Mini 1820 — Lazy Summer Mafia (Game Over)

[Raskolnikov]

Alright. After a ton work of work I can post my findings. May this be glorified in postgame or, alternatively, go down as a story of hubris.

First was going over my townreads. ReISOing.
infinity and Manuel I am positive are town. Btw, that infinity lynch isn't happening, ever, he's basically an alternate me in how he analyses this game.
LQ, kraska, and MariaR(rem) I'm 95% on now. LQ's a bit wild but what I said earlier still mostly applies. His read/case on infinity I heavily disagree with but like manuel the approach is town. Kraska's complicated but the gist of it is the only thing that stops me from being positive is there's a tiny chance she's played an amazing scumgame and faked townanalysis on a nachomamma level, which is rare and she's probably the only townread here capable of faking it all entirely intentionally. MariaR(rem) is also complicated, I get a ton of tone and emotional towntells and it's similar to how naomi was but just not quite as good, with some meta check. Even saying this though I don't think any are realistically scum; below the other 2 doesn't actually mean weak in this context. Just that inf/manuel are even stronger.

I will go into a specific read if required but going into all of them would end up 500+ words, spam the thread and most importantly probably doesn't even change people's minds on x read. I know at this point expressing this kind of townread confidence comes off as somewhere between naivety or excessive pride or arrogance, but it can't be helped. I've done this before on smaller scales with decent results though hopefully I get to use this as an example going forward.

The rest of the playerlist are potential scum. Jarjar's pretty null altogether and I think he could fake this level of play without problems. Slandaar townread I mostly overvalued one specific attitude and I kind of ignored him because he pushed the same as me yesterday. Rb(FA) might the best of this bunch as his earlygame and impetus was still good but rereading the LQ exchange (plus that weirdness "I refuse to vote my scumread because another scumread is on it") I can't put him solid town. DGB's probably scum as is hiplop(aristo) via that slot. Admittedly it's annoying hip came in because I can't really read him personally.

That's a pool of 5, with 10 combinations of teams. Now one of my favourite things to look for are "negative" associations. Finding things which suggest people could be scum together is well and good but not so good in accuracy, but interactions that I'm positive scum don't do I can feel good relying on (similar to townhunting vs scumhunting imo).

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
First thing I feel really good about ruling out is FA(rb)/DGB. I could go more into this if necessary, but rb seems genuinely interested in DGB during d1. 614 stands out and I also don't think rb's approach on dgb around this time (ctrl-f DGB in the ISO for efficiency) is how scum defend scum. Notably it looks DGB voting slandaar actually influences what rb does in a way that wouldn't makes sense for daytalk scum. I kind of want to just assume rb is town for this even but I'd feel it might be careless, rb following townself logic might still be able to do this and I haven't seen his offsite body of work, but at the very least I can rule this one out. Technically also rb himself being less likely scum than the others makes me more comfortable ruling this out. FA himself and fa/dgb post replace is kind of inconclusive but it doesn't destroy or take anything away from the rb stuff. Unfortunately even though both voted slandaar I can't find any negative association I feel very strongly about there especially as the wagon was unlikely to go anywhere; rb with slandaar seems eh though.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
This isn't as strong but I think hiplop(aristo)/jarjar is very unlikely. Mainly from 1466. It's actually really interesting, jarjar essentially was looking at hiplop's games with DGB to compare it to hiplop's interactions with DGB here. I don't think it's definitive ruling out dgb/jarjar, as scum could have motivation to setup an association here especially considering how DGB looks, but scumjarjar doing this to scumhiplop is almost inconceivable. It doesn't make hip look good, why would scum jarjar casually cast doubt on hip if they're scum together like this? If it's to open up bussing if hip gets lynched it's incredibly creative, and the only other reason would be in some weird way if they tried to push the reverse angle on this if DGB is town and give hip credit. But it makes no sense. Jarjar in general is among the better of this 5 but his scumgame onsite really impressed me and I know he has a lot of offsite exp so I don't feel safe ruling him out. I've seen him meta here and in town games often but not in that scumgame (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... ser_sort=G); but common sense says even if he would employ meta as scum it would either be to discredit town, defend a partner or maybe rarely bussing. But this usage kind of accomplishes nothing if they're s/s.

Just ruling those 2 reduces it to 4 teams, which I've sorted through reading FA(rb) and jarjar individually as more likely town than the others. There's other interactions but I don't feel any of them are strong enough to rule things out like the above.

Hiplop(aristo), Slandaar, DGB <- my pick
Slandaar, Jarjar, DGB
FA, Hiplop, Slandaar
FA, Slandaar, Jarjar [very unlikely]

Now there's a few things here. Even though his ISO isn't that bad either one of townreads is wrong(probably not), one of the negative associations is wrong (very doubtful), or slandaar's scum. Given he's not been THAT involved and very experienced I can definitely see him playing this way as it. Looking at slandaar again is kind of worrying though since there are a few things I pickup which are usually towntells for me. Looking at his meta though I see similar as both unfortunately, altogether he looks really good with scum and I don't think I can reliably read him. Don't really know if DGB/slan is beyond distancing; watcher claim is actually the kind of the thing slandaar would tell a scumbuddy to do(looking at pts). Slan talking with rb is ehh, slan is like tying to get him to play better which is usually a VI thing but could maybe come from scum being annoyed their partner is playing like that? Rb engages the discussion so slan was kind of required to say something back, and because of that it doesn't necessarily have to have serve any purpose beyond being a response. Doesn't seem interested in reading him through their engage.

One thing I feel safe assuming is about slandaar's play around the hiplop(aristo) case I made; I think that if slandaar is scum that reaction only makes sense if aristo(hiplop) is as well (not vice-versa though, hiplop scum doesn't have to be with slandaar). I think slandaar did look and give attention to the case and if asked would have brought out examples why. But I don't see why as scum he would go there for an innocent. Unless it was intended as buddying or to get towncred somehow, but indirectly buddying the lurker is a weird goal to have and even doing that I don't think he'd bother going that far. It'd have been buddying an inactive and soon to replace slot, or defending for towncred something unlikely to get lynched anyways, both I really doubt happened.
If this is assumed, take away 2 more (the jarjar teams, because of rb jarjar thing) leaving 2 teams. I also doubt slandaar/FA based on their interactions although I'm not 100% ruling that out.
Slandaar looking at DGB meta otoh I don't think the same applies, DGB is very possibly a lynch and distancing/bussing via meta like this is possible. Especially convenient if you come back to it on like d3 and try to take towncredit then.
But at this point I'm not convinced slandaar is 100% scum; I don't think I've made a mistake in talking about associations but it's possible one of my townreads is wrong. I draw the line at the 3, with it being conceivable one (just one though) of kraska/lq/maria are wrong. Accounting for this and dividing into 2 scenarios, depending on slandaar's alignment.

Slandaar scum:
Hiplop(aristo), Slandaar, DGB <- #1
FA, Hiplop, Slandaar <- #2
Hiplop, Slandaar, Mistaken Townread <- #3 [feels very unlikely that both DGB and FA are town over one of the townreads though]

Slandaar town:
Hiplop(aristo), Mistaken Townread, DGB <- #4
FA, Hiplop, Mistaken Townread <- # 5
Mistaken Townread, Jarjar, DGB <- # 6
FA, Mistaken Townread, Jarjar [negligible? would require DGB and hip both being town over one of my townreads, plus FA and jarjar BOTH being scum when they don't look that bad]

Organising again, these feel most likely
Hiplop(aristo), Slandaar, DGB <- #1
Hiplop(aristo), Mistaken Townread, DGB <-
FA, Hiplop, Slandaar <- maybe
FA, Hiplop, Mistaken Townread <- eh
~Kind of doubt 3/6 though.

Now the thing is, I'm not actually sure what now. Lynching hip is probably the best although the process of wagoning itself won't get much from V/LA and considering that it's hiplop. WRT DGB the idea of testing the watcher is kind of intriguing even though she's probably scum and it likely does accomplishes nothing anyways (if she's town maf probably roleblock or something). Slandaars scum unless I'm misreading a townread but I'd feel more comfortable with hip or dgb because speculation aside I at least feel my individual scumreads on them. Jarjar and FA don't even look bad they just haven't proven they're town (which will technically be harder now because of pointing this out like this).

Bright side is even if I'm wrong on one or two things just lynching in the pool is still game winning barring a catastrophe. Also even if I'm not alive or can't follow through on this approach later it'll be very interesting to look at this from postgame perspective.

Obviously, these points will be contested. More likely the reads than the association talk. But at the very least some of the association ruling out we can probably agree on, and anything specific it's easy to talk about now.

[Firebringer]

infinity is likely town, the way I got to that was disgustingly gross, and probably broken game rules. But I got there.

[Vedith]

DGB and hiplop are my top scumreads atm. Slandaar is another possible scum, and not sure about fire slot atm. Everyone else I have some degree of townread on.

Okay, I'll start there!

[Firebringer]

DGB and hiplop are lazy scumreads IMO, its like the laziest of scumreads.

[Vedith]

DGB and hiplop are lazy scumreads IMO, its like the laziest of scumreads.

I don't think DGB is scum there, HipLop on the other hand I don't know.

[Vedith]

Lickety's ISO too stronk - Can you point me to scummy points on him?

[Firebringer]

I don't have reads on them really, but DGB just sounds like they are giving up without any god damn reason. Which is a little annoying, but I can see it as town.

[Vedith]

Is Raskolnikov confirmed town btw?

[Raskolnikov]

Happy to see you two, btw!

[Vedith]

Happy to see you two, btw!

However, you didn't need to write an essay just because I joined!

[MariaR]

So many...words in one post...dear god I need to lay down a moment

[Raskolnikov]

I was glad when I saw you two as replacements since the game should get a lot more fun now (regardless of your align actually). Vedith you won't change the townread on that slot right?
I haven't played with you fire but I'm vaguely familiar since I see you almost everywhere onsite, impression is you're actually kind of similar to vedith.

[Vedith]

I was glad when I saw you two as replacements since the game should get a lot more fun now (regardless of your align actually). Vedith you won't change the townread on that slot right?
I haven't played with you fire but I'm vaguely familiar since I see you almost everywhere onsite, impression is you're actually kind of similar to vedith.

I can't promise anything! :<
Me and Fire are one!

[Raskolnikov]

I feel like I just wrote an essay and now I'm trying to talk but my tendency is to keep talking like I'm writing objectively which is weird...

[MariaR]

I want to be part of the topic at hand but I don't really have anything to comment on what just happened so i'll just sit on my desk and wait for something.

[Raskolnikov]

If either of you two have a scumread beyond dgb/hip and can sort of back it up I'd like to hear it. I have a lot to say on literally everyone so the discussion should be interesting.

I know dgb/hip is lazy now but it wasn't lazy at the time either of those scumreads started (and lurking after being scumread is understandable from scum) and I'm really struggling to see it elsewhere.

[Vedith]

If either of you two have a scumread beyond dgb/hip and can sort of back it up I'd like to hear it. I have a lot to say on literally everyone so the discussion should be interesting.

I know dgb/hip is lazy now but it wasn't lazy at the time either of those scumreads started (and lurking after being scumread is understandable from scum) and I'm really struggling to see it elsewhere.

I can see HipLop more than DGB. I don't think HipLop likes being scum, personal opinion on him. What I've seen he puts less effort in them, but it could just be the games in general he hasn't been interest in.
His ISO was short, and basically effortless.

[Raskolnikov]

My second ever newbie game both scum were lurky then replaced out and plot-IC was like "scum rarely replace out in a newbie" and I like townread them partially on that and "what are the odds both are inactive" and I failed miserably in Tvts looking for scum elsewhere.

[Vedith]

My second ever newbie game both scum were lurky then replaced out and plot-IC was like "scum rarely replace out in a newbie" and I like townread them partially on that and "what are the odds both are inactive" and I failed miserably in Tvts looking for scum elsewhere.

Scum replace out a lot more than town. I've joined enough games as a replacement to know that.

[Raskolnikov]

Do you think the aristo case is fine too? I might have slightly exaggerated tbh but I still believe the major points. I think reading a slot you should consider every player within it.

[Raskolnikov]

Scum replace out a lot more than town. I've joined enough games as a replacement to know that.

the scumclaim

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: hiplop
forgot to vote

[Raskolnikov]

Where did firebringer go, I was more interested in him. Isn't he like the better player of you two?

[Raskolnikov]

I'm sorry I shouldn't deadpan that, we don't know each other enough

[Vedith]

Do you think the aristo case is fine too? I might have slightly exaggerated tbh but I still believe the major points. I think reading a slot you should consider every player within it.

It's 3:18am, I'm not reading that post until tomorrow! :<