Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Hoopla]

Wow, lots of posts again.

I'd still prefer us to be locking Cloud into a hardclaim (he hasn't done that yet, right?) before we dismiss him today. Still catching up again, but will be considering Creature/gm/maria/Rask most likely.

[MariaR]

I could give a whole playbook on what I'd do as scum but that's shameless self meta wifom go ahead and lynh me I guess

[MariaR]

Can yall at least look into BV when I'm lynched all I ask lol

[BlackVoid]

I guess I'll ISO myself to see if I did anything scummy.

[MariaR]

At least I didn't ate too badly for one game
I still think yall need to rethink the town block I'm keeping my vote where it is but I'm content with being lynched
@Clear I'm not Cloud.

[Hoopla]

mmm, still not really feeling the maria lynch based on the hard-defenses and frankly, her strange catalogue of reads throughout the game. I just don't think it's as likely she presents such bizarre reads and chooses that line of interaction with Sotty -- you do this if you're super intune with the metagame and know how people are going to perceive you for doing it, and no offense to Maria, but I just don't see her as that type of player.

[aronagrundy]

Uh does maria usually claim at L-3?

[Raskolnikov]

FMpov if maria is scum it's probably with GM anyways. I know you guys don't have the same pov but I really would prefer goodmorning please.
The thing is this behaviour isn't particularly anything new for maria town so it feels more like a crapshoot.

If I could be sure it's MariaR and GoodMorning, I'd go with that. But I think there's an outside chance of you being scum which makes me hesitate and want to go for the read I'm more sure of. I guess I'll have to finish my ISO of you so I can sort you for good.

What are your other reads currently? Who are your surest townreads and what's your POE looking like?

You and jaack are clears with creature essentially clear.
Unsure on cloud with his latest post actually alright, although would judge him in massclaim anyways.
{GM, Hoopla, Maria} is what I'd accept today but I prefer GM to the others.
Cloud-Maria still something I rule out given their early play, although I'm worried now about making any association calls WRT to hoopla which I did have earlier.

Again, in the end this could just be done scorched earth style given the size of pool and number of clears so it probably doesn't actually matter but eh.

[aronagrundy]

@mod: can you give a votecount please?

[aronagrundy]

anyway, I would also be down for getting cloud to claim.

[aronagrundy]

VOTE: cloud

[BlackVoid]

mmm, still not really feeling the maria lynch based on the hard-defenses and frankly, her strange catalogue of reads throughout the game. I just don't think it's as likely she presents such bizarre reads and chooses that line of interaction with Sotty -- you do this if you're super intune with the metagame and know how people are going to perceive you for doing it, and no offense to Maria, but I just don't see her as that type of player.

My problem is if not MariaR, then who?

[Hoopla]

mmm, still not really feeling the maria lynch based on the hard-defenses and frankly, her strange catalogue of reads throughout the game. I just don't think it's as likely she presents such bizarre reads and chooses that line of interaction with Sotty -- you do this if you're super intune with the metagame and know how people are going to perceive you for doing it, and no offense to Maria, but I just don't see her as that type of player.

My problem is if not MariaR, then who?

Creature, obviously. I still don't know why people other than Rask are clearing him (and still am not sold on why Rask is).

Then one of goodmorning/Raskol.

[BlackVoid]

I don't know what to think of MariaR's VT claim but for now I'm fine with getting back on Cloud for a hard-claim and going from there.

VOTE: Cloud

This is L-2 so Hoopla, you should probably vote him if you want the claim.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Cloud

[Hoopla]

I don't know what to think of MariaR's VT claim but for now I'm fine with getting back on Cloud for a hard-claim and going from there.

VOTE: Cloud

This is L-2 so Hoopla, you should probably vote him if you want the claim.

He didn't claim last time we left him dangling and I don't want to open the door to a Maria quickhammer if she's scum and fears the lynch will turn on her today.

[BlackVoid]

Creature, obviously. I still don't know why people other than Rask are clearing him (and still am not sold on why Rask is).

Then one of goodmorning/Raskol.

Do you have any reason for scumreading Creature besides him not commenting after we both voted Sotty7? I think he's town but it's really hard to explain given his posting style.

[MariaR]

I'd never in my life quickhammer Cloud

[BlackVoid]

If he doesn't claim at L-1 with intent, what makes you think he'll claim at L-2?

[BlackVoid]

Never mind, did not see Rask's vote. He's at L-1.

[Hoopla]

Do you have any reason for scumreading Creature besides him not commenting after we both voted Sotty7? I think he's town but it's really hard to explain given his posting style.

PoE primarily.

And I find it strange people are so willing to dismiss him, when at this stage there are often decent reasons to dismiss a lot of players. For example, I feel like Maria's hard defenses are a better reason to dismiss someone than Creature's posting style.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.04

Raskolnikov (1)CloudKicker ,
Creature (1)MariaR ,
BlackVoid (1)goodmorning ,
CloudKicker (4)

Jaack , aronagrundy, BlackVoid, Raskolnikov L-1,

Not Voting (2)Hoopla , Creature

Day three deadline is Thursday December 1, 12 AM PST. (expired on 2016-12-01 00:00:00)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch!

[/size]

[Hoopla]

If he doesn't claim at L-1 with intent, what makes you think he'll claim at L-2?

...what makes you think he'd fullclaim by doing the same thing as before?

Cloud, prove me wrong and just full claim. The game isn't going anywhere until you do.

[BlackVoid]

And I find it strange people are so willing to dismiss him, when at this stage there are often decent reasons to dismiss a lot of players. For example, I feel like Maria's hard defenses are a better reason to dismiss someone than Creature's posting style.

I'm not townreading him for his posting style. I'm saying it's hard to explain my read on him because of how he posts but I'll give it a go.

First, there's my point on MichelSableheart - the way he asked me for opinions on you/Victor/GM/TwoFace and then went back to read with those in mind was probably town. Counter-intuitively, I think town are actually more receptive to listening to others and working with people. I don't think he'd be so blatant about buddying me as scum and he could have approached your conflict in other ways, ones that could be advantageous to him but his approach felt sincere.

Next, there's Creature replacing in and sort of doing the same thing D1. He said he'll help me push any other wagon as long as it's not on him. I think that's something scum would be too self-conscious to say. But if he's town and had me as a strong townread, I think he'd say that.

Then, there are his actual reads which aligned with mine pretty closely. I'm a little bothered that his four scumreads were the exact same ones I had but I don't think they were unreasonable. He scumread Sotty7, and had no hesitation in voting her. He did say PR-claim means we should wait but by itself, that's not telling. It seems to be common wisdom to leave PR claims alone for a day. The way Cloud did it struck me as scummy because he seemed so invested in Sotty7's survival. Creature didn't seem that way.

Finally, there's Sotty7's push on him. I think his vote on the wagon came across as easily attackable because he didn't give any reasons. It seemed more like that she was taking advantage of a townie who put down a weak vote on her as opposed to cross-bussing.

Can we discuss your read on Rask? More details on why you are scumreading him and whether it's a strong enough read that you are considering him as a lynch for today.

[Hoopla]

The stuff about Michel is specious D1 reasoning which is fine for D1, but doesn't hold much weight over time given a lot more meaningful things have happened throughout the game. About Creature specifically, I feel like he is such a different player to you with such a different mindset that when you start saying things like

"I expect that's something that scum would be too self-conscious to say"

it weakens your case, because you're clearly applying a broad understanding of how scum play to a very niche and unusual player. I just don't think you can be so confident with your expectations about very different players. Really, a lot of your case hinges on you knowing what to expect from him, and it's very easy to subconsciously project what you'd do as scum in a given situation and assume they're reading the same playbooks as you and would do the same.

Finally, there's Sotty7's push on him. I think his vote on the wagon came across as easily attackable because he didn't give any reasons. It seemed more like that she was taking advantage of a townie who put down a weak vote on her as opposed to cross-bussing.

Sotty was a pretty good busser, and I don't think she'd deviate too far from her meta in her return game to not muddy the waters with some good distancing somewhere along the line. Looking at how her partners react to her seems like a more fruitful line of inquiry.

Can we discuss your read on Rask? More details on why you are scumreading him and whether it's a strong enough read that you are considering him as a lynch for today.

PoE again, really. I feel like he's been key in narrowing down the lynch pool away from Creature who I suspect, without directly doing it, and if there was to be a bussing vote on Sotty's wagon it's likely to have been Rask. I feel like I'm really digging my heels in on my Maria read and ultimately, would probably lynch Rask over her. Creature is still my pick and I haven't thought enough about where goodmorning fits in all this, but she's there too.