OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)

[Regfan]

K I don't see you Dave can't be scum?

Dunnstral pushing him seems like WIFOM. Dave never voted Dunnstral either.

Yeah it had nothing to do with their vote history, I don't necessarily believe that the only way you can have interaction analysis is via votes. It had to do with direct interactions between the two pointing against being partners, if I still have the same belief about it when I finish rereading I'll quote to you what I'm referring to.

[Regfan]

The below will involve a mixture of my read on the player and my thoughts on partner analysis. I'll update as I go through. I'll get to interactions on Dunnstrals end at the very end but will attempt to remove and rule out pairs in the process. If people need me to elaborate more on a read I've gone over just ask.

Remaning worlds;

1. Superhans-Dunnstral

2. Desperado(MariaR)-Dunnstral
3. Davesaz-Dunnstral
4. ThingBig-Dunnstral
5. Nydus (Alisea/SAJ)-Dunnstral

Still liked SH's Post 44 directed at Gamma and his questioning towards Maria in Post 124 & Post 129, also still find Post 286 less likely to be asked by scum, particularly scum with Dunnstral as a partner; this is actually a reasonably strong point now. I liked the avenue SH focused on Dunn with in Post 316 but it's weakened by the lack of follow through on the read. Interaction quoted and involved in Post 1018 points against him being scum with Dunn. I think him quoting Dunnstrals prior game inside Post 1024 and asking how his play has changed in Post 1025 as well as the interaction that follows hard points against them being a scum team; scum don't bring up a partners prior scum game to "Fuck with them and attempt to get them angry" inside the thread in the manner that SH did there at all, Post 1154 strengthens this as does Post 1163. Admittedly him wanting a lynch between TB/Desperado in Post 1835 doesn't look great but I liked his interactions between Desperado/Dunnstral & Dave throughout D3. I think he's far less likely to want to buss or vote Dunnstral as scum like he did inside Post 2353 and the follow up vote in Post 2370 and Post 2442, think him buying the reasoning of Desperado can only be scum if Dunnstral is scum and him scum reading Desperado means him changing his vote to Dunnstral does make sense as town.

All up I think there's more than enough reasons here to entirely rule out SuperHans being scum here.

[Regfan]

Skipped Desperado, don't think I'm in the right head space to go through him as objectively as I'd like, I'll get back to him.

Remaining worlds;

1. Superhans-Dunnstral

2. Desperado(MariaR)-Dunnstral

3. Davesaz-Dunnstral

4. ThingBig-Dunnstral
5. Nydus (Alisea/SAJ)-Dunnstral

I liked Dave calling out Dunnstral in Post 139 and find the interaction between Dave and Dunn between Post 308, Post 309 & Post 312 to point more
towards Dave being town and liked Daves response towards Dunn in Post 315. I disliked his late vote on TB inside Post 861 and think it has lots of scum motivation towards it and dislike his fairly unexplained town read on Dunnstral in Post 1061. I find posts like his directed to Desperado inside Post 942 to be much more likely to come from town and still find his reaction towards my replace in to be fit his town attitude inside Post 1125 and Post 1136. I still like most of his reasoning behind his Kop vote in Post 1270 but admit the vote on review does make sense coming from scum. I find his attitude directed towards Dunn in regards to reading Daves motives in Post 1853 as highly unlikely to be a scum/scum interaction; the progression of the conversation in Post 1885 and especially Post 1889 is pretty much never happening between partners. I again find his attitude in Post 2253 to be very unlikely to come from scum.

So yeah, gone through Dave again and still very much comfortable ruling him out of being mafia, very much doubt some of the interactions between them are S/S.

[Regfan]

For those that prefer reading quotes rather than links I've spoiled two of the major interactions between Dun/Dave that make me think it's not S/S.

Spoiler: Interaction #1

^Ah i messed up, Dunnstral doesn't vote Dave, but calls him scummy with no explanation,
Change question to:
@Dunnstral why did you scum read Dave?

Because he made a scummy post.

Which post and why do you think it's scummy?

It's about intent. Get off of me. I'm not getting lynched. Vote Gamma.

Next thing you know I'll be l-5 followed by l-4

I find these two posts to be an over reaction and I'm not liking post 103.

To play devil's advocate for myself, not sure why I'd make such a big deal of it as scum

In order to wifom once people call you on it.

@Dunnstral,
Why are you voting Gamma?
Would you want to convince other players to do the same?

He's not engaging in anything while being here, very odd for him.


MARIA is also trying to be as scummy as possible it would seem

I can get behind a pressure wagon.
VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Pressure is more useful if the target doesn't know you're voting merely for pressure.
Also note to myself to see if the quoted post becomes relevant later.

These ones. I thought they were scummy at the time. I didin't vote you and you can stop acting like you didn't do anything

These ones. I thought they were scummy at the time. I didin't vote you and you can stop acting like you didn't do anything

I'm not sure what you mean by "acting like I didn't do anything". Am I trying to disclaim posts or something?

The question is why you thought they were scummy. Do you not want to answer that question?

They're scummy because I felt like they were. If I wanted to make a case it wouldn't be off of those two posts.

They're scummy because I felt like they were. If I wanted to make a case it wouldn't be off of those two posts.

That's not going to help sort your motive, but whatever you like...

Spoiler: Interaction #2

I also don't see what you guys are seeing about dave

I'd be a lot more comfortable reading you if I could be confident you understand the concept of honest posting and could recognize it when you see it.

I also don't see what you guys are seeing about dave

I'd be a lot more comfortable reading you if I could be confident you understand the concept of honest posting and could recognize it when you see it.

huh?

I also don't see what you guys are seeing about dave

I'd be a lot more comfortable reading you if I could be confident you understand the concept of honest posting and could recognize it when you see it.

huh?

What do you actually think about me, and why?

I think you're mafia. Posts like this:

VT/

Dunn might be scum who realized I've got his partner dead in my sights.

While talking about kop when it didn't make sense (and we know he was town now)

along with the defensiveness that followed that

Do I need to go over your iso for you to understand why you're scummy?

Despite my otherwise head on playstyle, I do occasionally make tongue in cheek comments and employ sarcasm.

I fail to understand why people scumread it. My town play is so obvious it borders on being illegal.
All you have to do is accept that (aside from rare jokes and the occasional reaction test) I honestly believe everything I type.
I'm never afraid to be wrong, I'm never afraid to not know the right answer (more often, not have an answer at all).

You (and that's personally you) lose games (specifically ones where you scumread me) because you expect people to act evasively so much that you can't recognize when they are not being evasive.
There is no conceivable scum motivation in anything I've posted this game. Of course not given I'm town, but any attempt to force read this as scummy has to come from either stupidity or scumminess.
I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt instead of power lynching you. I suggest you use that opportunity to up your game.

[Regfan]

Probably calling it a night soon, happy to leave it as scum between those 3 names for the time being; I'll pick back up from where I left off tomorrow after work.

May check this once more before drifting off though so if anyone has any quick questions I'm happy to answer them.

[Regfan]

It's not a case of "bussing or not", it's a case of they're interacting with each other in a way that comes very much across as them not actually being aligned together. I don't think Dave as scum ever does the level of emotional manipulation that the following post would require to a scum partner;

You (and that's personally you) lose games (specifically ones where you scumread me) because you expect people to act evasively so much that you can't recognize when they are not being evasive.
There is no conceivable scum motivation in anything I've posted this game. Of course not given I'm town, but any attempt to force read this as scummy has to come from either stupidity or scumminess.
I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt instead of power lynching you. I suggest you use that opportunity to up your game.

[Regfan]

Cheers for the votals, I'm personally not a huge fan of VCA (I think there's better scumhunting tools, shrug) but know that certain other players are and do appreciate the effort in compiling them. Don't actually get much from D1/D2 other than we now know the remaining scum member ended D1 voting AH for a fact.

Do you have any reads or analysis from them?

[Regfan]

Heading to bed now but I'll look at what Dunns vote on Alisea (Nydus) means tomorrow after work, from memory he never strongly pushed it nor was he on the slot for long though (Again will check)? And he most certainly never pushed Desperado based on crumbing reasoning, only people that did that were Alisea & Dave.

[Regfan]

I mean odds are it's probably just ThingBig here and that's probably the avenue we'll go since there's a lot (Especially the timing of his selfvote yesterday) that points to that but I do want to finalise this reread so I probably won't vote for ~48 hours. If I can rule out one of Nydus/Desperado confidently then the game becomes a win via process of elimination in that there's two suspects and two lynches; I'd just need to make sure everyone understands that and agrees.

#IwillrememberyouRealeo

[Regfan]

Oh before I pop off TB if you're town you can a) Explain the case you had between Dunn-Desperado that you were going to elaborate on yesterday but never did, b) Your reasoning behind the timing of your selfvote after asking Nydus not to selfvote yourself and the lynch looking like moving to Dunnstral rather than yourself and c) Whatever questions of SH's that you've been avoiding answering. If you're town now is the time to make it up and actually start playing properly.

But you do remind me, I want to have a look at AH again before voting too. Now really bed.

[Regfan]

.......you claimed by before.
All your reports now, go.

[Regfan]

I also don't believe you selfvote as town without claiming.

[Regfan]

VOTE: ThinkBig

I'm ready to move on. Tomorrow is MyLo.

I apologize for my inactivity. I have a lot to catch up on. Since I'm at L-1, I will claim:

Vanilla Town.

Why would you selfvote as a tracker without claiming and lie down to a lynch without revealing your results beforehand? This is play I don't buy coming from town.
You also claimed VT when put at L-1 and asked to claim, you're experienced enough to know that lying about your role there is nonsensical.

Do you have any crumbs? Any indications of your reports touching the thread? Anything to make this claim more believable? And you realise we lynched Kop solely because you didn't claim, had you done so none of you would have died that and day and this game would have been autowin if you're town. This is just so dumb.

[Regfan]

Why did you track SuperHans last night when Desperado was your scum read? Why did you track Alisea N1 when they were your strongest town read at the time? (You didn't start scum reading them till D2) Like this claim has so many flaws it's not funny.

[Regfan]

D1 read, N1 action:

Alisae - By far my biggest town read. He shows genuine interest in the game and shows genuine scum hunting.

Night 1 I tracked Alisae - Nowhete

D3 read, N3 action:

I can definitely see a Desperado/Dunnestral team. I will elaborate this more when I get to my laptop. There are a few posts that feels like he is outright trying to buddy me. He says he has a town read on me, but can never actually explain

why

he town reads me.

I'll be happy lynching either desperado or dunnestral today.

Last night I tracked Hans. Also nowhere.

These don't match.

[Regfan]

Here are the things I don't buy TB:

1) That you kept your VT claim during our mass-claim and never chimed up when we were lynching Kop based on us having 3 claims total.
2) That Realeo was considered as clear via the report when from your position you'd have known the report was meaningless.
3) That you'd selfvote and ask the day to end in your own lynch as a tracker without having claimed beforehand.
4) That you'd track your strongest town read in the game N1.
5) That you'd not track your strongest scum read in the game N3.

[Regfan]

Vote: thingbig

[Regfan]

Yeah you were never winning from this position, especially after that atrocious fake claim haha.

[Regfan]

I killed realeo last night because he was hard tunneling on me this entire game.

Yeah figured that was the case.

#IwillrememberyouRealeo

[Regfan]

Yeah Realeo had a real-o-good game. We clashed at times but I found him enjoyable to play with and liked that he kept an open mind. Most of the playerlist this game had a few things right at some point so it was an all around decent performance, AH getting lynched D1 certainly didn't help the scum team.

I'm probably not the best person to give scum advice (My scum game is a bit poor) but I'll do a quick skim tomorrow and give you some little tips. I'm mostly better as a town player though, this game marks 15 town wins in a row (I haven't lost as town since 2013!).

[Regfan]

Thanks for the game grapes, found it a pretty enjoyable experience and certainly found the setup intriguing. As scum I probably take 0 powers unless I have an active partner in which case I just take daytalk.

Realeo fist bump! Working together was nice.

Scum team amusingly had a higher chance of winning via shooting myself or Realeo N2 over Gamma (Especially since he didn't submit a night action albeit they couldn't have known that) as it leaves Gamma as an unclear and removes an active player. The way that D3 played out locked this as a town win.

Nydus, damn I just realised that me getting a win also means you get off 0 wins, totally not worth it; should have just troll lynched you, so many regrets.

Desperado, do apologise for the 'stupid' comment, probably was slightly too far. I was just frustrated as I went into D4 fairly certain it was TB and you flipping your read on him for the reasoning you did was just grating for me. That said a win is a win is a win. Happy to see you're still around here and funny that this was both of our first game back from a break.

@SuperFunHan

1) I normally don't intend for my big analysis posts to be 'quickly read' (I only make a few big posts like that per day phase) but didn't even consider what it'd be like reading them on a phone so absolutely will try to break them down into separate lines next time; thanks for informing me of that.

2) Main advice I can give you is that I think at times you can be a little too easily swayed/erratic with your opinion; having an open mind and considering multiple worlds is a good thing but you need to explain your changes in a little more detail otherwise people may scum read you for them. I really liked your activity and questioning of people but think you could focus slightly more on stating your town reads and explaining them.

@ThinkBig

1) I very much understand and acknowledge that keeping up the motivation to post as scum can be hard but you really have to force yourself to, if you don't you'll almost always be lynched or in the lynch pool; try and get out the gates in a comfortable position and don't get so flustered when pressured, will mean you're feeling better about the posts you make yourself.

2) You need to keep track of you reads and read changes and be able to explain them when pressured over them; inability to answer that is a generally always a solid scum tell and you had a few reads here where I think you just changed for no reason/a reason you'd forgotten.

3) Wouldn't recommend ever doing the self vote gambit that you tried here, people can see right through them most of the time and fake claims similarly need to be planned out much more.

[Regfan]

I was following this. it is nice to see that the charm I placed on Regfan a while back had such a huge effect in this game!

It was seriously magic, this is the longest I've lived in a game as town in quite some time and allowed me to actually have enough content and info to solve it. Now you just have to find out a way to get me to experience a lylo as town, know this isn't an easy request to grant.