Mini 1869- camn's revenge GAME OVER!

[BTD6_maker]

Confirm.

It seems likely that Pine will first pick players that he has played with before or players he knows can play well as scum. (Pine was given the entire playerlist so it doesn't matter who the pre-/Ins are.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Mastina

It seems like you have played a lot of games with Pine. (I am completely ignoring posts made by Pine). At this early stage I would consider you marginally more likely to be scum.

[BTD6_maker]

Votes now matter, so this vote will now have genuine weight.

VOTE: Mastina

[BTD6_maker]

Pine, you do realise it is optimal for you to do nothing but prodge here. Every time you post we get more information/

Anyway, I still scumread Mastina, though very weakly. I will explain why later as I am busy now.

[BTD6_maker]

what's to stop him from using his scum picks to do his manipulation for him?

Explicitly they have.
This is self-evident by the thread.
If I am wrong on my townreads, then Pine made good picks in that regard because my townreads look town to me and me being wrong on them means I was successfully manipulated by them. (Keep in mind my townreads aren't based on Pine's picks, but on their play. Pine's picks just augment my suspicions.)
If I am right about my scumreads, then Pine made good picks in that regard because my scumreads are pulling stunts which to me are ridiculously manipulative and a large part of the basis behind my scumread. (For instance, our bipolar bear friend is townreading Aeronaut hard, for stuff that to me looks like Aeronaut posting shit meant to manipulate people like them into townreading him.)

Regardless of whether I am right, or wrong, Pine made picks who are good at manipulation.
If I am wrong, Pine made picks who hid their manipulation well, while making it look like they are town as a result of their manipulation.
If I am right, Pine made picks who I saw through their manipulation, but they still were in fact doing manipulation. I just saw through it.

Of course, realistically it's going to be a bit of column A and a bit of column B, but while I do indeed have thoughts on that, I'm momentarily keeping them to myself for the most part.

Pine uses SirCakes with giving the instructions to pocket me by giving me an early town read (by the way I'll admit I did like Cakes after he made that post, so in a sense it did work), which then will allow his scum team to have a town ally later down the road?

The problem with this is that while SirCakez might be a strong scum player in theory, in practice given this playerlist, he's not endgame material. Aside from Pine not having SirCakez experience that I could track down (Pine's picks), there's also SirCakez's play this game.

Everything SirCakez is doing is ridiculously scummy. And not scummy in a subtle way. Scummy in a very, very, very blatantly obvious way. So obvious, literally every player in the game pretty much can see why SirCakez could be scum, and a fair number of them do in fact think he's actually scum. But what SirCakez is doing isn't furthering a scum agenda. So he's not actually scum. When it comes to SirCakez, if he looks good but his posts look like they serve a scum agenda, he's scum. This game, he looks bad and there's no visible scum agenda, so he's town.

Wouldn't this be using the "too scummy to be scum" fallacy? If SirCakez is scum then what he is doing now has the overall effect of being Townread. If we start using "too scummy to be scum" then people may try to be too scummy to be scum to avoid being scumread by the people using "too scummy to be scum".

[BTD6_maker]

If we start using "too scummy to be scum" then people may try to be too scummy to be scum to avoid being scumread by the people using "too scummy to be scum".

We shouldn't be worried about affecting site meta as a whole during this game; we should just be worried about finding scum.

I was not talking about site meta. I mean that scum in this game may hide behind "too scummy to be scum" once someone mentions it.

If it is used once, it may affect what scum do later in the game that enables them to slip past the radar.

[BTD6_maker]

Sell us. Really. We're all ears.

I don't wanna.

When I want to sell something, you'll buy it.
But I explicitly am not feeling like selling you on Aeronaut being scum.

He is scum, yeah.
But I don't feel like explaining that right now. I don't feel like pushing him right now. Even though I could ask for you to just trust me (the read's strong enough where I can demand that), I don't feel like doing that right now. But I'll place my vote there anyway, until such a time where I do feel like giving you those things.

This post looks bad. If Mastina scumreads Aeronaut then the pro-Town thing to do would be to try to explain it. It is easy for scum to do this in order to defer giving reasoning because you know your reasoning will be under scrutiny.

I consider this likely as I myself did it in Open 642 and came under a lot of pressure for it.

[BTD6_maker]

....we're going in circles

Yes, and it's a closed circle, comprised of two binaries:
Pine either made wifom picks, or optimal picks. Binary number one.
We can either choose to enter the wifom game and try to figure out the above, or we can ignore the wifom game altogether. Binary number two.

If we enter the wifom game and try to figure out the first binary, I am telling you that Pine made the optimal picks.
If we choose to ignore the wifom game altogether, then I am telling you to assume Pine made the optimal picks, because that's what fucking ignoring the wifom game entails.

You can't go "but Pine could have picked the wifom picks!" without entering into the wifom game.
Ignoring the wifom game is therefore assuming...Pine picked the optimal picks.
But if you choose to enter into the wifom game...I am telling you the answer is Pine picked the optimal picks rather than the wifom picks.

So regardless of whether you enter into the wifom game, or whether you ignore the wifom game...the answer here is to assume...Pine picked the optimal choices.

Really not that hard to understand.

Your reasoning is flawed. It can be used to explain that it is more likely that Pine picked optimal picks but not guarantee it. What stops someone from entering the WIFOM game and then coming to the conclusion that Pine made WIFOM picks?

I can explain this using an analogy from the wiki:

When chasing down a dangerous criminal, a policeman comes to a fork in the road. To the left is a dark alleyway where the criminal would have a moderate chance of escaping (even if the cop correctly follows him that direction) (I am assuming 50% chance of getting caught here). To the right is a well-lit boulevard where the criminal would surely be caught. The policeman doesn't know which way the criminal went. If he guesses wrong, the criminal will easily make a clean getaway.
If you were the criminal, which way would you go?
If you were the policeman, which way would you guess the criminal went?

The correct answer is for the criminal to run through the alleyway 2/3 of the time and the boulevard 1/3 of the time and for the policeman to do the same.

Likewise, assuming Pine plays optimally, Pine should have a chance greater than random of making optimal picks (as, ignoring the fact that Pine drafted the team, optimal picks are more likely to win) but have a chance of making WIFOM picks.

(The other examples can be analysed similarly and give similar results, though the one about who to kill out of the innocent, lynchbait, and thinker is a false dichotimy - or in this case a trichotomy - that ignores the possibility that you No Kill).

[BTD6_maker]

When he went multiple days without posting actual content; on the days he wasn't V/LA.

Normally a meta read isn't the only tool to use on a player but Ari is one of those exceptions and this becomes apparently true as Ari admits it.

Now I'm waiting because I didn't honestly suspect a post from him.

Very scummy =/= confscum. I thought there was something I missed that made him confscum.

UNVOTE:

Like what? You just called him confscum and then unvoted on the same page. Where's the conviction?

I think my interaction with Monokuma reveals just how much they are reaching for reasons that I'm scum and twisting things.

Nacho has laid that out pretty clearly and so have I.

What the fuck 4-5 pages are Y OU reading Prism?

And this reaction is pretty awful.

I am reading the posts by Gin on this page.

[BTD6_maker]

At this point we know Ari is 100% scum. There is no need not to vote this guy up. Mastin is town simple as that.

Look, Mastin is one of those that you require to use over half of the entire tool belt to lynch and those tools can't be used until flips have been made later down the road. That's what you get for being experienced as scum. However it's pretty clear she'll be killed N1 or N2, after that, it's worth taking into consideration...

I simply don't understand the value of going on a possible mislynch over a conf!scum lynch.

Again, no explanation for Ari being 100% scum. Also, you claim Mastina is Town purely because she is hard to lynch. This is faulty logic and does not clear anyone. Mastina is being wagoned. Some wagons lead to a lynch; some don't. It is possible to consistently avoid lynches even with a wagon. Also, I am doubting whether what you say is actually true about Mastina. Provide evidence.

In short, Ari is not confscum and this reasoning is terrible. On Day 1 we only have one guaranteed confscum, and that's Pine.

When he went multiple days without posting actual content; on the days he wasn't V/LA.

Normally a meta read isn't the only tool to use on a player but Ari is one of those exceptions and this becomes apparently true as Ari admits it.

Now I'm waiting because I didn't honestly suspect a post from him.

You claimed Ari was 100% confscum. Not posting much for some time may make someone

slightly

more likely to be scum, but nowhere near obvscum, let alone confscum (which can generally only be attained through Cops or similar investigatives). Also, you are claiming Ari can be read entirely through meta. I doubt there is anyone who can be read instantly through meta alone. Meta may help somewhat, but it is generally weaker than actually examining posts for scummy content (not just lack of content).

UNVOTE:

And again, you unvote a "confscum".

(

[BTD6_maker]

I meant to say:

(I still find Mastina scummier at the moment in general, but this is also one of my scumreads. It seems likely that Gin and Mastina are scumbuddies).

[BTD6_maker]

First off, Pisskop was the beginning slot, he started out the game and continued the pattern of fluffing and frivolous shit posting. When he did post, there wasn't reasoning attached to it, all of them were baseless and were said to just be said.

It also doesn't help that the slot replacement, Ari can't play scum to save his life, in essence making it a suicide slot. The quotes I put in a spoiler, and really they are all his ISO, is literally no game contribution and doesn't address anyone game related.

Also a quick VCA is that scum will disperse their votes to hide in the crowd, so there will be 1/2 in the main wagons and 1/2 in a slot that's been voted once or they are the only vote. Now, looking at the babywagons that happened in D1, the beginning started with dreal and Fate.

Looking at that, Pisskop gave a weak reason which was really a hesitant question more than accusation and put his vote on dreal. The vote only moved from dreal to Fate and this occurred when Pisskop said, Fate was his top scum read, but again, there was no explanation attached to it, essentially making it a naked vote because it is knowingly implied that if you vote someone, it is because you think they are scum.

I am almost 100% confident that Pisskop has been staying off of the main wagons to avoid any serious attention and shitpost so you think to just ignore him.

VOTE: Aristophanes

This is your only Ari case in the last few pages. I can list your main points:

-Pisskop posting little content. This is not something which makes someone obvscum. In fact, Pisskop was probably posting little content because he didn't have time for this game, which is why he replaced.
-Ari being allegedly bad as scum. You could say that Ari is scummier as scum, but that is meta. Meta is not useless, but it cannot make someone obvTown or obvscum.
-The VCA. VCA is generally unreliable (though possible, it is very weak) in Day 1 with no flips at all.
-Pisskop giving next to no explanation for moving votes. I can see your point and this could add to a scumread, but this does not make someone obvscum. Even added together, these points may make someone a weak to moderate scumread, but not obvscum and definitely not confscum. (Unless you are a Day Cop, but I highly doubt that)

PEdit: I have addressed these points in this post.

[BTD6_maker]

I look at posts and then focus on the ones I have something to say about. In this case, it was SirCakez' vote, which led me to analyse your posts.

It is not tunnel vision on Mastina. She has posted a lot of content and I found that I had something to say about them and analysed them to come to the conclusion that Mastina was scummy. My initial vote on Mastina was a pre-game vote, practically RVS. I kept the vote after I found what I considered to be genuine scumminess.

[BTD6_maker]

First off, Pisskop was the beginning slot, he started out the game and continued the pattern of fluffing and frivolous shit posting. When he did post, there wasn't reasoning attached to it, all of them were baseless and were said to just be said.

It also doesn't help that the slot replacement, Ari can't play scum to save his life, in essence making it a suicide slot. The quotes I put in a spoiler, and really they are all his ISO, is literally no game contribution and doesn't address anyone game related.

Also a quick VCA is that scum will disperse their votes to hide in the crowd, so there will be 1/2 in the main wagons and 1/2 in a slot that's been voted once or they are the only vote. Now, looking at the babywagons that happened in D1, the beginning started with dreal and Fate.

Looking at that, Pisskop gave a weak reason which was really a hesitant question more than accusation and put his vote on dreal. The vote only moved from dreal to Fate and this occurred when Pisskop said, Fate was his top scum read, but again, there was no explanation attached to it, essentially making it a naked vote because it is knowingly implied that if you vote someone, it is because you think they are scum.

I am almost 100% confident that Pisskop has been staying off of the main wagons to avoid any serious attention and shitpost so you think to just ignore him.

VOTE: Aristophanes

This is your only Ari case in the last few pages. I can list your main points:

-Pisskop posting little content. This is not something which makes someone obvscum. In fact, Pisskop was probably posting little content because he didn't have time for this game, which is why he replaced.
-Ari being allegedly bad as scum. You could say that Ari is scummier as scum, but that is meta. Meta is not useless, but it cannot make someone obvTown or obvscum.
-The VCA. VCA is generally unreliable (though possible, it is very weak) in Day 1 with no flips at all.
-Pisskop giving next to no explanation for moving votes. I can see your point and this could add to a scumread, but this does not make someone obvscum. Even added together, these points may make someone a weak to moderate scumread, but not obvscum and definitely not confscum. (Unless you are a Day Cop, but I highly doubt that)

PEdit: I have addressed these points in this post.

-Posting little content is a term called "fluffing." I never said that just fluffing made Pisskop obv!scum, just like any valid case, it is one small part in the big picture.

-Ari isn't "allegedly bad as scum." The quote below is confirmation by the accused that what I am saying is true. Arguing that this is not true is ignorance of the facts.

Ari can't play scum to save his life

Sad but true.
However, I hadn't read, like, any of the game yet and am doing that now. Get back to me after I catch up a bit and see how you feel. Okay?

-The VCA is a tool, in which used correctly, will not be damning by itself, BUT, included in the analysis of a player and finding other reasons as to why he is scummy, it is valid reasoning.

-You said "could add to a scumread." This is exactly what it's doing as it's strengthens the case against Pisskop.

All these points listed by themselves mean very little, however when you take everything together, you have a slam dunk case on to why someone is scum to the point where I'm that confident in it that it couldn't possibly be a town slot.

It's only saving grace right now is that I respect Ari and he said he would read the thread, if he can't produce content within a day or two(which is enough time to catch up), there will be nothing stopping me from parking my vote as that is the final nail on the coffin.

I explicitly acknowledged that you have several reasons. Even taken together, these do not make someone obvscum, let alone confscum. You need stronger evidence for that. It is not a "slam dunk" case, it is a moderate case at best.

Also, you might say Ari is bad as scum. Ari himself might say that. Now look at his W/L record as scum on the wiki. You are probably assuming he is completely hopeless as scum and will lose practically all the time. This is false. He has a decent win rate as scum. You are both probably confirmation biased on that point (remembering scum losses rather than wins).

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: TheRealGinNTonic

This is my next scumread after Mastina.

Is Mastina confirmable? I do not know for sure. If Mastina is scum, it would be trivial to claim to recruit a partner. We should wait for a while until Day 2 or 3 (probably 3) and seeing if Mastina dies or not (although scum may gambit by not killing Mastina). For now, I think I will let Mastina live.

Vaxkiller, I may be willing to vote Fate but first can you please give a summary of your case on Fate?

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: TheRealGinNTonic

This is my next scumread after Mastina.

Is Mastina confirmable? I do not know for sure. If Mastina is scum, it would be trivial to claim to recruit a partner. We should wait for a while until Day 2 or 3 (probably 3) and seeing if Mastina dies or not (although scum may gambit by not killing Mastina). For now, I think I will let Mastina live.

Vaxkiller, I may be willing to vote Fate but first can you please give a summary of your case on Fate?

Explain your scumread; don't be slippery and run away.

I did, from 1055 to 1225.

[BTD6_maker]

it would be trivial to claim to recruit a partner.

Claiming a partner makes the pair lovers; which means if someone catches Mastina, they both die. Alternatively, if someone catches Mastina's partner, they also both die. That's not trivial as much as it is really fucking stupid.

Am I missing something? If Mastina targets someone they will become Masons, not Lovers.

[BTD6_maker]

We should in theory find out whether they are actually Town. However, chances are most people will simply trust Mastina so neither will be caught.

[BTD6_maker]

I've been reading up on the 20+ page catchup. Firstly, it seems that everyone read a lot into the "jam session" to the point of forming a Townbloc. A Townbloc of this size is almost certain to contain scum even ignoring my own personal reads on the matter. Also, there is nothing that scum could not fake in principle (barring the obviou stuff like certain types of PR claims). People are willing to lock in on a Townbloc this early, which worries me.

Anyway, I will ISO SAJ and Katsuki.

[BTD6_maker]

Mod, I am V/LA until the 4th of February. Real Life is getting busy. I should still be able to post, just not as often.

[BTD6_maker]

BTD6 I respect your playing style but if your regular amount of posting is 0.75% of the game's posts, and only 6-7 of those really say much, and you've got to post even less than that from here on out, it's probably time to replace out. I hope your real life calms down soon.

You are assuming everyone else is posting at the normal amount. With this game it seems that the majority of people are also posting far too much. Over 100 pages in Day 1?

Anyway, does anyone have an actual case that what I did is AI and more likely to be done by scum? I don't see any. This wagon is pointless.

[BTD6_maker]

Yet again no case.

If you are voting me, please provide a case now.

(Please wait if I am at L-1.)

[BTD6_maker]

I am not "a slot we can lose". That is no case. We do not need to lynch alleged "slots we can lose". We need to lynch slots likely to be scum.

[BTD6_maker]

Time to stop any chances of my deadline lynch happening when I am offline.

I am a Town Delayed Eavesdropper. On Night 1 I can target someone. On Night 2 I will then be able to read a post they made in the PT (if they have any). The post will, for obvious reasons, possibly be partially redacted.

I am hoping that anyone I pick will, if they have a PT, be scum. For that, I have to make sure that I do not pick Mastina's target.
Mastina, can you list a few players you might be targeting (and then pick one)?

And yes, Town was unlucky enough to wagon three PRs in Day 1.

[BTD6_maker]

I only see one post on Night 2, and it's the first they make that night.

[BTD6_maker]

I can target anyone else tonight (other than Pine). My role is delayed, though.

[BTD6_maker]

In actual fact, my role was exactly as Gin described. I can use it any day.

I will be lynched today. That is fine with me. Pine chose one Town role. Thus Pine would almost certainly tell the scumteam which role he chose. This is how Gin knows the specifics of my role. Lynch me today. After my flip, Gin is confscum and tomorrow's lynch.

[BTD6_maker]

Can everyone agree to lynch Gin after my flip?