OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #1450 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:04 am

Post by Kop »

In post 1447, Realeo wrote:
@Kop
If you are nervous of Gamma's wagon, why you don't role block him?
At the time on day one, I suspected Gamma, but then when I seen kyouko positioning himself with regards to the AH wagon and totally misunderstanding the whole traitor, I felt that with AH flipping traitor, kyouko knew that he was the traitor. But being stupid, honestly, if I wasn't thick and actually understood the traitor role, I wouldn't have roleblocked kyouko at the time because it would have given me a different view to what he was taking. It would have boiled down to him actually seeing something AH not being scum, rather than knowing he was scum and just wanting to distance himself.
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Post Post #1451 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:48 am

Post by ThinkBig »

Just finished going back through day 1. I did find one post in which Kop SR'd ssbm_Kyouko and mentioned that he would push to lynch either ssbm or superhans.
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Post Post #1452 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:49 am

Post by ThinkBig »

More thoughts from glossing over d1 and d2: Desperado/Superhans are most likely NOT scum together.
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Post Post #1453 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:03 pm

Post by Regfan »

Realeo, you're going down the tin foil road that Aliseaa went down of "The move of bussing like that makes so little sense that mafia did it because we didn't expect it!", it's not the right avenue to pursue at the moment. By all means if ThingBig is still alive in the 5 way and there's still scum left you can contemplate that world but for now looking at the most logical and likely world of scum pushing town is the best one to consider. As for AH's actions closer to a lynch it has two purposes a) Him "resigning and stating lynch me I'm town" is often a move scum make to get town read and b) It's a purposeful attempt to link himself with TB so that TB gets lynched post-flip. The idea that this is AH's first game on this alt means nothing in regards to what he's more likely or less likely to do in regards to bussing. As for you "Don't mock new players"; I'm not, I'm telling you to pursue another angle at the moment, even if TB's scum there's still a second and I'm not voting TB meaning the only likely way he gets lynched is with scums assistence (Meaning in the case he's town). And I'm not a bad play by any means; currently at 14 town wins in a row and haevn't lost a town game in 3 years. So please, just entertain the notion of TB being town for at least one day.
In post 1448, Realeo wrote:Hold on a second. Why is it not town consistent if Kop didn't roleblock Gamma? According to TB and regfan, we called it didn't consistent because he changed from Kyouko -> Gamma?
But from town!Kop's mind, when he roleblocked kyouko, kyouko is still alive. It's a double standard to expect Kop would vote for Kyouko despite he's dead, right?
The inconsistent part it this (And I'd appreciate if you think this thorough in detail before responding); There was a noticable scum read on Gamma from Kop yesterday, there was no no read mentioned on Ssbm. If you think his action of roleblocking is going to be used on a scum read (Which is always the aim of it) then you'd expect Gamma to be the target selected; given that Gammas already claimed a report it's not possible for him to claim to have blocked him. Sure it's not implausible that he actually did reread and in the night and think that Ssbm was scum for avoiding the AH wagon thinking the mafia knew the traitor but in that case why did he instantly vote Gamma today; the person that lead the AH wagon?
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Post Post #1454 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:09 pm

Post by Desperado »

In post 1397, Desperado wrote:@ Reg, the only part I don't agree with is that claiming to roleblock the dead is safe if he's scum.

It isn't weird at all that he isn't suspicious of Gamma's claim, and he voted Gamma because he believed AH to have been diverting pressure off of Gamma after replacing in, not because Gamma pushed AH.

@ Dunn: That would depend on how much power the scum took. You seem to be assuming that they didn't take away; why is that?
In post 1399, Desperado wrote:
In post 1396, ThinkBig wrote:@regfan. Good points. I looked through his ISO and not once did he mention SRing ssbm. He did, however, vote for and SR Gamma. Why would he RB ssbm over Gamma?
In post 212, Kop wrote:
In post 210, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 200, Dunnstral wrote:I don't want to lynch Realeo
I want to lynch realeo. He's used doctor and cop emojis already, I think he's trying to setup fakeclaim crumbs and needs rope
In post 211, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:also if maf didn't recruit the traitor he could be making obvious PR crumbs to try to get his team to shoot him and recruit him if he's the traitor

These are baseless accusations. They hold no truth or any argument that can hold any water, using them emojis doesn't exactly have a warrant to lynch him, based on that.

As for your second point, that's wrong. If I'm recalling correctly, if they shoot the traitor, he dies. I once had the traitor role and mafia shot me, and I died. I didn't join them.

I'd choose to push a lynch between you, or Superhans right now.
In post 380, Kop wrote:
In post 352, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:AH what's your opinion on Gamma's vote on Desperado, and Desperado's sudden swap from voting Gamma to you?

Desperado, you switched from voting Gamma to voting the player defending Gamma pretty abruptly, can you further explain both of those votes because right now it looks like you're getting onto easy wagons

VOTE: Desperado
In post 364, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:@Desperado - Yeah, looked like really bad reasoning to me which is why I'm asking him questions. Didn't see anything specific about Thinkbig that would have made AH pick him off the Gamma wagon which makes me think his motivation there was to derail the Gamma wagon, rather than to find scum on it. I guess your vote makes sense, and I was going to vote AH when I read his TB case and looked into the votes on Gamma, but then I saw you vote AH and that steadies my hand a bit because your vote was naked and had just swapped from the leading (but losing traction) Gamma wagon onto the rapidly growing AH wagon. Anyways, as I write this post I realize there's better reason to vote for him being scummy than there is to not vote him because his wagon is moving fast.

VOTE: Antihuman
Why does Desperados vote steady your hand because it was naked?

You mentioned before about getting onto easy wagons, haven't you done the same?
;)
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Post Post #1455 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:13 pm

Post by ThinkBig »

Spoiler:
In post 1454, Desperado wrote:
In post 1397, Desperado wrote:@ Reg, the only part I don't agree with is that claiming to roleblock the dead is safe if he's scum.

It isn't weird at all that he isn't suspicious of Gamma's claim, and he voted Gamma because he believed AH to have been diverting pressure off of Gamma after replacing in, not because Gamma pushed AH.

@ Dunn: That would depend on how much power the scum took. You seem to be assuming that they didn't take away; why is that?
In post 1399, Desperado wrote:
In post 1396, ThinkBig wrote:@regfan. Good points. I looked through his ISO and not once did he mention SRing ssbm. He did, however, vote for and SR Gamma. Why would he RB ssbm over Gamma?
In post 212, Kop wrote:
In post 210, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 200, Dunnstral wrote:I don't want to lynch Realeo
I want to lynch realeo. He's used doctor and cop emojis already, I think he's trying to setup fakeclaim crumbs and needs rope
In post 211, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:also if maf didn't recruit the traitor he could be making obvious PR crumbs to try to get his team to shoot him and recruit him if he's the traitor

These are baseless accusations. They hold no truth or any argument that can hold any water, using them emojis doesn't exactly have a warrant to lynch him, based on that.

As for your second point, that's wrong. If I'm recalling correctly, if they shoot the traitor, he dies. I once had the traitor role and mafia shot me, and I died. I didn't join them.

I'd choose to push a lynch between you, or Superhans right now.
In post 380, Kop wrote:
In post 352, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:AH what's your opinion on Gamma's vote on Desperado, and Desperado's sudden swap from voting Gamma to you?

Desperado, you switched from voting Gamma to voting the player defending Gamma pretty abruptly, can you further explain both of those votes because right now it looks like you're getting onto easy wagons

VOTE: Desperado
In post 364, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:@Desperado - Yeah, looked like really bad reasoning to me which is why I'm asking him questions. Didn't see anything specific about Thinkbig that would have made AH pick him off the Gamma wagon which makes me think his motivation there was to derail the Gamma wagon, rather than to find scum on it. I guess your vote makes sense, and I was going to vote AH when I read his TB case and looked into the votes on Gamma, but then I saw you vote AH and that steadies my hand a bit because your vote was naked and had just swapped from the leading (but losing traction) Gamma wagon onto the rapidly growing AH wagon. Anyways, as I write this post I realize there's better reason to vote for him being scummy than there is to not vote him because his wagon is moving fast.

VOTE: Antihuman
Why does Desperados vote steady your hand because it was naked?

You mentioned before about getting onto easy wagons, haven't you done the same?


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Post Post #1456 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:17 pm

Post by Regfan »

In post 1450, Kop wrote:At the time on day one, I suspected Gamma, but then when I seen kyouko positioning himself with regards to the AH wagon and totally misunderstanding the whole traitor, I felt that with AH flipping traitor, kyouko knew that he was the traitor. But being stupid, honestly, if I wasn't thick and actually understood the traitor role, I wouldn't have roleblocked kyouko at the time because it would have given me a different view to what he was taking. It would have boiled down to him actually seeing something AH not being scum, rather than knowing he was scum and just wanting to distance himself.
Lets just state you believed all of this was true and that mafia knew traitor & that Ssbm acted like he didn't want to lynch his traitor. Why vote Gamma today? Surely based on the analysis you did around the wagon (That was making you think Ssbm could be mafia) would have Gamma as more likely town to you given he was one of the people that were voting/wanting AH lynched throughout the whole day. Explain the disconnect to me. If you're town here you need to actually start contributing your thoughts on the game state and the players in it because there's a decent chance you get lynched otherwise.
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Post Post #1457 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:28 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

Just waiting for a replacement
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Post Post #1458 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:30 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1434, Regfan wrote:All up I town read a lot of his actions and posts throughout the game but there's no singular action of his that I think is completely unfakeable. I think he's probably town here and certainly has the more logical reads in the thread but wouldn't entirely rule him out of being scum.
Meh, I wonder if this suspicion is from watching me in the large dance

I've got some thoughts on the game state but I want to finish up the massclaim first before I say anything (which unfortunately means waiting a bit)
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Post Post #1459 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:34 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

Actually, I've got thoughts now:

VOTE: Kop

Think gamma having claimed first so not being able to say he blocked there is a pretty good theory, this looks more like scum fakeclaiming with a lowish amount of prs
In post 1312, Kop wrote:VOTE: Davesaz

I don't think Dunstrall is scum on my wagon, regfan is confirmed town, if I had to choose scum on that wagon, Davesaz, Desperado or Superhans, it's within those 3.
Not sure where these thoughts come from, looks like trying to confuse people with his iso rather than figuring things out...

@Kop why don't you think I'd be scum on your wagon? Why is it between Davesaz, Desperado, Superhans?
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Post Post #1460 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:36 pm

Post by Regfan »

In post 1458, Dunnstral wrote:Meh, I wonder if this suspicion is from watching me in the large dance
Eh, it's not really suspicion moreso just cautiousness over my town read on you and has nothing to do with the Dance game. I don't see much scum agenda or motivation behind your posting here but I don't think the lack of that necessarily means you have to be town. I just think this is the type of room I'd actually like to draw scum in because with the way I'm reading the game I think there's enough townies doing the scums job for them which means scum can sit back and make logical/good posts if they wanted to. With all that said I mean you're probably town here? It's just if we went through the rest of my scum/null pool and the game wasn't over I'd consider you.
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Post Post #1461 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:37 pm

Post by Desperado »

In post 1455, ThinkBig wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 1454, Desperado wrote:
In post 1397, Desperado wrote:@ Reg, the only part I don't agree with is that claiming to roleblock the dead is safe if he's scum.

It isn't weird at all that he isn't suspicious of Gamma's claim, and he voted Gamma because he believed AH to have been diverting pressure off of Gamma after replacing in, not because Gamma pushed AH.

@ Dunn: That would depend on how much power the scum took. You seem to be assuming that they didn't take away; why is that?
In post 1399, Desperado wrote:
In post 1396, ThinkBig wrote:@regfan. Good points. I looked through his ISO and not once did he mention SRing ssbm. He did, however, vote for and SR Gamma. Why would he RB ssbm over Gamma?
In post 212, Kop wrote:
In post 210, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 200, Dunnstral wrote:I don't want to lynch Realeo
I want to lynch realeo. He's used doctor and cop emojis already, I think he's trying to setup fakeclaim crumbs and needs rope
In post 211, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:also if maf didn't recruit the traitor he could be making obvious PR crumbs to try to get his team to shoot him and recruit him if he's the traitor

These are baseless accusations. They hold no truth or any argument that can hold any water, using them emojis doesn't exactly have a warrant to lynch him, based on that.

As for your second point, that's wrong. If I'm recalling correctly, if they shoot the traitor, he dies. I once had the traitor role and mafia shot me, and I died. I didn't join them.

I'd choose to push a lynch between you, or Superhans right now.
In post 380, Kop wrote:
In post 352, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:AH what's your opinion on Gamma's vote on Desperado, and Desperado's sudden swap from voting Gamma to you?

Desperado, you switched from voting Gamma to voting the player defending Gamma pretty abruptly, can you further explain both of those votes because right now it looks like you're getting onto easy wagons

VOTE: Desperado
In post 364, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:@Desperado - Yeah, looked like really bad reasoning to me which is why I'm asking him questions. Didn't see anything specific about Thinkbig that would have made AH pick him off the Gamma wagon which makes me think his motivation there was to derail the Gamma wagon, rather than to find scum on it. I guess your vote makes sense, and I was going to vote AH when I read his TB case and looked into the votes on Gamma, but then I saw you vote AH and that steadies my hand a bit because your vote was naked and had just swapped from the leading (but losing traction) Gamma wagon onto the rapidly growing AH wagon. Anyways, as I write this post I realize there's better reason to vote for him being scummy than there is to not vote him because his wagon is moving fast.

VOTE: Antihuman
Why does Desperados vote steady your hand because it was naked?

You mentioned before about getting onto easy wagons, haven't you done the same?


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It's not Information Instead of Analysis if I've already provided the analysis and regfan is either ignoring it or discounting it.
;)
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Post Post #1462 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:41 pm

Post by Regfan »

@TB - Desperado is right, it's not IoA.

@Desperado - Not ignoring it, just think it's fairly worthless points in that it's super early game comments about Ssbm & if that was actually what would have made him scum-read Ssbm enough to roleblock him I think we'd have seen a scum read on SH today for the same reason (Scum read hm early on, was avoiding the AH wagon) which we never saw from Kop, instead he just revoted Gamma.
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Post Post #1463 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:46 pm

Post by Superhans »

In post 763, Realeo wrote:So this catch my attention....
In post 634, Antihuman wrote:No need for useless speculation, I will flip town and TB will flip scum. Feel free to hammer.
So AntiHuman plays the AtE card at L-1. The wagon at the L-1 was.
Antihuman ( 6 ) -
(Gamma Emerald, Desperado, ssbm_Kyouko, ThinkBig, Alisae, SuperHans)[/color]
I find it strange. AntiHuman has made a play (in my opinion) an excellent analysis (he fooled me) and push with confidence.


Why the sudden mood change from confindence to surrenderness?



I think he surrender because his scum partner is voting against him. As a mafia traitor, judging by psychological analysis, being a mafia traitor is a lonely role. Being foresaken by his partner is a lonely game.

So there are 6 people. To a certain degree.. TB is town. ssbm flipped town.
There is a minimum of 1 scum in (Gamma Emerald, Desperado, Alisae, SuperHans)
@Realo do you still believe this?
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Post Post #1464 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:12 pm

Post by Superhans »

TB you have not explained your interaction with AH D1.

There's not a wagon on you but seems like your V/LA and low quality content has paid off for you.
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Post Post #1465 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:32 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

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Post Post #1466 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:43 pm

Post by ThinkBig »

Updated read list with explanations. I re-read the the game and a ISO'd several people to really make sure I didn't miss anything. Here's where I am.

Regfan

Gamma Emerald

Realeo

Dunnestral

Dave

Alisae
Kop

Superhans

Desperado


Spoiler: Key

Conftown

Town

LeanTown

NullTown

Null - {N}
NullScum

LeanScum

Scum

ConfScum


Spoiler: Gamma
I really wish Gamma would post more. However, from what I have seen, I am comfortable putting him in my town column. He claimed goon cop and no-one has yet to CC him. I do wish he would be more active.


Spoiler: Dunnestral
I think Dunnestral is town. He comes across as genuinely trying to solve the game. I like how he is not quick to jump on easy wagons. However, his response to my wagon comes across as possible buddying. Gun to my head, I think this slot is town.


Spoiler: Alisae
This slot is still very null to me. Until we get a replacement and a claim, it will remain null.


Spoiler: Dave
Not entirely sure what to think of this slot. Gun to my head, I put him as more likely to be town than scum. I like 1424


Spoiler: Kop
Kop claimed roleblocker and claimed to have roleblocked ssbm. I am still very skeptical of his claim for the reasons I have mentioned and the reasons that regfan has mentioned. However, I do not believe he's the best lynch for the moment. Would scum!Kop have made such an obvious slip or claimed something that could obviously be pointed to as a scummy safe claim? I'm not entirely sold on the case against Kop, but I do wish he would come back and actually contribute to the game.

Just as a side note, during my V/LA and periods of low activity, even I was contributing more to the game than he was! .


Spoiler: Desperado/Superhans
I honestly think the best lynch today is either desperado or superhans. While I do not think they are scum together, I'm confident that there is at least one scum between them. Desperado's case against me was pretty much all shade throwing and trying to somehow connect me to antihuman (which I still do not understand).

Hans, on the other hand, took his arguments and sheeped it and cheerleaded his arguments. I find myself agreeing with Desperado that Hans sudden shift on me did not come from a town mindset. Yet the flip side of that, I really
really
do not like 1357.
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Post Post #1467 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:43 pm

Post by ThinkBig »

In post 1464, Superhans wrote:TB you have not explained your interaction with AH D1.
What part of my interactions with AH would you like me to explain?
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Post Post #1468 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:44 pm

Post by ThinkBig »

In post 1465, Dunnstral wrote:
Spoiler:
Image


Hey, I could actually read and understand the Hebrew!

(ego post)
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Post Post #1469 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:45 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1468, ThinkBig wrote:Hey, I could actually read and understand the Hebrew!
(I can't)
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Post Post #1470 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:54 pm

Post by Regfan »

ThingBig, I wanted some more detailed thoughts on Alisae rather than "Null" "Waiting for a replacement". What do you think of their play throughout the game? What do you like about it and what do you find scummy about it? Some substance behind that read would be really appreciated. I do like most of your lynch pool for today as it's fairly similar to mine (Except add Kop to mine as probably my top preference at the moment).

This is getting frustrating waiting for Alisea - if we don't see a replacement in the next few hours I might just post my analysis based around the assumption that they'll probably claim VT; not preferable though.
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Post Post #1471 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:05 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1470, Regfan wrote:This is getting frustrating waiting for Alisea - if we don't see a replacement in the next few hours I might just post my analysis based around the assumption that they'll probably claim VT; not preferable though.
I already know what you're going to say here and I agree
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Post Post #1472 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:11 pm

Post by ThinkBig »

The main reason why I still null read this slot is because of the super faux "reaction test" in 991 and 993. I also think 947 is fake as hell.

I also took a look at Jin, the slot whom alisae replaced, and didn't like his jump on realeo. Jin's shot at realeo came across as very opportunistic.
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Post Post #1473 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:14 pm

Post by Regfan »

Okay, so those are reasons to scum-read the slot, to have the slot as currently null you have to in turn have reasons you think they're town to put them there; what are they?

And Dunn I think you've correctly guessed what it is too.
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Post Post #1474 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:49 pm

Post by Realeo »

In post 1450, Kop wrote:I suspected Gamma, but then when I seen kyouko positioning himself with regards to the AH wagon and totally misunderstanding the whole traitor, I felt that with AH flipping traitor, kyouko knew that he was the traitor.
Which post does this happen?
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