Mini Normal #1838 Mafia PT
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Hey there,
I'm pretty busy this weekend so I might not be much better than Slandaar until Sunday, but I'll do what I can. Just a heads up on my style as scum: I don't really like to take the lead, instead I prefer angling for a good position. In particular, I do not like to be the one bussing ever.
Still need to catch up on things (Only up to page 12) but I'll likely unvote boring next post, in the event I do keep it I will keep the arguments relatively ineloquent as to be genuine but unconvincing so as to keep them on the path to a mislynch.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Not a problem I'm excited to play, let's rock and roll. I think Zoronos/nn30 are going to be borderline unlynchable but the rest of the game seems vulnerable. I'm probably just going to sit on my implosion vote for the remainder of the day and spin accordingly.
@LUV just a heads up that you should expect me to post this at some point, not today but in future days:
In post 488, Prism wrote:In the meantime I'm going to VOTE: boring whose #196 left me wondering if she was trying to find inconsistencies or trying to find scum.In post 522, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I don't know how to put my feelings about her [boring] into the words but I can't shake this vibe from her. I think it's mainly her vote on Zoro, which read more to me as nitpicking about inconsistencies rather than looking for scum.
How is it that, as town, you read someone's first post and agree with it to the point of borderline plagiarism, then consider that "nothing to go off of?In post 522, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Prism - Just subbed in. Nothing to go off of.
The wording will likely change depending on context but you get the gist. It doesn't appear anyone else noticed it so you likely won't have to worry about it for awhile. I think everyone's doing a good job so far and that we're on track.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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You're going to be forced to claim pretty soon, I hate to pressure you but if that lynch goes through we're sunk, I think there'll be way too many obvious towns after you flip to really salvage it minus a hail mary.
Originally I was going to vote you but I don't think that's the best angle for me to take right now.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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I'm going to hammer sit, I do not think at all that we can afford to lose you Day 1 but I can't afford to do much more rallying. If Eager does wind up lynched, though, I want to be the one to hammer it.
Given what you said here:
it'll be difficult to sell a Neopolitan claim. I'd start shopping around for a role that would make you doubt two ascetics would be in play.I think we've had quite enough role claims for Day 1, but suffice it to say that I find it very, very unlikely that we have two ascetics. That is, unless the mod is a sadist. I also think it would be absolutely pointless for there to be a mafia ascetic. That is, unless things are far more complex than they appear from my point of view.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Problem with the neopolitan claim is that you explicitly said "I think it would be pointless for there to be a mafia ascetic" when one town one mafia would make a lot of sense were you Neopolitan. They can't both be mafia-either they're both town or one is mafia. Two town plus a town neopolitan is what makes little sense. Motion Detector can work, there's a lot of them.
If a stronger investigative role counterclaims you that'd be one of the best case scenarios we could get out of it I think. Claiming is your last resort-at that point we're taking what we can get.
I'm not going to do it too much but it's basically my gift to LUV in the event I go down with you. Me pressuring the third scum won't really seem very likely. As far as reducing my own chance of being lynched for trying to rescue you, I'm already very far down that rabbit hole with the eager vote+implosion push. If I get lynched for it it's going to happen anyway.By the way, do you think it's necessary to pretend to go after LUV at this point? We don't want it to look like you're trying to rescue me.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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I'm pretty safe right now, I agree, I'm even townread by several-the worry is that we need to get a total of 3 mislynches, minimum, to win. I can definitely get one, two is questionable, three seems exceedingly difficult. I'm town, but I'm the least town of the towns.
After you get lynched, it will be incredibly hard to lynch any of Shadow, Maria, Implosion, nn30, Zoronos, or Eager. That leaves us with 3 of Gamma/PP/Dierfire/Grendel to go. Today's our chance to make Eager happen and I want it pretty badly.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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If you need to replace out, I would say replace out the next day and explain that you've gotten too busy rather than just silently night replacing (and maybe include a line like "For my replacement, my final reads are as follows..." at the end).
Up to you, whatever you feel most comfortable with. I think you're doing fine.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Great job everybody, really glad we made it theough that.
Despite being a likely PR, Shadow is an asset, so I'd keep him around. He's very, very off track and is lynchable given a few key town deaths.
Implosion is never getting lynched and is a solid kill, but doing so also implicates you and to a lesser extent helps Shadow. This makes him a great Neo target.
Zoronos death implies scum is outside you (well, moreso than others anyway) but he's also offtrack and lynchable.
Nn30 isn't getting lynched and is never quite on the right track. I say we keep him and maybe Neo him another night if you're still around.
Dier, PP, Gamma, and Grendel are obviously not our kill choices for tonight.
Maria, on the other hand, currently has 5 correct townreads (not including herself) and is going to he spectacularly hard to get lynched if/when you flip scum. If left alive she is practically guaranteed to deathtunnel you and win.
In my opinion, she needs to go ASAP. She's going to be a nightmare to get lynched and chances are she's not misvoting more than once max.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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I'm playing for LyLo now but I would say it's important not to be too clean, lest I be expected to die earlier. I'd prefer a lynch on Zoronos over either of you, especially boring, today and despite my vote will be pursuing lines of conversation in that direction.
It's also critical that youpretend that I am not the scum going to LyLo. Attempts to distance from me or mislead can have the opposite effect if seen through.
In particular, LUV, I think you should avoid addressing me or even mentioning me for the rest of the day. If you go down, I can spin it later as you wanting to avoid a losing 1v1 with me by ignoring me and hoping no one else follows me.
That said, I think there's a long list of people more worth killing at every stage, but it's important to keep in mind.
Implosion is a clear waiting to happen, the report's out and Gamma will one day flip, so he's a sunk cost. He dies either tonight or the next night.
Big question to keep in mind for tonight is whether or not to keep Gamma. Implosion is a town clear waiting to happen (Can't undo a Gamma report and some day Gamma will flip) and is a lot more on track than any other town right now, making him a safe kill. On the other hand killing Gamma just eats that cost early and gives no other reports.
If we leave him alive, we're running a lot of risk for a chance at a mislynch at him. A report on me is unlikely but loses us the game. A report on boring is devastating even if she wins the cc. A report on LUV means we left him alive for nothing. We can get him lynched if he gives a town report, but ones on Zoronos/PenguinPower would be devastating and ones on Grendel/Dierfire still undesirable. So far I'd lean that we should kill him.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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As for boring, as far as interacting with me goes, I think you should go on the opposite end of LUV.
I think you should play as if you're the one going to LyLo, but if you want to leave me something to use if/when you flip scum later, I think you should be pretty persistent in responding to me as if I were town in need of convincing that I should follow your read or that my uncertainty about you should be dispersed. You don't have to overdo it, I'm having a hard time describing what I'm envisioning, but maybe just 2-3 sentences trying to persuade me of something every so many posts. A good, subtle thing to do would not to issue a frustrated response to me (and not to be the one to mention it) as I voiced my displeasure with it in my recent post. I can use it later to cite it, and the persuasion earlier, as you trying to get me on your side and changing your behavior accordingly. These also set up a good potential for me to switch off of you if we ever get to a 5/6 person MyLo situation and someone else thinks you're town.
This works in reverse as well. If I flip scum it makes little sense to spend so much time trying to earnestly persuade your partner of anything. It was just a wrong townread.
These are just my thoughts on the course of the game but I've been pretty absent and may not have the best grasp of the game, I'm not trying to be a scum dictator. You're both doing great and we've made a good recovery from the dire straits of earlier.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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You can pretend this sentence isn't there, it's from a prior draft whose context is long since gone.In post 97, Prism wrote:That said, I think there's a long list of people more worth killing at every stage, but it's important to keep in mind.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Well, two people asked me to point them in the right direction on LUV
It's time to give them the runaround, finish my wall of a project read on Zoronos tomorrow along with a throwaway pointer halfway through to #1686 and #1689 which aren't fleshed out enough for anyone to really find very convincing, and then actually explain it later if appropriate.
Here's hoping for Zoro or PP.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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The name of the game is "How badly can they manage to fuck this one up?" because this is town's game to lose.
Implosion/Zoronos are ready to take the game and go home. Until they're both dead me/boring are both in a lot of danger, and that won't be for at least three more nights.
If Zoronos jails right tonight we're fucked. I really want to kill Implosion over Zoronos N3 but I doubt we'll be able to afford it-a scum lynch Day 3 or Day 4 gives town a guaranteed clear at best, the last scum on a platter at worst.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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We hit Gamma here. Zoronos will not jail Gamma as this gives town no information (It's an even number of players and thus town wants a night death) and leaves them negative at worst (Zoronos dies and blocked Gamma in the process)
Therefore he will jail outside. If he jails correctly, regardless of who we kill, they will get a cop report and a confirmed scum via jailblock no matter what. We can't control that. So assuming he jails incorrectly, if we kill him they still get a cop report, versus if we kill Gamma they only have the jail information (useless as two mafia-he could have just jailed the wrong one)
We must also kill Zoronos N3 regardless of who is lynched tomorrow. If only one scum is left, the player jailed the night he dies is clear. He will announce his jail publicly beforehand. WIFOMing a no kill to get a mislynch is possible N3, but at some point he will have to be killed (and town therefore granted a clear in a one scum scenario)
Note that in the event one of us WIFOMs with a no kill to get a mislynch, we are forced to kill the next night or else we give them a mislynch for free. Think of it as though you got a lynch on MYLO and then no killed-it's the same thing, but with different # of mislynches remaining.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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I feel like we shouldn't neo PP. We don't really care too much if he's a PR. He's the major alternative lynch to you-if you're successful Day 2 he'll be forced to claim anyway. Even if he is a PR who's not forced to claim he won't be immune like Zoro and Shadow, and we already know Zoro is whi we need to kill N3.
We already know what Gamma/Zoro/Shadow/Implosion are. We know we don't want PP. That leaves nn30, Dierfire, and Grendel. I think all three are pretty good neo targets, my first instinct would be to neo Grendel but that's just instinct-I've barely read any of yhe three.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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You're right and I was just running through the permutations.
I agree that me making the night kill is probably our best best.
Kill: Gamma Emerald
As far as the Neo target goes that was just my first instinct-if you think nn30 is better I'll trust your judgment as I haven't much thought into it.
Shadow is at least going to 5 way and probably to 3 way, maybe Dierfire would make it instead depending on how his read on me grows.
I'm probably just going to claim either VT, depending on how many other PR claims we have it might be a good idea for me to claim One Shot Bulletproof.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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The ball's in your court today, you're honorary scum leader. I'm running a risk with that vote on you, I had a much larger case but it's obviously not a good idea to go ham on you here. My post is just enough so that no one can claim I wasn't pushing you, and no more beyond that. My goal for the day is to let you parry that and hopefully get a Grendel/nn30 lynch instead as I've left room open for myself to vote outside you.
Implosion's entrance is what makes or breaks the day, if he agrees with me and tries to wagon you (which seems likely based off his scumread prior) we'll be in a bad spot. If he doesn't and goes on anyone else, even me, we'll be golden for quite awhile. I'll throw my weight in a different direction if I need to.
Shadow continues to pay dividends.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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I might finish my long-promised ISO on Dierfire early because god knows we can't afford Zoronos giving town another clear. I can handle all of Dier/PP/Grendel but I really,reallydon't want to go against nn30 at any point. I've gone too far in in my townread on him.
Shadow is going to have to be one of the mislynches if you go down today.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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I'd keep the interactions with the unconfirmed towns pretty minimal-if you want to implicate nn30, any convincing should be aimed primarily at implosion (ie. like a paragraph each). I wouldn't appeal more than a short sentence or two to nn30.
If you really want to help clear me further, the answer is probably to give less attitude rather than more. Having a post, friendly in tone, 1-2 paragraphs long basically being like, "Hey Prism, I don't know for sure but I'm leaning that you're town because of this, and if you are this is a really bad situation that's just going to lead to a mislynch, thing is I'm town too so let's go to couples counseling, I think you're off track, I realize the LUV lynch doesn't make me 100% town, but I really didn't have to do that, I think we should go on _ or _ instead. Sorry for being snappy earlier, I know it's not helping" would be nice. Simultaneously, don't overdo it and overact.
The intuition behind this is that scum need the votes of their partners less. Giving me attitude is interacting with me for the sake of doing it-you're either dismissing me hoping no one will listen or interacting with me for the sake of it. We want to make it seem the former.
Imagine a hypothetical world in which I'm town and you're scum with someone else. You're seeing me tunneling you, and people are coming around and starting to listen. The snappy dismissals aren't working, and you're not confident in your partner's ability to carry the game without you, so you're really trying to live, and that requires not getting in a shitflinging fest with town-me, especially not that people are coming around. Scumreading me and trying to get me lynched is kind of suicidal at this juncture (and, outside of our hypothetical, just makes it look even more like distancing). At the same time, townreading me full-on just kind of seals your fate and removes your options. You've got to work your way out of this one somehow-and this is my suggestion for how this hypothetical scenario would look.
Again, a suggestion as always, you've still done great and we've gotten unfortunate on many levels.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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EBWOPIn post 144, Prism wrote:Giving me attitude is either trying to dismiss me and hope no one follows, or interacting with me for the sake of doing it-you're either dismissing me hoping no one will listen or interacting with me for the sake of it. We want to make it seem the former.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Also, on the bright side, Grendel is paving the way for a mislynch on him followed by a mislynch on Shadow.
On the downside, Zoronos is going to get a jail, and I hope and pray to god he doesn't announce it.
If at any point you're granted the chance to quickhammer, I'd do it depending on who it is. It's definitely a worthwhile trade (ex. think how much better we'd be off if we'd have had LUV quickhammer Gamma vs. hoping he dodged a lynch he wound up not being able to)-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Will do so.
If you want a claim, I would either claim bulletproof (One shot, but idk if you'd have any incentive to out that as town) or VT.
BP makes sense as town to balance out JK (throws uncertainty as to why kill failed) and there's a chance you'll draw a cc. If you do, I can spin it to be either a preplanned fakeclaim (as there's daychat) or claim it myself on a consecutive day.
If there is a bulletproof in the game it would likely be Grendel.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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And yeah you're right the game is a lot of fun, I never really mind if it ends in a loss, especially if it winds up being very close. It's fun to see your limits.
You've played this really well in recent days by the way so great job!
That said, this game is a mountain right now that I'm eventually going to have to climb solo. It's not a sprint. It's a long, arduous journey uphill with dangerous heights and tricky navigations galore. There are checkpoints along the way and the climb gets increasingly harder after each, and if my ego gets in the way or I get complacent, or do the equivalent of tossing a bag of food off the side by letting Zoro have his jail, my chance of scaling it goes down significantly.
It's a mountain all right, and I'm taking it one rock at a time.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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I'm likely going to claim VT as well, I'm very wary of town having another non-VT role of some sort, so the BP claim is still up for grabs if you want it, it's just mildly risky. Even/Odd Night Commuter is also a good claim (Though I doubt there's incentive to out which as town). We can't afford for me to get trapped in a cc with anyone here.
I also wouldn't quickhammer ever at this juncture even if it wins a mislynch. You're not as closed to being lynched, if you hammer it confirms that you're confident in your partner getting a back to back mislynch. We don't want that.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Me claiming VT over BP is likely a mistake but too late now. I probably could have gotten a mislynch on PP with it and leave you with one more to go.
The amount of town power in this is pretty insane, the cop/deputy+jailkeeper combo is ridiculous. We kill Zoronos tonight imo, in an ideal world PP investigates you tonight and you 1v1 tomorrow. If he guilties me at least we probably get a mislynch out of it. We don't want anymore innocents. Killing PP and having you lynched tomorrow gives them a report anyway, so we might as well try and get something out of it.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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I don't think jailing PP is the move as scum here. I'm going to assume we get Grendel lynched today.In post 163, boring wrote:Anyway, I don't see how we'd have much choice but to kill penguin first. That is, if I live today. Every day that he gets another conf. town or another conf. scum is another disadvantage. Zoronos at least likes us both, and so it less likely to target us for jailkeeping. Then again, what do you think are the chances that he'd keep penguin tonight?
If we kill PP tonight the game is left with the following state going into Day 4:
Unclears:
-Prism
-boring
-Dierfire
-nn30
-Shadow
Clears:
-Zoronos
-Implosion
Town has a mislynch. If either of us gets lynched, town gets a report via Zoronos jailkeep. That means we'd have to 1. Not get hit by the Zoronos jailkeep 2. Lynch both of Shadow+whichever of nn30/Dierfire he doesn't jail. Post Grendel flip I think it's highly likely that one of us gets lynched over anyone else, because it's implosion's town and he's out for your blood. I get the impression he has the feeling that I'm scum but can't really seem to put a handle on why. Either way, I doubt we're getting a mislynch in this hypothetical day.
If we kill Zoronos tonight instead of PP, the state of the game is:
Unclears:
-Prism
-boring
-Dierfire
-PP
-nn30
-Shadow
Clears:
-Implosion
-Possibly PP's innocent.
Here, PP will either clear one of nn30/Dierfire, or guilty one of us. If he guilties one of us, we can 1v1 him and try to get a mislynch, and town doesn't get an extra clear. If he outs an innocent on PP/Dierfire, that was probably happening anyway, but we still have the chance of mislynching PP. ie. We have to lynch 2/3 of PP/notreport/Shadow rather than 2/2 of notreport/Shadow.
On the flipside, the jailclear can be justified by claiming there's a mafia strongman, so town might not consider it a clear. It's a really tough choice tonight.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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EBWOPIn post 164, Prism wrote:I don't think jailing PP is the move as Zoro here-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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Oh yeah we're killing PP-question is who does it. I'm inclined to think Zoro will jail nn30 or Dierfire. However, I can definitely see him deciding to test out his read on me given the Grendel flip and Implosion and Grendel's expressed doubts on me. Simultaneously, he may decide to sheep implosion and jail you. Right now I'm of the opinion that you're less likely to be blocked but I really need to think about it more. What do you think?-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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And yeah I've definitely talked some smack here, and I did so knowing Shadow will eventually read it and thinking he needed an ego check. (Assuming we offer up our PT, which is fine with me) Admittedly unnecessary, but seeing his current attitude even after he's been called out now multiple times doesn't make me feel bad at all. I had something typed up but I don't want to kick him when he'll be down having seen the flips. I'll save my patronizing/old person bullshit/hypocritical speech on the values of humility and cooperation for the postgame. I mean, he's probably going to win, and I'm not, and that's something.-
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Prism AnyDispersion of InsightAny
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