Mini Normal 1862 - Town win.


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Post Post #46 (isolation #0) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:48 am

Post by Asphodel »

Hi everyone! My last game ended in June and I don't think I've ever played with anyone in this game before. So I should probably introduce myself. I began playing mafia (werewolf) on a smaller site, and am far more used to playing under that's site's rules. Those rules included almost exclusively out of topic communication and also day phases that last approximately 48 hours long.

Self-meta-ing a little bit from my games on the other site, I very rarely, if ever try to push for my partners to be lynched as scum. That's for a few reasons. It was a pretty tight-knit group over there, and there was no cardflip in many of the games. Like, over a span of 20 or so scum games, I remember the single time I voted for a scum partner, and even that doesn't really count because my partner made a really terrible counterclaim. That's not to say I never scumread my partners, I just avoided seriously putting my vote on them because 48 hours is not a very long time.

I have been town in every game I've played on this site, so I'm unsure if this would be different under these rules. I imagine it might. I'm still probably going to use this as proof I'm town if I ever vote someone who flips scum though. I've only completed two games here, and they went pretty differently.

In my first game, I was a Town Cop. I locked onto someone who I thought was scum Day 1 and went after them pretty much the whole day. I think I confirmation-biased them pretty hard since the most important thing I remember about them is that I didn't enjoy playing with them. The person I scumread Day 1 ended up being the doctor and we lynched 1 of 2 scum Day 1. I found the other scum Night 2, so the game ended pretty soon after that.

In my most recent game, I was one of a few weak town bodyguards. After being forced to claim and then floundering for a lot of Day 1, I ended up pushing through a lynch on a VT. I never really got another solid scumread the rest of the game. As a result, I kept on rereading the thread and people moved up and down my suspicion list pretty randomly. I think some people scumread me for that, though if I had to guess that's probably a townread for me.
In post 8, Naomi-Tan wrote:Okay so onto the bulk of stuff. My playstyle Is kinda weird. I don't like dying as either alignment and try to stay alive. this means that sometimes I do actions to just look more green and sometimes and Im suspectable to peer pressure. To midigate this I tend to play entirely openly and honestly examining things and doing what I can to contribute to town. But things like Lamist actions are things I tend to do as both alignments. If anyone wants to read my town meta feel free to explore my wiki page (ordered chronologically with my most recent games at the bottom of either list) But this is a quick overview to protect my butt from future Red efforts (as they can push me on; Look there doing that thing thats normally red but isn't for them) and so Greens don't push me for being me. I also am probably forgetting somethings. As i'm sleepy
Can you give us a quick summary of what I might find reading through 11 games? Also what are Lamist actions?
In post 29, XnadrojX wrote:
I will extend 48 hours if enough people vote for it.


I can switch to this colour if enough people vote for it.
I vote for the extension. I'm neutral on the color choice.
In post 34, Human Sequencer wrote:Let's please not get an extension.
I like the darker green.

I take that back, Gamma isn't 'probably town'.
Why would town want less time?
VOTE: Human Sequencer

Also I know you're not reading Gamma town now, but why were you in the first place and what made you change your mind?

I'm going back to sleep, but I'm super excited for this game. See you in a few hours!
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Post Post #131 (isolation #1) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:25 am

Post by Asphodel »

Gamma: I read the first 5 pages of that game and I'm not sure what I'm supposed to have gotten from it.
In post 114, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:
In post 108, All Alone wrote:
In post 93, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm not seeing the type of discussion I want.
Maybe the inactives will provide.
This post reads scum to me. I don't really see a town motivation for counting on an inactive player to provide discussion. I mean, that's kind of the opposite of what "inactive" means! A townie who's frustrated with the discussion not going their way usually takes the initiative to provide that discussion themself, but Gamma doesn't. As scum hoping to hold back, his mindset here makes a lot more sense.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald
Nah it's town.

It's day 1 first few pages. It's evident, at least to me that Gamma doesn't care about the wagon on him, but instead is interested in the inactives, or those that will try to hide behind a bandwagon so they don't have to contribute much to the discussion.
This opinion seems forced and kinda scummy to me.
In post 112, Ircher wrote:This is what I'm looking for. While I agree with the premise stated here,
I don't think it warrants a wagon in comparison to everything else Gamma has done so far.
Earlier posts make it seem like his defense of Gamma is based on Gamma not having done anything scummy rather than seeming overwhelmingly town.

VOTE: Ircher
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Post Post #132 (isolation #2) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:29 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 125, Alisae wrote:Asphodel, your introduction seems self-conscious as fuck.
Voting for the extention btw.
Aw geez, ya think so? I-I'm only doing my best! I mean, you're entitled to your opinion and all, but, I'd really appreciate it if you, maybe, could just not
In post 126, Alisae wrote:Kay, caught up. My vote is going here.
VOTE: Asphodel

I don't like this Gamma wagon.
Aw, shucks.
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Post Post #133 (isolation #3) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:31 am

Post by Asphodel »

Hey Flubbernugget who are the scums? Try voting one of them. Or anyone really, it'd probably help us find them.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #4) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:37 am

Post by Asphodel »

OK, I'll bite. Who?
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Post Post #138 (isolation #5) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:40 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 136, Gamma Emerald wrote:I don't think Asphodel is a bad townie.
Cool, but who do you think is scum?
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Post Post #152 (isolation #6) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:50 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 139, Human Sequencer wrote:I called Asphodel Banana man in my post intentionally to see if he'd be more likely to miss it.

If Asphodel truly was 'really excited' to play this game, he would have read my post and realized it was directed to him and responded. Scum don't need to read the thread as intently, they already know everybody's alignment so legitimate scumhunting through posts isn't important to them.

Asphodel could have easily done a quick ctrl-f of his name and responded to whatever he came across.

I think Asphodel truly is 'really excited' to play this game, but I think it's because he finally rolled scum. Gonna have to put that Gamma wagon on hold, along with properly sorting Ircher for now.

Grey is still probably town.

VOTE: Asphodel
So your case is that I'm not actually reading the thread, but instead that I'm just CTRL + F'ing it and missed your post because of that?

I considered responding to your post, but thought that it was pretty self explanatory that I'd be excited for my first game in 6 months. I did the same thing with a post of Naomi-tan's.

But the more important thing is
Gonna have to put that Gamma wagon on hold,
along with properly sorting Ircher for now.
You can multitask.
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Post Post #157 (isolation #7) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:55 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 148, All Alone wrote:
In post 131, Asphodel wrote:
In post 112, Ircher wrote:This is what I'm looking for. While I agree with the premise stated here,
I don't think it warrants a wagon in comparison to everything else Gamma has done so far.
Earlier posts make it seem like his defense of Gamma is based on Gamma not having done anything scummy rather than seeming overwhelmingly town.

VOTE: Ircher
:neutral: how is that even scum-indicative? I really don't get it
Ircher's response to your post is just countering your suspicion of Gamma by saying "but look at all the towny stuff he/she's done so far!" Up until then, I've been getting the general vibe that he thinks Gamma's been NAI or a weak townread. This makes it look like Ircher's defending Gamma for the sake of defending Gamma, not because he's convinced Gamma's town.
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Post Post #166 (isolation #8) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:02 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 161, Ircher wrote:
In post 103, Ircher wrote:
In post 39, Gamma Emerald wrote:What? Did the use of the word "ugly" become a scumtell?
In post 42, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 40, -Grey- wrote:
In post 39, Gamma Emerald wrote:What? Did the use of the word "ugly" become a scumtell?
See? His guilty scum mind confesses in his confusion!

Surprised by my quick deduction that he is scum, he questions how I caught him.
No, that's no slip. I'm asking if "ugly" is said more by town than scum.
BTW people need to post here FAST.
I liked these two posts. Grey stated his responses were humor, but I disagree - he would've stopped with his first response if it was simply humor. Continuing to call it scum posts makes people believe it is serious.

Gamma's reactions were fine -- he is questioning Grey's reads because there dies not appear to be evidence supporting them.
Town posts from Gamma.
Give me something more than that. This is just him defending himself against Grey's accusations.
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Post Post #177 (isolation #9) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:18 am

Post by Asphodel »

@ Ircher

The posts you linked are null and you used them against a scumread you thought was legitimate, or not totally baseless, or whatever. I understand giving things more weight at the start of D1 than you would otherwise, but I just don't see how these posts ever were anything but null.

I'd be fine with that if you're trying it to force RVS-ish reads, but it crossed the line into suspicious at 112 where you're saying that the scumread's legitimate but saying you feel your townread trumps it.
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Post Post #189 (isolation #10) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:10 am

Post by Asphodel »

Ircher: Human Sequencer is town. Thoughts?
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Post Post #201 (isolation #11) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:56 am

Post by Asphodel »

Ircher, maybe I need to be a little more specific: Human Sequencer is town from 139.
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Post Post #203 (isolation #12) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:59 am

Post by Asphodel »

All Alone, where do you think I've backed off Ircher? I feel like I've been pretty consistent in saying that I think he's gone too far defending Gamma. Yes, I switched from "Ircher's gone too far defending gamma for what he thought was null" to "Ircher's gone too far defending Gamma for what he didn't think was null but should have been null". Both are valid reasons for thinking his townread of Gamma wasn't legitimate and I think it was pretty natural to progress from the first to the second after reading Ircher's defenses.
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Post Post #205 (isolation #13) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:03 am

Post by Asphodel »

I'd like to see Ircher's response first, then I'll explain a bit more.
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Post Post #208 (isolation #14) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:21 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 206, Ircher wrote:
In post 201, Asphodel wrote:Ircher, maybe I need to be a little more specific: Human Sequencer is town from 139.
The post reads as neutral, possibly town. The scumread & vote wasn't necessarily bad imo and the unwillingness to multitask is null. It's not something that jumps out as town, but it doesn't jump out as scum either.
I'm reading it as town. Calling me "Banana Man" in an attempt to get me to miss it feels too crafty to be fake scumhunting imo. I was trying to see if you'd give Human Sequencer the same "he looks like he's scumhunting, therefore he's town" town points that you gave Gamma. You didn't.

And somehow this feels like less of a "gotcha" moment than it was supposed to.
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Post Post #223 (isolation #15) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:32 pm

Post by Asphodel »

Hi I'm around and want to talk to you three. If you had to lynch someone right now, who is it and why?
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Post Post #233 (isolation #16) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:49 pm

Post by Asphodel »

TwoFace, were you caught up when you made that post?
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Post Post #234 (isolation #17) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:51 pm

Post by Asphodel »

Heads up, I'm at L-2.
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Post Post #236 (isolation #18) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:56 pm

Post by Asphodel »

I know you're still reading through, but when you're done I'd appreciate an explanation of why you think 110 reads TvT, especially how it makes Grey look town.
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Post Post #242 (isolation #19) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 1:05 pm

Post by Asphodel »

In post 229, Flubbernugget wrote:VOTE: asohodel

I don't like how little thought he puts into trying to reach out to people. It sticks out like a sore thumb. Also somone pointed out some good contradictions in 195.

I feel like these should be reversed.
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Post Post #265 (isolation #20) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 1:51 pm

Post by Asphodel »

Flubbernugget, can we go over your first few posts in the game? I feel like a guy with as much game experience as you would be less confused by the fact that early Day 1 reads are pretty weak. I'm also not a fan of your vote on me, seems like you're trying to manufacture reasons to sheep the wagon.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #21) » Tue Dec 20, 2016 1:54 pm

Post by Asphodel »

In post 264, TwoFace wrote:
In post 235, Naomi-Tan wrote: This really Reads TvT..
Disagree. Ircher is scum.

Just need to find the 3rd. This game is too easy
OK this may be a really dumb question but how do we know there are 3 scum? I mean, just from a game balance perspective that'd make sense but I'm going to feel really dumb if there's a role list somewhere that I'm missing.
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Post Post #697 (isolation #22) » Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:52 am

Post by Asphodel »

I am in the process of catching up. Here are a few posts that caught my eye.

I'm at the bottom of page 19. I'm not ascetic.
In post 289, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 242, Asphodel wrote:
In post 229, Flubbernugget wrote:VOTE: asohodel

I don't like how little thought he puts into trying to reach out to people. It sticks out like a sore thumb. Also somone pointed out some good contradictions in 195.

I feel like these should be reversed.
You're conflating thought with the number of posts in thread

My scum read becomes greater
Probably should have been clearer about this. "I don't like how little thought he puts into trying to reach out to people, it sticks out like a sore thumb" is pretty weak reasoning, particularly compared to any number of reasons you could have voted for someone like Ircher. I'm saying that I think you were trying to opportunistically hop on my wagon and came up with further weak reasoning so you could pretend that this was an original thought. I'm also saying I think you look pretty scummy for having done this.
In post 291, TwoFace wrote:
In post 236, Asphodel wrote:I know you're still reading through, but when you're done I'd appreciate an explanation of why you think 110 reads TvT, especially how it makes Grey look town.
Why are you worried about how it makes grey look?
In post 294, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 265, Asphodel wrote:Flubbernugget, can we go over your first few posts in the game? I feel like a guy with as much game experience as you would be less confused by the fact that early Day 1 reads are pretty weak. I'm also not a fan of your vote on me, seems like you're trying to manufacture reasons to sheep the wagon.
Are you going to back up literally anything you said in this post

It's not like I have a 3 page iso for you to dig through to cite anything
This is another reason why I thought you looked scummy--the reaction to Day 1 stuff seemed over-the-top and forced.
In post 423, Alisae wrote:Going back into one of my previous games just to find something to lynch me on. Ya know, I don't like that.
Have you ever taken into consideration that that was my first game and that I was learning as I was playing the game?
VOTE: All Alone
This game was less than a month ago. This isn't ancient history.

Why do you think this vote without conviction is more red than other votes without conviction that have happened this game?

Have you expressed this sentiment (voting w/o conviction is scummy) in any previous games?
In post 428, Naomi-Tan wrote:Speaking of stepping up and defending someone

Alisae Isn't a Red
You can tell this by how flustered they are right now. They are lashing out at people who vote them without really thinking it fully through there emotional right now and trying there best to not be lynched ironically pushing more attention on themselves. If they live they will be shown as green later on I believe via play. Then there are things like her interaction with gray. Yes it was poorly executed but thats the point. If you was red looking for a Misslynch why target one of the strongest Green players instead of their investigative target that was already kinda melting. Additionally The way they put forth there wagon was super poorly coordinated and didn't really have the careful thought put into it that a wagon by an experianced player or a red member has. To Paraphase that interaction here is a small over the top rendition.

Gray; Eh been on this train long enough, its not going anywhere time to switch back.
Alisae; Define Long
Gray; urrrr... Its a word, Look it up in the dictionary its kinda common.
Alisae; ...Why you avoiding the question. Its a simple thing to answer
Gray; Its a common word. I don't really need to look things up in the dictionary for you do I?
Alisae; Well you could!.. (Blushes) Well.. It appears you miss understood.. What I REALLY wanted to know is What made you change your vote... Not that im embarrassed! shut up! You just don't like working with people. thats red!

You can see this tsundere Attitude at the end in Its especally Explicit with the First and last lines; "Okay then you misunderstood the question" and "Also don't like the fact you're not willing to work with me. If anything you're being anti-town at the moment."
The first line establishes that They acknowledge that Gray didn't get the question and didn't want to look up a common word. while the last line shows how flustered there are about it. red reading them for there own poorly worded question while being embarrassed themselves.
After that point they convince themselves that Gray is Lynch baiting when its obvious to us that they was just playing normally. but to the world filter she applied it was Lynch baiting because she took note that Gray was kinda playing well. but also thought they was playing badly. the only time you play well and badly is with a slayer gambit or lynch bait. Which is how her thoughts landed in that square.
Her questions after that interaction are probing to work out where people stand, not pushing at all which would match a more careful playstyle until people put pressure on her. Given what I extracted from her personality ealier I believe this would resulted in them acting defensive and making rash choices.
Why are you assuming that Alisae wouldn't be flustered as red? She only has one completed game and that was a green game. Two others in progress where she's alive in both if I read right. Seems to me like being flustered for a person without many completed games is NAI. That being said, her focus on lynchbait strikes me as a more green thing now that I realize this is one of her first few games. I don't know how to put this delicately, but focusing overly much on one potential strategy seems like a type of thing a newer player would do.
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Post Post #703 (isolation #23) » Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:45 am

Post by Asphodel »

can we not bring it back?
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Post Post #712 (isolation #24) » Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:18 pm

Post by Asphodel »

In post 484, TwoFace wrote:yeah how do you know that?
Jumped out to me as opportunistic. Later Gamma said he thought Grey's reaction was worse than TF's. I disagree. This post screams "I don't want to be quiet when all this goes down" to me. Wouldn't be surprised at all if there was a Naomi x TF scumteam, regardless of whether Naomi slipped.
In post 520, Ircher wrote:http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=64916
Day 1 of this shows a town white-knight. They dont go constantly go back and forth on reads and give in whenever it feels it's convenient; they stick with it as AlwaysInnocent did with me in the linked game.
I don't like this at all from Ircher. Ircher's cherry picking an example that's not even Naomi and using it as proof that Naomi can't be town because she's not acting like someone else did.
In post 549, Naomi-Tan wrote:Okay lets get stop Alisae killing themselves.

Alisae - Okay I know your prob reading this and have gone quiet as you don't know what to make of things. but you should not join my wagon. If you join right now and I flip green they will go back to hounding you and if I flip red they will say that you are my red buddy and joined late as you couldn't see me talking my way out of things and want the green credit.
Naomi, why are you reaching out to Alisae in particular with this post?
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Post Post #719 (isolation #25) » Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:54 pm

Post by Asphodel »

In post 592, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 590, -Grey- wrote:
In post 589, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 588, -Grey- wrote:So, Gamma is voting me for voting Naomi over a slip, but completely ignoring 2F who is not only sheeping my push but advancing with it after Gamma stated in thread that he doesn't believe it's a slip.

Town Gamma would have picked up on 2F continuing to push what he considers a non-slip and voted him.

Possible Gamma/2F team. (I read 2F as possible scum for other reasons)

VOTE: Gamma
I acknowledged his vote and stated why I don't SR it when I voted you.
And it's full of shit because he continued pushing her for the slip after you whined about it not being one and I hadn't even been posting.

You're dodging him and voting me even though he's the one actively pushing.
His vote comes from the fact she knew about encryptors from another game.
Good point, I'd forgotten that. TF argues this point later himself and it's well-taken. I think if TF were Naomi's scumbuddy he'd probably do this in a lower-effort way.
In post 600, TwoFace wrote:
In post 291, TwoFace wrote:
In post 236, Asphodel wrote:I know you're still reading through, but when you're done I'd appreciate an explanation of why you think 110 reads TvT, especially how it makes Grey look town.
Why are you worried about how it makes grey look?
Aspho, you never answered my question
I knew I'd forgotten something in my earlier posts! I was interested in why Naomi thought Ircher looked town because he was my top scumread and at the time she was pretty neutral for me. I thought I'd learn something about that. Then I realized--how was she getting that Grey was town from one of Ircher's posts? That confused me more than the Ircher townread.
In post 666, Naomi-Tan wrote:Well I tried..

For those of you who have been reading my posts directed at Two face with confusion; Two face is the type of player that falls heavily to confirm bais. once TF gets an idea in their heads its hard to get it out. So I been asking probing questions knowing they are town as I know me and Gray are town to try and get them to firstly decide that Red!Me and Red!Gray do not exist on the same team no matter what and then to get them to understand that we are both green.
I failed to do so. But thats fine. I'm sure TF will eventually shift his perceptions on his own. This is also why I been ignoring Greys comments. I feel it would of distracted two face from my attempt.
TF identified that about himself in post 48.
In post 671, Ircher wrote:
In post 668, Gamma Emerald wrote:Fine. I REALLY WANTED to get a hard townread out of this, but since no one knows proper play I have to be the IC of this game.
I am an Ascetic Enabler. I was hoping Ascetics would come forward and claim so I could have townreads to start with. The proper play with the Ascetic modifier is to claim in your first post or so. However, no one seems to get that, so I decided to go hamfisted and link to the last game I played with an Ascetic. STILL no one got it, mostly because no one bothered to read it. So I now have to fucking depants before I can use my role info to find town.
Either scum are ascetic or kry has an ascetic.
There are plenty of people who hadn't seen Gamma's posts. I know if I'd been an ascetic I wouldn't have known what to do with it. I doubt a lot of other people with either fewer completed games or less activity in this game would've known what to do either.
In post 700, Alisae wrote:
In post 697, Asphodel wrote:Why do you think this vote without conviction is more red than other votes without conviction that have happened this game?

Have you expressed this sentiment (voting w/o conviction is scummy) in any previous games?
First question I don't really understand what your asking. If you're asking me why I think it's scummy, I think that all votes when they are casted matter and quite frankly say "I think this person is scummy" unless it's RVS, then it's to apply pressure. We're also way out of RVS now.
Gin was probably trying to see how I would respond under pressure.
But I think that's something that moreso applies later within the day.

Also I when I voted All Alone I believed that they are scum and I still kinda do.

As for the 2nd question, I don't understand how I'm supposed to answer this.
Q1: That's fair. I was asking why you were thinking GnT's vote was scummier than some of the other votes which seemed more like pressure votes. At the time I had some of Grey's posts in my mind, but I can see putting more weight in later posts when we're further out of RVS.

Q2: Basically I'm asking if there are any other games in which you had become suspicious of someone for voting without conviction.
In post 701, Alisae wrote:Also @Asphodel, don't talk about my ongoing games please. I think that's against site rules, is it not?
I don't think I said anything out of line in regards to those. If I understand correctly I'm not allowed to speculate about your alignment in those games or discuss what's happened, but I think all I did was mention that you were currently in two other games.
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Post Post #720 (isolation #26) » Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:55 pm

Post by Asphodel »

I'm going to need to step away from the game for a bit. Tonight I'll try to condense my reads into one good coherent post.
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Post Post #847 (isolation #27) » Thu Dec 22, 2016 1:12 am

Post by Asphodel »

Hey AllAlone here's what I have on Alisae in my upcoming (abridged) reads list:

Alisae: Reading her town. Her paranoia about lynchbait seems like it's coming from a less-experienced townie who found a new scumhunting heuristic and wants to try it out as much as possible. Her initial suspicion on Gin is actually pretty reasonable, and her subsequent vote on AA makes me think her panic was legit. I also think new scum would be far more hesitant to claim non-ascetic than she was.

Thoughts? Particularly given that she has kinda backed off you?
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Post Post #850 (isolation #28) » Thu Dec 22, 2016 1:48 am

Post by Asphodel »

I'm sorry, I tried. I've been up for hours writing a post. I was going to vote Naomi right now. I had a great post typed out and everything tearing into her Gin-Gamma suspicion, talking about other players' reactions to her "scumslip", and everything. Then everything slowly started coming apart at the seams with that suspicion. The Gin-Gamma suspicion she had didn't look nearly as scummy as it did on first glance. I also stumbled upon another post that I found pretty significant.
In post 584, Naomi-Tan wrote:Okay guys so... I was doing a thought experiment over a snack break. Given there are 13 players and 3 of them are red and there is no declared day talk. I'm guessing we have 4 green Pr's and 2 Red Pr's :3

Im not looking for anyone to claim. but I will see if things match upto this later :3 I wanna become better at predicting the setups.
This is not a scum post.

So I've still got a vote on Ircher. I do think there have been a lot of things he's done that look pretty scummy, but my suspicion of him has been mitigated by
In post 676, Ircher wrote:Also:

Ascetic should claim now. Failure to do so is an auto-lynch in the future should you be proven to be an ascetic.
which I feel is a risky post coming from scum.

So I'll vote VOTE: Flubbernugget who I've actually liked more the more I've seen from him, but whose original vote on the me wagon along with his strange intro make me suspicious.

I'll give this suspicion list post another try tomorrow night because I think they really help me sort my thoughts out. I've been having trouble getting people sorted this game. Hopefully the townreads I got today will help with that.
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Post Post #1174 (isolation #29) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:10 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 874, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:
In post 46, Asphodel wrote: Self-meta-ing a little bit from my games on the other site,
I very rarely, if ever try to push for my partners to be lynched as scum.
That's for a few reasons. It was a pretty tight-knit group over there, and there was no cardflip in many of the games. Like, over a span of 20 or so scum games, I remember the single time I voted for a scum partner, and even that doesn't really count because my partner made a really terrible counterclaim. That's not to say I never scumread my partners, I just avoided seriously putting my vote on them because 48 hours is not a very long time.
A red flip will be V interesting. I'm confused as to why, as town, you'd be saying that or really anything regarding how you play as red?
I like the conclusion that because there is no day chat, this is his form of telling his partners he won't be pushing them if they get sus.
Was hoping to get towncred upon the first scum cardflip if it was a lynch I pushed hard for. Thought it was a reasonable thing to do given Naomi's similar post at the start of the game, and this wasn't something I wanted to try to have to argue after the fact. Honestly I'm not sure I could bus a partner. Luckily I drew a town role so it's not something I'd have to worry about.
In post 875, All Alone wrote:
In post 850, Asphodel wrote:So I've still got a vote on Ircher.
I don't like this. In my experience scum are more likely to just "suddenly remember" who they're voting than town. Outside of RVS, it's very unlikely that a townie forgets who they're voting for in the first place.
In post 850, Asphodel wrote:I do think there have been a lot of things he's done that look pretty scummy, but my suspicion of him has been mitigated by
In post 676, Ircher wrote:Also:

Ascetic should claim now. Failure to do so is an auto-lynch in the future should you be proven to be an ascetic.
which I feel is a risky post coming from scum.
What even is this. Ircher's post here isn't really risky, it's just standard play when town wants a claim. I really can't see a townie who was genuinely skeptical of Ircher dropping that skepticism because of this post.
In post 850, Asphodel wrote:So I'll vote VOTE: Flubbernugget who I've actually liked more the more I've seen from him, but whose original vote on the me wagon along with his strange intro make me suspicious.
I don't like this either. I don't see a town motive for voting someone, and then immediately following it up with a punch-pull like that. When townies vote, regardless of whether it's for lynching, pressure, information, or even just spite, they usually want that vote to have the maximum possible effect. The immediate punch-pull comes off like Asphodel isn't motivated by any of those things. Scums are mush more happy to avoid getting into a fight, and I think that's exactly why Asphodel worded his Flubber vote this way.

I'll gladly lynch either Alisae or Asphodel today, they both read very scummy to me.
I wasn't suddenly remembering that I had a vote on Ircher--I was planning on shifting my vote to Naomi anyways. When that suspicion unraveled, I had the option to change my vote or to not change my vote. My vote on Ircher wasn't doing much anymore so I decided to change it.

I think asking for ascetic claims is a bold move if Ircher's scum. Rolefishing is a pretty common thing that scum get rung up for. He's also forcing himself and maybe potential scum partners to stake a claim on whether or not they're ascetic, which is risky because if he's scum he probably doesn't know what town roles are out there. Like what if the only ascetics are scum?

The town motive for voting someone and immediately reducing its effect is to be honest. Last night I put a lot of work into the Naomi case, only to have it unravel. Flubbernugget was a residual suspicion I'd had from earlier stuff, and I didn't see anything recent that was particularly suspicious. It was a case that I'd already laid out earlier. Leaving my vote on Ircher wasn't doing much good, and my suspicion on him had (at the time) been fading. So I thought maybe shifting my vote could get me some more posts from Flubbernugget, who's been fairly quiet this game.
In post 913, Ircher wrote:Why?

We need to agree on a lynch (besides certain people ofc), and do it without letting them claim. There has been enough claims today.
This is bad play from scum or town. Town should want that info either way. Scum or town should not want to advocate for anti-town positions openly.
In post 924, Ircher wrote:Okay.

Some things to consider:

1) Why am I acting blatantly anti-town considering I had a decent amount of trust up until this point?
2) Why would I be flashing a neon sign saying "Lynch Me" if I was scum?
Why would you do these things as town?

Going to sort out the RD-Grey thing in the upcoming readslist.
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Post Post #1176 (isolation #30) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:47 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 1080, -Grey- wrote:Ascetic(s) + Miller vs
x-shot
cop?

I DON'T FUCKING THINK SO
In post 1041, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1039, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:
In post 1037, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1004, Rainbowdash wrote:@Grey - Last chance to add anything else to your claim that you may have been missing.

Im still convinced grey is scum and he is caught for both game actions he hasn't realized yet and something else that im not going to say until he responds to this just incase he decided to leave out something critical in his claim because there is some stuff that doesn't add up.
Oh I've totally left something out of my claim, no doubt about that.

The question is, how do
you
know that?
I detect a storm brewing
No, not really. If my hunch is right, Rainbow might be my counterpart. It's the only way he should know about my limitation. There's no reason to think scum would.

I do wonder, however, why he would choose to discuss this today. His timing is utter shit.
I also think he could be. I'll look into him a little deeper soon but I don't like that he is posting a ton of reads and 0 of them are townreads.
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Post Post #1177 (isolation #31) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:50 am

Post by Asphodel »

oh damn it I was using those quotes for something else and forgot I'd had them copied.
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Post Post #1182 (isolation #32) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:00 am

Post by Asphodel »

Grey is likely telling the truth, and RainbowDash is likely lying. We still shouldn't lynch RainbowDash today. I want Grey to live until tomorrow and get a report. If RainbowDash is still alive after Day 1, then killing Grey is throwing her under the bus. Confirming him as a sort of cop confirms her as lying about being a miller due to the difference in mafia/not mafia & guilty/not guilty language. Also, on the off chance I'm wrong about which one's telling the truth and which one's lying, the night might provide a little more clarity.
In post 779, Rainbowdash wrote:
In post 771, Gamma Emerald wrote: Miller
Nah.

You need to not only have a cop in the game but they also need to target you. Its far more of a risk, but by claiming miller you basically say to the scum "by the way there is a cop in this game". Even if you want to say both players survive two cycles, you are at about 80% chance not to be investigated. Especially in a large game, I think you can get away without a miller claim, even more if you leave some sort of a "Hey look at me, im a miller and this is a convenient breadcrumb" type post.

Less scum know about the setup the harder it is to play as scum. C9++ setup is the best example of how scum not knowing what they are up against makes the game FAR harder for them.

That's just theory though, I think site still tends to trend towards the conservative miller claim (likely due to lack of scum faking it) although not as much anymore, but I think there is plenty of justification against throwing that claim out as well.
1. This is not a breadcrumb. This didn't happen until post 779 and Gamma's the person who brought up the role in the first place, not you.
2. What made you claim? It doesn't help prove your case against Grey, and you're on record as saying that claiming miller is a bad idea.
In post 806, Rainbowdash wrote:I am fairly confident that's BS.

I don't want a real cop countering him right now. For time being and hopefully to make this far easier, what type of results do you get: Guilty/Not Guilty or Mafia/Not Mafia.
This, and Grey's subsequent answer, makes it very unlikely that the two are on the same team.

In post 1004, Rainbowdash wrote:@Grey - Last chance to add anything else to your claim that you may have been missing.

Im still convinced grey is scum and he is caught for both game actions he hasn't realized yet and something else that im not going to say until he responds to this just incase he decided to leave out something critical in his claim because there is some stuff that doesn't add up.
Were you expecting Grey to add something on to his claim that wasn't there before?
In post 1046, Rainbowdash wrote:
In post 779, Rainbowdash wrote:"Hey look at me, im a miller and this is a convenient breadcrumb"
Im a cheeky pony and I freaking love it.

Yeah im claiming miller. It why I specifically asked about the type of result that he would get since my role is a bit vague regarding it, but heavily implies that he would be getting guilty/not guilty instead of mafia as he suggested.

Now your immediate thought may be as to why I question a cop when my role implies it and there are a few things that I have been thinking as to why I am pretty sure he is lying about this that don't have to do with result wording. In a bit of a spoiler alert, I think there is a better chance that he is fakeclaiming town than a cop.

1) His immediate thought of "we lynch any guilty or 'no result' D2". This is first implies he would be alive which if he is a cop... why does he think this really, especially when he has continually pushed for a fact that there is "no RB" in the game. The assumption that there is no RB is a little interesting, as a RB is a usually a scum counter for a role. The presence of Gamma doesn't increase or decrease the chance for there to be a RB unless the ascetic is scum in which case it dramatically. Either way, what is the worst case for him as scum? Call a guilty on a player like me or another somewhat hard lynch and end up not pulling it off? Best case he got out of D1 lynch, easy D2 lynch and scum is way up.

2) The game he kept referring to he claimed cop in and completely left that out of his reason for crumbing. Its why I have this really bad gut feeling that he might be VT and is completely screwing with us and I am either a red herring role or there is a real cop who was smart and kept their mouth shut. If he is going to refer to a game he claimed cop in (even as not cop) how do you NOT link that into your claim? I had no idea what Gamma was going on about early, but figured it had to be something role related since I couldn't see any play reason to make that link.

3) Ascetic. As I already stated, that is a way to weaken a role far more often than not. What else is Gamma effecting? I don't think he can be a red herring since that would be a massive curveball by the mod. Throw in a very rare role (enabler) and then give it an ever more rare modifier (ascetic) and then make it useless? Doubt it. He has to be playing some part in this game, and scum having that modifier makes little sense as it doesn't really benefit them in any way, even if an ideal situation occurs (like cop targets ascetic) as its not a clear, just a "there might be a RB" and if Gamma claimed would likely get them lynched. So its probably a town modifier, and it pretty much would only work on something like a cop. Its why I kept trying to push just incase he was lying and was a more believable one shot or something.

Not as much on a direct correlation, but a PR claim D1 is a bit more likely from scum than from town. Town wont (shouldn't) fake claim as VT. Scum who are going to be lynched without a PR claim will claim a PR at a higher frequency than exist in the game. Its not big, but it more works counter to this. A VT claim is disproportionally likely to come from town D1 when it the first player ran up.

Anyways tl;dr

My role wording, him setting up ideal scum resolutions and assuming he will be around D2 to execute it, ignoring what seems like what would be an obvious cop breadcrumb from somepony who was planning it, ascetic not really balancing with a full cop.... I think he is scum.

Really I think there is a better chance he is a VT who saw this work once and now tries to do anti-town play than he is a real cop. Either way I needed to claim here because I basically wreck a scum claim, become basic conf-town due to it and am a role that isn't even a threat to scum. That's a win-win in my book since they have to take me out or hunt other roles.

Lets lynch him now please and thank you. That was not cop play. That was somepony trying to act like a cop.
His cop claim apparently contradicts some of the language in your role PM, and he was your top suspicion before he claimed cop. And you're still viewing him as more likely VT than scum? I don't like this. I don't like this at all.
In post 1105, Rainbowdash wrote:
krylea wrote:
In post 1086, Human Sequencer wrote:Grey didn't switch anything up. Grey posted that he -was- leaving something out. His story is consistent start to finish.
No it isn't. Grey clearly implied that the missing piece of his role had some natural connection with another player - he specifically mentioned a counterpart. X-shot does not have a natural connection with another player, unless he is
still leaving things out
.
*ding ding ding*

What is the counterpart to a cop? Miller.
What is the counterpart to a X-Shot Cop? Still Miller.

Two X-Shot Cops is going to be a massively townsided setup because you get two N1 investigations. You can have a backup/deputy but why would he think im trying to counter with that?

Grey probably has me pegged as miller and is getting bailed out by HS here.
This is not what Grey's saying. He's saying that with ascetics and if he's only an x-shot cop, he'd expect that there might be a second weakened investigative role. Rainbow Dash asking about if Grey had any limitations made Grey think that she may be the other investigative role (and thus his counterpart). Miller + Ascetics + Shot limitations is three different ways the cop's crippled. A second investigative role implies better balance. Here's the background for Grey's line of thinking which I think makes sense.

In post 1041, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1039, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:
In post 1037, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1004, Rainbowdash wrote:@Grey - Last chance to add anything else to your claim that you may have been missing.

Im still convinced grey is scum and he is caught for both game actions he hasn't realized yet and something else that im not going to say until he responds to this just incase he decided to leave out something critical in his claim because there is some stuff that doesn't add up.
Oh I've totally left something out of my claim, no doubt about that.

The question is, how do
you
know that?
I detect a storm brewing
No, not really. If my hunch is right, Rainbow might be my counterpart. It's the only way he should know about my limitation. There's no reason to think scum would.

I do wonder, however, why he would choose to discuss this today. His timing is utter shit.
In post 1080, -Grey- wrote:Ascetic(s) + Miller vs
x-shot
cop?

I DON'T FUCKING THINK SO
Taken alone, I don't think it's impossible that there's a miller, ascetics, and shot limitations because of the likely existence of a second (or 3rd?) PR. It's just that RainbowDash and Grey aren't the miller and cop together because of the disagreement on guilty/not guilty vs. mafia/not mafia.
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Post Post #1186 (isolation #33) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:24 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 1170, Alisae wrote:
In post 1169, Naomi-Tan wrote:
In post 1168, Alisae wrote:Next question: What if scum had no Ascetics?

This theory falls apart if they do btw.
Not really I said my last thing as if Green had the Ascetic.
I feel like scum not having Ascetics is possible and the reason that Rainbow doesn't want them claiming is because it's a step closer for us building a stronger townblock for us to lead lynches off of.
With that said tho, this falls apart if they do have Ascetics, which then I feel like Rainbow would want Ascetics to claim so that his own Ascetics could blend in with more ease.
This is wrong. Pretty sure town has no ascetics, or they would've claimed already. Esp. given the cop claim that's out there. Also idk typical role composition and stuff that well on MS but I'm thinking there are very few scum powers that are hindered by town asceticism. It's mostly town investigative roles that would be hindered by asceticism. I'm kinda talking out of my ass here though, I rarely play closed setups and I don't think I've ever played a closed setup with ascetics.
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Post Post #1188 (isolation #34) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:49 am

Post by Asphodel »

So what's your position on why I'm scummy? Is it that I was trying to send a secret message to scum partners that I wouldn't go after them, or is it scummy that I thought I'd get towncred for lynching scum if I posted that beforehand?
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Post Post #1190 (isolation #35) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:08 am

Post by Asphodel »

Well they can't both be true :/
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Post Post #1192 (isolation #36) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:19 am

Post by Asphodel »

Well I'm kind of a shitty scum partner if I'm telling my scum buddies I don't plan on going for them while at the same time planning on getting towncred for when I lynch their asses. Both seem kinda silly to me. I think it's way more plausible that I saw Naomi giving out an intro- type "here's how I play" post. Then thought to myself that I should do the same, especially since I have a distinctive scum game that won't be on display here since I drew town.
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Post Post #1194 (isolation #37) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:24 am

Post by Asphodel »

All right, here we go. You ready for a big post? I'll probably cut it off to the last 10 scum games. Unfortunately the forum I played most often on has a really shitty voting system which is just bolding (and sometimes reddening) the votes. It also has a fairly shitty iso system, where you just have to alphabetize the posts. I'll prioritize finishing my vote post first, then get to your concerns, then finish my reads list.
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Post Post #1195 (isolation #38) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:28 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 845, All Alone wrote:
In post 704, Alisae wrote:
In post 703, Asphodel wrote:can we not bring it back?
This makes me want to, but I'm comfortable on the All Alone wagon. After all, I'm probably going to be All Alone on it.
This isn't a town mindset. If Alisae is town and genuinely thinks I'm the best lynch for today, it's unlikely they'd be this comfortable with me being a vanity wagon. Townies get frustrated when their preferred lynch isn't gaining traction, whereas scums are much more okay with staying out of the limelight.
In post 845, All Alone wrote:
In post 772, Alisae wrote:
Rando wrote:I will ALWAYS make the point that pushing on fake slips is a scumtell, in every single game I ever play. Because it's been a very reliable tell for me. I'll let you in on a couple of my other tricks as well; being "excited" about the game when the general mood is depressed or uninterested to the point of wanting to abandon is a scumtell. Claiming an investigative PR and making a lot of content about who you're going to check the following night (especially framing it as an fos ie "For that I'm going to check YOU tonight") is a scumtell. Jumping on people for too quickly commenting on a nightkill is a scumtell. These are all things I will pretty much always points out when they happen, regardless of my alignment.

Scum love having a "justified" vote. Instinctively, they look for a vote where they can lean back on a "factual" basis. A "slip" is a perfect example. When you push on a slip, you're no longer making your own read, you're just saying A therefore B. There is no read, you're presenting it as a fact. And when the person you push flips town, you don't have to defend your "read" being wrong, you can just use that justification you built as a scape-goat. It's what scum subconsciously do ALL THE TIME. Yes, sometimes town will mistakenly think they've found a scumslip. Players like Mathblade are notorious for that kind of play. But as a general rule it's a scum tactic.
^ Something a player that I respect once told me.
I also have a hard time believing that town-Alisae believes this strongly that slip-hunting is scummy, yet has said
absolutely nothing
about TwoFace's attack on Naomi. TwoFace has only accused Naomi of slipping somewhere around
eighty million times
, so there's no way Alisae can have missed it. There's really no good reason for town-Alisae to be ignoring TwoFace here. But as scum looking for a reason to push the Grey wagon, it makes a lot more sense for Alisae to use this against Grey while ignoring TwoFace.
Which makes sense until you realize that 2 hours earlier Alisae posted a readslist where she put TwoFace in her second-highest tier of suspicion.
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Post Post #1196 (isolation #39) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:30 am

Post by Asphodel »

Whoops, I really need to stop having more than one tab open.

All Alone gets his own post because I'm switching my vote to him.
VOTE: All Alone

I feel like I've seen people townreading him because they think he's scumhunting well. Look at what he's actually doing though.

Here is a timeline of All Alone's opinions: TwoFace is scummy. GammaEmerald is scummy. Asphodel is scummy. Alisae is scummy. RainbowDash is scummy. The closest he gets to reading anyone town is saying "I honestly don't get a sense of disingenuity from Ircher's ISO". That's not even really a townread. It's clear from the way he pursues both me and Alisae that he's only trying to get people lynched, not sort them.

Look back on his posts, everything he says about me and Alisae is negative, and a lot of it is ticky-tacky stuff.

Going back to his original accusation of me in 182. This is the meat of the accusation.
I really don't like this progression from Asphodel here. Asphodel accuses Ircher of faking a town read on Gamma, Ircher provides evidence that he was indeed townreading Gamma, and then Asphodel backs into a weird stance of "oh well in that case you shouldn't have been townreading him" that doesn't really follow from his original position. It reads like Asphodel is trying to force a scumread more than he's trying to gamesolve.
Then he adds on:
In post 195, All Alone wrote:In particular, this quote from Asphodel's 177 bothers me:
Asphodel wrote:a scumread you thought was legitimate, or not totally baseless, or whatever.
If town-Asphodel is genuinely scumreading Ircher, I don't think he would write off Ircher's position as "or whatever" like that. Townies don't tend to be that apathetic towards their scumreads' positions. Townies need to know what their scumreads' positions are, it's the whole reason they're scumreading them!

But if Asphodel is scum, it makes a lot more sense for him to not care what Ircher's position is here. For scum-Asphodel, the important thing is to make Ircher look bad, and dismissing his read on Gamma as "or whatever" does a much better job of that.
VOTE: Asphodel
This is silly. He spends more words complaining about my use of the phrase "or whatever" than he does making the real accusation. In a later posts, he adds in the following three weak addenda to his suspicion of me:
In post 875, All Alone wrote:
In post 850, Asphodel wrote:So I've still got a vote on Ircher.
I don't like this. In my experience scum are more likely to just "suddenly remember" who they're voting than town. Outside of RVS, it's very unlikely that a townie forgets who they're voting for in the first place.
In post 850, Asphodel wrote:I do think there have been a lot of things he's done that look pretty scummy, but my suspicion of him has been mitigated by
In post 676, Ircher wrote:Also:

Ascetic should claim now. Failure to do so is an auto-lynch in the future should you be proven to be an ascetic.
which I feel is a risky post coming from scum.
What even is this. Ircher's post here isn't really risky, it's just standard play when town wants a claim. I really can't see a townie who was genuinely skeptical of Ircher dropping that skepticism because of this post.
In post 850, Asphodel wrote:So I'll vote VOTE: Flubbernugget who I've actually liked more the more I've seen from him, but whose original vote on the me wagon along with his strange intro make me suspicious.
I don't like this either. I don't see a town motive for voting someone, and then immediately following it up with a punch-pull like that. When townies vote, regardless of whether it's for lynching, pressure, information, or even just spite, they usually want that vote to have the maximum possible effect. The immediate punch-pull comes off like Asphodel isn't motivated by any of those things. Scums are mush more happy to avoid getting into a fight, and I think that's exactly why Asphodel worded his Flubber vote this way.
Which boil down to:
1. Asphodel's acting like he forgot who he was voting for
2. Asphodel is softening on Ircher for a quote I don't think warrants it.
3. After admitting he doesn't like his first two suspicions as much as he used to and promising he'd have a better one tomorrow, Asphodel went to a 3rd suspicion that he also isn't high on.

All Alone does the same thing with Alisae.
In post 422, All Alone wrote:I can definitely support an Alisae lynch today. I believe Alisae knows full well that "voting without conviction" isn't as scummy as they're making it out to be. Why do I believe that? Because town-Alisae has no problem voting without conviction:
In post 215, Alisae wrote:
VOTE: AA9


Now L-1.
In post 216, Alisae wrote:I need more on AA9 before I post my reads, I have no idea what to think of AA9 currently so yeah.
So with that in mind, I really,
really
have a hard time buying that Alisae genuinely believes that voting without conviction is as hardcore-scummy as they're making it out to be. But if Alisae is scum looking for any reason to vote for a townie, the Gin attack makes a lot more sense.
Is the crux of his Alisae suspicion. Then he adds on:
In post 845, All Alone wrote:
In post 704, Alisae wrote:
In post 703, Asphodel wrote:can we not bring it back?
This makes me want to, but I'm comfortable on the All Alone wagon. After all, I'm probably going to be All Alone on it.
This isn't a town mindset. If Alisae is town and genuinely thinks I'm the best lynch for today, it's unlikely they'd be this comfortable with me being a vanity wagon. Townies get frustrated when their preferred lynch isn't gaining traction, whereas scums are much more okay with staying out of the limelight.
Alisae making a joke about being all alone on the all alone wagon isn't "a town mindset".

In post 845, All Alone wrote:
In post 772, Alisae wrote:
I will ALWAYS make the point that pushing on fake slips is a scumtell, in every single game I ever play. Because it's been a very reliable tell for me. I'll let you in on a couple of my other tricks as well; being "excited" about the game when the general mood is depressed or uninterested to the point of wanting to abandon is a scumtell. Claiming an investigative PR and making a lot of content about who you're going to check the following night (especially framing it as an fos ie "For that I'm going to check YOU tonight") is a scumtell. Jumping on people for too quickly commenting on a nightkill is a scumtell. These are all things I will pretty much always points out when they happen, regardless of my alignment.

Scum love having a "justified" vote. Instinctively, they look for a vote where they can lean back on a "factual" basis. A "slip" is a perfect example. When you push on a slip, you're no longer making your own read, you're just saying A therefore B. There is no read, you're presenting it as a fact. And when the person you push flips town, you don't have to defend your "read" being wrong, you can just use that justification you built as a scape-goat. It's what scum subconsciously do ALL THE TIME. Yes, sometimes town will mistakenly think they've found a scumslip. Players like Mathblade are notorious for that kind of play. But as a general rule it's a scum tactic.
^ Something a player that I respect once told me.
I also have a hard time believing that town-Alisae believes this strongly that slip-hunting is scummy, yet has said
absolutely nothing
about TwoFace's attack on Naomi. TwoFace has only accused Naomi of slipping somewhere around
eighty million times
, so there's no way Alisae can have missed it. There's really no good reason for town-Alisae to be ignoring TwoFace here. But as scum looking for a reason to push the Grey wagon, it makes a lot more sense for Alisae to use this against Grey while ignoring TwoFace.
Which seems legitimate until you realize that Alisae had recently posted a suspicion list where she put TwoFace in the second-highest tier of suspicion.
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Post Post #1200 (isolation #40) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:22 am

Post by Asphodel »

Here you go, Gin.

1. https://last-life.net/forums/viewtopic. ... 20#p306538: I'm Nighthawk (as in all games on this site). Mafia partners are Fiver/Damo, Kyoni/Gzgregory, Slike, and Jester (traitor). I voted for Jester once. That was because he was confirmed scum. Even then I did try to keep him alive a little bit longer by asking to have him killed by game mechanics. Also Jester was a traitor rather than one of the proper mafia team.

2. https://last-life.net/forums/viewtopic. ... 20#p286835 Mafia partners are Not Spy and Pyro Guy. Both were killed, I don't remember how. Never voted for either.

3. https://last-life.net/forums/viewtopic. ... &start=160 Partners: Pyro Guy and Boo Guy, never voted for either. Boo Guy was vigi'd N1

4. https://last-life.net/forums/viewtopic. ... 40#p239304 Partners: Golden Silver and Joey, never voted for either. Unfortunately this was the game before we started making people put their votes in red, so it's hard to tell when I actually voted with the default forum skin. I voted Sage of the Forest in my 7th post, Becky in the 3rd one from the bottom on the first page, Toby in the one immediately following it. And then AddThreeAndFive at some point after that.

5. https://last-life.net/forums/viewtopic. ... 40#p235792 Partners: Mashi and Super Goomba. No votes on the first page. Then AddThreeAndFive in my 4th post on pg 2, Becky 3 posts after that, Sage 4 posts after that, AddThreeAndFive 2 posts after that, BammerSteel 2 posts after that.

6. https://last-life.net/forums/viewtopic. ... 80#p232344Partners: Mr. E and Someone/Anyone. Bottom first page, voted for Liggy. Black Ghost 3 posts after that. 10 posts later, I vote for Mr. E. (this is the case where he made an implausible claim). 6 posts later, Mashi. Somewhere later, Doom.

7. https://last-life.net/forums/viewtopic. ... 80#p145283Partners: Super Goomba and Tutan. Sixth from the top on page 2, voted Black Ghost but expressed support for a Someone/Anyone lynch. 6 posts later I ask that the communal vigi power be used on Black Ghost. Third from the bottom on page 2, voted Mashi (Vera). Last post, voted BluEngie.

8. https://last-life.net/forums/viewtopic. ... 40#p136461Partners: Dark Koopa and BluEngie. Game aborted after a kind of weird scumslip. Still didn't vote for either of them before that happened.

9. https://last-life.net/forums/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=1934 I had no partners.

Those are all the games I rolled mafia on that forum. I also played fewer games of mafia on another forum with a lot of the same player base and rules. I'm not going to get the games from that forum because this is more than enough.
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Post Post #1239 (isolation #41) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 5:27 am

Post by Asphodel »

Reads list!

Lynch


All Alone
: I explained my thoughts in 1196.

Flubbernugget
: 711 seems towny. 716 is hardcore hedging his bets on Naomi's slip, which I don't like. Not a big fan of his entrance into the game or his original vote on me. Overall scum lean but there's not a whole lot to go off with this iso.

Krylea
: I don't like 1078. Yeah, I get that she was suspicious of Grey before he claimed. That doesn't explain why she went off and voted for me and then Ircher before going back to Grey. Rainbow Dash claiming miller doesn't prove that Grey isn't a cop. Gets town points for quickly claiming non-ascetic.

***************************************************************************************************

Two-Face
: Seems to be doing his own thing. His personality this far seems to be fairly consistent with what he'd predicted it would be early in the game. TF was pretty interested in seeing Ircher defend his vote on me. TF didn't seem to notice that one of the links in Ircher's writeup of me goes to an unrelated post. This is an example of good scumhunting on his part. Seems to have a few townreads as well.

Gin
: 485 is begging for towncred, so I'm a little lower on that one. I wasn't originally a huge fan of his interactions with Gamma (Naomi was right, he did keep commenting on Gamma being town early and then flipped), but at this point I'm sufficiently satisfied that the two aren't partners. The train of thought being suspicious of Grey and now leaning towards maybe trusting Rainbow Dash makes a decent amount of sense.

Ircher
: Looks more town the more I see of him. Townread on Grey actually seems pretty town to me. Like look—there’s a ton of scummy stuff he’s pointing out there. And he concludes basically that Grey’s almost conftown. Seems to me like he’s already read Grey town beforehand and is kind of forcing that into his readlist. This is a town move, not a scum one. I also think that he put in a shitload of effort into that readslist and should get credit for that. Some people will jump on his urging for me to be hammered without a claim. That's a bad move on his part and so clearly antitown that I consider it NAI. He's not lower because of earlier reasons I voted him (overly defensive of Gamma) and also because of his interaction w/ Naomi and Alisae (calling Naomi a white knight and saying she's acting differently from a different white knight he found).

***************************************************************************************************

Naomi-Tan
: I feel like this type of setup spec is something scum would censor themselves about but town might have a looser filter with. I also think her progression on Grey/RD seems town. I think scum would be more likely to take the popular position if they're late to the party on this, and I think siding with RD is slightly less popular. I also think that this sort of quick retraction she does comes more from town than scum. Would like to see her take a little more initiative in accusing other players of being red, it seems like she's playing a lot more on the defensive.

Human Sequencer
: His early reaction test on me made me think he was genuinely scumhunting even if I think the results were pretty flimsy. I like his recent posts about Krylea. 1063 and his subsequent pushing for ascetics to claim if they exist seem town-oriented to me. I disagree with his position on RD/Grey not working itself out, but I think it's the type of thing that comes from town rather than scum. Biggest thing I'm worried about with HS is his relationship with Ircher. He pretty consistently talks about how we need to wait on judging Ircher at the start of the game, which is the type of thing I might expect from scum worried his partner's getting jumped too early. I'm curious about what between like 150 and 450 made HS change his mind on Ircher.

Alisae
: I townread her earlier with this comment: "Her paranoia about lynchbait seems like it's coming from a less-experienced townie who found a new scumhunting heuristic and wants to try it out as much as possible. Her initial suspicion on Gin is actually pretty reasonable, and her subsequent vote on AA makes me think her panic was legit. I also think new scum would be far more hesitant to claim non-ascetic than she was." Since then, her vote on RainbowDash seems like a pretty natural progression from 931. I feel like someone said they thought that vote could be a bus. If it was, it was pretty fortunate that she happened to support the cop claim earlier on.

Gamma
: Honestly I'm ignoring Gamma right now.

Don't Lynch


Off on its own thing

Rainbow Dash
: See 1182 for more. I think there are issues with her breadcrumb. I think it doesn't make any sense for her to have claimed now if she's of the mindset that millers don't need to claim. I don't like that Grey was her top suspicion prior to her claim and she's still saying there's a 40% sizable chance he's townsided.

Grey
: I believe his claim. It's the more coherent of the two, and I think Rainbow Dash is probably scum. See 1182 for more.
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Post Post #1245 (isolation #42) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 5:30 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 1238, krylea wrote:I saw 1187, and thus I understand why you specifically are not voting there. But that still leaves AA, Alisae and Aspho.
I also explained why I'm not voting for either of those two. I believe Grey's claim. I don't want him to get NK'd. I think the best way to do that is to make it so if scum kill him they have to confirm Rainbow Dash as scum.

Also on the off chance I'm wrong and RD's telling the truth maybe something happens which proves Grey's lying, like a green result on an ascetic.
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Post Post #1247 (isolation #43) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 5:31 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 1242, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1239, Asphodel wrote:
Don't Lynch


Off on its own thing

Rainbow Dash
: See 1182 for more. I think there are issues with her breadcrumb. I think it doesn't make any sense for her to have claimed now if she's of the mindset that millers don't need to claim. I don't like that Grey was her top suspicion prior to her claim and she's still saying there's a 40% sizable chance he's townsided.

Grey
: I believe his claim. It's the more coherent of the two, and I think Rainbow Dash is probably scum. See 1182 for more.
It makes zero sense that you would put a scumread in a don't lynch list.
Actually that was just a formatting fuckup. I was trying to arrange the first list from "Lynch" to "Don't Lynch" and have you and RD off on your own thing.

but I'm also actually not in favor of lynching either of you today for reasons I've explained in my last post.
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Post Post #1353 (isolation #44) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:27 am

Post by Asphodel »

In post 1349, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:I have no faith that this town will understand how both of y'all are town and we are not forced to lynch either of you but when it happens, when can I say I told ya so?
How do you reconcile that with this quote?
In post 1046, Rainbowdash wrote:Yeah im claiming miller. It why I specifically asked about the type of result that he would get since my role is a bit vague regarding it,
but heavily implies that he would be getting guilty/not guilty instead of mafia as he suggested.
Pedit: Grey's above post has a leap in logic that strikes me as particularly coming from town as opposed to scum.
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