Mini 515 - The Pine Barrens - Game Over!

[neko2086]

/confirm

[neko2086]

Vote: Bookitty

for being the first bloodthirsty scum to vote, and also for doing so under the guise of an adorable kitty cat!

[neko2086]

hrm, I think I'll

unvote

at this point. Bookitty's post was a joke, yeah yeah, Ryan maybe jumped the gun and such, but I wouldn't be too quick to start suspecting him either. I mean, I see people jumping to conclusions about people jumping to conclusions here, and it seems a bit hypocritical and reactionary and opportunistic to me.

Note: I'm not going to point fingers or jump to conclusions myself here. I don't intend to kill discussion either. Obviously suspicion is where it all starts. I just thought I'd point out how antsy a few people are getting here, and perhaps it's worth taking note.

[neko2086]

wow this just got really interesting all of a sudden. Before people start taking sides here, let's consider the possible scenarios:
1. Boggzie is innocent and ryan is mafia- ryan makes a silly mistake and backlashes with an omgus vote

2. Boggzie is scum and ryan is innocent- boggzie is fabricating evidence or misinterpreting a coincidental email (which I do think is entirely possible, boggzie)

3. Boggzie and ryan are both innocent- accusations are flaring up for no reason

4. Boggzie and ryan are both scum- ryan did pm Boggzie, and Boggzie is trying to create some mass confusion here. Remember, his accusation of ryan is on the basis that he is innocent and that the pm was an 'accident.' Well, perhaps it wasn't. Now, if ryan were ever to be lynched, Boggzie would seem to be in the clear. I don't really know if the mafia would be willing to kill themselves off so early in the game for this kind of tactic, but I'm somewhat new here, so please enlighten me whether I may be on to something or if this is crazy talk.

[neko2086]

So Bookitty, we shouldn't vote for you because we wouldn't learn anything about Boggzie and ryan? You unvote, yet you seem to be arguing that one of them should be lynched to shed some light on our situation here.

I'm just as confused as you now.

[neko2086]

I just had this thought. Boggzie says that he mus be innocent because of the risky move he's made. Well, sure, you're taking a risk if your town, but I wouldn't put it past mafia to make such a risky move, and here's why: mafia has backup. If all the mafia got in on the plot in the beginning, Boggzie would actually have less people to convince, making this move not nearly as risky as he's trying to make it out to be.

Currently, opie and mc are the only others voting for ryan, and I wouldn't say I automatically suspect them of being scum because the other scum wouldn't want to appear to be bandwaggoning too much, but they would still want to keep the suspicion on ryan and off of boggzie for the time being.

This may be a crap idea, but I think it's entirely possible.

[neko2086]

Uhm, I think others will agree with me when I say that you weren't being aggressive, and if anyone was being aggressive about anything, it was ryan and Boggzie, which brings me to a question I think a lot of us would like addressed...

what now, Boggzie?

[neko2086]

I'm surprised to hear that I've been lurking, but I guess I haven't spoken up as much as others.

Now, it's sounding to me so far as though people are going to let boggzie of the hook pretty easily, which is really surprising to me. Bookitty, primarily, suggested that she would be voting for boggzie if ryan turned up innocent ( i could find the quote but i'm lazy, if necessary i will). Now opie seems willing to let it go as an innocent mistake.

I made this suggestion before and I'd like to bring it up again... perhaps boggzie made the pm thing up (or did receive a pm and fabricated a story about what it contained) and had scumbuddies to get in on the act. It would be stupid for mafia to create a gigantic lie like that since the victim would turn up innocent and automatically shift suspicion upon themselves

unless

they convinced enough people that mafia would never do such an extreme thing.

I hope that made sense, but basically, I'm not ready to excuse boggzie's actions, and I'm unsettled by those that would.

[neko2086]

um, to say that ryan was hurt I think would be going a bit too far. He reacted badly, which was a bad move. If he'd have been rational at all, we might not have ever been in this situation

[neko2086]

hasdgfas seems pretty clean to me. He's the only one who consistently defended ryan even as early as Post 70. It would seem to me that scum would have had no interest in slowing down the ryan train wreck.

I just want to point out that the mafia probably won't want to agree with each other all the time. It would actually make sense to me if a mafia person were trying pushing against it, because this would make them look innocent, as you clearly do here. Maybe he is maybe he's not, and maybe, just maybe you both are scum and you're taking the opportunity to point out your scumbuddy's good deed.

I don't know that I necessarily believe this, but I'd just like to start getting some other discussion other than the pm issue, which is going nowhere except for WIFOM territory in my eyes.

[neko2086]

I've tried to think of a reason that SJ was killed, but I think that overanalyzing it might be playing to the mafia's advantage. It may have been because he seemed to demonstrate an ability to logically reason things out, which is more than can be said for some. In my opinion, it was probably just random, mostly since he was inclined to believe ryan was scum and it would strategically make sense to leave him in there and let people suspect him. So again, I don't know if his death is worth analyzing, although, if somebody sees something in his posts, please share.

[neko2086]

Bookitty:

Yes, that's right, in part. I know my alignment, so if you think I'm scum, then your reasoning is faulty. It looks like tunnel vision, and at this point, it seems a little forced to me.

Yes Bookitty, you do know your alignment, and that might be reasoning enough for you to suspect elias, but if that's the only reason you've got, I think it would be wise to keep it to yourself instead of posting it as if it's a valid argument for the rest of us to consider, since we don't know your alignment. You're doing yourself a great disservice right now, and you're not helping us, either.

Suspect elias all you want. Great. Now find a way to convince the rest of us other than "But I'm a townie"

[neko2086]

Thank you Has. I feel that I just made that point a few posts ago (207) as well, so I just have to wonder how closely Zackarum is actually paying attention to the posts.

That aside, he does have a point about Boggzie. Arguments against him are still in WIFOM territory, but let's not forget about him. I will say, however, that we don't have to waste all our time on him, Zackarum.

[neko2086]

Elias_the_thief maintained a consistant position from Day One to Day Two, while Zakarum having adopted the same positioned switches positions and makes accusations of four other players in the span of a day and a half [Post 156 to Post 183]

Throwing around a lot of suspicion seems suspicious itself.

I don't know. Being consistant is good, yes, but if taken too far it can seem suspicious (case in point-Boggzie). It is worth pointing out, though, that Zakarum isn't providing much analysis to back up his FOSs, but rather doing this sort of thing:

Great. No only is my scumdar competely off and a townie gets himself modkilled, but we lose an awesome townie. (Nice flavor, btw) This blows.

Oh, and thanks ryan. Thanks a bunch. Not only is a townie lynched, but we don't even get any vote histories to analyse.

If there is a consensus that I was acting inappropriately/too aggressively in pursuing someone who I thought was scummy, I'll ask to be replaced. I really don't want to ruin the fun for everyone else/break the game. Even if there is not a consensus, I'd like everybody to weigh in on maybe how I should have done that differently, if at all. I'm feeling guilty about the whole mess.

Seems very very scummy.

FOS: mcpaltp

No explanation for this fos.

[neko2086]

Just so everyone knows, I'll be at a conference this weekend, so I probably won't be able to post much, if at all.

In the meantime, I really really want to hear from ThAdmiral, and in hopes of getting him talking, I'll

vote: ThAdmiral

until he can explain himself and contribute something.

[neko2086]

Okedoke, I'm back. I'm going to ask ThAdmiral to please be more careful when using quotes, but I don't think he's purposely trying to cast suspicion anywhere. Rather, I was more surprised by Bookitty's reaction. It didn't take much at all for her to use that as an excuse to vote for him.

Seeing as how he's talking a bit now,

unvote: ThAdmiral

[neko2086]

If Boggzie is scum, he must be laughing his ass off right now, because nobody seems to care at all about what happened on day1. I do like having other things to discuss, and I did specifically prompt some other discussion, but when Boggzie starts making comments such as "frankly, anyone defending me right now, even to me, looks scummy" (and that is a direct quote), I just have to wonder if he's just getting comfortable with the thought that he can incriminate himself all he wants and nobody will vote for him. Let's face it people, he could say "no really, I'm scum" and a few people here would still let him go.

Boggzie, if you're town and you want to help us, do us a favor and for chrissakes defend yourself to keep yourself alive. If you don't I'll have to assume you're scum.

Do you want to help or not?

Vote: Boggzie

until you've convinced me otherwise.

[neko2086]

Elias and Hermit, are you still around?

[neko2086]

Boggzie, I would really like a response from you.

[neko2086]

First of all, I'm going to

unvote Boggzie

for now, assuming that he'll want to cooperate. Also, Admiral's point about mafia getting an easy lynch on the first day makes sense. IGMEOY Boggzie, but I feel like you're a waste of time (for now anyway).

Elias has asked that we look into Bookitty's lynchability, and so I did because frankly, she's caught the attention of more than a few. First I looked at this:

I also didn't like how bookitty said a town ryan would "clear my name", although I think this has already been gone over. Also your setting up of chain lynches ("

if ryan is town, i'm definately voting boggzie tomorrow

") has also been noted.

I never said this. You put it in quotes as if I did, but that's not true. I've put up the relevant quotes. So why imply that I said that by putting it in quotes? It's not even a good fabricated quote, considering that I definitely know how to spell definitely. Anyway, a quick reread of my posts will prove I NEVER said what you quoted me as saying.

unvote; vote ThAdmiral

My reaction to this was at the time, and still is, wow, that didn't take long for her to spring a vote on him. Yes, his use of quotes is questionable, but this is more or less an OMGUS vote since she didn't first let him explain himself at all.

Then this looked a bit strange:

I think Elias's reasoning is faulty, and a bit forced

Could you explain why? It seems to me that the main reason you' dont like my reasoning is that it is against you.

Yes, that's right, in part. I know my alignment, so if you think I'm scum, then your reasoning is faulty. It looks like tunnel vision, and at this point, it seems a little forced to me.

She never explained why his vote seemed forced to her, and I was never impressed by her I-know-I'm-innocent-so-you-must-be-wrong argument (not direct quoting you, don't kill me).

But then, I looked back at this:

I'm about to do something I never expected to do, which is place a vote on someone hoping that they are town. I see no way to clear my name otherwise.

unvote; vote ryan

which caused quite a commotion. But I just have to wonder, if she were scum, would she

really

do something that stupid? The same sort of question came up with Boggzie but I figured that seeing how much support he had, he could easily get away with that. I don't see that with Boo.

The next obvious question then, is, why is Elias so anxious to get Bookitty lynched? He's almost begging us to do it. Do I think he's scum, then? Well, I don't know yet. I can't find enough evidence for a FOS. Maybe the fact that he's getting anxious, but, there aren't that many votes on her. IGMEOY for now.

What really caught my attention while looking back was mcpaltp's role in the ryanhunt. First of all, it took him a mere 48 minutes and 3 posts after the revelation of the pm to launch a vote on ryan. Then, he does this:

If I was scum, I'd bus him.



Did he just say that? Oh snap! *joke* *joke* *seriously joke*

Please disregard, that was kind of dickish. Now I feel bad-- sorry Ryan

And immediately after:

Oh god, what have I done. I'm really really sorry, and if everyone thinks that was too mean I'll asked to be replaced. I'm not trying to be a jerk, I've just had a bad day and I'm kind of on edge.

And after ryan's death:

If there is a consensus that I was acting inappropriately/too aggressively in pursuing someone who I thought was scummy, I'll ask to be replaced. I really don't want to ruin the fun for everyone else/break the game. Even if there is not a consensus, I'd like everybody to weigh in on maybe how I should have done that differently, if at all. I'm feeling guilty about the whole mess.

Ok, so maybe he just feels bad, but maybe this is just a cop-out to avoid the suspicion that would fall upon him after having voted for ryan (which surprisingly hasn't really come up).

Then:

I quoted what I felt was the

spirit

of the first of your two highlighted posts.
And even though you later backtracked on this, the fact still remains that at one point you

were

attempting to set up a chain lynch.

The spirit?

I know I'm probably the last person to be tossing accusations around, but, uh - "the spirit"? I haven't played that many games, but I've been in enough to know you can't quote "the spirit" of a post. Either someone said it, or they didn't. Your "quiet time" and this worries me. And frankly, anyone defending me right now, even to me, looks scummy.

Considering how well the last time I thought boggzie's arguments were apt went, I don't know if I should say this, but,

I agree, here. I don't like the lurking combined with the whole misquoting thing. I put my vote on as an exploritory measure, and I think I'll keep it on pending more contributions from ThAdmiral.

OK, now you're sounding like you just want to go with the flow. Is that a stretch? Well...

Personally, I think that getting suicidal as town is obnoxious (see:ryan). I've also seen it used as a scum ploy on several occasions (appeal to emotions, etc.). I'll tell you one thing about it though.

It is annoying and not a little scummy. Hey Boggzie: if you are town, cut it out. We've already had one pointless townie death. Townies are better alive than dead.

If you are scum: Keep it up! I'll vote for you. "Emo" sacrificing for the town's sake just hurts us.

And for that matter, you have all of one vote on you. Why are you trying to be so distracting?

What the heck. I'm putting my vote on you after all. I'll decide weather or not to take it off after I see your responses.

##Unvote:ThAdmiral
##Vote: Boggzie

Oh yeah, Admiral. I'm still not very confortable with you either. If Boggzie wasn't pulling this crap, my vote would still be on you.

OK, I know I started this, but you seemed to like the opportunity to jump on it (while making it look like it was an afterthought).

I don't feel like I have enough for a vote on you yet, mcpaltp, but definitely a big

FOS

[neko2086]

Like, what advantage does scum have in being hypersensitive in offending people?

TheHermit actually pointed this out awhile back, but it is an appeal to emotion. If he can get sympathy, he can avoid suspicion for being so aggressive against ryan.

[neko2086]

I personally don't see the case against ThAdmiral very strong yet, and I'm not sure what to think of Zakarum yet. I need to hear from mcpaltp again before I'm ready to vote for him.

[neko2086]

I just want to hear what he's got to say, that's all. Why would I reveal what I'm expecting to hear beforehand? Wouldn't he just say what I want to hear then?

[neko2086]

to mcpaltp- I didn't really ask you any questions, but I've got a FOS on you (post 266), and I was just wondering if you had any comments.

I know it was long, but are you reading the posts? I don't know if not reading them is a scumtell, but it can't be helpful.

vote:mcpaltp

until I can be convinced otherwise

[neko2086]

First of all, I really don't think there's anything substantial in the 'who's been posting the least war' between opie and admiral. To me, it seems distracting and unhelpful.

To mcpaltp: I'm not suggesting that you and Boggzie were up to anything fishy together, if that's what you mean by verboten and oot. What I'm saying is that it looks to me like you were quick to go with the flow. This is my same argument for your voteswitching from admiral to boggzie. I'm getting the impression that you're trying to stay on everyone's good side by following their leads. Certainly, it is good and it is necessary to change votes, but I would think that one would want to use some discretion in doing so.

Now, I don't know, but maybe I'm interpreting both votes and FOSs as having more weight than they really carry. For me, if someone has an fos on me, I assume that I need to address it asap before they lay a vote on me, which to me, means they want me dead. I've used votes to attempt to prod lurkers before, but other than that I think I'm generally conservative with them. But hey, I'm still learning, so let me know if my reasoning is... well, unreasonable.

[neko2086]

Oh yeah, and about the mea culpa thing, I'm sorry to have brought that up again, but it just seemed way too convenient to be asking for a replacement to get out of any sort of suspicion. I wanted to see your reaction, and it was reasonable, so I'm willing to assume good will in that department for now, but your willingness to go with the flow still bothers me, and so for the time being, my vote stays.

[neko2086]

thank you everyone! Sorry I don't have anything amazing or profound to say concerning the game. I look forward to hearing from Zackarum concerning hasdfasdfasdfs post, but other than that, my vote stays and whatnot. I'm going to the bars now

[neko2086]

up. Are you saying that because Zakarum jumped on my lead, that that makes me scum too? Are you serious? Why on earth would mafia follow each other's lead? Zak could very well be scum yes, but that doesn't automatically make me scum.

Also, you conveniently left out this part of my post in 281: "Why would I reveal what I'm expecting to hear beforehand? Wouldn't he just say what I want to hear then?"
You never answered that, either, which I wasn't expecting you to, since it was more or less a rhetorical question, but I thought you would at least consider it. I guess not.

Oh, and I didn't vote on him just for his post in 282. I already had an FOS on him, and after giving him the chance to comment, and seeing that he didn't even notice I put an FOS on him, I went ahead and place my vote on him until I could be convinced to take it off. We have different opinions on how much weight an FOS has, but considering the way I feel about them, my vote shouldn't be all too surprising. And how have I not added anything new?

Now this is really interesting... you say you would agree with the suspicion of Zakarum. You then say if Zakarum is scum, then I am scum (which I've already said is a bit bogus). Well we don't know that Zakarum is scum do we? So, why are you voting for me and not him, when you claim to be fairly convinced he is scum while I "rub you the wrong way." Now, I won't claim to be a top-notch logician, but your logic seems mighty twisted. Scummy behavior? I wouldn't say that quite yet, but IGMEOY. I think my own reasoning for voting mcpaltp is valid, so my vote still stays for now.

[neko2086]

Holy crap. Did you create that, or is there a program that does that???

Anywho, welcome, first of all, but down to business, I'd like to know why you seem so inclined to think of me as scum, Adel. It seems like anytime I vote for someone, or even if someone votes for me, you make a comment about how it suggests that I am scum. As far as I can tell, you seem to have randomly picked me, with the exception of a comment for opie and one for elias, for scrutinizing votes.

Also, I don't quite see how you find following an fos with a vote scummy...it just seems logical to me that if you are suspicious of someone, you fos them. If they cannot ease your suspicions and you think they are likely scum, you vote them. Isn't that what this whole game is about?

[neko2086]

omg, dude, this is majorly f'd up. Serious postage in a few minutes

[neko2086]

mcpaltp, I don't see anything weird about their jumping on Adel, because he's raised some extremely problematic arguments

What assumption did you make when you developed this model?

many, many assumptions, which I will not be sharing. The central assumption is that the more assumptions I incorporate, the more robust my system will be, which is assuming that more of my assumptions are accurate for a given game than not.

Ok, so you're making lots of assumptions to make this thing work. The problem with assumptions is that they're misleading. The

bigger

problem is that you've based a mathematical equation on your assumptions and now you're touting it to be worthy of basing votes. Plus, you're not willing to share what those assumptions are, so why should we assume you're making good ones?

Could you plug every player into your model and post their results?

I did plug every player in, and I will not share the results

Ok, so you don't want to share this either? That's too bad, because I'd like to know where zakarum fit in all this. Maybe he was the scummiest of all.

But you go on later to say that scum will point a FOS at a buddy, but

not vote

for that buddy until a late bus is needed. You are implying then that typical scum behavior is: FOS (for buddys) not followed by votes (unless bus). If you discount our hindsight (i.e. before the end of Day One), couldn't one have used this logic against Spider Jerusalem? Couldn't one argue based on this logic that Spider pointed a FOS ryan (his buddy) and not voted for him? And was unable to bus his buddy because ryan modkilled himself first?

This is the kind of paragraph that led me to try to develop an accurate model based upon objective observations. It is all bull in my eyes. Not that that makes opie any more scummy to me, pretty much every player is so full of bull I have a lot of trouble telling scum from townie.

Now this is interesting, because to me, your pretty graphs and percentages don't mean anything to me. I completely agree with Bookitty here that that is not sufficient, otherwise we'd be playing with robots, and that would be no fun. You have to analyze what people say.

Bookitty, I would not be expecting a vote from Adel. Here's why:
(a) He pointed a FOS at you in Post 335;
(b) Adel claims to be town;
(c) Townie's don't follow a FOS with a vote for the same person.
Therefore, I wouldn't worry about a vote from Adel. For if Adel

were

to vote for you then he would be acting contrary to typical townie behavior and thus likely scum.

is opie warning his scum buddy not to overreact to my post?

Ok, this something to think about, and you're analyzing text. Good. But here's the kicker...

I think the graph is really fun to look at, and the summary of events was useful to some extent. But I really don't think it's any substitute for actual analysis of what is said, and who said it, and why. If it were, then computers could play the game, and people wouldn't be necessary.

I thought Zakarum was scummy before Adel arrived, and her latest postings seem very distractive and not very helpful to town, even though they're visually stunning. Basing your vote on wordcount? It seems really counter to the spirit of Mafia, and hopelessly random. If she could have pointed to instances where her theory was proven correct, I might have felt differently, but at this point, it just looks like a lot of razzle-dazzle and distraction, and not really helpful to town, especially considering the (in my opinion, at least) scattershot results she seems to be deriving.

Based on my own impressions being nearly diametrically opposite to Adel's results, and on Zakarum's past play, I will:

unvote; vote Adel

I consider this to be the overreaction opie was warning against.

Now this is problematic. You're going off of assumptions again, but trying to portray them as truth. We don't actually know opie was warning bookitty about anything, so you can't really make this leap quite yet.

another scum warning.

FoS: mcpaltp

for trying to warn a scum buddy against over reacting. I have linkage between mcpaltp and opie

or

Bookitty. I dubt all three are in the same scumgroup though- my model is terrible at predicting all 3 members. If Bookitty or opie are lynched and revealed as scum today, mcpaltp is my first choice for lynch tomorrow. He is

not

a good choice for today's lynch though.

...aaannd, there's the leap.

I'm sorry, but your reasoning to me is bogus. Your graphs are useless. Your percentages and assumptions are misleading, and worse yet, you're being

incredibly

secretive. I think you've got something to hide, and you are hiding them with fluffy charts and mumbo jumbo.

Zakarum was fishy enough, but I think this will be plenty to suffice an

unvote, vote:Adel

[neko2086]

Adel, if you're going to get on people about posting without substance, I would hope you could hold yourself to your own standards.

If you want to be remembered, and in a good way, could you do us all a favor and actually read the posts? I mean, not just the vote patterns, but the actual

context

as well. I would find this much more meaningful and pro-town than shady statistics. I don't know about everyone else here, but the numbers just don't mean anything to me without the context.

[neko2086]

OK, Adel, yes you've now brought up an interesting point. If we were all to reread the very first post by Rishi, we would notice that he mentions "the Jersey Devil." I honestly shrugged it off early in the game and completely forgot about it.

If you're suggesting that it's mcpaltp, I'm not sure about that. I don't know where you get that from Jabberwocky, as the poem is nothing but gibberish. Also, I have no idea what breadcrumb means, and I don't see it in the mafia glossary. Could someone help me on that one?

[neko2086]

So, how is my vote on Adel distracting, exactly? I don't see anything Pro-town about what Adel is doing, and I'm not the only one, either. I'm interested to know why you picked me out, as I'm not the only with a vote on Adel.

[neko2086]

Just for clarification everyone, I messed up my quote tags in my 354 post. The following section should have read

Could you plug every player into your model and post their results?

I did plug every player in, and I will not share the results

Ok, so you don't want to share this either? That's too bad, because I'd like to know where zakarum fit in all this. Maybe he was the scummiest of all.


I didn't catch this until recently. Sorry for any confusion





And Adel, I do appreciate your honesty, but I still don't find your tactics in any way helpful. Honestly, I don't care if this site was developed by math geeks (referring to your 373 post), and developing an elitist attitude is not going to make me sympathize with you or respect you in any way.

Anyway, question for Admiral, you said:

Opie would be my number one choice at the moment. I am also suspicious of the hermit, and zakarum was looking suss before adel took over (but I certainly don't want to vote adel out).

Ok, good, so you are alive and well and thinking about the game... do you have anything to follow up those suspicions with?

I've been cautious for two reasons - first of all I started off on shaky ground with the whole day 1 absence thing, and also while I am suspicious of opie I don't feel like I have a watertight case.

I guess not. Boggzie asked you to elaborate on your suspicions, and I'll ask the same thing as well. Maybe you see something we don't, so do share. Also, if you're being cautious because you weren't around much day 1, I can't say that's a great idea. If people thought you were lurky before, you won't ease suspicions by being lurky now, though you did have something to say on Adel so I appreciate that.

Boggzie, I won't complain about being off your list, but that seemed a bit too easy. Plus you didn't answer my question.

Hermit, I was hoping to hear from you. I believe you said you had some more comments.

[neko2086]

You know, I stand by my statements that Adel was in no way helping the town at the time. But, with every townie lynch comes a wealth of information, and now that we know she was really trying to help us out, we ought to do her some justice and take her arguments into serious consideration.

While I still have trouble believing an equation can really figure everything out, she seemed very confident that she had found the scum. I'm not sure about Bookitty yet, and neither was Adel, but for the time being I don't think we can worry about her. Either opie or mcpaltp needs to be lynched.

I was already suspicious of mcpaltp, but Adel seemed to believe that opie needed to be lynched first. During the night, I took this into careful consideration as I watched the three suspected's actions.

Here's the interesting thing. Mcpaltp, opie, and Bookitty, and Boggzie are the only ones who were partly responsible for

both

ryan's and Adel's lynch. Whether Bookitty is more likely scum than Boggzie, I'm not sure yet.

Now, Admiral has been lurky, yes, but he's of late become a target of Bookitty first (quite a few pages ago), followed by questioning by Opie (but admittedly, no vote), and now a brash vote by mcpaltp.

Mcpaltp, do you really think you can get off that easy? You're very quick to point out that boggzie dropped the hammer, but don't forget that you voted Adel as well. I sure as hell don't expect to be let off easy, and if I become suspect in the near future (especially by opie, yourself, and bookitty), I won't be surprised. In fact, I'm surprised I haven't been voted yet, because I thought I saw what the scum's tactic was with hermit's death. Hermit was the only one voting for me, and wouldn't it be so easy to say, look, neko voted for adel, and now he killed off the person voting for him. Maybe the mafia is just waiting for me to talk first, I don't know.

I may be glossing over details, so if anyone needs me to, I will find posts that reference some of the things I said. I just wanted to get this out before the mafia had a chance to say anything against me. At this point, I'm very willing to believe that opie is mafia, but I'm going to go with the one I'm 100% positive about first.

vote: mcpaltp

You're trying to shift attention away from yourself

and

all the others who voted for Adel. Included in these voters is certainly some if not all mafia, I think there is no doubt there.

[neko2086]

Opie, that's exactly why I'm not ready to start voting you yet. I wish Adel would have qualified her numbers, and she didn't. I thought mcpaltp was scummy before and his actions now are only confirming that, so he's the only one of her conjectures I'm willing to follow right now. However, now that you are trying to defend him, I think that's reason to start suspecting you. Not nearly enough for a vote, no, but your voting patterns are suspect too. IGMEOY

I think the case against admiral is nothing but 'he's not posting enough.' Mcpaltp, you'd be "voting so hard" against me right now if it weren't for my voting for you already. You know it'd be an OMGUS vote. I can't wait to see what Bookitty and Boggzie are going to do

[neko2086]

Bookitty, are you referring to Adel's voting pattern notes? Uhm, I asked her about that almost immediately to see why she focused on me, and she basically said they were just notes. I thought it was odd, but she shifted her focus onto others. If you can find further proof that she suspected Admiral and I of working together, please share.

Oh, and just because Adel was no fun to play with, doesn't mean everything she says is invalid. If you are insinuating that you would lynch her

regardless

of her status, that is almost scummier than you voting for ryan to clear your name.

I think it's hilarious you and mcpaltp are trying to connect us, when it's so obvious that opie and mcpalpt are

following each other's footsteps

. You've been after admiral for awhile, and you've been following opie and mcpaltp closely as well.

You know what? Maybe Adel's methods were shit, but if they were, damn was she lucky, because the blatant cooperation between opie and mcpaltp is astounding.

Please, will somebody at least acknowledge this as a possibility? Admiral, get a motherf'ing backbone and give your opinions already. As scummy as the people voting for you are, I hope they will inspire you to say something already. If you are town, for chrissakes do something to be helpful, because admitting that you're a weak link is only going to make you more of a target, get you killed, and make us lose. The only reason why I think you are town at this point is because of the obviously scummy bandwagon forming against you right now.

Mcpaltp, just freakin vote me already. Oh, you won't will you? Ok, so you will, but you'll change your vote back (as if that's supposed to prove you're not afraid of an omgus vote). You know your vote against admiral is too important for your scumbuddies to be able to lynch him.

That's all for now

[neko2086]

Sorry for not being clear, but this is what made me question your motives for voting Adel

[And insulting the other players in a game that was both active and fun? For the record, I'd much rather play exclusively with SA players, whatever they are, than people who are rude and insulting without any real reason.]

My question to you was if you are insinuating that you didn't care whether or not she was town.

To address your other concerns, I don't think you read this...

Opie, that's exactly why I'm not ready to start voting you yet. I wish Adel would have qualified her numbers, and she didn't. I thought mcpaltp was scummy before and his actions now are only confirming that, so he's the only one of her conjectures I'm willing to follow right now. However, now that you are trying to defend him, I think that's reason to start suspecting you. Not nearly enough for a vote, no, but your voting patterns are suspect too. IGMEOY

Plus, when I said, "You know what? Maybe Adel's methods were shit, but if they were, damn was she lucky, because the blatant cooperation between opie and mcpaltp is astounding," I thought I made it pretty clear I'm not making my cases solely based on Adel's fancy little equations.

To say that I am slavishly following Adel's suspicions is severly exaggerating things. I decided to look into her suspicions, question those implicated, and I think the reactions that have come from it have satisfactorally put valid,

qualifiable

suspicion upon your heads.

[neko2086]

My case against opie is underdeveloped. I think I've already admitted this and explained why. Before Adel's lynch, you were never the focus of my attention, which means you were low in my suspicions. For that reason, I still suspect you less than mcpaltp, but once Adel started putting you in the spotlight, your reactions have been very interesting. Looking back at voting records, I've noticed that you, mcpaltp, and Bookitty have consistently voted together. Granted, you don't all give the same reasons for voting ryan/Adel/Admiral (in the case of Admiral, only opie and mcpaltp are voting for him, but Bookitty has voted for him the last time he came under suspicion, and she is returning to the case, likely distancing herself as much as possible from opie and mac before placing a vote), your voting records strongly suggest an alliance.

Now be realistic for a moment. Maybe I'm wrong about the three of you, but the likelihood that I am wrong about

all

of you is nearly impossible. That is why for the moment, I'd rather concentrate on mcpaltp than opie, because I think the case against him is much stronger. But don't worry, Opie, I'll be keeping an eye on you.

Boggzie and bookitty, you have both perplexed me from day one. I don't know what to think of either of you at this point. IGMEOY as well.

Oh, just so everyone knows, the semester is coming to a close, so my posting may be sporadic for awhile. I'll try not to get behind, though, and I won't get to a point where I'd need to be replaced. Just an fyi.

[neko2086]

Bookitty, I think I am making a case on my own terms, and I think I've made this pretty clear already. I don't know how many times I need to point out that I think Adel's methods were shit but the results and reactions are well full of information. That is what I'm going off of, and yes, mcpaltp, I'll gladly put everything into a concrete and pretty list for you in due time, but I don't have that time right now. Also, I don't think I've given boggzie a free pass. In fact, for awhile before Adel got here, I believe I was the only one who didn't forget the ridiculous wagon he started on ryan. Thank you for reminding me about that, because I think that's something I'll definitely look into once again. But back to the free pass thing, I believe I also said that I wasn't sure whether I trust him or bookitty less. If I've got tunnel vision on you, it's because you're the one person I'm pretty much 100% sure is scum.

I will also agree that the lynchees have acted scummy. I would not have voted Adel otherwise. If you were town, I'd understand your voting for her. But, as I'm convinced you're not town, I see your actions as utterly opportunistic, and I saw it in ryan's lynch then, and I see it in Admiral's wagon now.

I have to let this go here for now, but if I've glossed over anything, I'll try to return to it later, and feel free to point it out. Ta.

[neko2086]

Opie, I see what you're saying and I understand how you can see that as scummy. When people suspected me because of Zakarum's vote, I thought it would be valid to be suspicious of him following my vote, but not the other way around. Now that you bring this up, I will definitely re-examine whose vote followed whose, though I don't have the time for it now. I did not necessarily have this in mind when looking at voting patterns.

The difference in these two situations, however, is that in one there is one instance of a similar vote, and in the other, a specific pattern of the same three people voting similarly. I think it's a bit ridiculous to suggest that one instance of two people voting the same way is scummy.

And mcpaltp, I haven't forgotten about you. I need to go back and make more notes, and hopefully I'll have time to do that this weekend.

Happy holidays.

[neko2086]

I'm here, mcpaltp, and I'm working on it, so just sit tight.

In the meantime, you just said something that almost made my head explode:

[quote="mcpaltp] I'm interested in the fact that the scum have not gone for a quicklynch yet. Consider that the chances of 3 scum are probable, and it takes 5 to lynch. This either means that the only guy to have two votes on him (ThAdmiral) is scum, or at least one of the guys voting for him is scum. Buyer beware!
[/quote]


Now, you'll have to clear this up because I'm not following your logic. You're saying that you wouldn't be surprised to see scum going for a quick lynch. You then point out that the only person to have 2 votes on him is Admiral (which, unless I missed something, is false because you also have 2 votes on you). Now, with that set-up, I figure that the logical connection is that the two people voting for that person are possibly scum (which I think is very likely with you and Opie). I really don't see how you came to the conclusion that admiral is scum because two people are voting for him, and why that logic wouldn't pertain to you as well.

I see two scum working together against admiral. Though, I could be wrong about Opie (considering this increasingly less, btw). See, I wouldn't be surprised to see the scum voting differently, because that seems like the smart thing to do. I'm incredibly surprised that you and opie have followed each other so closely up to now, and continue to do so. If Bookitty is scum, which I still think is a strong possibility, I'm not at all surprised that she would be turning against you for distance. I'm not making accusations at this point, because I still don't trust boggzie.

I think you're right about one thing, mc, at least one of the people voting admiral is scum, and I'm certain it's you.


My case against you deals mostly with voting patterns and reactions. I think I've actually been fairly clear about what it is, but I do want to make sure it's laid out clearly. The semester is almost over, and finding time to go back and dig isn't easy, so forgive me for not being able to get it out yet.

[neko2086]

OK, so I've put this off long enough. This is why I'm voting mcpaltp: (Note: I've been writing this on and off, so the POV shifts now and then from MC to you, which is an address to MC)

As I mentioned before, mc voted ryan (post 66) almost immediately after boggzie reveals his 'amazing evidence' (63)

(side note, here's an instance where opie follows mc's vote, and bookitty follows suit, though with hesitation (72, 85))

Memorable quote- "I wish I could vote for you more than once. If you flip town, I'll have egg on my face" (123). It should be of note here, and for future reference, that MC has been basing his vote on overreaction.

A weaker argument, but worthy of note: In post 125, just 6 pages in, MC says that he doesn't like doing the multi-quote megapost. Now, I know I said I'd do this quite awhile ago, but c'mon MC, you've been egging me on for this in every other post now. I'm a student, too, and I said I'd be busy, so you've seemed a bit antagonistic in regards to my not posting this yet.

Now here's the dead horse that's been beaten to death, but since you want my argument again, here it goes. MC says "If I was scum, I'd bus him" (129). It's a joke, no big deal. Feels bad--understandable. Starts overreacting (131). I do realize that you've explained (several times) why you felt bad, but that could still be a convenient excuse to be replaced for what could have been seen as a major slip-up. If you are scum, it would make total sense that you would not only feel bad about being an ass to ryan, but also freaking out your scumbuddies.

On we go. Ryan commits suicide. MC says "Not only is a townie lynched, but we don't even get any vote histories to analyse" (149). That's funny, because although there aren't any real vote changes to analyze, we do have your vote (as well as Opie's).
Next interesting point here: back to the dead horse. NOBODY had a problem with MC's bus comment, yet he is asking again to be replaced. Again, you might feel bad about it, but it is still incredibly convenient to be replaced after having had a vote on a confirmed townie, especially when it was expected that pressure would fall on you.

Now, here's where Admiral becomes the center of MC's attention for (almost), the rest of the game. It starts with a vote to get Admiral to talk (154). For now, this is harmless. I do the same in 224, but unvote in 240 after he has finally contributed something.

Hermit is the first to note that MC's apologies are suspicious (155). He says "a townie bases their votes on logic, reason, and interpretation; they had good reasons for their vote, they just happened to be wrong and the victim was unable to defend himself adequately. A scum, however, KNOWS that their reasons are bad, and they feel guilty for getting someone lynched for no good reason" (159). He is currently dead.

Back to the Admiral. Here is where I made my first case against you. In my post 266, I make some of the aforementioned cases, but also that you're starting to ride other peoples' waves. You use boggzie's argument to keep your vote on admiral (235), and you start voting boggzie when you see that more people are paying attention to him than admiral (262). You ignore my suspicions, and I vote you (284).

Now here's where things get uber interesting. Adel comes in. She makes preliminary notes on voting patterns, which I find odd since she seems fascinated by me (328). Note: Bookitty takes note of this and MC will try to connect admiral and I for rest of game, even though Adel blatantly says there's not much to them (333).
Adel makes a fancy map and chart, which is almost impressing at first, but when she bases absolutely everything off of them and her algorithm... not so much.
Interesting note: MC admonishes Adel for doing something he is guilty of earlier--leading the town (350)
Adel self-votes (why do we get all the suicidal people in one game?), Boggzie hammers, Adel dies with a few parting words, which I'll note later. MC immediately votes admiral.

Now, let me make this perfectly clear, as it has been distorted lately:
I point out that we have new information when a townie dies. We all know this. I reiterate that I don't like her methods, but I suggest we at least take some of her arguments into consideration. If I had really wanted to follow Adel's arguments to the line, I'd be voting Opie, and he was Adel's #1. Rather, I take note that mcpaltp is shifting attention away from himself, as well as all those who voted for Adel. This is bizarre to me because it would seem that the obvious place to look for the scum is in the Adel-wagon. But, that is dangerous territory for you, since you are not only a part of the Adel-wagon, but also that of Ryan, and the building arguments against admiral (418).

MC replies by implying that I have full faith in Adel's algorithm all of a sudden, which I think I made clear is not true (419). He does this in posts 428 and 436 as well.

MC makes an argument that I am defending admiral, when in fact I'm really just arguing against MC (459). He finds a strange way to connect me to Admiral's absence (469).

In my post 471, I point out a strange comment of yours. It's only a page back, so I'm not going to repeat it. It's important though, so please reread it and take note of mc's reaction on the next page.

By now, I'm noticing that MC is using lots of CAPS. He is getting incredibly frustrated, and being that he made such a strong case against ryan's overreacting earlier, I find this odd (474 among others).

You recently said, "The vote against opie seems opportunistic and right in step with your buddy, neko," to admiral, which is funny because all i've said about opie so far is that you both have been voting very similarly this entire game. You shake it off as "funny" and now you're going to start looking into him.


Now, it's possible I picked up on something and dropped it, but I'm tired so I'm not going to bother proof-reading this. It's mostly chronological, so the arguments may still be split up, but it's all here. If anyone would like clarification on anything, please say so.

[neko2086]

Now that this is the second time you've done it, I think it's incredibly interesting to note that you have a tendency to do voting fake-outs.

You did it earlier when I speculated you wouldn't vote me for fear of having an omgus charge, and you unvoted, voted me, unvoted, and replaced your vote, as if that was going to fool anyone.

Now you unvoted and suggested for a moment you might vote yourself by making a fake vote. That looked threatening, ok sure, but it's the actual vote that counts.

Your fake votes don't fool me, and your appeal to fear (of a town loss) isn't fooling me either

[neko2086]

Wow and wow. I feel like a complete dumbass. Well, I have to stand by most of my arguments, even though they turned out to be pretty much wrong. I realized after mcpaltp turned up townie (which surprised the hell out of me), that it would be a major oversight of the scum to be voting so closely together.

This was such a hard game. Elias, I'm not sure I would have ever caught onto you. Hasdgfas, I wondered about you, but others stuck out so much more. I have to say, this was incredibly well played by the mafia. Thanks for the condolences, Rishi, but I feel partly responsible for the town loss. I was

so sure

mcpaltp was scum, but I guess not.

Mcpaltp, for what it's worth, I'm sorry
I was going to say this at the end whether you turned up scum or town: I do believe you felt bad about the bus comment. I just couldn't believe, though, that you felt so bad about it as to wanting to be replaced. It seemed far too convenient. But, I really hope you won't hold a grudge against me, because I really felt you were enjoyable to play with.

Adel, sorry, but, I still think your play was rather unhelpful, but perhaps it was the reaction of the town (including myself) that was most harmful from that situation.

ThAdmiral, I was never very convinced that you were scum. Unfortunately, due to a lack of posting, you were gaining lots of negative attention.

Bookitty, pretty good playing overall, although I noticed how hard you advocated against admiral. On the other hand, I didn't really have anything else against you, so I'd say you did really well at staying out of the spotlight enough.

Overall, this was an incredibly fun game. I hope you won't hold my bull-headedness against me. I learned a lot from this game. I really look forward to playing in future games with you all!

[neko2086]

Also, Rishi, you have been a wonderful mod. I can comfortably say that your the most creative and, most importantly, attentive mod I've had yet. Thanks for a great game!