Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[Jaack]

VOTE: heuristically_alone

This isn't an rvs vote, this is an actual read and its' not changing for the rest of the day

I agree with this. Every post h_a has in this game so far has reeked of scum.

VOTE: heuristically_alone

[Jaack]

I'm here, just barely. I'd vote for Jake, cause I don't trust him, but I'm leaving town in a few hours.....

Not a fan of this post at all. Hesitant to vote on the first page? With literally the vaguest reason ever?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Robert2424

[Jaack]

More vague could be just saying that he's voting for "reasons", so that isn't true.

Well maybe not LITERALLLY the most vague but completely useless either way. It doesn't seem to be rvs but it does nothing to help.

[Jaack]

This feels a bit jumpy -

"vague"/weak is ok, it's early Day 1/RVS

. Choosing to vote/not vote with your opening post is

meh

(non-alignment indicative).
VOTE: Jaack

I don't have a problem with vague silliness in RVS/page one. I also don't have a problem with not voting page one.

I DO have a problem with making what appears to be a serious post, indicating suspicion, without voting, particularly at the very beginning of the game when there is very little risk. Being wishy-washy with votes coming out of RVS seems overly cautious. It's offering an opinion without justification or commitment. The feels a bit scummy to me.

I would like to hear why robert singled out Jake as someone not to trust.


In other news, Tyler and Keyser both seem pretty town. Initially I though Dunn looked like a vi, thought they have improved contentwise and also look towny.

I will agree that xyzzy's questions in 34 and 40 are bit awkward, although Dunn did seem a bit trollish at the time. Could be scum trying to trap a VI or could be town trying to deal with a loose cannon. Would like to here more about the purpose of those questions from xyzzy.

Retrospectively, don't really like ira's 29. He seems to be taking an issue with my phrasing as opposed to my assertion. Furthermore, he had voted for Robert right after I had.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: iraonavp

What was the purpose of post 29? And could you explain your Robert vote in 21?

Would also like to seem some non-Dunn related content from bins, tool, and zach (which totally sounds like a kids show or something)

@bins - What are your thoughts on robert's first post?
@tool - thoughts on xyzzy?
@zach - top scum read? If it's Dunn then give me your top town read instead.

[Jaack]

@Jaack It's really early. I'll speak on Dunn later, but I'll say if you start townreading him so easily then I am amused. Hahahahahahahah. I do like how Tyler is approaching things, though.

Could you explain your Tyler read a little more?

As for Dunn I don't exactly see anything that looks scum motivated. Trolly, sure but not particularly scummy.

I did find it interesting that multiple players (xyzzy, tool, bins) all focused their early efforts on dunn. I think there is scum in there looking for an easy mislynch.

Town read on dunn is weak, but I'm not seeing anything to change my mind on it.

[Jaack]

@tool - thoughts on xyzzy?

Pretty neutral. The posts people have been talking about do not look all that insidious to me -- this early in the game you have to weigh the possibility that people are looking for a mislynch against the possibility that people are trying to get the game going.

Fair enough.

As for me saying there is scum in {you, xyzzy, bins} are simply stating you are not scum or are you saying that none of the three of you are scum? I'm assuming its the former, but in the case of the latter, I would love to hear an explination.

I have a question for you, actually -- have your thoughts on Robert changed?

Nope, still don't like that post. But I find that ira post to be just about as bad, and ira, by virtue of not being vla, is a little more useful place to put my vote right now.

What do you think of Robert?


As for zach, I agree with your read and reasoning on Tyler. I don't think its ever to early to try and get reads -- some of my best reads are sometimes formed in the first three pages. Scum start playing from their first post, so why shouldn't townies? (That's a rhetorical question) I mean, you don't need to death tunnel someone from a page 2 gut read, but its important to take note of scummy or townie posting no matter where it takes place.

[Jaack]

OK - I can understand your reasoning about scum being over-cautious or self-conscience in early D1 play, but I am not seeing that fear/over-concern in Robert2424's opening post. I saw it as a RVS reply to Jake from State Farm's RVS vote.

"offering an opinion without justification or commitment"

? - I have never seen this on Page 1 of a game.

I like playing aggressively at the beginning of D1. At the very least, it gets discussion going, and sometimes you'll get lucky and catch scum.

And I still don't think that Robert's post was an RVS post. I mean you may be right, but it seems serious to me. Not that it really matters because when Robert comes back he can write it off as RVS either way.

[Jaack]

@Dunn

I haven't exactly been pushing super hard on robert. I didn't like the one post he's made and voted him for it. I've explained my thoughts on it whenever someone has questioned it. I get that pretty much no one is agreeing with me (aside from kind of Tyler I guess) but that doesn't mean I still don't find the post in question somewhat scummy.

But I'm not even voting for Robert right now anyway.

As for me "buddying" you, you listed an RVS post and two posts where I called you town. And apparently I wasn't aggressive enough towards you earlier. I wasn't aggressive with you early game because I didn't find your posts serious. Furthermore, there was little reason to engage you when everyone else already was.

As for the bolded thing in post 66 (your bold, not mine) I added it because I was interested on getting Zach to comment on a player who wasn't you, as the majority of his content to that point was about you.

[Jaack]

As I have said, I did not consider Robert's post to be RVS, and still don't think it was. I do understand how one can come to that interpretation, but it's not the one I find most convincing.

As for ira, his recent posting has solidified my read and vote on him. I don't thin one can be too dumb for scum - idiocy knows no alignment.

[Jaack]

alright, what about that post gave you the impression that robert was legit trying to convey suspicion of jake?

His hesitance to vote - most silly RVS junk is accompanied with a silly vote.

[Jaack]

@ mod: you have tool and Ira voting twice

fixed

[Jaack]

I would assume there is at least one scum on my wagon (I doubt there are four townies on my wagon when there's no competing wagons)

I'm still town reading keyser, and unless Zach gives non-gut reasons for thinking dunn is scum, I'm still inclined to think he's town.

So that leaves tool and xyzzy, who, coincidentally were also in my previous grouping (68) of possible scum. Have to reread those two.

[Jaack]

Woop looks like xyzzy is voting zach and not me.

@Mod Xyzzy is voting twice too

Ugh. I'll just stick to pen and paper

Well I guess it's just tool then.

[Jaack]

and unless Zach gives non-gut reasons for thinking dunn is scum, I'm still inclined to think he's town.

Why would you say this? What if he was going to give non0gut reasons and now he doesn't?

I don't understand what you mean. Why wouldnt Zach explain his read as a result of what I said?

[Jaack]

Why would you openly explain to him what to say to get "town read" or is this some kind of test or what? Let him think for himself no matter how muddled those thoughts may be

I was saying that I town read you but I was open to hearing a case. I just mentioned Zach because he"s the one voting you right now.

[Jaack]

@Dunn-if you could just come out and say what you're getting at regarding this zach-me thing inoted of being all cryptic it'd be nice so we can get on with it.

@bins-I would probably say my townread on Tyler is the strongest read I have thus far. He generally seems to try and get how people are thinking and base decisions on that.

Could you point out what you don't like about his posts?

[Jaack]

@jaack I'm not being cryptic

This is primarily what I'm talking about

@zach - top scum read? If it's Dunn then give me your top town read instead.

Remember when I said this looked out of place?

I don't know what you're seeing there that you don't like.

[Jaack]

@jaack I'm not being cryptic

This is primarily what I'm talking about

And this is what I'm talking about: yet again you're trying to steer the conversation into talking about nothing? I'm not being cryptic about anything, I was just pointing what you said out to reiterate that it actually was something weird and now you're hounding me over it

@zach - top scum read? If it's Dunn then give me your top town read instead.

Remember when I said this looked out of place?

I don't know what you're seeing there that you don't like.

Why are you ignoring Zach? I thought you townread me, or did that go away once I pushed on you? Once again why are you ignoring Zach?

I think we're talking past each other somehow, but whatever.

I do still townread you. I would like to here why Zach thinks your scum, but he's not giving any indication that it's anything other than gut.

[Jaack]

There's not much to say at this point, you lynch him, he flips scum, yay, you lynch him, he flips town, you lynch me.


More likely: You lynch me, I die, no one does anything about Dunnstral following this.

You seem to be 100% sure Dunn is scum. Okay. I'm not. In fact I'm leaning against it.

Tell me why I should vote for dunn. Using evidence.

[Jaack]

I'm less inclined to believe that jaack is mafia and would rather get bin

I'm actually having trouble reading bins. Could you tell me what changed your mind on your previous townread on him?

[Jaack]

Yeah, definitely not joining the bins wagon now... while I think dunn's argument has merit, I'm NOT joining a wagon with ira and tool on it.

Pedit-Tyler is right, 210 is a bad post.

Pedit x2-but ira votes are good votes. Still have mixed feelings for bins.

[Jaack]

Oh lol thought tool was voting bins. When dunn voted bins in 165 he was quoting dunn. I guess my brain assumed tool was voting bins.

But as for tool=scum he has largely been going with what was popular at the time (early dunn questioning, my mini wagon) it's not much, but it gives me a lingering feeling he's scum.

[Jaack]

Does knowing that I'm not on the wagon change the way you feel about the Bins wagon at all?

Ira's presence alone is a deal breaker for me. But you not being on it makes bins alignment messier from my pov. Still like the ira wagon a lot better, but the bins wagon doesn't really look like a mislynch waiting to happen anymore.

'twas coincidence, not cause.

(It wasn't that I was following other people, it was that I happened to think something was significant and I wasn't the only one to think that)

That's reasonable enough, but it doesn't change my read on you all that much.

@floof - What makes you thin Zach is town? What do you think of his "case" on dunn?

[Jaack]

I see this now - what's your read on tool?

Scum, but not super scum. Probably my no 2 scum read after ira, but definately an order of magnitude less scum than ira.

Did not like 210 for the "I'm gonna vote a lurker cause you're all so town" aspect. Looked like bins recognized he was about to do something scummy and decided to butter us up with townreads to make us ignore his scumminess.

Methinks a townie would have just voted for a lurker.

[Jaack]

That's poor logic, you will end up with fragile and distant reads if you think like this.

How is this bad logic at all? If I think 2/3 players on a wagon are scum, why would I support that wagon?

Why to you keep saying that you're town? How is that going to convince anyone?

Why do you always nitpick about minor wordings and other junk as opposed to arguing against, you know, the meaning of the post?

Why are you so obviously scum?

[Jaack]

OK I tried looking back on the game I played with ira where he was scum, but pretty much decided it wouldn't be all that useful. Turns out he'd only just joined the site like a week or two before that game started. Also the circumstances were pretty different early on in that game -- we had a townie fakeclaiming jailkeeper by page four. Whereas we're 11 pages into this game and still haven't really run anybody up.

Link please? Would like to take a look.

[Jaack]

Uff been the nasty combination of overworked and sick these past couple of days. Gonna try and give this game the attention it deserves and take a look at the players who until recently were silent.

[Jaack]

Okay readslist time:
Town:
Keyser
Tyler
Dunn
xyzzy
zach
tool
Bins
JFSF
Floof
Robert
h_a
ira
:Scum

Keyser - Like most of Keyser's observations and questions. In fact, sometimes I'll read a post, note something down only to find that Keyser already said exactly what I was going to say.

Tyler - Tyler's basically been at the top of my townlist since the beginning. Most of his concerns seem well-founded.

Dunn - Feeling more and more confident that Dunn is town. His suspicion of me felt more like it was coming from town misunderstanding where I was coming from instead of scum trying to manipulate what I had said. Despite receiving a significant ammount of attention in the early game, I never felt as if Dunn was acting particularly survivalistic which gives him a couple of town points.

xyzzy - Has less content than I remembered, but the more recent stuff is pretty good. I do have a couple of questions for you that I'll plop at the end of the post where I like to put my questions.

zach - Annoying but mostly harmless. Seems like a possible mislynch target to look out for.

tool - Reread makes me feel a lot better here. Lingering scum feelings mostly gone. Like the questions in 316 in particular.

Bins - Like some of his observations, particularly 217 which highlights some of the many problems with ira. Still have some hesitance about his early behavior in relation to dunn, but still decently town

JFSF - Is very wrong about readlists, but nothing else about him strikes me as bad. Has been a bit abrasive, but that is a bit of a towntell for me. Not sure about 298 as I don't like h_a much at all, but Jake has a general town feeling about him

Floof - Has posted almost nothing, both in terms of quality and quantity. Calls me scum with minimal reasons, then flops over to h_a for even fewer reasons. Seems to think zach is town. That's about it. 4/9 posts have no game related content at all.

Robert - Like floof, he has little content. Still have the bad feels from his first post (I know, I know, let's not rehash this again). Seems kind of sheepy in the few posts he does have. Don't really like how he has 4 scum reads and only 1 town read in 331. Also don't like how he's mostly ignored all the hubbub about his slot from the early game when he wasn't here.

h_a - Do not like his reads in 281 like at all. Says he doesn't have enough content to judge me fully (?), but feels everyone on my wagon is scummy. Reads to me like someone who knows I'm town and wants to leave as many option open in terms of a future lynch on me. (Keyser saw a similar thing in 311) If he doesn't participate on hypothetical future wagon, then he can point back here and say 'told you so' while also not committing to a full town read on me. Also don't like how he doesn't give reads on ira, dunn, or keyser in that post. He did give a read on ira earlier so I can kind of understand leaving that one out, but leaving out dunn and keyser is weird, as neither are exactly inactive, and h_a had even interacted with dunn significantly before that. If one of {h_a, dunn, keyser} flips scum its probably worth going back and checking out the other two based on this post alone, even though I'm townreading the other two players here pretty hard.

ira - Still think this reeks of scum. Have not seen one town-looking post from ira.



That's most of my thoughts right now, but I have a few questions:

@xyzzy - It might be hidden in one of your longer posts and I just missed it, but what are your thoughts on h_a? And could you explain your zach-scum thinking a little more.

@floof - Tell me about tool and JFSF

[Jaack]

Actually
UNVOTE:
VOTE: heuristically_alone

Ira is more scummy, but I would like to see some pressure on this player.

[Jaack]

I'm actually not wrong about reads lists at all. Clearly you don't know enough about how to play mafia and the art of manipulation. Being able to manipulate town is the best way to win as scum and the more info the scum has, the more they are able to manipulate town.

Being able to lynch scum is the best way to win as town and the more info the town his, the more they are able to lynch scum.

[Jaack]

And if you still disagree with me that's cool. We'll agree to disagree

Fair enough. I think readlists help with relational tells as well as PoE, so I find them usefill, but I won't press you for one since you are clearly against it.

[Jaack]

@jaack: Why did you want pressure on H_A specifically?

H_A is my number 2 scumspect after ira, and I didn't feel as if my vote on ira was accomplishing much (there's only so many times I can hear him call himself town).

[Jaack]

Looking over this.

First - His reads and your reads aren't that different. I mean sure there are some people he has scummy and you have as town and vice versa but it looks like a bunch of people you both sort of agree on. I am not sure why him having different reads than you makes him suspicious. Clearly not everyone is going to share your viewpoint so scum reading him for that is just plain stupid. here is what I put together comparing reads between the 2. The bolded names are where the reads are the same or pretty close to each other which makes me wonder if Jaack actually compared ha's reads to his own.

Spoiler:

Tyler - Town (Jaack & HA)

Keyser - Town (jack) scum (ha)

Tyler - both town
Dunn - both town
xyzzy - both town

zach - Town (Jack) Scum (HA)
tool - town (jack) slightly suspicious (ha)
Bins - Decently town (jack) - leaning scum (ha)

JFSF - both townish

Floof - Don't really give a read but I sense scummy vibes from Jack, leaning scum (ha)

Robert - neither really give a strong read but both seem mildly suspicious

ira - scum (jack) town (ira)

Well first of all, even if we may 'agree' on certain reads, I didn't like the route he took to get to certain reads.

Secondofly, it's nearly impossible to not have similar opinions about half the players in the game due to the scum-town ratio. Note that we don't share any scumreads besides robert, (at least I think that H_A is scumreading robert right now. seems to change every post). And really, our reads aren't all that similar - he's scumreading my best townread in Keyser and townreading my best scumread in ira.

Second - I am not sure what about his post makes you think he knows you are town, but he did say he has you in his town pile so i don't see why you have such an issue with him looking at the people voting you for scum. Seems like you should be doing the same thing yourself (no idea if you actually did or not)

I did look at the players scumreading me back when that was a thing. It was a while ago and it led me to suspect tool for a bit.

But as for H_A, I was concerned that he only very hesitantly called me town, but then based his entire reads on floof and tool based on them voting for me. Felt like a disconnect there.

Third - yes Kaiser made the same mistake as you did and it actually looks like you just stole Keyser's thought about him knowing you are town. There is absolutely nothing wrong with somebody thinking a player is town and questioning people on that wagon. Keyser calls it conf. bias but so what, people do it all the time and there isn't really anything suspicious about it. How either of you come to the conclusion that he somehow KNOWS you are town is beyond me.

I don't have a problem with questioning people on a wagon you don't like. But something felt off to me about the way that H_A was doing it that makes me uncomfortable.

why didn't you ask him for them? Anyways as you mention he does give a read on ira previously (town). he also gave a read on Dunn (town), and also for keyser (while he doesn't actually come out and say town or scum, he basically adds on to Dunn's read of Keyser from post 82 where dunn says he thinks keyser is mafia. I believe he also thinks keyser is mafia because he provides reasons for why dunn has come to that conclusion.

Well it's probably goofy, but my instant reaction to noticing that he left of 3 players is that he accidentally forgot to include his scumbuddies. It's probably not the right conclusion to jump to, particularly because I think that Dunn and Keyser are town, but it is something that stuck out to me. I just find it odd that someone would post a list of reads on almost everyone. That feels odd to me logistically, which I guess doesn't have to mean scummy.

As for not asking him, I thought I had, but I'm a doofus that apparently can't keep track of three questions to ask.

[Jaack]

Well it's probably goofy, but my instant reaction to noticing that he left of 3 players is that he accidentally forgot to include his scumbuddies.

Oh I fully admit it's dumb. But sometimes it's hard to stop your brain from thinking things you know to be dumb.

[Jaack]

I don't like spoilers, so at least I can read it after I quote it.

I disagree with the idea of making a pool of players just because they voted someone, trying to predict the actions of scum-aligned players. But all that really matters is whether or not he believes what he is saying.

And? What was the purpose of this?

[Jaack]

Am I the only one not buying H_A claim? Doc is a pretty standard scumclaim, and combined with the lame AtE and the timing (L-2) makes it stink to me.

That being said, it probably isn't the best idea to lynch h_a D1 when there are similarly good options available.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: iraonavp

[Jaack]

Well one of ira and h_a is certainly scum. While u do think it's probably h_a, since ira was the likely lynch otherwise, I don't think it's necessarily confirmed. There's also a chance that their both scum pulling a gambit, but that's probably not accurate, and if it is it will fail fairly easily.

[Jaack]

and yes ira doesn't have a reason to do this as scum

I disagree with this. After h_a's claim, ira was the most likely lynch by a decent margin. Claiming now would buy scum-ira a day (and in the very unlikely event they're scumbuddies, 2+ days)

That being said, H_A is and should be the lynch today as he is still the likelier scum between them.

I am fine with an H_A lynch whenever, but I won't vote right now since people want to say things

[Jaack]

UNVOTE:

Aaaaand the nail in the coffin: H_A didn't vote for the guy counterclaiming him.

Intent to Hammer

I'll hammer in like ~14ish hours unless someone else does/someone wants to say something for whatever reason.

[Jaack]

H_A, and Iraon was both on my scum list, but this development tends to make me believe they are both more townie. That probably sounds really strange, but hey, Zuffy decided to make me a weak townie so there it is. I thought my role was weird, but it makes more sense with those roles in the game. I'm in 80% sure both are town now and think the wagon should be dissolved. I could be wrong, and one or both are lying, but its unlikely.

What are you talking about?

Why would you so blatantly crumb some sort of unique role without telling us what it is? Like what?

[Jaack]

What you're describing is the macho modifier. Weak means you die when you target scum. Which doesn't make sense if you can't, you know, target people.

Pedit: what Jake said.

[Jaack]

Well now that we have two confirmed scum in Robert and H_A, who do you wanna lynch first?

[Jaack]

I don't see the scum motivation behind Roberts claim unless he's trying to save H_A which is possible

I don't see the town motivation in lying.

[Jaack]

Please explain how I'm confirmed scum. The jury still out on you too.

Ignoring the bad attempt to throw shade on me, in order for me to consider you town, I would have to assume that we are in a ridiculous setup with multiple protective roles, that you have the ridiculous role of macho townie, AND that the mod made an error in your role pm.

In order for me to consider you scum, I have to assume you are lying.

[Jaack]

@jack. Then talk to zuffy. I don't like the modifier. So, Lynch me then if your so sure I'm lying. Cause at this point no matter if they are both town or 1 is lying. The protective roles are now outed. I'm just a townie who "refuses to be protected". If you think zuffy made a mistake, by all, tell zuffy then.

I assume you are lying because you repeatedly referred to your role by an incorrect name. I don't believe for a second that you claim to have never heard of the macho modifier when it supposedly is your role (you know, the thing you had to confirm via pm before the game).

[Jaack]

It's not merely about misreading a role pm.

It's that he claimed never to have heard of his role despite understanding what it does and having confirmed it in pregame. (See 587)

That being said, let's try to work out what we should do.

So let's assume for a second that all three of ira, h_a, and Robert are telling the truth about their roles.

Robert would be little more than a named townie with only the macho modifier. Since doc is slightly better than bg, h_a would be slightly more useful than ira. So the "best" lynch in this scenario would be robert, and then have ira protect h_a and h_a protect someone aside from ira.

Assuming at least one is scum, then once again Robert is the best lynch, as it's highly doubtful that a macho townie with no night role exists in a game with just a lone doc/bg. If one of ira/h_a is scum, Robert almost certainly is as well.

I guess there is the possibility they are all scum pulling a ridiculous gambit, but that is infinitesimally unlikely and would become obvious by d3.

VOTE: robert2424

Most logical place to start.

[Jaack]

I think at this point either they're both town or they're both scum.

I definitely still think it's possible for robert to be town and H_A to be mafia even pretty likely

I do understand why robert would out his role there - why are people starting to vote robert here? I personally believe he's town and that h_a is possible mafia regardless of what robert is

There are four scenarios:

1. All three claimants are town
2. Two of them are town, the other is scum
3. Two of them are scum, the other is town
4. They are all scum

Scenario 4 is ridiculous but in the 1/10000 chance it is true, it doesn't matter who we lynch first.

Scenario 2 is just about as unlikely due to Robert's claim. His claim doesn't make much sense if he's the only scum: he was trying to stop a lynch on one of two prs in that scenario.
Ira or h_a being scum alone is maybe possible, but it wouldn't really make sense with Robert's role. Macho townie is a really strange role unless there are multiple protective options.

In scenario 3, Robert has to be scum. Scum counterclaiming scum with protective roles in a game with a macho townie is absurd.

Scenario 1 is unlikely but not unreasonable.

This means the three possible arrangements are all town; Robert and h_a scumbuddies; Robert and ira scumbuddies.


If these are in fact the three possibilities, lynching Robert gives us the most info on a town flip. A town flip from h_a does not really help us.

[Jaack]

Of course a scum flip is the best case scenario

[Jaack]

I mean, you make some salient points. But there are a couple of points not quite making it all the way through my head:

Scenario 2 is just about as unlikely due to Robert's claim. His claim doesn't make much sense if he's the only scum: he was trying to stop a lynch on one of two prs in that scenario.

Wouldn't it only make sense for Robert to have been trying to stop HA's lynch, given the fact that Robert didn't claim until

after

ira counterclaimed? Put another way, ira was not in danger -- so how could scumRobert's claim have been a means of getting scumIra out of the noose?

And if it is the case that Robert-ira doesn't make sense as a scum team, then doesn't that change your possible arrangements to {all three are town} or {Robert and HA are scum together; ira is town}?

The Robert/ira scum team is definitely the least likely, which is why we should lynch HA first if robert flips scum. But if we assume that that is reality for a moment, then the second that HA flipped town (which he is in this scenario) ira would be basically confirmed scum. Robert would be preemptively protecting his scumbuddy I guess. It doesn't make that much sense but its probably the 3rd most likely case.

Ira or h_a being scum alone is maybe possible, but it wouldn't really make sense with Robert's role. Macho townie is a really strange role unless there are multiple protective options.

I don't believe I've ever played with a macho role and I don't really understand why it would make more sense to have a macho role with two protective town PRs than with one protective town PR.

Well macho town with no night role is almost 100% pointless. Macho is primarily used to balance a powerful role in a game with a doctor (e.g. a Cop+Doc is really powerful, while a Macho Cop+Doc is reasonable). There isn't really any reason for a Macho VT to exist in general. In order for such a role to come into play, both a doc and a nk would have to target what is essentially a VT. In order for that role to make any amount of sense, there would have to be multiple protects. Even then, it still seems weird, particularly if Robert is the only Macho townie.

Doc+BG is weird. Macho VT is weird. Doc+BG+Macho VT is weird, but there is a bit of logic there.

[Jaack]

The Robert/ira scum team is definitely the least likely, which is why we should lynch HA first if robert flips scum. But if we assume that that is reality for a moment, then the second that HA flipped town (which he is in this scenario) ira would be basically confirmed scum. Robert would be preemptively protecting his scumbuddy I guess. It doesn't make that much sense but its probably the 3rd most likely case.

So you're arguing that we should lynch Robert first because ira/Robert is still possible, if unlikely?

That's part of it. It's also better in the event they are all town, as macho townie is by far the weakest of the three roles. It doesn't matter all that much since in that event scum probably nks the two surviving claimants on successive nights, but I guess there is a small chance that having an outed doc/bg could be useful while an outed macho townie has no chance of being beneficial.

[Jaack]

Like if I were to put totally made up odds on it

64% - Robert and HA are scum, Ira is town
30% - All Town
5% - Robert and ira scum, HA town
1% - Something stupid

[Jaack]

@Jaack: Idk...I mean, I get what you're saying. I think we disagree about the likelihood of a Robert/ira scum team. But I'm also a little afraid that if we don't lynch HA now, he gets off the hook.

I don't think there's much of a chance of that happening.

Robert is the right vote. He's probably scum, and if he is town, his role is less than useless. We can lynch HA D2.

[Jaack]

Why Robert is scum:

1. His claim does not add up, particularly if one of HA or ira is scum. Macho VT is a role that just doesn't exist, particularly if the only protective role is a bg, which is perfectly balanced.

2. His claim was done idiotically.
He soft claims something that could explain both HA and ira being town in 563.
He then says that he is a 'week townie' (583) but describes the macho modifier. The weak modifier is literally nonsensical without a night action (if you're weak, you die if you target scum).
Jake and I tell him he is not referring to the correct role (584 and 586)
Robert claims to have never heard of macho in 587 while reaffirming he is weak.
In 596 he says his pm says he is weak.
Then in 604 he claims his role pm says macho, after four people (jake, bins, tool, and myself) tell him that what he's claiming makes no sense.

[Jaack]

Jack. If your going to mention me in your posts. Please use proper grammar. Out of all the people who suspect me, you make the least amount of sense. I literally reread some of your posts several times.

P.S. your %'s make 0 sense.

Reading comprehension is your friend. I literally write for a living, so, you know, I know how to grammar good.

My percents were my opinions of how likely each scenario was. I don't see how they wouldn't make sense.

It's also nice how you failed to criticize any of the points I made.

I also have no clue what you are talking about with the vig thing. My plan was to lynch you today and, assuming you flip scum, lynch HA tomorrow. But seeing as there doesn't seem to be significant support for that, I guess HA is okay enough to vote

VOTE: heuristically_alone

That's L-1.

[Jaack]

VOTE: Robert2424

I have a big post detailing why this is scum on the way, but for now I'll park my vote here.

In other news, a couple parts of 698 give me scumvibes. Xyzzy uses a lot of words to say very little, at least in terms of opinion.

I also don't like the unnecessary apology for tunneling zach. Looks like scum that's too self aware of how they're playing.

[Jaack]

Why Robert2424 is a scum and all of you need to vote for him: A Brief Essay

Robert2424 is a scum and should be lynched, preferably on Day 2. He has done many scummy things so far in this game. First of all, he has a insanely scummy claim. He softclaims his role 563, calling it a weak townie. He later repeatedly refers to himself as such, despite such a role neither making sense nor matching the description he gives as to what his role does. It is not until a number of players point out his mistake that he 'checks his PM' and confirms that he is actually macho. He does this in post 603 after affirming that his PM said weak in 596. However, even if we were to explain away this as an honest mistake, his claim is still terrible. The Macho modifier, while theoretically conceivable on an otherwise vanilla role, is virtually always seen on something with a night action, generally a powerful one, so as to balance it. While this role claim may have been believable when there were two claimed protective roles, with heuristically_alone flipping scum, it eliminates that possibility. A sole bodyguard is already a weak protective role and does not really need to be weakened further with the addition of a random VT that can not be protected. Overall his claim makes no sense.

Some of you may be wondering "Why would Robert make such a bad claim?" This is a reasonable response, but there is an equally reasonable answer. Robert was attempting to save his scumbuddy, heuristically_alone, who at the point of his claim, was the inevitable lynch target. He attempts to use his role to 'explain' how there could be two protective roles in the game. While this attempt clearly failed to save HA, it did result in more than one person considering the possibility that both he and iraonavp were telling the truth. While this gambit may seem like a bad idea, it does not make it impossible. Furthermore, his claim no more sense than the hypothetical gambit. When something makes this little sense, the best option is probably to lynch it and get an explanation.

If you are still not convinced of Robert's guilt, I offer further evidence of it. In Day 1, when I, along with other players, pointed out the issues with his claim, he attempted to shift blame to our benevolent mod, as seen in posts 563, 596, and 603. In addition, when I attempted to start a wagon on him, instead of responding to my accusations he attempted to discredit me, both by not-very-subtly pointing out that I could be scum (596) and by later deriding my clearly superior grammar 671. (For more on this, see the spoiler below.) Robert has clearly avoided my accusations, instead choosing to post meaningless trifles. I am not the only player that Robert does this with, as he makes a similar micro-accusation towards Tyler in 563.

While you can surely see Robert's guilt at this point, for the sake of posterity, I will continue with my analysis of his extreme scumminess. His first two posts in this game (12 and 134) are both fluffy votes discussions of his history with Jake from State Farm, with Robert going as far to say that he is suspicious of Jake due to their previous history. While the first such post may be explained away as being RVS, the second one essentially repeats his previous statement, despite the fact that there had been significant discussion of the first post as being possibly scummy. While fluff in the early game is somewhat acceptable, the fact that Robert has very little content to begin with makes the high percentage of fluff notable.

Continuing, in 331 Robert offers some brief reads on players in the game. He states that he has scumreads on four players: Ira, Zach, HA, and Jake. With the exception of Jake, these were the most widely held scumreads at the time. His read on HA is particularly notable as he only 'barely nudges' his way onto his scum list. Now it may seem understandable to view widely scumread players as scummy -- they wouldn't be widely scumread if they were not. But we must also take a look at his townreads, or should I say read. Robert specifically says that Dunn is the only player he is townreading and that everyone else is null. This is an extremely scummy list of reads.

Aside from these scummy things, the only other thing Robert did Day One was apologize for his inactivity. He did not attempt to scumhunt in any way and did not offer defense towards his actions other than 'you might be scum'. Robert2424 is scum and should be lynched today.

Finally, let's consider the actions of the playerbase as a whole at the end of Day 1 as they relate to robert. A brief summary: Scum-HA was wagoned and he claimed doctor prematurely. Players quickly unvoted but then town-ira counterclaimed him resulting in basically everyone re-voting HA. Wagon stalled briefly while people talked, but pretty much everyone agreed HA was scum. I gave intent to hammer in 556. Then Robert comes in with his lolclaim and we all wait around to figure stuff out before we lynch HA.

That's when I made a push to lynch Robert instead and wait to lynch HA D2. Now you would think that if Robert were in fact town, scum would jump on the opportunity to lynch him instead. Not even now-confirmed scum HA voted Robert. But literally only one person, Tyler, voted for Robert after I did. This scenario makes a lot more sense if Robert is scum.

Robert2424 is scum and we should lynch him.

Spoiler: A Brief Grammar Lesson

Robert2424 made a disparaging remark regarding my skills at writing in the English language. He could not be more incorrect in this accusation, particularly considering his own poor grammar. Let's take a look at that accusation. Exhibit A:

Jack. If your going to mention me in your posts. Please use proper grammar.

This is truly a statement without any sense of self-awareness. The first thing that jumps out is the incorrect use of 'your'. The correct word there would have been the contraction 'you're' or, alternatively, the full form, 'you are'. Continuing, this brief thought contains a clearly evident sentence fragment. The clause "If you're going to mention me in your posts" is a dependent clause, as it begins with the word 'if' which is a rather common subordinating conjunction. Any clause that begins with a subordinating conjunction must be accompanied with an independent clause, and can be separated from such clause with a comma. Robert's statement does have a candidate independent clause, specifically "Please use proper grammar", but he separates this from the aforementioned dependent clause with a period, not a comma. While I might have been willing to believe this was a mere typo and not a grammatical violation, when one considers that the independent clause began with a capital letter, it becomes apparent that this was no minor typing peccadillo.

While I could continue with my critique of Robert's grammar, which has been consistently inadequate, for the sake of time, I will leave it at that

[Jaack]

Then Robert comes in with his lolclaim and we all wait around to figure stuff out before we lynch HA.

What's the scum motivation for this? If scum is about to be lynched why would scum out themselves like that? They wouldn't.

The fact nobody hopped on Robert doesn't mean anything either. Ha's lynch was a done deal the moment a cc happened. No scum would risk exposing themselves by hopping onto Robert

I explained this in the second paragraph, but here is the relevant quote from Robert that explains scum motivation:

H_A, and Iraon was both on my scum list, but this development tends to make me believe they are both more townie. That probably sounds really strange, but hey, Zuffy decided to make me a weak townie so there it is. I thought my role was weird, but it makes more sense with those roles in the game.

I'm in 80% sure both are town now and think the wagon should be dissolved

. I could be wrong, and one or both are lying, but its unlikely.

Emphasis Added

It was a bad scum move, but I still think it was a scum move.

[Jaack]

Dude you aren't using common sense right now and that bolded doesn't make him look scummy. Trust me I think his claim is weird but there's literally no reason for him to make it as scum. I thought he was scum also But when I apply logic and common sense I just don't see scum intent. We can just agree to disagree I guess.

Robert literally claimed in order to prevent the lynch of a player who is confirmed scum. How can you not see scum intent in that?

[Jaack]

The Macho modifier, while theoretically conceivable on an otherwise vanilla role, is virtually always seen on something with a night action, generally a powerful one, so as to balance it.

What are you basing this on? Did you research this?

I just did a site search for macho townie. This is the most recent appearance of such a role I can find: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=30753

I should note that there were no protecting roles in that game, making the macho townie, in essence, a named townie.

Since then, two players have fakeclaimed macho townie, one being scum and the other a bomb.

I also found a brief discussion in MD of fakeclaiming macho as town in order to draw a night kill (I imagine that's what the bomb was trying to do). The only person who responded to that proposal said they would lynch anyone who claimed macho townie

Most macho roles I found were some sort of investigative role, with a few docs thrown in.

Searched for macho vt. Found another game from 2012 with one, and a proposed open set up that kind of revolved around the idea, that as far as I can tell was never played.

So that's two, and none in nearly 3 years. That's actually more common than I expected.

[Jaack]

zakk>>xyzzy>>>>>>robert

everyone else is town

While I may not agree on the order, I do agree that this is where all of our scum is.

[Jaack]

I do think that zakk is a solid lynch, but I am a bit concerned with how quickly this push on him developed....

And I don't think that scum would bus in this situation either. Assuming that there are 3 scum (which I think is a safe assumption as there was only 1 nk), if scum-zakk were lynched today, scum would have to navigate 3 mislynches to get to 3 player lylo.

Since it doesn't look like anyone is going to support me with Robert, I'd rather lynch xyzzy.

[Jaack]

C-c-catching up!

[Jaack]

Zakk just said he didn't get his role and zachstral is literally blindly defending him regardless

This is the only thing to come out of the 'zakk doesn't have a pm' junk to be particularly of note. Hard townreading a player with as little content as floof is weird, and any reads whatsoever on zakk's play are inconsiquential. I would ask Zach for an explination, but I'm not going to get one.

That being said I still think zach is town. He's just moved from "town I can mostly skim" to "town, but be careful" in my head.

Gah, I've been too trusting of my gut reads. I need a break already.

Maybe I'll revert back to my scum reads in the first few pages because I'm too paranoid.

Something rubbed me wrong about bins most of d2, but nothing as much as this here. Prior to this, bins had just floated tool and I as possible suspects (924 and 926). Felt like scum fishing for possible alternatives/mislynches down the road. But then bins backtracks in the two quoted posts when no one bit.

Bins moves from "probably town because other people are more scum" to "fairly scum, could wagon"

Why do you want to get xyzzy

Hated their entrance into D2 (see 708 for details). Also, this looks awful in light of HA's flip.

357 (Jaack) - I feel like overall,

h_a has made relatively few major contributions, but I feel good about the ones he's made

; he makes it pretty clear that he leans toward you being town, and while I think basing a scum lean solely on the fact that someone is voting for someone you think is town is pretty flimsy, I don't think it's necessarily super telling. I think his small number of contributions is bad, so overall,

I feel a little negative about h_a, but not super negative

. and basically my vote on Zachstralkita is because he's specifically avoided making contributions to the game time and time again without any justifiable reason, and the few contributions he does make all end up using deeply flawed logic. I think he specifically tries to prevent information from flowing through his posts, stalling the game with nonsense. at least Jake (my #2 scum read) has the courtesy to come up with (bad) reasons for his lack of contribution.

Bolded the relevant bad things.

Contradictions on a scum player is not a good look.

More D1 junk - xyzzy'z behavior toward the HA wagon was pretty scummy. They repeatedly said they were fine with an HA lynch, but never voted HA nor gave a good reason for not voting HA if he did indeed support the lynch (more time to discuss is not my idea of a good reason). Had a vote parked on Zach but never really pushed that.

Also, all the stuff Tyler said.

[Jaack]

This game is weird in that everyone likes to post big walls of analysis but nobody seems to be reading each others stuff

When ever I'm phone-posting/reading, this is 100% true, but then I get on the computer and realize that that huge wall and skimmed was like two and a half lines. And then I feel bad about myself.

[Jaack]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: xyzzy
Game is slowing down and my vote on Robert isn't doing anything. This wagon looks fun too.

[Jaack]

All I know is that scum is playing really well right now effort-wise! Good job, guys! I am quite impressed!

Trying to figure out if this is some kind of weird slip or just weirdly worded/thought

It sounds like scum trying to fake a townslip. Although it kind of fits in with the "I am confused about everyone" thing that bins has been doing this whole game.

[Jaack]

Why are people suddenly scum reading me?

[Jaack]

I feel bad for not posting, but there is very little I have to add.

@tyler: you still think xyzzy is probscum right?

[Jaack]

What do you think of the possibility that zakk and xyzzy aren't both mafia at this point? (Meaning one is town)

(I'm assuming this is intended for me)

Reasonably likely. Robert is still a point of contention in my mind, but I can see I've gotten no traction there. As I said before, bins has looked scummy D2 as well. Really, I'm not super convinced that zakk is scum at this point. Of the four people I could see myself voting right now {xyzzy, robert, bins, zakk} he's the least scummy.

I am also not particularly confident that this town, with all of its fractures, has managed to push two wagons on scum D2 and none on anyone else.

I'll have to reread some stuff if you want me to make totally made-up percentages again.

[Jaack]

It's not a wagon in my mind unless there's a reasonable chance of a person getting lynched.

[Jaack]

zakk is like my number 4 lynch choice after robert, xyzzy, and bins, but xyzzy is the only one of those that seems to have a chance at happening right now.

Eh whatever. Better to have a vote on a wagon than not
VOTE: zakk
That's L-1

[Jaack]

slightly spooked how quickly xy's wagon vanished

I would much rather wagon xyzzy than zakk. I only jumped ship because one vote isn't much of a wagon.

[Jaack]

Last is Jaak - his eh why the hell not attitude really rubs me wrong. With so much time in the day there's no reason to give up his top scum reads and vote his 4th.

I've been pushe'd all three of my better scumreads. The game stagnated and I saw no traction, so I moved my vote to where it would be most useful.

When I pushed Robert you just told me to shut up because I was being stupid. For the sake of not allowing the game to fall into endless bickering, I stopped pushing there. I could go back to pushing robert, but you'll just yell at me, and it'll go nowhere.

I pushed xyzzy. I'm still pretty sure their scum. I would love to lynch them today, but all the people interested in this lynch would rather lynch someone else. That actually makes me feel that this is even more scummy, but everyone seems to be stuck on zakk and dunn.

No one seems to be talking about bins at all. Well I guess dunn brought up the rollfishing thing. I wasn't really seeing that, but I have other concerns with bins that I have already addressed.

Nothing I've been saying seems to be swaying people much. I've kind of come to terms that that's how it's gonna be right now. Floof/zakk is definitely not my preferred lynch, but I'd rather rather that be the lynch than dunn, who is not reading scum to me at all.

If you wanna actually discuss someone aside from zakk or dunn, I'm more than willing, but that's all anyone seems to care about.

[Jaack]

You can Chime in on Zach, Jaack. I'd actually be more comfortable with a Zach lynch then Zakk lynch. If your still reading my posts that is.

Zach is probably town. I don't exactly see some larger plan in what he's doing--he seems to base everything on whims and gut, which doesn't read as scummy to me at all.

I also think its worth noting that HA only really pushed a Zach lynch even after being counterclaimed by ira. My gut reaction is that he wouldn't be so blatant about lynching a scumbuddy, but I have no logic/evidence to back this up.

[Jaack]

im bored

unvote
vote:xyzzy

This is a better choice that I can wholeheartedly endorse.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: xyzzy

[Jaack]

My first reaction to bins vote was to think it was opportunistic, but then I remembered that bins had a ton of posts while xyzzy was sitting at L-3 and didn't vote then.

This isn't to say that bins is out of my scumpile, just to say that I don't find that vote scummy.

[Jaack]

Jaack is like so obvscum in his choices
His moves
His opportunism
I don't feel scum is that careless to just hop on everything... And I mean everything

What are you seeing that is opportunistic in what I've done?

[Jaack]

And wait... Tyler and I have been pretty similar in who we're voting for and why? How are you reading us so oppositely.

Pedit - xyzzy is scummier, so I definitely prefer that vote to bins.

The only reason I voted zakk was because he was the scummiest person that had a reasonable wagon on them at the time, and as I said earlier, no one was even addressing my bins reads, so I never saw a vote there going anywhere.

I don't think that xyzzy-bins is a particularly unlikely scumteam

[Jaack]

Good lord it's impossible to keep up with this thread right now

[Jaack]

I don't think that xyzzy-bins is a particularly unlikely scumteam

But Bins waffled around and tried to get the zakk lynch stopped, and then voted for xyzzy

Or do you think Bins is hardcore bussing

I don't think it's impossible that it's bussing. Could also be scum trying to play up confusion.

My scum reads on bins and xyzzy are pretty independent of each other, so I'd definitely reevaluate after a flip, but I don't see any interactions between the two that makes their partnership impossible.

[Jaack]

Good lord it's impossible to keep up with this thread right now

Hit the refresh button.

It's not that, it's the whole "write two sentences only to have six new posts to deal with" thing.

[Jaack]

Time will tell. May be the best "newb" gut feeling of all time. May not be.

To keep pressing someone, obviously town, into getting lynched after a simple mistake is a bit scummish.

If you're so obviously town, why did you vote for yourself?

[Jaack]

I've read up. Wow, that was a lot. Happy to be in and I have a few reads. With that being said.

Vote:zakk

That should be hammer time?

Okay I can't be the only one....

Let's make believe that Desmond is telling the truth that he didn't know that he was, in fact, zakk.

Coming into the game and 'hammering' without warning is still super scummy.

[Jaack]

Yeah I'm coming around on this being scum. Still interested in an xyzzy lynch, but there is just too much weirdness coming from that slot to ignore.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Desmond_13

L-1

[Jaack]

And I must be the only fucking one who thinks hes still town

Why?

How?

[Jaack]

By the way it's safe to ignore Zachstral from this point forward

Well, yes, but I kind of want to know anyway.

[Jaack]

It's safe to ignore it because it's not a vote for a player that is in this game.

[Jaack]

You still haven't explained why you tried to hammer without giving intent.

[Jaack]

You still haven't explained why you tried to hammer without giving intent.

This is intended for Desmond obviously

[Jaack]

I only post here to say I have nothing to post after the long delay.

[Jaack]

Normally I like VCA-ing mislynches, but the ridiculousness surrounding that slot makes me a bit hesitant to trust it too much in this case.

That being said, I'll do a bit.

Floof/zakk/desmond seemed to be the inevitable lynch for most of D2 - every time the wagon shifted to xyzzy, that wagon stalled, and I don't think there was ever really enough support for a dunn lynch. No one else had any significant wagon unless I'm forgetting something. This kind of leads me to believe that there was at least one scum off the wagon. The only three living players that meet this criteria are Tyler, Bins, and Keyser/Creature (who I now have an opportunity to welcome). I had a scum read on bins and still think she's a viable scum. Tyler I've been hard townreading most of this game, but that's a bit shaken now, mainly due to his aborting the wagon when it was at its weakest point (when zakk requested replacement). Looking back to D1, he was also the only person who went along with my plan to lynch Robert over now confscum HA. He did, however, give intent to lynch desmond at the end, although that was after desmond did stupid confusing things. Keyser was basically absent D2, so I don't think it's particular worthwhile to consider he actions regarding the mislynch.

As for the people on the lynch:

I'm pretty sure that Jake is town. I don't think that scum would have been so against a particular lynch all day only to hammer when someone else (Tyler) had already given intent. I mean, I already thought that Jake was town, but this sort of mentally confirms it.

I know I'm town.

Robert expressed interesting in hammering zakk after he (zakk) requested replacement. Jumped on the wagon after Tyler moved over to xyzzy. He hadn't really been scumreading zakk prior to zakk's replacement request. Overall: still have hangups about this slot.

There is no funniness involving tool's vote on zakk, at least none that I see. Town

xyzzy is still probably scum. Parks a vote on zakk fairly early on, but never really said all that much on any of the residents of that slot.

Dunn's strong lust for the f/z/d lynch for virtually all of D2 makes me pretty comfortable that he's town. I don't feel that scum under reasonable suspicion would push so hard on a weak slot's lynch.

So that leaves tool/jake/dunn as town
Mixed on Bins/Tyler/Creature/Robert
Xyzzy still probably scum

VOTE: xyzzy

[Jaack]

there's a lot I dislike regarding the circumstances surrounding Jake's hammer yesterday; it felt really abrupt when there should've been more discussion leading up to it.

What was there to discuss? I mean, the site downtime didn't change who was scum or not. Five players were on the wagon, a sixth (Tyler) had given intent. Jake makes seven. That's about as much consensus as you're gonna get for a lynch. I mean, desmond literally conceded in the second-to-last post prior to the site's vacation.

What was going to get discussed that Jake deprived us of?

[Jaack]

And your results?

[Jaack]

Oh boy this is fun. But I want to see more results from people.

[Jaack]

Well I guess Robert is megatown and I was megawrong.

Pedit: lolololol

[Jaack]

@mod-was godfather blacklisted for thus game

I'm pretty sure Jake is right but it's worth a check.

I'm also leaning towards Jake as the real cop, primarily because his d2 inspect makes sense whole dunn's is weird and poorly claimed.

UNVOTE:

Pedit-dunn looks to be scumflailing. Only way a his fake claim could work is if Jake survives longer.

Pedit2-are you macho jake?

[Jaack]

Are you serious

Why would I fake claim cop with two innos as mafia

I'm real cop, jake is doing some weird gambit thing right now and doesn't actually expect me to get lynched

jaack I ask you again - are you really scum reading me?

You didn't fake claim cop with two innos. You fake claimed cop with one inno and didn't claim the other until you had been cc'd

[Jaack]

@dunn - I was townreading you. I was also townreading jake. And he doesn't have a fake claim (your vt claim), and his cop claim was done a lot better.

[Jaack]

VOTE: dunn

[Jaack]

I do have to note that the group think in targeting is pretty funny.

[Jaack]

Zach kill also makes more sense for dunnscum. Yeah, I'm pretty sure about this now.

[Jaack]

okay but we've established that there can't be a godfather right?

I asked zulfy for confirmation if gf is blacklisted for this game or not. I don't think it is, but it'll be confirmed either way.

[Jaack]

Date on zulfy's in is January 15 for those too lazy to check.

And while dunn's scum gambit is ridiculous, his claimed town gambit is x10 more ridiculous

[Jaack]

It's still even possible that I drew the mafia roleblock somehow. In which case jaack jumping on me asking for my reads then instantly becoming suspicious looks REALLY BAD (as he'd KNOW I'm not the real cop)

1. I never asked you for reads. I asked you for results. Which is pretty normal to ask a claimed cop for.

2. Where are you getting the rb stuff from? Are you telling us all y'all have a roleblocker? Thanks!

[Jaack]

And while dunn's scum gambit is ridiculous, his claimed town gambit is x10 more ridiculous

how so?

What was that fakeclaim going to accomplish? Like nothing? And he didn't drop it immediatelt after Jake claimed . Only after Jake (and I to an extent) did not believe his claim.

[Jaack]

What was that fakeclaim going to accomplish? Like nothing? And he didn't drop it immediatelt after Jake claimed . Only after Jake (and I to an extent) did not believe his claim.

also why does him not dropping it immediately give it more credence to being a fakeclaim and not a gambit?

If his gambit was really what he described, then as soon as Jake cc'd he should have backed off of the gambit. Once Jake cc'd, his gambit had failed. One of them was getting lynched.

But dunn continued with the gambit, which only served to cause more confusion about what was going on. Why would he claim an inno on Jake? He had no confirmation that Jake was, in fact, innocent.

Like, I have no clue what else to say. I'm stunned that people are buying this gambit junk.

[Jaack]

Why would he claim an inno on Jake? He had no confirmation that Jake was, in fact, innocent.

...

I see you haven't read my post after all

YOU HAD NO CONFIRMATION THAT JAKE WAS COP. YOU HAD NO CONFIRMATION HE TARGETED YOU.

For your gambit to work, both your guesses would have to be correct AND Jake would have had to play along with it. That's a lot of work to accomplish what? Get Jake another investigation? Maybe? What if he gets pressure for his quickhammer and gets pushed to L-1? Would anyone buy his claim then? This gambit has like 10 billion holes at if successful would accomplish nearly nothing.

I did a 180 on my read on you because Jake cc'd. You tend to do that when someone gets confirmed as scum.

I can't believe I am getting scumread for thinking a ridiculous gambit is ridiculous.

[Jaack]

For your gambit to work, both your guesses would have to be correct

Don't look down on me. I claimed because I was confident in my "guesses".

But why the gambit at all? Like this makes absolutely no sense.

Let's pretend you are actually town and had correctly predicted that Jake was cop and had an inno on you.

If you don't gambit here are the possibilities:

1. Jake claims with two innocents. We have 3/9 confirmed townies and have 2 mislynches to work with. That's a pretty good situation.
2. Jake doesn't claim, and gets nightkilled. His inno on Robert would have been obvious, and his likely about face on his read on you would make that inno also obvious. This is the worst case scenario and we still go into D4 with two confirmed innos. Neither of you would have been lynched, because Jake would have claimed if either of you got close. This is a slightly less good situation than no. 1, but still pretty good.
3. Jake doesn't claim and either you or Robert get NKed. Jake gets one more inspection, and we either have 3/7 confirmed town, or 2 confirmed town and a confirmed scum. This scenario is what you would have been trying to accomplish if you were actually telling the truth about your gambit.
4. Jake doesn't claim and all his clears make it to D4. That would be 4/7 confirmed town, which is an insta-win, or 3/7 confirmed town with 1 confirmed scum, which is also an insta-win.

You're hypothetical gambit may have made scenario 3 more likely but it decreased the chance at scenario 4, the best case scenario. It was a bad gambit no matter what.

[Jaack]

Like seriously, why am I being scumread for not believing this insanity.

[Jaack]

and even if he doesn't - he knows that the cop stomps him out in a 1v1 for being the CC to him

trading here makes no sense

It makes more sense than his claimed gambit, that's for sure.

[Jaack]

Also, his lack of a N2 result claim in his original claim post allows him to adjust those result to what he felt would be most valuable.

[Jaack]

Also, his lack of a N2 result claim in his original claim post allows him to adjust those result to what he felt would be most valuable.

You're still refusing to reference that I knew jake was cop anyway

Because you claim to know that until after jake cc'd you. Yes, I've seen your references and I'm not convinced.

As for not going after you Tyler, its because I have one confirmed scum in my eyes (Dunn) and both you and Bins have been scumreading me for not buying dunn's junk, so I have no clue which of you is scum (I'm still under the assumption we have 3 scum).

It's not worth my time to bother with possible scum when I have a confirmed one I need to get lynched.

[Jaack]

It makes more sense than his claimed gambit, that's for sure.

what's his scum motive

Outing the Cop. It's a bad motive, but its a far better motive than whatever dunn is claiming his motive behind this supposed gambit is.

[Jaack]

It's not worth my time to bother with possible scum when I have a confirmed one I need to get lynched.

i think what you mean to say is why waste your time building a narrative based on associations that you know you're gonna have to abandon eventually anyway

things like this just don't ever come from a town mindset - if you're that confident dunn's scum, use your time to look for partners, is what I'd expect

you notably aren't making an effort to do that

I'm not making an effort to do that right now because I still have to convince you all that dunn is scum. If I get my preferred lynch, I'm all but ensured to live to D4 (Jake is going to be the NK). I can focus on associatives then. Not going to put the cart before the horse. If you all wanna, you know, lynch the scum, then we can look for associatives.

[Jaack]

Why would bins be the nk? Voyeur is a weak roll to begin with and its especially weak when most of the PRs are outed. I mean, what's she gonna do, tell us that Jake was killed?

I still have no clue why you are insisting on there being a RBer oh wait, its because you're scum doing scum things.

[Jaack]

The Voyeur is an informative role that can target a player at night and learn what was done to them that night (protection, investigation, etc), but not who did it.

Bins targeted Robert n1, learned that someone investigated them.

Bins targeted you n2, learned that someone investigated you (dunn).

Bins targets Jake n3, learns that someone killed him.

Super big threat to scum that role is at this point.

Hopefully tool and Robert would rather lynch scum than believe tales of silly gambits.

[Jaack]

Why is so impossible to believe that scumDunn would do something incredibly idiotic but it's so easy to believe that townDunn would do something incredibly idiotic?

I said it before, idiocy knows no alignment.

[Jaack]

But what matters is whether townDunn could see a reason to do it. And I think he could. It doesn't make sense to me, but other people do things that don't make sense to me all the time.

Okay, so you don't understand why he would do what he did if he is scum, but you also don't understand why he did what he did if he is town.

How does that make him town?

[Jaack]

You just highlighted random letters. I mean, I believe your claim, but that's not a worthwhile crumb at all.

[Jaack]

Yeah not feeling the creature lynch, even as a non-dunn option. Feels like yesterday where everyone coalesced around a slot with little content as sort of a path of least resistance.

I don't have much if an opinion on creature's posts as of yet, I do recall liking what Keyser was doing D1, and this feels pretty late to be lynching what has mostly been a lurk slot.

Going to have to read a little bit more into how the wagon shifted from me to creature to see what to make of it, but I definitely do not endorse this lynch.

[Jaack]

Uff sorry for my absense, but stuff happens.

Mostly skimmed through recent content, will probably look more at it later, but here are my general thoughts:

Jake/tof/bins mostly confirmed as town
Dunn still is scum

Most likely scumbuddy is xyzzy - xyzzy is both independently rather scummy and works fairly well as dunn's partner. This is mostly based on D2 stuff, where most people seemed open to lynching either xyzzy or floofzakkdesmond, but dunn stuck pretty hard on fzd. I can't in good conscience support any non-dunn lynch today, but xyzzy is my number 2 scum.

While I'm not exactly getting warmfuzzies from creature, the speed at which a wagon developed in him upon his replacement, despite that slot having very little content makes me lean town. I also liked keyser's d1 stuff, so that's another point for this slot.

Tyler and tool have been pretty similar both the past two days, with the exception being that tool has some level if suspicion of tyler, while the opposite does not seem to be true. Gut feel there is that tool is more likely to be town because of that. I also like tool's d3 better.

[Jaack]

I'm trying to figure out why you're talking about in 2064. You think I'm scum because I had a change of opinion? I changed my opinion because you fakeclaimed cop, along with myriad other revelations that affectwd my view of the game between the two posts you quotes.

I mean, you've fluctuated between scum and town reading me like 4 times and the past few pages, and I've hardly posted.

[Jaack]

You used the exact same reasoning as an argument in a polar opposite way

In the first post, I was attempting to analyze the aftermath of the Desmond lynch, which I thought reflected relatively well at the time.

Then you fakeclaimed. That lead me to believe my previous townread on you was quite incorrect. Which means I have to look back at your interactions from the mindset that you are scum. That makes you look at things differently.

[Jaack]

Probably because he's mafia and just made an excuse up after being called out on it

Being called out for

what

? Going into D3, I thought that you were town. I gave my reasoning for thinking that in 1620.

You fakeclaimed cop, which makes me think that you are scum.

With the knowledge that you are scum, I can look back at previous days and look for things I missed because I was thinking you were town when they came up. It would be lunacy for me both continue believing the stuff I had thought about you prior to your fakeclaim while scumreading your for it. It would be like looking for scum associates with a flipped townie.

[Jaack]

OK, but what did you change your mind about wrt the quotes Dunn pulled? That's what I don't understand.

I changed my mind that Dunn was town. I thought he was town in the first quote (1620). By 2062 I thought he was scum.

[Jaack]

OK, and what about your thoughts on Dunn's push on the fzd (desmond) slot D2? Has that changed?

I still don't think that it's a particularly good play for scum to push a town slot so hard, but dunn has shown that good play is not his forte.

I will say that I might have been giving too much weight to the pressure that dunn had received D2 when I put him into my town pile in 1620. Two of the three slots that had been scum reading him D2 (zach and fzd) are now dead, so he would not be anymore scumread D3 than any of the rest of us on the fzd lynch.

[Jaack]

Still want a logical explanation as to why Dunn didn't retract right away vs waiting until he was caught in a lie to retract. Anyone?

This is an important thing that people aside from Jake and I seem to be comfortable ignoring for some reason.

This is also where I'm going to note that for a good portion of d2 there were 3 now-confirmed townies (fzd, zach, and jake) voting for dunn, and no one with the possibility of scum being interested in that lynch.

With TOF seemingly taking interest in dunn (although he hasn't exactly endorsed a lynch yet), that makes 4 confirmed townies. From my perspective, the only player with some level of interest in lynching dunn who is NOT confirmed town is creature, whose slot was the first to take interest in confscum HA.

[Jaack]

dang the legendary trio of zakk/desmond, zach, and jake!

I wasn't commenting on their scumhunting skills. I was commenting on the fact that there was a wagon with three townies on it and no scum leapt at that opportunity. That certainly seems odd to me. Why wouldn't scum be interested in a wagon that was started by 3 townies? Especially when one of those townies (zakk) was an easy-to-lynch scapegoat.

As for 2152, you'really going to need more than a single question mark to get what you're talking about.

[Jaack]

Still want a logical explanation as to why Dunn didn't retract right away vs waiting until he was caught in a lie to retract. Anyone?

Oh, and you've still not addressed this.

[Jaack]

Most likely scumbuddy is xyzzy - xyzzy is both independently rather scummy and works fairly well as dunn's partner. This is mostly based on D2 stuff, where most people seemed open to lynching either xyzzy or floofzakkdesmond, but dunn stuck pretty hard on fzd.

I can't in good conscience support any non-dunn lynch today

, but xyzzy is my number 2 scum.

Literally in the post you quoted. Come on.

[Jaack]

^ thoughts on creature?

I actually just had a brainstorm related to this. Give me a second to type it up.

[Jaack]

Here is my train of thought. I'm going to work a lot in hypotheticals, but I think I've solved our dilemma to a reasonable extend.

1. I still think dunn is scum, but I recognize this is a disputed issue.

2. In the unlikely event dunn is, in fact, town, there is almost certainly scum attempting to lynch him.

3. Of the four living players to express interest in a Dunn lynch today, two (Jake and TOF) are conftown.

4. Therefore, if dunn is town, either creature or I (or both) must be scum.

5. There must be at least 1 scum in between dunn, creature, and I.

Further explination:
I find it extremely hard to believe that scum would take absolutely no interest in lynching a town player who fakeclaimed cop, particularly when the real cop is death tunneling that player.

Since we have two mislynches, we could lynch all three of dunn, creature, and I, and in the worst case scenario, we would end up in 3 player lylo, with those three players likely being tyler, tool, and xyzzy, as Jake and TOF are pretty obvious nks and bins, while technically unconfirmed, has pretty solid evidence preventing a possible lynch there.

Best case scenario is we lynch one of us three *coughdunncough* today and they flip scum.

So the question that remains is what order. I would obviously prefer that dunn be lynched today, and, should he flip town, creature tomorrow, as I personally know myself to be town. That being said, my alignment is uncorfmable, barring my own flip or should I somehow be inspected, which isn't going to happen.

From as neutral of a standpoint I can speak from, I still think dunn makes more sense to be lynched first, creature's flip would not really enlighten anyone as to my alignment and vice versa.

Also from the neutral perspective (which is to say I am pretending not to know my own alignment) it would make more sense to lynch me ahead of creature, purely due to this post. If (when) I flip town, it would be clear that I am not scum and that my plan here is town-motivated. If I were to flip scum (not gonna happen, but we're playing hypotheticals) then it would be clear that my plan here would have been scum motivated and thus should not be followed.

OK, leaving the hypotheticals, I STILL want a dunn lynch today and I would never endorse my own lynch ever, but I think my logic here is sound.

tl:dr version - there virtually has to be scum in <dunn, creaure, jaack>. If we lynch from that pool until we get scum, we will most likely win.

Okay, I have an early morning tomorrow so I am going to bed, but I will answer any and all questions should you make them available as soon as I can.

[Jaack]

Checking into to say that, while I may not be able to endorse an xyzzy lynch under the current circumstances, I think that it is an adequate enough lynch.

[Jaack]

Checking in once again to say that while I still cannot support the lynch of any player other than dunn, I continue to see the futility of arguing that today and I have no other major problems with a creature lynch.

Between creature and xyzzy, I believe xyzzy is probably more likely to be scum but that creature's flip will provide us with more info either way.

[Jaack]

"dunn is the only lynch ill support"

"but ill lynch creature or xy"

xy is more scummy but creature provides more "info"

like those don't feel like real thought processes and it makes me wonder which one of those two he's looking to bus if it comes down to it

I don't particularly want to lynch xyzzy or creature today - I want to lynch Dunn. But that's clearly not happening right not, so I'm offering my opinions on the other available lynches.

I've already given my reasons for thinking that xyzzy is the most scummy of the non-dunn players. I've also given my reasons as to why a Creature lynch would be more informationally helpful, particularly from my perspective, but I guess it would be more helpful for town as a whole.

While neither xyzzy nor creature is a lynch I want, I am not going to defend either of them because neither really gives me townvibes. (well, Keyser did D1, but Creature had been a whole lot of meh at best today) And I'm not going to spend anymore time today arguing a Dunn lynch because its just going to fall on deaf ears.

If I had to pick between them, it would probably be creature actually, because I think that the plan-ish think I outlined in 2164 would put us in pretty good shape. Looking at xyzzy, there aren't a whole lot of relational tells because pretty much everyone has had them in their general "I could lynch this" pool in either D2 or D3 and xyzzy has relatively little content that is easy to wrestle with for said relational tells.

But whatever, just lynch one so I can futilely try to convince you all that Dunn is scum D4 instead of D3.

[Jaack]

Ehhh, I don't think xyzzy is the last scum in light of creature's flip. Creature was willing to hammer xyzzy, and I don't think that makes much sense, particularly since the last scum is most likely a PR, since town had a cop and means of protection for said cop.

I guess that leaves tool or tyler. Will have to investigate some more.

[Jaack]

Uff, been swamped, but tomorrow is free. Will get to this then.

[Jaack]

Wasn't supposed to get called into work today at all - got called in anyway.

But I hate it when people stall with that type of junk, so here's at least a start.

I think its noteworthy that HA kind of grouped Keyser and tool together in 281, along with floof as a possible scum group. My initial thought is that HA wouldn't limit his mislynch options to just floof, although HA also calls bins and zach scum in the same post, so it wasn't overly limiting.

Only other noteworthy thing regarding what HA said about tool is that he disagreed with him about something Keyser related. Didn't strike me much as scum distancing, particularly since we've seen HA scum-distance/bus Keyser.

Seeing as HA bussed Keyser hard from the start and only described tool as scum in passing, my feeling is that tool doesn't make a whole lot of sense as scum there.

As for Keyser, he and tool talked some about theory and what not, but Keyser's contribution was not super substantial, particularly in how it (did not really) related to this game. He's exceedingly polite with tool (294 and 313), which contrasts with his takedowns of HA (and ira).

Keyser does mention tool in D2 (I forgot that Keyser had said anything content-y at all D2). The most noteworthy thing here comes in 976 where he lists "mild suspicion" of tool based on his interactions with HA. Well that's not really noteworthy in of itself, but it is noteworthy that Keyser does not discuss any of xyzzy, tyler, or myself (aka, the other people who are at this point, unconfirmed). In general it seems that Keyser was someone willing to bus and while bussing may seem more unlikely with only two scum compared to three, tool was on a list of 5 people, meaning Keyser could have maintained a slight scumread on tool for quite a while without ever having to push that lynch.

Creature slight townreads tool in the same breath as slightly townreading Tyler (1868), and that's basically it. Any assumption I could make about creature's motivation regarding tool would be equally true about Tyler, so this doesn't exactly give me much insight into which one between them is scum, but it does strengthen my belief that one of them is scum.

So from HA's stuff, I got mostly townfeels for tool but Keyser's stuff is more mixed, lean scum.

Plan to look at what HA/Keyser/creature said about Tyler next.

[Jaack]

The big question is how you're so oddly confident that xy isn't scum.

2264 is my primary reason at this point. The other thing is that if xyzzy and creature were the two scum yesterday, I feel like one of them would have pushed harder for my lynch since in such a scenario, I would be the only townie there would have been reasonable support to lynch (aside from Dunn I guess).

Basically creature-xyzzy doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

[Jaack]

Actually not.

I don't understand why people aside from maybe bins seem to think I'm scum but I'm not. I'm also not expecting anyone to say anything I can argue with so whatever.

I'm VT, but that's pretty obvious.

My first glance at Tyler in regards to HA and Keyser makes me lean towards him as the last scum.

Don't sleep on the possibility that TOF is actually a godfather. Robert's d1 claim was a good way to pull in a cop. Furthermore, TOF has seemed willing to lynch literally anyone both D3 and D4.

[Jaack]

I've already given my reasons why I don't think xyzzy is scum.

[Jaack]

Don't sleep on the possibility that TOF is actually a godfather.

Why would TOF be a godfather? This seems to be shoehorned in from thinkign I was godfather day 3, but there's actually no reasons for this claim

I gave reasons literally in the following sentence. Furthermore, I'm not accusing him of being GF, I'm just saying that in the future, look out for that possibility. I assumed that Bins was planning on hammering me (based on 2331) so I shared the various thoughts I had that I had not previously shared. TOF being GF was something that popped into my head N3 and it doesn't seem totally unreasonable. If TOF ends up in lylo its certainly something to consider, and I'm not really expecting to live past today, let alone D5, so I might as well mention it now.

[Jaack]

i mean playing into GF paranoia is one of scums very few plays to make right now so im not all too surprised

TOF has looked pretty town regardless - that's something you forgot to mention

jaack seems like a better player than to just spout paranoia for the sake of spouting it

I'm not trying to be paranoid or anything, and I wouldn't consider a TOF lynch until lylo. I just figured I was dead either way, so I might as well get it off my chest.

[Jaack]

I think robert was town regardless and the chances of them being gf who claimed

Macho town

(when the cop was macho as well) is really small

Macho town is a strange roll, as I said before. Robert's claim and the circumstances surrounding the claim is the type of stuff that draws a cop inspection, which is a boon for a hypothetical GF. But I will repeat, I'm not even leaning towards this being likely, just that its a possibility that popped into my head and I wanted to get in into the thread before I get lynched.

I'm pretty sure that no matter what I say or do, xyzzy and myself are going to be the lynches D4 and D5 in some order. I know myself to be town, and I think that xyzzy is town, which leads me to believe there will be a D6. Assuming the last scum doesn't trip all over themselves, lylo will likely consist of tool, tyler, and one of bins/dunn/TOF. I had assumed that TOF, if not the godfather, would be the one to die tonight, because he was the 'most' confirmed of anyone. If it was Bins or Dunn instead, I planned on bringing up the possibility of TOGF tomorrow, but since it looks like I'm not going to make it that far I might as well bring it up now.

[Jaack]

The one thing that still sticks out to me about keyser-tool d1 is how complementary keyser was towards tool (55 294 and 313 stick out at examples)

I mean, it makes sense for scum to try and get on a townies good side but they way Keyser related to tool is so completely opposite to how he related to HA, it feels almost manufactured.

Going to take a look at what tool was doing in regards to the creature lynch D3 to look for notables there.

[Jaack]

Hmmm okay, going to think laterally for a bit here.

After all the claim stuff from D3 happened, we were left in the following gamestate

Undisputed town:
Jake
TOF
Bins (kinda)

Unconfirmed People:
Tool
Tyler
xyzzy
Creature
Jaack

People of varying confirmation:
Dunn

Assuming no further PR shenanigans, scum had to pull of 3 mislynches. This means that scum either had to lynch Dunn + two unconfirmed or lynch three unconfirmed, which is to say, lynch all the unconfirmed town.

Creature and myself (if I were, in fact scum) would fall into the first group, of people who wanted to lynch dunn.

Which puts tool, tyler, and xyzzy into the 'lynch all the unconfirmed town' bunch.

Xyzzy hasn't really put much effort to lynching any of the other 3 of us until trying to lynch me today. There were a couple asides D3 about looking into tool and tyler, but nothing ever came of those.

Tyler did not take any interest towards toolscum until his past few posts, but seemed more than happy to lynch either xyzzy or myself D3 or D4.

D3, tool had some level of interest in all four other unconfirmed players, although his primary concern was xyzzy, followed by creature, followed by myself, followed by Tyler. Let's look at 2144 for moment.

Still scumreading xyzzy, and my read on Jaack has not changed. I'm not saying I'm scumreading Jaack, I'm saying he's a candidate for scum. Because he's in a pool of four players where I think two are scum. So even though I think it's probably xyzzy and Creature, I'm not discounting the possibility of Tyler and Jaack.

Or, more succinctly, one of {creature, jaack} and one of {xyzzy, tyler}.

At the time of this post he was voting creature, but quickly shifted to xyzzy in his next post.

So if tool is scum, his ideal lynch order based on this would have been xyzzy D3 (most lynchable town, paired with another town in Tyler) then Tyler D4, as the logical conclusion from what he had said in 2144 (I note this because tool has basically followed up on every post he's made this game. In fact, he's followed up on this post by considering me town as a result of creature's scum flip). At that point, his theory would have been blown to pieces but we'd be in lylo and he and creature would have two chances to lynch me.

Okay I'm not sure where I'm going with this but I wrote it so I'm going to keep going.

Wait now I remember. I found it notable that of xyzzy, tool, and tyler, the only one to be open to lynching both of the other two D3 was tool. I mean, he wasn't really endorsing a tyler lynch at all, but he was setting it up for the future, following an xyzzy townflip, which he would shortly be pushing.

Still want to look at Tyler some more, but I'm kind of coming around on scumtool.

[Jaack]

People of varying confirmation:
Dunn

Sorry, I'm not totally clear on your thoughts on Dunn right now, and this only further confuses it for me. Yesterday you pushed Dunn all day. How do you feel about Dunn now? And why do you mark Dunn as being of "variable confirmation" here?

I marked Dunn as that because at the time I was discussing (D3) dunn's confirmation status was, well, disputed.

As for my opinion on dunn now, he's probably town. A big part of my belief that dunn was scum was that almost all of the people who had pushed a dunn lynch throughout d2 and D3 were confirmed town (jake, zakk, zach, TOF). Creature flipping scum puts a bit of a damper on the idea that no scum wanted that lynch. Also, dunn leading the flip from xyzzy to creature at the end of D3 didn't feel like a buddy turn to me.

I still hate the fakeclaim and everything surrounding it, but the supporting evidence is weaker after the creature lynch.

Wait now I remember.

When did you first start researching this/thinking that I might be scum?[/quote]

Going into today, you and Tyler were my top two scum candidates. My plan was to look at what the confscum said about both you and tyler, then looking at what you and Tyler said about confscum, with 2303 being the first part of that analysis.

Then I almost got lynched, which took my attention away, and then Tyler was all like 'let's talk about tool' so I figured I'd do that and then go to the Tyler part of my analysis. After that I'll be able to make my decision on which of you is scum.

I found it notable that of xyzzy, tool, and tyler, the only one to be open to lynching both of the other two D3 was tool. I mean, he wasn't really endorsing a tyler lynch at all, but he was setting it up for the future, following an xyzzy townflip, which he would shortly be pushing.

So why do you think it's more likely that scum (me, in this case) would keep options open on a player they weren't planning on lynching that day (tyler), as opposed to scum (tyler, in this case) just pushing between an already broad pool of choices, especially when their scummy-looking partner was in play (creature), and waiting until further down the line to start pushing the other player (tool)?[/quote]

As I said before, I haven't looked at Tyler's stuff with a fresh eye yet, so I'll get back to it.

My main point was that you've been very thorough with following up on everything, and, if you are scum, you laid out a pretty strong path to victory for yourself.

[Jaack]

Oookay, time to talk about Tyler, specifically, what scum said about Tyler.

HA talks about Tyler exactly one time, in his pitiful reads post 281. Weak town read, with some minor, pretty useless logic. HA's three townreads in this post are xyzzy, Tyler, and myself. He also has floating townreads of ira and dunn from before. I guess it's kind of noteworthy that HA mostly townreads players under some level of pressure in the early parts of the game (dunn, ira, myself, and xyzzy), with Tyler the universal townread being the one that sticks out.

So Keyser and Tyler talk between themselves quite a bit about various early game stuff (xyzzy, me and Robert). Nothing really strikes me as that notable until post 206. In the latter half of that post, Keyser sort of/kind of/almost insinuates that he scumreads Tyler without actually saying it. Here is the relevant section:

In other news,

re-reading gave me a townlean on Tyler.

Not entirely for the way he's playing

, though he is doing work (a surface-level towny-looking thing), but more the way that people started townreading him almost in kind of snowball fashion. It's striking me as the kind of thing where town say he looks town, impressionable town agree and scum hop onto the townreading wagon in an effort to have genuine-looking reads.

This is an interesting way/reason for town-leaning Tyler the Creator [based on the nature of him being mass-town-read]. I kind of switch off to the popular town/scum reads on D1. Have you found this observation-method accurate in previous games?

To paraphrase:
-Tyler is universally townread
-Keyser tends to oppose popular D1 reads

It's really weak, but I can kind of see this as scumbuddy behavior, but at the same time, it could also be scumKeyser trying to cast doubt on a universal townread.

That is all Keyser really has to say about Tyler - he never offers a tangible read on Tyler or anything
As I had mentioned before, Creature's reads on Tyler and Tool are literally identical. Creature does kind of defend his reads when Tyler calls him out for their mediocrity, but that's about it from this slot.

So overall, Keyser bussed HA into the ground, buddied up to tool, and mostly ignored Tyler. I am not sure at all what to make of this. Right now I wish we had more scumposting, because like 90% of confirmed scumposts come from the first half of D1.

As for Tyler, there are a few things I find interesting from the scumposts, but it just isn't very much to make a decision on.

Next up is to look at Tyler's posts about the scum.

[Jaack]

Are you voting me because you're bored of this game, or do you have real reasons?

[Jaack]

Who should I be voting?

I still haven't decided between tool and Tyler yet, so I can tell you then.

I'd just like to know why you're interested in lynching me.

[Jaack]

I'm phone posting, so this won't be as detailed as I would like with references and all that jazz, but might as well get my thoughts out there.

Two things stood out from Tyler's iso:

1. He said multiple times that he didn't think that Keyser was bussing ha. I don't recall this being a primary point of discussion d2 (which is when I think when Tyler was talking about it)

2. He had some level of hesitance in lynching both HA and creature.
- He was the only person to go along with my Robert plan D1 to some extend
- While he did end up on the final creature vote, his preference seemed to be xyzzy or I.

On the one hand these feel a little to blatant of scum tells to me, particularly for a player who I think has been pretty strong either way.

On the other hand there is some fishyness there.

Hmmmm....

[Jaack]

@tool-did you have any thoughts on my participation in the growing suspicion of you?

I actually kind of liked your last post aside from the odd lack of me in it (at least in terms of things I said as opposed to things said about me)

[Jaack]

Now for stuff that's happened today

Unconfirmed people are jaack, xyzzy, tool, tyler.

Xyzzy has been open to lynching me or tool but not tyler
I've been open to lynching tool or tyler but not xyzzy
Tool's primary concern has been xyzzy
Tyler has seemed to be open to anyone.

Since I know I'm town, I can split the odds of everyone else being scum to 1/3. (I have opinions on who is more likely to be scum, but for ease of argument I'm simplifying it)

2/3 chance scum wanted to lynch me - 1/3 chance they don't
2/3 chance scum wanted to lynch tool - 1/3 chance tool is scum
2/3 chance scum wanted to lynch xyzzy - 1/3 chance xyzzy is scum
0/3 chance scum wanted to lynch tyler 1/3 chance Tyler is scum

The lack if confirmed town interest in lynching tool gives me so issues with that lynch
Tool also gets a few townpoints for not wanting to lynch me despite the conftown interest in that.

Lack of interest in lynching Tyler seems notable, but I can make arguments either way there. Lack of conftown interest in such a lynch makes things murky.

Uff, I've been thinking that circumstances have made xyzzy look town but their recent turn on to tool combined with the bad math (for townxyzzy) has put quite a bit of doubt into my mind on that read.

[Jaack]

Oh, forgot actual opinions.

Math says scum - xyzzy - tyler - tool - town

None of my feelings on any of them right now is enough for me to alter my opinions.

I want to think about how bad a town flip of each would be before voting, but I'm coming around to a decision I think

Pedit - makes sense tool. Twas what I thought but good to get confirmation.

[Jaack]

Utility of a Tyler town flip would totally depend on how such a wagon developed since I'm the only one with interest in it right now

Tool townflip would likely mean that xyzzy is scum. Xyzzy has gone for what was at the time the easiest lynch of the lynch pool d4 (me early, tool late)

Xyzzy townflip would likely lean me towards tylerscum, because I can kind of see him as scum pushing tool in hopes it gets ignored and town gives him a free mislynch on either xyzzy or I. Tools play today, at least before tylers case on him has not struck me as someone overly concerned with d5, so it could just be conviction (this does contrast with previous days for tool as well)

This is not where I expected my look into Tyler to go, but this feels most right.

Pedit-was going to vote xyzzy, but just gonna do a vote count to confirm I'm not quickhammering.

[Jaack]

Okay, last vc had just tool on xyzzywagon, he's since united and revoked and Dunn voted xyzzywagon just now so it's L-2.

VOTE: xyzzy

And now it's L-1

[Jaack]

Oh I guess if forgot this part of my analysis

Conftown interest in various lynches:
Xyzzy-a lot
Me-a lot but not as much as Xyzzy
Tool-a wee bit
Tyler-a little less than tool

[Jaack]

Utility of a Tyler town flip would totally depend on how such a wagon developed since I'm the only one with interest in it right now

this line seems kinda fake because how often have you gotten anything fruitful from "wagon development" when there's probably 1 scum left jaack?

Basically what I would have looked for is how tool and xyzzy interacted with the hypothetical wagon.

The primary reason I talked myself into an xyzzy vote was the way they reacted to the tool push D4. Looked survivalistic and opportunistic to me. I was wrong, obviously, that it came to scum, but it looked strange.

@ircher - both Dunn and your slot were pretty much conftown yesterday, and both had me high on their scumlist

It's actually kind of annoying because I like nk analysis, but the n1 and n3 nks were super obvious so there's literally nothing to look for there.

N2 nk was surprising because I though Zach was relatively lynchable, but I guess scum didn't see him as particularly persuadable.

As for n4 - Dunn and tof had pretty similar opinions that scum was between xyzzy and I, and that in the event we were both town, then tool was slightly scummier than tyler.

Bins meanwhile was relatively open to any lynch of the unconfirmed, or at least, more open to a Tyler or tool lynch than dunn/tof.

So I get why bins is alive, but there's no telling why scum went for dunn over tof. So nk analysis has been pretty useless.

As far as who's scum between Tyler and tool, I was pretty sure that it was Tyler after xyzzy flipped, mainly because he seemed to be open to lynching any of tool/xyzzy/myself d4, but after thinking it through, I think I've swung back over to the toolscum side.

I think that tyler's push on tool yesterday would have been to risky for scum to try. If tyler were scum, he could have just ridden the inevitable lynched on xyzzy and myself into 3p lylo, where he would get pitted 1v1 versus tool.

Trying to lynch tool d4 was the hardest path tyler could have taken (I guess aside from a tof lynch or something dumb). Tool had also been mostly an ally up to that point, so it seems odd for scum to break that peace.

VOTE: toolenduso

But I can see I'm pretty dead today anyway, so this is mostly for posterity.

[Jaack]

4) The N4 Night kill also suggests Jaack as scum

Why? Why would I specifically nk Dunn over your slot?

Also, if (when) I flip town, who should be lynched, Tyler or tool?

[Jaack]

1) It's all 1 huge WIFOM kill anyway
2) Both Dunn and my slot articulated scumreads on you, but you thought my slot would've been easier to manipulate.

If your town (which prob. isn't the case), then I'd prob. say Tool, but not definite there. Besides, I'm likely not going to be the one choosing anyway.

Ehh, fair enough.

@Bins, tell me your thoughts on Tyler and tool, since it looks like you get to decide who wins this game (sorry)

[Jaack]

I would argue against my lynch, but I just sat in three hours of traffic in 115 degree weather in the middle if nowhere, so it'll have to wait for tomorrow, because I lack the energy at the moment.

[Jaack]

Okay, let's get started

Just because it violates the whole ethos of the last remaining scum who has to stay alive in order to win. So I thought about it a little more while out camping, and I realized it actually makes sense for scumJaack. Especially in the context of the last day phase, where Jaack originally was pushing for either me or Tyler to be the day's lynch instead of xyzzy. In this situation scumJaack has very few options, and needs to pursue those options in the least scummy-looking way possible. So he deliberately goes the exact opposite way scum would go (xyzzy was the easy lynch, so Jaack insists that it isn't xyzzy). He gets an assist when Tyler brings out a case against me, but he hung back without voting me to see what other players would do. Xyzzy comes out against me, and voila -- Jaack has an excuse to go after xyzzy

and

enough town players to get the mislynch through.

I'm sorry, but this is totally wifom. I must be scum because I'm acting exactly opposite how scum would act.

Furthermore, at the time of my vote on xyzzy, both you and xyzzy had equal number of votes on them, and we were close to deadline. Why would I, as scum, swing the lynch towards the easier to lynch player in xyzzy. There was more unconfirmed room to hide in the tool wagon (which I imagine Dunn or bins would have hammered on at deadline with no lynch being the only other option) and xyzzy would have been far easier to lynch today than you.

[Jaack]

Spoiler: Zachstral kill

This kill was a little surprising. I can only imagine that scum didn't suspect Jake as the cop, or Bins as the voyeur. I also suppose they probably thought there was still room for the Robertslot (later TOF) to be lynched, and so they didn't want to eliminate that slot.

That actually points toward scumJaack as well -- Jaack kept pushing for Robert after Robert's claim, and then continued the push into D2.

Tyler was one of the people who voted Rob after Rob's claim, but the difference is that Tyler didn't keep pushing it. Tyler said, I think 200 posts or so before Zachstral's NK, that he was warming up to the idea of Robert being town (here).

On who might have suspected that Jake was an investigative, I don't see anything in Tyler's ISO (post-Jake's claim) to indicate that he caught on about Jake. Don't see any indication of that in Jaack's ISO either. So nothing to go on there.

Zachstral's reads are a little harder to look at as evidence for why scum would want to kill him. Zachstral made sarcastic votes, joked a lot and generally bounced around the game unpredictably. His last few posts showed he was townreading the Desmond slot (previously zakk and floof, here) and that he was on board with a lynch of either Dunn or xyzzy (here). Both have now flipped town. I went back a ways in the Zachstral ISO (not all the way through) and didn't see much clear indication of what his reads were other than that.

Lean Jaack on this one too, just because the Zachstral kill makes a little more sense if you think about it in terms of somebody who wanted to keep Robert alive.

This is a real reach.

If I were scum and really wanted to lynch robert, than I would have killed jake n2, since he was much more anti Robert lynch than anyone else d2.

Furthermore, I didn't push Robert at all going into d3, I pushed xyzzy in my opening post.

While I will admit that nothing about the Zach nk clears me or makes me look particularly more townish, the reasons you give for connecting me to it are non-existent.

Need to take a break, but will cover itches vca when I get back

[Jaack]

Some things:

1) For almost all of D4, the Jaack wagon was composed of conf town with both Dunn and Xy on it til the last VC where Dunn compromised on Xy
2) The fact Dun got nk'd is another tell-tale sign. Esp. since there's 2 other conf town.
3) Jaack never voting until the end of D4 where he seems to got on the Xyzzy wagon right before the lynch. I wonder why.....
4) Jack stayed put on the Dunn counterwagon to Creature D3. Granted, Jake was on the wagon too, but so was creature who was scum. Not to mention the wagon existed all of D3.
5) Jaack was on the D2 ML wagon.....

1 and 3 are fair takes from vca and I have nothing to argue with there
2 - I've addressed this (I think) but no matter who the nk n4 was going to be, I was their top suspect.
4 - (I dont know if youve read the whole thread so background) Dunn fakeclaimed cop d3 before Jake cc'd with an inno on dunn. Both Jake and I assumed gf while everyone else mostly believed dunn was clear.

A second contributing factor to my support for a dunn lynch was that all three of his wagoners on d2 were confirmed town at the time. When creature flipped scum, that diminished that factor in my mind, which made mean lean against the gf factor.

5 - this is accurate of tool as well, and whole Tyler was not on the final lynch, he had started the initial drive on that slot, and had given intent to hammer before Jake beat him to the punch.

With the exception of the craziness that was d3, tool and I have been on pretty similar wagons this entire game.

This admittedly doesn't feel like much of a defense as opposed to a case that tool is scum, but based on his posts today, I'm pretty convinced he is and would like to push the lylo players in that direction.

Pedit-or maybe we can lynch him today and win.

[Jaack]

I'm sorry, but this is totally wifom. I must be scum because I'm acting exactly opposite how scum would act.

If I'm going to speculate about your intentions, some of it is going to end up being "but would he really do that as scum, or would he not do it because he would know that I would know he would do it as scum, so then he would do it because he'd know he'd be safe," etc, etc. It's actually kind of inevitable, and so you have to draw the line somewhere.

I try to draw that line by asking whether there's any other evidence to support it. In this case, there is.

I draw the line when you start saying "scum wouldn't normally do this, but that's what the scum want you to think!"

It looks like you are trying to convince yourself that I am scum because you already know I'm not.

Why would I, as scum

As soon as I see somebody say this, I start getting paranoid that they had this explanation ready at the time of the action. But I'll bite.

The reason you'd go for one of Tyler or me over xyzzy is because you have to think about the endgame and not just what's in front of you. Xyzzy was what was in front of you.

I totally understand why someone would be concerned with me talking about what I would have done if I were scum, but you brought up my non-existent scum motives in the first place. How else can I explain your wrongness.

Anyway, you were an equally available lynch at the time. Had I voted for you, with TOF MIA, there likely would not have been enough support for an xyzzy lynch.

Dunn kill still points your way imo.

Every possible nk would 'point my way' because all the conftown had me as their most likely living candidate.

[Jaack]

Hooray for town wins

Horry for being right in the wee hours of D1 (despite being wrong all after that)

Hooray for Tyler being goodly town and self iso-ing

Hooray bins for not only making up her mind, but also doing so correctly