Micro 676: Bill Wurtz Mafia (Game Over)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #675 (ISO) » Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:58 pm

Post by Parama »

i don't really care whether you believe it, since it's what happened regardless of what you choose to believe.
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Post Post #676 (ISO) » Sat Jan 14, 2017 9:22 pm

Post by implosion »

Comm wrote:Don't pretend we'd ever figure something like that out from that very very vague "crumb".
The whole point of it is that you aren't supposed to be able to.
Comm wrote:Finally, was I wrong for wanting a claim D1? It outed two people, however, it definitely supplied plenty of reads worth of material.
To put it simply, a claim at some point on d1 is inevitable. We just want it to be mafia who makes the claim. Not the masons who are now both going to die the next two nights and leave the town with no power. Which is why we
talk
and
reason
before we lock onto one player, so that the person we force to claim is more likely to be scum!

Spoiler: Wallpost that's only really relevant if you're storm
In post 610, Stormcloud wrote:Nvm had you confused with someone else. You have always had Transcend and Parama in your lynchpool.
If you are town I'm gonna have to move past my paranoia of buddying and work with you I guess.
Paranoia of buddying is healthy. Just like paranoia of anything else. Town will do it, scum will do it.
In post 625, Stormcloud wrote:I'm really sorry if I've messed up the game guys. I just want to know what is so bad about my thoughts and where my logic is wrong and what exactly I should be looking for. I know it's not a newbie game or anything but I'm not gonna learn much from "your opinions are bad".
You're playing perfectly well. You're thinking things through and coming to your own conclusions, and reasoning with other people. That's all anyone can really ask for.
In post 631, Stormcloud wrote:I don't know what to think right now. I feel like everything I have is just gut.
This is the lovely thing about drawing mason or innocent child or being the confirmed player; you get to have the least information to go off of. From our point of view there are 7 players and most likely 5 are VTs and 2 are goons (or maybe a scum PR, who knows).
I think I assume all town players will post and look and think like me and that's just not true because of different playstyles.
In post 634, Stormcloud wrote:Yes I agree, but I'm not sure how to break that habit and account for playstyles as I read
The way that I generally try to overcome this bias is to think about motivations. Any player, regardless of their playstyle or yours, will have made each of their posts for a reason. You have to look at any given post and think about what the possible motivation behind that post would be if that player is town, and what the possible motivation behind that post would be if the player is scum. Ultimately you'll pretty much never be able to rule either out completely, of course, but in many cases one will make much more sense than the other. For example, a player putting themself in a compromising position with regards to how they're being read without gaining anything tangible out of it can in some cases be a strong towntell.
In post 669, Stormcloud wrote:I also think that trying to predict the scum based on which mason dies tonight (if one does die) is a bad idea because the scum could easily kill the mason that is wrong, taking their chances defending themselves against the other one. And implosion and I do share a few reads I think anyway so I just think that idea is really weird.
We should certainly spend some time during night phase going over reads. I imagine you're a bit more likely to die just because you're being more active, but it is mostly meaningless to speculate on it.
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Post Post #677 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:46 am

Post by Stormcloud »

Thanks for the advice implosion. I was a little stressed due to out of game stuff yesterday too and I think it spilled over a bit. I'll try not to let it happen again.

iirc, you also support Parama lynch over Transcend. Is it for a similar reason to me, or something different?
Do you see why there's support for a Syry lynch at all? I just reread with a fresh mind after waking up and after reading your post and my gut still says town on her. I wouldn't mind her lynch today, there's at least some info gained, but I'm certainly not voting her right this minute.
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Post Post #678 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:48 am

Post by Stormcloud »

Spoiler: Transcend's "town" posts
In post 424, Transcend wrote:It was fake

I just don't know how to get town read lol
In post 426, Transcend wrote:Like basically a last resort
In post 432, Transcend wrote:Intent to self hammer to fget out of this hell
In post 433, Transcend wrote:And no storm

Don't lynch someone solely for death tunneling incorrectly

That's a bad thing
In post 436, Transcend wrote:Like my flip isn't terrible but it isn't great
In post 437, Transcend wrote:Anyways ima say this and he's probably gonna hammer me but imo lynch syr tomorrow
In post 439, Transcend wrote:VOTE: Syr

Come at me
In post 441, Transcend wrote:My wagon is actually full of town. MT is the only person not voting me besides Comm who is correctly reading me and someone i trust. Doc her over these garbage masons and let her take you to the promised land.
In post 443, Transcend wrote:No worries

And btw i know you fos Comm, but he's my hardest tr and if I'm wrong you can shit on me in post game.
In post 444, Transcend wrote:So please take that read at face value because I've had that read since d1 and I'm rarely wrong about my p1 trs.
In post 446, Transcend wrote:Oh and I'd totes self hammer as scum but I'm doing last second game solving


These are Transcend's posts in between Parama's "Transcend is so fake pls lynch" and his "I'm up for lynching Syr" where he stopped the Transcend push. Supposedly these felt like genuine town frustration to Parama.

I
could
believe that, but I find the explanation that Parama is scum and saw that the Transcend lynch wasn't happening and decided to switch over as more likely. Somebody said I should go with the motivation I feel is most likely - well, that's what I'm doing. It may be incorrect, but it's what I believe right now and Parama has said nothing that calms my suspicions.
Some of Transcend's posts there also seemed towny to me, but not so much that I completely moved away from him. Also Parama was pushing the actual hammer/lynch way harder than me, I was always willing to give Transcend the benefit of the doubt and explore other options given how early in the day it was.
I know Parama doesn't care what I believe, but I hope this explanation is clear to the rest of town so that those who agree can join me, and those who don't can give dissenting opinions.
VOTE: Parama
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Post Post #679 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:51 am

Post by Stormcloud »

I'm not gonna continue to discuss optimal times to claim, it's a theory discussion and it's NAI. Take it to the mafia discussion boards.
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Post Post #680 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:37 am

Post by Parama »

hey storm, you realize that Transcend was at L-1 when I unvoted, right?
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Post Post #681 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:38 am

Post by Parama »

In post 678, Stormcloud wrote:I find the explanation that Parama is scum and saw that the Transcend lynch wasn't happening and decided to switch over as more likely.
(this explanation makes literally no sense given those circumstances)
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Post Post #682 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 8:44 am

Post by Stormcloud »

Okay, fair enough.
I'm still trying to figure out what makes Syry so scummy - Transcend said it has to do with how he didn't defend implosion at all and said he'd be okay with lynching implo if the game wasn't going anywhere. Syry didn't like implo's vote change onto KT and said it degraded the tr he had earlier quite a bit.
Syry's "case", if you can call it that, on Parama is pretty weak and mostly looks like gut, but it's been fairly consistent - he asks me why I'm townreading Parama, then he says he hasn't seen anything Parama couldn't fake yet. This is super early, post 168. He has Parama and Transcend in his lynchpool - I'm not seeing his vote switch as opportunistic.
I think he didn't defend implosion because he would have been okay with lynching him. Not thrilled, but there was no reason for him to start another wagon when someone he has minor suspicions of is at L-1.
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Post Post #683 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 8:56 am

Post by Syryana »

In post 682, Stormcloud wrote:I think he didn't defend implosion because he would have been okay with lynching him.
I actually didn't defend implosion because I had a suspicion the two of you were masons from your earlier posts about him being solid town. I did a reread after I made my "bored, intent to intent to hammer if nothing happens" post and realized you were way too certain he was town. I didn't want to call attention to the fact in the event the wagon derailed without a claim.
In the timeless words of a great and revered man: "Blow it out your ass."
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Post Post #684 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:11 am

Post by Stormcloud »

Syry as much as I would love to believe that, and it's probably the most straightforward reading, I'm going to take it as NAI because it's really easy to say that after the fact.
But it does make sense and I'm not holding that event against you right now.
Were you nervous that someone else would hammer him at all? Or were the rest of the non-voters all people you trusted to wait?

I really want to hear from some other people that aren't Syry, Parama and Transcend. I don't think the four of us are gonna get anywhere further right now. It's pretty clear who suspects who and I don't see anyone's mind changing without some outside input.
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Post Post #685 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:50 am

Post by KainTepes »

LETS LYNCH SYRY AND PANAMAMAAMAMA
I AM KAIN TEPES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


"I am afraid of SAYING HIS NAME!!!!" - Toto

"why be a better mafia player, when you can be a better KAIN TEPES???" - Vi
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Post Post #686 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:50 am

Post by KainTepes »

if i am wrong i will gladly COMMIT SEPPUKU
I AM KAIN TEPES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Post Post #687 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:57 am

Post by Stormcloud »

KT if we lynch both and we're wrong on both and you're town and we kill you too, we probably lose lol.
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Post Post #688 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:13 am

Post by Parama »

so Kain thinks I'm bussing

quaint
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Post Post #689 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:13 am

Post by KainTepes »

I DONT BELIEVE WE CAN BE WRONG ON BOTH.........................
I AM KAIN TEPES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Post Post #690 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:14 am

Post by KainTepes »

In post 688, Parama wrote:so Kain thinks I'm bussing

quaint
i never said you and Syry were BOTH SCUM
I AM KAIN TEPES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Post Post #691 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:16 am

Post by Parama »

you want to lynch us both

so that implies to me that you think both are scum

if this is not the case, maybe you should try THINKING CRITICALLY and use that super power to FIGURE OUT WHO THE SCUM IS
(spoilers: it's SYR)
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Post Post #692 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:23 am

Post by KainTepes »

I AM SAYING LYNCH ONE AND IF NOT CORRECT LYNCH THE OTHER WE ARE BOUND TO CATCH ONE SCUM
I AM KAIN TEPES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Post Post #693 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:23 am

Post by KainTepes »

I DONT MIND LYNCHING EITHER TODAY BUT NOT LYNCHING OUT OF YOU TWO,, you can convince me to lynch SYR though
I AM KAIN TEPES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Post Post #694 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:25 am

Post by Stormcloud »

It implies that he thinks there's one scum in {Parama, Syryana} so if we lynch both we're guaranteed one scum.
I don't think that's always true, I think it's very possible that you're both wrong town.
Parama you seemed very certain of Transcend earlier, and now you seem very certain on Syry. Is that how you always scumhunt, without any doubt in your mind that you're correct?
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Post Post #695 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:26 am

Post by Stormcloud »

I'm just finding that interesting because of how doubtful and paranoid I am. I'd love to feel that kind of certainty about my reads.
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Post Post #696 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:31 am

Post by KainTepes »

storm do you really think they can be TVT??
I AM KAIN TEPES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Post Post #697 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:35 am

Post by Stormcloud »

I don't see why not. Town make incorrect reads all the time, and if they are both town, the scum have no reason to rock the boat since it's a mislynch either way. They can just support either person and it doesn't really matter.
Also, town do and say "scummy" things all the time. Just look at how everyone was jumping on implosion. Nearly everyone in the game at this point has had something they've said called scummy by someone else, but we're not all scum.
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Post Post #698 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:36 am

Post by Stormcloud »

That said, I think it's
likely
there's a scum in Parama Syry, just not a 100% locked in probability. You seemed very sure of it.
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Post Post #699 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:13 am

Post by Transcend »

Hello
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