Micro 676: Bill Wurtz Mafia (Game Over)

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Post Post #725 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:32 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

I've explained several times why I think Syry is town, I'm not gonna do it again. Clearly you don't think my reasons are correct/good enough.

Pedit yes I agree I didn't love that explanation, scum could very easily make that post after the claim. But I think it's equally possible he's town and picked up on my softing - it wasn't like I hid it overly well, it was really obvious.
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Post Post #726 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:32 pm

Post by borkjerfkin »



Votecount 1.12


[3] Syryana (Transcend, Parama, KainTepes)
[2] Parama (Syryana, Stormcloud)
[1] Gamma Emerald (Morning Tweet)
[1] Transcend (Gamma Emerald)

[2] Not Voting (implosion, CommKnight)

With 9 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-01-24 22:00:00)
Last edited by borkjerfkin on Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #727 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:33 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

Spoiler:
In post 708, Stormcloud wrote:
In post 181, Morning Tweet wrote: So far I've learned from readable posts that Stormcloud is town, and I want to say Syr is likely town for having a similar thought process to mine.
I'm reading Tweet as town, and although this was pretty early in the game she's echoing my thoughts on Syryana. I think Syry's thought processes and switches of focus have been genuine and natural. She was never keen on the implosion lynch, she perked up once Transcend was on the the table. Her switch to Parama (I think, I might have to go back and check) came before I expressed any strong Parama suspicions (I had them for a while before I said anything, so I don't think she was sheeping me there).
She has been a little bit too friendly at times with the "dearie" in one post. Don't love that and it's not like she's locktown never ever gonna vote her or anything.
But nothing about her seems off to me like it clearly does to you. I've read her ISO and the relevant sections of the implo and Transcend pushes a dozen times and nothing there is majorly bothering me.
In post 709, Stormcloud wrote:Alright, went back and checked. Syry's switch to Parama is more suspicious than I initially thought, but I think I believed that he was gone (as in, not lurking but rather not online at all) during the time between post 506 and post 599 where he votes for Parama and follows me. Obviously the Transcend wagon was dissolved at this point and the confirmed town is voting for Syry's other main scumread (apart from Gamma who's gone). If Syry had not been suspicious of Parama before and suddenly voted for him out of nowhere, that would be pretty scummy, but he's always had Parama in his lynchpool so the move makes total sense to me.
Also he tries to explain the Parama scumread way back in 171 and it's a hilariously bad explanation. That screams town to me - scum would have made up some reason related to the game and tried to make it look like a legit read.
Not saying it couldn't be faked, but why give a gut scumread with basically no logic, admit it's a terrible explanation, just so that you can later join that wagon and have it not look opportunistic? I don't buy it. Syryana has been very consistent thought process wise and I love post 171.


This is my tldr as to why im reading syry town.
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Post Post #728 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:38 pm

Post by Parama »

In post 132, KainTepes wrote:UNVOTE: Stormcloud perhaps i may be misunderstanding you at points. let me look at your posts again
for the record this sequence of posts on this page is the main reason i townread kain

on top of that kain's play is just really all over the place and i feel like it'd be a little more controlled if they were scum
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Post Post #729 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:45 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

In post 721, Parama wrote:Storm, there's one thing you've failed to do up to this point.

Why does my switch from Transcend to Syr make sense if I'm scum and Syr is town? The only reason I can think of is that you think I'm scum with Transcend. Which... doesn't make much sense if you read through the game.

Until you can justify that you don't really have a basis for an argument against me, since you said yourself you townread me until I switched to Syr.
Scum can switch their scumreads/pushes to appear town. It's Day 1, so scum can't push one mislynch and win. You need to appear town for future days too. If you push on Transcend, then change your mind and move to Syry as if you were convinced by him, that looks very town. But now I'm remembering what people said about the most obvious motivation usually being correct, which means this is just a paranoid conspiracy theory.
If everyone's most obvious motivations are correct it looks to me like we're all town. Because whoever the scum are, I think they are very skilled and will therefore do things that look town to me as a less experienced player. So my best option looks like sheeping the confirmed town and my strong townreads rather than following my own original thoughts.

In my real life games my gut reads are often pretty accurate. I don't love being wrong, but I really hate when I'm right and someone manages to talk me out of voting for my correct scumread.
That's why I'm being so stubborn here. I don't want to ignore my gut and regret it later. I'd rather lose to a clever scum I never suspected than push on the scum all game and let them talk me out of the lynch.
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Post Post #730 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:46 pm

Post by Parama »

syry strikes me as experienced enough to know to not just jump for every wagon, so avoiding implo but hopping on transcend is a good way to keep consistency while still pushing a mislynch, if transcend indeed is one. it's not a scumtell but it's not close to worthy of a towntell.

syry's entire push on me is, quite literally,
NOTHING
.
things syry has said about me:
1. i am in syry's lynch pool (which is just attempted poe as far as i can tell)
2. i could be scum faking everything (which is, sure, true, but not justifiable as a scumtell, as i've literally just said about. it's null at best)
3. "i literally have no reason beyond gut" which is basically the catch-all excuse for when you don't have a proper explanation.
i would be fine with #3 in a vacuum, but the issue i see is that syr didn't elaborate on this read until pressured to, and has yet to give a single reason why my posting in this game is scummy. there's just vague broad swipes and a lack of interest in actually showing why i'm scummy

honestly going back through all this has actually just convinced me more than i'm right here and syr is scum, so thanks for that at least
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Post Post #731 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:47 pm

Post by Parama »

i also still think it's very likely gamma is scum for what it's worth. but that's probably just because there's literally no way to read that slot and there's to many other people i have varying degrees of townreads on.
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Post Post #732 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:47 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

In post 728, Parama wrote:
In post 132, KainTepes wrote:UNVOTE: Stormcloud perhaps i may be misunderstanding you at points. let me look at your posts again
for the record this sequence of posts on this page is the main reason i townread kain

on top of that kain's play is just really all over the place and i feel like it'd be a little more controlled if they were scum
I loved that Kain interaction, it was super town.
It's his latest series of posts that are bothering me. I've called out several for being even more odd than usual KT.
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Post Post #733 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:50 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

I agree on Gamma but I'm not lynching someone that isn't here. It's lazy. Either we lynch someone else or we wait for Tuesday.
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Post Post #734 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:58 pm

Post by Parama »

i mean i'd love a lynch on syr but we're probably just gonna end up dragging this out to tuesday either way so meh
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Post Post #735 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:05 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

I'm scared of you, Parama, because I think you're very persuasive and very capable of persuading me.
I'm also scared of Syry - I'm scared I'm being pocketed and am now biased.
I don't have the bluster and confidence I usually feel in mafia. Perhaps it's the much longer days that make second guessing oneself so much more likely.
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Post Post #736 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:26 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

Tweet you popped in to ask a couple questions...any ideas?
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Post Post #737 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:33 pm

Post by Parama »

are you less scared of me now
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Post Post #738 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:38 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

I can't figure out what the heck is going on with its face tbh
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Post Post #739 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:52 pm

Post by CommKnight »

My Parama read is definitely sliding towards town over the past few pages. Also consistency. Storm has missed his explanation and his explanation of his explanation but I've seen them and they seem genuine to me at the moment.

So assuming my Parama and Transcend town reads are correct, Gamma being AFK and not comfortable lynching Kain today. It'd be between Tweet and Syrana. Which I kinda want to see more from Tweet. I don't mean just asking questions about OTHER people's reads, but expanding upon her current views at this moment. I think we do need something more from her and no one else seems to be willing to pressure for more.

VOTE: Tweet

I realize I won't have much support on this, but it's between you and Syr. Unless Syr is a bad mafia who got himself looking suspicious, I think you have a very real chance of being scum and if Gamma is also scum, that's the perfect way for you to get by without looking like you're avoiding any active players.
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Post Post #740 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:04 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

In post 739, CommKnight wrote: I realize I won't have much support on this, but it's between you and Syr.
If you know you won't have support and you know a single vote isn't going to provide much pressure, and your other scumread has an active wagon going on, why vote for Tweet?
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Post Post #741 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:43 pm

Post by CommKnight »

In post 740, Stormcloud wrote:
In post 739, CommKnight wrote: I realize I won't have much support on this, but it's between you and Syr.
If you know you won't have support and you know a single vote isn't going to provide much pressure, and your other scumread has an active wagon going on, why vote for Tweet?
I got a feeling if I go ahead and help lynch Syr, he's going to pop town. Also if we don't get Tweet to talk today, it might be too late tomorrow.
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Post Post #742 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:50 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

Why would you voting Syry, who you just said was a scumread, make him more likely to be town?
He's either town or scum, and you either townread him or scumread him, but you voting for him isn't going to change his alignment.

Might be too late as in, Tweet might die overnight?
Cause if she dies, then we obviously learn her alignment. I'd love to hear more from her as well but I don't think one vote is gonna magically make her talk a whole bunch more. She knows she's being townread by most people and isn't on the table for today.
If she's alive tomorrow then it's definitely not too late, just because people townread her now doesn't mean they always will. A lot can change in a night.
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Post Post #743 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:53 pm

Post by CommKnight »

Or you can add your vote to mine and begin piling up the pressure.

This isn't about reads. This is about instinct. As in I scum read Syr and not 100% sure about Tweet, but know from past experiences that if I let Tweet slip through, then my luck will be that Syr will be town and Tweet be mafia and no one bothered to make Tweet talk enough D1 to get further reads on her upon flips today and tonight.

It's not that complicated to understand. I'll last minute lynch Syr, but until then, I want more out of Tweet and I'll push a wagon on her to L1 if I have to, to get more.
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Post Post #744 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:53 pm

Post by CommKnight »

Or you can add your vote to mine and begin piling up the pressure.

This isn't about reads. This is about instinct. As in I scum read Syr and not 100% sure about Tweet, but know from past experiences that if I let Tweet slip through, then my luck will be that Syr will be town and Tweet be mafia and no one bothered to make Tweet talk enough D1 to get further reads on her upon flips today and tonight.

It's not that complicated to understand. I'll last minute lynch Syr, but until then, I want more out of Tweet and I'll push a wagon on her to L1 if I have to, to get more.
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Post Post #745 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:54 pm

Post by CommKnight »

Not sure what happened but sorry for the double post, I only clicked submit once.
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Post Post #746 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:59 pm

Post by Stormcloud »

"I'll push a wagon on her to L1 if I have to"
And where is this wagon gonna come from?
Transcend isn't voting her today. I don't think I am, even for pressure reasons.
I think Syry isn't either. Gamma's gone. KT said his vote is final (but who knows really).
Where is this L1 wagon that makes Tweet feel so pressured that she has to talk going to come from?
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Post Post #747 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:12 pm

Post by Syryana »

I'll bite.

VOTE: Morning Tweet
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Post Post #748 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:12 pm

Post by CommKnight »

Just gotta convince Parama, Implosion and Syrana would be forced to out of self interest.

Fastposted by Syryana, speak of the devil.
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Post Post #749 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:12 pm

Post by Parama »

syr:

why is tweet scum.
why am i scum.
what is the motivation behind any of your votes.
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