OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #2300 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:57 pm

Post by Superhans »

Also fuck off with the whole 'top town read', I said that I just wanted town reads which he absolutely did not give me.
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Post Post #2301 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:59 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 2283, Regfan wrote:
In post 2277, Desperado wrote:Reg, you're fucking it up again. Dunnstral is town.
Pretty damn confident he's not; I'll elaborate into this when I get home tonight (Heading out in ~20 minutes) but there's been several things from him today (And tbh throughout the game) that points pretty heavily towards him being mafia, one of the larger ones being his read on TB. I can understand his initial town read and defence on TB given I was along the same thought process but the fact that his read on TB never progressed throughout the game is a big red flag. He's effectively ruled him out
entirely
ignored new evidence and information that points towards TB potentially being scum and flat out not commented on him, to do that while also barely defending TB when there's a wagon forming on him today makes no sense as town.

I don't think you're looking at me fairly here: I'm not "barely defending tb" and I don't know why my read should have changed when the driving force behind it has stayed constant all game (AH stuff)

So I don't know what to say, but it's not me, but I'm also not too worried about being lynched anymore since I think I know what's going on now

Looking at this:
In post 2268, ThinkBig wrote:VOTE: Dunnestral

I know I've been putting this game off and I do apologize. I've been extremely busy and notice that my activity in games seems to go down when I'm widely scum read/close to being lynched. It is something I need to work on.

I can definitely see a Desperado/Dunnestral team. I will elaborate this more when I get to my laptop. There are a few posts that feels like he is outright trying to buddy me. He says he has a town read on me, but can never actually explain
why
he town reads me.

I'll be happy lynching either desperado or dunnestral today.
In post 2275, ThinkBig wrote:Not once has Dunnestral given reads or explained why he reads people as town or scum.
In post 2278, ThinkBig wrote:Why is dunnestral town?
What happened to you townreading me TB? How did you go from that to voting me after the IC did
In post 1663, ThinkBig wrote:Here is where I am at right now:

Town: {Real, nydush}
Lean town: {Dunnestral}
Null: {Dave}
Scum: {Desperado, Superhans}

I am confident that there is a scum between desperado and Hans and would preferably like to lynch one of those today.
In post 1621, ThinkBig wrote:Final reads for the day

Town (S->W)
: Realeo, Nydus, (gap) Dunnstrsal, Dave
Null
: Gamma, Dave
Null scum
: Kop
Scum (S->W)
: Desperado, Superhans

Gamma will get resolved tonight. If Gamma is actually the goon cop, then Gamma will be dead tonight. I am confident there is scum inside Superhans/Desperado with Superhans slightly more likely to be scum than Desperado.

I'm fine with ending the day phase. It has been almost 3 days and Kop still hasn't came back and answered our questions and responded to our arguments.
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Post Post #2302 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:01 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 2285, Regfan wrote:TB's activity elsewhere in comparison to here etc.
Don't think I've ever used activity in other games to change my read on someone in a game I'm in, even games where I'm with the same player in both games
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Post Post #2303 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:04 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 2287, Regfan wrote:He constantly states he has ThingBig as town and that he doesn't want to lynch him, then look at the reasoning that's attached to it; it's solely and 100% based around AH's push on TB and then stating "Scum are pushing TB", none of it at all has anything to do with TB's play.
My read doesn't come from his play. It comes from the dead traitor. This is true, but you seem to think I have to be looking at thinkbig's play (he hasn't done anything of note, but lurking out definitely doesn't always mean scum)

I'm reconsidering that read now though, after seeing him hop on to me. I'm probably ok with lynching TB...?
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Post Post #2304 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:35 pm

Post by Realeo »

In post 2300, Superhans wrote:Also fuck off with the whole 'top town read', I said that I just wanted town reads which he absolutely did not give me.
He did?
Dave is town for the same reason Alisae is.Nydus is Alisae and I am the originator of "Alisae wouldn't call me out and push me as traitor as scum."
Realeo has been town the entire game. I haven't wavered on this.
Dunn has been town the entire game. I haven't wavered on this.
Dave is town for the same reason Alisae is.
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Post Post #2305 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:37 pm

Post by Realeo »

He even explained why he townread Dunn in great detail, which you respond by saying "I agree to some point"
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Post Post #2306 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:56 pm

Post by Superhans »

his town explanation of dunsntral was a result of Regfan, not me.
He completley disregarded me.
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Post Post #2307 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:24 pm

Post by Realeo »

Because you are his scum, right?

Why would I, Desperado, needs to defend myself against scum? What I should have been doing is defending against town.

I disagree with Desperado attitude, but found that relatively normal.
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Post Post #2308 (ISO) » Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:28 pm

Post by Realeo »

Which is why I found TB ignoring not normal. I am his strong townread, why are you not defending against your strong town read?
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Post Post #2309 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:20 am

Post by Regfan »

@Realeo - I don't agree with your SH hesitation in and think it's your fever talking. I do agree with TB ignoring the questions and just throwing a vote down in being a concern though. I really think Dunnstral is the correct lynch here and given todays my last day would appreciate you either voting with me or discussing this read with me in some more detail, happy to wait until you're better though (Get well soon!).

I thought about this more while I was out but lynching Dunnstral almost tells us Desperados alignment as well regardless of flip nearly.

Follow along;

Realeo is just always town here, this is a read that'll never change; (Cop report, his play etc.)
Alisea was Nyduss predecessor and she was the person that pushed (Quite strongly) on Desperado D1 in a way that scum wouldn't to a partner. Nydus-Desp = No.
Dave also pushed on Desperado D1 and there were some interactions between the two of them that point towards not being partners. Dave-Desp = No.
SuperHans & Desperado are just very very clearly non-aligned, everyone has also stated and agreed with this already pretty much. SH-Desp = No.
ThingBig has been pushed on throughout D1/D2/D3 by Desp in a way that scum can't afford to do so. TB-Desp = No.

That means the only scenario that Desperado can ever be scum in is with Dunnstral. Lynching Dunnstral either leads to a scum flip (Which I'm expecting and we'd want) or leads towards Desperado becoming as near as cleared as well upon a town flip in the worst case scenario.
In post 2295, Realeo wrote:Why are you scumreading Dunn and hard townreading nydus...when they are townreading ThinkBig...for the same reason?
Lots of different reasons? I don't consider their play all that similar at all & Nydus isn't entirely ruling out TB to the degree that Dunn is.

@Dunnstral RE; I think I am being very fair with the analysis; the reasoning behind TB being scum has changed throughout the game, sure others may have maintained the point about AH leading TB to be scum but they
did
provide other reasons which you never considered or addressed, that's where my issue with your read on him stems from. I don't buy the "I don't use activity is an indicator" in at all.
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Post Post #2310 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:23 am

Post by Regfan »

My work resumes tomorrow so my activity will somewhat drop off (Will only be able to get to this game between 6-11PM AEST) but really can't stress enough how I think lynching Dunnstral is the right play here. He's my strongest scum read by a long margin, he fits in two worlds I consider very realistic and also provides a lot of information in the worst case scenario of a town flip which I really don't see happening with lynching him anyway.

I'd bet quite a lot on Dunnstral being scum here. Like would eat a hat on video if wrong. Would really appreciate people moving to him here.
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Post Post #2311 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:41 am

Post by Realeo »

Where is your explanation of your Dunn vote? To a certain degree, I'm starting to see your scumread at Dunn is a semantic argument.
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Post Post #2312 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:42 am

Post by Superhans »

okay i have had up until now a fairly strong town read on Dunnstral. I've been aware that you've been making an extended argument on Dunnstral but haven't actually had a chance to properly evaluate what your claims are or whether they are valid. I will do so now, (maybe it'll take a little while though cos I may need to ISO you and also ISO Dunnstral), but I'll let you know what I think about it by tonight or by tomorrow night at the latest.
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Post Post #2313 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:43 am

Post by Superhans »

I know that I have a town read on Dunnstral (subject to change if I find Regfan's argument compelling) and I know that Desperado also has a town read on Dunnstral.

I don't know about D3 content, but from how Dunnstral played D1, D2, I don't see it being particularly scum.
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Post Post #2314 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:44 am

Post by Realeo »

In post 2309, Regfan wrote:Lots of different reasons? I don't consider their play all that similar at all & Nydus isn't entirely ruling out TB to the degree that Dunn is.
We must be seeing two different thing.

"Nydus isn't entirely ruling out TB"?

Really?

Even Dunn is start second guessing TB now. I don't see Nydus second guess TB at any point. The only potentially negative thing that TB said is "TB activity at other game is
interesting
" Interesting? That's the only bad thing you can say to TB?
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Post Post #2315 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:46 am

Post by Realeo »

In post 2313, Superhans wrote:I know that I have a town read on Dunnstral (subject to change if I find Regfan's argument compelling) and I know that Desperado also has a town read on Dunnstral.

I don't know about D3 content, but from how Dunnstral played D1, D2, I don't see it being particularly scum.
I see Dunn as a potential town voicing concern.
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Post Post #2316 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:47 am

Post by Superhans »

In post 2315, Realeo wrote:
In post 2313, Superhans wrote:I know that I have a town read on Dunnstral (subject to change if I find Regfan's argument compelling) and I know that Desperado also has a town read on Dunnstral.

I don't know about D3 content, but from how Dunnstral played D1, D2, I don't see it being particularly scum.
I see Dunn as a potential town voicing concern.
about what?
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Post Post #2317 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:48 am

Post by Regfan »

@Realeo - I've elaborated on most of it earlier, I'll quote the relevant parts;

1. His read on TB doesn't make sense coming from town;
In post 2283, Regfan wrote:I can understand his initial town read and defence on TB given I was along the same thought process but the fact that his read on TB never progressed throughout the game is a big red flag. He's effectively ruled him out entirely ignored new evidence and information that points towards TB potentially being scum and flat out not commented on him, to do that while also barely defending TB when there's a wagon forming on him today makes no sense as town.
In post 2285, Regfan wrote:Very untrue. Go back and take a look at his reasoning behind town reading TB, his reasoning is entirely based around AH's interactions and nothing to do with TB's play at all. It's fine to be of the belief that AHs play makes TB more likely to be town (I thought the same thing) but to use that as a basis to town read him alone and ignore TB's actual play does not make sense. The fact he's maintained this very stance on TB today while ignoring logic that has nothing to do with AH pointing towards TB being mafia (TB's way of dealing with SH, TB's activity elsewhere in comparison to here etc.) does not have a town thought process behind it.
In post 2287, Regfan wrote:I mean do me one favour; open up Dunstrals ISO and do two searches; "ThingBig" and "TB" and look at the progression throughout the game. He constantly states he has ThingBig as town and that he doesn't want to lynch him, then look at the reasoning that's attached to it; it's solely and 100% based around AH's push on TB and then stating "Scum are pushing TB", none of it at all has anything to do with TB's play. Him maintaining that read with information that doesn't relate to AH makes no sense, none. He doesn't comment on the other reasoning, he doesn't state other reasons he town reads TB, there's nothing.
2. His Dave read and the way he's handled today doesn't make sense coming from town, it's not a thought process or progression into the day that makes sense as town, it does make a lot and I mean a lot of sense as mafia on the other hand;
In post 2231, Regfan wrote:Your scum read on Dave isn't even anywhere as elaborated as you think it may be inside the thread, there's a few votes on him for a few comments but nothing to portray the confidence you're trying to claim you have for it.
In post 2231, Regfan wrote:The way you're treating SuperHans/Desperado here is exactly what I'm talking about finding scummy, the "I don't need to figure them out right now" is a load of bollocks, if you acknowledge that the votes likely won't be going onto Dave today you absolutely do have to sort them out, heck you even have to sort them out if the votes do go to Dave. The whole bolded section from you comes very very much across as mafia.
In post 2219, Regfan wrote:Similarly your stance on Desperado is ????? in that you have somewhat of a scum read on him but don't have him in your actual scum team guesses at the moment nor do you look like you're trying to work out his alignment. Your read on SuperHans is even more of a ???? in that you agree with my point that him not knowing Gamma was dead points towards him being town (Which is a fairly strong argument tbqh) yet when you disagreed with my partner analysis he was the first person you pointed to.
In post 2214, Regfan wrote:I think in particular your stance on SuperHans, ThingBig and Desperado are all very problematic and not well thought out or at least put forward into the thread. I think you agreeing that SuperHans action from earlier makes a lot of sense as town but still maintaining him in your scum pool now has a lot of motivation to do as mafia. I think there's been minimal effort in regards to you solving Deperados alignment especially since he's not in any of your actual scum team guesses but you don't have a town read on him. I liked your town read and defence of ThinkBig earlier in the game but the read and reasoning has remaining fairly static as the games progressed.
Effectively what he's done today is not scumhunting, it's not trying to solve the game, it's very obvious scum play. His reaction towards my partner analysis for instance where he "disagreed" with it since it makes TB scum to him if he agrees with the reads without stating what he disagreed with until I pushed him and his reaction being to throw SuperHans under the buss despite agreeing with the town tell from him is not town play.
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Post Post #2318 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:49 am

Post by Realeo »

@Regfan
: Try to do Votting Pattern Analysis at ThinkBig starting from D2. Take note of each ThinkBig's vote and observe what happens
before
ThinkBig's vote.
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Post Post #2319 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:52 am

Post by Regfan »

Oh Realeo, don't get me wrong. I see and agree with most of your points on TB, I think the lack of content from him throughout the game and the fact he pops in to throw a vote down on major wagons that aren't himself is a big scum tell, I think Dunn+TB is a very realistic world, I merely have a stronger scum read on Dunnstral than ThingBig at the moment and think that Dunnstral can also fit with Desperado here whereas ThingBig cannot.

I've done you the service of stepping back and reassessing ThingBig throughout this day phase, he went from one of the top town reads to someone that's in the top three re; my scum pool. I'd really appreciate you do the same service back and take a look at the points against Dunnstral because they're
really
strong.
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Post Post #2320 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:54 am

Post by Realeo »

1. Which is exactly my concern with nydus

2. I thought you are better than that.=/ Instead of accusing information, you collect them.

@Dunnstal: Can we have your case at Daveaz as scum?
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Post Post #2321 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:55 am

Post by Superhans »

In post 2268, ThinkBig wrote:VOTE: Dunnestral

I know I've been putting this game off and I do apologize. I've been extremely busy and notice that my activity in games seems to go down when I'm widely scum read/close to being lynched. It is something I need to work on.

I can definitely see a Desperado/Dunnestral team. I will elaborate this more when I get to my laptop. There are a few posts that feels like he is outright trying to buddy me. He says he has a town read on me, but can never actually explain
why
he town reads me.

I'll be happy lynching either desperado or dunnestral today.
hmm if Dunnstral
is
scum, what does this make TB? Town? Or is this post not genuine? Because honestly if TB is scum, why would he want to push his partner?

THINKBIG IF YOU ARE OUT THERE

Image

Now is the time to input on your Dunnstral case. You often make a vote put don't follow through with more reasoning, (e.g your vote on me) and it comes across as if you're letting yourself float and be carried by the current.

Now is the time to elaborate.
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Post Post #2322 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:59 am

Post by Regfan »

Realeo, re; 1 - I think Nydus is still very fresh to the game (In that he replaced in not that long ago), most of his reads and thoughts still haven't been presented. I have stated that I want more activity from him and won't leave behind a legacy clearance on him until I actually get that from him -- so no I'm not letting Nydus's lack of activity go unnoticed. I do want his thoughts and have asked for them, that said I don't find the same scum motivation in his posts re; TB as I do from Dunn. Re; 2 - Dunn stated he'd get around to the Dave scum read explanation, it didn't happen and no it's not a case of "Asking and waiting" for everything, if he really believed Dave was as scum as he made him out to be inside his posts we'd be able to see exactly where he's getting the read from, we can't. His read shown inside the thread from all of Dave/SuperHans/ThingBig/Desperado (Which is majority of the damn playerlist) are huge concerns. =
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Post Post #2323 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:01 am

Post by Regfan »

I think TB's post and vote on Dunnstral there means very little re; the possibility of them being partners or not. I can see a world where TB!Scum votes Dunn!Town as a mslynch to save himself, I can see a world where Town!TB votes Town/Scum!Dunn due to thinking he's being buddied by scum and wanting to vote a counterwagon to himself and I can see a world where Scum!TB votes Scum!Dunnstral to distance with each other since there's no longer any PR's to catch bussing from hereon out.
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Post Post #2324 (ISO) » Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:04 am

Post by Regfan »

Realeo, you agree with me that Dunn/Desp is a very legitimate possibility. I also assume you agree that Dunn-TB is a possible world. I've also noticed from some of your posts that you don't particularly have a strong (or any) town read on Dunnstral. Level with me here and read the posts I've made about Dunnstral, then go through his ISO and either throw down a vote on him or tell me why you think he's town here.
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