Mini Normal 1775 END!

[mhsmith0]

Lowell, give us the Dier case. You're representing you're sure about Dier, so give us the case. Not "it's PoE", but an actual case. So give us the case for Dier as mafia and for you as town. If there's something important we're missing, just tell us what it is. If it's obvious to you, at the least it's not obvious to me.

[Dierfire]

I want to contribute but feel that I have nothing further to say at this time.

[heuristically_alone]

Gah these vote charts are stupid.

I still don't see Riabi as scum. Looking back at the Sakura/Boon interaction, I just don't see them both as scum. That's some awfully early, awfully aggressive bussing if that's the case. smith is too hapless to be scum. toasty and huer, I forget why, but I have them as town for some reason. That leaves dier.

Why is it stupid to give evaluations to these vote charts? Mhsmith is trying to take advantage of the slow speed of the game and post more research. When town win, I'm giving most credit to mhsmith.

We have been sitting on this for days. Can somebody just hammer Lowell so the day can end (RIABI TOASTY)? Lowell is going down today no matter what. Little sence in waiting for the deadline. Or Lowell can you just self hammer? If you're town we'll catch scum tomorrow and you'll still win.

[Dierfire]

I think that it's generally bad form to ask players to contribute to their own lynches.

[mhsmith0]

Very bad form. If Lowell was mafia with teammates left, self-hammering like Garmr did might make sense. If he's the last one, then he simply won't. People have to play to their win con, even when they're the underdog.

PS If Lowell is town then he DEFINITELY shouldn't self-hammer. Especially if he doens't think Riabi makes sense as the last mafia. If he's town, he should convince us that he's town, that Riabi is town, and that Dier is the last mafia. I feel like this is a hard sell... but I certainly could be wrong.

[Lowell]

Thanks, coach.

[Lowell]

also, heur is very town. heur, smith, stick together.

[mhsmith0]

Toasty/Sakura/Almost/Garmr/Lowell were on my wagon. I'll bet all 3 scum were there. That was the most opportunistic wagon I have ever seen. Abused my freak out as nonsensical, which maybe it was, but opportunistic nonetheless.

I actually believe Garmr's vote was the most opportunistic, so I want to say scum is
Sakura/Garmr/Toasty.
I can see Almost being frustrating town, and I've been town reading Lowell. This makes sense to me.

Soon after, CT moves to Garmr, Lowell moves to Garmr, A50 unvotes, Dier pushes against Garmr in 1020.

and on the flip side, Sakura re-ups the pressure, and Garmr is pressuring too. and texcat is doubting the claim. and TT doubtcasts Boon's claim.

Boon, join me on garmr lynch then.
VOTE: Garmr

Boon then signals being OK with it without voting, A50 unvotes, Lowell votes Garmr, and then, with the momentum shifting to Garmr...

Boon, join me on garmr lynch then.
VOTE: Garmr

Yeah, I'm okay with that.

@Sakura - what exactly are your thoughts on Garmr?

UNVOTE:

VOTE: garmr

It is true that I'm shamelessly sheeping here. But I want a lynch and am bored, and I never miss a chance too look scummy for some reason. Come to think of it I remember playing a game with garmr recently in which he was pretty helpful and good... in this game I've forgotten he's here entirely. So that's a bad sign.

Boon is lying tho

I'm on page 32, and I think that I'll finish tomorrow. A few things:

I haven't seen anything that I disliked from Expedience but I told Sakura that I'd give an opinion so I'll do a read in ISO when I'm finished to get something more solid.
I'm having a difficult time reading the interactions between chilledtea and Garmr but they did not seem to be Town/Town interactions to me. If anything, I was suspecting Mafia/Mafia. If Boon's claim is being countered then probably this needs to sit for a bit and be examined later.
My read on Almost50 wavered a bit when I read 764 and 765 (the tone felt weird to me).

Anyway, I'll be more coherent tomorrow when I finish.

That is L-1, inb4 Expedience goes "OMG LOWELL IS SCUM FOR PUTTING BOONS AT L-1"

Nah, he's town.

VOTE: Garmr

and the thing is, it's only AFTER this point that Sakura really goes crazy nuts on Boon. ISO Sakura, and before 1012, Sakura is WAY more interested in lynching Expedience than Garmr. But from this point on (and at this point, remember that Garmr was in plausible danger), there's a HUGE back and forth that overwhelms the rest of the day. Was that "real"? Or was that "distract the board from lynching Garmr since Boon is already dead sooner or later as outed fake PR"? It could be the latter. It REALLY could be the latter.

Other fun stuff:
1)

Oh, damn. Garmr is bussing.

???
Vote Garmr then.

What.
Wouldn't the logical course of action if you think X is busing Y would be to vote the person with the largest wagon?

"Don't vote Garmr, vote Exp"

2) Triple ISO Garmr, Sakura, Riabi. They basically never talk to or about each other directly.

3) mutual discrediting of Exp who's pushing them both

Garmr (1): Expedience

Here are the lists provided by others. Everyone has their own suspects:

<snip>
Sakura, Sakaya, texcat (Expedience)
<snip>

Uh what.
Garmr is nowhere in this list yet Exp is voting him?

If boon is scum I could see expedience being boons partner with the way he is pushing for sakura's lynch.

So, yeah, it could be Riabi. Lowell then Riabi, or Riabi then Lowell. I'm no longer in the "it must be Lowell" camp. It totally could be Sakura/Riabi. If someone wants to sell me on anything else, I'll listen, but it's going to take a LOT of work to get me off of those two.

[heuristically_alone]

Do we only get 2 chances left to lynch or 3?

[mhsmith0]

@alone: with six players left, we have two lynches remaining, unless you've got a protect in you (which if true we DO NOT need to know). Also if you have a vig shot then we essentially have three lynches (and if you do, please just shoot whoever between lowell/riabi we don't lynch today).

PS if you have a jailkeep/roleblock shot, I'd suggest announcing it in advance of the night, so that your target is (presumably) cleared (I guess target could be a strongman, but that seems a bit OP for mafia given town PR's). If you have a doc shot or are BP, we simply don't need to know.

[mhsmith0]

At this point I am officially bored of this game and not much interested in re-reading or doing more analysis. If someone wants to make a case that I'm wrong about something, have at it. Otherwise, I can live with either a Lowell or Riabi lynch today, then lynching the other one tomorrow.

Thanks, coach.

You're welcome

also, heur is very town. heur, smith, stick together.

Thanks, coach

[mhsmith0]

FWIW, that vote by Lowell on Garmr at 1011 may be the most legitimate argument against Lowell being mafia that I can think of. Why would Lowell put his second buddy in danger when buddy #1 was already a dead man walking, and in a way that isn't going to give him much of any town credit? It's odd play for sure if they were buddies.

[mhsmith0]

@alone: Presuming it's Lowell or Riabi and we win, CT and Exp deserve a lot of credit for their work to nail Garmr, which was basically where things went to pieces for the wolves. A decent chunk of my Garmr case was just sheeping CT (and I was prepared to go back and mine Exp's work if needed as well). IMO town has worked reasonably well together, with only the Exp lynch sticking out as a big "whoops" moment.

Of course, if it's NOT Lowell or Riabi and we blow it, I guess I deserve a lot of the blame. *shrugs*

[mhsmith0]

UNVOTE:
The more I think on it, the sketchier the Sakura/Riabi slot looks. Plus I want the rest of the board to bother weighing in; it feels like I'm just talking to myself at this point.

Other notes
Day 3: Sakura soft-pushes Exp without bothering to be on the wagon, 1433
Day 4: Riabi soft-pushes the Lowell wagon over the Garmr without bothering to be on either, 1526, 1568 (not to mention role fishing at 1529).
Day 5: Riabi pushes Dier to L-1 for basically nothing, 1691

What's the town case on this slot again? Other than Sakura's hyper-aggressive push on Boon AFTER he fake-claimed and AFTER Garmr was in danger? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

[heuristically_alone]

If we're most sure it's not Dierfire, then does it really matter who we lynch today? I still feel more confident in the Lowell lynch. I'll do some re-reading and let you know how I feel about the Riabi. Anyhow, we know that if we're wrong today we're just lynching the other tomorrow, unless something crazy occurs tomorrow

[mhsmith0]

Yep. I kinda want to get it right today though. I'd also kinda like to see where people are with the riabi case before anyone comes in and hammers Lowell. I've put out pretty decent cases on both lowell and riabi, and I'd like to see where people truly are on the issues before I put up any kind of vote. Dier, toast, alone, what are your thoughts? Preferences for Lowell or riabi lynch? "Just lynch both and we win"?

[mhsmith0]

As of 1021, garmr was tied with boon and his wagon was gathering serious momentum, then ct went back to boon and Sakura and boon went hard at each other. Re-reading, it looks like very plausible scum theater, whereby Sakura and boon make sure that they can't be considered teammates while boon goes down, and everyone forgets about the garmr case.

Throw in Sakura and riabi basically doing NOTHING from their widespread town read position... Yeah, it really does look like a "bus then coast" model of behavior. I'm simply not willing to let riabi survive our two lynch shots. And I'm fine with lynching riabi first.

[mhsmith0]

Ps "I'm going down, better vote for my buddy" is like a super obvious model of mafia behavior that boon easily could have been doing.

[Dierfire]

That's a lot to read.

I can think of a few reasons that I was reading Sakura/Riabi as Town.
The seemingly paranoid reaction to the early wagon on Knightmare seemed to me like an unusual move for a Mafia player; at this point, one of those slots has to be Town (it's not clear to me why Sakura derails that wagon there if she is Mafia).
Sakura voting for Boon was not the only reason that I thought that she was unlikely to be partners with him; I also noted her specific false claim (which could potentially have gotten her lynched without clearing Boon--because, as you say, he could have been caught by his own false claim) and her reaction to me (she seemed to insist that I vote for her or Boon). I especially don't see it as necessary for her to derail a potential wagon on Garmr by setting up a showdown between her and Boon (at that point, with Garmr potentially compromised by a Roleblocker/Jailkeeper and Boon potentially countered by the same role, that would have been a lot of eggs in the same basket).

[mhsmith0]

@Dier: I know what will help you... more reading!

The thing here is, boon was already basically doomed because his claim was fake; it was only a matter of time before he went down. And the thing is, if the team was Boon/Garmr/Sakura, they were ALL under suspicion at that point. If that's the team, then Sakura prominently going nuts on boon, complete with fake-claim of vengeful, makes it look like Sakura can't be Boon's partner AND it completely draws attention away from the plausible Garmr wagon (to the point where we basically all pissed off onto Expedience on day 3, which IMO looking back was town's worst moment of the game). Also, remember that Sakura showed a LOT of confidence in her read that she KNEW that Boon was lying. Was that knowledge obvious to you? Was it super obvious re-reading it? Or was she accidentally slipping that she really did know that he was lying, because she was his teammate?

But where I really think the story falls apart is day 3 on. Double ISO Sakura and Riabi, and look at it from 1259 on. That's just incredibly passive behavior from a supposed obv!town who's likely a NK target. Now, this gets dampened a LOT by the fact that Sakura got very sick, but it's more than the low # of posts (which is certainly explainable by her health issues), it's the lack of aggression or scum-hunting in the posts she does make. A town attitude towards being a widely town-read slot is to basically want to go out guns blazing and draw a NK for your efforts (unless you're a PR, which that slot wasn't); Sakura basically did the opposite of this in her posts on day 3.

And then if you ISO Riabi alone, regardless of the prior read from Sakura, he's not doing much of anything either. Day 4 his posts show a pretty clear preference for a Lowell lynch over Garmr... but he's not actually on the Lowell wagon, and he's not putting in any real effort to get me (his vote) lynched (he does seemingly try and draw out a PR claim from alone, which isn't a good thing for obvious reasons). It's also interesting that he's fine with the idea it could be a Lowell-Garmr team (1578, 1584), but isn't voting either of them, and his only direct push on Garmr (1578) is to suggest that Garmr's defense against being buddies with Lowell (as opposed to simply a defense against being mafia) is invalid. The whole thing reads like he's trying to either set up Lowell for a day 4 mislynch (with his own hands clean, or maybe as the hammer if necessary), or prepare for a post-Garmr lynch world in which he can sell Lowell as Garmr's buddy.

Moreover, compare Riabi's day 4 position (pro Lowell lynch over Garmr if we have to pick one, and sure they could be buddies) with his day 5 position (happy to vote for Dier for basically whatever the "NK motive" might have happened to be). The whole thing reads like he's hoping for an easy day 5 ML and then can go hard at Lowell on day 6 as needed.

PS both exp and madonna called BS on sakura's early reaction at 124 and 137. I'll admit to not being an expert here on RVS behavior at all, but at the least I don't think her early behavior is cause for a meaningful town points in and of itself.

PPS I suppose it's also possible that I'm over-thinking this. But Riabi as the last partner fits the game state pretty reasonably well IMO. I think PoE (mech clear on me, non CC PR for alone, behavioral reads on Dier and especially toast) gets us to Riabi and Lowell barring any kind of actual case against anyone else, and my current gut is pointing a bit more Riabi than Lowell. I'll try and re-visit this tomorrow or Thursday when I have more time. I'm still curious if anyone has an ACTUAL case on anyone outside Riabi/Lowell. If not, I think we have our two targets for the win.

[mhsmith0]

Garmr and Sakura are scum chainsawing each other, Almost50 is town who doesn't know how to comprehend sarcasm. That's all there is to it.

All I'll say is, the rat with a hat has a point. They really were chainsawing for each a good amount this game. Sakuras "boon is outed mafia after fake claiming, so I'll go crazy hard at him to get town read and kill the garmr wagon" bit doesn't make up for it.

VOTE: Riabi

Let's end this thing before mylo.

[mhsmith0]

Ps ISO riabi. Just TRY and make a case that he's invested in town survival or finding mafia. He's trying to sneak in a dier mislynch before going hard on Lowell on d6. THAT is what he is up to. Lynch riabi, lynch Lowell if we somehow screwed it up, then pop bottles.

[ToastyToast]

To be honest mhs I've read maybe 25% of your posts. Not everyone writes as much as you (sorry if this sounds rude, I just don't think overanalyzing things gets us anywhere).

The fact that Riabi has said literally nothing in what feels like....the whole game is more troubling to me than anything Sakura did. But Sakura was equally involved in the Boonskiies lynch and I don't quite know how you leap to them being scumbuddies together--they were also a prime target of scum for a time during day phases.
I'd rather lynch Lowell first. All scum is going to do is kill off town reads, and that won't leave us better off with him around. I do agree that the lack of town power gives alone some town cred but I don't base my decisions on unnecessary set up speculation.

vote:Lowell

[ToastyToast]

Also random thing I noticed: garmr posted a reads list pretty early day one. Lowell was a primary scum read of his wheras both Sakura Hana and Boonskiies were town reads. Hard to say if scum would straight up town read all their scum buddies or try to distribute them somewhat.

[ToastyToast]

hmmmm....