OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #1950 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 6:38 am

Post by nydushermain »

Side note: I might not read superhans' ISO and might just look at little snippets from people quoting him because and ISO of 350+ posts is like... wtf until I have more free time
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Post Post #1951 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:02 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1934, Superhans wrote:
In post 1926, davesaz wrote:
In post 1896, Superhans wrote:
In post 1889, davesaz wrote: [...]
I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt instead of power lynching you. I suggest you use that opportunity to up your game.
Lol I can see scum motivation in this post. Threatening Dunnstral for making a case on you. Id like to see you to go ahead and tell me
how
you'd power lynch Dunnstral.
No case can be made, because there is no possible scum motivation in anything I've posted.
Then why did you you say you'd give Dunnstral the benefit of the doubt instead of power lynching when there was no way to lynch Dunnstral anyway?
Sometimes the only way to make someone see the truth is to slap them with a virtual fish.
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Post Post #1952 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:18 am

Post by Superhans »

Davesaz who'dya think is scum?
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Post Post #1953 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:05 am

Post by Desperado »

In post 1910, Superhans wrote:So yeah, outside of me and Gb, who could be scum?
I don't entertain hypotheticals like that. There are two scum left, I don't need 3 scum reads
;)
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Post Post #1954 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:07 am

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1937, nydushermain wrote:Oh, I'd like to note I had realeo as town before the check so either way, I think he's good. I'm gonna keep him in the town circle for now but the fact that he's not cleared makes the game a tad bit more difficult. I thought I only had to find 2, in which case I could probably be pretty confident but having to find 3 might be a bit odd... that probably sounds a bit contradictory since I'm saying I had realeo as town anyways but I have a tendency to be wrong somewhere in my town circle when the number of unconfirmed in it become large. I can usually pick a small amount of pretty much guaranteed town and it ends up being right in most games I play.

Regfan, thoughts on realeo outside of the checks?

Also, I still think that TB is most likely town due to the day 1. If dave is indeed town, I have to decide whether or not the rest of the three have genuinely gone on eachother (which I haven't been paying much attention to). What I'm going to be doing is, instead of finding reasons as to why my town circle is correct (which I hope it is because that means I'm a boss), I'm going to change my strategy a little bit and ASSUME my town circle is correct. By doing so, I'll be looking within the 3 players left of desperado, superhans, and dunnstral. Within this, I'm going to set up the 3 worlds of:

Superhans + Desperado
Superhans + Dunnstral
Desperado + Dunnstral

as scum teams and see if I can eliminate any of the worlds. If I believe, with sufficient evidence, that the worlds can not exist, I'll stop pushing that my town circle is correct and then see where the scum can lie inside my town circle.

If people agree with my town circle for now (and by people I mean the people inside my town circle), I suggest you do the same because with 2 entire days of interactions, I think that there's more than likely sufficient associative reads to be had.
Serious? davesaz is confirmed town because???

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Post Post #1955 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:11 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1952, Superhans wrote:Davesaz who'dya think is scum?
I tend toward ThinkBig, but I'm worried about it being too easy.
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Post Post #1956 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:12 am

Post by Desperado »

Too easy? It's fucking d3 and hes been protected by the IC since reg replaced in. What is easy about that???
;)
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Post Post #1957 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:15 am

Post by davesaz »

I mean easy in the sense of obvious, not in the sense of no resistance.
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Post Post #1958 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:31 am

Post by Superhans »

In post 1953, Desperado wrote:
In post 1910, Superhans wrote:So yeah, outside of me and Gb, who could be scum?
I don't entertain hypotheticals like that. There are two scum left, I don't need 3 scum reads
if i could undeniably prove that i were town, who would your 3rd scum read be?
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Post Post #1959 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:48 am

Post by Desperado »

zzz

The only way you could do that is with a mod post after you're dead, so if that happens you can read who my 3rd scum would be from the dead thread.
;)
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Post Post #1960 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:49 am

Post by Desperado »

Contrary to ThinkBig's broken record, I don't just sling random shit at people and hope something sticks.
;)
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Post Post #1961 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:52 am

Post by nydushermain »

In post 1954, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1937, nydushermain wrote:Oh, I'd like to note I had realeo as town before the check so either way, I think he's good. I'm gonna keep him in the town circle for now but the fact that he's not cleared makes the game a tad bit more difficult. I thought I only had to find 2, in which case I could probably be pretty confident but having to find 3 might be a bit odd... that probably sounds a bit contradictory since I'm saying I had realeo as town anyways but I have a tendency to be wrong somewhere in my town circle when the number of unconfirmed in it become large. I can usually pick a small amount of pretty much guaranteed town and it ends up being right in most games I play.

Regfan, thoughts on realeo outside of the checks?

Also, I still think that TB is most likely town due to the day 1. If dave is indeed town, I have to decide whether or not the rest of the three have genuinely gone on eachother (which I haven't been paying much attention to). What I'm going to be doing is, instead of finding reasons as to why my town circle is correct (which I hope it is because that means I'm a boss), I'm going to change my strategy a little bit and ASSUME my town circle is correct. By doing so, I'll be looking within the 3 players left of desperado, superhans, and dunnstral. Within this, I'm going to set up the 3 worlds of:

Superhans + Desperado
Superhans + Dunnstral
Desperado + Dunnstral

as scum teams and see if I can eliminate any of the worlds. If I believe, with sufficient evidence, that the worlds can not exist, I'll stop pushing that my town circle is correct and then see where the scum can lie inside my town circle.

If people agree with my town circle for now (and by people I mean the people inside my town circle), I suggest you do the same because with 2 entire days of interactions, I think that there's more than likely sufficient associative reads to be had.
Serious? davesaz is confirmed town because???

Here's my last game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=66795
He's not. I might have been quite unclear and I admit to that.

The way I'm going to play this game for the next couple of days (until/if regfan comes guns blazing and tells me I'm being stupid) is as follows:

1) set up a town circle of 5 including myself
-this was set up as me, dave, reg, real, and tb
2) assume that the town circle is 100% correct (despite uncertainty)
3) check the remaining pool of scum to see if there is a possibility that there is an existing team of 2
4) if there's a high unlikelihood of there being a team of 2 in the remaining pool of scum, check the town pool

tl;dr answer: In no way is dave confirmed town for me but my analysis will be done under the assumption that he is and if the remaining people who I think are scum can't really be on a team with eachother, I slash my town circle and start looking into it for scum
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Post Post #1962 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 12:53 pm

Post by Regfan »

So mafia in this game try to seem town, that means whenever someone seems really town they're probably just mafia. So lets kill the witch!

Vote; Nydus
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Post Post #1963 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:01 pm

Post by Regfan »

Unvote
-- That's the trollpost out of the way to even it up for him voting me yesterday.

In all seriousness the two town reads of mine that I don't ever see changing at this point is Realeo and Nydus. I'm putting TB in the reconsider section for now.

The check on Realeo alone increases the odds of him being town in comparision to all other players but before the check even came out he was my strongest town read and have found his play throughout the entirety of the game to be him genuinely attempting to scumhunt, poke and prod players to find alignment indicative tells. If he's mafia he's duped me to the point where he flat out deserves the win. If anyone has any doubts about him being town they should bring them up now.

I had a strong town read on Aliseas play (I think she genuinely thought Desperado was traitor and was trying to push him in a manner that scum wouldn't do so) and Nydus's replace in has only strengthened that read -- upon replacing in I think he genuinely believed there
had
to be a scum inside the PR's in that they were hard CC's (This is noticeable if you look at his exchange with me then) so the fact that neither flipped mafia is a huge point towards him being town. I similarly have liked the way he's handling today in terms of trying to find a town pool & a scum team that make sense, it matches what I know to be how he handles games as town. I'd be completely and utterly shocked if he's able to fabricate this while having near no experience as mafia in a forum mafia environment. If needed I can go back and link some posts to demonstrate exactly what I'm referring to about my town read on the slot so if anyone has any doubts let me know here too.

That means today I will effectively be trying to solidify my reads and thoughts on the remaining 5 players.
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Post Post #1964 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:21 pm

Post by Realeo »

In post 1963, Regfan wrote:I'm putting TB in the reconsider section for now.
In post 1948, nydushermain wrote:won't progress to [2]
Thank you.
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Post Post #1965 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:27 pm

Post by Regfan »

@Desperado - I'd like you to sell me on ThingBig being mafia in the best way you can. The logic you presented yesterday still doesn't do anywhere near enough for me alone and I actually find your comments re; your stance on Kop very disingenuous today, you're massively over-exaggerating it.

@Realeo - What 'gambit' were you referring to inside ? Also just a heads up but Alisea isn't in TB's green in , he's in black (null). Also please don't do quote spamming like that again. I think your point about TB ISO'ing in two minutes in and is a good one and one that points more towards him being mafia than anything else, his avoidance in responding to this for so long is similarly bad. What's your reads outside of TB atm though?

@ThingBig - If you're confident there's a scum and only one between Desperado & SuperHans and you have different degrees of town reads on most other players wouldn't it make more sense for you to a) Look at interactions to see who they'd both work with and b) Look at Dave more? You're doing neither at the moment.

I'm less inclined to believe that SH would intentionally dumbtell like he did in and as mafia given that it was a large part of the reason we lynched Kop yesterday, makes the entire action from him actually more likely to come from town (That or scum that didn't remember their own night kill which is slightly less plausible). I also liked his posts directed at Dave in and and have liked a fair bit of his activity and direction throughout this day phase.

I like , and from Dave. Somewhat struggle to see scum make and think it's unlikely scum make the threat that Dave made inside directed at Dunn. None of them alone are huge town tells but the combination of all of them as well as Daves play and reaction when I replaced in yesterday make me lean town on him -- will be going through his ISO again in the next 48 hours but certainly not inclined to lynch him today at the moment.

Note to self; Desperados really doesn't come across well. Seen scum make that post very often and reads as unnatural overconfidence.
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Post Post #1966 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:55 pm

Post by Realeo »

@
Regfan

1. No. There is two d2 readlist. The first one, TB puts Alisae at green. The null one is the second readlist.

2. I thought regadless of Kop's flip, there is a high chance of Gamma being Nk, so a retarded attempt to claim vig and get Nked instead.

Obviously, no Oscar.
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Post Post #1967 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:58 pm

Post by Realeo »

Outside TB? I'm second guessing ndus and Dunnstral.
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Post Post #1968 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:04 pm

Post by Regfan »

In post 1966, Realeo wrote:1. No. There is two d2 readlist. The first one, TB puts Alisae at green. The null one is the second readlist.
Can you quote the other one for me? I can only find him having the slot as town D1, not D2. I think you may be remembering the facts incorrectly here.
In post 1967, Realeo wrote:Outside TB? I'm second guessing ndus and Dunnstral.
I'm pretty confident Nydus is town here, this is coming from someone that knows him outside of the game here. As mafia I don't think Nydus is capable of faking a post like as genuinely as did he so quickly (Compare timestamps between his posts) when as mafia he'd have to know everything he's stating in the post is completely incorrect mechanically and found his reaction upon finding out in fairly town. I can provide more on Nydus being town if needed, don't mind you looking into Dunn though. What's your read on SuperHans, Desperado & Dave at the moment? I really want to solve that trio as soon as possible.
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Post Post #1969 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:08 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

I think we're severely misreading dave here. I think he's mafia, I don't see anything he's said as genuine but everyone else is saying they do and nobody wants to lynch him. I think if dave were town mafia would be jumping onto him as well so me being really the only one wanting this just makes me think he's more likely scum.
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Post Post #1970 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:08 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1965, Regfan wrote:I'm less inclined to believe that SH would intentionally dumbtell like he did in Post 1710 and Post 1715 as mafia
I kind of had the same feeling about that
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Post Post #1971 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:12 pm

Post by Realeo »

In post 1288, ThinkBig wrote:@Real
In post 1143, ThinkBig wrote:Before I head off for shabbos, here are my reads:

Regfan

Gamma Emerald

Realeo

Alsae

Dunnestral

Superhans
Kop
Desperado

Davesaz



Spoiler: Key

Conftown

Town

LeanTown

NullTown

Null - {N}
NullScum

LeanScum

Scum

ConfScum


I'll give a full explanation of my reads after shabbos. For now, I believe Gamma's claim and should there be a counterclaim, get a results to night and CC tomorrow. Gamma's result of not a goon on real makes it far more likely that he is town than scum. Gamma/Real=Not a team. Claiming an innocent result on a scum buddy would be far too risky.

I want to go back through dave and desperado's ISO. Their push on me seems opportunistic. I also don't like the way that Desperado has been throwing shades.

Have a good shabbos/weekend everyone!
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Post Post #1972 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:17 pm

Post by Regfan »

@Realeo - Here's the entirety of ThingBigs reads list that I can find, where he has Alisea listed as town, , still has Alisea listed as town, inside he finds recent posts of her scummy on D2 and votes her and mentions the same in . Then in he has her listed as null (maybe null town) in the reads list which he maintains in until he states that he town reads the slot due to Nydus's posts and moves them to town in . Don't find the progression
that
bad overall, think your point about him pretending to read Hans ISO is much stronger. The post you just quoted isn't a new reads list, it's a copy of #1143.

@Dunn - I'll be looking into Dave in more detail soon, what exactly is your headspace on Desperado & Super at the moment? I know you've had both as scum for different sections of today but moreso looking for reasoning behind why you have them both as scum individually.
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Post Post #1973 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:18 pm

Post by Realeo »

In post 1968, Regfan wrote:What's your read on SuperHans, Desperado & Dave at the moment?
I actually townread Superhans.

I townread him because ThinkBig jumped on him


I townread him that even though he acknowledge TB is bad, he still try to solve Desperado~which I think is consistently town. It seems like a town with a consistent priority-o-meter. Think about this. If I tunnel TB, it would take a massive case for me to jump out of the tunnel. Given the size of my case, it's not really huge enough to jump out of Desperado. Once it's resolved that he doesn't see anything wrong about 'Elevator Pitch', I see him as "Ah, the town who didn't make things clear" instead of "Ah, the scum who tries to find alibi to white knight his partner.

I haven't solve Desperado and daveaz.
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Post Post #1974 (ISO) » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:22 pm

Post by Realeo »

In post 1972, Regfan wrote:@Realeo - Here's the entirety of ThingBigs reads list that I can find, D1 #502 where he has Alisea listed as town, D1 #570, still has Alisea listed as town, inside Post 999 he finds recent posts of her scummy on D2 and votes her and mentions the same in Post 1039. Then in D2 #1143 he has her listed as null (maybe null town) in the reads list which he maintains in D2 #1466 until he states that he town reads the slot due to Nydus's posts and moves them to town in D2 #1621. Don't find the progression that bad overall, think your point about him pretending to read Hans ISO is much stronger. The post you just quoted isn't a new reads list, it's a copy of #1143.

You get the chronology wrong
In post 1039, ThinkBig wrote:Final thoughts for now: I think you'll find the last remaining scum between desperado, realeo, and alisae.
In post 1143, ThinkBig wrote:Before I head off for shabbos, here are my reads:

Regfan

Gamma Emerald

Realeo

Alsae

Dunnestral

Superhans
Kop
Desperado

Davesaz



Spoiler: Key

Conftown

Town

LeanTown

NullTown

Null - {N}
NullScum

LeanScum

Scum

ConfScum


I'll give a full explanation of my reads after shabbos. For now, I believe Gamma's claim and should there be a counterclaim, get a results to night and CC tomorrow. Gamma's result of not a goon on real makes it far more likely that he is town than scum. Gamma/Real=Not a team. Claiming an innocent result on a scum buddy would be far too risky.

I want to go back through dave and desperado's ISO. Their push on me seems opportunistic. I also don't like the way that Desperado has been throwing shades.

Have a good shabbos/weekend everyone!
Then his 2nd readlist put Alisae at null.
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