Mini Normal 1854: Game Over

[hapahauli]

Hello world. I'll be taking the next few hours to catch up in the thread. Feel free to ask me any questions.

[hapahauli]

Hello world. I'll be taking the next few hours to catch up in the thread. Feel free to ask me any questions.

Is the sky really blue
do you like the color magenta
Is pineapple as bad as people tell me
why do we have bees in the world?

Hi :3

I'm sure there's a physics explanation for why the sky isn't blue, but it doesn't change how pretty it is.
Ew no.
I love me some pineapple.
It's nature's way of reminding you that important things can still be annoying and painful.

hapahauli replaces Joshz

yeah now I definitely want this lynched

Yeah? Well fuck you too.

What gives?

[hapahauli]

unannounced replacement request out of the blue without any sort of reasoning is a huge red flag. It isn't necessarily alignment indicative but

since I was already scum reading him, it doesn't help his situation

.

You might want to take a step back here. You sound like you'd read any action that the person in this slot would do as "scummy."

Regardless, I didn't expect to replace into an easy situation. I am town, and I will prove myself town over this cycle. I don't play on this site very often (I think I've played 1 complete town game). However, I have played a large number of games on another website (teamliquid.net). You can take a look at my past games here (Ctrl + F for "Hapahauli).
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/3 ... a-database

I've been mislynched as town once in over 20 games. If you give me the chance to work, it will be very obvious over the course of this cycle that I'm town.

All I'm asking for is a chance to work.

[hapahauli]

I'm going to take a dive in some filters. A couple of questions for you guys:

@ TwoFace - What do you consider about my predecessors behavior to be so damning? If my slot isn't mafia, who is? Or are you unwilling to even entertain that?

@ Sonia - Who do you think is the last mafia right now? Who do you consider incredibly unlikely to be mafia?

[hapahauli]

All I'm asking for is a chance to work.

unfortunately I can't trust anything you say. With 2 scum flips already it is easy as hell to manipulate posts to your advantage.

the reluctance to vote emp and actually tried to push people on to gamma is such a red flag given how hard he was pushing that slot earlier in the game.

maybe you can convince others but i'm stubborn like that.

What gives you such a strong read on our slots (TwoFace and Myself)?

[hapahauli]

I have something you can entertain TwoFace. I just finished re-reading yesterday's lynch, and I think Sonia comes out of it looking the worst by far.

I'm going start by summarizing the day as I read it. Feel free to correct me if something in these facts is wrong.
1) Uzi (town) starts the wagon right away on EmpKing.
2) The more active town members (Sonia, EmpKing, Josh, TwoFace, Aris) throw around suspicions. Suspicion is split between EmpKing, Gamma, and TwoFace.
3) Aris breaks the deadlock, becoming "tired of the 1v1" between TK and EmpKing. Aris starts to push EmpKing hard.
4) The town gradually begins to consolidate on EmpKing.
5) The only other major suspicion that is pushed is Josh pushing Gamma. Josh seems to double down on this after Aris votes EmpKing.
6) Josh eventually gives up on the wagon, and Hammers Emp.

All good? Good.

What this summary ignores is Sonia. While she was active, she played virtually no role in how the lynch went down yesterday. Mafia want to hide. They have an instinct not to stick out. To not make commitments. And to avoid making contributions while it seems like they are active and helping.

This is Sonia's play to a T yesterday!

.

Can't say I expected that
I rather Gamma get lynched over EMP but I really don't have a pref cause I don't both are scum.

This is Sonia's reads as of the beginning of the D4 cycle. Note that she is suspicious of Gamma and EMP. She thinks both of mafia but conveniently would like to get Gamma lynched over the person who flipped mafia yesterday. Note that while she is suspicious of both players, her post is devoid of actual analysis. This pattern continues throughout the rest of the cycle.

Interesting stance.

I think I really need to re read twoface because he's the only one I'm like "Well you can go either way" for me atm my other reads feel pretty solid

This is her next important post (note, that while there are three posts between these two, they are not important. She asks a 1 lined question about EMP/Gamma, and then has two innocuous posts correcting typos). In addition to Emp/Gamma, she throws suspicion on TwoFace. There is no analysis here, just finger-pointing.

Waiting for something to happen before I vote.
hopefully it happens before I leave and if it doesn't I'll just vote

The want to hammer before my V/LA is quite tempting but I think it'd be nice to comeback refreshed so I'ma head off cya all laters!

Next posts. Same pattern. She's stating that she is active. Still not voting... still not doing anything productive...

D4 finishes without Sonia having placed a vote, despite her activity!

She's active, present, and constantly reminding the thread that she is around, but never posts any analysis, and spends the entire day waffling between EMP/Gamma (conveniently preferring a Gamma lynch).

This is consistent with mafia trying to hedge their bets - wanting to cover her tracks by saying that she is suspicious of EMP, all while avoiding making any pro-town contributions and avoiding making any move to lynch mafia (EMP).

And the final coup-de-grace - her post from the beginning of this cycle:

Emp flipped

scum yay great that was expected!

I'd lynch Aris/Gamma
Aris sudden aggro stance near the end of the day towards me felt really out of place I'd like to hear more on that
Gamma wanting twoface is because he know's he's in a really bad spot and will need to try and get as much wiggle room as he can
Twoface you and Josh are town thank you take another look at the newbie slot and actions and you should be able to see it for yourself

She claims that this result was expected! All during her super waffly uncommitted play yesterday. If this was so expected,

why didn't she vote yesterday?

[hapahauli]

TwoFace, I think that should establish that Sonia's worth looking at, even if you are still suspicious of my slot. However, I would like you to consider her last post:

I'm going to take a dive in some filters. A couple of questions for you guys:

@ TwoFace - What do you consider about my predecessors behavior to be so damning? If my slot isn't mafia, who is? Or are you unwilling to even entertain that?

@ Sonia - Who do you think is the last mafia right now? Who do you consider incredibly unlikely to be mafia?

Gamma/Aris hold last mafia to me and

I think you and twoface are town

Why is Sonia so sure that my slot is town?

I just read D4. I understand I had an initially hostile reaction to you TwoFace. But after reading D4, I'm sympathetic. Josh's behavior looks incredibly suspicious from yesterday. The guy waffles between Gamma and EMP all day, pushes Gamma hard, then switches at the very last minute to hammer EMP. That looks terrible, combined with him pushing EMP very hard earlier in the game.

Despite this, Sonia seems to have no doubt that I'm town.

And she has never justified this read!

A Ctrl+F for "Josh" in her filter reveals the following posts...

ah screw it it's all the active lurking comments
I dislike how you called joshz scum for his lurking when I was doing the EXACT same thing

Emp flipped scum yay great that was expected!

I'd lynch Aris/Gamma
Aris sudden aggro stance near the end of the day towards me felt really out of place I'd like to hear more on that
Gamma wanting twoface is because he know's he's in a really bad spot and will need to try and get as much wiggle room as he can

Twoface you and Josh are town

thank you take another look at the newbie slot and actions and you should be able to see it for yourself

That's it! No justifications, no nothing.

Town players are paranoid. They are in the dark. They do not know alignments. Sonia is acting the complete opposite of this. She's not naturally suspicious of what she should be, and doesn't seem like she's actively reading the thread or pushing anything. The only thing she seems to be really interested in over the last two cycles is softly and quietly pushing Gamma (whom seems very lynchbaity) to the gallows.

The simple explanation is that she mafia, and she knows that this slot is town.

[hapahauli]

The only parts of this game I've read seriously so far are D4 (and some D3 for context). I did skim the thread to see if I was missing something critical about Sonia's slot (i.e. she's a confirmed town or something), but that doesn't seem to be the case.

If I'm missing any critical information about Sonia that negates the above, please let me know. However I'm

extremely

convinced that she is mafia based on her D4 play. It fits mafia objectives perfectly.

As for the rest of the players...
Ari had a huge hand in lynching EMP yesterday. He was one of the first players to make a hard commitment to lynch EMP and decisively swung the town down a successful scum lynch.
TwoFace was pushed hard by EMP for some extremely suspect reasons. While it's plausible that a double-bus play could have happened, I find it extremely unlikely due to a) the animosity between the two and b) the type of case (non-allignment indicative tells) that EMP was pushing.
I don't know about Gamma, and I'll have to read him a bit today. However, it is very difficult to believe he is mafia based on Sonia's behavior.
My slot is town. I can't really say anything else about it.

[hapahauli]

Now... If you have to lynch my slot because Josh's play is so bad, I understand. I am willing to go down if Sonia is lynched with fire next cycle.

Her D4 play is

THAT

egregious.

[hapahauli]

VOTE: xSoniaNevermindx

[hapahauli]

I'm catching up a bit on Gamma's filter, and I feel good about him being town. His filter seems very confrontational, he is direct and to the point, and he seemed very consistently suspicious of EMP throughout the game. He is not afraid to call people stupid or dumb, and is generally interested in pushing his own mafia reads. On behavior, everything looks good. On voting, nothing looks suspicious.

On to Aris.

[hapahauli]

Aris looks good. Real good.

Honestly, I'm with TF here and Emp pushing this shitty reasoning so hard is making me scumread him significantly.

I've had enough of this 1v1.
VOTE: Emp

In the initial debate over who to lynch last cycle, Aris is involved in the town discussion. He initially believes Emp could be town (Quote 1), but then suddenly turns on Emp to call him mafia (Quote 2). This reads very genuine to me, and discounts a mafia bussing attempt quite heavily. It doesn't make a lot of sense for a potential mafia Ari to give himself a valid excuse not to vote Emp, and then basically push him to the grave with a vote that swings the momentum in favor of the Emp lynch heavily.

Also...
post 2376, xSoniaNevermindx"]The want to hammer before my V/LA is quite tempting but I think it'd be nice to comeback refreshed so I'ma head off cya all laters![/quote]Don't wanna hammer your scumbuddy for cred? Ballsy.[/quote]

i leik

[hapahauli]

I guess were getting srs now hm Okay give me a moment
...this is gonna be fun

Mafia is a game we love to hate and hate to love.

[hapahauli]

All I'm asking for is a chance to work.

unfortunately I can't trust anything you say. With 2 scum flips already it is easy as hell to manipulate posts to your advantage.

the reluctance to vote emp and actually tried to push people on to gamma is such a red flag given how hard he was pushing that slot earlier in the game.

maybe you can convince others but i'm stubborn like that.

0/2? I'm confused.

Anyway, I know you're going to disagree with my case whatever your alignment is. What do you make about my analysis on Ari and Gamma?

[hapahauli]

Uh. I'm not sure why that post quoted above. I meant that to be @ Sonia of course.

[hapahauli]

Hopefully we can have a conversation and make things less boring. Yay excitement! I want to look through some of your past games before I comment on "Part 1."

A few questions on Part 2 though:

You're right on the fact josh isn't someone I talk about a lot but I do talk about his slot before the newbie and that's the whole bases of a lot of my townread I mostly ignore a lot of people I tr because I like to focus on my scumreads and try to understand why they are sus of the person they are so if I can see if the read is gen or made up it's how I am

1) Cut can you please explain the basis of your read on Josh?
2) If you have critical information that makes my slot town, why not tell everyone? I'm sure TwoFace would appreciate that information. How can you be alright with him tunneling my slot this late into the game, knowing what you know?
3) You say you "focus on your scumreads", but you weren't providing any analysis on your scumreads either. That leads me to believe that "focusing on your scumreads" is misleading and false.

I am not scared could I be wrong? Yes but what is paranoia going to do? Nothing what so ever

I much rather lead with confidence in my actions then be a scared little girl I am going to come at you with all I got and if you can't take it you'll crack and get lynched

so yes thank you for noting I am not scared

4) If the bolded was true, I would not be calling you mafia. However, your in d4 is anything but "leading with confidence." How would you describe your play on D4 then?

[hapahauli]

The post you tried to quote on Aris is quite awful because the tone switch sounds overly cocky like they know they have some sort of advantage
who did Aris lynch that day?
Emp and that gives you towncred aka an advantage the tone switch and acting was quite sudden and out of no where

Oops, missed some of your posts.

A "Tone Read" doesn't really tell me much. What is the basis of this tone read?

The post you tried to quote on Aris is quite awful because the tone switch sounds overly cocky like they know they have some sort of advantage
who did Aris lynch that day?
Emp and that gives you towncred aka an advantage the tone switch and acting was quite sudden and out of no where

Also, I just don't understand this post at all.

I'll be quiet now and let you answer what you need to. I need to look at some of your game history. Of course, I still have plenty of more questions.

[hapahauli]

Excellent.

The post you tried to quote on Aris is quite awful because the tone switch sounds overly cocky like they know they have some sort of advantage
who did Aris lynch that day?
Emp and that gives you towncred aka an advantage the tone switch and acting was quite sudden and out of no where

I still cannot understand this bit on Aris. Can you explain it?

...EMP's attack on Josh was really random and didn't seem like partner interacion...

This as well. Can you elaborate?

4)Of course I expected it I said both Gamma/EMP were scum and I wanted both lynched I wanted gamma first but I would've voted EMP aswell so yes I did expect him to flip scum now I want Gamma lynched even if Aris sudden flip has me ringing bells

Lastly, why do you think Gamma is mafia? Why is he more suspicious than Aris? You don't have to do some crazy try-hard ISO, just tell me the reasons.

[hapahauli]

Thanks Sonia, I'll be back in a bit.

[hapahauli]

Just got back. That should be all the questions for now. I'd like to hear what other people have to say before I continue on. I did look through some of your past games, but they seem pretty inconclusive either way. Low sample size.

[hapahauli]

I am Josh. Josh is me. We are all Josh.

[hapahauli]

@ Aris and Gamma

Please don't hammer right away. Let's take our time and make sure we get this lynch right.

@ Sonia

Between Gamma and Ari, who do you think is more likely to flip mafia? I've heard your suspicions of both players, but not which read you thought was stronger.

[hapahauli]

I'm town.

Why are you not considering Gamma today?

[hapahauli]

On a lunch break. Read the thread in full last night and slept on it. Here's where I am in this game right now:

TwoFace is almost certainly town.

• The vote-counts on D1 and D4 make TwoFace look incredibly good. He had a major role to play in catching both mafia.
  
• The interaction between Emp/TwoFace is hostile and very believable as adversarial. Emp was pushing TwoFace for pretty bad reasons.

Aris is almost certainly town.

• He was arguably the major factor in Emp getting lynched D4.
  
• Nachomama8's meta analysis of Aris seems pretty bullet proof:
  • http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p8654605
    
  • Aris has a very large sample of town and mafia games. He is consistently FAR less active and FAR in his mafia games.
    
  • The sample size makes this extremely compelling.
    This would be an extreme deviation in play for scum-Aris.

On balance, I think Gamma is town.

• Some points in favor of "Town-Gamma":
  • He was pushed by Fitz at some point early in the game. The case that Fitz seemed like he was trying to lynch low-hanging town fruit, and not bussing a teammate.
    
  • He seems pretty fearless and straightforward. At every point in his filter, it is always pretty clear who he's reading and where he stands.
    
  • Fitz and Vedith (two mafia) are voting him on D1 with less than 24 hours to go in the day. This is also during the huge vote-swing to Fitz at the end of the cycle.
• Some things in favor of "Mafia-Gamma" include:
  • A pretty sharp activity drop-off in the past few cycles.
    
  • A very strange start to D5, in which he calls my slot townie, suggests lynching TwoFace, and wants to lynch Aris.
    
  • Constantly calling himself "confirmed town" when nothing of the sort confirms him.
• Independent of my analysis on Sonia, I think Gamma's play is more likely town than mafia. I think the points against Gamma are non-allignemnt indicative. Vedith and Fitz pushing Gamma at the end of D1 is very compelling evidence in his favor.

Sonia is the most likely mafia candidate.

• I've said all I need to say in the wall of texts. Her D4 play is very mafia-oriented. Her responses have done nothing to convince me otherwise.
  
• I also think there is a very compelling association case to be made between her and EMP.
  • EMP avoids doing analysis on her at all, like sheeping Nacho's "slight town read" on Sonia. (Link)
    
  • In particular, EMP rails against Josh for "active lurking", but excuses Sonia for doing the exact same thing. (Link)
    
  • Sonia does put EMP at L-1 on D3, but it reads like a very half-hearted push. I would read her ISO from #91 to #106:
    • She very half-heartedly pushes EMP, asking him a lot of easier questions.
      
    • She openly says multiple times that she'd rather be lynching into Gamma/AJ
      
    • She jumps onto Gamma right after that and starts pushing him much harder.
• This association might be individually excusable. However combined with her unnatural strong town read on my slot, as well as her non-committal fence-sitting stance on D4, I think she is the last mafia.

[hapahauli]

There's not much I can do to defend Josh. He looks pretty bad. I could try to look through Josh's filter and defend our slot, but I think that just isn't a credible line of argument.

In my own defense, I'll make three points:
1) Josh's D4 looks bad. However, what else in his filter looks bad? If you look at Josh's whole filter, I think you'll see someone that is town, but made some pretty poor decisions on D4. Bad Play =/= Mafia. Inconsistent Play =/= Mafia.
2) Sonia by contrast, has been consistently suspicious since she replaced in. I would recommend looking at her actions in the lynch on D2, where she waffles about and doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between two townies. On D3, she half-heartedly pushes EMP while looking for any excuse to direct the lynch elsewhere. I've talked about D4 in great detail. As you talked about above, her D5 hasn't been pretty.
3) Compare my contributions today to what Sonia is doing. I'm active, I'm contributing, and I'm doing my best to remain objective. Compare this to Sonia's defense... she is basically saying that being more useful to town is boring, and that she will not change her playstyle.

I'll be around to answer questions. I will put the effort into demonstrating my towni-ness if I am given the opportunity today.

[hapahauli]

still can't get over the weird 180 from josh and the out of the blue replacement (which btw the last time I saw one under this account, I am pretty sure that was scum)

To comment on this quickly...
1) I don't think the replacement is alignment indicative at all. On this site, i have replaced out as both town and mafia before in circumstances like these. Sometimes, life just gets in the way and you don't feel like telling the world about it.
2) On the "weird 180"... it was definitely weird and bad, but was it really suspicious? I'd argue that it was weird and bad for

both

maifa-Josh and town-Josh. I know I said earlier I would defend Josh, but eh...

Quotes are in spoilers, commentary above spoilers. This is my understanding of what Josh did yesterday:

1) Josh is suspicious of EMP throughout D3, and only does not vote him because of "Nacho's request" to consolidate on AJ.

Spoiler:

I'm very sure Empking is scum. However, since we are ignoring it for now at nachos request

Unvote and VOTE: aj

2) Josh narrows down the lynch to Gamma/EMP early on D4, and votes Gamma.

Spoiler:

both are individually my biggest scumreads but i /doubt/ theyre both scum together.

if emp flips scum i think gamma or you are partner. if gamma flips scum i think emp or MAYBE (unlikely) twoface are partner. aristo is the oddball; im excluding him on nacho's stance + that there are two significantly better lyncehs rn.

emp is my bigger sr but gamma flip seems more useful and id really rather respect aj and hiraki's wishes and get the lynch off, i imagine theyd be quite annoyed in postgame if they tried getting us to lynch gamma all game, we didnt, and gamma won as scum. the flip side is emp might just go back to tunnelling me and twoface and being all around anti-town and annoying.

overall stance: neutral rn. i think the lynch is in gamma and king forsure though.

I'm likely going to hang

Fixed your post for you

vote gamma

3) When town sentiment swings further against EMP, Josh doubles down on his Gamma push.

Spoiler:

Hammer king

W.E I have surgery in 6 hours IDC

sheep me on gamma you fools

i think empking's play is awful + lynchbait regardless of alignment and

i think there are several dead townies advocating strongly for a gamma lynch and

i think a gamma flip provides more info than empking and

4) Josh gives up and hammers EMPking:

Spoiler:

Hammer king

W.E I have surgery in 6 hours IDC

I understand this doesn't make much sense as town.

However, how does it make sense as mafia?

Hypothetical mafia-Josh is narrowing down the lynch to a townie (Gamma) and his mafia buddy (EMP). Even if he succeeds in his objective of lynching Gamma, it is not like the mafia team wins by lynching Gamma. By contrast, he has already committed himself to lynching EMP the following day, and looking extremely super-duper suspicious after EMP flips red.

As mafia, Josh would be taking a horrific gamble for no reason. It is a coinflip between:
1) Gamma gets lynched. Josh has committed himself to lynching EMP, who's flip will make him look horrible. Josh would have to literally 180 on his EMP read to give mafia a chance to win.
2) EMP gets lynched. Josh looks bad.

How does this plan make any sense as mafia? Josh just makes a stupid play that makes him look suspicious regardless.

When you compare this to Sonia, Sonia is actively trying to play both sides and hide. She avoiding commitments that could give her trouble down the road. Josh is doing the exact opposite, and his play seems borderline suicidal for Mafia here.

[hapahauli]

Furthermore, look at some of the interactions between EMP and Josh. Does that D3 look like mafia on mafia action? EMP comes in, and the first thing he does is rail against his only other scumbuddy?

[hapahauli]

Mafia want to hide, cover their tracks, and avoid attention. Josh's behavior this game has been confrontational, committal, and attention seeking. This makes more sense from the perspective of a townie doing something dumb (i.e. Josh becoming increasingly suspicious of Gamma on D3) as opposed to mafia Josh making some crazy attention-seeking play with a temporary upside and long-term disastrous consequences.

The point of all this, is if something is stupid as both alignments, it is stupid and non-alignment indicative. Not a single person in this thread has made that Josh is mafia for reasons outside of his D4 spazz.

[hapahauli]

Why are you not reading?

[hapahauli]

This sux.

Gamma coming in to V/LA until Tuesday without even having skimmed the last 3 pages is tilting as shit tbh.

Thank god we have a week.

[hapahauli]

It's pretty frustrating when people don't give a shit.

[hapahauli]

How are you drawing that conclusion Aris?

But yes, we should wait for Gamma before ending the day.

[hapahauli]

Eh. Just hammer when you are ready Aris. I think we're all pretty confident about Sonia, and whatever Gamma says will not change that.

[hapahauli]

Not really. I'm just letting boredom get the best of me.

[hapahauli]

Oops. Hello world. Get back from V/LA so we can continue the game peeps.

[hapahauli]

V/LA until tuesday

why are we voting sonia

tuesday

LIES

LIEEEEEEEEEEES

[hapahauli]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvoUvDKh9SA[/youtube]

[hapahauli]

How does embedding not work?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvoUvDKh9SA

[hapahauli]

Excellent.

[hapahauli]

Good game!

Thanks to Dier for hosting (and allowing me to replace in so quickly), as well as TwoFace and Aris for being open minded enough to secure the lynch.

I cannot comment much on the game beyond D3, because that is all I really read in detail (though I was reading the votecounts throughout the game). Sonia and EMP's individual posts were pretty good throughout the game. However, I felt that they were far too transparent with their mafia motivations in the thread. EMP's posting left a very powerful association case to make against Sonia. Sonia's treatment of EMP on D3, as well as her D4 voting were huge red flags in her filter. To some extent, both of you really need to think about what you would do as town before you take certain stances in the thread. A solid mafia performance doesn't need to be perfect, but there needs to be just enough to cover your tracks.

I hope I don't sound overly critical - I just want to point out what I noticed and hope people find it useful.

[hapahauli]

I also felt strategically that Sonia really put herself in a hole reading my slot as town the way she did. I think the best chance at surviving another day was not trying to put all the eggs in the lynch-Gamma basket, but to actively discredit me and hope that TwoFace went along with his tunnel.

[hapahauli]

I also felt strategically that Sonia really put herself in a hole reading my slot as town the way she did. I think the best chance at surviving another day was not trying to put all the eggs in the lynch-Gamma basket, but to actively discredit me and hope that TwoFace went along with his tunnel.

noted that's normally my scum play but I have people with meta on me so I tried to do something dif clearly didn't work out
my 2nd scum loss to date dam

I skimmed through your other mafia game on this account Mini 1823 and came away super impressed by your play. Your ability to get emotional and angry came across as very authentic on my readthrough, and seem to provide great cover and a very credible story as an "angry over-emotional townie."

Which is why...

I'd say Gamma I feel quite strongly on it.
I think a lot of the sr is just an irk for my playstyle and I'm not gonna change that so nothing I can really do on that.
I thought using less rage would make me more approachable and in turn less lynchable guess I was wrong.

...I was surprised to see this.

Experiments are what they are, and there are probably good reasons to be less "ragey" in your town play. But I also feel that this is what was missing from your mafia play this game: some kind of cover to distract town players from calmly considering the objectives you were pushing.