Open 58--Texas Showdown - Over - before 545

[somestrangeflea]

slash confirm

[somestrangeflea]

...

Who actually

is

player five?

[somestrangeflea]

1 to 4, top to bottom.

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

[somestrangeflea]

Vote: Flameaxe

I used confirm order due to a lack of official playerlist...

You can't argue with dice...

[somestrangeflea]

Vote: Flameaxe

Srsly.

[somestrangeflea]

I'd vote Flameaxe because I have an absolute horror of Ramen (it's all I could afford to eat through much of college, and I can't even stand to look at it today),

but I'm not gonna be the second vote on him.

Question: Why?

We have to start somewhere but basically something about the opening posts seems a bit odd to me. somestrangeflea questions "who exactly is the fifth person?" when he could have easily looked that information up in the Queue where we all signed up. If somestrangeflea and Jester are the undercover police officers, this could have been an early attempt at distancing as he couldn't possibly be linked to Jester since he didn't even know Jester was in the game. And then Jester's pre-start random vote lands on somestrangeflea for preventing Jester's chance at voting for the Ramen noodles guy (Flameaxe). Another attempt at distancing?

I'm torn between my desire to commend you for what was a decent post and my desire to scream "WELL YOU'RE WRONG, OBVIOUSLY."

Question: How feasible do you believe it is that the aforementioned actions were a part of a planned distancing tactic?

[somestrangeflea]

During a holiday period, I wasn't willing to take that risk. It would have been way too easy for motivated scum to quickly end the game with two votes on someone during that time.

I disagree with the above, personally, but can see where you're coming from, so fair enough.

HOLY CRAP, INCOGNITO AND FLAMEAXE ARE GOING AT IT!

If this weren't Vengeful, and I didn't know about some of the varied tactics for scum, I'd think this:

Fos: Flameaxe and Incognito

for blatant distancing.

...was BS. As it stands, I think it's a dead cert that at least

one

of them is scum, though I'm not sure which...

As for inactivity, my sincerest apologies. Every time I looked at Watched Topics, I assumed there was no progress, since Incognito was always the most recent poster...

[somestrangeflea]

Your statement could be a subtle attempt at paving the way for a mis-vig if one of us is lynched.

I fail to see how

I'm

paving the the way for a mis-vig when...

If I'm hammered, I know exactly who I'm vigging.

I think that ssf is playing with the numbers, not really what is exactly they are trying to get done.

The odds of at least one of any two players (besides myself) in the game being scum are 83.33...%. That is, the odds of the first player being scum (which includes the scenario where both are scum), 50%, added to the odds of the first player not being scum and the second player being scum, 33.33% (50%*66.66...%).

Oh, and I started making the numbers part of the post before Nocmen posted, I just got interrupted midway, and your post was there when I Previewed!

ssf, you haven't given a reason why you're certain one or the other is scum.

Take the scenario of two players attacking each other fiercely. When you take into consideration the fact that the first townie to get lynched gets a vig, I do not believe that two townies are likely to fight tooth and nail to get each other lynched, simply out of fear of getting vigged and losing the game if they're wrong.

Also, take into account that, if neither Flameaxe nor Incognito is scum, then Nocmen and you

both

are, and I believe that the first situation is far more likely... Reading through pages 2 and 3 under the assumption that they are both town just doesn't work.

[somestrangeflea]

Incognito and Nocmen, although to be fair, the Nocmen is fairly OMGUS, since I have absolutely no idea where his opinion of me changed. 76 is a comment about numbers, but doesn't really lean either way. Before that, you were all for the Incog<=>Flameaxe pairing.

What changed?

[somestrangeflea]

This is because I'm seeing the whole fight between Incognito and Flameaxe as well as ssf's number game WIFOMy.

I'm sorry, are numbers

all

you see?

Oh, and

Unvote, Vote: Incognito

.

Oh, and my last post was 47 hours ago. I hardly see that as prodworthy, kthx.

[somestrangeflea]

Oh, and

Unvote, Vote: Incognito

.

Question: Why? You never really stated your reasons.

Because Flameaxe isn't one of

Incognito and Nocmen

And a combination of gut and

An admittance?

In short, it's not very strong, but it's always good to have a vote on

someone

. Let's everyone know where you stand.

[somestrangeflea]

SSF, the numbers are not all that I see persay, but they are what I see as you trying to put scum blame on someone else.

The numbers are bullshit. Whilst being statistically accurate, they can be applied to any two players in the game (excluding me, of course, as they are written from a Fleatown perspective).

Jester agrees with the stuff below the numbers, but not the numbers themselves.
Nocmen directly challenges the numbers, but finds them WIFOMy rather than wrong.
Flameaxe and Incognito, the people who the numbers were directly trying to incriminate, don't even notice. Then again, Flameaxe only posted to ask for a VC...

But no-one noticed that 83.33...% doesn't matter. Funny that.

So who are the scum?

The mute, the under-overthinker, the man who misses the point, or the man who's right for the wrong reasons?

Incognito's lack of crap-case defence confuses me. Both scum and town should be defending themselves against craplogic, but he hasn't. I was also thinking of voting him for inconsistencies regarding his playstyle. Firstly he was overthinking, and now he can't see crap in front of him? But again, both town or scum could be doing this.

Flameaxe has been fairly quiet after his encounter with Incognito. He could be scum flying under the radar. I see no real reason for him not to be posting content, he's plenty active. He asked for a votecount only 2 days ago. I'm suspcious, but that's not who I'm going to vote for.

I'm not pleased with the way Jester's been trying to take my vote. Trying to guilt-trip me for the possibility of someone else's mislynch seems like scum who could be trying to push a timid player in the direction they want. I dislike this.

Nocmen. He claimed that my numbers were WIFOMy, so he clearly read them, but he didn't point out that they were wrong. He knew the numbers were off somehow. He was right for all the wrong reasons. Thing is, when you know exactly who's who, it's very easy to be right for the wrong reasons regarding everyone else. Very, very easy...

Unvote

It's too early in the day for a lynch.

Vengeful games are fast. Open 49, six pages, 2 days. Open 26, six pages, abandoned D1. Open 16, eight pages, 1 day. Open 15, seven pages, 2 days. Open 8, seven pages, 2 days. Open 7, eleven pages, 2 days.

Vo-

But let's wait until everyone chimes in before we get down to roping, shall we?

Mod: Flameaxe prod, plx.

[somestrangeflea]

You're whole post is irrelevant because my earlier post relates entirely to reactions to post 77, and your current one relates to 89.

[somestrangeflea]

EBWOP: You're => Your.

[somestrangeflea]

So you're talking about the numbers portion of your post 77?

Yeah. The numbers have no relevance, and Nocmen was the only person who came close to realising that fact.

I tried to work out reasons why that may have happened.

[somestrangeflea]

I personally didn't understand them and didn't see them as an attack against me. Further, the only time numbers like those have any relevance in a game of Mafia is when you're assuming the players are randomly voting for one another without using information that was drawn from the game thread. Therefore, I personally decided not to comment on them because it didn't seem like a strong argument anyway regardless of whether or not your numbers were actually correct, and I thought they seemed a tad self-righteous (I don't know about all of you but I'm definitely town so you guys fit into these numbers, not me!).

Touchez.

t seems like Nocmen's issue with them is that he classified them as WIFOMy. I'm guessing that he means in the sense where your numbers rely on us assuming that you're town

No they don't. They rely on the person reading them being town.

[somestrangeflea]

I agree, I am still waiting to hear from Flameaxe

Ditto.

[somestrangeflea]

Why is it that important things keep happening when I'm unable to post?!

As much as it is useless now, I was planning on voting for Flameaxe once he said words, returned, but then the entire group silenced itself, and I wanted to make sure everyone was present before I did stuff. As I said earlier

But let's wait until everyone chimes in before we get down to roping, shall we?

Which reminds me, Jester, hi. How are you?

[somestrangeflea]

As a clarification, this

Which reminds me, Jester, hi. How are you?

was simulposted into irrelevance. Should hit "Preview" more...

Question for you: if you were going to vote for Flameaxe, why didn't you do it on Wednesday/Thursday when the game was quite active?

Thursday/Friday in my timezone, I was either drunk or preparing to get drunk.

By the time I sobered up, game had died again.

It revived on Sunday. By the time I had a chance to post, Incognito had died.

[somestrangeflea]

OK, ssf, looks like you've lied three times here.

First lie:

As much as it is useless now,

I was planning on voting for Flameaxe

versus:

Flameaxe has been fairly quiet after his encounter with Incognito. He could be scum flying under the radar. I see no real reason for him not to be posting content, he's plenty active. He asked for a votecount only 2 days ago. I'm suspcious,

but that's not who I'm going to vote for.

I was going to vote for Nocmen

then

. I changed my mind in the interim. And I know it seems like backpedalling, but I meant "would have" rather than "was going to".

Second lie:

Why is it that important things keep happening when I'm unable to post?!

versus: You posted on MS twice on Sunday, both before and after Incognito was lynched.

Third lie:

Thursday/Friday in my timezone, I was either drunk or preparing to get drunk.

and

As much as it is useless now, I was planning on voting for Flameaxe once he said words,

versus: You posted on MS four times on Thursday afternoon after Flameaxe had spoke, and again Saturday morning. Either would have been an ideal time to get your opinion and your vote in.

Scum don't seriously vote for their partners when there's a chance their partner will get lynched. They threaten to, and claim they were going to, but never do. So, I've got one serious lie, two more minor but still telling lies, and your voting patterns, all telling me that you're Flameaxe's partner.

What say you?

Saying "I was unable to post" sounds much nicer and a hell of a lot less arrogant than "When it boils down to it, I couldn't

really

be bothered looking here then."

So yeah. Jester seems to be remarkably pro-town. I'll do what I should've done a while ago.

Vote: Nocmen

Nocmen votes me.
Jester votes me, and, to be honest, with good reason.
I die.
Nocmenscum wins.
The end.

Good game, but my own laziness royally fucked the endgame up for you, Jester.

And if you are scum, well...

you probably deserve the win anyway. =V