OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)

[Realeo]

To be specific, kyouko positioning himself.

[Realeo]

VOTE: Kop

I'm off work an hour and a half before deadline btw if it has to be AH, his wagon is certainly going up and down a lot here

You mean this one?

[Realeo]

@Realo do you still believe this?

I still believe this.

But the initial assumption is that TB is town.

I removed that in my current calculation.

[Realeo]

Is he genuinely confused?

mafia traitor is bulletproof btw so they wouldn't even die

I didn't realise it's BP until I looked at the setup specs. It's one shot though, but obviously that doesn't mean anything, just means scum won't shoot that slot again.

Bodyguard is close enough to doctor that that's what I'd take it as, by the way

I agree, but I don't see any point crumbing it. It would be plain stupid for someone to be brazen enough to stand up and shout hey I'm a cop, or I'm a doctor/bodyguard.

And if he is stupid enough to do it, then well I'd not be lynching him based on that, the game will dictate what will happen if there was any truth in it.

Which I don't believe there is.

I cannot tell if it is a genuine train wreck.

I keep asking how "he missed traitor crumb" but it seemed he didn't miss it, he mistaken it with "Mafia PR CC crumb?"

[Regfan]

Really need that Alisea replacement asap.

mafia traitor is bulletproof btw so they wouldn't even die

I didn't realise it's BP until I looked at the setup specs. It's one shot though,

but obviously that doesn't mean anything, just means scum won't shoot that slot again.

This post above that you quoted Realeo strengthens my scum read on Kop. If he thought mafia knew traitor why is he even making the bolded section.

[Realeo]

Good point!

[Realeo]

@Does the clock stops if Alisae replacement doesn't come in until deadline?

[Realeo]

Let's finish the clarification at ThinkBig's case at Alisae and lynch Kop.

[grapes]

@Does the clock stops if Alisae replacement doesn't come in until deadline?

If I find a replacement before deadline I'll accommodate them with time to read upon request. Otherwise deadline stays as is.

[grapes]

DAY 2 VC 009

Kop ( 3 ) -

(Regfan, davesaz, Dunnstral)

ThinkBig ( 2 ) -

(Alisae, Realeo)

davesaz ( 1 ) -

(Kop)

Desperado ( 1 ) -

(ThinkBig)

Superhans ( 1 ) -

(Desperado)

Not Voting ( 2 ) -

(Gamma Emerald, Superhans)

Six to lynch.
(expired on 2017-01-21 05:24:02) remain until deadline.

[Superhans]

VOTE: Kop

ThinkBig you haven't rebutted any accusations that your behaviour with AH D1 was scum theatre. How do you explain your flakiness?

[ThinkBig]

ThinkBig you haven't rebutted any accusations that your behaviour with AH D1 was scum theatre. How do you explain your flakiness?

Can you point me to posts that you think were scum theatre? Why do you think the mafia traitor would bus his buddy as hard as he did?

The flakiness is more or less my playstyle, unfortunately. I tend to take a few steps back and re-evaluate the game when I am scum read regardless of alignment. One thing I need to work on in my play is defending myself and also building better cases against people I see as scum.

VOTE: Kop

This is L-1

I highly doubt we will be getting any answers or responses from Kop.

[ThinkBig]

I'd also like to note that even when I was V/LA and flakey, I have still tried to contribute to the game as much as I can.

[Superhans]

Whats your case on Kop?

[Dunnstral]

Whats your case on Kop?

You serious?

[ThinkBig]

Whats your case on Kop?

Did you not see 1466?

[Superhans]

oh sorry

[Regfan]

TB, please respond to Post 1473.

Also this is getting silly how stagnant the games become, the replacement is badly needed. I'll be heading to the shops if there's not one by the time I'm back I'm just posting my analysis.

[Regfan]

Yeah I give up waiting for a replacement and am just going to play based on the assumption that Alisea claims VT, if they do differently I'll reassess and post my other scenario then.

Mechanically speaking there's only 3 possible worlds if Alisea claims VT;

1. Mafia selected 0 Additional PR's, Kop is scum. In this instance Gamma & Realeo are confirmed town.

2. Mafia selected 0 Additional PR's, Gamma is scum. In this instance Kop is confirmed town.

3. Mafia selected 1 Additional PR, Kop/Gamma are town. In this instance Realeo is always town if mafia selected daytalk (If they picked only 1 this is probably it too) and more likely town than any other player even if they selected a role.

So all up from that Realeo is almost always town. Personally I think it's more likely mafia went lots of PR's or none (Admittedly small sample size but this has been the case in prior games of this setup) so the fact we only have 1 additional PR claim here makes me think we've got scum fake claiming as they were getting run up -- it's the optimal play to make as scum in this setup and I think between them Kop is much more likely mafia.

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All three of Realo, Alisaea & ThingBig are off the lynch table for me today and in the foeseeable future, the three of them are my strongest town reads inside the game. If people need me to elaborate on my reasoning behind town reading them any more than I currently have let me know because as it currently stands I don't want these guys lynched at all and think if these three recognise the others are town the odds of town winning this game go up astronomically.

I'm still inclined to think that Gamma is town due to the manner of his claim and crumbing (As well as logical progression behind the choice) of his Realeo non-goon result however if he doesn't die in the night (Which he almost certainly will if he's legitimate as his reports means quite a lot with only 3 PR claims) and Kops not mafia it's certainly worth considering him a bit, as it currently stands though if Kops mafia then Gamma+Reaelo are confirmed town and if Kops not mafia it's still possible scum are all goons (As they may have taken daytallk) so I'd consider his reports to be highly likely town results if he's legitimate. People need to keep this in mind when moving forward with the game.

I think Daves play since I've replaced in is outside of his scum range to the point where I'm not willing to lynch him today, that said I wouldn't rule him out entirely given that there's several things inside his play (Predominately pre-replace in) that have scum motivation behind them. I certainly want to see him actually providing more content and reads on the entire room outside of his one line reads list without having to be prodded for them. I went into it above but I've liked Dunns stances and play throughout the game, I think they've been the more logical and accurate ones, I wouldn't say I'm confident he's town but he's not in my lynch pool at the moment at all.

That leaves the players I'd be willing to consider lynching today inside of Kop (Current preference, awaiting his response though), Superhans & Desperado.

I touched on this earlier but if Kops scum that means there's no mafia PR's in the game. When getting run up there scum almost always fake claim a PR to hope to survive longer, he can't claim rolecop given it's already been claimed, impossible to fake claim vig and if he fake claims BG he can never kill Gamma without outing himself. That means as scum he only has two options; fake claim tracker or roleblocker. I think the fact he claimed one of these two roles alone increases the odds of being mafia, I think the fact that if he's scum he's stuck in regards to who he can claim to have roleblocked since Gamma claimed first puts him in a bad position with "The dead" being the easy out.

So I very much want to lynch Kop today and think the focus afterwards should be around Desperado/SuperHans initially. That said I don't want to actually have a hammer occur until we've given the mod a little more time to get a replacement for Alisea since if they are a PR that does change things quite a bit. I also want TB to get around to fully elaborating on his Alisea read (See above post) and Kop to try and convince me we're wrong if he's town as well as Gamma to contribute.

[grapes]

nydushermain replaces Alisae!

[davesaz]

1. Mafia selected 0 Additional PR's, Kop is scum. In this instance Gamma & Realeo are confirmed town.

I don't follow this - how would scum Kop confirm Realeo as town?

[Regfan]

Nydus, we need you to claim your role asap so we can finish this massclaim.

@Dave - If Kop is mafia that means there's only 2 PR's inside this setup (Assuming Nydus is a VT), that means that no mafias are roled and therefore Gammas no-goon on Realeo would be a clearance.

[nydushermain]

I have not followed ANYTHING in this thread so I'm just going to trust your word on it. I'm VT

VOTE: regfan

[nydushermain]

I've NEVER replaced into a game over 5 pages long... especially something with 60 pages (jesus christ) so I'm going to try my best to catch up but I definitely need some form of TL;DR. I don't particularly trust myself to remember everything because I'm not a note taker. Also, alisae surviving into day 2 as town is shocking. Surprised he didn't self hammer.

[ThinkBig]

I have not followed ANYTHING in this thread so I'm just going to trust your word on it. I'm VT

VOTE: regfan

You do realize that regfan is the innocent child, right?