan" like MoS was pushing, AmeliaSlay instead pushed that MeMe was trying to push discussion towards Jester-hunting over scum-hunting – a different accusation, albeit on the same person. I just feel a scum-Slay would have played more passively (this feeling coming largely from Kingmaker I, which was admittedly a very long time ago).

Thoughts on Everybody Else

1.)

MGIA [tyhess]

tyhess seemed very much to fit the profile of a newbie who was not sure how to use his role, but thought of a plan which could out the Jester (by claiming Jester). tyhess made me think this role was townish. But I have not been the least bit enamored with any of MGIA's play – especially his implied taking of my vote tonight. He claims to be "cursed with being able to see both sides of an argument", but at the same time he claims he is not even bothering to understand the arguments between myself and Beep! Beep!. Suggesting that our arguments are "improvised" is just about the most unbelievable claim I've seen in this game so far (I have seen a good deal of scum arguing with each other, but claiming BB! and I could be doing that is incredible), and claiming "separate scum factions" with only the thought that there "could be" two+ scum groups is not satisfying in the least.

I could still go for a MGIA lynch today, largely because I feel:
-->

a.)

If he is scum and we

do not

lynch him, surviving the night probably means scum win and the game ends
-->

b.)

If he is town and we lynch him, chances are the game will continue

I am

definitely

back-and-forth on MGIA, however, and the thing tugging me towards "town" is tyhess' play.

2.)

Iammars

If 'mars is scum, he is definitely playing the "Gee guys, I don't know about this..." scum without really backing up his position. In other words, he expresses doubt without actively trying to stop the 'bad things' (from his perspective) from occuring.

However, his resistance from the Farside22 lynch (as an example) seemed to largely stem from the thought that she might be the Jester – something scum would definitely have on the mind as well as some townspeople. However, he also mentions he can see 2 Docs as being plausible (given the 2-3 kills per night).

The strangest thing in his posting by far is the out-of-place attack on Battle Mage during the CKD-hasdgfas debate, and his lack of commentary on CKD except that "the two claims aren't contradictory", which he then had to "revise" because he "spent most of today thinking that CKD blocked Pooky", and then he subsequently does not give an opinion on whatsoever.

That could be indicative that he

knew

CKD had killed Pooky, and hence did not think CKD would claim to have targeted a different player to contradict hasdgfas.

I also think his reaction to Beep! Beep! and MGIA (in his very last post) looked a little bit fabricated. Also, using "this person" for both Mizzy and Holy read very weird for me. Link to that post is here. Something about his language choice rubbed me as 'wrong'.

The only dissuasions from an Iammars lynch are (a) he is absent and cannot respond, (b) CKD's attacks on him while he was going through the process of being lynched yesterday [which makes the attacks in themselves perhaps more likely to have been an attempt at distancing, since there would be little to no chance of him actually getting Iammars lynched unless he were shown to be dead and town, or hasdgfas dead and scum].

3.)

Holy

Holy's posts have insinuated that I am scum a few times now.

-->

a.)

I want the three of these players to

all comment on each other

. Pooky needs to comment on Beep! Beep! and Holy; Beep! Beep! needs to comment on Pooky and Holy; and Holy needs to comment on Beep! Beep! and Pooky.

Hmm, I don't think Pooky's attempts to trap scum looks like a scum-plan, he seemed throwing it without nothing to lose feel and hopefully feel that we might bust a sweating-scum-that-worries slipped. And with his ways when launching it, it didn't smell came from scum.
While your recent analysis, smell like it.
As for Beep!, my comments about her already all over the place, I suppose.

-->

b.)

Hm, PJ seems good at propaganda skill, lol. He might be scum, I'm not that sure. But I'm pretty sure with todays catch, farside's claim as quack in the middle of this day feels too sudden, plus her Changing Story of who were targeted/protected by her, not seems pro-town.

I would like to roll, but deadline is in ~6 days, what would we gain with voting PJ now but a sneaking scum?

She does later soften her stance on me (beginning yesterday, still there today). But I clearly am biased towards noticing when people claim to be suspicious of me.

Other than that, Holy is difficult to read. She has begun posting more only in these last couple game days, but her posts have largely been doubting CKD's claim (which I suppose speak in her favor).

The thing I like least about her posts is that she has a tendency to make comments towards people along the lines of "{Commentary}, scum." I dunno – maybe it just feels strange coming from somebody I consider to be a new player. Most of her posts do not seem like they are meant to incite anything except for those, so they seem somewhat out of place to her playstyle (which is seemingly restricted largely to weekends).

Biggest point in her favor is that she seems to eventually get around to her rereads (although frustratingly slowly). I've had scum continue to say they would "reread eventually" and never actually do so, and instead reply to the most recent posts such that they can continue to not take a holistic perspective on the game. [For those interested, that tactic has been effectively used against me at least once, the instance being Stikey-scum in Most Mountainous].

4.)

mathcam [MeMe]

MeMe has always been difficult for me to read. I've played at least four games with her to date. The first I did not really get anything about her gameplay because I lynched her with a Cop investigation on Day One when she was trying to fake a posting restriction (so she couldn't effectively argue with me). The second game I never really got a read on her either way, but sort of just left her alone – she was town. The third game was very similar to the second – never really got a read on her, and she was town.

. The fourth game I replaced in on Day Two, and we were both scum – but she was lynched the day I replaced in from a Cop investigation, so there was really nothing "scummy" for me to be catching in her posts to begin with except for possibly Day One, which were pretty much consistent-looking to me with her town play in all of the other games.

The same seems to apply to this game. Her play seems consistent with her play in other games. But consistency does not a town-MeMe make (nor a scum-MeMe make). MeMe did (however) seem much more "playful" this game than all of the other games. She also seemed slightly less organized than usual, which I do not think is an indicator of alignment (because she was quite organized the time I was scum with her, and appears organized when she is town as well).

There are about 2 things in her posts which make me think she is more likely to be town than scum. The first is that she suggested her plan to begin with – scum would be

very

careful about something like that, I would hope, whereas a townsperson is much more likely to air an idea to see how people respond to it. Secondly, MeMe explicitly called MoS to the thread to argue with her – I do this as town

very

often when I

know

I am right and don't want people to avoid arguing with me. Admittedly in this context if MeMe were scum she would be calling in her own scum-partner to argue with her, but I do not believe I have ever seen scum do this.

Question

: mathcam, did MeMe give you her notes for the game? If so, how well did they coincide with

your

notes?

I did not like – and

still

do not like – mathcam's refusal to answer my questions. I definitely feel that if CKD and MoS had answered them (at the very least) we would have

quite

a bit more information to go off of today. He claims to be worried about information the scum might possibly use against the town, while seemingly not considering the benefits the town gets by forcing scum to give positions, defend them, and try to remain consistent with themselves while showing a clear thought process. That tends to be my biggest method in catching scum, believe it or not.

The biggest point in mathcam's favor is clearly his CKD-attacking. But (and I am not trying to use this as WIFOM to suit my own purposes, but you can believe or disbelieve that as you wish) as scum I probably would have been

very

sure to bus CKD as effectively as possible. After a single read-through, however, it seems legit (i.e. not busing), but if we're both alive tomorrow I will definitely need to reread that portion of the game.

mathcam also mistakes me as a "her" a couple times. *sigh*

Overall, I am probably 55-45 (town-scum) on mathcam. He seems

slightly

more townish than scummish.

Edit:
I also reread MoS's attacks on MeMe's Jester-plan. The MoS-attack was not as vicious as I had remembered it to be, and he was more than willing to go after Farside22 over MeMe (and the eventual replacement mathcam). I can see this interaction as distancing. He definitely went into "corner the prey" mode with Battle Mage and Farside22, but did no such thing with MeMe (although this could clearly just be an indicator that MeMe is the most experienced of the three and would require more delicate handling). Was just checking this to see if I thought it looked like busing or a legitimate attempt at lynching / casting suspicion.

5.)

Beep! Beep!

I am very tired (2:00 am and I need to

be

at work in six hours) so I will have to hold off on this until tomorrow. Probably I'll try to do it during work. I know my last reread had me second-guessing her, but I could probably make a long list (if I wanted to expend the effort) on things she has said which feel completely contradictory to me.

[petroleumjelly]

For the moment, I am most happy with a

Vote: Iammars

. This may switch before deadline. I hate to vote a player who is absent, but he is coming off looking the scummiest from my reread (which has not yet included Beep! Beep!).

I have also asked Thesp to extend the deadline, given that we have two players who are obviously absent from the thread for the time being.

[petroleumjelly]

Unvote: Iammars

. Need to think about this.

[petroleumjelly]

Deadline in about two and a half hours! >< Looks like I can only vote between Iammars and Beep! Beep! at this point. I will decide before deadline and outline my reasons (probably will be rushed).

[petroleumjelly]

Here's where I am currently at:

Possible partners for Beep! Beep! (if she is scum)

• Likely: Holy
  
• Plausible: mathcam, Mizzy [solely for voting Iammars over BB!]
  
• Somewhat Implausible: MGIA [for stealing her vote]
  
• Not Considering: Iammars, hasdgfas, myself

Possible partners for Iammars (if he is scum)

• Likely: mathcam
  
• Plausible: MGIA, Holy
  
• Somewhat Implausible: Mizzy [based on AmeliaSlay and latest vote]
  
• Not Considering: Beep! Beep!, hasdgfas, myself

MGIA has had windows of opportunity to lynch both BB! and Iammars at this point. I'm going to check to see if he posted anywhere on the site during those two windows.

[petroleumjelly]

Okay, MGIA posted five times during the window at which Beep! Beep! was at three votes, and posted zero times during the window at which Iammars at three votes. If BB! is town and MGIA is scum, he missed a good opportunity (whether or not it would be ultimately successful, since he would have to survive the night) to win the game. He is also probably not scum

with

BB! on account of stealing her vote. Slap these pieces of information together (as well as tyhess' early Jester claim) and I think I am more comfortable of thinking as MGIA as "probable town" at this point, which will push him down to "somewhat implausible" on the Iammars scale.

[petroleumjelly]

Vote: Beep! Beep!

Explanation coming up, but voting now gives BB! the maximum time to respond.

[petroleumjelly]

Note sure if I've done this yet: Amen, Hallelujah!

1.)

Iammars is absent. If he is town, he may be a power role. If he is scum and not replaced, he has a much higher chance of missing a night-choice than Beep! Beep! does.

2.)

BB! has seemed consistently a little bit over the top for me this game. I tend to think she plays a more mellow game as town.

3.)

Interactions with CKD had them both calling each other Jester, and then once Pooky-Jester died they largely avoided each other.

4.)

I think Holy is slightly more likely to be scum than mathcam, and Holy seems a likely BB! partner.

Question for mathcam

: If you are on-site before deadline, why do you think the Iammars wagon is 'convenient'? Do you think any of the players on it are scum? If so, which?

[petroleumjelly]

BB!, please link me to the last three games you have played as town where you were lynched. I will be skimming LO2 very quickly.

[petroleumjelly]

Blargh, LO2 is actually seems (on the surface) very similar to this game. Disinterested as vanilla,

a little

'over the top', but not as much as this game. I think I have like 7 minutes or something.

[petroleumjelly]

Can't isolate your posts in MTG that I can see. You were Mason in BoI? That makes things harder.

[petroleumjelly]

Thinking. God, I hate deadlines. Why did it have to be during finals weeks!?

[petroleumjelly]

Starting to wonder if I'm choosing between two townspeople at this point. I am also being influenced by the fact that if BB! is scum and I unvote her right now after I've been trying to get her lynched for days, I will kick myself for all eternity after this.

[petroleumjelly]

[Damn, I think 'deadline' has hit, but I will try to come to a decision before it hits 9:30 my time just in case].

[petroleumjelly]

Okay, vote staying. Would like final commentary from Beep! Beep!

[petroleumjelly]

*gnashes teeth* There needs to be a yelling emoticon here, or something. Deadline is indeed in about 11 minutes (I tried to give the impression deadline had hit to see if BB! would fess up to anything, of course she did no such thing).

Commentary from Holy if you're still bootin' around?

Right now I am thinking:

Town

hasdgfas
Mizzy
MGIA

On the Fence

Holy / mathcam
Iammars
BB!

[petroleumjelly]

Unvote, Vote: Iammars

. This may well rank up with my klebian vote in Space Monkeys, but time will tell. BB!, if you are scum, I hope you know what this is going to do to me once I find out.

[petroleumjelly]

Okay, just walked around the hall.

Quick explanation: basically, nobody looks like a partner for BB! right now. If the pairing is Holy+BB!, her last post did not really help her at all, and if that is the case the game will not be over anyways. I doubt BB! + matcham. I doubt BB! + MGIA [because of vote steal]. I doubt BB! + Mizzy, largely because I don't think Mizzy/Slay is scum to begin with. I can, on the other hand, see possibilities of scum-partners for Iammars.

[petroleumjelly]

1.)

I'm not too pleased with there being a Werewolf in the game, when the first posts go over in very explicit detail about the possible factions in the game -- which only include Mafia, Jester, and Town. There should be a tiny clause like "there may be other factions in the game" or "there might be other win conditions" if you are going to do something like this.

2.)

I definitely thought mathcam / hasdgfas played a superb game as mafia. I was

very

suspicious of hasdgfas very early, and he always niggled the back of my mind because his claim just never once sounded

right

to me. But credit is due where it is due, he managed to keep me off his back despite that.

Since people are doing it, I will note that after Iammars was lynched, I immediately proposed the following scum groups:

Mafia #1

• CKD
  
• MoS
  
• Beep! Beep! / Holy

Mafia #2 (Vengeful)

• Iammars
  
• mathcam
  
• hasdgfas

If I had survived the night after the Iammars-lynch, I would have been angling for lynching mathcam or hasdgfas [the only person who can really vouch for this is probably al_kohaulec: since hasdgfas died and came up scum that same night, I wanted mathcam and Holy to be lynched, in that order of preference].

So in that sense, I have to bow down to the wisdom of having me killed when you did; I was pretty distracted with BB! pretty much all game, it took a lot for me to want to lynch somebody besides her. *sigh*

I never really suspected mathcam enough to want to spend a day lynching him until after Iammars was lynched, and by then it was too little too late.

3.)

I do want to ask about the BB! lynch. Just the day before BB! [the presumed 'mafia without a vote'] I had basically given her a pardon from lynching by pushing on Iammars, and probably would not have wanted her lynched

at all

the next day: it is almost guaranteed that BB! would not have killed me that night. As such, I just plain don't understand why she was lynched.

I also never understood the idea that there were no mafia members left. I would have considered No-Lynching on the final day (although that apparently would not have worked this game).

4.)

I had figured that mith was probably a sole mason -- this was based on my having been in a game which Thesp modded where I was effectively a lone Mason (Sanity Mafia).

If anybody had claimed to be mith's Mason, I was going to check their posts for breadcrumbs, and if there were none, I very well might have counter-claimed. I practically

never

lie as town, but I was becoming increasingly positive throughout the game that mith, in fact, did not have a partner. I almost wish this situation had come up, just to see how that would have turned out.

5.)

Holy was a very effective SK -- never threatening enough during the day to seem like a good nightkill target (if I were mafia, that is), but never

quite

scummy enough for me to want to use a day to lynch her until very late game.

~~~~~

I will probably have more comments later.

[petroleumjelly]

I hope you didn't hate your role too much.

Pfft, no. You gave the role the wrong person (or just the right person, however you look at it). After having been the 'lone mason' in Sanity Mafia, and having what I think to be a good grasp of your modding policies, my general thoughts on my role were "I am just a vanilla townie, but I just

might

not be". The thing I hated most about my role was the possibility that I had to

claim

the role, because I knew it was going to sound a bit ridiculous.

[petroleumjelly]

Ah - fun night discussion. Though it seems as though you also occasionally talked during the day?

I am somewhat pleased that the mafia kept postulating me as being mith's Mason partner; after mith came up D2 as Mason I immediately thought about Sanity Mafia and tried to make it seem as though I could be his partner (I know I made several statements along the lines of "you will not be able to lynch me").

As pleasant as it is to be right about so much of Thesp's meta-policies, I am actually quite disappointed that I could not argue in such a manner that the town followed me about them. After the Farside22 lynch, I was floating in a sea of miserableness and self-pity. >< I was convinced the town was going to lose in a quite spectacular manner after that, and we probably would have done just that if not for the hasdgfas-CKD busing.

As a side-note (although I was probably the only person who caught it), I became very worried about the CotCR role because Thesp went from using "Official Vote Counts" to simply "Vote Counts". In Sanity Mafia, Thesp 'justified' a role which could not actually unvote by claiming he never said those vote counts were "Official". I was convinced that tyhess/MGIA had been stealing votes, and Thesp was justifying it by never saying the vote counts were official. I prodded Thesp about this, and eventually got him to pony up that the vote counts

were

official; if you look at his posts, you can see that he edited quite a few of the later ones all on the same day, in order to add the word "Official" to them.

I might find my "night-choice" PMs for Thesp now, only because sending them kind of amused me.

[petroleumjelly]

Wow – I had completely forgotten that on D1, I was actually considering claiming to be mafia in order to make myself look like the Jester. This was in the hopes that the

actual

mafia would know I was lying (and hence think I was the Jester), and the

real

Jester would know I could not be the Jester and would push on me like crazy. It seemed like a very unique way of getting both the scum-groups (I thought there could only be the two scum-groups almost all game) to react in such a way that they would leave themselves very open for getting lynched later.

Needless to say, I'm rather glad I never came through on that one. It probably would not have worked in practice (especially if the mafia did indeed have day-talking powers). Although I do think it could have possibly been

wildly

informative. *scratches chin*

~~~~~

Night-choices:

Howdy, Thesp!

Tonight I'd like to use the jelly-leg curse on alky.

PJ

Howdy, Thesp!

Thank goodness for a scum lynch. I needed that emotionally, even if the town is going to lose.

I choose to catch the snitch tonight.

>.>
<.<

PJ

Night action: Hide under the Invisibility Cloak. >.>

PJ

Okay, so they weren't as funny as I remembered them. Oh well. ><

Also, I probably asked Thesp about 25 questions about the game, and only got answers to about 2. >=[

[petroleumjelly]

Well, I didn't check to see if the dates matched up incorrectly, it just seemed like some of the nighttalk was responsive to what had just happened in the game. I was more asking a question than I was making a statement (habit from Mock Trial, probably).