OPEN 663: STACK THE DECK (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #1100 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:01 am

Post by Regfan »

@Gamma
- I would appreciate you unvoting in that case, especially given I just replaced in a few hours ago. Plus we're not lynching TB today, I'll go into that later though.

I think Han's question about Gammas scum meta in shows a town thought process behind it, I also like his posts directed to MariaR in the early game. I think SH's question in is more likely to come from town albeit this is a weak point. I don't necessarily agree with SH's logic in but I can follow the thought process behind it. I think SH's attitude around deadline D1 in ~ comes across as town. The progression behind SHs an is very questionable especially considering his prior stance on the night kills being WIFOM. I like his analysis of Dave in but dislike the TB vote inside . I think him bringing up Dunns prior scum game inside this setup in and asking him to explain how he thinks his play has changed in is a decent town tell but his follow up of "Just fucking with you" is underwhelming. I have a weak town read on him all up but would like to actually see some more content from him today.

@SH - Can you run me through a few things please; 1) What specifically what made you change your stance on AH/TB "Never being scum together" to currently having TB as your current strongest scum read. Please don't refer to Desperados case when answering this, I want your exact thought process because has some real questionable logic involved in it. 2) Can you explain the change from you stating that Ssbms death was WIFOM inside to proceeding to vote Gamma for Ssbm inside since that's a fairly weird flip to make. Would also love any other reads you have at the moment with some reasoning attached.
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Post Post #1101 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:19 am

Post by Regfan »

If Gamma doesn't come back to unvote can someone else do so, I feel rather uneasy with someone being within hammer range while I'm still in the process of getting my reads down.

I'm not going to waste a lot of time going through Gammas ISO because if he's legitimate he likely dies in the night the majority of the time. I also did like his reaction towards Aliseas vote in as a breadcrumb for a Not-Goon result on Realeo. I think the manner he claimed in makes a lot more sense coming from town trying to push the game forward in the right direction, while he had votes on him there wasn't a serious threat of a lynch at that point however the game was stagnating. Him claiming there as mafia risks him being CC'ed there while putting him in a position where it's hard to explain not ding as scum. He's probably just town and dying, if he's still alive two days from now you can give some serious thought to him being fake but between now and then there shouldn't be anyone wanting to contemplate lynching him.

On the role front if we have a vig they need to shoot once to take us away from evens to odds.
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Post Post #1102 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:24 am

Post by Realeo »

In post 1092, Dunnstral wrote:By the way, nobody can answer who's scum in tb is town. Nobody is even attempting to find scum. Even if tb is scum there's still another one you know
I have daveaz in my pocket, but I am not confident with my analysis.
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Post Post #1103 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:27 am

Post by Realeo »

In post 1095, Regfan wrote:Lol are people seriously voting ThinkBig, the fuck is going on.
Nobody gave a counter-wagon--well it was Gamma but he claimed Joat. Please do start one.

Spoiler: Ooooo
I said JOAT again
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Post Post #1104 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:30 am

Post by Regfan »

Can you at least unvote ThingBig for now. If you disagree with my analysis for him not being the lynch / someone else being a better lynch you can converse with me over it later and revote if you want but for now unvote so I can get my reads down safely.
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Post Post #1105 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:37 am

Post by Realeo »

UNVOTE:
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

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Post Post #1106 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:41 am

Post by Realeo »

@Regfan: I think the first step to actually convince me to unvote ThinkBig is to explain to me, why TB is VI, not scum flailing.
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Post Post #1107 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:58 am

Post by Regfan »

@Realo (And also others that are attributing lack of content & prod-doding as a scum tell for TB
) Thanks. ThinkBig replaced into Newbie 1758 (He stole the slot from me! as town (I suggest you read his ISO, it's short) and got lynched the day before lylo, inside the game he had a lot of similarities as what he's portrayed here, huge lack of content, lots of unfulfilled promises to catch up later, I've seen a few other games of his too I think where he's done a similar thing as town. I think he's just a newer/weaker player.

I find Daves analysis of the wagons in a whole lot of nothing, the conclusions from it are minimal and while he admits that in I think it's the type of scumhunting that's easy to do as mafia. I did like his timestamp analysis of of AH in despite disagreeing with his conclusion. I really dislike the "Maria crumbed traitor" push in and find it a very lazy push especially given there's no specifics to this given whatsoever. The vote on TB D2 in is similarly very lazy and his mention that he thought AH's case on TB was pretty good was never mentioned D1, this is a fairly large point not to mention D1 if he's town. His scum read on Desperado inside and his explanation that it's attributed solely to MariaRs play rather than Desperados (Who has been in the game considerably longer and provided much more content) in makes little sense. His comment inside his TB read looks like him setting up an excuse post-flip with the "Could be AH misdriection". I think there's a very realistic chance that Daves scum here, his reads particularly his one on MariaR/Desperado re; Traitor yesterday and scum today feel fake and his TB vote is very opportunistic.
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Post Post #1108 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:03 am

Post by Realeo »

In post 1107, Regfan wrote:@Realo (And also others that are attributing lack of content & prod-doding as a scum tell for TB) Thanks. ThinkBig replaced into Newbie 1758 (He stole the slot from me! as town (I suggest you read his ISO, it's short) and got lynched the day before lylo, inside the game he had a lot of similarities as what he's portrayed here, huge lack of content, lots of unfulfilled promises to catch up later, I've seen a few other games of his too I think where he's done a similar thing as town. I think he's just a newer/weaker player.
Your argument sounds good, until you realize that we're not lynching for the argument that you mentioned.

We did not lynch him because he is lacking content. (If that's the reason, Kop would be dead body by now) We lynch him because of his shitty logic and we believe this shitty logic is scum flail, not VI.
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Post Post #1109 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:05 am

Post by Realeo »

Let me put it this way.

We have 2 shitty logic. One shitty logic from Realeo back early and one shitty logic from ThinkiBg.

You said my shitty logic back early is town. How about ThinkBig?
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Post Post #1110 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:06 am

Post by Regfan »

So yeah, currently I'm pretty positive Releao is town, think there's a very decent chance that Gamma and Hans are town too and think Daves probably mafia here.

Going to take a short break and get to the rest of the players.

PEdit: The link I gave you shows that he's a weaker player in general, it's not implausible for weak players to put forward weak logic and cases (And I haven't even agreed that his necessarily is yet, he actually had a multitude of very good points on AH being scum). I'll get around to going though his specific posts and analysing them like I did yours shortly, patience.
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Post Post #1111 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:14 am

Post by Realeo »

I am pocketing Daves for d3 lynch, so you have my corporation if this discourse is sucsessful.

@Regfan:

Let me thoroughly explain my feeling:

Quality of read is pretty much NAI, ye? It's not the quality, but the brain behind it, right? If the brain is shitty, but a towny brain, than a shitty brain but town is a town brain.

One of the biggest indicator of town brain is consistency. I acknowledge that town can contradict their argument,
but not their brain.
If town contradicts their argument, you can still see the town making the argument. Maybe he's changing his mind. Maybe he's tired.

Scum,however, would contradict their brain to manipulate town to the wrong position.

My problem with ThinkBig:
In post 1059, Realeo wrote:I think the biggest problem that prevents me from unvoting TB is, if everything is scummy for town!ThinkBig (ie. running gambit, questioning people) then what is towny?

How does questioning people or running gambit is not genuine solve the problem. I cannot find the boundary line.

I feel that ThinkBig is plagiarizing his read list.
He just collect what people think, snap into a read list and call it "ThinkBig's readlist"
I cannot see a town brain.

@Regfan: As an excercise, please observe ThinkBig's revised read list. Help me pick a town brain. That read list does not come from a town brain. That read list comes from scum trying to appeal to the majority.
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Post Post #1112 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:17 am

Post by Realeo »

In post 1110, Regfan wrote:he actually had a multitude of very good points on AH being scum
Can we discard this argument? Remember AH is traitor, so TB won't know if AH is also scum-sided.
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Post Post #1113 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:25 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 1112, Realeo wrote:Can we discard this argument? Remember AH is traitor, so TB won't know if AH is also scum-sided.
The fact that AH is traitor and not mafia does change things to some degree but it's not something you entirely rule out. It's not a case of "X pushed on mafia therefore X is clear", it's a case of his argument for AH being scum had a lot of solid and logical points that suggests genuine scumhunting moreso than scum trying to push a mslynch. I'll comment on the rest of TB's posts including his read walls in ~30 minutes, going through his ISO now.
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Post Post #1114 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:39 am

Post by Regfan »

I didn't mind TB's vote on Maria in given his explanation in that the purpose was to get content from her. I actually liked his vote on Gamma in since I similarly didn't like the manner Gamma voted Desperado. His response towards AH's case in was actually rather good especially the point about the IoA attack being able to be attributed to another player as well and his point about AH focusing solely on him and not commenting on anything else that transpired was a good point. I dislike and disagree with a lot of the reasoning behind some of his reads inside but don't necessarily think the reads posts is scum-motivated or a scum-tell, just bad play. The inclusion of Desperado in is lazy and does need to be explained in more detail though, the reposted reads list in is lazy perhaps but it's not exactly identical, there is some notable changes inside that it does show at least a small solving attempt, notably Hans moves from null to his strongest town read nearly, his Ssbm and Dave reads change from green to black and his reasoning for Releo and AH are updated, given that there's only ~70 posts between his two reads posts I think this is a fairly natural amount of read changes to have in that time, people pushing that being a scum tell are being fairly unreasonable and not looking at how it transpired rather than just the posts. I think his D2 play has been poor in terms of activity but already gone into how that's not a scum indicator when it comes to TB. His vote on Alisea in isn't bad and his reaction towards the threat of hammer inside and actually come across as town. I very much think the way that AH entered the game was trying to push a weak mslynch to the forefront which I think TB classifies as. The traitor themselves have very little to gain from actually getting their partners lynched and while he changed his mind late into D1 re; "I wasn't actually trying to get him lynched" that's not how his play came across and that felt more like him trying to get TB mslynched in the following day. Really there's a lot that points towards TB being town here, he's even a stronger town read than what I have on Hans at the moment.
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Post Post #1115 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:00 am

Post by Regfan »

So, now that I've gone through TB tell me which arguments you think still stand making TB mafia.

The point about his reads is fairly bogus, his reads list progression inside his two reads lists was significantly better than what most people are painting it to be and ignoring the context of the read changes.

The point about AH's push on him making him more likely to be mafia is actually false, it's not impossible for traitors to do that but it happens significantly less likely then them just pushing mslynches; they hurt the scum team if they actually get a killing mafia lynched early on, especially when the mafia partner might actually have a role and his "I wasn't actually trying to get you lynched" comment was almost a week after he started it and he never unvoted ThingBig when stating that. That's him trying to paint ThingBig as mafia knowing there's a good chance that AH might get lynched himself. Also the suggestion that he was "signalling to TB" is a serious joke, that's not how it's done.

The point about his play throughout the last week being him "Openly wolfing" and that his prod-dodging is a scum-tell is confirmed not to be a scum tell for him, if you've looked he's been mslynched in just about half of his town games for people attempting to push that reasoning upon him, if anything he does it less inside his two scum games.

The point about ThingBigs arguments not being good or town motivated is something I strongly disagree with, I've liked his more than several other players.

So yeah, take it from me, ThingBig is town and absolutely not the person we should be lynching today.
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Post Post #1116 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:03 am

Post by Regfan »

This is where I'm currently at;

Town (S->W):
Realeo, ThingBig (Gap), Hans, Gamma
Scum (S->W)
: Dave

It's now 3am, going to go to bed and I'l get to the rest of the players in the morning.
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Post Post #1117 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:14 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

My vote is placed more for TB's actions than anything involving AH. Explain his awkward reads.
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Post Post #1118 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:21 am

Post by Regfan »

I don't consider his reads that awkward, I think him believing that there's some buddying going on between scum mates isn't an unreasonable stance to take. His read and reasoning on AH D1 was particularly good and his reassessment of Hans to move him from null->town was certainly good. I think people are blowing his reads list here way out of proportion and ignoring the fact the traitor flip means we absolutely should not be lynching TB today.

I've seen him be mslynched like this far too many times and the reasoning behind it here is particularly weak, like really really weak.
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Post Post #1119 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:25 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

You know what
I think I said something along the lines of Kop/SH scumteam at one point
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Post Post #1120 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:27 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 830, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 812, Superhans wrote:VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Carrying out SSBM's wishes. RIP. God bless her zombie bones :'(
hold up
In post 831, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 714, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:but yeah im onto something i think so if im not here to remind yall about kop in the morning please revisit his last few posts of the day, completely unacceptable imo. If Kop/AH are both town I think Gamma/Dave/Alisae
If Kop flips scum SH gets lynched no questions asked
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Post Post #1121 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:29 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 1113, Regfan wrote:
In post 1112, Realeo wrote:Can we discard this argument? Remember AH is traitor, so TB won't know if AH is also scum-sided.
The fact that AH is traitor and not mafia does change things to some degree but it's not something you entirely rule out. It's not a case of "X pushed on mafia therefore X is clear", it's a case of his argument for AH being scum had a lot of solid and logical points that suggests genuine scumhunting moreso than scum trying to push a mslynch. I'll comment on the rest of TB's posts including his read walls in ~30 minutes, going through his ISO now.
tbh I think I'll show consideration here
UNVOTE:
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Post Post #1122 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:30 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 1119, Gamma Emerald wrote:You know what
I think I said something along the lines of Kop/SH scumteam at one point
It would be a very amusing team given that AH may have actually called out to them halfway through but it's a very tin-foil type theory and wouldn't lynch anyone based on it, if one of them flip scum at any point in the game the other deserves a little more focus though. And yeah, I noticed the two posts you quoted above and am waiting for explanation from SH regarding his change of stance re; the NK's since it doesn't mesh.

Anyway actually going to sleep now.
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Post Post #1123 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:33 am

Post by Alisae »

Reg, are you suuuuuuuure that AH wasn't attempting to push another traitor? I don't remember TB having any attention on him at that point.
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Post Post #1124 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:49 am

Post by Regfan »

In post 1123, Alisae wrote:Reg, are you suuuuuuuure that AH wasn't attempting to push another traitor? I don't remember TB having any attention on him at that point.
I can guarantee you he wasn't trying to push another traitor. I think it's very unlikely he was trying to push another mafia partner, the only way that traitor can die inside this setup is via lynch effectively given their BP vest and the lack of doctor meaning that mafia are never going to night kill them. The only way that AH makes that play is if he is confident that TB won't get lynched on the back of it and if he thinks he himself will get lynched before TB to make TB look good. I don't think he'd be replacing into the game and instantly planning what would be optimal in his own demise and deciding to take the risk having a potentially rolled killing mafia die just to have that occur. If you notice even after the point where he stated "I wasn't trying to get you lynched" (Which was a week after trying to get him lynched) he continued voting and trying to lynch TB constantly decrediting all of TBs reads and play. It's much more likely here that TB is just town.
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