Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Jake from State Farm]

To narrow it down further, I think there's one scum in {Xyzzy/Tyler} and one in {Creature, Jaack}. That's why I feel pretty confident town is going to win right now.

Umm you left Dunn off your list. He's confirmed scum so it can be one scum in xy/Tyler & one in creature/jaack. Did you mean or?

[TheOtherFiction]

Hi post, brb later with something resembling views/opinions.

[Dunnstral]

since no one else ever bothered to try to come up with an actual answer as to why: Dunnstral, is your claim directly related to your assertion in 831 that you are 100% sure that Robert is town?

I feel like over the course of night one I lost track of a lot of what's happened in this game, and I really need to do a more comprehensive reread of day 2 so far, because I've not had time to go back and do any extensive rereading. basically, though, I got the sense during night one that I had probably been pushing too hard in directions where there was likely going to be little movement, and not really focusing as much on the topics everyone else was discussing during day one, and I've been relying too heavily on which people I feel are contributing the most to the game as a general sign of who's scum and who's not. partially that's just because I don't fully trust my own intuition yet--I'm still in that phase of feeling like I'm rusty at all of this. I think it's reasonable to be suspicious of me coming out of the gate day two basically just losing any momentum and not really having any strong opinions--I just didn't really trust my gut at that point in time, and that's what I was trying to express.

I'm feeling better about Bins now. I'm still feeling fairly confident that Jaack is town and am puzzled by the belief otherwise. I really don't like zakk's most recent post (1081) at all. I definitely think Dunnstral's townie claim (which I asked about in 993) is a fairly crucial piece of information given his response to my question about it in 994, and I'm really curious what other people think about it--the way he framed the assertion that Robert is town seems to imply that he has information that a townie wouldn't normally have access to (and isn't merely very confident of it). I'm especially curious what Robert thinks about that.

I'm going to do some rereading and hopefully write some words about that soon.

I actually didn't realize it was so clear cut

Looks like xyzzy definitely suspected that I was cop with an inno on robert from the bolded part. That's why I think they could actually be town here

Was this ever addressed?

[Dunnstral]

Votecount 1.09

iraonavp

(L-3)

: Tyler, bins, toolenduso, Jaack

heuristically_alone

: Keyser, Dunnstral,

Floof

Zachstralkita

: xyzzy,

heuristically

Keyser Söze

:

iraonavp

Not voting

:

Robert2424, Zachstralkita, JFSF

Decided to look at votecounts and this one is interesting - it's pre doctor claim too

relatively strong townreads on bins and dunn
so either half the scumteam wanted to all pile on zach (xyzzy) - which would be strange considering that there's a cool ira wagon already rolling
or

at least

one of jaack/tool is scum

a part of me wants to think that ha might be getting bussed there, namely because paranoia, but also because i don't ever have faith in town's abillity to get a wagon spinning on scum day 1 without some sort of bussing/distancing sparking it
and im leaning on it being keyser because a tool/jaack team realizes how shit out of luck they are if ha takes off and how bad this would make them look (gonna sprinkle some meh ontop of that but im rolling with it for now)

which it did - gonna keep reading on

I'm rereading and I think it's just Creature/Jaack

Jaack goes from voting ira to voting robert and doesn't vote for h_a who flipped mafia

keyser came in bussing early

ira is being voted by I think 1 mafia here don't think jaack/tool is the mafia team

xyzzy voting Zach there and then h_a following up by being the second person on seems a bit off as I believe mafia want to try to keep their distance here

[Dunnstral]

Actually

VOTE: Jaack

[TheOtherFiction]

jake, not who, why

I checked robert because his claim was weird,

erm but you kinda were buying it seen here:

I do understand why robert would out his role there - why are people starting to vote robert here? I personally believe he's town and that h_a is possible mafia regardless of what robert is

am i gonna keep reading and see you change that into a scum read on robert or you wanna be straight up with me?

Sick town post.

That was an obvious joke as I led the lynch, you're really going to grasp at everything

Tyler I said it changed after h_a flipped, I was sort of feeling all 3 could be town beforehand

You said "regardless." Which means, you didn't believe there was a connection between h_a and my slot. Plus, bodyguard died n1, heavily giving credit to the likely town cred of my slot, making your "innocent" read on my role very suspect.

i'll vote dunnstral as soon as someone convinces me that his play today is scum motivated

all have yet to do this

just woop, must be a godfather

What?

The difference is that you didn't decide to fakeclaim at that game.

Obviously I'm not going to fake claim every game. Also I was cop so.....

Digging around in my last game isn't going to help you, saying "I didn't fake claim that other game" is true but doesn't have bearing on this game in the first place

Also you're ignoring discussion on the game at hand

As I can see, most of the discussion involves me being scum, which is totally wrong.

5 star defense

[Dunnstral]

Where did you start reading from?

[TheOtherFiction]

Jaack looks to be setting up lynches day 1 and then gunning for Robert the next day. It seems like scum would need to try to remove the macho effect sooner as the BG death semi-confirms that I'm town, as a townie is less likely to just claim this modifier on Day 1 and then get "lucky" that BG dies soon. So, continuing to push on robert day 2 seems just wrong for scum and townie. However, he preempted his argument to lynch Robert day 1 by trying to suggest lynching Robert, then based on his flip, setting up lynches.

I mean, you make some salient points. But there are a couple of points not quite making it all the way through my head:

Scenario 2 is just about as unlikely due to Robert's claim. His claim doesn't make much sense if he's the only scum: he was trying to stop a lynch on one of two prs in that scenario.

Wouldn't it only make sense for Robert to have been trying to stop HA's lynch, given the fact that Robert didn't claim until

after

ira counterclaimed? Put another way, ira was not in danger -- so how could scumRobert's claim have been a means of getting scumIra out of the noose?

And if it is the case that Robert-ira doesn't make sense as a scum team, then doesn't that change your possible arrangements to {all three are town} or {Robert and HA are scum together; ira is town}?

The Robert/ira scum team is definitely the least likely, which is why we should lynch HA first if robert flips scum. But if we assume that that is reality for a moment, then the second that HA flipped town (which he is in this scenario) ira would be basically confirmed scum. Robert would be preemptively protecting his scumbuddy I guess. It doesn't make that much sense but its probably the 3rd most likely case.

Ira or h_a being scum alone is maybe possible, but it wouldn't really make sense with Robert's role. Macho townie is a really strange role unless there are multiple protective options.

I don't believe I've ever played with a macho role and I don't really understand why it would make more sense to have a macho role with two protective town PRs than with one protective town PR.

Well macho town with no night role is almost 100% pointless. Macho is primarily used to balance a powerful role in a game with a doctor (e.g. a Cop+Doc is really powerful, while a Macho Cop+Doc is reasonable). There isn't really any reason for a Macho VT to exist in general. In order for such a role to come into play, both a doc and a nk would have to target what is essentially a VT. In order for that role to make any amount of sense, there would have to be multiple protects. Even then, it still seems weird, particularly if Robert is the only Macho townie.

Doc+BG is weird. Macho VT is weird. Doc+BG+Macho VT is weird, but there is a bit of logic there.

He wants to lynch h_a IF robert flips scum (which he won't, can confirm, i'm that guy). SO, that would essentially derail the wagon again h_a for at least day 1, and gives him a starting point to defend h_a. If not, he lines up lynches with the increased chance that h_a is scum here:

Like if I were to put totally made up odds on it

64% - Robert and HA are scum, Ira is town
30% - All Town
5% - Robert and ira scum, HA town
1% - Something stupid

I dislike his gunning for Robert. His actions seem like scum trying to make the best out of h_a getting caught up. Try to stave his execution wtih condition if Robert is scum (when he's town <--I'm this role/people can pretty much confirm). Okay, H_A is getting lynched, let's push Robert as scum buddy. Can't get Robert dead, consider using statistics and outguess the mod by pointing out the EXTREME infrequency of Macho townie even though the N1 death was the bodyguard. It's possible Robert got lucky, but it was incredibly unlikely prediction since the setup is closed (I didn't see a list of possible roles or w/e).

This just strikes me as scum motivated play.

Then, he abandons Robert because Jake was mad at him, and kept Robert in the "mixed feeling" category until Oops, confirmed town.

Side note:

He also seems to only want to lynch Robert but is "okay" lynching a few other people without much convincing.


He softens so much in late posts that I'm not sure if scum or just a really tunneled townie.


I dislike this post, posting anyway. Blame my headache.

[TheOtherFiction]

Where did you start reading from?

Mostly reading ISOs on people who struck me funny day 1.

Your posts, by the way, are ass to read.

[TheOtherFiction]

FBWOP: Also, I read day 3. Of course, I missed things skimming, like I had more about the wtf of your copclaim, and that was resolved, so erased it.

Mostly, I skipped day 2 except in ISOs or when quoted.

[Jake from State Farm]

zzzzzzzzzz

[Jaack]

Uff sorry for my absense, but stuff happens.

Mostly skimmed through recent content, will probably look more at it later, but here are my general thoughts:

Jake/tof/bins mostly confirmed as town
Dunn still is scum

Most likely scumbuddy is xyzzy - xyzzy is both independently rather scummy and works fairly well as dunn's partner. This is mostly based on D2 stuff, where most people seemed open to lynching either xyzzy or floofzakkdesmond, but dunn stuck pretty hard on fzd. I can't in good conscience support any non-dunn lynch today, but xyzzy is my number 2 scum.

While I'm not exactly getting warmfuzzies from creature, the speed at which a wagon developed in him upon his replacement, despite that slot having very little content makes me lean town. I also liked keyser's d1 stuff, so that's another point for this slot.

Tyler and tool have been pretty similar both the past two days, with the exception being that tool has some level if suspicion of tyler, while the opposite does not seem to be true. Gut feel there is that tool is more likely to be town because of that. I also like tool's d3 better.

[toolenduso]

I'm traveling today and just realized I'm probably gonna hit some gnarly traffic on the way home, so....gonna try to give some input tomorrow. But one thing I want to get out of the way right now...

@Dunn: If you think Jaack/Creature is the scumteam, can you address the fact that they're both going after you right now? In other words, why do you think both scum would do that under these circumstances?

[Dunnstral]

Dunn's strong lust for the f/z/d lynch for virtually all of D2 makes me pretty comfortable that he's town. I don't feel that scum under reasonable suspicion would push so hard on a weak slot's lynch.

Most likely scumbuddy is xyzzy - xyzzy is both independently rather scummy and works fairly well as dunn's partner. This is mostly based on D2 stuff, where most people seemed open to lynching either xyzzy or floofzakkdesmond, but dunn stuck pretty hard on fzd. I can't in good conscience support any non-dunn lynch today, but xyzzy is my number 2 scum.

Jaack should be obvious now

[Dunnstral]

@Dunn: If you think Jaack/Creature is the scumteam, can you address the fact that they're both going after you right now? In other words, why do you think both scum would do that under these circumstances?

Let's not pretend that creature's play has been masterful so far regardless of alignment

I think it's creature/jaack mostly because I'm inclined to believe that xyzzy is more likely to be town than the two of them individually, but as for the pairing how about there:

1. Creature didn't realize mafia had day talk when he came in (he's shown that he doesn't really pay attention to things so this is possible. There's also the fact that keyser wasn't very active and may not have been talking all that much with his partner)
2. They're going all out trying to get me lynched today and then try to throw suspicion between tool/tyler for the endgame (which we have been seeing.) This would need them to get Robert's replacement to vote me and one more person, but I'm not seeing the one more person and they can just coast back and watch Jake try to convince TOF without doing anything themselves
3. The mafia don't know what they're doing and just turned on me trying to get me lynched but didn't expect resistance

The way that jaack and creature interact with bins - or ignore her sometimes is just so weird in my mind as it feels like they're kind of just not talking to her, and throwing very poor suspicion towards her. It might just be a me thing but that's something I've noticed

[Jaack]

I'm trying to figure out why you're talking about in 2064. You think I'm scum because I had a change of opinion? I changed my opinion because you fakeclaimed cop, along with myriad other revelations that affectwd my view of the game between the two posts you quotes.

I mean, you've fluctuated between scum and town reading me like 4 times and the past few pages, and I've hardly posted.

[Tyler the Creator]

VOTE: Jaack

[Dunnstral]

You used the exact same reasoning as an argument in a polar opposite way

[Jaack]

You used the exact same reasoning as an argument in a polar opposite way

In the first post, I was attempting to analyze the aftermath of the Desmond lynch, which I thought reflected relatively well at the time.

Then you fakeclaimed. That lead me to believe my previous townread on you was quite incorrect. Which means I have to look back at your interactions from the mindset that you are scum. That makes you look at things differently.

[TheOtherFiction]

The nothing happening is just so sexy. Make it stop.

[Dunnstral]

OK so engage us; how do you feel about lynching jaack?

[Jake from State Farm]

The nothing happening is just so sexy. Make it stop.

so make something happen. vote dunn

[toolenduso]

Looks like xyzzy definitely suspected that I was cop with an inno on robert from the bolded part. That's why I think they could actually be town here

Was this ever addressed?

Yep, here.

1. Creature didn't realize mafia had day talk when he came in (he's shown that he doesn't really pay attention to things so this is possible. There's also the fact that keyser wasn't very active and may not have been talking all that much with his partner)

I mean, I just don't think it's very likely that a person replacing into a scum slot would go straight to the thread and start doing stuff -- especially voting, right after town had a bunch of clears or basically-clears happen -- without ever checking out their scum chat first.

2. They're going all out trying to get me lynched today and then try to throw suspicion between tool/tyler for the endgame (which we have been seeing.) This would need them to get Robert's replacement to vote me and one more person, but I'm not seeing the one more person and they can just coast back and watch Jake try to convince TOF without doing anything themselves

Yeah that's part of why I'm thinking it's not them together -- where's all the support for the Dunn lynch? I would think for both scum to hop on they'd want to see enough support for it to go through, and I don't know that that support existed/exists.

3. The mafia don't know what they're doing and just turned on me trying to get me lynched but didn't expect resistance

Of the three, this is the one I find most convincing. But I remember the timing of it all happening in such a way that I thought it would be weird for Creature to hop on to the wagon if he was scum buddies with Jaack.

The way that jaack and creature interact with bins - or ignore her sometimes is just so weird in my mind as it feels like they're kind of just not talking to her, and throwing very poor suspicion towards her.

Any specific examples you can point to?

[toolenduso]

Umm you left Dunn off your list. He's confirmed scum so it can be one scum in xy/Tyler & one in creature/jaack. Did you mean or?

I assume you're being cheeky, but to be clear here Dunn is in my pool of town clears. I don't see him doing what he did as a godfather.

Jaack is like third on my list of lynch priorities today, I'd rather do Creature or xyzzy. I'm thinking there is something to glean here from the fact that wagons have shifted between Creature, Jaack and xyzzy ever since Dunn's retraction, but I'm not quite sure what it is yet other than that I lean townTyler as a result.

[Dunnstral]

No examples for the ignoring her part just a general feel but for the poor suspicion things like "her claim is a coincidence" and bins being put in a lynch pool with me and jaack

What about my post 2064? Isn't that strange?