Open 667: Day 3

[hapahauli]

Hello world. I'll need a night or two to catch up. I like to make sure that I've read everything through before I get involved.

[hapahauli]

Good fucking god there were two no lynches?

[hapahauli]

VOTE: Gamma

The inactivity and the no-lynches make it extremely difficult to develop truly solid reads. Based on what I've read though, I think Gamma's our best shot at mafia.

TheSoldier commented on Gamma's general passivity. That seems pretty accurate. He has over 50 posts, but has been very unmemorable and hasn't been pushing the game forward.

While Gamma can point to VL/A's and a "shit internet connection" as an excuse, I don't think that sufficiently explains his filter. There are a few things that stick out.
1) He had his vote on Vijarada literally all of Day 1, and I don't think he tries to lobby for his lynch or push him in any of his posts. That's pretty unnatural for town.
2) All while not pushing Vijarda, he's capable of throwing shade at other players. #118 (Indigo), 225 (Bork/Pep), 228 (Bork), 230 (Bork). By this reason, shouldn't he have his vote on Bork, rather than sticking with his super early-game vote on Vij?
3) He makes a scene of not cooperating with Vijarda's "pick two top scumreads and lets consolidate on a lynch" movement. Scum really like shitting on other people's ideas and providing nothing of their own. This is what Gamma basically does here.

He shit's on Vijarda's attempt to push the game forward, and does nothing of his own to do so.

4) All of Gamma's interactions with Vija after his early vote are wieeeeeerd. I'll quote all the posts so you guys get a feel for it:

Pepchoniga has by far the most.posts. His early game reads fame to me. More recently, he's been making a ridiculous amount of posts interacting with specific things, but he rarely gives an opinion or read. Plus in my gut his posts read so awkward.

But still guys, let's lynch indigo. She's scum! Probably with pep.

,':(

I thought town were supposed to lynch mafia members, not irritating kids.

mmm Looks genuine tho, like he looked at his post and thought "This justifies a vote".

I'm scumreading
Bork

does not compute

Not really tho
Scum can have genuine thoughts

Look this game is stagnated af. Everyone list their top two scumreads and we'll lynch the one most widely scumread, k? Mine are indigo and pepchoniga

I've legitimately used this as scum to steer lynches, in this setup.
Hell no.

That's all the posts that deal with Vij. Gamma reads Vij as mafia. How Gamma is treating Vij does not make very much sense from this perspective. There's no OMGUS after Vij calls him out. There's no calling Vij mafia after Vij proposes something that gamma CLEARLY thinks is mafia motivated. There's no emotion. Gamma is remarkably civil, and is treating Vij like any other guy rather than a guy who he has his vote on and seemingly reads as mafia.

[hapahauli]

As for SnarkySnowman, I would like to read some of her past games before making a decision on that slot. I think that slot looks almost as bad as gamma's. Snarky has the worst vote of Day 1 by far, voting Pep instead of helping town consolidate on a lynch. Snarky also had a pretty useless Day 1, including this gem of a post:

Vij and Bork both read town to me. I think keyen is an easy mislynch here, so I want to stray from that. I'd like to push Indigo but idk what the count is on him and I'm not up to hammering that yet.

Which is just a useless, god awful post that provides nothing to the town.

However, someone alluded to Snarky being a lurkerish and lynch-bait player earlier in the thread. I'd like to investigate that more before making a decision.

I'll update on Snarky tomorrow after going through some of that slot's past games.

[hapahauli]

I'll add two more things about Gamma.

Firstly, I very recently replaced late in a game where both my slot and Gamma's was town. I managed to read quite a bit of Gammas fliter in that game. He came across as very direct, aggressive, and uncompromising. His approach to reads felt a lot like "my way or the highway." I don't get any of that sense at all this game.

For example, consider this sequence of posts.

I thought town were supposed to lynch mafia members, not irritating kids.

mmm Looks genuine tho, like he looked at his post and thought "This justifies a vote".

I'm scumreading
Bork
Pep
and Vi rn

Almost back to back, Gamma calls Bork's post genuine, and them lists him as a scumread.

I thought town were supposed to lynch mafia members, not irritating kids.

mmm Looks genuine tho, like he looked at his post and thought "This justifies a vote".

I'm scumreading
Bork

does not compute

Not really tho
Scum can have genuine thoughts

When Vij's calls Gamma out on it, he has the above response.

But all of this really "does not compute" from a town perspective. What is the point of Gamma posting that he thought Bork's post was genuine? Why even bring that up if you think it's non alignment indicative? And almost all of Gamma's posting reads like this. He's posting for the sake of posting, rather than that he's trying to find mafia. And that's really unlike what I've seen from his town game.

[hapahauli]

The only other sufficiently strong read I'm willing to provide is on CloudKicker. Three reasons:
1) He's clearly pushing the game forward today.
2) His attitude towards the no-lynch yesterday was very townie.
3) Vijarada looked titled-as-fuck when he replaced out. That seems like a very townie response to having a sudden wagon on you form like that.

As for others... you all get an incomplete. I can't call anyone else town with conviction, and I've found that giving out too many town-reads makes me ignore players I should be looking at more critically.

For now, I'll focus on finding who I think is mafia.

[hapahauli]

That looks like L-1, but please

do not hammer

. I'm feeling more comfortable with Gamma-scum as I continue to read the game, but time is an asset for town.

We have 10 days. Let's use those days and get some more voices in the thread. If you're town, now is the time to prove it.

[hapahauli]

Bit of a noob question, but: Would it be advantageous for us to make a second L-1 wagon, or should I avoid that? I would be happy to vote for Snarky in order to even the wagons out, but maybe that would be a bad thing somehow. And understandably we're at a point in the game where scum would be more happy to quickhammer one of the wagons. Technically if today I brought Snarky to L-1 and then someone quickhammered, maybe that would be a good indicator of scum? I don't know. Probably overthinking this.

The most advantageous thing is for everyone to try and find mafia.

Two L-1's isn't good AFAIK. If there's a mafia member at L-1, it gives him/her an out to quickhammer the other wagon, rather than letting town win today.

I must say, I haven't really contemplated Gamma being scum up until now. I guess all the v/la stuff just made me put down his 'posting for the sake of posting' as trying to make up for the time that he missed. I need to consider scum!gamma as a possibility based on those posts.

This doesn't say anything. Clearly you've read my case. Do you agree with it?

[hapahauli]

Man. SnarkySnowman is some grade-A lynchbait. I skimmed through at least 10 of them, and all of them are super lurky regardless of alignment, with very short/content-less posts. Lynching Snarky for activity is a dice-roll with bad odds, unless people have other reasons to call him mafia.

[hapahauli]

Above should be "I skimmed through atleast 10 of Snarky's games (town and mafia)".

@ Creature

Wanting Gamma dead is great and all for my purposes (and ego), but doesn't tell me much about you. What are your thoughts on the game? Who is mafia, and who is town?

[hapahauli]

Who is Gamma's scum-buddy and why?

[hapahauli]

Well it doesn't need to be associative. But there are two mafia, and it is possible to suspect a 2nd person for independent reasons.

[hapahauli]

So Gamma wagon so far looks all town.

Why? Other than his post on Gamma, he hasn't done much else. Like if we are wrong on gamma, he doesn't look great.

[hapahauli]

Top lynches for me today would be Snarky or CK, though I can't see the latter happening.
Hapahauli is probably my top townread.

Scumreads. Cool. Progress I guess.

I think Snarky is lynchbait. He is a lurker regardless of alignment. Why is he mafia?

Also, what's scummy about CK? You've told me why his behavior is non alignment indicative, but no why he's suspicious.

[hapahauli]

I don't actually think cloud kicker is scum, I just hate the hammer on nl yesterday. Yes it was the right move logically BUT also we had SO MUCH TIME to figure things out and then nl.

Gamma wagon irks me a little but it could be scum, I want to think on it for a bit. I don't think the people on it are town but I could be wrong.

We're supposed to lynch mafia, not people who make "bad plays." Who is mafia?

[hapahauli]

I think Cloud is scum because his reasoning for why I'm scum was shitty and sounded fake. Why? Because it basically amounted to picking at wording and at the fact that I posted a post with additional info

right after

a previous one, even though that's basically my posting style. Scumreads picking exclusively at syntax or wording of a few posts are shit and should be ignored.

Alright, so you think he has a bad scumread on you. Townies are perfectly capable of making bad scumreads. What makes CK mafia? That his reasoning "sounds fake" to you isn't very convincing to the rest of us.

I think

Snarky's

gamma's

lack of posting is worse for a couple of reasons. For one, literally nobody gave a damn D1 and D2, and it's rather surprising that

nobody

noticed. I'd expect at least one person (other than me) to call it out. That slightly hints to me that perhaps his scumbuddy was trying to distract from it, because lurking is normally something noticeable. Secondly, he makes votes, which would give a lot of people the illusion that he's being active and voting, but at the same time he doesn't really push his votes, so he can't be scrutinised that much if whoever he's voting for flips town.

Why are they both worse than

Gamma

snarky?

? Firstly, I wouldn't say they're

a lot

worse than him, but I just don't think scum would be that obvious/nonchalant. Like, I just get the impression that he can't be bothered with the game and is half-assing his posts, which makes him kinda lynchbait. I just feel like scum would be making more of an effort to get things done in a setup such as this where being lynchbait as scum is especially bad.

The problem I have with your reads, is that your reasoning for reading Gamma and Snarky scum vs. lynchbait are completely interchangeable.

[hapahauli]

Why is hapahauli top town?

Whoops, missed this question. Honestly, he's just making more sense than most people in this game.

Also, this rationale doesn't make a lot of sense.
1) "Making more sense than most people" doesn't follow with "top town." You called me

top town

, not

townier than most others

.
2) How can i be making sense according to your viewpoint? I'm voting and pushing someone that is outside of your radar (gamma). Your top two scumreads are CK and Snarky, one of which I'm hard-defending, and another I'm very dismissive of as lynchbait.

If you believe your scumreads, how can I be making sense? I'm almost directly arguing against all of your reads

.

[hapahauli]

And CK is mafia because, as I previously stated, I don't care if my argument isn't convincing to you. I'm hoping it'll just convince enough people to lynch him so that we can actually win this game.

You should probably care, since your options for swinging a lynch are very limited. Let's assume that both you and I are town, and that CK is mafia. Then you'd have to convince all three other townies to vote your case, with no margin for error. That's pretty ambitious. That doesn't even take into account what happens if you're wrong about scum-reads.

And I don't think my reads on Gamma and Snarky are interchangeable. Snarky is trying to give the illusion of effort hidden behind minimal posting. Gamma seems to post more but half-ass the content openly. I don't know how much clearer I can make it.

Yes you keep saying that, by why the distinction? Why is it that you think Snarky's posting is giving the "illusion of effort", whereas Gamma's is genuine? I cannot argue or corroborate with your feelings. Only facts suffice.

I just spent most of the last page arguing why I think the opposite is true. Gamma looks a lot like he's posting for the sake of posting. He's in the thread, has scum-reads, but doesn't push them (and instead pushes other players, like you). He complains about other players methods to push the game forward, and does nothing himself. All this points to Gamma giving the "illusion of effort", while being unhelpful to town.

Snarky is a lurker. How is that illusory? He's not really hiding his lurkiness or prod-dodging. I'm not reading him as town, but knowing his lurker playstyle, I don't have convincing reasons to read him as mafia.

Your opinions are the opposite of mine for reasons you are unable or unwilling to tell me. "Feelings" ain't enough for town to burn a lynch that could potentially win the game right here on the spot.

[hapahauli]

Then respond to this:

You had your vote on Vij all of day 1.
You have zero posts that push Vij all of day one.
You have several posts that push others on day 1.

How does that make sense for town-Gamma?

[hapahauli]

I'm loosely familiar with it. I replaced into Mini Normal 1854, which I guess you wouldn't have known, since you were basically afk for the last cycle. I read several of your games after replacing in an effort to figure out your alignment.

If you want to dismiss things that make you look bad "as the past", then let's talk about the future. Who gets lynched today, and why?

[hapahauli]

Reasons?

[hapahauli]

just wait
you can vote with me if you like

You have this nasty habit of disappearing for days at a time, so I'd prefer not to wait here.

[hapahauli]

Creature, if he's gone for too long and discussion slows down, just hammer him.

[hapahauli]

Bingo. Soldier gets it.

Bork's reads are remarkably convenient, and make perfect sense from a mafia perspective. There's also a lot of independent evidence to suggest that she's mafia. Her sudden disappearance at the end of Day 1, contributing to the no lynch. Her early Day 3, where she spends more time being upset with her scumreads rather than calling them mafia. And now her odd sort-of-defense of Gamma.

I think it's best to get this day over with. If someone could kindly pull the trigger. Bork could do so as well, but I doubt that is going to happen.

[hapahauli]

...
Her early Day 3, where she spends more time being upset with her scumreads rather than calling them mafia.
...

I didn't explain this very well, so I'll elaborate quickly.

#629 really shouldnt have existed, this is really a scumtell

Let me try and use your logic on you so you can see for yourself how bad your case is.

This guy used 'really' twice. This is scummy, as it suggests that he is desperate for town to believe him. Additionally, it is scummy because it shows that he needs to try and convince himself of his argument, because he knows he's bullshitting. He felt the need to add that second 'really' just to make sure that everyone saw his case as legit.

VOTE: CK omg I'm scumreading you exclusively off one post, but I am obviously right because my ego is too inflated to hear other people's logic.

UNVOTE:

I'll reserve my vote for now, but I hope this proves something.

This post is from the beginning of this cycle, where Bork Bork is railing against CK because she thinks CK is "dumb/retarded/thick/whatever."

This post is damning for two reasons.
1) Someone who you think is mafia isn't being dumb or retarded. They are pushing a mafia agenda. The implication of calling someone dumb or retarded is that you think they're stupid and town. You can see her referencing CK's "inflated ego" as rationale for CK being stubborn. But that implies that CK is town, NOT mafia.
2) To believe that Bork is town, you have to accept that she's willing to unvote one of her strongest scumreads because she wants to "reserve her vote." This makes so little sense from a town perspective. Why would you unvote someone you want to kill? What is the point of reserving your vote?

[hapahauli]

[hapahauli]

There we go. Good luck on the flipside 'gents.

[hapahauli]

Good game gents.

Was really impressed by your play TheSoldier. Your post on Gamma was what really made me look back at the game and build a case on him. On my first read-through, I basically forgot he was in the game (which is reason enough to think that he's mafia).

Two active replacements for two town-lurker slots was pretty brutal for mafia. I felt as if mafia were coasting a bit in the last half of the game, and that passivity really doomed the team as activity kicked up in the thread. Townies were beginning to pick up on the mafia team (CK on Bork, Soldier on Gamma) before I replaced in, and I was glad to be able to give town an extra kick in the right direction.

I feel pretty bad for Bork Bork being put in an awkward Day 3 situation. This setup seems pretty brutal for mafia, having to hard-defend your partner on Day 3. In my game notes, I had Bork as a town-lean based on her very aggressive/active Day 1 play. The activity drop off, combined with the forced Gamma defense was unfortunate.

[hapahauli]

It's hard to give advice, just because you were put in an extraordinarily shit situation. The main suggestion that I have is to do something aggressive. Either actively try to discredit me, actively try to push another lynch candidate, or HARD defend Gamma. At that point in the game, I have thread control and am pushing the thread in my direction. You need to do something... anything to disrupt that. Passivity only let's the situation continue on as it is.

It doesn't have a high chance of working, but I think the chances are higher than your passive sort-of-defense of Gamma.