OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #1975 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:23 pm

Post by Realeo »

The question: What happens between 1039 and 1439 for him to townread Alisae?
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Post Post #1976 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:23 pm

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I mean, between 1039 and 1143.
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Post Post #1977 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:25 pm

Post by Realeo »

Keep in mind that 1130 readlist is made
before
the replacement.
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Post Post #1978 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:28 pm

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In post 1048, Alisae wrote:I guess I'll believe Gamma's claim now that Realeo showed up.
Realeo's logic makes sense to me.
Lots of it.
In post 1080, Alisae wrote:My thoughts are...
In post 1084, Alisae wrote:Algebra is a fucking normie.
In post 1123, Alisae wrote:Reg, are you suuuuuuuure that AH wasn't attempting to push another traitor? I don't remember TB having any attention on him at that point.
In post 1134, Alisae wrote:
In [url=/forum/viewtopic.php?p=8723259#p8723259]post 1124[/url], Regfan wrote:
In post 1123, Alisae wrote:Reg, are you suuuuuuuure that AH wasn't attempting to push another traitor? I don't remember TB having any attention on him at that point.
I can guarantee you he wasn't trying to push another traitor. I think it's very unlikely he was trying to push another mafia partner, the only way that traitor can die inside this setup is via lynch effectively given their BP vest and the lack of doctor meaning that mafia are never going to night kill them.
The only way that AH makes that play is if he is confident that TB won't get lynched on the back of it and if he thinks he himself will get lynched before TB to make TB look good
. I don't think he'd be replacing into the game and instantly planning what would be optimal in his own demise and deciding to take the risk having a potentially rolled killing mafia die just to have that occur. If you notice even after the point where he stated "I wasn't trying to get you lynched" (Which was a week after trying to get him lynched) he continued voting and trying to lynch TB constantly decrediting all of TBs reads and play. It's much more likely here that TB is just town.
Sorry about the typo, meant scum instead of traitor. mybad.
The bolded is as I feel like that's exactly what happened.
In post 1137, Alisae wrote:So what?
The way I see it, AH was telling the truth.
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Post Post #1979 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:29 pm

Post by Realeo »

In fact, Alisae has been pushing ThinkBig.

ThinkBig has been calling every push on him shade throwing. ThinkBig shouldn't null town him. ThinkBig should have scumread Alisae even further.
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Post Post #1980 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:29 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1849, Dunnstral wrote:Superhans is looking bad backing off from desperado but trying to get others onto him or tb
This and him not considering davesaz is what irks me - looked like if the scum team was, say, him and dave he was setting up lynches. Plus the dumbtell stuff I was considering, though he was never in my mind as a vote option today; nobody else could really explain why they were scumreading him

And desperado is tunneling someone I believe to be town and also won't reconsider his reads and won't give reads on the rest of living players - also there's just something off in general about him... I think he could rather easily be scum (as in, that's an easy read for me to make)
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Post Post #1981 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:31 pm

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In post 1980, Dunnstral wrote:him not considering davesaz is what irks me
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Post Post #1982 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:32 pm

Post by Realeo »

I was going to say good point.
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

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Post Post #1983 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:32 pm

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@Realeo - I'm pretty positive I have the chronology correct (I mentioned the posts you're quoting in my narration of it) and if you look at it in the manner of; He had a town read on Alisea, he found a singular action of theirs scummy and had a knee-jerk reaction of calling them scum for it and then ended up just moving them down the town list in the reads list he had updated I think it's a fairly natural progression to have. Overall I don't think there's a smoking gun there like you do.

I'd rather we discuss other players if you've got a few minutes given I'll be doing a big reread through over ThingBig myself and we can discuss him then. I like some of your reasoning behind your SuperHans town read, I've similarly liked how he's handling Desperado today very much; what's your thoughts about him not knowing that Gamma had died (Or at least having forgot as much), I personally think it increases the odds of him being town here and would be interested in whether you agree with that or not. I know you don't have Desperado & Dave solved but what's your current read or stance on them? What do you make of Daves interaction and comments to Dunnstral and what do you make of Desperados exaggeration of his Kop town read?
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Post Post #1984 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:36 pm

Post by Regfan »

@Dunnstral - The point about Supers read on Dave is a solid one and I'd like for him to explain his read there too. I think Desperados tunnel on ThingBig makes some sense as both alignments; As town wanting to go back to his original scum read upon a town flip or as scum wanting to find an easy avenue to push that doesn't create new enemies. It's his attitude while doing such and his comments (and lack thereof) about other players while doing it which I find highly concerning so I agree with you there.
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Post Post #1985 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:37 pm

Post by nydushermain »

Sorry am I being scumread?
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Post Post #1986 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:40 pm

Post by Regfan »

In post 1985, nydushermain wrote:Sorry am I being scumread?
Get wrecked noob.
I'm pretty certain you're town, Realeo has some hesitation with that read though I'm willing to talk it out if needed. Have you made any progression in regards to narrowing down potential scum teams rolling under the impression that your town circle is correct?
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Post Post #1987 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:42 pm

Post by nydushermain »

In post 1986, Regfan wrote:
In post 1985, nydushermain wrote:Sorry am I being scumread?
Get wrecked noob.
I'm pretty certain you're town, Realeo has some hesitation with that read though I'm willing to talk it out if needed. Have you made any progression in regards to narrowing down potential scum teams rolling under the impression that your town circle is correct?
Nothing more than what I've already posted.
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Post Post #1988 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:49 pm

Post by Realeo »

The full chronology is this

Town lean
-> knee jerk reaction ->
Scum lean
-> ? -> Town null -> replacement -> Absolute null

correct?

I understand
Town lean
-> knee jerk reaction ->
Scum lean


I don't understand the
Scum lean
-> ? -> Town null. What is this '?'.
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Post Post #1989 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:50 pm

Post by Realeo »

I have been promising from D2 that understanding '?' would help me be convinced why he's town.

But he refused to answer..
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Post Post #1990 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:54 pm

Post by Realeo »

During this '?', I make this super-towny-analysis-at-AH and the conclusion is Alisae is town and Alisae + Realeo becomes a town block. I hyphothize that TB is appeasing us by putting Alisae null town.

But the problem is Alisae has been tunneling. Since when, according to TB's definition, tunnel is pro-town? Every tunnel is disregarded as shade throwing. That's what he did at me. What he did at Desperado. Why not at Alisae? If it's shade throwing, why null town instead of scum lean?
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Post Post #1991 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:55 pm

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And TB only starts to refuse answering my question the moment Alisae replaces out...because I lost my ally so I no longer a threat.
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Post Post #1992 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:57 pm

Post by nydushermain »

Uhhh, if alisae was scummy, can we just ignore that he was ever in my slot? I agree that it's shocking that alisae, as town, didn't suicide by the end of day 1 but read my play instead realeo xD.
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Post Post #1993 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:57 pm

Post by nydushermain »

Oh I also forgot, AH was buddying up with someone and I forget who it was... I'll go back and find it. I might've already posted it but I think it's probably of note to bring it up again.
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Post Post #1994 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:58 pm

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In post 1992, nydushermain wrote:Uhhh, if alisae was scummy, can we just ignore that he was ever in my slot? I agree that it's shocking that alisae, as town, didn't suicide by the end of day 1 but read my play instead realeo xD.
It's not Alisae that's scummy.

It's you.

Alisae is my town ally.
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Post Post #1995 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:58 pm

Post by nydushermain »

In post 389, Desperado wrote:@Dunnstral that's incredibly lazy scumhunting. You haven't even discussed the composition/progression of the wagon or why the four people who are voting Antihuman are doing so being you thinking Antihuman is towny.

Why are you convinced there's scum on a four man wagon on a town lean?
In post 390, Antihuman wrote:^this is a good observation. I'm not exactly sure what's the basis for Dunn's townread on me, apart from the fact he does townread me.
Weird ass interaction.
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Post Post #1996 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:58 pm

Post by nydushermain »

In post 1994, Realeo wrote:
In post 1992, nydushermain wrote:Uhhh, if alisae was scummy, can we just ignore that he was ever in my slot? I agree that it's shocking that alisae, as town, didn't suicide by the end of day 1 but read my play instead realeo xD.
It's not Alisae that's scummy.

It's you.

Alisae is my town ally.
Oh. Can you pretend I never replaced and read ali then xD
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Post Post #1997 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:59 pm

Post by Realeo »

Anti human also townread daveaz.
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Post Post #1998 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:59 pm

Post by Regfan »

@Realeo - I don't think we're going to see eye to eye on this TB read progression, I will admit that him not elaborating on it or answering properly himself isn't great and certainly an indication of him being scum but that's about all I can agree with. I find the act of having a strong town read on someone, reacting to a certain action of theirs as "They're scum!" then taking some time and deciding that your town read on them just weakens/they move to null is something that makes some sense.

And like I said before; I'll be re-evaluating TB myself, us focusing solely on him in our conversation certainly isn't helping me and I fear it may be frustrating you. I'd much rather hear your thoughts and opinions on everyone else in the room and all other events than this for the time being.
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Post Post #1999 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:59 pm

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Anti human also didn't rebuttal Alisae argument of Despeado is scum. Which is the entire core reason why I townread {GE,Alisae,Desperado}
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