Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Dierfire]

I've finished reading Flubbernugget once but I don't know if I have another two-hour writing stint in me tonight.

The main thing that stands out to me is that Flubbernugget has minimal interactions with several players. These largely seem to be players whom Flubbernugget reads as Town (I Am Innocent, culted, Aj The Epic, me). Most interactions that do exist are reactive; Flubbernugget answers more questions than he asks. Some of the interactions that do exist with those players seem like unlikely interactions to stage with Mafia partner, though the overall low density makes it difficult to be confident in that.

I think that we have a little over 60 hours left. I'm going to wait just another 24 hours or so to see whether Flubbernugget returns with material that will help my read (claim included). If nothing materializes before then, I'll do what I can with what we have (either way I will at least want to look in more detail at interactions between Flubbernugget and Kairal).

I'm not really sure where the VC stands now.

[Kairal]

Currently I am at 3 I believe. massive culted and AJ. Flubber at 1 from my vote. I don't believe anyone else is voting.

Anywho if I get one more I'll probably just self-hammer. None of you are going to see what is in front of you until I flip so no point dragging it out. You can have fun with Lylo without me.

[BlackVoid]

Hi. Please don't end the day until I catch up. Current thoughts are that Massive is almost certainly town unless Flubber is a PR. I think just one odd-night cop and a JK is too little power (but I made a gross setup error in mhsmith's Mini Normal so IAI, correct me on this if I'm blatantly wrong). Kairal and Dierfire are my next strongest townreads. Not so sure on Flubber anymore. Starting page twenty-seven. Hopefully, I'll get through D1 tonight and the rest tomorrow and post my thoughts then. Off the top of my head, AJ and Culted look the worst to me so I'll probably support wagons there. Not sure on Naomi either. I thought Shadow was surely scum for that replace out but he also replaced out in a recent game as town so that's not alignment-indicative.

[Kairal]

Or... maybe someone can see it? Feeling more optimistic now. If you won't listen to me at least listen to the definitely town guy.

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah he hasn't gotten to the jin lynch.

[Kairal]

Eh it's not like there's even any good reason for me to lynch Jin as scum. Yeah it was hasty- however he'd already claimed. There was enough suspicion that he was bound to get lynched anyway. Interestingly I think you said the same before... I wonder if you have some kind of ulterior motive that would lead you to change your mind on this? Naaaaaah surely not.

[Kairal]

I can't help but notice that Flub and Aj are doing exactly what Io (tacitly) predicted they would be doing. As much as I still think massive is scum, I can't keep that mindset from yesterday and expect to be correct this time after I was already wrong about Io. I seriously need to reread some ISOs, like culted, Aj and maybe IaI in particular.

Kairal, please don't ignore dead townies' reads and continue your conviction from earlier. I noticed it's a thing you tend to do, and I think you should try to break that habit. Case in point: Open 656, I correctly named 2 of the 3 scum, who everyone else thought were town, on Day 1. I was killed night 1 and it's like everyone totally forgot I ever existed and let the scum live until lylo. NJAC did that, too: he named 1 scum, ended up lynched by that scum, and town forgot about him.

Please don't make the same mistake.

Hmm I didn't pay much attention to this at the time. The mention of Flubber and AJ was interesting though. Gonna take a look and see what Io post she's referring to.

[Kairal]

Yeah still feeling AJ, Flubber, and Culted. Maybe not Culted, but Culted it probably the most likely other person that could be scum.
I think I believe Newman's claim.

Hmm Io had this... was she secretly on point the whole time? This is exactly the scum team I'm currently thinking- even down to the uncertainty on culted

[Kairal]

I can't find what exactly Mini is talking about though. Io doesn't seem to make any predictions about their behaviour.

[Aj The Epic]

Io picked names out of a hat for pre-flip associations with me. Was lynched because of these reads being so dreadful and her inconsistency in where she got them from. She included MDS over flubber fwiw

[Kairal]

I quoted the post right there. That's the latest post she has covering reads no? Where are you getting the included Mini thing?

[Kairal]

Anyway it is only Day 1 reads. I just thought it was interesting that she seems to have been right. I guess it's more of a topic for post game.

[Kairal]

Didn't even see the other 2 pages.
While the argument from Grey is a bit of a stretch and heavily relies on Shadow being scum I think he is town from that. The structure of his points doesn't really ping me as trying to make a quick push and if anything if he were scum I don't see why he would have waited until after Cloud replaces to make that kind of a push. It's town orientated.
Mini is also probably town from the way she handled the vote on her and opposition to the Cloud accusation was reasonable.

Aj the Rubic, why are you scumreading Io btw? I looked through your posts but you never actually mentioned that until now.

Some of it is OMGUS at face value but the unexplained vote on me wasn't good, especially considering she had explained her position on other wagons far more clearly. Dierfire more or less explained it earlier, but it was a vote that made no sense given the post she made it in had other stronger scumreads.

At the time it was between you and Grey, but Grey now looks town so you're down to my only current scum read.

Pretty confident in Newman, Grey, and kai being town.
To lesser extent Shadow and Massive.

Hmm. You said she had bad reads and got lynched for it.

I was right there with you pushing her so it's not like I disagreed at the time. However a lot of these are really quite good.

Specifically that last post we all know she's right about Newman and Grey, Most of us agree she's right about massive, I know she's right about me and I think there's a good chance she's right about Shadow/Naomi too.

Maybe we're having so much trouble because we lynched the only person with good reads.

She was throwing shade at Mini for a while before she decided she was town. Other than that though seems to have been spot on. If you're reading this Io sorry for doubting you. I guess you can have a good gloat post game at least.

[Kairal]

I can't help but notice that Flub and Aj are doing exactly what Io (tacitly) predicted they would be doing. As much as I still think massive is scum, I can't keep that mindset from yesterday and expect to be correct this time after I was already wrong about Io. I seriously need to reread some ISOs, like culted, Aj and maybe IaI in particular.

You realize her suspect list was not only bad, but included you, not IaI.

Io picked names out of a hat for pre-flip associations with me. Was lynched because of these reads being so dreadful and her inconsistency in where she got them from.

She included MDS over flubber fwiw

Interesting to me (and by interesting I mean extremely scummy) that Aj misrepresents Io's reads in both of these posts. I figure he noticed she was dead on so felt the need to misrep her views later on. As my previous quote notes her actual position at the time of lynch is Flubber Aj and maybe culted.

[Kairal]

Anyway I guess what I'm saying is when I get lynched trust not just in my reads but in Io's.

[Naomi-Tan]

Btw how DID flubber end up claiming last?

Do you think there late claiming is indicative of alignment.

No, it's kinda a failure on the town to not call it earlier. Not that I really expected anything but VT claims with what roles had been revealed. If we had another PR, it was going to end up being a 1v1 with massive.

So why did you bring something up if you didn't think it mattered to determine the alignment of flubbs?

[I Am Innocent]

Yeah I'm just not seeing scum Kairal in these recent posts.

Kairal, how about you move to culted? Curious to see if Dier even considers it...was on his 2nd tier scum list (prior to the massive claim/mini clear) which should make culted a 2nd/3rd choice for dier post claim, tho dier continues to forget mentioning a culted possibility as a lynch candidate today

[I Am Innocent]

Anywho if I get one more I'll probably just self-hammer.

Not threatening you cause I've been reported on stuff like this in the past....but just a word of caution....there are some players who blacklist other players for self hammering when town. So if you do this and your town, you might get blacklisted....not saying I'm in that group that would blacklist you, because, you know, reporting and stuff.

[Flubbernugget]

Iai I am interested as to why you see Karai as town because right now they are literally saying stuff discrediting it and then play plopping a vote out with all of 0 commitment.

With threats of self hammering I withold my vote until blackstar catches up

Also I am VT

[I Am Innocent]

I've never seen scum vote hop the way kairal has this game. Scum tend to be more careful and calculated with their votes.

[I Am Innocent]

vote hop & reads changing daily, no make that hourly like kairal has this game.

[I Am Innocent]

Iai I am interested as to why you see Karai as town because right now they are literally saying stuff discrediting it and then play plopping a vote out with all of 0 commitment.

With threats of self hammering I withold my vote until blackstar catches up

Also I am VT

Not that I'm encouraging you to vote kairal with that looming threat, but if that is where your vote is headed, you must read kairal as scum so why would you 1) believe scum kairal to self hammer and 2) care if scum kairal self hammered?

[I Am Innocent]

Right now the votes are:

Kairal 3 (massive, culted, AJ)
Flubber 1 (kairal)
culted 1 (IAI)

I know I'm town, so if kairal is scum, where are all the counter wagons? Reason # X + a lot why I think Kairal is not likely scum.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, so I've finished the first forty pages. Going to read up on the rest today. With Flubber's claim, it's all but assured that Massive is town. I don't think odd-night cop + JK is sufficient power at all.

I don't want to lynch Kairal. I agree that his changing votes every few hours is pretty town. I don't want to lynch IAI today either. I'm not sure about anyone else but my current lynchlist is Culted > AJ > Flubber.

@IAI - would you mind going more in-depth into your Cloudkicker townread? I remember we were both wrong on him before so I want to know where it was coming from.

my recollection and limited review of previous games supports the idea that Shadow_step is no less active as Mafia than as Town.

What are you basing this off of? In Podoboq's game, he was incredibly active and pushing things a lot before he replaced out. That has not been my impression at all.

[I Am Innocent]

Okay, so I've finished the first forty pages. Going to read up on the rest today. With Flubber's claim, it's all but assured that Massive is town. I don't think odd-night cop + JK is sufficient power at all.

I don't want to lynch Kairal. I agree that his changing votes every few hours is pretty town. I don't want to lynch IAI today either. I'm not sure about anyone else but my current lynchlist is Culted > AJ > Flubber.

@IAI - would you mind going more in-depth into your Cloudkicker townread? I remember we were both wrong on him before so I want to know where it was coming from.

my recollection and limited review of previous games supports the idea that Shadow_step is no less active as Mafia than as Town.

What are you basing this off of? In Podoboq's game, he was incredibly active and pushing things a lot before he replaced out. That has not been my impression at all.

Cloudkicker was all goofy that game, flirting with Maria, not taking things seriously. This game he seemed more confrontational.

I know we probably shouldn't put much stock into it, but the force replace out was very weird. For a while I wondered if Cloud and Mini were masons, possibly scummates. But massive cleared your predecessors slot, so why would a mod force replace cloud for playing against his win con for refusing to move his vote from town if he was scum? Doesn't line up. So unless massive is lying or you are a Godfather, I can't see cloud's slot as being scum.

I also think as crazy as Naomi's catch up has been, it feels town to me.