Open 32 - Pick Your Poison Mafia (Game Over!), before 470

[Guardian]

His interactions with Mneme were inconclusive (as is most everything about Mneme, I think)

You don't think there is anything we can conclusively draw from mneme - others interactions?

I am not a big fan of this Rishi wagon right now. We need White's replacement, and Jdodge, before we should be lynching Rishi, imo. I am unsure of Rishi now, if we were going to lynch someone other than Bookitty and Jdodge, I'd rather it were Patrick atm, I think. Rishi has made a lot of sense this game, and looking back, it is not obvious that he was busing Setael.

[Thesp]

Sikario8 replaces White, effective immediately.

[Sikario8]

[quote=""Trying to make sense of this" "]

Sikario8

Jdodge

Vote: Rishi
543 - die scum die

Patrick
Guardian

525 - Bookitty, you're wrong, and I don't care to respond. But keep rambling, I'm sure it makes you feel good.
530 - Wow, that really isn't what I was looking for.

Attacking person NOT voting you = bad strategy, town or scum.

vote: Setael.

"almost had me convinced"... bull.
_________________
539 - Rishi, I'm going to try and interpret Setael's actions.

As Shanba pointed out, though, maybe she was just trying to WIFOM us about that. I'm not really interested in lynching you today, but that comment by her nags me.

Jdodge, as frustrating as he is, I have no idea of his alignment. Just his unwillingness to help out is suspicious to me.

Patrick is probably fourth for me, just by process of elimination. I think there is a good chance it is Bookitty though.

Shanba

545 - You could say that. ^^

One of Rishi/Jdodge should die today, with perhaps a side order of Patrick.

B

ookitty

526 - Since it wasn't addressed to you, and was in direct response to a question from someone else, I wasn't looking for you to respond, Guardian. But keep thinking everything is all about you, I'm sure it makes you feel good.

Rishi

[/quote]

Well, whatever; should I try an analysis or should I simply hammer Rishi? Any suggestions?

[Guardian]

Can you explain more clearly? I don't really have a good idea what you mean by the above.

I definitely wouldn't hammer Rishi without explaining why you think that's a good decision, and then only if you are quite convinced he is scum.

[Sikario8]

i was trying to do some type of analysis; however, the bottom fell through so i posted it in the bleak hopes that someone else would make sense of that confusing mass of english language

i'm not through, though, i'm still reading, but does anyone

else

want me to hamme rishi...?

[Bookitty]

Ack.

Okay, to PREVENT a mistake...

unvote

I would much prefer some discussion before we lynch anyone. Just because we have a little breathing room is no reason to act hastily.

[Sikario8]

Ack.

Okay, to PREVENT a mistake...

unvote

I would much prefer some discussion before we lynch anyone. Just because we have a little breathing room is no reason to act hastily.

nice whiff of pro-town you got there

[Rishi]

Based on other games, Sikario8 has absolutely no friggin' clue what he's doing.

That doesn't make him scum though.

I will note the "Should I just hammer Rishi?" comment reminds me of dylan's comment on Day 1 where he asked permission to put a vote on ssf. And dylan turned out to be scum.

I'm torn.

[Sikario8]

half-assed plan; however:

i was kind of hoping someone'd be like "yeah" and then i'd see where I went from there. i had no intention of actually voting - i haven't read anything yet - but i felt it'd give me a little insight as to the personalities of the outspoken

[Rishi]

half-assed plan; however:

i was kind of hoping someone'd be like "yeah" and then i'd see where I went from there. i had no intention of actually voting - i haven't read anything yet - but i felt it'd give me a little insight as to the personalities of the outspoken

I think all the remaining players in this game have played enough games that no one would fall for that. The only person left (besides you) who is "new" is Bookitty, and I think she's a better player than that.

[Sikario8]

half-assed plan; however:

i was kind of hoping someone'd be like "yeah" and then i'd see where I went from there. i had no intention of actually voting - i haven't read anything yet - but i felt it'd give me a little insight as to the personalities of the outspoken

I think all the remaining players in this game have played enough games that no one would fall for that. The only person left (besides you) who is "new" is Bookitty, and I think she's a better player than that.

damn

[JDodge]

Based on other games, Sikario8 has absolutely no friggin' clue what he's doing.

That doesn't make him scum though.

I will note the "Should I just hammer Rishi?" comment reminds me of dylan's comment on Day 1 where he asked permission to put a vote on ssf. And dylan turned out to be scum.

I'm torn.

I wholeheartedly agree with the above statement

[Bookitty]

Sikario8:

My best guess is that there is only one scum remaining. I have only a couple of suspects for that. You are one of those suspects.

What I'd personally like from you is that you reread the game and look especially at the people who came before you in that role (Ms Piggy, Jack, and White). Since you know your alignment, it would be helpful if you could try to put yourself in their places, and tell us what you think of their actions, for good or bad.

Words that no one, least of all me, thought I would ever say: I agree with Guardian. We need some input from JDodge before lynching anyone. Lynching Rishi is far from a foregone conclusion in my opinion. We can afford a mistake, but we shouldn't rush and make one more likely.

@Guardian: I did a reread of Mneme both in isolation and in context and I have no clue what he was doing. If you can see a pattern, knowing what we know now, I'd be really interested to hear it. I do note that both Mneme and Setael based a lot of their arguments around xyzzy (now me). I think they were trying to frame him. I don't have a better explanation than that, but that's my best guess.

[Sikario8]

acknowledged and appreciated

...reading...

[Guardian]

Bookitty -- you've purported to do a whole lot of reading; you've said you've read and re-read much more than I have actually read.

In your reading, what did you think of how others treated/reacted to mneme? Mneme himself left little trails, but others' treatments of him might reveal more -- you didn't notice anything?

[Bookitty]

I'm sorry to be slow in responding.

I'm thinking the best thing to do in response, Guardian, is to do an analysis of players remaining and look at their interactions with Mneme. I've posted an analysis previously about Mneme, in post 457, which is Mneme's interactions with others. But I wasn't reading him with an eye to how other people were treating him, or, at least I don't remember doing so.

I'm a bit busy at the moment but I will work on this today and hopefully I'll have something more substantive by this evening.

[Bookitty]

All right, in order from least suspicious to most suspicious in my current opinion (with the caveat that this order was determined before starting the reread):

Shanba: Agrees with Jack's assessment of dylan (Setael, now known to be scum): "I completely agree with his assessment of dylan (not so much with his assessment of mneme, or Patrick, or, well, me). The whole incident where he asks whether he should vote somestrangeflea or not seems so scummy. " Follows this with a vote on dylan.

Puts an FOS on Mneme fairly early, picking up on a scumtell quoted in a post by Jack. (As an aside, I don't think Jack would have posted something like that if he'd been scum with Mneme.) Later says this to Setael: " I'm happy you're adding more content than your predecessor, but I still prefer a you lynch to an anyone else lynch, with the perhaps exception of mneme." I definitely don't see scum attacking both its partners at once in this fashion.

Later on, some vacillation on Setael, attacking her fairly hard and voting her, then unvoting with this: "I like the way Setael has responded under pressure - I'm less sure of him as scum now than I was before his analyses. I have done similar things as town under threat of lynching - getting all your thoughts down can only help the town. Unvote. I quite like your case against Rishi, who was not on my radar at all, and would like to hear his response." Later, argues with me a bit about Guardian, argues with Guardian about his FOS of Setael. Then moves back to voting Setael: "I'm ready for a lynch, and I'd prefer it to be her."

Finally, in response to Rishi's statement that if Setael comes up town, he'll be looking hard at Shanba, this quote: "1-2 mislynch much?" I just don't see scum saying that. If Shanba knew Setael was scum, that comment wouldn't occur to him, I think. And scum would know Setael was scum.

Nothing here has changed my mind on Shanba. I still think he's town.

As always, if you see errors or omissions in this, please correct it.

[Bookitty]

Okay, next, Guardian. (P'feh! I was so sure he was scum.)

First, puts a vote on Mneme, and FOS's xyzzy(me, now) for going "with the easy case on dylan" (which did in fact turn out to be the correct case, since dylan/Setael were scum).

A couple of comments to Mneme, who's under pressure: "mneme, convince me to vote someone else. xyzzy would be the easiest at this point, he is definitely my second choice to mneme. Is xyzzy around?" and "mneme, you very well could be town, but you easily could be scum and you've done nothing to convince me otherwise -- and its not like I have extremely high standards." These are pretty suspicious, considering that Mneme was scum.

But then, seems satisfied that mneme is scum, and his interactions with Setael don't seem like distancing to me. He pushes her lynch too hard. He persists even when she's on the edge of being lynched, and he pulls the trigger on hammering her. While he does cling to the xyzzy wagon, and then tries to push a wagon on me, fairly intensely (and without making a case that I ever saw, apart from metagaming himself), he does abandon that when he sees scumminess from Setael.

I simply don't see scum arguing with its partner and bussing her in this way. I could be wrong about this. But I'm still leaning toward Guardian as town, right now. Not with as much certainty as before this last reread, but still I think he's town.

[Bookitty]

Patrick (really tied with Guardian for towniness to me):

Puts a vote on Dylan early with this comment:

Dylan's post number 5 looks scummy and insincere especially when I look at his/her next post about 40 minutes later.

Jack is suspicious of people on the Dylan wagon, and Patrick responds:

I read dylans posts in newbie 387 where he was town and got lynched day 1. The majority of those posts were a close variation of, "I'm a townie, don't lynch me!!". The amount of content he posted in that game is similar to this one, so that doesn't mean much for his alignment, but he seems more self conscious in this game, in posts 5-6.

I certainly don't think it's clearcut at all, and if dylan comes close to being lynched, I'll unvote, heck I might change my vote anyway soon. About half the players were able to cruise through day 1 without doing anything at all, and xyzzy was one of them. Today all he's done is voted dylan without any kind of analysis or content at all. So yes, we're certainly not going through today with only a focus on one person.

Not a lot of pressure on Dylan, but more focus than I'd think he'd have if Dylan were his scumbuddy.

Votes mneme, then unvotes, requesting a claim. Mneme is lynched before Patrick posts again:

Initial reaction is that the two last votes on mneme are possible buses, and that Jack/White is likely town.

(Note: the last two votes on mneme were Setael and JDodge.)

and later this:

Satael looks like a good possibility to me. I don't think she ever gave an opinion on mneme until her last post where she appeared on the mneme wagon, and it just looked like she wanted to quickly make sure she was on the mneme lynch that was obviously going to happen at that stage. (And I don't think her vote was required as extra incentive for mneme to claim). Looking back at mneme's posts, he seems to have alot of wishy washy stances on dylan, in that he left plenty of openings to vote him later but always went after other players first (Thin Man, Rishi, Shanba and me is what I remember). Plus I was never wild about dylan's play to begin with. Shanba also brings up a reasonable point in his last post about mneme seeming to show a double standard between Shanba being self conscious and dylan being self conscious.

JDodge's hammer of mneme shares a characteristic with Satael's vote on mneme, the fact that he never expressed any previous opinion of mneme but was willing to vote him. JDodge hasn't done much in this game either, but I think I'm more suspicious of Satael at the moment.

and:

Satael, your reasoning for voting mneme isn't actually bad. I still think it could have made a convenient bus for you.

and:

Mneme's stance on dylan is usually kind of expressing suspicion on dylan, whilst going after or voting other people. If dylan was going to be lynched, mneme had left himself openings to be on that lynchwagon. Although, on reading his posts, he left quite alot of options open in all directions anyway.

I think Patrick is town, because I think that no scum would ever bus their partner in such a truthful and accurate manner.

[Rishi]

Looks like I made the Top Three!

(Waits in anticipation..)

[Guardian]

Bookitty is trying really really hard. I tend to think she wouldn't leave so much analysis for us to scrutinize if she is scum. Eh, she is def still in my top three though.

However,

unvote vote: Jdodge

.



One thing really bugged me -- when I metagamed him, and said his not posting was scummy, he asked "remember the last time you tried to do this?" He was right to do so -- he was town in that game.

However, he FAILED to point out that

I

was scum in that game. There were two scum factions, but I was scum and the last time I made that argument it could have been just BS scum tactics -- and I would expect him to bring that up here.

His failure to do so makes me think he was possibly buddying --

he wasn't interested in figuring out if I was scum, he was only interested in making me think that he wasn't scum

.

Also, his behavior re: both scum wagons has been suspicious.

More Jdodge wagon please. Bookitty and Patrick can wait.

[JDodge]

Bookitty is trying really really hard. I tend to think she wouldn't leave so much analysis for us to scrutinize if she is scum. Eh, she is def still in my top three though.

However,

unvote vote: Jdodge

.



One thing really bugged me -- when I metagamed him, and said his not posting was scummy, he asked "remember the last time you tried to do this?" He was right to do so -- he was town in that game.

However, he FAILED to point out that

I

was scum in that game. There were two scum factions, but I was scum and the last time I made that argument it could have been just BS scum tactics -- and I would expect him to bring that up here.

His failure to do so makes me think he was possibly buddying --

he wasn't interested in figuring out if I was scum, he was only interested in making me think that he wasn't scum

.

Also, his behavior re: both scum wagons has been suspicious.

More Jdodge wagon please. Bookitty and Patrick can wait.

R.I.P. Logic, beginning of time - November 10, 2007

[Rishi]

I actually agree that some of Guardian's logic is a little weak, but the problem with JDodge is that he is almost unreadable. If JDodge is the last scum, he's fairly dangerous.

But I'm still not interested in lynching him today. I'm more inclined to go for Bookitty or Sikario8.

[Shanba]

Agreed with Rishi here. Actually,

Unvote Vote: Jdodge

. I don't think Bookitty is the play and I have a strong town read on Jack and I'm getting a town read on Rishi now too.

[Bookitty]

Okay, before I start this. I hate JDodge's playstyle, and find it unhelpful and anti-town. That said, I was thinking something that was likely not true when I was analysing him and trying to determine his innocence or guilt. I was assuming, because of his unexplained votes, that he was the cop.

But I don't really think they would have given us a cop in this setup. So I don't know why I had this in my head. I think it was the only explanation I could think of for his unexplained voting pattern.

This analysis should be shorter, anyway.

JDodge lurks, announces, "I am lurking. Discuss."

Puts the hammer on Mneme, when it was likely a foregone conclusion that Mneme would be lynched.

Puts a vote on Setael, claims it was a mistake ("Shit, I confused this game with a different one.") and unvotes. Puts a third vote on Setael (when it's five to lynch) after Patrick and Shanba already voted her, saying "diescumdie" (this is what made me think he was the cop, mostly).

I dunno. I think he just moved into one of the top two spots for me, considering that I don't think we have a cop. I am aware he has an anti-town and unhelpful playstyle, but that doesn't mean he isn't scum.