Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Zulfy]

100 pages!!!

Votecount 5.03

Jaack

: Toolenduso

toolenduso

: Jaack

Not voting

: Bins, Tyler the Creator, Ircher

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-07-01 10:06:00)

[toolenduso]

I'm sorry, but this is totally wifom. I must be scum because I'm acting exactly opposite how scum would act.

If I'm going to speculate about your intentions, some of it is going to end up being "but would he really do that as scum, or would he not do it because he would know that I would know he would do it as scum, so then he would do it because he'd know he'd be safe," etc, etc. It's actually kind of inevitable, and so you have to draw the line somewhere.

I try to draw that line by asking whether there's any other evidence to support it. In this case, there is.

Why would I, as scum

As soon as I see somebody say this, I start getting paranoid that they had this explanation ready at the time of the action. But I'll bite.

The reason you'd go for one of Tyler or me over xyzzy is because you have to think about the endgame and not just what's in front of you. Xyzzy was what was in front of you.

Furthermore, I didn't push Robert at all going into d3, I pushed xyzzy in my opening post.

Ah you're right, I mixed up the timing there. That leaves me p much clueless as to the reasoning behind the Zachstral kill.

Dunn kill still points your way imo.

[Tyler the Creator]

sorry no motivation to play mafia the last couple days

[Tyler the Creator]

if it is just jaack i'll probably end up feeling pretty silly but im still leaning towards tool

ughh

[Tyler the Creator]

not even sure why tyler being scum is part of the discussion

dude's town af

[Bins]

This isn't the way you should be talking if you're town in this scenario.

[Tyler the Creator]

Tyler's read on Keyser also bugs the fuck out of me and I think that's the main reason.

really? because i maintain that ha interactions did make keyser look a good bit more town

like the only explanation for that much badmouthing to me would be like some hate developing in the scumchat for some reason

or just that ha felt like going really heavy and sharp on the distancing when he didn't really need to?

honestly we lucked out with creature replacing in and just emanating scum because you saw how tough that blockade was for me to break before that creature lynch

bussing usually doesn't fool me either; ive gotten pretty immune to that lately

[Tyler the Creator]

This isn't the way you should be talking if you're town in this scenario.

what do you want me to say?

i feel like ive obvtowned pretty hard this game

reads have been mediocre to okayish i think too

[Bins]

Talking about how obvtown you are. That's exactly what I would do as scum in this situation.

[Tyler the Creator]

because any competent mafia player should be able to read my iso and come away with nothing other than "yea this guy's town"

and the fact that you aren't doing that means you needed a reminder is all

[Tyler the Creator]

here's an idea - we lynch between tyler and tool today

that way we either probably win OR tyler doesn't need to most likely get mislynched by bins in lylo

vote:tool

[Jaack]

Some things:

1) For almost all of D4, the Jaack wagon was composed of conf town with both Dunn and Xy on it til the last VC where Dunn compromised on Xy
2) The fact Dun got nk'd is another tell-tale sign. Esp. since there's 2 other conf town.
3) Jaack never voting until the end of D4 where he seems to got on the Xyzzy wagon right before the lynch. I wonder why.....
4) Jack stayed put on the Dunn counterwagon to Creature D3. Granted, Jake was on the wagon too, but so was creature who was scum. Not to mention the wagon existed all of D3.
5) Jaack was on the D2 ML wagon.....

1 and 3 are fair takes from vca and I have nothing to argue with there
2 - I've addressed this (I think) but no matter who the nk n4 was going to be, I was their top suspect.
4 - (I dont know if youve read the whole thread so background) Dunn fakeclaimed cop d3 before Jake cc'd with an inno on dunn. Both Jake and I assumed gf while everyone else mostly believed dunn was clear.

A second contributing factor to my support for a dunn lynch was that all three of his wagoners on d2 were confirmed town at the time. When creature flipped scum, that diminished that factor in my mind, which made mean lean against the gf factor.

5 - this is accurate of tool as well, and whole Tyler was not on the final lynch, he had started the initial drive on that slot, and had given intent to hammer before Jake beat him to the punch.

With the exception of the craziness that was d3, tool and I have been on pretty similar wagons this entire game.

This admittedly doesn't feel like much of a defense as opposed to a case that tool is scum, but based on his posts today, I'm pretty convinced he is and would like to push the lylo players in that direction.

Pedit-or maybe we can lynch him today and win.

[Jaack]

I'm sorry, but this is totally wifom. I must be scum because I'm acting exactly opposite how scum would act.

If I'm going to speculate about your intentions, some of it is going to end up being "but would he really do that as scum, or would he not do it because he would know that I would know he would do it as scum, so then he would do it because he'd know he'd be safe," etc, etc. It's actually kind of inevitable, and so you have to draw the line somewhere.

I try to draw that line by asking whether there's any other evidence to support it. In this case, there is.

I draw the line when you start saying "scum wouldn't normally do this, but that's what the scum want you to think!"

It looks like you are trying to convince yourself that I am scum because you already know I'm not.

Why would I, as scum

As soon as I see somebody say this, I start getting paranoid that they had this explanation ready at the time of the action. But I'll bite.

The reason you'd go for one of Tyler or me over xyzzy is because you have to think about the endgame and not just what's in front of you. Xyzzy was what was in front of you.

I totally understand why someone would be concerned with me talking about what I would have done if I were scum, but you brought up my non-existent scum motives in the first place. How else can I explain your wrongness.

Anyway, you were an equally available lynch at the time. Had I voted for you, with TOF MIA, there likely would not have been enough support for an xyzzy lynch.

Dunn kill still points your way imo.

Every possible nk would 'point my way' because all the conftown had me as their most likely living candidate.

[Zulfy]

Votecount 5.04

Jaack

: Toolenduso,

toolenduso

(L-1)

: Jaack, Tyler the Creator

Not voting

: Bins, Ircher

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-07-01 10:06:00)

[Ircher]

Votecount 5.04

Jaack

: Toolenduso,

toolenduso

(L-1)

: Jaack, Tyler the Creator

Not voting

: Bins, Ircher

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-07-01 10:06:00)

What even is this?!

[Ircher]

sorry no motivation to play mafia the last couple days

if it is just jaack i'll probably end up feeling pretty silly but im still leaning towards tool

ughh

not even sure why tyler being scum is part of the discussion

dude's town af

Seriously?!

[Ircher]

Ugh....

I would let Bins decide the hammer, but I have my doubts.......

Yeah, I think I'm vetoing the Tool wagon:

VOTE: Tyler - Not impressed with your performance today.

[Ircher]

i wanna lynch tool

but then jaacks last couple posts suck

don't wanna read into the kill too much, dunn wasn't ever getting lynched

Lining up MLs (Tool and Jaack). The reasoning provided for lynching Jaack is kinda bad.

not even sure why tyler being scum is part of the discussion

dude's town af

"Look at me, I'm so obvtown!"

- Indeeed, Tyler scum wouldn't want to be the highlight of the convo, so he tries to get us to kinda ignore him.

here's an idea - we lynch between tyler and tool today

that way we either probably win OR tyler doesn't need to most likely get mislynched by bins in lylo

vote:tool

I'd at this point much rather ML you than ML tool.

After another glance at ISOs, I feel that scum!Tool would be much more deserving of a win than scum!Tyler.
Jaack is meh and I'm kinda divided there.

We all know Bins is not hammering Tool and at this point, nor am I, so someone is gonna have to give.

[Ircher]

Tyler has been tunneling Xyzzy almost the entire game, yet when the Jaack wagon forms, he jumps ship for an L-1 vote (prob. hoping for a hammer.) When Xyzzy is finally lynched, Tyler is notably off the wagon despite being on Xyzzy D2 and all of D3 and some of D4.

[Ircher]

For Tool, he in the matter of 4 VCs makes some switches D3.

First, he's on the Creature wagon then he switches to Xyzzy then he switches back to Creature in 3.09.

Unlike the rest of you, I can see a town reason for the 2nd switch since 3.10 was the hammer (meaning deadline was probably closing in), but I'd still like to know the reasons for this behavior.

[Tyler the Creator]

you have been here not even a week the rest of us it's going on months, ircher

calm down and realize not everyone still has as much energy as you left

thanks

[Tyler the Creator]

and it's not as if i haven't laid out my thoughts on tool and jaack already, jaack specifically ive changed my read on at least a dozen times now

whatever happens to be what my thoughts are on things is usually pretty well known to people right about when those thoughts happen

[toolenduso]

here's an idea - we lynch between tyler and tool today

that way we either probably win OR tyler doesn't need to most likely get mislynched by bins in lylo

I am really not sure what to make of this. I can see both sides of it, I guess. The town explanation relies on Tyler being very sure I'm scum, which is why it would be justified for him to try to "skip" a day phase by going to what he thinks is going to be LyLo. Scum explanation would simply be that he thinks he has a better chance in LyLo against Jaack than he would against me. Which is probably true.

The thing that keeps sticking for me is how Tyler became so sure that I'm scum. I don't see it.

It looks like you are trying to convince yourself that I am scum because you already know I'm not.

No, I'm considering both sides as I make my decision -- why you would do X thing if you were scum or if you were town. Counterintuitive stuff like the line I was talking about were part of why I thought it was xyzzy and not you yesterday. But xyzzy has now been eliminated as a possibility, as have several other people I thought were scum instead of you, and so I know that I've been wrong about things. So I have to look at the reasons why I thought you and Tyler were both town and check them again. It's easier to find scum explanations for your actions than it is for Tyler's actions.

Anyway, you were an equally available lynch at the time. Had I voted for you, with TOF MIA, there likely would not have been enough support for an xyzzy lynch.

Yeah but the difference is that my lynch was far less certain. Xyzzy'd been pushed for virtually the entire game up until that point. If you had hopped on my wagon then (iirc) there still would have been a question mark as to who would hammer.

Every possible nk would 'point my way' because all the conftown had me as their most likely living candidate.

I acknowledged that the three non-lynchable townies all suspected you. The reason I thought the Dunn kill pointed to you, specifically, was because you were the one arguing that TOF should be a lynch option in LyLo.

For Tool, he in the matter of 4 VCs makes some switches D3.

First, he's on the Creature wagon then he switches to Xyzzy then he switches back to Creature in 3.09.

Unlike the rest of you, I can see a town reason for the 2nd switch since 3.10 was the hammer (meaning deadline was probably closing in), but I'd still like to know the reasons for this behavior.

My reasoning for switching from Creature to xyzzy is in #2146, and my reasoning for switching back to Creature is in #2220. To sum it up here:

-Based on theories I had that largely came out of the Dunn-fakeclaiming-cop situation, I believed there was one scum between Jaack and Creature and one scum between xyzzy and Tyler. In other words, I didn't see a Jaack/Creature scumteam or a xyzzy/Tyler scumteam.
-Of those, Creature and Xyzzy were my top two picks. So I spent the day going back and forth between them.
-One reason for switching between the two of them had to do with which wagons looked like they actually had enough support to go through that day.

[toolenduso]

I still think Jaack looks worse than Tyler. Ircher why do you want Tyler over Jaack today?

[Ircher]

I dunno.

Tyler's more recent posts just look a bit worse then Jaack's.

I'll wait to hear what Bins thinks.