Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Tyler the Creator]

I'd also prefer a jaack lynch as I think he's trying to get the vote off of xyzzy just to save himself for later. He doesn't have a reason to suspect tool/tyler over xyzzy in his position as town

i kinda see what you're saying here

like he's playing the game a day or two ahead

[toolenduso]

Oh OK I didn't realize that was what Dunn was saying.

That...kind of makes sense. I don't know if it makes more sense than all the stuff I've found about xyzzy though.

[Jaack]

Wasn't supposed to get called into work today at all - got called in anyway.

But I hate it when people stall with that type of junk, so here's at least a start.

I think its noteworthy that HA kind of grouped Keyser and tool together in 281, along with floof as a possible scum group. My initial thought is that HA wouldn't limit his mislynch options to just floof, although HA also calls bins and zach scum in the same post, so it wasn't overly limiting.

Only other noteworthy thing regarding what HA said about tool is that he disagreed with him about something Keyser related. Didn't strike me much as scum distancing, particularly since we've seen HA scum-distance/bus Keyser.

Seeing as HA bussed Keyser hard from the start and only described tool as scum in passing, my feeling is that tool doesn't make a whole lot of sense as scum there.

As for Keyser, he and tool talked some about theory and what not, but Keyser's contribution was not super substantial, particularly in how it (did not really) related to this game. He's exceedingly polite with tool (294 and 313), which contrasts with his takedowns of HA (and ira).

Keyser does mention tool in D2 (I forgot that Keyser had said anything content-y at all D2). The most noteworthy thing here comes in 976 where he lists "mild suspicion" of tool based on his interactions with HA. Well that's not really noteworthy in of itself, but it is noteworthy that Keyser does not discuss any of xyzzy, tyler, or myself (aka, the other people who are at this point, unconfirmed). In general it seems that Keyser was someone willing to bus and while bussing may seem more unlikely with only two scum compared to three, tool was on a list of 5 people, meaning Keyser could have maintained a slight scumread on tool for quite a while without ever having to push that lynch.

Creature slight townreads tool in the same breath as slightly townreading Tyler (1868), and that's basically it. Any assumption I could make about creature's motivation regarding tool would be equally true about Tyler, so this doesn't exactly give me much insight into which one between them is scum, but it does strengthen my belief that one of them is scum.

So from HA's stuff, I got mostly townfeels for tool but Keyser's stuff is more mixed, lean scum.

Plan to look at what HA/Keyser/creature said about Tyler next.

[Tyler the Creator]

The big question is how you're so oddly confident that xy isn't scum.

[Tyler the Creator]

Everything else you're doing is great and all but that's a thing that you haven't really given a solid answer that I've read.

Though to be fair I've been skimming mostly since Day 1.

[Jaack]

The big question is how you're so oddly confident that xy isn't scum.

2264 is my primary reason at this point. The other thing is that if xyzzy and creature were the two scum yesterday, I feel like one of them would have pushed harder for my lynch since in such a scenario, I would be the only townie there would have been reasonable support to lynch (aside from Dunn I guess).

Basically creature-xyzzy doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

[Bins]

Been working late these past few days gonna look at stuff tmmr

[Dunnstral]

I want to lynch Jaack boys

[toolenduso]

Well I was thinking a little more about what you and Tyler were saying about Jaack's lack of a scumread on xyzzy and I realized that it could just as likely be that townJaack is being cautious/responding to changes in the gamestate. His reasoning doesn't make a ton of sense to me, but then neither has a lot of his other reasoning on stuff like Rob's claim and your gambit.

[toolenduso]

Idk. I mean, we're in a pretty good place since we are (almost certainly) down to the last scum. We could afford a mislynch. It's just that I think xyzzy makes a lot of sense as the last scum and I feel like I've been running out of steam on this game. So I'd rather just end the game.

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: xyzzy

Let's get this game moving then, this is L-1

[Tyler the Creator]

yes

[Bins]

Okay, I lied. I'm gonna say I like a xy lynch and a Jaack lynch equally. But I'm undecided/don't really care who goes first.

I'm just gonna play the worst scenarios out right now.

We lynch xy and he's town. TOF dies (confTown).
We lynch Jaack and he's town. Dunn or I die.

Either way Tool/Tyler is LYLO and Dunn and I are going to have to make that awful decision and I'm really not sure on who I would pick over the other. Either way, this isn't something to worry about until tomorrow. I feel like Tool would play a logical scum. As in, never using faulty logic to save a member (like how he saw the Ira claim as better than the H_A one, or how he responded to the Robert claim, or how he responded to Dunn). But then again ALSO, Tyler would of done a better job of distancing / wouldn't of went with town reading Keyser. I don't think scumTyler would have been so "Keyser was preeeetty town guys" if he were scum. Of course that's better than saying "Creature is town, guys." But eh. I don't know. I really hope we don't have to get to that decision.

[Bins]

Dunn or I die.

I could also be completely wrong about this. Super hypothetical right now on worst case in my POV.

[Bins]

The main problem posts I have with Jaack:

tl:dr version - there virtually has to be scum in <dunn, creaure, jaack>. If we lynch from that pool until we get scum, we will most likely win.

Is it likely he would just straight up name the remaining scum team (which includes himself)?

Between creature and xyzzy, I believe xyzzy is probably more likely to be scum but that creature's flip will provide us with more info either way.

I hate the "this flip will provide more info tho" when it comes to association. It's so half-ass distancing.

[Dunnstral]

I'm dead after TOF

[Bins]

I think Keyser and Creature are pretty key here to figuring this out. We know that Keyser hefty bussed H_A. But Keyser also hefty interacted with xy and also pushed Jaack at the beginning.

"Moderate suspicion:

Robert2424
Zachstralkita

Mild suspicion:

Floof

toolenduso

Jake from State Farm

Good feelings on:
Dunnstral"

Man, Keyser would make sure to bus the fuck out of H_A but left his leftover partner out of this?

[Dunnstral]

He interacted a lot with Ira too by the way

[TheOtherFiction]

Super contribution POST!

I have read to this point, nothing to add.

[Dunnstral]

In case xyzzy is town and I die tonight, you should lynch jaack then tool in that order

[Bins]

Tyler/Tool - They haven't done anything particularly scummy/indicative, their general motivation looks good so far.
xyzzy - Kind of liked him D1. Haven't done much D2 or D3 to get a read from.
Jaack - Should say, his pushes are pretty terrible.
Bins - I dislike her posts since D1. Her claim is a coincidence, which makes me think she could be some kind of mafia PR.
Dunnstral

Alright. So here are the questions I get from this.
1) Would he pair his partner up with someone else and then just say "null lol"?
2) The reads on both Jaack and xy are terrible. But is he more likely to scumread them or townread them in this position?
3) Would he just not put a read for his partner?

Feeling pretty confident both scum are on Dunnstral/Jaack/Bins.

I think this makes Jaack look worse.

[Dunnstral]

So do you want to vote jaack instead or what

[Tyler the Creator]

Man, Keyser would make sure to bus the fuck out of H_A but left his leftover partner out of this?

his other partner was in a better position? less noob? less liability?

[Tyler the Creator]

xy doesn't really fit with that theory, though

[Bins]

So do you want to vote jaack instead or what

no I guess I'll hammer

I was just killing time waiting for a better response from xy, but I'm gonna guess there's not a high chance that happens.