In post 2578, xSoniaNevermindx wrote:sigh is that really the best you had?
That was slightly boring and a bit tedious I was expecting more of a challenge.
Those posts were actually quite good. You didn't respond well.
Sure josh did a 180
You just avoided discussing and hid in the background
Never said the points were bad it was fun to answer.
I just expected more
I'm at L minus one if I'm not mistaken
The longer you stare at something the more out of focus it becomes
Well if the event I do get hammered I suggest looking in Gamma/Ari unless you really do have that strong a read against the other but I think I'm right on this one.
The longer you stare at something the more out of focus it becomes
Please don't hammer right away. Let's take our time and make sure we get this lynch right.
@ Sonia
Between Gamma and Ari, who do you think is more likely to flip mafia? I've heard your suspicions of both players, but not which read you thought was stronger.
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I'd say Gamma I feel quite strongly on it.
I think a lot of the sr is just an irk for my playstyle and I'm not gonna change that so nothing I can really do on that.
I thought using less rage would make me more approachable and in turn less lynchable guess I was wrong.
The longer you stare at something the more out of focus it becomes
I'll reread your answers again at work tomorrow. I just didn't really see anything convincing
Ari is most likely off the table.
Gamma I don't think is scum either.
Lack of interactions between scum and creeeps/Sonia is interesting. Fitz attacking gamma when he was going after creeps and giving up on me was also note worthy
In post 2577, xSoniaNevermindx wrote:1)A lot of your comments on me are "void of analysis" I dislike explaining a lot of my thinking I don't really know if it's because it's from the site I play on or I am just lazy let us lean torwards the first one giving giant cases on why I think someone is scum is quite boring to me if I find something I dislike I say why and vote it simple
onto the 2nd!
I completely disagree with your assessment here, 2565 & 2566
I feel she makes a lot of good points on why you should be looked at as scum. This response is just a broad stroke trying to downplay it when he brings up a lot of good points. You definitely checked out.
so while Josh was pushing hard against emp, you kind of did something worse. Good or bad, right or wrong Josh took a hard stance. i didn't really see you do that as much and you didn't really want to commit to a vote.
In post 2577, xSoniaNevermindx wrote:2) It's not me throwing sus on twoface at all it's more of a "I can't read you very well" It's not finger pointing what so ever I don't know how you got that from that post but it's okay to be wrong
This is just a bad post because anyone who is town and doesn't read me as near confirmed town at this point either isn't reading the game or is plain stupid. You seemed to have a higher town read on josh for some reason which really makes no sense from a town pov. doesn't really make sense from a scum pov either though. so I guess this is just stupidity.
In post 2577, xSoniaNevermindx wrote:3) You clearly missed the part where I said I was trying to be vague the thing I was waiting for was for Gamma to vote because at that point there were a few places he could jump on and I wanted to see where he would go I think it would've helped my read on him a lot I also was going V/LA because I was going on a trip and I left before I place my vote the thing is you're right I didn't place my vote but you really think me not voting mafia is scummy? How so I mean I did try and get emp lynched the day before (not that hard mind you but still) knowing my scum play I would've prob bussed EMP at that point but that's self meta that really is just wifom I think the point I'm trying to make is why is it scummy that I didn't vote emp and wanted gamma instead?
Sorry Vague should never be a town trait. Town should be transparent as possible. So the fact you were being vague on purpose is scummy. Your reasoning for why you were vague wasn't even a good one imo. Gamma was not the fish to be fried the previous day phase, fitz's push on him should have made him more clear than others imo. you voting emp and then hopping off for bad reasoning doesn't earn you town points.
In post 2578, xSoniaNevermindx wrote:sigh is that really the best you had?
That was slightly boring and a bit tedious I was expecting more of a challenge.
this is a bad post because like I said, your response to hap's posts weren't very good.
Right now scum is in you or hap. i can't figure out which one I think is scummier.
hard pushing against the person that was an earlier strong scum read and them flipping scum
or
doing nothing at all with regards to lynching scum
I don't think Ari is scum because he joined emp when he could have easily joined gamma
gamma got pushed by fitz after he joined the creeps wagon. so I don't think gamma is scum and kind of leans me towards creeps being scum.
looking at the wagon when creeps was L-1, I think every single person on that wagon was town with the exception of 2 alive and both of those 2 look pretty townie compared to the other 2.
Aris has a very large sample of town and mafia games. He is consistently FAR less active and FAR in his mafia games.
The sample size makes this extremely compelling.
This would be an extreme deviation in play for scum-Aris.
On balance, I think Gamma is town.
Some points in favor of "Town-Gamma":
He was pushed by Fitz at some point early in the game. The case that Fitz seemed like he was trying to lynch low-hanging town fruit, and not bussing a teammate.
He seems pretty fearless and straightforward. At every point in his filter, it is always pretty clear who he's reading and where he stands.
Fitz and Vedith (two mafia) are voting him on D1 with less than 24 hours to go in the day. This is also during the huge vote-swing to Fitz at the end of the cycle.
Some things in favor of "Mafia-Gamma" include:
A pretty sharp activity drop-off in the past few cycles.
A very strange start to D5, in which he calls my slot townie, suggests lynching TwoFace, and wants to lynch Aris.
Constantly calling himself "confirmed town" when nothing of the sort confirms him.
Independent of my analysis on Sonia, I think Gamma's play is more likely town than mafia. I think the points against Gamma are non-allignemnt indicative. Vedith and Fitz pushing Gamma at the end of D1 is very compelling evidence in his favor.
Sonia is the most likely mafia candidate.
I've said all I need to say in the wall of texts. Her D4 play is very mafia-oriented. Her responses have done nothing to convince me otherwise.
I also think there is a very compelling association case to be made between her and EMP.
EMP avoids doing analysis on her at all, like sheeping Nacho's "slight town read" on Sonia. (Link)
In particular, EMP rails against Josh for "active lurking", but excuses Sonia for doing the exact same thing. (Link)
Sonia does put EMP at L-1 on D3, but it reads like a very half-hearted push. I would read her ISO from #91 to #106:
She very half-heartedly pushes EMP, asking him a lot of easier questions.
She openly says multiple times that she'd rather be lynching into Gamma/AJ
She jumps onto Gamma right after that and starts pushing him much harder.
This association might be individually excusable. However combined with her unnatural strong town read on my slot, as well as her non-committal fence-sitting stance on D4, I think she is the last mafia.
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still can't get over the weird 180 from josh and the out of the blue replacement (which btw the last time I saw one under this account, I am pretty sure that was scum)
but hap makes some valid points also.
I think scum is definitely in this grouping.
if scum isn't, then i'd lean gamma.
if aris is scum, he deserves the win cause that was a well timed buss for town cred when it wasn't necessary
There's not much I can do to defend Josh. He looks pretty bad. I could try to look through Josh's filter and defend our slot, but I think that just isn't a credible line of argument.
In my own defense, I'll make three points:
1) Josh's D4 looks bad. However, what else in his filter looks bad? If you look at Josh's whole filter, I think you'll see someone that is town, but made some pretty poor decisions on D4. Bad Play =/= Mafia. Inconsistent Play =/= Mafia.
2) Sonia by contrast, has been consistently suspicious since she replaced in. I would recommend looking at her actions in the lynch on D2, where she waffles about and doesn't seem to care much about who gets lynched between two townies. On D3, she half-heartedly pushes EMP while looking for any excuse to direct the lynch elsewhere. I've talked about D4 in great detail. As you talked about above, her D5 hasn't been pretty.
3) Compare my contributions today to what Sonia is doing. I'm active, I'm contributing, and I'm doing my best to remain objective. Compare this to Sonia's defense... she is basically saying that being more useful to town is boring, and that she will not change her playstyle.
I'll be around to answer questions. I will put the effort into demonstrating my towni-ness if I am given the opportunity today.
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In post 2614, xSoniaNevermindx wrote:I'm sick so putting up a giant defense again doesn't feel needed when my lynch is most likely the best for the town
*shrug* VOTE: Gamma
Almost everyone is saying gamma probably isn't scum. So why are you pushing gamma scum?
still can't get over the weird 180 from josh and the out of the blue replacement (which btw the last time I saw one under this account, I am pretty sure that was scum)
To comment on this quickly...
1) I don't think the replacement is alignment indicative at all. On this site, i have replaced out as both town and mafia before in circumstances like these. Sometimes, life just gets in the way and you don't feel like telling the world about it.
2) On the "weird 180"... it was definitely weird and bad, but was it really suspicious? I'd argue that it was weird and bad for
both
maifa-Josh and town-Josh. I know I said earlier I would defend Josh, but eh...
Quotes are in spoilers, commentary above spoilers. This is my understanding of what Josh did yesterday:
1) Josh is suspicious of EMP throughout D3, and only does not vote him because of "Nacho's request" to consolidate on AJ.
Spoiler:
In post 2265, Joshz wrote:I'm very sure Empking is scum. However, since we are ignoring it for now at nachos request
Unvote and VOTE: aj
2) Josh narrows down the lynch to Gamma/EMP early on D4, and votes Gamma.
Spoiler:
In post 2334, Joshz wrote:both are individually my biggest scumreads but i /doubt/ theyre both scum together.
if emp flips scum i think gamma or you are partner. if gamma flips scum i think emp or MAYBE (unlikely) twoface are partner. aristo is the oddball; im excluding him on nacho's stance + that there are two significantly better lyncehs rn.
emp is my bigger sr but gamma flip seems more useful and id really rather respect aj and hiraki's wishes and get the lynch off, i imagine theyd be quite annoyed in postgame if they tried getting us to lynch gamma all game, we didnt, and gamma won as scum. the flip side is emp might just go back to tunnelling me and twoface and being all around anti-town and annoying.
overall stance: neutral rn. i think the lynch is in gamma and king forsure though.
I understand this doesn't make much sense as town.
However, how does it make sense as mafia?
Hypothetical mafia-Josh is narrowing down the lynch to a townie (Gamma) and his mafia buddy (EMP). Even if he succeeds in his objective of lynching Gamma, it is not like the mafia team wins by lynching Gamma. By contrast, he has already committed himself to lynching EMP the following day, and looking extremely super-duper suspicious after EMP flips red.
As mafia, Josh would be taking a horrific gamble for no reason. It is a coinflip between:
1) Gamma gets lynched. Josh has committed himself to lynching EMP, who's flip will make him look horrible. Josh would have to literally 180 on his EMP read to give mafia a chance to win.
2) EMP gets lynched. Josh looks bad.
How does this plan make any sense as mafia? Josh just makes a stupid play that makes him look suspicious regardless.
When you compare this to Sonia, Sonia is actively trying to play both sides and hide. She avoiding commitments that could give her trouble down the road. Josh is doing the exact opposite, and his play seems borderline suicidal for Mafia here.
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Furthermore, look at some of the interactions between EMP and Josh. Does that D3 look like mafia on mafia action? EMP comes in, and the first thing he does is rail against his only other scumbuddy?
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Mafia want to hide, cover their tracks, and avoid attention. Josh's behavior this game has been confrontational, committal, and attention seeking. This makes more sense from the perspective of a townie doing something dumb (i.e. Josh becoming increasingly suspicious of Gamma on D3) as opposed to mafia Josh making some crazy attention-seeking play with a temporary upside and long-term disastrous consequences.
The point of all this, is if something is stupid as both alignments, it is stupid and non-alignment indicative. Not a single person in this thread has made that Josh is mafia for reasons outside of his D4 spazz.
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To me it's one or the other. I honestly didn't think a replacement could convince me but hap did give food for thought and I find myself agreeing with his points. Sonia reallyhasnt put forth the same sort of effort so being wrong here isn't a total loss.
