OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)

[nydushermain]

I have not followed ANYTHING in this thread so I'm just going to trust your word on it. I'm VT

VOTE: regfan

[nydushermain]

I've NEVER replaced into a game over 5 pages long... especially something with 60 pages (jesus christ) so I'm going to try my best to catch up but I definitely need some form of TL;DR. I don't particularly trust myself to remember everything because I'm not a note taker. Also, alisae surviving into day 2 as town is shocking. Surprised he didn't self hammer.

[nydushermain]

Rofl. Yeah I know he's inno child. I only replaced into this game because he was in it. Not as fun... I sent the replacement request before I found out he was inno child... would've been way more fun to try to figure out his alignment -_- . Now I'll never get enough traction to lynch him.

[nydushermain]

For future reference, if I claimed cop with a red check on regfan, would I have gotten instalynched?

[nydushermain]

Yeeee, but you know what to look for in forums. I'll be honest, probably not gonna give it a good go tonight aside from a quick skim through.

Is the mafia traitor role of any significance?

[nydushermain]

OH OKAY. So our current situation is this:

there are 2 mafia. According to the setup (now correct me if I'm wrong), the mafia can choose if they want to grant themselves roles which consequently also gives us an equal amount of PRs. Since there are 2 mafia goon (unless traitor can also get a role? actually doesn't matter since he just flipped traitor anyways), there can be up to 2 PRs. Since reg is inno child, we know that at most (meaning both other PR claims could technically still be scum), there's 1 scum inside the claims. Holy fuck, this game is already so easy.

I didn't give a read through of things yet but I'll say that a cop claim as scum is such an odd claim to make. Gives town weird interaction info based on who he claimed his check on if he's scum and there's a large myriad of roles you could've chosen that are so easy and gives you 0 associations like... let's say... ROLEBLOCKER. Just based on the oddities of the claims, I think that the cop is more likely to be the real PR if there is only one scum within the claims. Actually, there's no reason for both scum to claim a PR so I'm just going to play off the assumption that one of them is real. That being said, I should still read through shit.

[nydushermain]

I don't know when the claims happened but you guys said a lot of it was based on fighting between the two? I promise to read through it but I'll also say that gamma, unless he claimed immediately, would also have to retrace his steps as scum and make sure that his check made sense. I think it's just sooooo much easier to claim something that doesn't feign giving him perfect information so another point for him.

[nydushermain]

Oh... so we don't have a guaranteed scum between the two? That's not as fun -_- ...

[nydushermain]

On a serious note, I don't think scum would replace in and vote for an IC like nydush did.

Knowing Nydus he would do it regardless of his alignment, his other posts since replacing in do come across as town and I think he did genuinely believe there

had

to be scum between Gamma/Kop which means he doesn't make sense as scum unless he's one of them anyway and with his push on the roleblocker claim being fake already I'd argue he's probably not with Kop. Pretty much my town read on Aliseas been strengthened via Nydus's posts thus far.

You're townsiding scum.

[nydushermain]

I think that's an interesting thing too @regfan. So you're claiming that scum tend to either take a lot of powers (more than 1?) which would give us 4 PRs (since traitor flip was without a power?) or they take none at all which would give us 2 PRs... one being you. Here's a question about the NK on ssbm: would scum hunt for the LAST PR if they knew there was only 2 with one of them being you? Personally, and I'm not sure how it goes in forum, but I feel like scum would just NK you and just kill the last PR after he/she claims no? I think that there's more validity to both claims being real BECAUSE scum tried to hunt for PRs. Either that or SSBM was so right it was scary.

[nydushermain]

I'm skimming real fast through the thread but I'll admit, I started on day 2. I'll go back to day 1 later but I'm kinda tired.

[nydushermain]

I agree with whoever said that realeo (or whoever gamma nongoon checked) is very likely town, regardless of gamma's alignment. Even if gamma were to end up being goon, that's like, such a dumb thing to do to nongoon check your partner like that this early. ESPECIALLY when so much heat was on him. Plus, reg said that gamma was scum reading whoever he nongoon checked on day 1 so I feel like it's really weird thing for a scum to set up a fake inno claim on his partner from day 1 all the way to day 2. Especially with traitor bro lynched.

[nydushermain]

Yeah probably. I'm not getting too much out of this skim on day 2. I will say though that as I was reading, I saw dave's name somewhere and was like "who the fuck is this?"

[nydushermain]

Guys, I hacked into algebra's account and I checked his role PM!

Hello again, algebra.

Your role is now

Inactive Child

, you are still aligned with Town.

During the day you may

not

post in the game thread and

vote to lynch any living player

. I will confirm you as town publicly at the beginning of the game. You win when all threats to the Town are dead and at least one Town-aligned player is still alive.

Game thread is here.

LOL

[nydushermain]

I agree with whoever said that realeo (or whoever gamma nongoon checked) is very likely town, regardless of gamma's alignment. Even if gamma were to end up being goon, that's like, such a dumb thing to do to nongoon check your partner like that this early. ESPECIALLY when so much heat was on him. Plus, reg said that gamma was scum reading whoever he nongoon checked on day 1 so I feel like it's really weird thing for a scum to set up a fake inno claim on his partner from day 1 all the way to day 2. Especially with traitor bro lynched.

Yeah I went into this earlier but your point reminds me of another reason why Realeo is pretty much always town;

Three and only three worlds exist;
1. Gamma is town, Kop is scum. In this world there's only 2 PR's in the game, Gamma would be cleared as would Releao.
2. Gamma is scum, Kop is town. In this world if Realeo ever got lynched and flipped goon (Which he would have to be if Gamma is scum, only 2 PR's and all) Gamma would also become confirmed scum; not a move scum want.
3. Gamma and Kop are both town. In this world if scum took daytalk Realeo is always town, if they picked something else Realeo still has a very high chance of being town.

Exactly my thoughts. PR claims are fun.

[nydushermain]

Yo, TB. Alisae and Desperado.

Pedit: My pleasure

Alisae is dead. I ate his soul.

[nydushermain]

I would also gamble that if only one power was taken, it would've been recruit traitor. That might make the interactions that AH had WAY MORE interesting. I wouldn't ever take day talk unless I had a traitor with me because a 2 person day talk sounds so useless. In that case, I would recruit AND take day talk but we know that's not possible. To take only one role as scum is just odd as well. Seems kind of pointless because the point of taking a role cop for example would be if you knew there were many roles but if you don't take role cop, there are only 2... etc. I think that if the other 2 PR claims are legit, and I feel like gamma's is, at the very least, credible, it's very likely that AH's interactions, or more specifically, other people's interactions with AH are significant.

[nydushermain]

I umm... finished skimming through day 2... and forget everything that happened... I got lost with who was saying what... Yeah... I'm going to go to bed soon after an episode of Judge Judy and I'll up my reading comprehension tomorrow. It's good to know @reg/dunn that traitor wasn't recruited. That makes me think that there's probably one scum between the two PR claims and it's probably kop.

Keep in mind that these reads are purely based off claims and the setup, they have nothing to do with how players acted during the day. You could make these names anonymous and my reads on this situation would still be the same. I dunno, I feel like if ONE power was claimed, it would always be recruit-a-friend. Can someone convince me otherwise?

[nydushermain]

@Nydus - Personally I think daytalk is underrated as scum and would have probably selected it as well as recruiting the traitor as mafia either that or selected nothing; the rest of the powers don't seem particularly useful to me. I think people look at the setup and roles very differently though but again think the general consensus is people believe lots or none fits for everyone. I very much do think we have a fake claim happening here.

@Desperado - What do you yourself make of the mass-claim results? And why do you think Kops real? This isn't a stance you've shown much inside your ISO; you merely didn't want to lynch a claimed PR earlier.

That's what I'm saying. I don't think daytalk is bad, I think it's actually quite powerful. However, I would NEVER take it with only 2 scum in the chat. That's just... so dumb and it could backfire if one gets lynched because there are you know... 3 PRs resultant from that choice. I think that anyone who takes daytalk would always take the traitor with them. Anyways, that's just my opinion and it could very well be a scum taking a role but I just... I just don't think that's the case.

[nydushermain]

How quickly do I get lynched tomorrow if I hammer kop without going through the whole thread?

[nydushermain]

VOTE: dave
I have no reason for this vote I just wanna be like the cool kids

I feel like scum come right into the game with the mentality of "either defend my partners or bus them lightly so that they look good or I look good in a flip." I think that even though this was an RVS, if dave were one of the scum partners, mariar would've given at least some sort of reason. I think that the idea that she should at least somewhat bus would be in the back of her head and make her make something up. Probably a stupid read and is pretty much page 1 so still reading.

[nydushermain]

Because it's random voting stage and almost every vote there is random I think a few of the questions you asked are blatantly obv questions with obv answers and some seem to have a spin on them I dislike

Mariar's answer to why she voted on dave (in the RVS), and then "seriously" on hans. She doesn't give a real reason for voting on dave other than to say that it was just some RVS vote. I dunno, I really do think she'd have come up with something if dave was a scum partner. Even if it's something small like "I don't like the way he looks"

[nydushermain]

VOTE: Secret Agent Jin

This guys really scummy

Gamma still scummy

U wut m8? Wanna fight about it?

This probably is almost never scum v scum.

[nydushermain]

Question to the veterans:
Do town players substitute out at a greater rate than scum players, or is it usually the same rate?
I'm just curious.

I really like this question from superhans. He was kind of throwing shade on maria the whole day leading up to her request to be replaced. It does fit in line with his train of thought if he's town. I don't think that scum think to ask this question the moment someone asks to be replaced. I think they just get annoyed that their main target disappeared and may be replaced by someone townier.

[nydushermain]

@Desp - Do you think it's more likely that scum would take 1 power over none then? If so which one? And ignoring the number of PR claims what's your individual read on Kops play & claim.

@Nydus - I'd rather you focus on stating what your reads are on specific players posts rather than X/Y aren't scum together due to Z post. We can hunt via interactions when we get a scum flip, until then it doesn't do us much good and would rather you focus on getting base reads on players in the game first.

Umm... I JUST got to the part where reuben was replaced by AH... I thought maria was the traitor slot...

I've literally been assuming that maria was conf scum and ignoring actually reading her. kms

[nydushermain]

Not taking at least one of daytalk, recruitment, or the JOAT is just bizarre to me. You can do without the BP and the Role Cop if you aren't taking a lot of power, and I can understand either doing both recruitment and daytalk or neither, but the JOAT deals with every power role the town can potentially get and is extremely powerful.

I think Kop's claim makes sense, I understand why he chose SSBM over Gamma, and I also don't think claiming roleblocked on a living player is nearly as dangerous as you've been suggesting, especially with Gamma having already outed; that leaves only one role left (tracker) that could counterclaim Kop's roleblock. If anything, I think Kop as scum would understand that claiming a block on the dead is going to look suspicious and, already at L-1, it would be optimal to take the 1/7 chance that he claims to have blocked a tracker with a result by accident.

On an added note to that, if kop were scum trying to fake claim, and gamma is real, then we know that scum took zero powers. That being said, why would he be afraid to claim block on ANYONE living? When he already knows that there are no PRs left? Thought of this during judge judy but didn't remember until this post. Thanks desp

[nydushermain]

what did kop claim

Roleblocker with n1 action on ssbm

[nydushermain]

Does traitor AH replace and immediately build a case against scum partner TB? Like.. a HUGE case? I think it depends on how much AH hates playing the alignment because if he's scum, he might've been playing suicidal scum and trying to get some distancing. I don't really think so though. I feel like the way he went about his push... it's just too... elaborate.

[nydushermain]

TB is probably town for this? That's just such a weird move from AH.

[nydushermain]

@Desp - I personally consider the JOAT very weak in this setup, it's only 2 1-shot abilities and using them optimally is difficult to do. In regards to Kop claiming to roleblock SSBM I think at the moment it's less fear of what other claims there might have been (Because if he's scum he knows there's no other) but the fact that he genuinely

couldn't

claim a roleblock on a living player; he would have to explain why he never voted or stated a scum read on the player coming into D2 where he voted Gamma.

If it's such a hard and awkward claim to make, don't you think he just claims something easier like bodyguard?

[nydushermain]

^this is a good observation. I'm not exactly sure what's the basis for Dunn's townread on me, apart from the fact he does townread me.

Interesting statement.

[nydushermain]

Oh... SAJ is my slot kek

[nydushermain]

Algebra - Scum
Needs to eat rope beacause common core is shit, and in my algebra 2 class I didn't learn a single thing

Yasssssss, this slot is fantastic. Lynch regfan 10x

[nydushermain]

Also Gamma you need to try and catch up with this game asap, if you're town you're almost certainly dying in the night so leaving behind reads would help.

Maybe scum!nydus hammers so that he doesn't have a chance muahahaha

[nydushermain]

INTENT TO HAMMER

you have 24 hours gamma. GL NERD

[nydushermain]

AH claiming that his initial scumread list was a reaction test, and to bring up trying to lynch TB again when he is the majority wagon? Hm..

[nydushermain]

If gamma didn't claim cop, I think that the way AH played day 1 would've 100% gotten him lynched today. That's interesting. I think that gamma's claim is decent though... but I think that everything else leads to him being scum.

[nydushermain]

UNVOTE: AH
VOTE: ThinkBig

Nvm, I actually just had a bit of a revelation. If AH is scum and Alisae/Dave are town pushing me as traitor, that wagon should have gained more traction. AH already highlighted the discrepancy in ThinkBigs opinion on me as traitor and how it relates to his reads. AH is town.

Me likes this train of thought.

[nydushermain]

If gamma didn't claim cop, I think that the way AH played day 1 would've 100% gotten him lynched today. That's interesting. I think that gamma's claim is decent though... but I think that everything else leads to him being scum.

Nvm. I think that SSBM's push on kop kinda seals the deal for me. Kop is probably scum...

[nydushermain]

How many town do I need for auto?

[nydushermain]

Too slow. I need 6.

Me, Regfan, Realeo (I'm like dead certain)

So now I need 3.

[nydushermain]

Nope, I'm having trouble following the logic that people are proposing so I'm just going to look for town based on emotions.

[nydushermain]

Otherwise I think I'm going to end up with 5+ scum.

[nydushermain]

Getting the ic power is actually pretty unlucky - one of the weaker ones I think

Minor but kind of interesting that he doesn't bring this up as a potential reason why the IC didn't die in the night and instead questions alisae's reasoning for why IC didn't die.

[nydushermain]

He's at L-1

[nydushermain]

I'm up.

Nydus how are you going with your catch up so far? Anything in particular you want to discuss?

I read the whole thread but in reverse order. Day 2 -> Day 1. Got a little confused because I thought the slots were kinda swapped... like I think mariar was the AH slot, etc. Main thing is, I kinda read the thread and forgot who said what so you're not going to get toooo much out of me. Either way, I think kop is a decent lynch. Can I just sheep you this game? I replaced into a game too big for me :<

[nydushermain]

@Realeo - Thoughts on scum taking 1 thing only v 0? If you had to take a punt at the exact scum team right now who is it?

@Nydus - I'd rather you put forward your own thoughts and reads, I'm pretty positive you're town here and hearing someone elses reads that I trust would really assist me here given that my reads don't match those of most of the room. What's your read on TB's play individually? What do you think the AH push/play around TB does to TBs alignment? What's your read on Dunnstral/Desperado/Dave/Superhans overall?

I know there's just a lot to read and it's hard. I'll try my best.

P.S. I never actually intended to hammer today, just wanted gamma to give reads at that moment but he's not... here?

[nydushermain]

My strongest read is on realeo. I think he's pretty town even ignoring the claim on him. I'm kind of liking hans in terms of content but dislike his aggression but that could just be a personality clash thing.

[nydushermain]

My strongest read is on realeo. I think he's pretty town even ignoring the claim on him. I'm kind of liking hans in terms of content but dislike his aggression but that could just be a personality clash thing.

Agree

As an individual, I kinda scumread SH, but I cannot find a good assosiation.

Yeah. At best I can call it a gut read.

[nydushermain]

P.S. I never actually intended to hammer today, just wanted gamma to give reads at that moment but he's not... here?

[nydushermain]

P.S. I never actually intended to hammer today, just wanted gamma to give reads at that moment but he's not... here?

To be fair, I feel "never actually intended to hammer" not genuine. When I see this post, I went..

Well regfan said like 5 minutes earlier that I shouldn't hammer within 24 hours so... I don't know what to tell ya xD

[nydushermain]

Only scumbags have conversations using emoticons. It's Realeo & Nydus, lock em up boys.

My strongest read is on realeo. I think he's pretty town even ignoring the claim on him. I'm kind of liking hans in terms of content but dislike his aggression but that could just be a personality clash thing.

Agree about Realeo entirely, he was my strongest town read before I even got to the report on him. I also had an early town read on Hans due to liking his content, I feel his content has dropped off significantly lately though and find a lot of his pushes and votes make sense as scum so eh I no longer have him in my town pool at all, in fact ignoring his D1 play I'd have a fairly strong scum read on his D2 play. My strong town pool atm is Realeo/Yourself/ThingBig and most people disagree with TB being town so you getting around to reading him is very much needed for me.

I can see where you're going with TB being town because who the fuck enters the game, replaces, and then hard busses his scum partner as post # 1. But at the same time, the way it's been going down near EoD was so weird. The way AH said "yeah I was joking but like let's go back on TB" was so weird. I think at the end of the day though, TB is townier for his interactions than not.

[nydushermain]

I can get down with TB being town... I just don't feel very comfortable from what I read.

[nydushermain]

We're like wasting days with people being inactive. What was the point of me replacing if people were just going to vanish into oblivion?

[nydushermain]

I'm in an allstars game but I'll weave in and out during night phases and stuff. I'll look at TB first because I think he is the most interesting. I didn't particularly care for his actions in either way but the AH interaction really does swing him townier than not for me.

[nydushermain]

I don't think TB ignoring it has anything to do with his alignment because if he's scum, he doesn't know AH is traitor. If anything, I think scum would fight back because they'd be annoyed. Actually yeah, if what you're saying is true, TB is probably townier but I should still read it myself.

[nydushermain]

I don't think that him fighting back would've been alignment indicative but I think him choosing to be more passive about it would lean town if anything.

[nydushermain]

intent to hammer

this one is real. How long do I give it?

[nydushermain]

Actually he already claimed so I guess it doesn't matter. Correct me post game if I was wrong to do this nerds

VOTE: Kop

[nydushermain]

Yo reg, tell me if you replace into a game with LESS pages and it needs a replacement so that I don't get overwhelmed by this xD.

[nydushermain]

I'd also like to note that if gamma is the cop, he was very absent in my last game as well... even when he was CCed in LyLo

[nydushermain]

I didn't even realize he was V/LA

[nydushermain]

I think Gamma just exit V/LA?

He left V/LA 2 days ago.

I am shooting you.

?

[nydushermain]

Regfan is most likely to be NK target, so I'd like you to give us any 'last words' incase you die.

Alright, here's where I'm currently at;

Town (S->W):

Realeo, Nydus, ThingBig (Gap), Gamma, Dunnstrsal, Dave

Null

: SuperHans, Desperado

Scum (S->W)

: Kop

The top three town reads are very strong and don't want them lynched at any point really; you can start considering ThingBig when it gets to 5 way and the games not over though because I seem to be almost alone in town reading him via his play and one of the few that think AH's push on him increases the odds of him being town rather than scum. I think Gamma gets resolved either via the Kop flip (If mafia he's clear) or the night actions (If he's legitimate mafia almost have to kill him due to the strength of his reports), if he doesn't then it's worth considering him a little tomorrow. I have weak town reads on Dunnstral and Dave but wouldn't put a lot on those. Think there's a good chance that there's scum inside SuperHans & Desperado but agree with whoever it was that mentioned they're unlikely to be partners. If Kop flips mafia like I think he probably will here I think SuperHans deserves a good look at, him voting Gamma based on SSBM reasoning but not Kop is sketchy and there's a potential post from AH that makes sense signalling to both partners if Kops scum with him.

Think I've got everyone I wanted down in the thread and we've given Kop & Gamma plenty of time to get in here and contribute, wouldn't be too displeased with a hammer from hereon out; if anyone has an issue with Nydus (or anyone really) hammering they should make it known as soon as they can.

[nydushermain]

Ugh... Okay I'll try when I get back -_- . I can't believe both of them are roles. I can't believe mafia DIDN'T choose recruit a friend LOL with 1 power.

[nydushermain]

If ThinkBig is scum, why are his reads changing in such an organic way that flows with the game events?

Loaded question

[nydushermain]

From this day I think Dave is town but I'm on my phone. I'm still leaning towards TB being towny based on the same reasoning as regfan

[nydushermain]

I also don't see what you guys are seeing about dave

In terms of scum or town? Because I think I called him town and superhans called him scum on the same page.

[nydushermain]

Right now I have a light town read on Dave, I have a townread on TB, and we have realeo and regfan as conf towns. How many people are alive right now?

[nydushermain]

Oh. 5 town is enough to win lol. Okay well I'm going to focus my efforts on making sure these two are town. Scumhunting is too hard.

[nydushermain]

Actually with both PR flips realeo is no longer technically conf. I have him on the re-read and analyze list.
I've lost a couple games as town by failing to accurately recognize "scum leading town", so I caution against doing solely town reads.

Gamma had a green check on him.

[nydushermain]

Oh fuck -.-. That's dumb.

[nydushermain]

Oh, I'd like to note I had realeo as town before the check so either way, I think he's good. I'm gonna keep him in the town circle for now but the fact that he's not cleared makes the game a tad bit more difficult. I thought I only had to find 2, in which case I could probably be pretty confident but having to find 3 might be a bit odd... that probably sounds a bit contradictory since I'm saying I had realeo as town anyways but I have a tendency to be wrong somewhere in my town circle when the number of unconfirmed in it become large. I can usually pick a small amount of pretty much guaranteed town and it ends up being right in most games I play.

Regfan, thoughts on realeo outside of the checks?

Also, I still think that TB is most likely town due to the day 1. If dave is indeed town, I have to decide whether or not the rest of the three have genuinely gone on eachother (which I haven't been paying much attention to). What I'm going to be doing is, instead of finding reasons as to why my town circle is correct (which I hope it is because that means I'm a boss), I'm going to change my strategy a little bit and ASSUME my town circle is correct. By doing so, I'll be looking within the 3 players left of desperado, superhans, and dunnstral. Within this, I'm going to set up the 3 worlds of:

Superhans + Desperado
Superhans + Dunnstral
Desperado + Dunnstral

as scum teams and see if I can eliminate any of the worlds. If I believe, with sufficient evidence, that the worlds can not exist, I'll stop pushing that my town circle is correct and then see where the scum can lie inside my town circle.

If people agree with my town circle for now (and by people I mean the people inside my town circle), I suggest you do the same because with 2 entire days of interactions, I think that there's more than likely sufficient associative reads to be had.

[nydushermain]

I've played this setup before and the scum team chose no powers and town got bodyguard and tracker and lost





good thing I wasn't town

Interesting comment now that we know that scum chose a power. Do you think that dunnstral as scum would pick a power after claiming to have won this setup having chosen no powers prior?

[nydushermain]

Wait, so goon cop gets a "not goon" result on:

Bulletproof
Role Cop
Jack of All Trades

?

In the future, if realeo ever does become considered potential scum, I think the world of realeo + dunnstral is dead just because of this. I don't think scum!dunnstral would be confused enough to ask this question. I think he'd just be super duper happy that his scum partner got not goon checked.

[nydushermain]

To be honest, I'm not sure how much I buy kop's claim, this is also the second time today my lynch target has claimed a power role to avoid being lynched so I'm a bit more skeptical

Still, I guess night kills will resolve this as well? So:

VOTE: Davesaz

Actually, I've got thoughts now:

VOTE: Kop

Think gamma having claimed first so not being able to say he blocked there is a pretty good theory, this looks more like scum fakeclaiming with a lowish amount of prs

VOTE: Davesaz

I don't think Dunstrall is scum on my wagon, regfan is confirmed town, if I had to choose scum on that wagon, Davesaz, Desperado or Superhans, it's within those 3.

Not sure where these thoughts come from, looks like trying to confuse people with his iso rather than figuring things out...

@Kop why don't you think I'd be scum on your wagon? Why is it between Davesaz, Desperado, Superhans?

I missed this the first time but I'd like to note that you can't possibly believe that night kills would resolve itself because what if gamma was town and kop was scum? What if gamma was town and kop was town? No matter what, if I were scum, I'd target the cop first OR IC if I wanted to cast suspicion on the claims. Regardless, kop is never death # 1 unless kop is town and gamma is scum which I think we were all in agreement that the latter was very unlikely to be the case. How do you decide in post 1459: "actually, now that there are mass claims, kop is scum again" when you thought that in 1375 that you should just wait for night actions to resolve the PR claims? Odd train of logic to me.

[nydushermain]

Wait, so goon cop gets a "not goon" result on:

Bulletproof
Role Cop
Jack of All Trades

?

In the future, if realeo ever does become considered potential scum, I think the world of realeo + dunnstral is dead just because of this. I don't think scum!dunnstral would be confused enough to ask this question. I think he'd just be super duper happy that his scum partner got not goon checked.

The last time we used this logic, a roleblocker is lynched.

@Dunnstral

: When is your last game of STD?

Followup question, can you link the game of STD? I couldn't find it in your past threads.

The logic used to lynch kop was one in which we assumed that scum would take 0 powers or many many powers, not just 1 because I personally couldn't see why scum would stop at 1 when combinations of powers seem so much stronger. It had nothing to do with "these 2 can't be partners."

[nydushermain]

I don't have the posts saved to prove it but I feel like anyone reading the ISOs can probably say that superhans and dunnstral are unlikely to be partners. That being said, I've only now just finished ISOing dunnstral. I'll work on the other two either later today or in the near future but I think the world, if we assume my town circle is correct, lies in

Superhans + desperado
Dunnstral + desperado

This makes desperado confirmed scum to me so I'll ISO him next to see if my theory has any weight.

[nydushermain]

The logic used to lynch kop was one in which we assumed that scum would take 0 powers or many many powers, not just 1 because I personally couldn't see why scum would stop at 1 when combinations of powers seem so much stronger. It had nothing to do with "these 2 can't be partners."

No. No. You're a short term person.

If you use the logic that [1] scum!Dunn won't say "Phew" so scum!Dunn + scum!Realeo is impossible.

the next step would be

[2] Dunn said "phew" but he had knowledge of this game from previous play, therefore is lying scum for being confused.

I just want to prevent us from getting to [2]. The first step to avoid [2] is to avoid [1]

Not true because he said that in his previous game, the PRs were trackers and bodyguard. I've already assessed that possibility. I believe his confusion is genuine regardless of his alignment. Still sticking to [1] and won't progress to [2] because of what I said above.

[nydushermain]

I don't have the posts saved to prove it but I feel like anyone reading the ISOs can probably say that superhans and dunnstral are unlikely to be partners

May you explain why? I think I would agree, but for different reason.

It's just their back and forth towards each other. To be honest, I didn't care for how dunnstral reacted to superhans but it was the quotes that dunnstral made OF superhans that made me think it was less likely. The way that superhans was trying to discredit the reads that dunnstral made, and the way he's talking as if dunnstral was caught scum, etc. just made me feel like they weren't a likely pair. I'm not 100% ruling out the possibility because I don't think either of them voted on each other at opportune moments but still.

[nydushermain]

Side note: I might not read superhans' ISO and might just look at little snippets from people quoting him because and ISO of 350+ posts is like... wtf until I have more free time

[nydushermain]

Oh, I'd like to note I had realeo as town before the check so either way, I think he's good. I'm gonna keep him in the town circle for now but the fact that he's not cleared makes the game a tad bit more difficult. I thought I only had to find 2, in which case I could probably be pretty confident but having to find 3 might be a bit odd... that probably sounds a bit contradictory since I'm saying I had realeo as town anyways but I have a tendency to be wrong somewhere in my town circle when the number of unconfirmed in it become large. I can usually pick a small amount of pretty much guaranteed town and it ends up being right in most games I play.

Regfan, thoughts on realeo outside of the checks?

Also, I still think that TB is most likely town due to the day 1. If dave is indeed town, I have to decide whether or not the rest of the three have genuinely gone on eachother (which I haven't been paying much attention to). What I'm going to be doing is, instead of finding reasons as to why my town circle is correct (which I hope it is because that means I'm a boss), I'm going to change my strategy a little bit and ASSUME my town circle is correct. By doing so, I'll be looking within the 3 players left of desperado, superhans, and dunnstral. Within this, I'm going to set up the 3 worlds of:

Superhans + Desperado
Superhans + Dunnstral
Desperado + Dunnstral

as scum teams and see if I can eliminate any of the worlds. If I believe, with sufficient evidence, that the worlds can not exist, I'll stop pushing that my town circle is correct and then see where the scum can lie inside my town circle.

If people agree with my town circle for now (and by people I mean the people inside my town circle), I suggest you do the same because with 2 entire days of interactions, I think that there's more than likely sufficient associative reads to be had.

Serious? davesaz is confirmed town because???

Here's my last game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=66795

He's not. I might have been quite unclear and I admit to that.

The way I'm going to play this game for the next couple of days (until/if regfan comes guns blazing and tells me I'm being stupid) is as follows:

1) set up a town circle of 5 including myself
-this was set up as me, dave, reg, real, and tb
2) assume that the town circle is 100% correct (despite uncertainty)
3) check the remaining pool of scum to see if there is a possibility that there is an existing team of 2
4) if there's a high unlikelihood of there being a team of 2 in the remaining pool of scum, check the town pool

tl;dr answer: In no way is dave confirmed town for me but my analysis will be done under the assumption that he is and if the remaining people who I think are scum can't really be on a team with eachother, I slash my town circle and start looking into it for scum

[nydushermain]

Sorry am I being scumread?

[nydushermain]

Sorry am I being scumread?

Get wrecked noob.

I'm pretty certain you're town, Realeo has some hesitation with that read though I'm willing to talk it out if needed. Have you made any progression in regards to narrowing down potential scum teams rolling under the impression that your town circle is correct?

Nothing more than what I've already posted.

[nydushermain]

Uhhh, if alisae was scummy, can we just ignore that he was ever in my slot? I agree that it's shocking that alisae, as town, didn't suicide by the end of day 1 but read my play instead realeo xD.

[nydushermain]

Oh I also forgot, AH was buddying up with someone and I forget who it was... I'll go back and find it. I might've already posted it but I think it's probably of note to bring it up again.

[nydushermain]

@Dunnstral that's incredibly lazy scumhunting. You haven't even discussed the composition/progression of the wagon or why the four people who are voting Antihuman are doing so being you thinking Antihuman is towny.

Why are you convinced there's scum on a four man wagon on a town lean?

^this is a good observation. I'm not exactly sure what's the basis for Dunn's townread on me, apart from the fact he does townread me.

Weird ass interaction.

[nydushermain]

Uhhh, if alisae was scummy, can we just ignore that he was ever in my slot? I agree that it's shocking that alisae, as town, didn't suicide by the end of day 1 but read my play instead realeo xD.

It's not Alisae that's scummy.

It's you.

Alisae is my town ally.

Oh. Can you pretend I never replaced and read ali then xD

[nydushermain]

@Dunnstral - The point about Supers read on Dave is a solid one and I'd like for him to explain his read there too. I think Desperados tunnel on ThingBig makes some sense as both alignments; As town wanting to go back to his original scum read upon a town flip or as scum wanting to find an easy avenue to push that doesn't create new enemies. It's his attitude while doing such and his comments (and lack thereof) about other players while doing it which I find highly concerning so I agree with you there.

Seriously Reg, I know you're reading my posts so why are you just making this shit up??? I have made substantial comments on every slot. I have good reasons for town and scum reading everyone alive. I told you guys Kop was real yesterday, and then the other claimed PR got shot. Literally nothing has changed from the middle of D2.

Can you link the post where you say kop is real? That seems odd. I want context.

[nydushermain]

I voted him, he claimed,

I continuously defended him until he was lynched.

^This is 100% fact.

The bolded is a big exaggeration; you had 4-5 posts where you disagreed with some of the reasoning presented for him being scum via his role claim and had a singular post where you called him town, that's the extent of your "defending him". And what you would/wouldn't have done as scum re; picks this setup is irrelevant given you replaced in thus would have had no decision on the matter. The problem I have here is that your play today looks like an attempt to grab town-cred from the Kop flip by defending him when the majority of the time you were defending him via him being a PR/ not buying the PRscumcase rather than actually town reading him.

I think that you should just take a step back and ignore desperado for a day. You might be right on him being scum but I can see you slowly spiraling into confirmation bias as a result of this fight.

[nydushermain]

Err, to the above, day meaning a real life day, not an in game day.

[nydushermain]

Hi prod, this is nydus T.T

[nydushermain]

A flip on thinkbig solves the game I think but I think he's more likely town so yeah... I think it's desperado + dunnstral maybe as a team. The desperado/superhans interaction doesn't seem quite as scum + scum but it's still possible.

[nydushermain]

^ That's after reading desperado's ISO btw. I'm going to read his predecessor's just in case but I don't think it'll sway me.

[nydushermain]

I think this is just going to be a battle of egos and end up circular. This is a useless argument and if the scum aren't within those arguing, they can EASILY hide.

@desperado, do you believe that the people you think are scum can be a team based on their interactions? I skimmed through your ISO and believe that you think that thinkbig is scum and I don't recall the other if you had one.

[nydushermain]

Can you note or remember anything they said about eachother that was odd? Any instances of hard buddying or ignoring eachother?

[nydushermain]

And you? Where did you get the "Desperado and Dunn are a team" thing

In class so can't quote anything but of my 3 scum, you two have the weirdest interactions. It feels like you guys are talking about eachother but kind of dancing around and not really committing to trying to read eachother.

[nydushermain]

Ny and Dunnstral, can you see the value in knowing Desperados town reads? If so can you ask on my behalf.

I think that there is value to it, as is knowing the reads of anyone in the game because if they're town, maybe their towniness will reflect in their reads. I don't however see the value of pushing him for it when it's clear he either won't give a response that you find satisfactory, or he's given a response he deems satisfactory. Regardless of his alignment, I think based on his response to you and regfan (unless I'm mistaken in who interacted with who), desperado believes that he's answered your question and I don't believe that anyone else asking will change that.

[nydushermain]

Continuing on with looking at votes...
SAJ is on Realeo d1 and it gets to 4. Alisae switched to Desperado - why?
Alisae then goes to AH, starting off in wagon position 5.
D3 something happens that causes Alisae to replace out. Suspicion that it's thinly veiled but tactical
Note: look at what was happening...

nydushermain replaces Alisae and votes Regfan. I thought at the time, surely it would be obvious Regfan is IC, but on further examination the mod did not update the playerlist to indicate confirmed town so this looks more like a greeting. lots of back and forth and then a hammer.

Followup questions -- why did Alisae change the vote to Desperado? What were the circumstances leading up to Alisae replace out?

LOL I don't know if I'm allowed to say this but alisae is active in other games so I'm assuming that he replaced cuz he doesn't like regfan having berated him for self hammering in a game we just played together. I thought he replaced because regfan replaced in. I'm gonna give that a 95% because he seemed invested into the game and randomly dropped out.

[nydushermain]

I agree with your analysis on dunn+desp,
@reg,
and I agree with you about me. Should I self vote?

I haven't really read deeply into dave's iso as of late but I'll take a look at your case on him and others on the bus. I'm kinda just waiting to sheep you but it seems like we're in the same spot anyways so all is good.
I'm not as confident on the superhans town read as you are btw, but I think there's a good chance dunns/desp ends the game so I don't really care too much on that read.

[nydushermain]

Pressed for time, I have a bug to squash.
I think I'm satisfied that ThinkBig is no longer "too obvious a choice". I'm very happy with the amount of analysis, I agree with most of it, and I think that's our lynch. Because of that bug I don't have time right now to add anything new.

LA for 24-36 hours

My reading comprehension turned to mush when I read this. Can you rephrase "I'm very happy with .... I think that's our lynch" again before you leave?

[nydushermain]

No. No one should self vote.

Be home in about two hours. Should respond more then

I was trolling reg.

[nydushermain]

Hi sorry D: I'm here. What do you need friend?

[nydushermain]

I'm having a hard time scum reading realeo at all so don't count on me if you think he's even remotely scummy, ever. I'll read during the night phases and I've been keeping up with the thread, just not posting. I was thinking dunn/desp as well and I'm okay with voting either, but I don't think I want to vote TB unless it's a final 3 scenario.

[nydushermain]

The thing that realeo mentioned about TB potatoing in this thread, but being hyper active in another is pretty interesting though. Haven't actually read his activity in the other thread so if you could enlighten me in terms of "how active" he's being by comparison, that would be great.

[nydushermain]

I would lynch dunnstral, and I'd lynch desperado, those are the two people I think are the scummiest. I don't actually think what dunnstral did in the past 4ish pages was that scummy. Maybe I don't know what to look for but it seems NAI other than one post where I just didn't like how it read.

[nydushermain]

You're saying vote dunstraal because you have a team of dunn + thinkbig and dunn + desperado correct?

[nydushermain]

Well I've already given my opinion, I believe, @regfan. Maybe you're expecting me to reference posts T.T I'm not sure but I believe that dunnstral and desperado is a very possible scum team. I think that TB's interactions with AH (or the other way around actually) can push TB to final 3 at the least. Also...

VOTE: ThinkBig

I'm ready to move on. Tomorrow is MyLo.

I want a VC to see but if that's pushing him anywhere close to L-1... like c'mon. Obv town.

[nydushermain]

Oh I'm stupid. The VC is literally on this page.

[nydushermain]

VOTE: dunstral

I'll swap to desperado regfan if you wantttttt *starry eyed*. This is my preferred, fyi. I think desperado has a higher chance of landing scum, or more cases of being scum partners IMO with other people.

[nydushermain]

I think desperado has a higher chance of landing scum, or more cases of being scum partners IMO with other people.

Then you need to talk about it instead of mindlessly sheeping and throwing out shade

But I think that desperado + you is the most likely scum team. Not sheeping, just willing to lynch you because you're scummy.

[nydushermain]

Can we not quicklynch

+1 Dunn's sentiment.

-1 Dunn's sentiment

[nydushermain]

Also, @regfan, I don't need your protection (I THINK) this game but in all seriousness, I think that if you were willing to give me a hard town read on your legacy, and I were scum, this is WIFOM, but I'm pretty sure I'd have given more effort to make myself lock town. My issue is that I've done the work of reading the thread and analyzing, but I'm just too lazy to quote things . I'm pretty sure we're on the right track though but honestly, we'll see with this flip, or any flip.

[nydushermain]

I'd relish in the opportunity to take part in your first town loss of the year if I were scum and you offered an amazing, prestigious regfan legacy town read.

[nydushermain]

That being said, I suck, I know. I'm totes not replacing into games that have over 10 or so pages from now on. That was too much for me and I don't feel as invested into the game because the game felt like it was solved the moment I replaced in with the traitor lynch day 1 and the myriad (?) of interactions day 1.

[nydushermain]

@Dunnstral that's incredibly lazy scumhunting. You haven't even discussed the composition/progression of the wagon or why the four people who are voting Antihuman are doing so being you thinking Antihuman is towny.

Why are you convinced there's scum on a four man wagon on a town lean?

^this is a good observation. I'm not exactly sure what's the basis for Dunn's townread on me, apart from the fact he does townread me.

Weird ass interaction.

I want to bump this post for the future. It was WAY too hard for me to find this in my ISO and I almost forgot about it. Want this for future days.

[nydushermain]

INTENT TO HAMMER

lmfao

It's disappointing isn't it xD? When I caught up, I was ready to vote JUST so I could say "do it" and laugh at superhans' helplessness in the matter but then I realized I already had a vote planted in the wagon.

[nydushermain]

@Dunnstral that's incredibly lazy scumhunting. You haven't even discussed the composition/progression of the wagon or why the four people who are voting Antihuman are doing so being you thinking Antihuman is towny.

Why are you convinced there's scum on a four man wagon on a town lean?

^this is a good observation. I'm not exactly sure what's the basis for Dunn's townread on me, apart from the fact he does townread me.

Weird ass interaction.

I want to bump this post for the future. It was WAY too hard for me to find this in my ISO and I almost forgot about it. Want this for future days.

Eh? What is weird?

It seems like blatant buddying doesn't it?

Nobody, except regfan and Dunnstral, addressed my fucking concern about ThinkBig is active in other game

I haven't addressed it but I did ask regfan about it because it was an interesting point.

The problem is, Dunnstal wagon is literally an express wagon while ThinkBig is not.

What are you seeing that I am not seeing with ThinkBig? I still doesn't understand nydus' fuss with 1995. Does nydus never roll mafia before?

I've played 3 games before this game. 1 of them was on mafiascum and I was town, 2 of them were on teamliquid and I rolled scum once and town once in those games. If you're really curious, I can dig them up and link them (they were like 1-2 years ago so you probably won't get much).

Why is nydus townreading TB when his reasoning of townreading TB is the same with Dunn townreading TB...but somehow scumread Dunn?

I think that the TR on TB is actually really easy and lazy. I'll admit, I didn't really go back and look through TB's ISO but the TR is mostly off of AH's ISO so if dunn is scum, it's not a hard reason to read TB town for. Either way, that doesn't automatically make me think dunn is town for reading someone town for the same reason, simply because the reason for TB's town read is innately shallow.

How the hell nydus reach the conclusion of dave town? That's magik.

I can 100% see where you're coming from because it was a magical town read. I lightly read dave town, and decided to try to solve the game as if my 5 townreads (including myself) were 100% confirmed town. I looked at the 3 remaining people to see if there were potential teams in there. If there wasn't a likely team in there, I was going to abolish my town circle and reform. That being said, I found a potential scum team of desperado + dunn, with a very light chance of dunn + superhans. I found that the desperado + superhans interactions seemed very unlikely to be scum + scum unless superhans decided "fuck you partner!desperado, I'm going to undermine everything you do from post 1." Regfan presented worlds of thinkbig +, dave +, etc. (I don't remember exactly which ones) but I didn't really consider them, nor did I try (although they could be scum) because I am operating under the assumption that they're town.

If we're going for real reads, instead of my handwaving BS from above, I agree with regfan that superhans is slightly towny, and that realeo is practically confirmed town in my eyes. I really do think that desperado and dunnstral is the likely team and I would probably leave TB to final 3 if it came to it because I find him being scum unlikely due to AH's interactions with him.

Oh and if Dunnstral flips town we 100% need to flip Dave tomorrow.

I think that's a dangerous line of thought because if we ML today, it's mylo/lylo tomorrow (consider the possibility of the role that shoots people for scum).

[nydushermain]

@Dunnstral that's incredibly lazy scumhunting. You haven't even discussed the composition/progression of the wagon or why the four people who are voting Antihuman are doing so being you thinking Antihuman is towny.

Why are you convinced there's scum on a four man wagon on a town lean?

^this is a good observation. I'm not exactly sure what's the basis for Dunn's townread on me, apart from the fact he does townread me.

Weird ass interaction.

I kind of want to talk about this again just in case people missed it, and I'm glad this post is being brought up countless times xD. It feels like both desperado and dunnstral can be scum based on AH's interactions. AH came into the game guns blazing and is being soooo passive towards dunnstral and is lightly supporting desperado. Maybe the way it reads just feels so ingenuine but it feels like some sort of attempt at buddying.

[nydushermain]

@Realeo - I mean attempting to back off the Dunnstral wagon because of "Speed" when it's been far from 'fast' to convince people to actually vote him makes little sense, if you play based on the knowledge that I'm confirmed town ergo my vote is meaningless re; wagon speed and also n the same logic that your vote means nothing re; wagon speed since you're town in your own eyes then there's only 2 question mark votes on the Dunnstral wagon to you (Nydus, SuperHans) and also 2 question mark votes on the ThinkBig wagon (Desperado, Dave) with Dunnstral/TB just being counterwagon votes. Certainly not a logical reason to move away.

Anyway heading to work, will be back in ~12 hours. Still very positive that Dunnstral is the correct avenue today.

I'll read Nydus's responses when I get home but Nydus if you haven't got around to it yet I want to hear from you who you think Desperado works with as scum other than Dunnstral himself since that's probably our larger disagreement in reads thus far.

I think I mixed desperado and dunnstral up actually. Superhans + Desperado didn't seem like a possible team... actually yeah. Dunstraal is in more worlds for me but only slightly. You're not going to get much out of my response because I only looked at the trio of dun/superhans/desperado but I COMPLETELY ruled out desperado + superhans so dunstraal is possible in both worlds with superhans and desperado.

[nydushermain]

Nobody, except regfan and Dunnstral, addressed my fucking concern about ThinkBig is active in other game

I haven't addressed it but I did ask regfan about it because it was an interesting point.

Eh, you do have brain right? Can't you trust yours?

it's not a hard reason to read TB town for.

Since you claim to be a new player,

welcome!

, I'd like to recommend reading

this article.

For some reason, I feel like when it comes to my posts, your reading comprehension vanishes. You said that it was weird that I scum read dunnstral when dunnstral town read TB for the same reason that I was townreading TB but my response was that the townread on TB is the easiest one you can make, regardless of TB's alignment. Sometimes, scum have to make easy reads because it's hard to think of genuine reads on everyone because you have perfect information. That's why I think that people townreading TB is not really a town point for them, because saying something like "TB is town cuz AH pushed on him" is the easiest read you can make this entire game. It's incredibly shallow. I have no idea what the white flag gambit has to do with any of this.

[nydushermain]

Oh no. It's already different topic! We are no longer talk about that!

I'm saying that "TB is town cuz AH pushed on him" is a moot point due to White Flag Gambit. My mistake for not setting the context.

Ohhhh.... Unless AH's slot was dying before he replaced, I disagree because AH came into the game trying to push on TB right away. That was literally his opening post.

[nydushermain]

Dunnstral finally lynched thank god xD. These days go on for too long when the lynches are somewhat obvious.

[nydushermain]

lmao there was nothing obvious about a dunn lynch

I disagree. I think other than TB being a potential lynch for people, dunstraal and you were pretty high on the table.

[nydushermain]

Realeo

(Vanilla Townie)

was killed Night 3.

It is now Day 4.

---

DAY 4 VC 000

Not Voting ( 6 ) -

(Superhans, Desperado, davesaz, ThinkBig, Regfan, nydushermain)

Four to lynch.
(expired on 2017-02-15 02:17:02) remain until deadline.

That's actually really funny. FYI Realeo became conf town the moment dunn was revealed.

[nydushermain]

Wait there's a claim! I'm on the wrong page LOL catching up

[nydushermain]

Oh... Like a literal scum claim -_-

VOTE: Thinkbig

I read through the last couple of pages so carefully -_-... But yeah, I was voting you and afking for the rest of the game @thinkbig after the claim. Didn't make sense to self vote without claiming, and then you can't think certain people are auto clear when the mafia PR could be JOAT that have ninja kill.

[nydushermain]

Yeah Realeo had a real-o-good game. We clashed at times but I found him enjoyable to play with and liked that he kept an open mind. Most of the playerlist this game had a few things right at some point so it was an all around decent performance, AH getting lynched D1 certainly didn't help the scum team.

I'm probably not the best person to give scum advice (My scum game is a bit poor) but I'll do a quick skim tomorrow and give you some little tips. I'm mostly better as a town player though, this game marks 15 town wins in a row (I haven't lost as town since 2013!).

This game marks my 1 game winning spree as town

[nydushermain]

(Unless thinkbig is actually VT and trolling)

[nydushermain]

LOL yas. I was like too lazy to read the paragraphs xD

[nydushermain]

desperado falling into the same trap of "didn't realize game was over"

[nydushermain]

Sounds good. I'll do so later. Also, I should say this. I tracked superhans last night. He went nowhere which means he has to be town.

what the fuck mate

I had the EXACT SAME REACTION when I read it. LOL. I eagerly read the rest of the thread... only to realize he conceded

[nydushermain]

wooooooooooooooooooooo

[nydushermain]

Why didn't you guys pick day chat then?

[nydushermain]

I don't have permission to view these threads it says

[nydushermain]

nvm, I'm just impatient. Carry on mod!

[nydushermain]

Yeah I came into this website thinking I'd only be doing closed, normal setups or newbie games. It was fun having to guess what was out there with the choose your powers setup. Will try to look for these again.