OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)

[Regfan]

Hey everyone! Been a little while seen I've actually played a game here. I'll be catching up with the thread in the next few hours. If there's a particular section you want me to focus on more let me know as soon as possible.

Will say I found the "Inactive Child" section on this very page quite amusing.

[Regfan]

I'll let you know what I think about TB when I'm through the thread, the crickets about to finish so I'll be able to actually start it very soon. If there's any other role claims (Other than it being revealed I'm an IC) that I should know about let me know. Oh and I saw you mentioned that you've played this setup as scum before, you got a link to the game thread / your mafia QT there?

You had pretty good dead thread analysis in the dance game

Thanks I guess? I didn't start following the game until around the time of Pies suicide though and at that point it was fairly apparent you were scum already, I didn't have the Scout/SAD pair correct, knew there was scum in there but thought it was probably Scout over SAD until the last few days of the game where it became obvious you and SAD were setting up for the win and that you had it fairly secured. You both played a fairly impressive game.

[Regfan]

Lol are people seriously voting ThinkBig, the fuck is going on.

[Regfan]

I'm only at page 14 and only read Antihumans first replace in post (Post 329) but that post alone means that ThinkBig is probably town given the fact that Antihuman flipped traitor; for ThinkBig to be mafia you'd have to believe that Anti's first move when replaing in was hard bussing a a partner as a traitor, it's far more likely he tries to push a mslynch there. My mind could change given there's still ~30 more pages to read but there better be a really strong case on ThinkBig being mafia to disregard that post.

[Regfan]

Almost fully up to date, currently at page 32. Would be very amusing if the scum team was Kop/SuperHands given Post 388.

Will have my thoughts on all players up in the thread in the next two hours. Would be nice if someone could be online around then to bounce some thoughts with.

[Regfan]

Realeos early town read on TB in Post 65 as well as the elaborated reasoning in Post 70, Post 72 and Post 78 comes across as very genuine, I disagree with the logic behind it but I think he believes what he's saying and I like that he nullifies his read upon finding out it's something that TB has done before in Post 121. I find his paranoia / pocketing conversation with Dunn in the early game much more likely to come from a town mindset around ~Post 93. I also find his stance on AH in Post 361 to lack scum motivation; scum would be considering AH as a regular townie at the time and thus considering him and Hans as potential mslynch bait, to rule that out by calling the concerns playstyle "awkward" related limits scum. I think his discussion about his excel sheet and his read on Kop in Post 504 and Post 551 come across as town and think the quick unvote in Post 553 fits a town mentality of being unsure of themselves rather than scum being waffly, also think the activity around the deadline in Post 557 - Post 561 lacks scum motivation, he'd given himself an out to lurk for a bit as scum but the want to instantly jump back in this has a gamesolving attitude behind it. I think his tin foil theory behind his town read on Desperado & Alisae in Post 1041 is one that comes from town far more than scum and the massive amounts of detail in hunting via AH's ISO is a fairly big town tell here. Gammas "Not Goon" result on him also increases the odds of him being town from that alone. All up though I'm pretty confident to bet the game on Releao being town regardless of Gammas legitimacy or however many number of power roles we have in this game. So yeah, Reaelo is always town here.

Will probably out my reads on everyone in sections, normally I make a fancy coloured wall but I'm feeling slightly lazy and rather get these individual reads into the thread asap.

[Regfan]

@Gamma

- I would appreciate you unvoting in that case, especially given I just replaced in a few hours ago. Plus we're not lynching TB today, I'll go into that later though.

I think Han's question about Gammas scum meta in Post 44 shows a town thought process behind it, I also like his posts directed to MariaR in the early game. I think SH's question in Post 286 is more likely to come from town albeit this is a weak point. I don't necessarily agree with SH's logic in Post 549 but I can follow the thought process behind it. I think SH's attitude around deadline D1 in ~Post 660 comes across as town. The progression behind SHs Post 806 an Post 812 is very questionable especially considering his prior stance on the night kills being WIFOM. I like his analysis of Dave in Post 970 but dislike the TB vote inside Post 989. I think him bringing up Dunns prior scum game inside this setup in Post 1024 and asking him to explain how he thinks his play has changed in Post 1025 is a decent town tell but his follow up of "Just fucking with you" is underwhelming. I have a weak town read on him all up but would like to actually see some more content from him today.

@SH - Can you run me through a few things please; 1) What specifically what made you change your stance on AH/TB "Never being scum together" to currently having TB as your current strongest scum read. Please don't refer to Desperados case when answering this, I want your exact thought process because Post 1056 has some real questionable logic involved in it. 2) Can you explain the change from you stating that Ssbms death was WIFOM inside Post 767 to proceeding to vote Gamma for Ssbm inside Post 812 since that's a fairly weird flip to make. Would also love any other reads you have at the moment with some reasoning attached.

[Regfan]

If Gamma doesn't come back to unvote can someone else do so, I feel rather uneasy with someone being within hammer range while I'm still in the process of getting my reads down.

I'm not going to waste a lot of time going through Gammas ISO because if he's legitimate he likely dies in the night the majority of the time. I also did like his reaction towards Aliseas vote in Post 718 as a breadcrumb for a Not-Goon result on Realeo. I think the manner he claimed in Post 889 makes a lot more sense coming from town trying to push the game forward in the right direction, while he had votes on him there wasn't a serious threat of a lynch at that point however the game was stagnating. Him claiming there as mafia risks him being CC'ed there while putting him in a position where it's hard to explain not ding as scum. He's probably just town and dying, if he's still alive two days from now you can give some serious thought to him being fake but between now and then there shouldn't be anyone wanting to contemplate lynching him.

On the role front if we have a vig they need to shoot once to take us away from evens to odds.

[Regfan]

Can you at least unvote ThingBig for now. If you disagree with my analysis for him not being the lynch / someone else being a better lynch you can converse with me over it later and revote if you want but for now unvote so I can get my reads down safely.

[Regfan]

@Realo (And also others that are attributing lack of content & prod-doding as a scum tell for TB

) Thanks. ThinkBig replaced into Newbie 1758 (He stole the slot from me! as town (I suggest you read his ISO, it's short) and got lynched the day before lylo, inside the game he had a lot of similarities as what he's portrayed here, huge lack of content, lots of unfulfilled promises to catch up later, I've seen a few other games of his too I think where he's done a similar thing as town. I think he's just a newer/weaker player.

I find Daves analysis of the wagons in Post 300 a whole lot of nothing, the conclusions from it are minimal and while he admits that in Post 303 I think it's the type of scumhunting that's easy to do as mafia. I did like his timestamp analysis of of AH in Post 374 despite disagreeing with his conclusion. I really dislike the "Maria crumbed traitor" push in Post 540 and find it a very lazy push especially given there's no specifics to this given whatsoever. The vote on TB D2 in Post 861 is similarly very lazy and his mention that he thought AH's case on TB was pretty good was never mentioned D1, this is a fairly large point not to mention D1 if he's town. His scum read on Desperado inside Post 1061 and his explanation that it's attributed solely to MariaRs play rather than Desperados (Who has been in the game considerably longer and provided much more content) in Post 1065 makes little sense. His comment inside his TB read looks like him setting up an excuse post-flip with the "Could be AH misdriection". I think there's a very realistic chance that Daves scum here, his reads particularly his one on MariaR/Desperado re; Traitor yesterday and scum today feel fake and his TB vote is very opportunistic.

[Regfan]

So yeah, currently I'm pretty positive Releao is town, think there's a very decent chance that Gamma and Hans are town too and think Daves probably mafia here.

Going to take a short break and get to the rest of the players.

PEdit: The link I gave you shows that he's a weaker player in general, it's not implausible for weak players to put forward weak logic and cases (And I haven't even agreed that his necessarily is yet, he actually had a multitude of very good points on AH being scum). I'll get around to going though his specific posts and analysing them like I did yours shortly, patience.

[Regfan]

Can we discard this argument? Remember AH is traitor, so TB won't know if AH is also scum-sided.

The fact that AH is traitor and not mafia does change things to some degree but it's not something you entirely rule out. It's not a case of "X pushed on mafia therefore X is clear", it's a case of his argument for AH being scum had a lot of solid and logical points that suggests genuine scumhunting moreso than scum trying to push a mslynch. I'll comment on the rest of TB's posts including his read walls in ~30 minutes, going through his ISO now.

[Regfan]

I didn't mind TB's vote on Maria in Post 151 given his explanation in Post 198 that the purpose was to get content from her. I actually liked his vote on Gamma in Post 267 since I similarly didn't like the manner Gamma voted Desperado. His response towards AH's case in Post 339 was actually rather good especially the point about the IoA attack being able to be attributed to another player as well and his point about AH focusing solely on him and not commenting on anything else that transpired was a good point. I dislike and disagree with a lot of the reasoning behind some of his reads inside Post 502 but don't necessarily think the reads posts is scum-motivated or a scum-tell, just bad play. The inclusion of Desperado in Post 503 is lazy and does need to be explained in more detail though, the reposted reads list in Post 570 is lazy perhaps but it's not exactly identical, there is some notable changes inside that it does show at least a small solving attempt, notably Hans moves from null to his strongest town read nearly, his Ssbm and Dave reads change from green to black and his reasoning for Releo and AH are updated, given that there's only ~70 posts between his two reads posts I think this is a fairly natural amount of read changes to have in that time, people pushing that being a scum tell are being fairly unreasonable and not looking at how it transpired rather than just the posts. I think his D2 play has been poor in terms of activity but already gone into how that's not a scum indicator when it comes to TB. His vote on Alisea in Post 999 isn't bad and his reaction towards the threat of hammer inside Post 1071 and Post 1074 actually come across as town. I very much think the way that AH entered the game was trying to push a weak mslynch to the forefront which I think TB classifies as. The traitor themselves have very little to gain from actually getting their partners lynched and while he changed his mind late into D1 re; "I wasn't actually trying to get him lynched" that's not how his play came across and that felt more like him trying to get TB mslynched in the following day. Really there's a lot that points towards TB being town here, he's even a stronger town read than what I have on Hans at the moment.

[Regfan]

So, now that I've gone through TB tell me which arguments you think still stand making TB mafia.

The point about his reads is fairly bogus, his reads list progression inside his two reads lists was significantly better than what most people are painting it to be and ignoring the context of the read changes.

The point about AH's push on him making him more likely to be mafia is actually false, it's not impossible for traitors to do that but it happens significantly less likely then them just pushing mslynches; they hurt the scum team if they actually get a killing mafia lynched early on, especially when the mafia partner might actually have a role and his "I wasn't actually trying to get you lynched" comment was almost a week after he started it and he never unvoted ThingBig when stating that. That's him trying to paint ThingBig as mafia knowing there's a good chance that AH might get lynched himself. Also the suggestion that he was "signalling to TB" is a serious joke, that's not how it's done.

The point about his play throughout the last week being him "Openly wolfing" and that his prod-dodging is a scum-tell is confirmed not to be a scum tell for him, if you've looked he's been mslynched in just about half of his town games for people attempting to push that reasoning upon him, if anything he does it less inside his two scum games.

The point about ThingBigs arguments not being good or town motivated is something I strongly disagree with, I've liked his more than several other players.

So yeah, take it from me, ThingBig is town and absolutely not the person we should be lynching today.

[Regfan]

This is where I'm currently at;

Town (S->W):

Realeo, ThingBig (Gap), Hans, Gamma

Scum (S->W)

: Dave

It's now 3am, going to go to bed and I'l get to the rest of the players in the morning.

[Regfan]

I don't consider his reads that awkward, I think him believing that there's some buddying going on between scum mates isn't an unreasonable stance to take. His read and reasoning on AH D1 was particularly good and his reassessment of Hans to move him from null->town was certainly good. I think people are blowing his reads list here way out of proportion and ignoring the fact the traitor flip means we absolutely should not be lynching TB today.

I've seen him be mslynched like this far too many times and the reasoning behind it here is particularly weak, like really really weak.

[Regfan]

You know what
I think I said something along the lines of Kop/SH scumteam at one point

It would be a very amusing team given that AH may have actually called out to them halfway through Post 388 but it's a very tin-foil type theory and wouldn't lynch anyone based on it, if one of them flip scum at any point in the game the other deserves a little more focus though. And yeah, I noticed the two posts you quoted above and am waiting for explanation from SH regarding his change of stance re; the NK's since it doesn't mesh.

Anyway actually going to sleep now.

[Regfan]

Reg, are you suuuuuuuure that AH wasn't attempting to push another traitor? I don't remember TB having any attention on him at that point.

I can guarantee you he wasn't trying to push another traitor. I think it's very unlikely he was trying to push another mafia partner, the only way that traitor can die inside this setup is via lynch effectively given their BP vest and the lack of doctor meaning that mafia are never going to night kill them. The only way that AH makes that play is if he is confident that TB won't get lynched on the back of it and if he thinks he himself will get lynched before TB to make TB look good. I don't think he'd be replacing into the game and instantly planning what would be optimal in his own demise and deciding to take the risk having a potentially rolled killing mafia die just to have that occur. If you notice even after the point where he stated "I wasn't trying to get you lynched" (Which was a week after trying to get him lynched) he continued voting and trying to lynch TB constantly decrediting all of TBs reads and play. It's much more likely here that TB is just town.

[Regfan]

@SH, I had a few questions I wanted you to get to.

For the record, I'm not even trying hard yet. But I do believe everything I've posted.
If you scumread me for that you're an idiot. That might be a scumtell for other people but not for me.

Scum read on you has nothing to do with activity. If you're town run through the following things for me;

1) What specifically about MariaRs play yesterday made you confident she was a traitor? (I was post llinks/quotes) And what about her play makes you think she was just mafia now that the traitor has flipped? This is something you've never mentioned and is a fairly glaring omission.
2) If you thought AH's case on TB was good yesterday how come you never mentioned it then or mentioned that you had a scum read on him then? That read not existing yesterday having supposedly existed is something hard to fathom.
3) What's your read on Desperado excluding the MariaR posts?

[Regfan]

Huh, I'm not quite sure I follow that Dave, her #155 was a sarcastic remark to TB's vote on her in #151. And uh, traitors don't crumb the role traitor. That's never a thing lol, they might signal to their partners occasionally but they don't do it in terms of a scum claim, that was a relatively clear joke on MariaR's behalf. Can you explain the lack of mention of your TB scum read D1 / agreement with the case on him then.

[Regfan]

Eh, I could maybe buy Dave believing that the combination of the three posts makes her traitor and think him wanting to lynch her in that case makes sense as town. I don't understand the carry on to thinking she's just mafia for them after the traitor has flipped; there's no way that scum crumb the role scum (it's even less logical then traitor crumbing traitor) so explanation for that + the rest would be nice.

I strongly disagree Alisea, that'd require a lot of weird considerations to make from him upon just replacing into a game. I think replacing in as a traitor you're more likely to try and get a few mslynches pushed through before trying to make your partners look good, settling for a D1 lynch (Which you're suggesting he was intentionally doing) seems rather unlikely especially when it's at the risk of losing your partner D1. The longer you stay on him the worse I feel about you ftr.

Anyway back in 10 hours.

[Regfan]

I disagree with almost all of Daves Post 1136 but find it somewhat genuine.

@SuperHans RE; Post 1138

, I think Desperado has been more forthcoming with his reads and thoughts than other players in the room, I think he'd do that regardless of his alignment given he's a decent player. I'll let you know what I think of his alignment shortly but no, I don't find the case or argument that he's proposed TB to be scum even remotely convincing, it's built on very flawed and shaky logic and I think the amount of traction it has got is rather appalling. I think the fact that you were willing to vote Gamma "for SSBM" but not other players he thought was mafia suspect. If you genuinely believe that AH was pushing TB "Very hard" you shouldn't be voting TB here, that's a huge indicator that TB is town; as to why TB backed off if he didn't fully, he wanted to get a read on Dunn first -- he maintained his scum read on AH throughout the entire game and was willing to move back to him. If you're suggesting that you think TB realised that AH was the traitor you have to be kidding, pushing someone isn't an indicator of that whatsoever and TB doesn't come across as the type of player that would find a small soft directed at him, really suggesting that is stretching so far it becomes unbelievable.

I'll get around to you Desperado but while I think it's plausible that some other players might be misreading the TB situation here the longer you keep your vote on TB the more kittens die if you're town.

Kops Post 1147 is really bad, like really really bad and Dunn points out why in Post 1148.

Firstly I'd like to thank you for the amount of good analysis you're making on ThinkBig, however, I would disagree that ThinkBig made good reasoning D1. He created the AH wagon, then jumped ship to attack Dunnstral and refused to say that he still supported the AH wagon. How would you explain this behaviour? I would ideally want TB to answer these questions but he has been to busy to do so (although he has had time to whip together some basic readlists which is kinda annoying).

Lets put it this way, I'm confirmed town to you, I'm also significantly more experienced; when I tell you that I'd have been hard pushing AH based on his case against TB you should know that I'm telling the truth. When doing so I would have used lots of similar reasoning that TB used -- AH's intro post showed far too much focus on a singular player and the rest of his reads were very throwaway. What he used to attack TB on could have been attributed to several other players so it was a case of him molding an ISO to make a push rather than getting a scum read from an ISO, there was nothing even remotely genuine about it; TB identified most of this, him moving to Dunn at the early part of D1 isn't unreasonable given he wanted to get reads elsewhere as well and pressure Dunn in the process and he never refused to state he supported the AH wagon, he made it very clear he thought AH was scum.

[Regfan]

@SH - I've commented on multiple sections of Desperados case earlier, I'll get to the whole thing in ~30 minutes.

Traitors signal to their partners much less frequently than people expect, most of the time they just push the scum agenda like a normal scum player without any sort of "hinting", TB's flip here tells us a big fat nothing other than TB is town; it doesn't increase or decrease the likelihood of anyone else being town or scum based on AH's alignment, attempting to create a linkage between those two is nonsensical and really poor town play.

[Regfan]

Nope. Not how the role works, mafia don't necessarily need to know who the traitor is to play the game and the traitor already know who the mafia is, the traitor only needs to make sure their play isn't universally town read to the point where they become a night kill target (And the inclusion of a BP vest here means that's even less of an issue here), traitors literally just push the normal scum agenda and consider themselves more expendable if a counter claim or fake claim situation becomes available. This entire push that a traitor is more likely to replace into a game and hard push a partner in an attempt to get

themselves

lynched D1 to make their partner look better is a real stretch and would be very suboptimal traitor play. Traitors (Especially in this setup) have little gain from bussing in that manner, their partner might be a PR that they gave town an extra PR to get, intentionally trying to get them suspected and lynched doesn't make much sense.

[Regfan]

This games getting frustrating in that there's clearly only two scum left inside the game but there's like 5 people presenting really shotty logic that makes very little sense and it's not even impossible that they're all town.

Anyway back to reading peoples ISOs.

[Regfan]

I don't feel like they were trying to get them suspected or lynched at all at the time actually.
Look at AH's case on TB.

His vote never left ThingBig after it being placed in his first post in the game in Post 329, inside that post he presents a huge 'case' on TB being mafia and makes sure to divert a lot of attention from Gamma (Who is probably town) to TB, he continues making a case on TB inside Post 537 and again in Post 574. He spent the entire day focusing on and wanting TB lynched -- this is objectively true given that his vote never moved and his next scum read inside the game was you who he only had scum because he scum read TB. The manner he handled the TB situation put the both of them in the spotlight throughout the entire day phase at a time when neither were largely suspected and this was something he intentionally designed. So you're stating that him replaces in as traitor and wants Traitor v Mafia counerwagons D1 is more likely than Traitor v Town is very illogical. Like it feels like I'm talking to someone that doesn't understand the game of mafia.

[Regfan]

He's an alt, can't mention more in that regard due to sitewide reasons but can tell you 100% he's an alt.

[Regfan]

So your hyphothesis is that AntiHuman changes from town wagon to another town.

What is the scum motive. He can just sheep the Gamma wagon, ye?

Him jumping on Gamma would have been a huge scum-tell, him attempting to create Town v Town counterwagons (Gamma v ThingBig) on the other hand has a lot of scum motivation. It's also not impossible that he was trying to pull a wagon of his partner and that Gamma was mafia but that's not a world that I think should be considered too heavily today given I liked Gammas soft & claim and mafia have to deal with him soon if he's legitimate.

[Regfan]

@Realo - There is no notice that you "must disagree with the crowd" however replacing in and having your focus and action being throwing a 6th? vote on someone is something that's often read as sheepish & scummy and the lack of original thought often comes from mafia there particularly given the case on Gamma wasn't a strong one. He has less motivation to want to do that regardless of Gammas alignment there as it instantly makes him look bad.

@Dunn - See, that's the way traitors play the majority of the time, this entire tin-foil world suggestion that the traitor was hard pushing a partner and the partner realised it was the traitor pushing them is insane.

@Alisea - You're not making any sense anymore, remember what Accountant was pushing Nydus for in Newbie 1764? What you're pushing here is even more illogical than that and needs to stop. The suggestion that AH intentionally made a bad case with the intention of getting himself lynched upon replacing into a game is illogical, attempting to state that his play was bad so that the illogical play becomes logical is just silly and makes me want to bring out the PL.

[Regfan]

LOL! Scum will use whatever tactics they can use to perseve as townie and attempt to get mislynches, will they not?

But this is

not

what you're suggesting is happening. You're suggesting that scum used a tactic not to have people perceive them as townie but rather as scum on D1 and they weren't going for a mslynch, they were going to ensure that the lynch was between two mafia members D1 (Traitor and goon). This thought process makes no sense. If you continue to push this I'm not going to bother reading your ISO and will just vote you.

[Regfan]

Actually going to go through ISO's now but I'm almost down to just policy lynch the fuck out of Alisea here, the suggestion that we should be solving this purely from AH's ISO is by far one of the stupidest things I've heard, the traitor (especially given how short his time in the game was) isn't going to solve the game for us, as Dunn mentioned and I'll attest to the traitor generally doesn't signal to their partners. This game is solved by reading living players posts and analyising those for the most part, about the only confident thing I can glean from AH's ISO is that TB is town, not scum. And trying to solve something based on X flipping town is not pre-flip associations, it only is if you're asking the question if X is flipping scum.

[Regfan]

I didn't like the interaction with SH's from MariaR's point of view in Post 122 and disliked her posts around Post 155 but liked her pop in read on SAJ in Post 243 given I liked a post of SAJs at a similar time. I liked Desperados replace in reads in Post 275 particularly the SH one and liked his vote to AH in Post 351 and his reasoning in Post 369. I liked his prodding of people with legitimate of questions around deadline time in Post 514 but it's not something he can't fake as scum. I think Desperados AH-TB consideration pre-traitor flip in Post 614 is reasonable at the time but think him maintaining that world post-traitor flip in Post 776 is less so, the only point inside there I'd agree with is the lack of push on Desperado from TB but that's fairly weak alone given he already had two scum reads at the time so it's not impossible he wanted to focus on them ahead of Desperado, particularly since the traitor isn't the highest priority. I disliked his "Scum framing Kop" suggestion in Post 783, I personally (And know that the majority of the site does too) shoot people that suspect me as scum knowing that town don't put enough weight behind the dead players reads, it's much more preferable than having them alive pushing you. I think his Gamma-AH-TB world in Post 815 is very tin-foil and makes a minimum amount of sense. I liked his town read on Realo inside Post 826. I think the suggestion that AH was begging TH to "let it go" in 'Post 859 is absurd and think the suggestion that TB is the type of player to notice softs from a traitor to be very outlandish, I read the last comment inside the post to make more sense as AH trying to get TB in the lynch pool. I liked Desperados stance on Gammas claim in Post 900. So I'm not particularly confident to make a call on Desperado either way right now, I really liked his D1 play for the most part but his D2 push on ThingBig is something that I think has scum motivation behind it, need to try and work out if he drove himself into a tunnel-mindset there as town or trying to push a mslynch as scum.

[Regfan]

Town read on Hans has weakened in the last few pages, think the reasoning he's trying to use to maintain his TB scum read has a lot of scum motivation behind it and didn't like that his angle with Dunn and the meta was trying to get Dunn "angry", I fail to see a town thought process behind that which lets him get a better alignment indicative read on Dunn. It's not implausible that it's just his inexperience showing but it's certainly somewhat concerning.

My scum read on Dave has weakened somewhat given that a quick meta search has him getting more frustrated and throwing around insults predominantly as town than scum, that said I no longer find his analysis on why MariaR was a traitor read to him to be a town-tell given that it was mentioned by Alisaea earlier in the game making it possible he was just tagging along with that as scum.

Will go through Alisea, Kop & Dunns ISOs shortly.

Town (S->W):

Realeo, ThingBig (Gap), Gamma, Hans

Null:

Desperado

Scum (S->W):

Dave

[Regfan]

@ Reg: I think it was the former and I think Hans has been snowing me all day

Can you run me through your vote placement on Kop over Hans in that case? I mean I certainly don't mind it, I just want to hear your thought process behind it since it's not walked through inside your ISO. Also did you ever take a quick look at TB's meta (If so before or after I replaced in)? Would also like your read on Dunn & Alisea so we can discuss the similarities/differences between our reads there when I'm done reading them.

[Regfan]

I don't like Kops reasoning for suspecting Ssbm inside Post 212 and find his vote on Gamma inside Post 281 scum motivated and dislike how quickly he drops his SH suspicion from earlier. I liked most of Kops analysis of AHs case on TB inside Post 379 but the lack of conclusion or read actually drawn from it is really concerning. His stance on "I don't do scum reads early game, just want information" inside Post 638 is something I'll need to verify with his meta because otherwise this looks like creating an excuse to not scumhunt or look at other avenues. I found the Gamma vote inside Post 765 as a fairly reasonable one given AH's actions D1. The decrease in activity and lack of reaction towards his scum read (Gammas) claim is a fairly big scum tell as is his pop in agreement on TB being mafia inside Post 1147, Dunn and myself went into it earlier but he's effectively scum reading TB for reading AH as a traitor and backing off and that's not a reasonable thought process based on what's been offered, it looks more a case of setting up an opportunity to move his vote from Gamma to ThinkBig. I'll need to take a quick look at his meta but think there's a very decent chance that he's mafia here and think the Ssbm kill makes slightly more sense with Kop being mafia.

[Regfan]

@Desperado - I obviously agree with your Kop scum read and vote but can you explain why

you

think Kops more likely mafia than anyone else at the moment, your prior post sort of lacks that. Outside of Dave having thought you're the traitor what's your read on him? And can you run me through an overall idea of where you're at with SH at the moment since you seem to have him in a funny position.

@Regfan: SuperHans do seems opportunistic at Gamma wagon? You want to play more attention at that.

I'll be taking a look at SH's progression behind his read on Gamma/AH/TB again once I've finished catching up on everyone. There's elements of his play that come across as town but Desperados not wrong in that SH's play today also makes sense as scum that's buddying up to his TB case, the fact that he's constantly referring to Desperados reasoning behind thinking TB is mafia than his own is indeed a problem.

[Regfan]

Went over Kops ISO again and there's still not much inside it that reads as town and genuine scumhunting, I find there's a severe lack of stances taken from him throughout the game; there's nearly no town reads mentioned from him and his scum reads on Gamma & more recently TB both come across as opportunistic. I dislike the manner he dropped his SH scum read and never went back to it. Yeah I'm willing to throw down a vote here for now;

Vote: Kop

@Desperado - I'm just trying to work out why you selected Kop over

everyone

else, is it a case of everyone else leaning somewhat town or is it a case of finding certain aspects of Kops play to make more sense as mafia? I recognise that you've been playing most of this day phase with the impression that it's a world where ThinkgBig is mafia and like that you acknowledge there isn't a chance I'm letting him get lynched while alive but I don't think just putting SH entirely to the side is the best way to handle that given not much will change in the gamestate any time soon. I'd also like you to analyse TB yourself and state a read on him with the information I've provided (Not necessarily just meta wise) rather than just deciding he's not the avenue for today.

[Regfan]

I found SAJs interaction with Kop around ~Post 232 and Post 236 to come across as slightly townie. I like Aliseas vote on AH and scum read on the MariaR section of Desperados posting in Post 448. I like Alisea being the first person to explicity come out calling and pushing MariaR as a traitor in Post 474 and Post 487 to make more sense as tin-foil town, if scum believed it they probably don't draw attention to it and push it. Find her attitude around Post 690 and Post 693 to make more sense from town around deadline than scum and the start of her push on TB in Post 781 does fit as tin-foil town but sadly does ignore how things played out; AH's comment about not actually intending to push TB was just a a statement made a week after starting it while maintaining his vote on TB, it's him attempting to keep TB in the pool post flip. I think the reaction test re; the "Hammer" by Hans from ~Post 991 to Post 997 is bad play but don't find it to be a scum tell at all. Still irritated reading Aliseas interactions with me around ~Post 1134 onwards, the inability to grasp the situation logically and the sheer amount of stretching used to maintain the scum read on TB in posts like Post 1192 does make some sense as scum but also by town that's being really stubborn and not reassessing based on new information. All up I'm leaning towards that slot being town for a few reasons and am hoping whoever replaces in can really help solidify that read.

[Regfan]

I only have Dunn to read through and then I'm up to date. I'm currently at a situation where I feel pretty good about Realeo, Alisea and ThingBig being town and to a slightly less extent Gamma (He gets resolved in the night anyway). I still lean SH on the townier side but he's certainly not a town read I'd take to the bank or anything of the sort and would like to see some more original content from him today that doesn't involve ThingBig. There's enough inside Desperados play that I'm not particularly interested in lynching him today and have him fairly null but if anyone has a strong scum read on him I'm willing to hear a case on him. I'm leaning towards wanting to lynch Kop over Dave, with Dave while I dislike a few of his stances and find scum motivation behind his voting record his reaction to my suspicion is making me second guess the read whereas with Kop there's nothing inside his ISO that I'm finding as him genuinely scumhunting or trying to game solve, there's analysis but no conclusions drawn from them in several instances.

@Desperado -

Dunn touched on it himself but what I was trying to get at from you was realisation that your clearance or removal from the vote pool today on Dave makes little sense. He never actually

pushed

you in regards to the traitor claim like Alisea did and almost everything he brought up in regards to it was a copy of what Alisea had said but signicantly later. The extent of his actions was a vote in Post 540 and a comment in Post 645 which isn't implausible for scum to do at all, I can see and agree to a degree that what Alisea did may come across as town to you but can't see that from Dave and think you attempting to link them under the same umbrella there is short-sighted.

[Regfan]

Ali, Dave, and AH all pushed me openly as traitor. A wagon never materialized. Why?
^This is another big reason I think ThinkBig is scum. Ali was his biggest townread for the entirety of D1 but he literally never even mentions me w/r/t being a traitor.
Why do you suppose that is?

A wagon likely never materialized because the push on you was based on reasoning that resembles what I take out every Monday night and was never going to be logic that a lynch would actually go through based on. You attempting to suggest that ThinkBig not voting you based on that over his actual scum-reads that were based on stronger reasoning makes him more likely mafia is a joke dude, an absolute joke. Consider it this way; what's stronger reasoning? 1) That AH's push on TB was him construing every single action in a negative sense ignoring the context of them or the fact that other players had dome the same action and pushing this with a level of confidence that makes little sense as town, 2) That TB had read Dunns play in regards to AH to make sense as partners and disliked the buddying/defence that he read between them or 3) That MariaR's post looked a bit like a traitor soft. The answer is 1) and 2) are much more reasonable votes then 3) and he never really even believed given his only mention in regards to it is one line inside Post 570. You're attributing something to TB here that never really was there or makes any sense and I need to try and evaluate if you're got to this wrong direction as town or mafia, you elaborating on thought processes in detail will considerably help me with that if you're town.

[Regfan]

I find that hard to believe Kop given you've played this exact setup before and made the following comment in this post:

But scum don't know who the traitor is though? There is the chance that they could end up night killing him, which is a risk because it doesn't help them that way though.

I know I was a mafia traitor on another site, but ended up getting night killed by my own team mates day one, they didn't know I was the traitor.

[Regfan]

Also given this post of your in this very thread earlier this game;

I don't want to lynch Realeo

I want to lynch realeo. He's used doctor and cop emojis already, I think he's trying to setup fakeclaim crumbs and needs rope

also if maf didn't recruit the traitor he could be making obvious PR crumbs to try to get his team to shoot him and recruit him if he's the traitor

These are baseless accusations. They hold no truth or any argument that can hold any water, using them emojis doesn't exactly have a warrant to lynch him, based on that.

As for your second point, that's wrong. If I'm recalling correctly, if they shoot the traitor, he dies. I once had the traitor role and mafia shot me, and I died. I didn't join them.

[Regfan]

Yes but your line inside Post 212 is responding directly to Ssbm talking about traitor crumbing to the scum team to get the scum team to work out who the traitor is, there's over 100 posts inside this game where people discuss the possibility of the traitor trying to signal the mafia team, how is it possible to read through this thread properly and never once realise that mafia didn't know traitor? That would mean you've read this thread without actually reading peoples posts (For instance Aliseas push on MariaR crumbing traitor, Desperados case that he thinks the "excuses" section was a crumbing occurring. Like I'm trying to work out how this could be a genuine belief you had rather than you attempting to force a dumbtell to be town read.

[Regfan]

Yes but in the game you linked traitor knew mafia and mafia didn't know traitor, that's generally the norm for the role which was also the case last time you played this setup. I find it really hard to believe that anyone that read this thread would think that mafia could know the traitor given lots of cases and arguments are based entirely around AH's partners not knowing him and him trying to signal them. Like when you read posts like Alisea stating that she thought MariaR was crumbing traitor or read posts like Dave suggesting that Desperados predecessor had claimed traitor or read posts with people tying TB & AH together stating that they think AH was signalling TB through the push what were you thinking?

Like there's nothing I can find based on your history with traitors, your history with this setup or your prior posts in this thread that make your stance on you thinking mafia knowing traitor makes any sense to me.

[Regfan]

@Kop - RE: Post 1262 I'm not asking if you were looking for traitor crumbs yourself. I'm asking how you didnt notice that majority of peoples conversations were about people looking for them. When reading the thread you didn't think this was weird given your stance on mafia knowing them at the time? Like given your last few posts either you''re town that genuinely didn't know how the mafia team worked or you're scum that's trying to throw out a dumb tell to get town read and excuse your TB scum read post. Explain how the first of the two scenarios is the one that's the case here and that I should be unvoting you and looking elsewhere.

OK so you've got traitorAH, townAlisae, scumDave, and Dunn all either voting me/pushing me as traitor. Why doesn't that wagon gain more traction again?

Because it's based on really bad reasoning that others didn't buy? Because a few of the scum team were already voting you? Could be several things. I don't get where you're going with this.

I just don't understand why Dave scum would push and vote me as the traitor, or how a wagon didn't form on me if his buddy wasn't already pushing that theory with him.

I don't see a heavy belief that you were the traitor inside his posts like I do from Alisea, this could be because he was less active and forceful with his pushes but it's also plausible he was just taking an easy vote by copying Aliseas reasoning without actually thinking you're the traitor; this isn't something that's implausible to consider. Just don't understand how this singular action is something you're ruling him out as a lynch for.

No, I'm suggesting that ThinkBig didn't even CONSIDER his

top townread's main read

. He never even says "nah I don't think Desp is the traitor Ali." Why not???

/Headdesk. Majority of players don't alter their reads because their town reads have them, especially someone that's as inexperienced as ThingBig. This is pretty bad point given who you're talking about.

[Regfan]

Goon Cop
Roleblocker
Tracker

I like most of Daves reasoning behind voting Kop in Post 1270, he's not wrong in that Kop keeping his vote on Gamma and not commenting on the claim has scum motivation; he doesn't know which avenue he can push as scum whereas I think towns more likely to try and gamesolve here. If Kop fliips scum Dave certainly looks much better from where I'm sitting. And if Kop does flip scum SH deserves to be looked at.


-----

Okay mechanical post time;

1) If we have a

vig you have to shoot tonight

- Shooting confirms your existence without needing to claim, shooting also takes us from evens to odds meaning your shot gives us an extra mslynch, not takes one away.

2) If we have a

BG you should be on Gamma tonight

- If Gamma dies without a BG dying for him then there's confirmation that there's no BG inside this game without needing a PR to claim, if a BG dies in the night it almost confirms that Gamma is town given that it's unlikely mafia are taking a pot shot at the night and hitting the BG that way. Doing so also means we have another report from Gamma for sure.

3) If Kop flips mafia the tracker & roleblocker becomes a full cop in that whoever they target becomes clear if a kill occurs / no visit.

If Kop flips scum and we have a roleblocker or tracker it should go on a scum read.

[Regfan]

Ignore the three roles listed at the top of the post, that's just part of my notes when analysisng this.

I want to go through Dunns ISO & get a claim from Kop before we considering moving on.

[Regfan]

@ThingBig - What do you think of Kops dumbtell? Do like that you agree with my strong town reads on Alisea & Realo though I think both deserve to be above Gamma on your list for the timing being. Can you elaborate on your Desperado scum read for me and how that read has progressed throughout the game since that's the read you've explained the least.

I won't hammer until we get a claim from kop. If kop flips town, I'm thinking either Dave or desperado.

Please don't hammer till I'm ready as well. I'd like roughly ~24 hours.

[Regfan]

No, Kops absolutely not "soft cc'ing". Can you run me through exactly where you are with Alisea (Null alone doesn't mean much to me)? Can you also get to that Desperado read.

I'm referring to Kop stating he believed mafia knew the traitor via their role PM all game, if he's mafia he'd know this isn't true therefore he's either town or scum that faked the dumbtell. Your stance on that is appreciated.

And Gammas slightly lower in the placement order for me because it's not impossible that he's just fake claimed as mafia, that said his investigation target of Realo runs smoothly with how read Realo D1 to how he reacted to someone voting Realo D2. It's enough that I'm willing to call him probably town and see how the claiming situation plays out later in the game.

[Regfan]

@ThingBig - Why do you think Desperados push on you is him being mafia rather than him just being incorrect as town? Willing to wait for you to get to a computer to go through his/Aliseas ISOs to answer.

If scum really didn't add any modifiers then him claiming goon cop has a roughly ~1/4 chance of being CC'ed, that's not particularly high enough that would stop him fake claiming thinking he may be lynched otherwise. Like I said the way the claim happened and how he softed it does make much more sense as town but he's certainly not lock clear from it.

I'm conflicted on what to make of the dumbtell, I don't see how town that genuinely is reading through the thread can have that belief (That mafia knew traitor via role PM) unless they're not actually reading the thread properly and ignoring lots of conversations. I also don't see how Kop can have held that belief given some of his own posts inside this thread, the fact he's played the seutp before and the fact he's played as traitor where mafia didn't know who he was too. That said I don't know if attempting to fake a dumbtell like that is what mafia would think to do, it has scum motivation yes but is it the play they realise? Not sure.

[Regfan]

Realeo - TB did state his reads and where he was at before stating intent to hammer, I'd like reasoning behind some of his reads but he's stated he's willing to get to those when he's at a computer next which is reasonable. As for Alisea, his read has been changing on them throughout the game (Which is natural to happen for townies), he had them as a strong town read early on, scum read her for the fake hammer thing and then moved them to null which seems like a fair placement overall given his stance on them; he'll be getting around to going through their ISO shortly and we can judge him based on it then.

[Regfan]

Dunn - I'd like your thoughts on Kop in general & what you make from his dumbtell here. I'd also like your overall read on TB and the push that occurred on him. I recognise you comment on part of these inside your ISO which I'll be reading in the next 2-3 hours but would like your updated and current stance on both players with reasoning attached.

[Regfan]

Realo - It's not entirely a meta case with TB whatsoever, A) I think the way that AH pushed TB makes TB significantly more likely to be town than scum, I think the sheer amount of people trying to push the other avenue also suggests that I'm correct here and that scum are treating him a mslynch material. B) I'm actually town reading elements of TB's play ignoring AH's flip and C) I think some of the arguments put forward against TB are instances of people ignoring the type of player he is and stretching in regards to him in a way they're not doing wtih anyone else. You didn't want an "Inactive Child", well you got an active one, one that's more experienced than you and one that's telling you TB is town and not the focus needs to move elsewhere. With that said I do agree that he needs more elaboration on his Alisea/Desperado reads, I've asked for him that myself, you jumping in, voting him and attacking him instead of just waiting for him to get to it isn't helping.

Also I know that English isn't your first language so I'll point out for you that your Post 1303 is wrong, I didn't say "I like", I said "I'd like" as in I'm also wanting it from him. I also agree that the Kop wagon built up quickly, that said people sheeping an IC doesn't necessarily lead towards it being scum-driven; I think most people would do so regardless of alignment, I do agree with SH's vote being the most slimy though.

@Dunn - I agree that Kops "dumbtell" could just be him trying to back out after getting called out on his TB scum read not making sense. Also agree that his vote remaining on Gamma is bad.

[Regfan]

We're lynching Kop today, there's a serious flaw in his claim.

[Regfan]

If your town read on ThinkBig boils down to "He isn't good at this game" then I feel comfortable not sheeping you on him

This is a very big characterization of my read on TB, it's not "Bad player therefore town". It's I town read his play individually inside this game regardless of his skill level, I find the traitors push on him to make a lot more sense as trying to push forward a mslynch rather than a partner and I think some of peoples reasoning for scum reading TB is nullified if you look at his meta (re; promises unfulfilled / prod-dodging).I think that's ample reasoning to look elsewhere.

[Regfan]

Go on

As a town PR knowing that it's plausible (And in most cases likely) for there to only be two PRs inside the setup and with it confirmed that I'm one of them the fact he has not commented on Gammas claim

at all

is lacking a town mindset completely. His investigation choice of going for SSBM because he didn't push AH but then instantly voting Gamma today who was the leading pusher on AH shows a contradiction in thought process. TB pointed it out but stating you roleblocked a dead player is by far the safest fake claim scum can make, doing it on anyone else risks them claiming as a tracker ect.

Oh nevermind, I was reading it wrong. I did later include that in my characterization of your case. Most of the reasons you think he's town in the context of this game are informed by your meta of him not being a strong player, so I don't think I'm misrepresenting anything.

The "Traitor was likely trying to push a mslynch than a partner" has minimal involvement with his skill level of a player, merely what makes the most sense for scum to do and has the most scum motivation.

[Regfan]

If he's scum and it's likely for there to only be 2 prs why does he claim to roleblock the dead person when both other prs are outted instead of a random town

The first part is better, but it requires him to think that 3 prs are weird (scum would only have to recruit 1 power so it's not so out there?)

First part because faking a roleblock on someone else would have to mean he'd have had to scum read them and then explain why he didn't continue the push into today, roleblocking the dead means he only has to explain a scum read on a dead player, much easier situation to explain. As for the second part; Open 651 (Scum took 3 powers), Open 539 (Scum took 3 powes), Open 530 (Scum took 2 powers), Open 520 (Scum took 3 powers), Open 501 (Scum took 0 powers). It's generally a case of scum taking as many powers as they can or none, it's very unlikely they only took a singular one especially since the traitor is proven to be unrecruited.

[Regfan]

Like if you look at Kops reads yesterday and entrance into today (re; his vote) the person that makes the most sense to be his target (As Dave pointed out) is Gamma, given that Gammas claimed a report and thus he can't claim to have roleblocked him the next easiest target in terms of faking a roleblock on would be the dead player, there's a lot of scum motivation behind a claim like that.

That said I think a mass-claim isn't a bad move here, there's no particular individual role that's going to win us the game and having the most amount of information outed will help us evaluate the claimed playes as well as work out how much we can trust Gammas reports given that it's possible there's no goons. Scum already have a clear night kill target tonight so outing of claims won't change that too heavily but will help town.

[Regfan]

@Desperado - If he claims to roleblock a living player in the game he has to explain why he never scum read / pushed / voted them today, with the dead target he does. If there's also more than 2 PR's in the setup and he's mafia him stating he used it on the dead is also safe in that he can't be proven fake from it. Him stating he believed mafia knew traitor and ignoring Gammas big push on AH (Even if AH defended Gamma) is pretty contradictory in terms of his reasoning for roleblocking SSBM.

@Desperado - He was talking about my comment of "Fake claiming to be safe", he's not wrong in that if there's only 2 PR's in the setup then there's no risk of him claiming to have roleblocked a tracker. Not a slip.

I think a claim order of;

Davesaz
Superhans
Desperado
Dunnestral
Alisae (Assuming the slot gets replaced)
Realeo

Would help us.

[Regfan]

Yeah, I think we learn a lot from a mass-claim. Will just make it clearer in csase people skim the thead;

We're mass-claiming in this order;

Davesaz
Superhans
Desperado
Dunnestral
Alisae (Assuming the slot gets replaced)
Realeo

Dave, you need to claim now & Hans after him.

[Regfan]

If Kop is scum it's possible we only have 2 PRs. Anyway we shouldn't talk much about this until mass-claim has finished.

ThingBig, still want you to get around to elaborating on Desperado and Alisea.

Superhans needs to claim.

[Regfan]

Still think we're probably just lynching Kop here barring a good explanation of his actions but we really need this mass-claim to happen faster we so we can evaluate these claims.

I went over the Desperado/SuperHans interaction from a few pages back and didn't like it on SuperHans end at all, found that his stance in that argument didn't match his play inside the game.

I'm not actually scum reading Daves recent posts and find elements of #1424 (Particularly the "My town play is obvious it borders on being illegal" line) to be something that's very hard for scum to actually post.

SuperHans, really need your claim.

[Regfan]

In hopes of speeding this up you should probably just go now.

If Alisea is following along rejoining the game and claiming afterwards would stop this game from being stagnant.

[Regfan]

Alisae - Know you're around, if you're still reading this game we need you to get in here and finish this mass-claim by claiming.

[Regfan]

While waiting for Alisea/a replacement I finally went through Dunns ISO. I disliked Dunns defence of AH inside Post 367 and his Post 384, think it's very hard to have that stance after the lack of merit behind AH's case. I liked his response to Alisea in Post 493 about Desperado and traitors and Post 545. I liked his entrance into D2 about TB in Post 720 and liked his reassessment on Desperado around ~Post 723 and think his defence of TB!Town inside Post 804 is very town motivated. Did have a little chuckle at Post 846. Liked his reads inside Post 923 as they mirrored mine there. Very much agreed with his analysis of Kop inside Post 1148. All up I town read a lot of his actions and posts throughout the game but there's no singular action of his that I think is completely unfakeable. I think he's probably town here and certainly has the more logical reads in the thread but wouldn't entirely rule him out of being scum.

[Regfan]

Realeo, you're going down the tin foil road that Aliseaa went down of "The move of bussing like that makes so little sense that mafia did it because we didn't expect it!", it's not the right avenue to pursue at the moment. By all means if ThingBig is still alive in the 5 way and there's still scum left you can contemplate that world but for now looking at the most logical and likely world of scum pushing town is the best one to consider. As for AH's actions closer to a lynch it has two purposes a) Him "resigning and stating lynch me I'm town" is often a move scum make to get town read and b) It's a purposeful attempt to link himself with TB so that TB gets lynched post-flip. The idea that this is AH's first game on this alt means nothing in regards to what he's more likely or less likely to do in regards to bussing. As for you "Don't mock new players"; I'm not, I'm telling you to pursue another angle at the moment, even if TB's scum there's still a second and I'm not voting TB meaning the only likely way he gets lynched is with scums assistence (Meaning in the case he's town). And I'm not a bad play by any means; currently at 14 town wins in a row and haevn't lost a town game in 3 years. So please, just entertain the notion of TB being town for at least one day.

Hold on a second. Why is it not town consistent if Kop didn't roleblock Gamma? According to TB and regfan, we called it didn't consistent because he changed from Kyouko -> Gamma?
But from town!Kop's mind, when he roleblocked kyouko, kyouko is still alive. It's a double standard to expect Kop would vote for Kyouko despite he's dead, right?

The inconsistent part it this (And I'd appreciate if you think this thorough in detail before responding); There was a noticable scum read on Gamma from Kop yesterday, there was no no read mentioned on Ssbm. If you think his action of roleblocking is going to be used on a scum read (Which is always the aim of it) then you'd expect Gamma to be the target selected; given that Gammas already claimed a report it's not possible for him to claim to have blocked him. Sure it's not implausible that he actually did reread and in the night and think that Ssbm was scum for avoiding the AH wagon thinking the mafia knew the traitor but in that case why did he instantly vote Gamma today; the person that lead the AH wagon?

[Regfan]

At the time on day one, I suspected Gamma, but then when I seen kyouko positioning himself with regards to the AH wagon and totally misunderstanding the whole traitor, I felt that with AH flipping traitor, kyouko knew that he was the traitor. But being stupid, honestly, if I wasn't thick and actually understood the traitor role, I wouldn't have roleblocked kyouko at the time because it would have given me a different view to what he was taking. It would have boiled down to him actually seeing something AH not being scum, rather than knowing he was scum and just wanting to distance himself.

Lets just state you believed all of this was true and that mafia knew traitor & that Ssbm acted like he didn't want to lynch his traitor. Why vote Gamma today? Surely based on the analysis you did around the wagon (That was making you think Ssbm could be mafia) would have Gamma as more likely town to you given he was one of the people that were voting/wanting AH lynched throughout the whole day. Explain the disconnect to me. If you're town here you need to actually start contributing your thoughts on the game state and the players in it because there's a decent chance you get lynched otherwise.

[Regfan]

Meh, I wonder if this suspicion is from watching me in the large dance

Eh, it's not really suspicion moreso just cautiousness over my town read on you and has nothing to do with the Dance game. I don't see much scum agenda or motivation behind your posting here but I don't think the lack of that necessarily means you have to be town. I just think this is the type of room I'd actually like to draw scum in because with the way I'm reading the game I think there's enough townies doing the scums job for them which means scum can sit back and make logical/good posts if they wanted to. With all that said I mean you're probably town here? It's just if we went through the rest of my scum/null pool and the game wasn't over I'd consider you.

[Regfan]

@TB - Desperado is right, it's not IoA.

@Desperado - Not ignoring it, just think it's fairly worthless points in that it's super early game comments about Ssbm & if that was actually what would have made him scum-read Ssbm enough to roleblock him I think we'd have seen a scum read on SH today for the same reason (Scum read hm early on, was avoiding the AH wagon) which we never saw from Kop, instead he just revoted Gamma.

[Regfan]

ThingBig, I wanted some more detailed thoughts on Alisae rather than "Null" "Waiting for a replacement". What do you think of their play throughout the game? What do you like about it and what do you find scummy about it? Some substance behind that read would be really appreciated. I do like most of your lynch pool for today as it's fairly similar to mine (Except add Kop to mine as probably my top preference at the moment).

This is getting frustrating waiting for Alisea - if we don't see a replacement in the next few hours I might just post my analysis based around the assumption that they'll probably claim VT; not preferable though.

[Regfan]

Okay, so those are reasons to scum-read the slot, to have the slot as currently null you have to in turn have reasons you think they're town to put them there; what are they?

And Dunn I think you've correctly guessed what it is too.

[Regfan]

Really need that Alisea replacement asap.

mafia traitor is bulletproof btw so they wouldn't even die

I didn't realise it's BP until I looked at the setup specs. It's one shot though,

but obviously that doesn't mean anything, just means scum won't shoot that slot again.

This post above that you quoted Realeo strengthens my scum read on Kop. If he thought mafia knew traitor why is he even making the bolded section.

[Regfan]

TB, please respond to Post 1473.

Also this is getting silly how stagnant the games become, the replacement is badly needed. I'll be heading to the shops if there's not one by the time I'm back I'm just posting my analysis.

[Regfan]

Yeah I give up waiting for a replacement and am just going to play based on the assumption that Alisea claims VT, if they do differently I'll reassess and post my other scenario then.

Mechanically speaking there's only 3 possible worlds if Alisea claims VT;

1. Mafia selected 0 Additional PR's, Kop is scum. In this instance Gamma & Realeo are confirmed town.

2. Mafia selected 0 Additional PR's, Gamma is scum. In this instance Kop is confirmed town.

3. Mafia selected 1 Additional PR, Kop/Gamma are town. In this instance Realeo is always town if mafia selected daytalk (If they picked only 1 this is probably it too) and more likely town than any other player even if they selected a role.

So all up from that Realeo is almost always town. Personally I think it's more likely mafia went lots of PR's or none (Admittedly small sample size but this has been the case in prior games of this setup) so the fact we only have 1 additional PR claim here makes me think we've got scum fake claiming as they were getting run up -- it's the optimal play to make as scum in this setup and I think between them Kop is much more likely mafia.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All three of Realo, Alisaea & ThingBig are off the lynch table for me today and in the foeseeable future, the three of them are my strongest town reads inside the game. If people need me to elaborate on my reasoning behind town reading them any more than I currently have let me know because as it currently stands I don't want these guys lynched at all and think if these three recognise the others are town the odds of town winning this game go up astronomically.

I'm still inclined to think that Gamma is town due to the manner of his claim and crumbing (As well as logical progression behind the choice) of his Realeo non-goon result however if he doesn't die in the night (Which he almost certainly will if he's legitimate as his reports means quite a lot with only 3 PR claims) and Kops not mafia it's certainly worth considering him a bit, as it currently stands though if Kops mafia then Gamma+Reaelo are confirmed town and if Kops not mafia it's still possible scum are all goons (As they may have taken daytallk) so I'd consider his reports to be highly likely town results if he's legitimate. People need to keep this in mind when moving forward with the game.

I think Daves play since I've replaced in is outside of his scum range to the point where I'm not willing to lynch him today, that said I wouldn't rule him out entirely given that there's several things inside his play (Predominately pre-replace in) that have scum motivation behind them. I certainly want to see him actually providing more content and reads on the entire room outside of his one line reads list without having to be prodded for them. I went into it above but I've liked Dunns stances and play throughout the game, I think they've been the more logical and accurate ones, I wouldn't say I'm confident he's town but he's not in my lynch pool at the moment at all.

That leaves the players I'd be willing to consider lynching today inside of Kop (Current preference, awaiting his response though), Superhans & Desperado.

I touched on this earlier but if Kops scum that means there's no mafia PR's in the game. When getting run up there scum almost always fake claim a PR to hope to survive longer, he can't claim rolecop given it's already been claimed, impossible to fake claim vig and if he fake claims BG he can never kill Gamma without outing himself. That means as scum he only has two options; fake claim tracker or roleblocker. I think the fact he claimed one of these two roles alone increases the odds of being mafia, I think the fact that if he's scum he's stuck in regards to who he can claim to have roleblocked since Gamma claimed first puts him in a bad position with "The dead" being the easy out.

So I very much want to lynch Kop today and think the focus afterwards should be around Desperado/SuperHans initially. That said I don't want to actually have a hammer occur until we've given the mod a little more time to get a replacement for Alisea since if they are a PR that does change things quite a bit. I also want TB to get around to fully elaborating on his Alisea read (See above post) and Kop to try and convince me we're wrong if he's town as well as Gamma to contribute.

[Regfan]

Nydus, we need you to claim your role asap so we can finish this massclaim.

@Dave - If Kop is mafia that means there's only 2 PR's inside this setup (Assuming Nydus is a VT), that means that no mafias are roled and therefore Gammas no-goon on Realeo would be a clearance.

[Regfan]

Prior analysis stands in that case, think Kops very much the play today. Now that we've finished mass-claim everyone can post whatever analysis they had planned.

Nydus meet the remaining playerlist, remaining playerlist meet the troll that is Nydus. He's a lyncher with the sole win condition of lynching me; luckily enough I'm a jester with the sole win condition of being lynched.

[Regfan]

I've NEVER replaced into a game over 5 pages long... especially something with 60 pages (jesus christ) so I'm going to try my best to catch up but I definitely need some form of TL;DR. I don't particularly trust myself to remember everything because I'm not a note taker. Also, alisae surviving into day 2 as town is shocking. Surprised he didn't self hammer.

Quick TLDR of the important sections of the game is AH replaced in D1, hard pushed on TB, TB & others (Most notably Gamma) pointed out the several big flaws in AH's case and pointed out the scum motivation behind pushing it. The day 1 lynch for the most part was between AH & TB with other players having small scum reads elsewhere, some on Maria/Desperado slot for suspicion that it was a traitor. AH was eventually lynched D1 and flipped traitor. D2s focus was mainly between Gamma & TB, Gamma claimed goon cop (They check to see if players are a mafia goon or not) and got a non-goon result on Realeo. I replaced in and pulled the lynch of TB, wanted to lynch Kop who has claimed roleblocker stating he roleblocked the guy that died N1 and stated he thought mafia knew who traitor was via their role PMs (Which they do not) it's either a case of him trying to fake a dumbtell as mafia to get out of a tight spot he put himself in or townslipping. You'lll need to read the thread to get a better feel about how it all exactly played out and give your reads though. It's not actually that long a read through; did it myself not too long ago.

[Regfan]

Now I'll never get enough traction to lynch him.

If you make a really good case who knows, it's still possible! Maybe the mod fucked up and mistyped who the actual innocent child was in the OP.

For future reference, if I claimed cop with a red check on regfan, would I have gotten instalynched?

Well there's no actual cop in the setup (It's a semi-open type setup, recommend reading that part in detail to understand the gamestate we're at given we just mass-claimed) and claiming goon cop would be CC'ing someone else. So nope! Better luck next time noob.

You'll have to wait for an oppportunity to hammer me down the track with the reasoning of "I wanted to see if I was right D1".

Would recommend getting to reading the thread as soon as you can given deadline is in ~3 days, happy to hear whatever thoughts / questions you have on the game as you're going through the thread. Mafia traitor know who the two mafia members are (There are two remaining, no dumbtells this game Nydus), mafia know existence of the traitor but don't know who it is.

[Regfan]

So town start the game with 2 PR's regardless of mafia choose to do (The 2 that town get are randomised). Ever power that mafia wish to take upon themselves gives town an extra randomised PR. So if mafia took 3 powers themselves town would have 5 PR's, if mafia took 0 town would have 2. Given the current gamestate (Everyone have claimed) we know for a fact that mafia either took 1 themselves (Giving us 3 town PRs) or took 0 (Giving us 2) in which case one of Gamma/Kop would be mafia.

[Regfan]

We do not have a guaranteed scum between them, based on how this setup has played out in prior run throughs scum generally choose to take lots of power for themselves or take none though so the fact that we have a scenario where they may have just taken one thing points more towards there being a scum inside the claims though, inside them I agree the goon cop claim is more likely to be legitimate. The player he claimed to no-goon check was his scum read from D1, he told people not to vote them start of D2 and then claimed about mid way through D2 when he was wagoned, if he's scum he'd have had to preplan the fakeclaim which isn't impossible but it's more likely he's just legitimate.

[Regfan]

On a serious note, I don't think scum would replace in and vote for an IC like nydush did.

Knowing Nydus he would do it regardless of his alignment, his other posts since replacing in do come across as town and I think he did genuinely believe there

had

to be scum between Gamma/Kop which means he doesn't make sense as scum unless he's one of them anyway and with his push on the roleblocker claim being fake already I'd argue he's probably not with Kop. Pretty much my town read on Aliseas been strengthened via Nydus's posts thus far.

[Regfan]

You're townsiding scum.

I know, it's great isn't it? I'll hard buss my patner today and use that and this IC mistaken reveal to coast to 3 way and even receive the hammer so easily, probably even take you with me to hammer at the end. Wut u gunna do?

But get to reading the thread! Do actually want to hear your thoughts about how part of D1 & D2 played out since my analysis of the situation differs from several other players inside the game.

[Regfan]

I only got into the game D2 (I replaced in), the prior innocent child was a as Releo put it an Inactive Child, he never contributed and was just actively lurking with no content; he was no threat to the mafia due to that. Mafia likely shot elsewhere aiming for either a) A competent and active player, B) Someone they thought was the other PR or C) Someone who had active reads. It could be one or a combination of those.

Reading D2 is fine but D1 is kind of needed to understand the context behind peoples reads and pushes, especially in relation to what they thought AH was doing D1.

[Regfan]

I agree with whoever said that realeo (or whoever gamma nongoon checked) is very likely town, regardless of gamma's alignment. Even if gamma were to end up being goon, that's like, such a dumb thing to do to nongoon check your partner like that this early. ESPECIALLY when so much heat was on him. Plus, reg said that gamma was scum reading whoever he nongoon checked on day 1 so I feel like it's really weird thing for a scum to set up a fake inno claim on his partner from day 1 all the way to day 2. Especially with traitor bro lynched.

Yeah I went into this earlier but your point reminds me of another reason why Realeo is pretty much always town;

Three and only three worlds exist;
1. Gamma is town, Kop is scum. In this world there's only 2 PR's in the game, Gamma would be cleared as would Releao.
2. Gamma is scum, Kop is town. In this world if Realeo ever got lynched and flipped goon (Which he would have to be if Gamma is scum, only 2 PR's and all) Gamma would also become confirmed scum; not a move scum want.
3. Gamma and Kop are both town. In this world if scum took daytalk Realeo is always town, if they picked something else Realeo still has a very high chance of being town.

[Regfan]

Dunn is correct, it's confirmed to us that they didn't recruit the traitor; recruited traitor no longer becomes a traitor and becomes a goon.

I'll ditto Realeos request, TB you must have had something you read on Alisea town prior Nydus's replace in to have them as null overall; what was it for you?

[Regfan]

Also Dunn you were holding of posting some things before mass-claim was finalised earlier, was it all posted in Post 1459 or is there more?

Also now that mass-claim is finished no one has an excuse to be lurking / not contributing, we have three days till deadline; really need everyone to step it up.

[Regfan]

@Nydus - Personally I think daytalk is underrated as scum and would have probably selected it as well as recruiting the traitor as mafia either that or selected nothing; the rest of the powers don't seem particularly useful to me. I think people look at the setup and roles very differently though but again think the general consensus is people believe lots or none fits for everyone. I very much do think we have a fake claim happening here.

@Desperado - What do you yourself make of the mass-claim results? And why do you think Kops real? This isn't a stance you've shown much inside your ISO; you merely didn't want to lynch a claimed PR earlier.

[Regfan]

I'm about to go to bed but I'd appreciate if we don't have a hammer in the next ~24 hours. There's several things I want to have happen before we go ahead with that;

1) People need to get in here and post their thoughts/analysis of the mass-claim results, 2) Kop needs to attempt to explain the issues I have with his play, claim and state some reads since he's not done that at all this day phase really, 3) Gamma needs to get in here and post his reads since if he's town there's a very high likelihood he dies in the night (And he's currently not posted in ~5 days), 4) I'd like Nydus to have some reads/stances posted from the readthrough and 5) I'd like to leave behind a singular post with where my reads are with everyone in case it's my last.

[Regfan]

@Desp - Do you think it's more likely that scum would take 1 power over none then? If so which one? And ignoring the number of PR claims what's your individual read on Kops play & claim.

@Nydus - I'd rather you focus on stating what your reads are on specific players posts rather than X/Y aren't scum together due to Z post. We can hunt via interactions when we get a scum flip, until then it doesn't do us much good and would rather you focus on getting base reads on players in the game first.

[Regfan]

@Desp - I personally consider the JOAT very weak in this setup, it's only 2 1-shot abilities and using them optimally is difficult to do. In regards to Kop claiming to roleblock SSBM I think at the moment it's less fear of what other claims there might have been (Because if he's scum he knows there's no other) but the fact that he genuinely

couldn't

claim a roleblock on a living player; he would have to explain why he never voted or stated a scum read on the player coming into D2 where he voted Gamma.

[Regfan]

To rephrase to make it clearer;

You roleblock a scum read of yours; he didn't have any scum reads that he could fit roleblocking that was alive D2 given he voted on Gamma and stated nothing else. This means as scum he can't fake a roleblock on a living player other than Gamma, given Gamma had already claimed rolecop with a result that was no longer an option making roleblocking the dead the only viable fake claim.

@Nydus - Scum can't fake claim BG; we'd tell him to be on Gamma and Gamma could never die, something scum can't allow. The only roles scum could fake claim there were tracker/RB.

[Regfan]

AH flipped traitor and everything changed. I had them as town but I got paranoid over night so I wanted to make sure.

But this is thing though, he's stating that the flip changed his read in the night and made him suspect SSBM (For reasons that could have been attributed to several other players ftr but he never brings them up; seriously look at his reasoning there, then look at the end of the day) but there's absolutely no show of progression of his reads from the AH flip in the day today, he just votes on Gamma, the person that pushed AH the hardest while claiming to believe that mafia knew the traitor via role PM. If he came into today and had a bunch of analysis from the flip I could totally buy that night action, given his play today I think it's completely fake. I haven't actually seen any attempt from him to gamesolve or scumhunt whatsoever and given he's got a hatred for being mafia this is looking like his scum game.

[Regfan]

Also Gamma you need to try and catch up with this game asap, if you're town you're almost certainly dying in the night so leaving behind reads would help.

[Regfan]

How many town do I need for auto?

Lol that's not a thing here. We have 4 lynches to hit 2 scum effectively though so 6 of the 10 players can't be lynched. And you weren't wrong in that outside of Gammas claim there's a reasonable chance he's mafia, it's another part of the reason I want him to actually post some content before day end / we lynch, I just think Kops much more likely at the moment.

[Regfan]

I'm up.

Nydus how are you going with your catch up so far? Anything in particular you want to discuss?

[Regfan]

@Realeo - Thoughts on scum taking 1 thing only v 0? If you had to take a punt at the exact scum team right now who is it?

@Nydus - I'd rather you put forward your own thoughts and reads, I'm pretty positive you're town here and hearing someone elses reads that I trust would really assist me here given that my reads don't match those of most of the room. What's your read on TB's play individually? What do you think the AH push/play around TB does to TBs alignment? What's your read on Dunnstral/Desperado/Dave/Superhans overall?

[Regfan]

TB+Kops not impossible interaction wise, for the most part both avoided each other; only thing that suggests they're not partners is TB stating intent to hammer before Kop had claimed, that said I'm still reading TB town and think AH's push on him makes him more likely to be town here. I'd consider pairings like Kop + 1 of SH/Desperado/Dunna as more likely (In descending order) if Kop is indeed mafia.

Still really wish Gamma would contribute here if he's town because him lurking out the day is troubling to say the slightest.

[Regfan]

Only scumbags have conversations using emoticons. It's Realeo & Nydus, lock em up boys.

My strongest read is on realeo. I think he's pretty town even ignoring the claim on him. I'm kind of liking hans in terms of content but dislike his aggression but that could just be a personality clash thing.

Agree about Realeo entirely, he was my strongest town read before I even got to the report on him. I also had an early town read on Hans due to liking his content, I feel his content has dropped off significantly lately though and find a lot of his pushes and votes make sense as scum so eh I no longer have him in my town pool at all, in fact ignoring his D1 play I'd have a fairly strong scum read on his D2 play. My strong town pool atm is Realeo/Yourself/ThingBig and most people disagree with TB being town so you getting around to reading him is very much needed for me.

[Regfan]

We're like wasting days with people being inactive. What was the point of me replacing if people were just going to vanish into oblivion?

Indeed. I'd give Kop/Gamma another 12 hours to get in here and post something, if they don't I can't fault a hammer. In the meantime you rereading some peopls ISO's and discussing reads (What do you read TB as ignoring the fact that AH pushed on him, pretend he's a normal player in the game; is he town or mafia and why?) with me is a good idea, I'll also prep a final reads posts in that time.

[Regfan]

I agree with Realeo here; I don't think the "Annoyed v Passive" is that big an alignment tell to look into. Anyway I'll be popping in and out for the next few hours if you want to discuss any reads then.

[Regfan]

Alright, here's where I'm currently at;

Town (S->W):

Realeo, Nydus, ThingBig (Gap), Gamma, Dunnstrsal, Dave

Null

: SuperHans, Desperado

Scum (S->W)

: Kop

The top three town reads are very strong and don't want them lynched at any point really; you can start considering ThingBig when it gets to 5 way and the games not over though because I seem to be almost alone in town reading him via his play and one of the few that think AH's push on him increases the odds of him being town rather than scum. I think Gamma gets resolved either via the Kop flip (If mafia he's clear) or the night actions (If he's legitimate mafia almost have to kill him due to the strength of his reports), if he doesn't then it's worth considering him a little tomorrow. I have weak town reads on Dunnstral and Dave but wouldn't put a lot on those. Think there's a good chance that there's scum inside SuperHans & Desperado but agree with whoever it was that mentioned they're unlikely to be partners. If Kop flips mafia like I think he probably will here I think SuperHans deserves a good look at, him voting Gamma based on SSBM reasoning but not Kop is sketchy and there's a potential post from AH that makes sense signalling to both partners if Kops scum with him.

Think I've got everyone I wanted down in the thread and we've given Kop & Gamma plenty of time to get in here and contribute, wouldn't be too displeased with a hammer from hereon out; if anyone has an issue with Nydus (or anyone really) hammering they should make it known as soon as they can.

[Regfan]

my vote on Gamma wasn't ever because he was SSBM's target at one point. I literally just say that I'm carrying out her wishes, not citing it at all being a reason.

This is preciously what I mean though; when SSBM died his strongest scum read was Kop, his second strongest scum read was Gamma; you followed through carrying out their wishes by voting Gamma over Kop; this is something that makes sense if you're mafia with Kop. Think this is a fairly easy to understand point.

would like to see the suspect post that was targeted at me and Kop.

Post 388 he asks you and Kop the same question; it's the only time it directs something at two players, this admittedly is very tin-foily and could mean nothing but if Kops scum then there's a little more weight added to it.

[Regfan]

If I do die in the night would appreciate if everyone picked up their activity levels tomorrow, that's about the only way town are going to win this.

And my reads haven't changed from the last reads post I made. Mod scene with the flip won't be too far away I'd imagine.

[Regfan]

I'll be getting to this tomorrow; want to give some time for everyone else to get their thoughts down before I interrupt.

[Regfan]

Yeah I'll be getting to this in the morning; think leaving this thread for the unclears to interact has been relatively helpful thus far, has assisted me in getting / strengthening some reads. I'll go into them soon.

[Regfan]

So mafia in this game try to seem town, that means whenever someone seems really town they're probably just mafia. So lets kill the witch!

Vote; Nydus

[Regfan]

Unvote

-- That's the trollpost out of the way to even it up for him voting me yesterday.

In all seriousness the two town reads of mine that I don't ever see changing at this point is Realeo and Nydus. I'm putting TB in the reconsider section for now.

The check on Realeo alone increases the odds of him being town in comparision to all other players but before the check even came out he was my strongest town read and have found his play throughout the entirety of the game to be him genuinely attempting to scumhunt, poke and prod players to find alignment indicative tells. If he's mafia he's duped me to the point where he flat out deserves the win. If anyone has any doubts about him being town they should bring them up now.

I had a strong town read on Aliseas play (I think she genuinely thought Desperado was traitor and was trying to push him in a manner that scum wouldn't do so) and Nydus's replace in has only strengthened that read -- upon replacing in I think he genuinely believed there

had

to be a scum inside the PR's in that they were hard CC's (This is noticeable if you look at his exchange with me then) so the fact that neither flipped mafia is a huge point towards him being town. I similarly have liked the way he's handling today in terms of trying to find a town pool & a scum team that make sense, it matches what I know to be how he handles games as town. I'd be completely and utterly shocked if he's able to fabricate this while having near no experience as mafia in a forum mafia environment. If needed I can go back and link some posts to demonstrate exactly what I'm referring to about my town read on the slot so if anyone has any doubts let me know here too.

That means today I will effectively be trying to solidify my reads and thoughts on the remaining 5 players.

[Regfan]

@Desperado - I'd like you to sell me on ThingBig being mafia in the best way you can. The logic you presented yesterday still doesn't do anywhere near enough for me alone and I actually find your comments re; your stance on Kop very disingenuous today, you're massively over-exaggerating it.

@Realeo - What 'gambit' were you referring to inside Post 1659? Also just a heads up but Alisea isn't in TB's green in Post 1661, he's in black (null). Also please don't do quote spamming like that again. I think your point about TB ISO'ing in two minutes in Post 1741 and Post 1745 is a good one and one that points more towards him being mafia than anything else, his avoidance in responding to this for so long is similarly bad. What's your reads outside of TB atm though?

@ThingBig - If you're confident there's a scum and only one between Desperado & SuperHans and you have different degrees of town reads on most other players wouldn't it make more sense for you to a) Look at interactions to see who they'd both work with and b) Look at Dave more? You're doing neither at the moment.

I'm less inclined to believe that SH would intentionally dumbtell like he did in Post 1710 and Post 1715 as mafia given that it was a large part of the reason we lynched Kop yesterday, makes the entire action from him actually more likely to come from town (That or scum that didn't remember their own night kill which is slightly less plausible). I also liked his posts directed at Dave in Post 1746 and Post 1747 and have liked a fair bit of his activity and direction throughout this day phase.

I like Post 1832, Post 1843 and Post 1857 from Dave. Somewhat struggle to see scum make Post 1852 and think it's unlikely scum make the threat that Dave made inside Post 1889 directed at Dunn. None of them alone are huge town tells but the combination of all of them as well as Daves play and reaction when I replaced in yesterday make me lean town on him -- will be going through his ISO again in the next 48 hours but certainly not inclined to lynch him today at the moment.

Note to self; Desperados Post 1787 really doesn't come across well. Seen scum make that post very often and reads as unnatural overconfidence.

[Regfan]

1. No. There is two d2 readlist. The first one, TB puts Alisae at green. The null one is the second readlist.

Can you quote the other one for me? I can only find him having the slot as town D1, not D2. I think you may be remembering the facts incorrectly here.

Outside TB? I'm second guessing ndus and Dunnstral.

I'm pretty confident Nydus is town here, this is coming from someone that knows him outside of the game here. As mafia I don't think Nydus is capable of faking a post like Post 1511 as genuinely as did he so quickly (Compare timestamps between his posts) when as mafia he'd have to know everything he's stating in the post is completely incorrect mechanically and found his reaction upon finding out in Post 1514 fairly town. I can provide more on Nydus being town if needed, don't mind you looking into Dunn though. What's your read on SuperHans, Desperado & Dave at the moment? I really want to solve that trio as soon as possible.

[Regfan]

@Realeo - Here's the entirety of ThingBigs reads list that I can find, D1 #502 where he has Alisea listed as town, D1 #570, still has Alisea listed as town, inside Post 999 he finds recent posts of her scummy on D2 and votes her and mentions the same in Post 1039. Then in D2 #1143 he has her listed as null (maybe null town) in the reads list which he maintains in D2 #1466 until he states that he town reads the slot due to Nydus's posts and moves them to town in D2 #1621. Don't find the progression

that

bad overall, think your point about him pretending to read Hans ISO is much stronger. The post you just quoted isn't a new reads list, it's a copy of #1143.

@Dunn - I'll be looking into Dave in more detail soon, what exactly is your headspace on Desperado & Super at the moment? I know you've had both as scum for different sections of today but moreso looking for reasoning behind why you have them both as scum individually.

[Regfan]

@Realeo - I'm pretty positive I have the chronology correct (I mentioned the posts you're quoting in my narration of it) and if you look at it in the manner of; He had a town read on Alisea, he found a singular action of theirs scummy and had a knee-jerk reaction of calling them scum for it and then ended up just moving them down the town list in the reads list he had updated I think it's a fairly natural progression to have. Overall I don't think there's a smoking gun there like you do.

I'd rather we discuss other players if you've got a few minutes given I'll be doing a big reread through over ThingBig myself and we can discuss him then. I like some of your reasoning behind your SuperHans town read, I've similarly liked how he's handling Desperado today very much; what's your thoughts about him not knowing that Gamma had died (Or at least having forgot as much), I personally think it increases the odds of him being town here and would be interested in whether you agree with that or not. I know you don't have Desperado & Dave solved but what's your current read or stance on them? What do you make of Daves interaction and comments to Dunnstral and what do you make of Desperados exaggeration of his Kop town read?

[Regfan]

@Dunnstral - The point about Supers read on Dave is a solid one and I'd like for him to explain his read there too. I think Desperados tunnel on ThingBig makes some sense as both alignments; As town wanting to go back to his original scum read upon a town flip or as scum wanting to find an easy avenue to push that doesn't create new enemies. It's his attitude while doing such and his comments (and lack thereof) about other players while doing it which I find highly concerning so I agree with you there.

[Regfan]

Sorry am I being scumread?

Get wrecked noob.

I'm pretty certain you're town, Realeo has some hesitation with that read though I'm willing to talk it out if needed. Have you made any progression in regards to narrowing down potential scum teams rolling under the impression that your town circle is correct?

[Regfan]

@Realeo - I don't think we're going to see eye to eye on this TB read progression, I will admit that him not elaborating on it or answering properly himself isn't great and certainly an indication of him being scum but that's about all I can agree with. I find the act of having a strong town read on someone, reacting to a certain action of theirs as "They're scum!" then taking some time and deciding that your town read on them just weakens/they move to null is something that makes some sense.

And like I said before; I'll be re-evaluating TB myself, us focusing solely on him in our conversation certainly isn't helping me and I fear it may be frustrating you. I'd much rather hear your thoughts and opinions on everyone else in the room and all other events than this for the time being.

[Regfan]

No I'm not. I tried to explain to you more than once why Kop's actions were consistent (and that even if you didn't buy that, that inconsistency didn't necessarily make him scum). You didn't agree with me, and that's fine, but don't sugarcoat what happened.

Here's your progression yesterday; When I mentioned that TB was off the table yesterday you were the first person to vote Kop (Even before I'd commented on Kop) inside Post 1212 and effectively explained it to be that you had reasons to town read everyone else inside Post 1234. You switch back to ThingBig inside Post 1327 without actually making any comment on Kops roleblocker claim. And then switch to SuperHans in Post 1357 later saying to him "You feel confident lynching a claimed roleblocker?" in Post 1376. Inside Post 1397 you question some of the reasoning put forward behind Kops claim = scum but that's the extent of it. Your first actual stated town read (And only) on Kop is inside Post 1544 when he's at L-1 with deadline approaching and the consensus unlikely to change but has nothing attached to it and comes at a time where it makes sense for scum to grab town cred upon the flip, once pushed for actual reasoning you elaboate on it in Post 1557 but mention nothing about Kops actual play; same goes for Post 1570. So you disagreed with some of the reasoning behind his claim making him scum and you mentioned a town read on him once, that's all you did. Throughout this day phase you've attempted to exaggerate your town read on Kop which has a lot of scum motivation behind it.

[Regfan]

Seriously Reg, I know you're reading my posts so why are you just making this shit up???

I have made substantial comments on every slot. I have good reasons for town and scum reading everyone alive.

I told you guys Kop was real yesterday, and then the other claimed PR got shot. Literally nothing has changed from the middle of D2.

I don't see this reading your posts. I flat out don't.

You have made no mention of Nydus today and minimal mention of him yesterday.
You have made no real mention of Realeo today at all.
You have very little thoughts on Dunn out in the thread at the moment.
You have limited thoughts on Dave.

The only people I can agree you've elaborated somewhat into today is ThingBig & SuperHans.

[Regfan]

The first two quotes you've listed are 100% meaningless given you voluntarily voted Kop -- you were the first to vote him. The third quote is your vote on him, the following two are you explaining your PoE. None of these mean anything. The next one isn't you town reading him, it's you not wanting to lynch a PR claim; there's a signficant difference between the two. #1544 I quoted as the only post where you actually show a town read on him and your last post is after the hammers already been dropped thus utterly meaningless. All up you didn't portray a town read on Kop in the thread anywhere near the strength you're claiming to have had.

[Regfan]

Nydus is Alisae and I am the originator of "Alisae wouldn't call me out and push me as traitor as scum."
Realeo has been town the entire game. I haven't wavered on this.
Dunn has been town the entire game. I haven't wavered on this.
Dave is town for the same reason Alisae is.

?????????????????????

This is my fucking point though. There's been no progression from you on any of these slots throughout the entire game despite some of them being for fairly weak reasoning. I can understand a tunnel on TB, I've even acknowledged several times that I think that push from you isn't particularly alignment indicative and I think I've been fair in stating that. I do think the fact there's no actual attempt from you to solve the game in regards to the players listed outside of their D1 play is a big scum tell. There's been a lot more content and information presented since then, there's lots of posts or comments from them that would or could strengthen or make you start to doubt your reads on them; none of these have been shared in the thread, none.

[Regfan]

I voted him, he claimed,

I continuously defended him until he was lynched.

^This is 100% fact.

The bolded is a big exaggeration; you had 4-5 posts where you disagreed with some of the reasoning presented for him being scum via his role claim and had a singular post where you called him town, that's the extent of your "defending him". And what you would/wouldn't have done as scum re; picks this setup is irrelevant given you replaced in thus would have had no decision on the matter. The problem I have here is that your play today looks like an attempt to grab town-cred from the Kop flip by defending him when the majority of the time you were defending him via him being a PR/ not buying the PRscumcase rather than actually town reading him.

[Regfan]

@Desperado - I'd rather you just actually elaborate on your reads on the players using information throughout the entire game, hard clearing two slots for having thought you were a traitor and deciding that it's not worth commenting on anything else of theirs makes little sense to me. Give me a multitude of reasons why you've had Dunnstral as town throughout the entire game? Just give me something more to work, that's what I want from you.

And yeah; I'm planning on stepping back for a day; just want to make sure there'll be content in the right places when I get back.

[Regfan]

Will stick to my word of taking a day away from this to gather my thoughts on everything but do want to make the following clear;

I do not want a selfhammer or a lynch in the next few days.

Also wanted to mention that SuperHans is slowly becoming one of my stronger town reads.

[Regfan]

It's Australia Day here and will be preoccupied for most of it, will be getting to this game tomorrow though since I think I've had enough time to actually think about it.

[Regfan]

Mentioned it earlier but I'm growing increasingly more confident in SuperHans being town via his play throughout the day, I think his section where he believed Gamma was still alive and was defending him in Post 1715, Post 1719 and his reaction to it being revealed in Post 1727 is something unlikely to come from scum given what happened yesterday (Someone that dumbtelled got lynched) and I think as mafia he'd have been fairly aware that Gamma was dead unless there was a last minute target change from his partner. I liked the prodding of Dave in Post 1746 and Post 1747 and also ThingBig in Post 2055 and Dave again in Post 2087- don't think he outs information like that as a partner. I really found his interaction with Desperado especially in Post 1796 to come across as town. I liked his reaction towards TB contemplating selfhammering in Post 2066 and Post 2067. Really do find his play throughout this day phase as him attempting to get information and solving this.

So right now I'm moving forward with a solid town circle of [Regfan, Realeo, Nydus, SuperHans].

@Realeo - RE; Post 2033 I don't think Desperado is scum for pushing a 'bad' case on ThingBig, I don't think that push from him is very alignment indicative at all. What I do think makes him more likely to be scum than not is a) His constant refusal to actually evaulte players based on events that have transpired throughout the

entire

game, he's sticking very much to early reads and ignoring a lot of content which has little town motivation and fits scum with static reads. I understand that some players are stubborn and headstrong on "X did Y did therefore X is going to be town" but him not adding to the town read on that player or stating if any posts have troubled him (And him doing this on ~4-5 players) is a huge issue. And b) His play today in regards to Kop makes sense as scum attempting to grab some sort of town credit for defending Kop when the defence wasn't based on a 'town-read' the entire point as that was only mentioned once pre-hammer from him.

@Desperado - Can you at least try and work with me here; elaborate as much as you an as to why you town read Dunnstral as that's your vaguest read.

@Nydus RE; Post 2102 I'd agree with Hans/Desperado not being the scum team, also agree with the Desperado/Dunn scum team being posible. What did you find via Hans/Dunn and are you now going to change your town circle to look at other possibilities? What's your thoughts on SH?

@ThingBig - If you're town here you're going to need to make this game your top priority right now; there's a decent possibility you're getting lynched here today and if not today tomorrow. So if you're town you need to actually provide content and your thought process to actually show it to us.

@Realeo - What's your hesitation re; Nydus being town based around? I need to make sure you can see what I can about him before I die here given you two are my strongest town reads in the game. If you had to take two punts at the exact scum team at the moment what are you at? Also do you agree with SH being town now?

I'll be going over ISOs on ThingBig/Desperado/Dunnstral/Dave throughout the next few hours, I'll see what I can narrow down re; potential scum teams and try and narrow the scum pool down as well, really would like the above questions answered though.

[Regfan]

@ThingBig - Understand RL impacts peoples ability to get to the game at certain points but you'll need to make more of an effort to get around to this before Monday then.

@Realeo - Glad we see eye to eye on SuperHans then. I can understand your hesitation on Nydus if it's based around him maintaining his town read on ThinkBig -- I do want to see him elaborate on his thoughts on more of the playerlist then what he has but I still struggle to see him genuinely believing there had to be scum inside the 2 (Like believing they were hard cc's) as scum, I know him from outside of the game and am pretty sure he's town. If it's just a case of you wanting to be more certain he's town that's fine I'm willing to let you entertain that though. Thoughts on the two scum team guess that I asked?

[Regfan]

I'll respond to Desperados wall about his Dunn town read shortly but this is me acknowledging and appreciating it existing.

Anyway from where I was earlier I feel fairly good about Realeo, Nydus and SuperHans all being town and have gone into my reasoning behind town reading all of them in fairly big detail, if anyone strongly disagrees with them being town they should let me know what about my town read reasoning they disagree with and why.

That means for now I'm working forward with the assumption that both scum are inside ThingBig, Dave, Dunnstral and Desperado.

With them there's 6 potential scum teams to begin with;

1. ThingBig - Dave
2. ThingBig - Dunnstral
3. ThingBig - Desperado
4. Dave - Dunnstral
5. Dave - Desperado
6. Dunnstral - Desperado

I've only gone through Dave in detail so far (Will be going through all four of them though), here's what I gleaned from it;

I think Daves Post 144 points against him being scum with Dunnstral. His vote on Desperado and belief that he was the traitor D1 Post 540 and Post 645 heavily points against the two of them being a scum team. With mafia knowing there's two unclaimed power roles at the time they couldn't afford to buss at given existence of Tracker/Roleblockers would put them in a really bad position, I also think pushing a mafia partner with the case of "They're the traitor" is a really unlikely angle scum would take. I actually find his response towards SH in Post 795 to come across as town but do dislike his vote on ThingBig in Post 861 and makes sense as making sure he's voting a partner to get some of the town cred in the case that ThingBig is scum. I think his Post 942 and Post 1061 also point against him being mafia with Desperado. I found his response towards me replacing in to come across as fairly town in Post 1125 and Post 1136 and find Post 1424 as a fairly decent town tell; I think it's a post he'd have difficulty actually making as scum. I like the way he's wanting to approach the game inside Post 1843 and Post 1857. I think his interaction with Dunnstral in Post 1853 and Post 1889 points heavily against them being partners (particularly the latter post), the personal attack via 'misreading' is something I really don't see as scum/scum.

So overall I actually lean towards Dave being town at the moment, happy to rule out Dave-Dunn & Dave-Desperado worlds from existing. TB-Dave is possible.

So now at;

1. ThingBig - Dave - Daves vote on TB D2 makes some sense as making sure to get on the wagon of a partner about to be lynched, outside of that there's very little interaction between the two of them on Daves end and they do make some sense being partners.
2. ThingBig - Dunnstral
3. ThingBig - Desperado

4. Dave - Dunnstral
5. Dave - Desperado

6. Dunnstral - Desperado

Will take a short break and then get though one of the three remaining players. Would love others input as well.

[Regfan]

@Realeo - Can you run me through what's made you rule out ThingBig-Dave, would love to be able to do that myself but nothing inside their interaction from Daves end points against them being a potential scum team here. Please don't respond with anything like "It'd be too obvious".

I reject that analysis. That post is made 12 hours before deadline. There is no pressure to vote Desperado.

The first post was made with 3 days to go until the deadline, that's hardly "No pressure". The second was made closer to the deadline, yes but it merely restating his preference. Scum know there's 3 PR's inside the game, they can't exactly afford to risk bussing D1 and bussing via the means of "I think X is traitor" is a very weird avenue for scum to take. I'm still comfortable ruling out Deperado-Dave here.

I lek it is different to I townread him, I suppose?

I find it a town motivated way to approach the game, it's not particularly difficult to fake as scum but it does weakly point towards town.

If it's Dunn/Dave is usually a hint of Dave saying "Please stop bussing me or at least came up with a better reasoning to bus me. Your white flag gambit sucks." Also, let us be honest. Dunn scumread Dave out of nowhere. If Dunn used white flag gambit, it sucks.

I know you yourself may have used person attacks as a means of distancing recently but I think you'll be the first to admit you're not a particularly normal scum player; the fact that you faked being a VI as scum is testament to that. I don't attribute that level of manipulation to Daves gameplay and I think the manner the comment and interaction came across points very heavily against Dave-Dunn as does the only posts I linked about them.

[Regfan]

Patience young grasshoper, I've only typed up my thoughts on Dave so far. I'm currently working through another post on them.

Also amusingly enough neither of your spellings inside your spoiler are correct.

[Regfan]

Okay finished going through Desperado, I've stated my reads on his slot previously in this day so I'm mostly going to be looking at interactions here.

Will say that I did like the majority of his D1 play again on a reread particularly his analysis on Gamma and AH inside Post 353. I find his comment directed towards Dunn inside Post 389 to be phrased differently with how he interacts with most other players there, does make sense as scum trying to directly interact with a partner though. Still liked his prodding of people near the end of D1 inside Post 514 but it's still a very weak town tell. His switch from AH -> TB at the end of D1 when there was a very reasonable chance that TB was going to get lynched inside Post 658 and Post 691 points very heavily against them being partners. Him opening D2 up continuing to push on TB inside Post 776 when the AH flip gives him an avenue to stop doing that also makes very little sense to do if they're partners and there's unclaimed PR's out there. For the same reason I find his case and push on TB inside Post 858 and Post 859 to rule out that potential scum team. His first stated read on Dunnstral in the entire game comes in Post 1226 and it's when I questioned him why he chose to vote Kop and it was a town read on Dunn based on vague reasoning at the time. Disliked his accusation that Dunn may have slipped in Post 1400 especially given it wasn't met with a vote from him, never really came across like he actually believed it himself and does make some sense a scum theatre/attempt to distance, he restates his strong town read on Dunn inside Post 2011.

So I think Desp-TB is pretty much never a scum team and willing to rule it out and think Desp-Dunn makes some sense as a scum team from Desps side.

So now at;

1. ThingBig - Dave - Daves vote on TB D2 makes some sense as making sure to get on the wagon of a partner about to be lynched, outside of that there's very little interaction between the two of them on Daves end and they do make some sense being partners.

2. ThingBig - Dunnstral

3. ThingBig - Desperado

4. Dunnstral - Desperado - Desperados interactions with Dunn throughout the game have been limited and do come across somewhat differently in comparison to other players, the town read on Dunn was never mentioned throughout his entire ISO nor was it really hinted at until I questioned him about his vote placement on Kop over others; this does make some sense as partners not wanting to be hard linked to him early on and then stating a town read to explain not voting him when pressured on it. The "slip" section similarly makes sense as scum theater.

[Regfan]

Funny joka! Now answr dis plox?

@Realeo - Can you run me through what's made you rule out ThingBig-Dave, would love to be able to do that myself but nothing inside their interaction from Daves end points against them being a potential scum team here. Please don't respond with anything like "It'd be too obvious".

Probably going to leave the rest of the deep interaction reading for tomorrow since it's getting somewhat late here but happy to discuss some reads and thoughts for the next ~30 minutes or so if you're going to be around Realeo. Alternatively we could just both vote Nydus and call him a loser, either works.

[Regfan]

@Reaelo RE; Post 2187 so it's based on interactions from TB's end then, in that case I'll see it when I go through his ISO.

@Nydus - Sure, selfvote but the loser statement when doing so is mandatory. Looking forward to you getting around to some of your own analysis, think we need to work together to solve this. What's your hestiation re; SH?

@Dave - If you think TB is scum who do you think makes sense as a partner?

Regfan I'm not sure I buy into that pairing thing, specifically it looks like if I'm town thinkbig should be lock scum, and so if he's not I know the whole thing is wrong

Tell me which pairing you think I've ruled out incorrectly then or tell me which town read that I haven't included in the pairing you think is wrong. Just stating "I'm not sure I buy it because it makes me possible scum" is super vague and actually pretty scummy.

[Regfan]

@Dunn - So if you think the entire flaw in the pairing thing is that I haven't included SuperHans why not just state that initially? The way you went about it is actully very scum motivated. I've touched on SH-TB and SH-Dave briefly below and think they're not highly likely pairings or anything but can do a more detailed look later but for me to do that you're going to have to explain what about the town read on him you disagree with and why; also why you think he's currently scum.

Mentioned it earlier but I'm growing increasingly more confident in SuperHans being town via his play throughout the day, I think his section where he believed Gamma was still alive and was defending him in Post 1715, Post 1719 and his reaction to it being revealed in Post 1727 is something unlikely to come from scum given what happened yesterday (Someone that dumbtelled got lynched) and I think as mafia he'd have been fairly aware that Gamma was dead unless there was a last minute target change from his partner. I liked the prodding of Dave in Post 1746 and Post 1747 and also ThingBig in Post 2055 and Dave again in Post 2087- don't think he outs information like that as a partner. I really found his interaction with Desperado especially in Post 1796 to come across as town. I liked his reaction towards TB contemplating selfhammering in Post 2066 and Post 2067. Really do find his play throughout this day phase as him attempting to get information and solving this.

[Regfan]

That's not going to cut it Dunn, what you just stated is massively hypocritical.

[Regfan]

Effectively you've stated that you had a town read on SH and only now have him as your top scum pool guess via interactions but dislike how people have you as potential scum via interactions which is exactly what you're doing yourself. Scum motivation x1000.

You've also brought up the Dave-Desperado scum team without commenting on the posts I think make that unlikely; specifically Dave pushing Desperado D1 as a traitor and wanting him lynched; something that's very unlikely to happen between two actual scum members D1 in a game that has 2 unknown PR's.

It's not a case of "You're throwing shade" (By the way I hate the word shade), it's a case of I don't see a genuine town thought process -> action from you here.

[Regfan]

I'm not asking you to vote ThingBig? Nor am I asking you to take my analysis as fact? Neither of this has occurred.

I'm asking you to actually explain your reads and stances how you think mine are incorrect.

[Regfan]

I genuinely think the way you've reacted to this whole exchange makes a lot more sense as mafia. Put it this way; as mafia you look at that list and think you're boxed in and the best way to deal with that is throw vague comments out about disagreeing with the list, then when questioned about it throw someone you were town reading into the mix based on interaction analysis while disliking the usage of interaction analysis being used on yourself. I don't actually see much real gamesolving from you here, just options thrown into the mix with minimal backing or deep thought behind them.

I think town are much more likely to attempt to discuss reads here and put their own thoughts forward with their reasoning. I think in particular your stance on SuperHans, ThingBig and Desperado are all very problematic and not well thought out or at least put forward into the thread. I think you agreeing that SuperHans action from earlier makes a lot of sense as town but still maintaining him in your scum pool now has a lot of motivation to do as mafia. I think there's been minimal effort in regards to you solving Deperados alignment especially since he's not in any of your actual scum team guesses but you don't have a town read on him. I liked your town read and defence of ThinkBig earlier in the game but the read and reasoning has remaining fairly static as the games progressed.

The above point is actually a huge concern I have with your play here and points very very heavily towards you being mafia. Would appreciate others actually taking the time to read the above paragraph and then take a look inside Dunns ISO.

[Regfan]

I'm not aiming to lynch solely for "information" today, I'm using the combination of those pools and my reads to decide a lynch eventually.

specifically Dave pushing Desperado D1 as a traitor and wanting him lynched; something that's very unlikely to happen between two actual scum members D1 in a game that has 2 unknown PR's.

How many times this game have I talked about this, though? I've made it clear that I don't buy that narrative at all

I endorse this product.

I think believing that Dave joined in on a bad push on a town member as mafia is a reasonable stance to take, I don't think that action alone locks Dave in as town, in that regard I agree with Dunnstral. That said I find it highly unlikely mafia use that reasoning to buss a partner D1 when there's no reason to whatsoever.

[Regfan]

Anyway I'll be out for the next ~12 hours (Other than maybe a phone post). I'll get through Dunnstral and ThinkgBigs ISO's when I get back.

Would really appreciate others thoughts on what's happened in the last ~50 posts or so.

Also really want to see some actual content from ThingBig here.

[Regfan]

And am I the only one this applies to, because it looks like you're selectively choosing evidence

No you're not and no I'm not. I've stated the same concern with Desperado and ThingBig. I also want more from Dave. The only players I can actually see their thought processes put forward in the game to a decent degree is Realeo and SuperHans, I also have an idea where Nydus is but also want more from him.

And I'm not sure what you want from me exactly

What I want you should be wanting yourself if you're town, to actually solve the game? Your town read on TB is based solely around AH but have ignored TB's play since then despite several people including Realeo presenting evidence that admittedly does point somewhat towards TB being mafia, you've not really commented on much more about him since, it's a pretty weird angle to take as town. Similarly your stance on Desperado is ????? in that you have somewhat of a scum read on him but don't have him in your actual scum team guesses at the moment nor do you look like you're trying to work out his alignment. Your read on SuperHans is even more of a ???? in that you agree with my point that him not knowing Gamma was dead points towards him being town (Which is a fairly strong argument tbqh) yet when you disagreed with my partner analysis he was the first person you pointed to. If you're town I need to actually see thought process / reads from you.

[Regfan]

It's a real drag when I've been pointing things out but my main scumspect is lock town over dumb things I've talked about and my townread is useless/getting run up all game

I am trying to solve the game, I wanted to know if I should be voting thinkbig, because your list only has teams with him and 1 team with me and desperado

I don't think I need to figure out superhans/desperado while dave is alive

, because they're unlikely to be scum together. That leaves me with dave. If you want me to go over him again, I can soonish

Ummm. 1) Dave is far from lock town, he was inside my potential scum pool of 4, he's also in one of my 3 remaining scum team combinations; I don't particularly have a scum read on him at the moment but don't think the odds of him being scum are anywhere near 0 and if you're anywhere near as positive as you're trying to make out that he's scum you should be attempting to really convince me/others of that read which you haven't done that much of. Your scum read on Dave isn't even anywhere as elaborated as you think it may be inside the thread, there's a few votes on him for a few comments but nothing to portray the confidence you're trying to claim you have for it. 2) I don't think I control where your vote lands, if you disagree with my reads so be it but as town you should be wanting to work this out, either convince me I'm wrong or reassess yourself, you weren't really doing either. 3) The way you're treating SuperHans/Desperado here is exactly what I'm talking about finding scummy, the "I don't need to figure them out right now" is a load of bollocks, if you acknowledge that the votes likely won't be going onto Dave today you absolutely do have to sort them out, heck you even have to sort them out if the votes do go to Dave. The whole bolded section from you comes very very much across as mafia.

[Regfan]

Do you have extra reason?

Everyone in the game was scumreading thinkbig except for me and the IC, it makes you wonder

Okay so why is not impossible for scum to be one of the late voters on ThingBig, why is not possible for them to be one of the no voters on ThingBig? What do you make of Realeos point about ThingBigs fake ISOing going through SuperHans? Your read on TB is very empty overall.

[Regfan]

But don't you see that from what you put out, tb would be lock scum to me? Isn't that the figuring out reads thing you were talking about

I'll go over davesaz again later, I don't have the motivation to do it now

Except before doing and multiple times actually during the analysis I did I stated "If anyone thinks that I've left scum out of the analysis let me know" or "If anyone disagrees with one of these partner rule outs let me know", I'm willing to reconsider on them if you can present logic of reasoning that points towards it being wrong. I don't expect you to agree with all of my reads and stances on everything, I merely expect to to state where you disagree and why. I think that's reasonable.

I'm happy to wait re; your Dave explanation, we have plenty of time.

Fine. If I had to choose, RIGHT NOW, I'd lynch Desperado. This doesn't contradict what I said earlier about superhans

Okay; Now the important part; why?

What do you make of Realeos point about ThingBigs fake ISOing going through SuperHans?

I think that was a miscommunication, otherwise you're better off asking thinkbig?

It looked to me like he had already looked at it before, and continued to look at it and then posted after his first one (more than one tab open at the same time) My first thought wouldn't be "he's pretending to have read the entire iso in 2 minutes" because I don't know if anyone would fall into that "trap"

I am waiting for TB to get back to this game provide some content and answer some questions, it's a frustratingly long wait and am worried come Monday he'll use school to get out of even more. I took the way the exchange panned out between Realeo and ThingBig to be that ThingBig admitted to skimming it in 2 minutes, I think that's a reasonable scum tell. I think there's been quite a few things that ThingBig has done throughout this day phase that do make some sense as mafia and do make me pause about my town read on him and am struggling to understand how they haven't given you any pause on that read, it just seems so static.

[Regfan]

Yeah I've seen it Realeo and it's a huge concern, my patience is really waning when it comes to waiting for him to actually get to this game and provide content.

I'm also waiting on others to actually get in here and help too.

Anyway where I'm currently at with my analysis is the three scum teams below are the the only probable ones inside my scum pool left;

1. ThingBig + Dave
2. ThingBig + Dunn
3. Dunn + Desperado

I'll probably get to going through Dunn & ThingBigs ISO's to see if I can narrow that down any further based on interactions on their end tonight.

[Regfan]

Went through TB's ISO and I think TBs vote on Dunnstral in Post 475 points slightly against them being a team as does the exchange between them in Post 518-Post 522. The scum read on Dave inside of Post 1143 comes out of absolutely nowhere and does make sense as scum attempting to distance thinking they're about to be lynched themselves, the read vanishes after that up until Post 1466 where Daves placed in null and there's a weak town read stated on Dunn. I don't think TB's response towards Dave in Post 1856 points to or against them being partners at all. Really there's nearly nothing from TB abut either. Doesn't change where I'm at re; scum teams at all.

[Regfan]

@Desperado RE; Post 2244 I agree we seem to be reading the game very differently. I think scum are less likely to attempt to buss D1 in this setup specifically with 2 unknown PR's, the fact that his vote wasn't on Dunn for long though makes it a fairly weak point and you'd notice I still leave TB+Dunn as a possible world here. I've read your reasoning for town reading Dunn inside Post 2173 and I think it's very shallow; don't think his response to RQS is alignment indicative whatsoever and I think his treatment of TB has been rather suspect rather than a town-tell, I can see it as him attempting to WK a town player to look good upon the flip and also defend a partner in hopes of saving them. I think the fact that he's shown no reassessment of TB regardless of what's provided on him is a huge issue. I think his response to you re; "him not slipping" means nothing; it was never a slip therefore he can genuinely talk about it not being a slip regardless of alignment.

[Regfan]

@Dave - I agree a flip will help but don't particularly think rushing a TB lynch here is the right move. I'm trying to work with you here, I think you're town, you understand this right? You also understand I die tonight, right? So at least try and work back with me; who would TB be scum with from your perspective?

@Dunn - RE: Post 2251, I agree that his 'traitor' section isn't a big town tell, I think it's a big indication he's not scum with Desperado though. My reasoning behind town reading him is largely attitude and tone, I admit to this. It's the "I don't give a fuck I'm town" type attitude that I've seen in 5+ of his town games that I took a quick skim through, it's not something I've particuarly seen from him as scum. I think specifically his attitude in Post 1125, Post 1424, Post 1889 and Post 2253 are all posts that make sense from a town mindset from him and I'd struggle to see him actually make posts like that as mafia; I think he genuinely believes that his town v scum meta is miles apart and I don't think he brings that up as mafia.

[Regfan]

Also Nydus I need you here.

[Regfan]

Vote; Dunnstral

Will elaborate on this vote later but most of the reasoning has already been presented in the last ~3-4 pages.

Hi sorry D: I'm here. What do you need friend?

Read the last few pages if you haven't already, focus specifically on the interactions between Realeo/Me/Dunnstral and let me know what you think. I'm growing more and more sure that the remaining scum team is something like Dunn-TB or Dunn-Desperado.

[Regfan]

Oh I don't have a scum read on Realeo, he's my strongest town read by a long shot. I merely want you to read Dunns interactions with both of us.

[Regfan]

TB's been very active around the site in comparison to this thread, it's a rather big concern and I could see a world where it's TB+Dunn given it, Dunn never reassessing, commenting on or even acknowledging any of this despite being well aware of the activity difference as well as TB's problematic posting throughout this day phase is something I struggle to see coming from a town mindset. I similarly don't see Dunnstral actually attempting to gamesolve here much at all, he's far too happy to push on Dave (And do so

"confidently"

) without providing a whole lot behind his push while ignoring the rest of the playerlist, it's just scum play.

[Regfan]

We're going to need a lot more from you then that TB and really hoping the "When I get to the laptop" isn't another postponement of getting to this game for 24+ hours or anything. What's your reads on other players inside the game at the moment (With reasoning attached) and do you scum read Desperado based on his play or solely via linking him with Dunnstral? Some original content from you is appreciated.

[Regfan]

I don't normally think in terms of teams. I find it leads me to rule out good scum with few or more obvious teammates prematurely while incorrectly pairing town with scum or each other.

That's fair. What I'm moreso trying to get at is that if you remove your strong town reads I want to see how many players

might

be left because I think you'd agree that Desperado-ThingBig are never a scum team so that's one person that'd be removed instantly and fairly safely.

Dunnstral's adamant refusal to back down on calling me scummy without being able to specifically point to specifics causing the read is a big red flag, but unfortunately I know he does this as town.
Superhans overreliance on asking other people their reads is also a red flag.
I would not want either of them in LYLO.

What do you make of Dunnstrals reads on players that don't involve you though? And do you think him overly focusing on you to the point where he was happy not looking at other players at all is more likely to come from him as scum or town? He's effectively used his read on you to not look into Desperado/Hans much an still hasn't got around to commenting on TB at all really. What specifically about "asking others for reads" do you think is scummy from Hans? I do it a lot as town and find that it's a good way to get content into the thread from others as well as understand their thought process.

[Regfan]

I'm voting him because he's my strongest scum read at the moment and by some distance too; if you take a look through his play this day phase there's not really a genuine town thought process or attempt to solve the game really shown, his push on Dave lacks solid foundation and looks more like an attempt to push a weaker player, him being content doing that while ignoring what's happened re; TB & putting Hans/Desperado to the side is a big problem. Him going from agreeing with me that Hans dumbtell makes him much more likely town to wanting him in the suspect pool (In fact adding him to his most likely scum team) doesn't come across as town. The fact that he's also inside 2 of my 3 remaining likely scum teams is just a bonus on top of that, technically TB is also inside 2 as well though.

[Regfan]

Reg, you're fucking it up again. Dunnstral is town.

Pretty damn confident he's not; I'll elaborate into this when I get home tonight (Heading out in ~20 minutes) but there's been several things from him today (And tbh throughout the game) that points pretty heavily towards him being mafia, one of the larger ones being his read on TB. I can understand his initial town read and defence on TB given I was along the same thought process but the fact that his read on TB never progressed throughout the game is a big red flag. He's effectively ruled him out

entirely

ignored new evidence and information that points towards TB potentially being scum and flat out not commented on him, to do that while also barely defending TB when there's a wagon forming on him today makes no sense as town.

[Regfan]

I mean, it makes sense when you consider that he was the only one to defend TB before you replaced in, he has been consistently defending TB as town, and TB's play has been the same literally the entire game so it doesn't make any sense to be scumreading him now if he was townreading him before.

Very untrue. Go back and take a look at his reasoning behind town reading TB, his reasoning is entirely based around AH's interactions and nothing to do with TB's play at all. It's fine to be of the belief that AHs play makes TB more likely to be town (I thought the same thing) but to use that as a basis to town read him alone and ignore TB's actual play does not make sense. The fact he's maintained this very stance on TB today while ignoring logic that has nothing to do with AH pointing towards TB being mafia (TB's way of dealing with SH, TB's activity elsewhere in comparison to here etc.) does not have a town thought process behind it.

[Regfan]

I mean do me one favour; open up Dunstrals ISO and do two searches; "ThingBig" and "TB" and look at the progression throughout the game. He constantly states he has ThingBig as town and that he doesn't want to lynch him, then look at the reasoning that's attached to it; it's solely and 100% based around AH's push on TB and then stating "Scum are pushing TB", none of it at all has anything to do with TB's play. Him maintaining that read with information that doesn't relate to AH makes no sense, none. He doesn't comment on the other reasoning, he doesn't state other reasons he town reads TB, there's nothing.

PEdit: That's fine, I wasn't particularly expecting your vote anyway. Would have liked your support though.

[Regfan]

@Dave - His scum reads at the moment are ThingBig + SuperHans. I personally think Dunnstral is the way to go today.

Will say this though Nydus, if you're town which I think you are I'd appreciate you actually contributing a lot more than what you currently are, want to be able to leave behind a strong town read on you and at the moment your inactivity is weakening that read slightly.

And with that I'm out.

[Regfan]

@Realeo - I don't agree with your SH hesitation in Post 2298 and think it's your fever talking. I do agree with TB ignoring the questions and just throwing a vote down in Post 2296 being a concern though. I really think Dunnstral is the correct lynch here and given todays my last day would appreciate you either voting with me or discussing this read with me in some more detail, happy to wait until you're better though (Get well soon!).

I thought about this more while I was out but lynching Dunnstral almost tells us Desperados alignment as well regardless of flip nearly.

Follow along;

Realeo is just always town here, this is a read that'll never change; (Cop report, his play etc.)
Alisea was Nyduss predecessor and she was the person that pushed (Quite strongly) on Desperado D1 in a way that scum wouldn't to a partner. Nydus-Desp = No.
Dave also pushed on Desperado D1 and there were some interactions between the two of them that point towards not being partners. Dave-Desp = No.
SuperHans & Desperado are just very very clearly non-aligned, everyone has also stated and agreed with this already pretty much. SH-Desp = No.
ThingBig has been pushed on throughout D1/D2/D3 by Desp in a way that scum can't afford to do so. TB-Desp = No.

That means the only scenario that Desperado can ever be scum in is with Dunnstral. Lynching Dunnstral either leads to a scum flip (Which I'm expecting and we'd want) or leads towards Desperado becoming as near as cleared as well upon a town flip in the worst case scenario.

Why are you scumreading Dunn and hard townreading nydus...when they are townreading ThinkBig...for the same reason?

Lots of different reasons? I don't consider their play all that similar at all & Nydus isn't entirely ruling out TB to the degree that Dunn is.

@Dunnstral RE; Post 2301 I think I am being very fair with the analysis; the reasoning behind TB being scum has changed throughout the game, sure others may have maintained the point about AH leading TB to be scum but they

did

provide other reasons which you never considered or addressed, that's where my issue with your read on him stems from. I don't buy the "I don't use activity is an indicator" in Post 2302 at all.

[Regfan]

My work resumes tomorrow so my activity will somewhat drop off (Will only be able to get to this game between 6-11PM AEST) but really can't stress enough how I think lynching Dunnstral is the right play here. He's my strongest scum read by a long margin, he fits in two worlds I consider very realistic and also provides a lot of information in the worst case scenario of a town flip which I really don't see happening with lynching him anyway.

I'd bet quite a lot on Dunnstral being scum here. Like would eat a hat on video if wrong. Would really appreciate people moving to him here.

[Regfan]

@Realeo - I've elaborated on most of it earlier, I'll quote the relevant parts;

1. His read on TB doesn't make sense coming from town;

I can understand his initial town read and defence on TB given I was along the same thought process but the fact that his read on TB never progressed throughout the game is a big red flag. He's effectively ruled him out entirely ignored new evidence and information that points towards TB potentially being scum and flat out not commented on him, to do that while also barely defending TB when there's a wagon forming on him today makes no sense as town.

Very untrue. Go back and take a look at his reasoning behind town reading TB, his reasoning is entirely based around AH's interactions and nothing to do with TB's play at all. It's fine to be of the belief that AHs play makes TB more likely to be town (I thought the same thing) but to use that as a basis to town read him alone and ignore TB's actual play does not make sense. The fact he's maintained this very stance on TB today while ignoring logic that has nothing to do with AH pointing towards TB being mafia (TB's way of dealing with SH, TB's activity elsewhere in comparison to here etc.) does not have a town thought process behind it.

I mean do me one favour; open up Dunstrals ISO and do two searches; "ThingBig" and "TB" and look at the progression throughout the game. He constantly states he has ThingBig as town and that he doesn't want to lynch him, then look at the reasoning that's attached to it; it's solely and 100% based around AH's push on TB and then stating "Scum are pushing TB", none of it at all has anything to do with TB's play. Him maintaining that read with information that doesn't relate to AH makes no sense, none. He doesn't comment on the other reasoning, he doesn't state other reasons he town reads TB, there's nothing.

2. His Dave read and the way he's handled today doesn't make sense coming from town, it's not a thought process or progression into the day that makes sense as town, it does make a lot and I mean a lot of sense as mafia on the other hand;

Your scum read on Dave isn't even anywhere as elaborated as you think it may be inside the thread, there's a few votes on him for a few comments but nothing to portray the confidence you're trying to claim you have for it.

The way you're treating SuperHans/Desperado here is exactly what I'm talking about finding scummy, the "I don't need to figure them out right now" is a load of bollocks, if you acknowledge that the votes likely won't be going onto Dave today you absolutely do have to sort them out, heck you even have to sort them out if the votes do go to Dave. The whole bolded section from you comes very very much across as mafia.

Similarly your stance on Desperado is ????? in that you have somewhat of a scum read on him but don't have him in your actual scum team guesses at the moment nor do you look like you're trying to work out his alignment. Your read on SuperHans is even more of a ???? in that you agree with my point that him not knowing Gamma was dead points towards him being town (Which is a fairly strong argument tbqh) yet when you disagreed with my partner analysis he was the first person you pointed to.

I think in particular your stance on SuperHans, ThingBig and Desperado are all very problematic and not well thought out or at least put forward into the thread. I think you agreeing that SuperHans action from earlier makes a lot of sense as town but still maintaining him in your scum pool now has a lot of motivation to do as mafia. I think there's been minimal effort in regards to you solving Deperados alignment especially since he's not in any of your actual scum team guesses but you don't have a town read on him. I liked your town read and defence of ThinkBig earlier in the game but the read and reasoning has remaining fairly static as the games progressed.

Effectively what he's done today is not scumhunting, it's not trying to solve the game, it's very obvious scum play. His reaction towards my partner analysis for instance where he "disagreed" with it since it makes TB scum to him if he agrees with the reads without stating what he disagreed with until I pushed him and his reaction being to throw SuperHans under the buss despite agreeing with the town tell from him is not town play.

[Regfan]

Oh Realeo, don't get me wrong. I see and agree with most of your points on TB, I think the lack of content from him throughout the game and the fact he pops in to throw a vote down on major wagons that aren't himself is a big scum tell, I think Dunn+TB is a very realistic world, I merely have a stronger scum read on Dunnstral than ThingBig at the moment and think that Dunnstral can also fit with Desperado here whereas ThingBig cannot.

I've done you the service of stepping back and reassessing ThingBig throughout this day phase, he went from one of the top town reads to someone that's in the top three re; my scum pool. I'd really appreciate you do the same service back and take a look at the points against Dunnstral because they're

really

strong.

[Regfan]

Realeo, re; 1 - I think Nydus is still very fresh to the game (In that he replaced in not that long ago), most of his reads and thoughts still haven't been presented. I have stated that I want more activity from him and won't leave behind a legacy clearance on him until I actually get that from him -- so no I'm not letting Nydus's lack of activity go unnoticed. I do want his thoughts and have asked for them, that said I don't find the same scum motivation in his posts re; TB as I do from Dunn. Re; 2 - Dunn stated he'd get around to the Dave scum read explanation, it didn't happen and no it's not a case of "Asking and waiting" for everything, if he really believed Dave was as scum as he made him out to be inside his posts we'd be able to see exactly where he's getting the read from, we can't. His read shown inside the thread from all of Dave/SuperHans/ThingBig/Desperado (Which is majority of the damn playerlist) are huge concerns. =

[Regfan]

I think TB's post and vote on Dunnstral there means very little re; the possibility of them being partners or not. I can see a world where TB!Scum votes Dunn!Town as a mslynch to save himself, I can see a world where Town!TB votes Town/Scum!Dunn due to thinking he's being buddied by scum and wanting to vote a counterwagon to himself and I can see a world where Scum!TB votes Scum!Dunnstral to distance with each other since there's no longer any PR's to catch bussing from hereon out.

[Regfan]

Realeo, you agree with me that Dunn/Desp is a very legitimate possibility. I also assume you agree that Dunn-TB is a possible world. I've also noticed from some of your posts that you don't particularly have a strong (or any) town read on Dunnstral. Level with me here and read the posts I've made about Dunnstral, then go through his ISO and either throw down a vote on him or tell me why you think he's town here.

[Regfan]

It's not a case of "The narrative fits", ignore the interaction analysis if you like since frankly that's mostly for my own benefit.

Instead look at the reasoning I have for Dunn being scum based on his own play, his play today does not resemble town or someone scumhunting at all. Based on how he's playing today he'd have to have a strong scum read on Dave, if that's the case the reasoning behind his scum read would be solid and very noticeable, that's not the case. He's attacking why some people are town reading Dave (And that's fine and all) but he's not stating why he's scum. He agreed with SH's dumbtell today making him very likely town but then when the suggestion of Dunnstral being scum came up he very quickly threw out SH's name instead, this again does not make much sense as town. He's shown no real effort to discern SH's and Desperados alignment. He's ruled out TB for a singular reason and ignored other reasons put forward for him being scum until I point this out and then suddenly woop he has TB as potential scum now. He's made little comments about Nydus at all. Where's his scumhunting today? It doesn't exist, dudes just scum. I really need you to notice this and join me here.

[Regfan]

You need to start attacking my case at ThinkBig then.

I agree with a lot of your TB case re; his recent play? I think the manner he handled SH's ISO was scummy, I think his activity elsewhere in comparison to here is a scum-tell, I think the manner of him jumping in to vote major wagons is a scum-tell? I don't disagree with you on any of this and I actually did you the service of stepping back, reasessing and reanalysing his play and I can see him as scum? I merely think the case against Dunnstral is stronger. I've gone into great detail about why already.

[Regfan]

Let me explain why your case @ Dunnstral is weaker in a 1/2 of hour. I need to get a water. Making wall of post during fever is no easy job.

I don't mind waiting until tomorrow when you're feeling better. I'm heading to bed in ~20 minutes anyway so no rush.

[Regfan]

Yeah, more I think about it the more I'd prefer you to wait ~24 hours and make your explanation post then Realeo. I know what I'm like with a fever and unless you're superman I can't imagine that you'd do whatever point you want to make the justice that it probably deserves. Plus I only want to have this conversation once with you so it's best to have it be when you're at 100%. Also it'd be good for others to come in and state their opinions beforehand anyway.

[Regfan]

TB if you're town self voting is game throwing ftr.

[Regfan]

If Dunn hammers I want him lynched regardless of TBs flip tomorrow.

[Regfan]

Okay heading to work, won't have net access for 12 hours, if you're town Unvote yourself Thinkbog.

[Regfan]

@SuperHans, Dunnstral only has two votes on him at the moment, it's safe for you to join us.

Well I've already given my opinion, I believe, @regfan. Maybe you're expecting me to reference posts

It's more a case if you're town I want to see it from your posts, I had a strong town read on you earlier but your decrease in activity and content as the days progressed has weakened that. I want to be able to leave behind a "Never lynch" town read on you, as of right now I can't do that.

I think desperado has a higher chance of landing scum, or more cases of being scum partners IMO with other people.

Elaborate for me? I'm on the other side there and touched on it inside Post 2309 where I only see Desperado working with Dunnstral, no one else whereas I can see Dunnstral with more people than that. The more you can walk me through your thought process here the better.

How come this isn't cause for concern with people's reads on tb, but only for me?

Most people pushing on TB or their strongest scum read have elaborated as to why that's currently their read. I disagree with lots of Desperados reasoning but I can at least understand how he's making the read he has. I can follow Realeos thought process on most reads. Same goes with the other player to a certain extent.

[Regfan]

Quite the contrary. It's an obvious Dunn + TB if any of them flips scum. Think about this. TB, who entire D3 play is dodging lynch of him is now inviting lynch? He's paniking because Dunnstral is now being lynched. I mean, TB voted Dunn. Now he voted himself? When the wagon is shifting out of him, he no longer votes Dunn at the opportunity. What's the matter? Why he is no longer opportunistic?

This was my initial impression of it as well. I think TB!Scum selfvotes there to save his partner Dunn a lot of the time, he knows that he himself isn't going to endgame the town meaning if he loses his partner he's just outright lost and wants to lose his own life knowing Dunn has a higher chance of winning it for them. I mean it's possible it's also TB!Town being really shit and just selfvoting there but as scum his biggest motivation to selfvote is if Dunns his partner.

[Regfan]

@Realeo - I also agree the manner TB selfvoted looks more scum than town, I don't think the action means he

has

to be scum but more likely than before it and think if he is scum making that move it's pretty much absolutely with Dunnstral as a partner. Also re; Dunnstal an his TB read it's not a semantic argument whatsoever, it's a "look for the motivation behind the play and see if it makes sense as town" which it does not argument. But as long as you're willing to agree that both worlds of Dunnstral+TB and Dunnstral+Desperado are looking very plausible then I think we agree on enough for now.

[Regfan]

@Realeo, lets make a super awesome deal? You join me on Dunnstral today and you get a cookie! First come first serve and there's only 3 cookies remaining, with SuperOompaLoompaHan calling dibs on one there's really only two cookies remaining. To sweeten the deal you also win my support of instantly lynching ThingBig if Dunnstral ever flips town (Which he won't) as well as my support in hunting in the Desperado/TB pair in a Dunnstal scum flip.

[Regfan]

As promised:



I do apologise for the missing part, Nydus ate more than his just cookie...

[Regfan]

Dunns Post 2367 is pretty disingenuous. His constant postponement re; his Dave explanation is because he knows he's going to have dificulty faking reasoning to be able to match the confidence in the read he showed early, this is a very big scum tell.

"Lining up lynches" is actually a misused scum-tell, people don't recognise that stating reads re; flips beforehand is often a neccesary evil that town has to do.

@ThingBig - You promised analysis re; Desperado/Dunnstral from your end, get to it.

@Reaeleo - It's not "easier" to lynch Dunnstral at all. Dissapointed man, I already gave you the cookie and all.

[Regfan]

@Realeo - I mean attempting to back off the Dunnstral wagon because of "Speed" when it's been far from 'fast' to convince people to actually vote him makes little sense, if you play based on the knowledge that I'm confirmed town ergo my vote is meaningless re; wagon speed and also n the same logic that your vote means nothing re; wagon speed since you're town in your own eyes then there's only 2 question mark votes on the Dunnstral wagon to you (Nydus, SuperHans) and also 2 question mark votes on the ThinkBig wagon (Desperado, Dave) with Dunnstral/TB just being counterwagon votes. Certainly not a logical reason to move away.

Anyway heading to work, will be back in ~12 hours. Still very positive that Dunnstral is the correct avenue today.

I'll read Nydus's responses when I get home but Nydus if you haven't got around to it yet I want to hear from you who you think Desperado works with as scum other than Dunnstral himself since that's probably our larger disagreement in reads thus far.

[Regfan]

To be fair there's not a lot for Desperado himself to respond to at the moment, there's plenty for Dunnstral to get around to on the other hand. Desperado not acknowledging the problems with Dunstrals play throughout this day phase is concerning (I can use this word too!) admittedly as is him ignoring the TB-Dunn world.

PEdit: Cut by Desp himself.

[Regfan]

Dunna well aware he's not actually hammered.

[Regfan]

1. Reg, 2. Nydus, 3. SH, 4. TB that's l1 not a hammer.

[Regfan]

I'd not be opposed to realeo hammering him though

[Regfan]

Finally got home, work sucks.

@Desperado RE Post 2415 & Post 2416; I don't consider yours and Dunns reads on TB to be similar in the slightest, they're worlds apart really. You've got a detailed read and stance on TB with lots of information to back it up, I might not agree with all of it but I can see very easily where your head is with him and can see you pushing a motivation that makes sense if you're town (Wanting to get your scum read lynched ect.), the same cannot be said for Dunnstral. He's mentioned earlier that he thought AH's actions against TB make TB town, that's it. That's the extent of his read and reasoning, there's no mention of any of TB's play himself or others reasoning for reading TB scum, there's no in detail reasoning behind why he willing-fully maintained the TB town read the length he did. It's a super empty read.

@Nydus RE Post 2423; I think you can also agree with me that TB+Desperado are never a scum team while Dunnstral+TB may be one so that's another strike against Desp having a partner and a plus for Dunn having one. So yeah, I stand by that I can't see Desperado with anyone other than Dunnstral.

Dunnstrals Post 2437 is using logic and reasoning to back up his read on Dave after-the-fact. He's still not mentioned why he thought Dave was scum beforehand.

Genuinely wouldn't mind a hammer to be dropped right now. Really think we're dealing with Dunn+TB or Dunn+Desp.

[Regfan]

Thanks for the hammer. If Dunnstral does flip scum I think you should indeed be hunting between TB/Desperado, Dunns defence of TB and TB's self-vote timing both make a lot of sense coming as scum partners, there's been little actual interaction between them and nothing really pointing against them being a team. Similarly Dunn & Desperados way of handling each other make plenty of sense as scum in that they barely even commented on each other, Desperado defended Dunnstral and Dunnstral always made sure to have someone more important to focus on then looking at Desperado, very much how partners handle each other.

Regardless of the flip I think that Realeo is town here, I had a strong town read on Nydus but it's somewhat weakened -- wouldn't recommend lynching there or anything but also wouldn't let him get away with lurking throughout any of the next day phases. I have a fairly solid town read on Dave, still think tonally and attitude wise he has difficulty making several of the posts he has throughout the day and still think Hans forgetting that Gamma had died points more towards town than not, wouldn't rule them out entirely from it but again certainly think it's enough for that not to be the avenue tomorrow.

So effectively I think if Dunn flips scum hunt in Desp/TB and if he flips town TB is a fine lynch or place to focus.

[Regfan]

so you think tb is scum whether dunn flips town or scum but we lynched dunn first makes sense

Rather the opposite? I think Dunnstral is scum regardless of whether or not TB is and I think if Dunnstral is scum it can be either TB or yourself.

[Regfan]

Not to mention the fact that I had a stronger scum read on Dunn than TB?

Anyway just waiting for the mod to lock this and post the flip now.

[Regfan]

1) i mean that was obviously fmpov but the fact remains that 2) you have TB as likely scum regardless of what Dunn flips

I generally tend to base lynches on my reads from my point of view, not others. The latter is true though, I've come around to the potential of TB being mafia a lot.

I just don't understand how you've arrived here. Hans makes soooooo much more sense as TB's partner and you've pretty much ignored everything I've said about him.

I don't have a scum read on Hans? I think him forgetting that Gamma died points more towards town than scum, I've liked the way he interacted with Dunnstral and yourself and can see at least some attempt to scumhunt from him, it's not a rocksolid town read but I didn't and don't share the scum read you at him? Shrug? I think I've provided enough content that even if you don't agree with my reasoning behind Dunn being scum you can at least acknowledge that I am coming from a place of genuine suspicion and finding the manner he's handled this day as one that fits scum particularly in how he's handled reading you/tb/sh/dave throughout the game and here. I mean if I'm wrong credit to you for having it right and if I am wrong on him I do think you're actually just town here but I don't think I'm wrong at the time being.

[Regfan]

Regfan

Hello, Grapes is online ie. This thread will be locked very very shortly. If you're town provide your reads (and reasoning on Dave) quickly for the others and we can talk in the dead QT. If you're scum I'd hope to see some Faraday level trolling from you.

@ Reg: I meant everything I've said w/r/t Hans being ThinkBig's partner.

If I'm wrong here on Dunn then you will almost certainly have the support to lynch TB tomorrow, it's merely about you convincing the remaining players it's SH then.

[Regfan]

I'm not complaining about being given another day to finish this. Initial instinct is that the kill on Realeo (Despite him being confirmed town via Dunns flip) points slightly moreso to ThinkBig being scum given he's aware that Realeo was going to hard push him today and would want him dead over me.

I'm going to do a reread of the game with the knowledge of Dunn is scum, I want to be able to completely remove the option of SH/Nydus/Dave being scum before I actually lock in a chain lynch of Desperado/ThingBig being a game winning move.

Desperado, hope you at least remove that "Why listen to the IC????" shit from you game today now. Want you to work with me here, explain in real detail why ThingBig+Dunn are not a scum team. Dunn would have been aware there's a PR claim in the shadows when the initial TB push was going through with it being a 2/3 chance of being a tracker or roleblocker; these roles turn into a full cop with 1 scum remaining, he could not afford to buss at all therefore his defence of TB makes a lot of sense as scum there, after Kop had died he no longer has to worry about TB dying or not as he can't be caught via roles so his turnaround on TB makes sense as scum D3 as well. TB similaly selfvoted when Dunn was getting run up. So yeah, convince me why you ruling this option out is you having a town thought process.

[Regfan]

Your Post 2489 and interaction with me around Post 2457 and Post 2458 were infuriating to read from my perspective.

Re; Dunns turnaround, his defence of TB D2 re; his stance on TB D3 has a noticeable decrease. His stance on TB has a lot of motivation if they're partners, a lot and I think you can agree to this. I don't think Dunn thought his stance on TB was going to be called out as much as it was, I think he thought he could have gotten away with it and truthfully had I not brought it up it may have gone unmentioned or at least with him receiving as little slack as possible. I'd also point towards TBs actions throughout yesterday re; the timing of his selfvote to make a lot of sense if the scum team is exactly Dunn+TB since TB is never end-gaming town as mafia. I really don't see any reason whatsoever to rule them being out a scum team and you're going to have to provide a lot more for me to ever understand you doing so.

I have no issue with evolving reads, my reads have changed several times throughout the game, that said I think evolving reads needs to have a real thought process with solid logic behind it to make any real sense. I think you providing lots of reasons for X being scum, the scum that flipped having defended X in a position where scum couldn't allow a bussing happening should never allow you to remove X from the suspect pool. Sure you removing him from the pool doesn't have any direct scum motivation re; dodging a singular lynch but it does allow you to break free from the "Desp or TB" plan that would lead towards you losing as scum.

[Regfan]

Anyway I'm going to carve out a few hours tonight to go really read through this properly and hopefully reduce the suspect pool really confidently to two with no doubts about the other reads at all, I'll post my analysis once I'm done but others chiming in and stating their thoughts would be much appreciated.

[Regfan]

ThinkBigs initial vote on Dunn could easily be considered as distancing while believing that the odds that Dunnstral getting lynched were relatively low, to actually lynch Dunstral town needed a vote from one of [Dave/Desperado/Realeo] and at that point it looked very likely that neither vote anyone other than himself, it's a very low-risk high-reward distancing vote at the time. Timing of his selfvote was once he realised that Realeo was very much contemplating voting Dunnstral which makes sense as a ploy to save Dunnstral from being lynched, he was called out and attacked repeately about this afterwards which pretty much forces his hand re; his final vote. This is a narrative that makes plenty of sense as mafia and therefore should certainly not be an angle that you'd be removing considering as town.

Similarly if Dunnstral is mafia with TB he absolutely has to defend him on D2 regardless of if he's the only person doing so or not, mafia getting lynched there with a tracker/roleblocker in the game creates autowin just from surviving 2 nights and a very high town win rate surviving the singular night. It's also not impossible that he was trying to go for town cred in the ThingBig!Town situation but there's nothing here that allows you to eliminate the possibility of ThingBig being mafia.

I also think you kill me after how yesterday played out but know that it involves a lot of WIFOM and things I'd rather not focus on reading into too much.

[Regfan]

I attribute different competences towards his scum and town play, bussing or distancing is not something I think is impossible to come from him he was comfortable enough to distance with a partner in Micro 672. Again let me just make this clear, I'm not saying you have to have a strong scum read remaining on ThingBig, I'm not even saying you have to be voting him right now. I'm saying you

ruling him out

is what makes no sense, there's plenty of things that can be explained with him being scum here and sure some that can be with him as town (I know the OOG you're referring to) but he's very far from being anywhere near a town list and think you ruling him out here is nonsensical, even moreso than I found you not realising that Dunn was mafia. Would like to see a lot more analysis from you and particular some reasoning that points towards Dave being mafia because I hard ruled out Dave-Dunn as a scum team earlier; I'll be going back over him/them when I reread but it's not a possibility I consider highly likely.

[Regfan]

Evening SuperMan, so effectively Nydus is the only person you feel comfortable with right now? What's your scum read order of Desp/Dave/TB at the moment and why? Particularly interested if you have any reads based on interactions between players from those three and Dunnstral that impacts your read.

[Regfan]

@SH - You should take a look at them sometime and we can talk afterwards.

mafia is such a weird game sometimes

This I can agree with.

if you two were dunnstral and thinkbig and you were both scum, does your play even

remotely

resemble what occurred?

I probably play it very similarly to have Dunn did albeit wouldn't be so passive come D3 but that's moreso a playstyle thing.

why do you as dunn stick to your guns when your flip is literally the worst case scenario?

Because lynching ThingBig and TB flipping scum clears a lot of townies, it's never a great move for scum to intentionally aim for. TB's flip hard clears you, pretty much hard clears Realeo and certainly hardclears Aliseas slot holder Nydus. It also provides a mine of information for town to hunt in.

[Regfan]

If you look at it from the perspective that N2 Dunn thought I had a town read on him (And I pretty much did) and that I was also alongside with him in defending TB he goes into D3 under the impression that he's absolutely not getting lynched and that TB may also survive, this is a good scenario for him and therefore makes him pushing players like Dave/SH fit with the narrative I'm drawing. I think you agree with me that until I brought up and hard pushed Dunnstral he was never getting lynched yesterday, he also would have believed this making the reasoning you're ruling out TB-Dunn very questionable. Again I can understand you maybe not hard pushing TB to the level you were yesterday but ruling him out based on a lot of things that objectively make him look bad? Nope, not following that.

I'll discuss your reasoning behind your Dave scum read and my read on him and Dunn once I've done the deep reread so remind me to get back to that then.

[Regfan]

TB scum flip certainly would have cleared you in my eyes, you attempted to lynch him D1/D2 & D3 all while knowing that there's 2 unclaimed PRs in the setup knowing if they're specific roles you could be putting yourself in near autoloss by hard bussing like that in a 2 man setup, if you take that big a risk as scum and it pays off kudos to you but anyone making that move is someone I'd town read or expect to lose mechanically. Would have made Realeo look a lot better re; him pushing TB pretty strongly all game and certainly 100% would have cleared the Nydus slot, Alisea replaced out because they refused to drop their TB scum read when conversing with me, that is not a s/s thing to do. I think intentionally flipping TB D3 as a partner would have been a move Dunn avoided as much as possible given doing so provides far too much information towards the town, even if he looks good via his D3 vote on TB his D2 play would also be a strike against him.

but the

main reason

you turned on dunnstral was his

sticky thinkbig read

...

This is not true. And this is what I found so fucking frustrating trying to explain to you yesterday, it wasn't his TB read alone that I scum read. It's the way he handled reading you/dave/superhans//tb all combined, it was very obvious scum play and had absolutely no town motivation behind it whatsoever.

[Regfan]

Stop stop stop this damn angle you're going with. It's so illogical it's making my head hurt. You're playing under the assumption that Dunn thought it was likely that he was going to be lynched going into D3, this is not a stance he would ever have had given I had a town read stated on him D2 and absolutely no one in the game was pushing him. Look at it from his perspective, he doesn't get pushed until mid-late D3, everything beforehand is him being comfortable as scum, as comfortable scum you don't buss knowing doing so makes a lot of town players look better than you based on how D2 played out.

i didn't say it was that alone
i said it was the main thing that began to turn your read on him
is that a mischaracterization?

Yes. It certainly is. (I never use emojes but that's the only nice way I can think to put that).

[Regfan]

You're missing the point here. Dunnstral flipping his read on TB and joining the push on him while being able to distance himself a little from TB provides town a lot of information to work with, a scum flip (Meaning the game always ends at F3 instead of F5), lots of information to work with based on how D2 played out (Including him defending him then). Even if I'm not alive there's other people that have eyes, internet and the ability to read that would be able to bring up how TB interactions impact the living players, sure him intentionally bussing may have made it look

better

than not but it still doesn't make him look

good

. Better scum play, the one I would have made and the one I expect most people to make his maintain the town read on your partner and go for the win via pushing people that you think are mslynchable (ie. Dave/SH), again and this is something you have to agree with; Dunn couldn't have thought he was genuinely in threat of being lynched going into yesterday therefore he's not making moves that are based on self-preservation for himself.

Like you should never be able to remove TB-Dunn as a potential pair based on any of this, they may not be the exact scum team but there's nothing here, nothing at all that should allow you to remove this from the realm of possibility.

[Regfan]

last thing before i go to bed, reg:

why are you alive and not realeo?

Could be because TB is scum and knew that Realeo would hard push him over anyone else today. Could be because you're scum and thought leaving me alive removes my legacy and thought you could make me second guess albeit I don't think that's particularly likely. Could be because it's neither TB or you and scum thought leaving me alive would help them get a win. Could be for lots of reasons, I certainly don't think it's worth

too much

reading into it.

shit, it doesn't make a lick of sense for thinkbig OR me to leave you alive

...Yeah I'm done interacting with you, you have no sense of logical thought process in you at all and I'm somewhat actually praying that you're scum faking this level of stupidity but don't really think that's the case right here. TB has to make a kill last night, he has to kill one of Realeo or myself, shooting Realeo leaves myself alive; the current situation knowing that I'm lynching between You/Him ie. 50% chance the person he leaves alive votes him, if he kills me that leaves Realeo alive, someone that has a 100% chance of voting him; there's plenty of reason for TB to kill Realeo over myself there.

[Regfan]

Truth hurts. You're attempting to suggest that even the night kill makes TB town when regardless of who he shoots he knows the other person has a chance to push him the following day and the person that actually died was the more likely of the two to vote him in the day. The night kill if anything points towards him being scum, not points against it; he may not necessarily be scum but the angle your pushing here is nonsensical. Your inability to understand this basic concept combined with your inability to even acknowledge yesterday how Dunns play was clear mafia just means we're never going to have a logical conversation on any level.

That said I'm going to go have a beer and relax for a bit before actually digging into the reading and trying to solve this properly. I'm happy to discuss thoughts and reads with anyone else in the meantime, would particularly love to hear some content and thoughts from Dave & Nydus in the meantime.