Dead Thread - Mini Normal 1829

[mhsmith0]

Wow fear killed that quickly, huh? Or maybe it was the result of my BG shot?

[mhsmith0]

More seriously I consider it HIGHLY likely Nero was shot last night. Part of why I used the BG shot was that if he wasn't shot, his SK equity went through the roof. Him getting shot there suggests that he's probably exactly what he said he was.

[mhsmith0]

Like, 10% chance I was actually shot for some bizarre reason and 90% chance I explicitly saved Nero last night. Not sure if town will realize that I almost certainly BG'd Nero or Giga, and probably Nero for the claim. We'll see I guess.

[mhsmith0]

btw, when I say stuff like "I take generally solid night actions" (cough, cough, open 646), the BG on Nero would be a good example. That's mechanically the correct play there, especially given the possibility of SK equity. I didn't ever spend all that much time reading the game, since I figured that if Nero was shot I'd die, and if he wasn't, then I needed to look a lot harder at an SK possibility.

[mhsmith0]

@Shadow: I agree with you that day talk makes a game more fun, and I like to have it in my games. That said, wrt balance you're wrong.

Town:
Tracker
3-shot GS
2-shot BG
2-shot vig
VT's

Scum:
Vanilla Cop
Goon
Goon?

With this power distribution, it's scum-sided by MS standards. Compare it to the game I modded:

Town:
Tracker
Doctor
Vig
1-shot BP

Scum:
Encryptor
1-shot Strongman
Goon

Doctor/full vig/BP is much stronger than 2-shot vig / 3-shot GS / 2-shot BG (BG is a crap power, mainly a +1 to give town a very little extra something that SOMETIMES dovetails with other powers in a temporarily useful way, i.e. to give a useful town PR one more night after outing). Tracker is a relatively weak investigative role in a game this size, especially with at least one scum power that can visit. Scum vanilla cop is a pretty useful power IMO, because it can be used to find PR's much quicker and because it can reasonably be used in a seemingly townie way.

[mhsmith0]

One of the big edges to scum in a normal game is that it's not an open setup, so they can fake claim (Maria can speak to this pretty effectively ). That tactical option is a really big deal, especially in a setup where frankly most of the town power sucks. The vig can easily hit a town PR (it's a real down side to having a vig), the GS can get a fake guilty on a vig, and the tracker can get a fake inno on the vanilla cop.

Now, i don't know for sure that the last wolf is a goon, but balance wise I'd pretty much assume it to be the case. A mafia doctor would be REALLY unbalanced IMO given the general lack of town power, especially since it drastically nerfs the vig (1/3 chance of getting a mafia kill blocked by the doc IF he shoots mafia) and the gunsmith (false inno). That'd be way too much scum power against the limited town power. So it's probably just VC/goon/goon, and I guess that means likely elyse then?

[mhsmith0]

There was one time I subbed in and claimed full cop (in a game where all the cops were conditional one-shot) with a "missing" peek and then blamed it on my predecessor. Somehow didn't get lynched. That was the most fun I've ever had as a wolf
subbed in here
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post360343
and was shamelessly useless and took wolfy in-thread shots (you could day vig in this game, but with really low accuracy), and yet survived to the end. Was great

[mhsmith0]

I'd venture a guess but that would involve reading and thinking

[mhsmith0]

Thor used zero shots. Not entirely sure why but again, wasn't reading carefully so idk.

[mhsmith0]

Well, I guess karnos also being a town pr would be weird. Otoh if he's just ascetic townie it's such an odd power, could well see him getting policied for it. Five town PRs itself can create doubt about whether the roles are legit or not. Though it does argue against fake claiming being useful I guess...

[mhsmith0]

Anyway my death conf towns Nero if ever there was doubt. No way does sk Nero randomly shoot me there.

[mhsmith0]

Did I just get the easiest win ever? Crossing fingers...

[mhsmith0]

Just skimming, karnos's lazy meaningless vanity vote on shadow (which is quickly abandoned) seems to mimic his lazy meaningless vanity vote on wolf bro transcend in open 646. so from that alone I could see a connection.

Also skimming karnos ISO...
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8321634 talking ABOUT shadow not TO shadow
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8347634 mediocre question to shadow
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8356222 easy question to ask to shadow
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8363862 meh interaction
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8363871, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8363906, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8363914 plausible distancing/bussing posts

At the least, karnos isn't making his interactions with his buddies numerous and looking good (though not as blatant as in 646 w trans). Could easily be the last wolf.

[mhsmith0]

btw IF karnos was actually ascetic goon I'd call the setup scum-sided by MS standards.

Two mafia PR's, including one investigative (that can be verified as an actual role by the tracker) and a second that is immune to BOTH town investigative roles... that's a lot of scum power against town power that basically sucks (ZERO ability to stop night kills [BG only switches the victim unlike doc/JK], and the potential to vig PR's, and the potential for the BG to accidentally save scum). If the vig doesn't kill scum, and does kill at least one villager that scum aren't simultaneously shooting (and that happens reasonably often), then scum only need three mislynches to win. A game that can potentially be won D3 is a pretty nice edge, plus gunsmith gets a false guilty and one block.

[mhsmith0]

Shadow's trolling I bet lol

definitely possible. Twilight trolling is fun, highly recommended

[mhsmith0]

I'd still hold up IV's fake scum claim at
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7983722
as a fantastic example of effort. Amusingly, BTD's reaction was garbage but somehow got town read, but kappy (the other wolf) reacted really well, and was a big part of why they won. So fake scum claims don't always work that well, but it can still be fun to mess with the board (if you guys lynched me final 5 in 646 I was definitely going to do an actual effort at a fake scum claim FWIW).

[mhsmith0]

I still think the best course of action is to kill

Spoiler:

giga

Unless you're trolling I disagree. That's a plausible setup spec lynch I think.

[mhsmith0]

Wifom kills in MYLO/LYLO do happen though. Would be a bit annoying to eat a loss here, though in fairness it's not like I did all that much to earn to a win

[mhsmith0]

I find kill motive is abut clearer in early days. When you only need one mislynch, wifom kills can be effective.

[mhsmith0]

I think I'm going to be amused regardless of result here. I've had a bunch of losses as town I completely didn't deserve, this was basically a drive by either way.

[mhsmith0]

wait, there was a gunsmith guilty and thor didn't BG the gunsmith? umm...

[mhsmith0]

yeah now I'm REALLY glad I BG'd the guy who got shot. Justifying the non protect would have been hard mode.

[mhsmith0]

Don't think so

[mhsmith0]

Gigas now either scum or conf!town, making no lynch pointless.

[mhsmith0]

No no I'm the last one. Mod trolled with my flip, everyone knows that bg has to be unbalanced here.

[mhsmith0]

Calling it evidence against elyse being wolf is fine. Calling it lock anything is imo silly.

[mhsmith0]

One of the nice things about mylo/ lylo a one wolf left is you can really dig into the game state and see who does or doesn't make sense. Part of why I enjoy late game fwiw.

[mhsmith0]

No idea. It vaguely reminds me of postie's mysterious spreadsheet. Probably worth asking post game.

That said, there's nothing clearing about shadows rvs vote on kraska. It's super easy to cast a "l-1" vote that is very obviously not l-1.

[mhsmith0]

It is called conf bias mh

One of the most powerful weapons in scum arsenal.

[mhsmith0]

That's practically a scum claim from kraska.

[mhsmith0]

I don't think I would unless I was clear town read and even then I'd feel slimy about it.

[mhsmith0]

And a cheap win if you're scum

[mhsmith0]

Unless it's just a careless moment. But yeah fair point.

[mhsmith0]

I mean they'd had a TR on me for a lot of the game too

[mhsmith0]

Guess it wasn't kraska after all

[mhsmith0]

although having mhsmith here would be really nice because he's good at lylo

[mhsmith0]

Go town!

[mhsmith0]

Subs in, dies, loses

[mhsmith0]

Locking w/o flipping is weird though.

[mhsmith0]

I really don't get why towns get super lazy late game so often. Just so weird imo; to me it's the MOST interesting part.

[mhsmith0]

2.5 hours after lock and no flip?

[mhsmith0]

If it's mechanically possible to hit next day, like a secret bp, then run night. Else just end it. Or explicitly say you're running speed deadlines and end it when you get the kill order. Waiting 48 hours is basically point less.

[mhsmith0]

Also the victory condition matters. If it's "majority or nothing can prevent it, then game is presumably won.

[mhsmith0]

Either way you should flip lynch asap, say night has fallen, and if you want/need to end game you can.

[mhsmith0]

Presumably.

[mhsmith0]

I think in zero worlds a wolf doesn't hammer ftw there.