433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[gorckat]

vote: superstring91

No flavor! No theme! Aaaagh

[gorckat]

unvote

I'm not too put off by a 4th vote. I don't think it is as dangerous as 2 votes in a C9 because there's a lot more to go wrong to allow the hammer and I don't think we have that many new players in this game (without checking all the join dates).

[gorckat]

I'm alive- Net at work was done since last Wednesday and my home life has been crazy (b-day party with my daughter, best friend bought a house and is moving- loads of drama).

I'll try to catch up today.

[gorckat]

I hope this is a cannonball and not a belly flop, Das

Dodgy: wow.

Now...

If we lynch CES:

-he's doc and mafia have a real sweet time picking off whomever they want
-he's scum and we all high-five each other
-he's vanilla (or something else) and we all (mafia, too!) shake our heads

If we don't lynch CES:

-he dies and is doc
-he dies and is something else
-he doesn't die but someone else does- mafia dump us into WIFOM fever
-no one dies- WIFOM fever on steroids

I'm in favor of not lynching CES. I think we learn more having a 'known unknown' than not having it. Rather than do the mafia's job for them, I say let them kill the doc and let's turn our attention towards the other 10 unknowns (12 minus CES and my/yourself). If he's around tomorrow we can deal with him.


Fonz does catch my eye. My first re-read through gave me the distinct impression he wants CES to either get lynched for lying or claim Doc and get NK'd.

He also had an indirect defense/affirmation of pete d (post 130) that seemed to be unwarranted. It just caught my eye when I read over it, but I'm not entirely sure why.

Looking back at pete's posts, he flipped on Fonz within 24 hours, so I need to go back there a little more later.

[gorckat]

ADD: I starter post 196 between 191 and 192 (stupid work getting in the way of my game )

As you're asking me what I'd do if X and Y, what do you think we should do if:

a) A pro-town player who is not CES dies tonight
b) No one at all dies tonight.

I'll also answer that since it could be directed to me after my post. I wasn't going to, but since it's come up even before

I

posited those scenarios:

a) vote CES
b) not vote CES

Worst case: CES as doc and 3 other townies die over next day/night

Which can happen if we lynch CES now, tomorrow or let the mafia do it tonight. Which is why I say let the scum do it for us and direct our attention elsewhere.

[gorckat]

I guess I was mostly thinking out loud with that first post. It didn't seem like all the possibilities were just laid out there at all- just pushing for one action or the other.

I see us potentially coming out ahead if we let CES alone for the moment- we can always lynch him tomorrow if he survives. Yes- we do have to entertain the chance that he is scum and could weasel out of a lynch.

If he's the doc, the mafia

have

to kill him. In my own experience in Newb 309, I convinced my partner to leave the claimed cop alive and that we could reason him out as scum. Partner got investigated and I pushed too hard Day 3 for the loss.

If they let a doc live, he might end up getting a protect in on the guy the decide to off. Which could end up being the cop- who knows.

If CES lives, then we need to look at who went down Day 1 and Night 1 and go from there. But if he dies, I see the town as one effective lynch to the good because they did our dirty work for us.

I think you and I are pushing for the same thing from opposite ends. You want CES taken out up front (Day 1) and I'm pushing for it from the other side (Day 2 with more context and possibly evidence of his innocence).

[gorckat]

This does kind of go back on my previous posts, but I'm not sure this was brought up in Fonz's LAL reason for voting Dodgy/CES:

Correct me if I'm wrong but you have only been playing for a couple of weeks and

being privy to all members lists and their IP addresses

, I can see that you havn't been a player before that date under a different name, so I ask again, are you really experienced enough to make such a statement?

It was stated that he doesn't have that ability. Is that a sufficient lie to warrant a lynch? Or is LAL generally kept to in-game lies? I'm gonna review real quick to see if that was touched on.

Here:

There is a VERY good chance that we have 3 Scum in this game and my guess is that you've all be outed in day 1.
I think the 3 scum are The Fonz, Dasquian and superstring91.
All 3 of you know that I'm not scum and thats why you are all going in for the kill and to get people onside.

also leaves me a little skeptical. Sounds a little desperate even there and reads like a scum appealing to the townies with the "you know I'm innocent"...doesn't feel like the ideal townie defense I'd be looking for. More OMGUS than "here's why I'm on the town's side"

I only bring these points up because I don't recall off-hand if they were already and I hadn't looked at Dodgy's stuff except when re-reading as a whole, and then just went with CES after he quit.

[gorckat]

vote: thorgot

for contributing even less than I have and only weighing in around Dodgy with a joke about Fonz's guilt.

[gorckat]

gorckat: Not posting much, just like me. Maybe he has finals or something, like me.

Nope- just outta town per TSQ's post 225

Not too much has happened since I listed my thoughts Monday before I was away. I'll reread and post more tonight.

[gorckat]

I've reviewed Sweeney's posts and disagree with thorgot's views on him, but will leave it to Sweeney to defend himself.

CES is also notably absent from discussion since looking for a bandwagon to hang his vote on...

[gorckat]

vote:CES

One, to get some discussion (hopefully). Two, for ducking and running with an itty-bitty post that adds little, if anything.

[gorckat]

I'm gonna go back to

vote:thorgot

.

Gorckat isn't very suspicious to me, because he is so inactive.

gorckat: Not posting much, just like me. Maybe he has finals or something, like me.

It strikes me as saying- "Hey, I'm not posting much like this guy over here...we must be innocent, right?" Neither post was particularly through in listing suspicions/thoughts on people. Both mention CES/Dodgy and one seems to aim at Fonz, the other he looks at the Southpaw voters.

Neither post strikes me as intending to call out lurkers...I'm just not liking the connection made between me and him.

Also- he's been innattentive, which is anathema to town. He speculated I had finals (TSQ posted I was out of town) and he claims to not have seen direct questions.

[gorckat]

Easy post weekend catchup...not much has happened lately.

I propose the following to make InHim explain himself and the term 'scummy mediating' more thoroughly:

vote: inHimshallibe

Also:

Kudos to gorckat for saying something about this earlier, too. I'm writing him down as a good guy at the moment.

I find those sorts of statements to suspect. Maybe I just perk up when someone uses my name in that context, but on day one with no leads I feel like someone's trying to buy my trust.

[gorckat]

unvote

vote: kilmenator

That said, no reason to disbelieve the doc claim.

At this point though, I think Dodgy was the doc, and we will find out tonight, because I am sure that scum will make him their target tonight if he is truly the doc, at this point we need to focus our attention elsewhere.

1. I do not propose that he is doc who retracted a claim, I propose that as of right now, I don't know what the hell he is, but the mafia probably do.

I wouldn't even put it past dodgy that he might have been a different powerrole. Think about it, if he's trying to screw the town, and hence me, what better than to get one powerrole lynched and the other outed day one? The best case scenario right now for town is him dying night one.

If he survives, we're in the same confusing position we are in now. Like i said before, WIFOM central.

I agree that if he is not scum he will not die tonight, but I also like the "lynch all liars rule" if he is now claiming vanilla, he is basically playing head games with us.

kilmenator follows Fonz pretty well here. pete had pointed out these two posts of kilm's earlier suspecting something, but not much came of it. In my reread today, they stood out.

I know it delves into the whole claim retraction thing, but I think more telling is that kilm is making predictions of scum targets both ways. I did it as a noob scum, and while kilm is no noob, I think it might have some meat on its bones.

[gorckat]

So why the change from he'll get lynched to they'll let him live?

[gorckat]

EBWOP: That should be NK'd, not lynched.

[gorckat]

Original? Hmmm...Maybe its 11 SKs and a single Townie...Gives me about a 1 in 10 (off the cuff) chance of seeing tomorrow...

Insightful? Who hasn't posted in the third longest time? My bet (off the cuff, again) is that they're scum that decided to lay low after a few others faded...

[gorckat]

Wow- here's my review (using last post date before today):

Southpaw 5-2
Sweenytodd 5-3
thorgot 5-16
pete d 5-17
dom:inc 5-17
superstring91 5-17
Dasquian 5-20
CogitoErgoSum 5-20
Eletriar 5-22
gorckat 5-24
kilmenator 5-24
The Fonz 5-24

Therefore, thorgot

must

, without a single doubt, be scum...

He keeps popping up on my radar, joke logic included:

vote: thorgot

[gorckat]

I knew something was off about Sweeney not posting that long and I now remember I had meant to send a PM to TSQ asking if he could update the first post because I got really confused in a re-read last week.

[gorckat]

There are at least 4 people who need replacements. I am trying my hardest.

How'd I miss that after I posted before and after it?

The

goggles

glasses! They do nothing!

[gorckat]

I read through this game already, knowing I was going to be replacing into it. I decided I was most suspicious of thorgot and kilmenator.

Where there's smoke, there's fire.

But- let's go to five since things are rolling again and my follow-up question was ignored when kilm touched base.

vote: kilmenator

[gorckat]

The only other person really sticking out to me is Gorckat ..

I've found his play in this game to be flamboyant when voting for one. He had a sudden change of heart when Kilmenator had 4 votes and seemed to take advantage of throwing on the 5th. Originally he had voted Kilmenator, retracted his vote and placed it on Thorgot aka Off the mark, based on what? .. Joke logic?

Flamboyant is not an adjective often used to describe me...I'll take it as a compliment

thorgot/OTM and kilmenator are at the top of my list.

thorgot was inactive, inattentive, never really weighed in on Dodgy and even his replacement suspected him during his pre-PM reading of the thread. However, I assume his replacement will be contributing more, so some of the reasons I voted him may be invalidated.

I left kilm to vote thorgot primarily to generate some discussion. Yes- he popped up as my joke logic's target and I had missed TSQ's post saying four people were due replacement. My earlier reasons were still valid, but I probably would not have voted him had I seen he was likely to be replaced.

Hopping back on kilm to put her at -2 is the first opportunity I've had to put pressure on someone I felt deserved it.

My vote on inHim was more of a "Hey- people are waiting for you to answer a direct question!" vote.

[gorckat]

I do agree with him somewhat about Gorckat, though... a couple of his posts seemed "off" to me too, while reading through, but overall I felt his suspicions made sense, if you can ignore the jokes. So I came away thinking, "goofy but pro-town"

Now goofy

is

a word used to describe me I'll take that as a compliment, too.

[gorckat]

After a brief skim of the recent stuff, my gut is telling my Gorckat is our scum, but I haven't taken the time to put my finger on anything concrete yet. No defense needed yet, but expect something to follow.

Take your time- I'll gladly answer whatever anyone finds.

[gorckat]

I think the little goofy 'flair/flamboyance' might be a style thing that means I'm becoming more comfrotable on the site. This is only my second mini, plus two Newbies. In the meatworld, I try not to sweat the small stuff and do tend to make and enjoy stupid jokes and draw bizarre connections between thigns to my amusement.

As for moving my votes as I have, one thing I'm learning in this game and the other one that I'm in is that just calling someone out isn't always effective. Voting people gets their attention. No doubt I'm doing so in the most hamfisted fashion possible.

This game has gone through some weird swings of personal meltdowns and dreadful lulls and I feel I've tried to use my vote to help keep things going.

Now, as for my not wantign to lynch CES and then voting him: a few things had changed in between.

1) When CES replaced in, I felt a lynch of him gave the scum the edge if he turned out to be the doc. Hellish though it might be (WIFOM central as mentioned), I'd rather deal with him tomorrow or force the scum to take him out.
2) He said he felt "like hopping on a bandwagon" on 5-6. His next post ws 5-12: "Typo or Freudian slip?" (page 10).
3) I voted CES because he still hadn't voted anyone, and the game was craaaawling at that point.
4) After he checked in (and still hadn't voted after saying we all needed to vote more), I saw thorgot's laziness/inattentiveness. Thinking it scummy, since they can get away without paying too much attention becaue they know more than the rest of us, I called him out.

Anyway- yes, things have changed a bit since I laid out my reasons to let CES live. Still think that's the right choice at this time. Also note that between each of my vote changes, several meaty days passed- time spent reviewing and with others posting.

[gorckat]

Gorckat

Lurked through most of the beginning of the game. Unlike dom's posts, Gorc's posts seem to be deliberately agreeing with the crowd - nobody can look back on the general wave of arguments being made and single Gorckat out to be accused of anything. Which is scummy.

He then turns around and votehops like CRAZY (votes for 4 different people, three of them twice, in the span of 13 posts). Echoes the crowd when asked for reasoning (plus some crap reasoning of his own - generating discussion this late in day 1? C'mon). He then accuses Thorgot of lurking, after doing it himself for the first half of the game. Has crappy reasons for not voting CES ("What if he was town?"). In a particularly hypocritical post, he goes from playing the n00b card to saying he's learned from experience that votehopping is effective. Glorckat has twirked my scumdar quite a bit as well.

1) Lurking: Had a week w/o access at work and too much going on at home to post, which was during the Dodgy drama. Also had several days out of town early-mid May.
2) Nope- I can't be accused of much...except not being accusable. Is this a "too-townie" attack?
3) I explained my vote hops (and touch on it again in a sec) as best I could in the last post.
4) Generating discussion late- yep. Not much was happening, there was no deadline and no wagon and thus little info being put out there. I also explained, iirc, why I chose CES (lack of anything since I had earlier explained my willingness to give him a pass)
5) Yes- I'm a noob. I'm gonna learn from pretty much

every

game I'm in or will be in now and in the near future. And I didn't say vote hopping was effective. I said voting a person was an effective way to get questions answered when they'd been avoided.

Wasn't I the first to vote kilm a couple pages back? And I'm on kilm again again, awaiting answers that (at least when I started this ~30 minutes ago, stupid work) haven't been answered on the whole Fonz following.

I imagine kilm is also under your suspicion for lurking and following, etc, etc?

Why does dom get a pass? I took a side on CES. I said "Don't lynch" at first and still do at the moment.

[gorckat]

Well, then...pardon my moutain of your molehill :p

I tend towards addressing any concern out my way and didn't want to leave things glossed over.

And I need to review my stuff on thorgot and kilm- I really thougt I'd 'led' on those two, at least somewhat.

[gorckat]

I've been re-reading the first few pages as I've had time today...this really is a new game like whoever said theat earlier. Only 5/6 of the original 12 are still here.

@IH: Are you suggesting Fonz was looking to label whomever reacted to his vote as scum?

[gorckat]

@kilm: I've gone over my vote record in my recent posts.

How do you mean the switch on CES' fate was not a switch? You first said he'd get NK'd, then that he wouldn't. What do you know about tonight's actions we don't?

Also:

He is either the doc, or scum, or townie, but being that he already claimed doc,

I find it extremely scummy

that the claim was retracted

What I meant was that

I find it semi-scummy

that CES retracted Dodgy's claim.

Quite different degrees of scumminess there.

[gorckat]

...I guess I am not entirely sure, the retraction was scummy, but that isnt the only reason that I find him scummy, Dodgy's actions were scummy too.

At first, you found Dodgy's claim believable:

At this point though, I think Dodgy was the doc, and we will find out tonight, because I am sure that scum will make him their target tonight if he is truly the doc, at this point we need to focus our attention elsewhere.

Fonz was the first to say 'no reason to disbelieve'. Once other people started to point it out and the claim was retracted by CES, you started to question it.

I find it likely that it could all be fluff being that Dodgy was an experienced player and I can not imagine him making such a silly move as doc.

You went from believing the claim and thinking we should look elsewhere to it being unimaginable...

[gorckat]

A(dd)BWOP:

So where in those first most relevant reactions did you find

Dodgy

to be suspect?

[gorckat]

Probably because his meltdown made it harder to decipher him. I've never seen anything like it (as Johnny Depp said "Pi-rate" say "Noo-oob" :p).

If we had more from CES, we could simply judge the role, not the player, if that makes any sense.

On the one hand, I get laying low like he has, but I also get what someone else had said about how they'd expect him to be pushing hard trying to help the town.

[gorckat]

Thanks, Das, for making me a follower again :/

I wanted to dig as much as I could into all the little discrepancies I could to try and force more, but I think she covered her bases well.

I re-read OTM this morning and haven't gotten quite the same vibe as with thorgot, so I'll decide exactly who to vote later today.

unvote

[gorckat]

I'm still reading through people...not sure where I want to put my vote at the moment...more in a (hopefully) short bit.

[gorckat]

On InHim:

Up through page 8, and I think I have a pair o' scum:

pete d and The Fonz

<snip> I think these two are up to no good.

Ha, and there you go with backing up pete d again.
<snip>
I attacked you because I think you're scummy.

@ The Fonz: you're answering questions better than I think scum would at the moment, so for this Day I'm going to have to let you sit on the back burner.

@ pete d: what was said on those first few pages haven't changed, have they? Yes, I still think shady stuff was happening there early on.

But.

I think this Day has ran its course.

unvote; vote: kilmenator - I like this vote better than the other, but with fair warning, I'll hammer Off the Mark.

Despite your, presumably, best judgement that Fonz and pete are scum partners, you're willing to vote/hammer two other players with no reasoning behind why...

Alright, so the replacements have had a lot of their say as far as review goes.

And, even with it, I still want to lynch kilmenator. IH, I guess fault me for not knowing The Fonz "uses metas more," but I think in this game he's scummy for pushing his argument for so long. It just cries of a desperate attempt.

But, I have been wrong before, and kilmenator just seems to be the better choice for Today because of some coattail riding, which I will gladly take care of with a Day 1 lynch. That's why my vote is where it is.

You reassert that Fonz is scum.

Pretty sure my suspicions of pete d have been right where I left them. But good job trying to clear your partner's name, again. Also, I don't believe I said you were "more town" but rather that I'd let you be for Today.

Again with the scumbuds.

So, moving down the list, pete d still hasn't done anything to improve his standing with me, it's just that kilm and OtM have gotten worse. The Fonz's consistency is why I've got you listed on the bottom, even if I think you're being consistent scum.

You've been needling at Fonz the whole time and never voted him. Why not?

vote:inHimshallibe

[gorckat]

You're currently my second biggest suspect. I'd like to see some pretty substantial analysis, if you wouldn't mind.

Hope that is suitably substantial...its not the most verbose package, but I hope it promotes some dialog with inHim.

[gorckat]

Crazy weekend (moving in a month or so).

I read up late last night and this morning. I also found it curious that even though it was OTM's jumping off of kilm that made OTM so much more suspect, inHim still voted kilm. I would think you'd vote for the person most likely confirming themselves.

[gorckat]

I hate being wrong, but that does seem to make the most sense...

[gorckat]

Hoping a CES wagon starts to roll?

[gorckat]

Oh, please. You didn't post for over 48 hours yourself Monday to Wednesady (my time).

Am I following every time I comment on people's motivations when they're the subject of much scrutiny?

[gorckat]

As for gorckat, his comment did surprise me, as I had him pretty solidly in the good guy camp. I hope he's just misguided.

I was just speculating on what I felt was an obvious possibility.

[gorckat]

I'm thinking Pie doesn't want to chance inHim to claim because the scum could end up with more info than would be good for the town...still rolling around some scenarios in my head, but I think I agree with his stance.

I haven't Devil's Advocated myself yet, so I'm not putting out rationale yet, if ever.

[gorckat]

That makes me wonder why people looking for a particular person to claim aren't voting him...isn't that generally how you get people to claim, rather than just talking big about how that person needs to claim?

[gorckat]

Makes sense, but don't you still put your money where your mouth is? Maybe that's just me.

[gorckat]

Better to be in active waiting than passive waiting. At least we have the prospect of something happening now.

[gorckat]

I also hold by my earlier idea that the <weird claim player> be given a pass to see what happens tonight. Same boat tomorrow, and that worst case is today's worst case.

Skimming inHim's posts again, I noticed he said he'd hammer anyone since no case is needed to gain info. Then he suggested that Fonz (iirc) should unvote him if he's having doubts about him being scum...seems a little contradictory/self-preserving.

[gorckat]

4.) If a deadline passes without a player or No Lynch receiving a majority of the votes, the day will end with the person with the highest votes being lynched. If two players are tied are tied for the highest number, then the player who reached that number first will be lynched,

It doesn't take a majority to lynch at deadline, just more that want MBL than another. I think there may be enough people willing to do that.

I'm not one of them, but don't want to see people misrepresent/understand the conditions for lynch.

MBL might be bullshitting, but its sensible shit; selfish actions don't line up with improving the team (scum) situation when throwing a fit.

OTM seemed to be caught when he backpedaled on his reasons to unvote inHim...

Fonz- how'd you get that list?

[gorckat]

unVote: inHim

Quite a lot of info to take in over the weekend.

I, too, was pretty suspicious of thorgot, so the looks OTM is getting feel right to me.

I'm not sure I won't be back on inHim or not...I think he's still at -1 or -2, iirc, so I'm just backing off while I re-evaluate.

I'm waiting to see string's post and OTMs reactions today, as well as mull over the wealth of content that MBL put out in discussion with folks.

[gorckat]

Yeah, I'm playing it safe- I wanna nail scum over a townie. It seems like most of the action in this game happens without me around, excepting the few flurries I've had around kilm and inHim. It takes me longer to get a read on other's interactions than my own.

One possibility around the OTM/kilm connection I haven't seen mentioned is OTM being more easily persuaded by kilm's defense because he knew it to be 100% true...he voted kilm since it was easy to fit in on that dieing wagon, saw a reasonable defense likely to persuade people and then bailed.

(20 minutes later)

I was about to revote inHim, given the amazing amount of sense Das made regarding his various actions, but a re-read of inHim leads me in a circle to budding suspicions regarding Fonz.

Fonz at one point had me as his second scummiest, and most recently on his no-lynch list, even though I'd grant my recent play hasn't been outstandingly town.

(40 minutes later- chit-chat with the boss at work :p)

Right now, I'm leaning towards an inHim revote, followed by OTM and then possibly Fonz, even though no one else has expressed any desire there.

[gorckat]

vote: inHim

Das and Pie have made good points questioning some of his actions and re-reading reaffirms my feeling that he's the best choice.

[gorckat]

As it stands I think inHim is our best lynch today, and I think his gambit smacks of desperation of someone who has no good answers to his bandwagon.

What worries me about inHim is that it is a bandwagon that has gone to -1 under a deadline, and it feels like we've simply been distracted away from it.

That being said, I'm finding InHim's resistance to claiming a bit scummy ("It helps the town" is unneccesarily vague, and he attacked Gorckat rather than Gorckat's legitimate point).

These were the points that made me feel justified re-voting him. I do feel like we've been distracted off of his wagon.

[gorckat]

Checking in- my home PC is down a case fan and maybe a power supply, so I can only post from work for a few days.

Reading up, I'm not sure I can really add much.

Part of me is just eager to close the day and see what we can learn from inHim (or whomever's) alignment and any night actions.

Nanook and string have both been silent the last week, with string short a promised post:

i am going to leave my vote on until tomorrow, when i have

thoroughly

reviewed what i have missed

That strikes me, since they are both voting MBL. Not sure if that points at anything, but does raise my eyebrow.

[gorckat]

The Gunsmith can check one customer each night, and finds out whether that player has a gun (Mafia, Cops, FBI Agents, Vigilantes, Army Veterans, etc).

With 3 down, that's gotta be either 2x Vig or SK, 1x Vig and 1x SK, or 2 scum groups with 1x Vig or 1x SK...yeesh. Lethal.

nanook: 1 (

mbl

)
inhim: 5 (Daquian,

IH

, gorckat, kilm, off the mark)
MBL: 3 (Pie, superstring, nanook)
Off the mark: 3 (

inhim

,

fonz

pete d)

I don't think any one moved or added votes between there (post 551, page 23) and the deadline). The kills are pretty well spread out. I added strikethroughs for the dead.

I see Das's reply in the preview, so here's watcher:

A somewhat common information role that can target a person at night and learn if that person targeted anybody the same night. In this regard it is generally less effective than a Tracker, who also learns who the person targeted.

I don't think the mafia would've hit MBL since a number of people (myself included) had said he'd be lynch worthy if he survived.

[gorckat]

Allowing claimants to pick each other would allow scum to run through themselves or avoid each other, as they see fit. What about a dice determined random order?

[gorckat]

To take power out of scum's hands, I'd be okay with Kilm determining the entire claim order as long as she goes first, though.

Are we certain she's town?

[gorckat]

Good call- that makes sense.

I'm game for kilm setting the order then.

[gorckat]

Vanilla. Get to vote as often as I want.

[gorckat]

Pie and Dasq, now...

[gorckat]

I feel so left out, Das

Since three people bit it, should we assume there is an SK out there? Or 2 two person scum groups?

[gorckat]

LYLO=LYnch/LOse=Lynch scum or Lose

Given 3 people dropped, I don't think its impossible to imagine a cop not coming forward if they investigated one of the fallen.

Skimming posts today, pete and superstring catch my eye as being active lurky. Nanook and Pie make me raise an eyebrow as well, but that could just be OMGUSy thoughts since they both suspected me at various times. Both had gone after either/both CES/MBL.

[gorckat]

Reviewing some previous posts and recent stuff, I'm thinking:

Town: Das, OTM, kilm, me
Unknown: Pie, Nanook, pete, string

I know that's a partial restatement of what I said a short it ago, but I'm comfortable asserting that I think those three (you three, since we're the only ones posting at the moment ) are on the right side of things.

[gorckat]

Sure thing, pie. I got nothing to hide:

Scum (both Newbies):
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4713 (310)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4730 (309)

Town:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5525 (Open 25)
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=64706 (Newbie 11 @ MTGS)

Those are my completed games. Not sure if Open 25 is a good reflection of my play since I ended up self-voting in frustration Day 3 after cornering scum Day 1 when he claimed Scum/Jester. The one at MTGS went for a few days so is probably more accurate.

[gorckat]

EBWOP: I might have those Newbies numbered in reverse. I replaced into 310, FWIW.

[gorckat]

Nanook did seem pretty convinced MBL was scum in his posts. I'm not sure this statement clears him, though.

[gorckat]

For the record, guessing at what the scum will claim is probably the purest form of WIFOM.

well, of course.

im just guessing what scum would claim from my experience as scum.
of course, there are occasions where it is more beneficial to claim vanilla.
claiming a power role usually works best when there is a lot of confusion in the town, or when roles are not revealed upon death.

OTM left one post of his PBPA. In this one, string you state:

im just guessing what scum would claim from my experience as scum.

Links to games as scum please?

[gorckat]

Sorry- no accusation or finger pointing from me, OTM. (Unless you feel guilty, in which case, talk about it...you'll feel better ) Just saying I hadn't looked at that post along with all the others, and seeing it, want to see the games he's referring to.

[gorckat]

Yeah- I'm in the middle of moving. I'm checking in when I can, but might not be able to again until after Friday.

[gorckat]

I'm back- ended up needing off work on Monday as well for my move and I have no desk for the PC at the momnet (old one was too big for the new house).

Anyway- as too my "I got nothing to hide"- couldn't it just be the truth? I don't have anything too hide. Saying it is a scum tell is WIFOM:

-a townie has nothing too hide
-a scum would therefore say he has nothing to hide
-but if a person says he has nothing to hide, he'd be accussed of being scum
-so a scum wouldn't say it lest he be accussed of being scum
-so he could say it because he knows he'd be accussed and could poiunt out the WIFOM

I think that's the correct way it breaks down- I've missapplied the term and how it works before.

[gorckat]

My motivation was responding to pie's request for games as scum and town. I could have responded, "I'm a noob- I don't have a predictable style yet" or "Why? Can't you see I'm town based on my play here?"

Instead, I gave him all I had with the statement in question.

[gorckat]

OTM: You're very wishy-washy on thinking I'm scum. Everything you said is either qualified by something like "it could be legitimate" or is something that Nanook did (following), though you don't list him as possible scum. You say you're neutral on me, but that you wouldn't be surprised if I'm scum along with string (slight rephrasing/ordering here).

Also, on saying that I psuedo-hammered inHim...if I were scum and knew that MBL and inHim and you were town, why would I need to make such a bold, possibly reckless, vote? I could have let the deadline take out any one of three townies.

pete: What exactly are you showing with your kilm wagon listing? You show my votes moving at the beginning, which I've explained previously. Did anyone else move their votes during the kilm wagon?

If I'm more suspicious to you than I was previously, can you tell me why?

[gorckat]

Sorry- I misread this: "I guess I'm still leaning towards superstring as the #1 suspect, but I wouldn't be too surprised if gorckat was scum now."

[gorckat]

EBWOP: FWIW- I also see string as #1, but we're in some limbo waiting for any prods to resolve (go, go gadget PM-powers )

[gorckat]

I checked, and superstring and Nanook are posting in other parts of the site (superstring's last post was on August 2, Nanook's on July 31).

vote: superstring91

.

FoS: Nanook

for lurking.

That's not cool. string has been called out and hopefully prodded and still hasn't posted.

I still want him to post links to games as scum.

@pie: Ever get around to reading those links I provided? iirc, you read Pie's and made a judgement on his play.

[gorckat]

Heh- first, two things. One, that my last comment to pie should've said 'you read OTMs' Two, somehow I missed the bulk of pete's post replying to my question to him. Thanks for that.

Second- OTM has jumped quite a bit of late. He tried (or did, depending on your opinion of me) to lay out a case against me when he voted, but then says he never felt good about it.

I'm not sure what to make of it- the game being slow is frustrating, and I know that can skew things, especially if its townies lurking. Once things pick up and we have better reactions to gauge, I'll feel more comfortable breaking out the noose.

I'm trying not to cling stubbornly to my earlier assertions of who's town. That sort of conviction has burned me in other games.

[gorckat]

I checked Dasq's last post date and saw that he hadn't done anything since then. I figured if pete was being oppotunistic, he would've called out Dasq as well. If Dasq had had posts, I would've guessed at them being scum. Somewhere in there I figured since Dasq wasn't called out, pete was being straight and didn't think to check string's and Nook's post dates.

@the room: is there anyone who's scum partner I <i>haven't</i> been OTM, pete...who else has someone paired me with? I feel like there are others...

I'm hesitant to damn you for your hops and leanings, OTM, since I did it too on Day One, but from the outside it does look sketchy.

I'm off to check string and nook's post dates myself...

[gorckat]

Okay- string had a number of posts (most as a mod, but also a BAH post) since his last here. He posted in other games a full week after his last post here.

I wouldn't say pete was trying to fool us.

[gorckat]

Checking in, myself. Home with my sick daughter the last two days, and still no desk for the PC in my new home

I reread since my last post, and wil post again shortly- have to get a little work done first.

[gorckat]

I like your analysis, Dasq. Very well done. Only problem is, due to Pete D's recent reaction to my votes, I can't see Pete D and superstring both as scum. So we have to get it right between the 2 at the top of your scummy list.

They don't have to be together if they're on competing scum teams.

[gorckat]

Dry bland, generic doesn't scream 1-shot Vig, Gunsmith or Watcher to me. I think Cop, Doc and Scum when I think of a generic game. I suppose a 'generic' Cop can constructed out of a Gunsmith and Watcher, so perhaps that is what the generic means.

To my knowledge, 2 scum groups is possible in a Normal, which this game is, so I've kept that as a possibility in my speculation.

Why'd you duck pj's question, OTM?

[gorckat]

I am, somewhat. Things are a little slow. We're waiting on pj to re-read his second time and also for flea to jump in.

No reason for the rest of us to stop chatting (I would have over the weekend, but again with no access).

I'm just as uncertain as you claim to be. At one point I was convinced that you, kilm and Das were clear. But two of the other 4 have been replaced, so that tosses that out the window (which I may have already done last week...I forget) since new people bring new stuff.

[gorckat]

kilm hasn't posted in the last week. Why not?

As for flea- the game's on. Two people have voted you, and I also had you as my #1 recently.

[gorckat]

most likely, we're dealing with a scum-group of 3 and a SK

To clarify by way of example:

Worst case (if scum continually hits townies):

* Lynch townie,

scum-group (say two people)

quicklynches = 7 alive
* SK kills quicklynching scum, scum kills townie = 5 alive
* Lynch quicklynching scum = 4 alive

Why the distinction between 2 and 3 scum here?

[gorckat]

That's how I read and understood it. Just looking to see if it was a slip of some sort.

[gorckat]

I haven't been trying to find someone to run with my ideas, I'm fishing for ideas to run with. I did acknowledge the hypocrisy of me calling OTM's recent moves scummy. At this point, we're in a more tenuous situation, so I've held back a bit compared to Day 1.

I'm most skeptical of flea- he has to carry string's pedigree, and hasn't done anything of his own to advance any scum hunting.

OTM: You

almost

posted the

almost

exact same thing pj just posted? Do you mean when you voted me and didn't feel good about it?

[gorckat]

Certainly this could be honest investigation...

You've hedged like this every time you cast any suspicion on me. How is that any different than you saying I'm implying suspicion?

I haven't wanted to, because I'm stubborn and cling to earlier ideas that made sense at the time, but perhaps I was wrong about putting you with the town, OTM.

I think flea is our best bet for a lynch today. string was scummy, and flea hasn't added anything to change that opinion.

vote:somestrangeflea

[gorckat]

Being sure of things based on sketchiness is scummy to you. Is probing and not being sure scummy as well?

If so, what is not scummy, then?

[gorckat]

What if I ask a probing question (such as why'd you avoid a question, or why'd pj distinguish between 2 and 3 scum) and it gets answered to my satisfaction? Do I have to enumerate that each time?

In a quick skim of my Day 2 posts, I see a lot of opinions.

[gorckat]

But you have voted me, and keep insinuating that I could, maybe, possibly be scummy, although I could, possibly, maybe be town as well. I guess I'm sort-of calling pot/kettle here.

I need to re-read pj's case and driectly repsond to that since he

is

voting.

[gorckat]

Addressing pj's 766:

1) I did have far fewer posts than thorgot then (2 vs 5 or 6). I was offline, since a lot of my posting is done from work, which was out of service for 7 or 8 days, and I'd had a lot going on at home. I'd have to look to see why string chose thorgot- I think because thorgot was posting and someone called him on pressuring apparently flaked players.

2) iirc, the game was very slow, and the preceding post lays out the joke logic I was working with: third longest lurker was obv scum. Correcting for InHim, pete d should've been my target, not string.

3) It looks like OTM had already expressed suspicion of kilm, string found her scummy, and I had a direct question ignored. Also note that I unvoted kilm to vote thorgot per #2.

5) touched on in 3, it looks like. You completely misrepresent my post,

LOL

. I laid out why thorgot/OTM was at the top with kilm. Also see post 560 where I specifiy what I felt were the strongest points against InHim.

(How do you do that direct link to a post thing? Is it a URL hack?)

Since you linked directly to the posts, I don't think you were deliberately trying to misrepresent things, but all the points you bring up have been addressed in-game.

@pie: Did you ever read those links you asked me for?

[gorckat]

re: Gorc's previous games

Yes, I did, and I don't think they're in your favor.

Also, I'm finding something a bit off about how Gorc keeps asking me if I've read his games... I can't decide if it's scummy or not yet, but I'm posting this for later reference.

Home from vacation. Responding to this since it's sort of directed at me.

I kept asking because you asked OTM and myself for them (as I've said). You mentioned how his helped you form an opinion of his play. If anything (specific) I'd done in one of those games shades your opinion here, I'd be curious what and why, if only to respond to it.

More when I finish re-reading.

[gorckat]

Noting for OMGUS and possible irony if I get lynched (in part) for my vote-hopping on Day 1 :

3) I am a townie who purposely moves his vote around in order to get reactions and figure out who is who. I reanalyze the bandwagon constantly instead of sticking with my gut feeling.

I think Dasq makes good sense here (taken a bit out of context- the whole post responds to OTM, iirc, and presents a couple scenarios):

...and actually the ssf bandwagon picked up speed due to its merits as a correct bandwagon... a scum looking scummy and getting bandwagonned for it has got to happen some of the time, right?

The quacking, flapping, swimming thing that sounds, looks and moves like a duck could just very well

be

a duck.

flea hasn't done anything to make me feel like I'm in the wrong place. OTM has re-raised my eyebrow with his recent comments.

[gorckat]

vote: OTM

Both times he voted me, he does it as an "experiment" or to see "where this goes". The first time he was convinced he was wrong and shot over to flea (then string). I do not see it as impossible to be bussing- if string bailed on him, he's got to cut his losses (I was in a similar spot Newb 310 until MoS replaced Seol.)

[gorckat]

Scum can do great pro-town analysis too, ya know. Especially when townies legitimately look scummy.

Then it follows that they can bus a partner via analysis when it suits their own survival, especially when the partner is scummy looking.

Funny how that second, experimental vote on me was done while I was out of town (granted- I had hoped to post while away).

[gorckat]

I still think he's good for scum. Just with you now.

Why wouldn't scum say exactly what flea did?

What's the difference between that and you saying 'gorc and pete are scum' (not a dircet quote, but very close I'm sure, without going back to quote something specific)? He has a problem with Das looking for pairings that make sense given he hasn't been hammered, but you can do it yourself?

[gorckat]

He has a problem with Das looking for pairings that make sense given he hasn't been hammered, but you can do it yourself?

Yep.

Yah. Hypocrite is I.

[gorckat]

Das- I'm more than willing to be the hammer on flea. I think OTM is just as good a candidate.

[gorckat]

I was skimming back to see if OTMs earleir actions towards string exclude bussing. I didn't see anything in his posts alone, and looked back to the mass-claim talk. string had claimed and flaked. It was a week before OTM's PBPA, and he could have decided he'd be better off clearing himself as much as possible.

I've never been clear on the whole "benefits of a massclaim" idea... this is only my 4th game. Can someone break it down for me?

Won't mafia simply all claim townie? How does that help us?

Sometimes the roles have something in common or some sort of flavor, or something that will help us know the claim is true, and usually scum, well not usually, but sometimes, scum will claim power role and take a chance, and then there could be a counter,

with three deaths last night, we know we have killing scum, prolly vig, and prolly a sk.

So it will narrow it down quite a bit.

Is it just me, or does anyone else see something wrong with the bold?

[gorckat]

Oops- you're right. I thought that was after her claim and it jumped out at me. Didn't think to actually read her posts alone to make sure :/

[gorckat]

vote:somestrangeflea

Agreed. flea is still the scummier than OTM.

[gorckat]

Agreement =/= Scum

[gorckat]

It's like he's asking someone else to make his case for him.

Not at all. As I read it, it looked like kilm saying she wasn't a vig. That seemed really weird since no one else had called her on it, and as was pointed out, the timing of that was before her claim.

Assuming myself, kilmenator and gorckat all to be town (or at least, non-mafia), and OTM and PJ to be most likely townies from the rest of the group, my suspected mafia is by logical conclusion ssf, pete d and pie. I'm happy with that.

Given how quiet they've been, it makes sense. Without people putting themselves on the line pushing a mislynch, there's no oppotunity to catch them.

[gorckat]

FWIW, his defense was 'apathy'.

[gorckat]

From my gut, there are two likely scum groups:

Das, PJ and pete or flea, OTM and pie. Yes, the second has a dash of OMGUS. Whatever. They're not in order of likelihood, and both have a flex spot in them I could swap with another person.

I think Das and PJ have been good townies. PJ especially put in a load of work reading up for us. That makes me lean towards my second grouping and maintain lynching flea is a good idea.

This my gut and I couldn't put anything concrete in a post to explain it better than that.

Discuss.

[gorckat]

Paranoid disclaimer: you might be scum deliberately presenting two alternatives each containing some scum-buddies for various nefarious outcomes.

MWUHAHAHno.

Re: OTM. He

has

given up. Let's look back to post 729:

Reread blah blah post later etc... You know the drill.

That was Aug 10, one day shy of a month ago, and I'm still waiting for any kind of "I'm here, I know what I'm doing now, and here's what I think of everything" post. You're right, it doesn't make him scum, but it doesn't make him town either and superstring was already well on his way to the noose when flea replaced him. The only reason the pressure let up was to give him breathing room to join the game, which he's willfully chosen not to use.

I did a little reading of flea in a few other games about a week ago. He does seem consistent with the 'I'm in the game now, so that's when I start playing' attitutde (both when he replaces and when other's replace in). He did post a total summary of opinions as a scum replacement in Mini 425 (or is this 425? If so, 433). I don't recall if he has replaced as town in another deep game needing such a synopsis.

However, his refusal to post such a summary here (even so much as saying whether he bought Dodgy's claim, CES' non-claim, MBL's refusal to claim, or anything else) is very frustrating and ignores that WE aren't just starting.

[gorckat]

I'd seen someone use the term 'False Dilemma' in another game, but they didn't explain it and I hadn't had a chance to wiki it. Thank you for the breakdown.

Basically, those are just my gut feelings- If A, then B and maybe C, or 1, then 2 and probably 3. Its like a fork in the road. Either direction is equally likely to get me where I want to go, but the road to the left triggers a more emotional response and looks more enjoyable.

Some of the players just don't strike me as being scum together.

[gorckat]

Damn- shoulda previewed (missed PJ's second post).

Maybe I should've also listed my SK 'group': pete, flea and pie. If pete's the SK, I'd slide pie into his place with Das and PJ, but that doesn't feel as 'organic' as Das, pj, pete. If flea or pie were the SK, pj would take his place in that group.

Based on how felt people have been interacting, I lean towards the pie, OTM, flea grouping.

[gorckat]

As for reasoning- mostly based on who's posting, who's defended who, who's supported who. I haven't gone back and re-read to get the groupings. They've been rolling around in my head for awhile, and include some Notes from two or more months ago I forgot I made.

I concede the method is a little illogical (since the notes were impressions/thoughts based on little hard evidence).

[gorckat]

I did a little reading of flea in a few other games about a week ago. He does seem consistent with the 'I'm in the game now, so that's when I start playing' attitutde (both when he replaces and when other's replace in).

And, should I die, my death will help the case that metagaming rarely works...

I was saying you were playing in a consistent manner to other games as and with replacements. I wasn't metagaming you for a tell; I was sharing an observation that anyone can make. I think it helps to understand your attitude towards this game.

Do you have any other thoughts on Day 1, or at least Day 2?

[gorckat]

It is scummy.

Your best guess is that the three of us are scum, but you want me to go first and you refused Das on a pete lynch. Does that hit too close to the idea that you argued against earlier- that at one point you were bussing your partner?

Also- your position that losing Das hurts more than losing me is illogical. If you think the three of us are scum, letting the bright one live ain't much gud sens, y'know?

[gorckat]

It is scummy.

Your best guess is that the three of us are scum, but you want me to go first and

you refused Das on a pete lynch

.

Whoah, that is not AT ALL what happened. *WHOOP WHOOP* scum alert, people! Das mentioned that he maybe thought Pete could be scum. I offered

to Dasq

that I would support a Pete D lynch and then

Dasq refused

. You twisted the whole thing around to try to make it look like I was the one acting scummy instead of Dasq! I can't believe we haven't lynched you already.

Not intentional in the least. Honest mistake, since I didn't go back to quote the actual posts. It was off the top of my head.

For you second point, I maintain my position. If you think Das is dangerous as scum, you'd lynch him. If Das isn't scum, who do you think is?

[gorckat]

Dasq's question rephrased:

Are you sure you wouldn't rather vote with the scum and finish off ssf?

My answer: Heck yeah I'm sure!

Vote gorckat, people.

From my point of view, you're doing the same thing directed towards me. We can play back and forth all day like that.

Das is right- we need to end this ourselves.

[gorckat]

For you second point, I maintain my position. If you think Das is dangerous as scum, you'd lynch him. If Das isn't scum, who do you think is?

[gorckat]

Interesting, since prior to replacement, Nanook had just said I was the top suspect and pj's first vote, once he'd settled in and re-read twice, was to vote me.

At the point pj came in, iirc, a string lynch was more likely than lynching me. Same for Nanook- only pie, if anyone, had voted me when he suspected me.

[gorckat]

EBWOP- "just before replacement" is a bit of a misnomer. "The last thing Nanook said" is better.

[gorckat]

I think you're unreasonably married to your "suspicions", to be brief.

Your characterization of how much scummier Das is than pj and pie makes it sound like pete and I must be the second coming of Stalin and Hitler (I mean- you want me to go first and have bargained for a pete lynch and Das is the dangerous one). If so, how come pete has gotten so little suspicion?

[gorckat]

(

Stalin and Hitler - LOL too funny.

I hope that's not sarcastic I

was

trying to be light-hearted with that.)

The reason I ask is because: I think you are too married to your suspicions. Yes- I want enmity between you and townies because...I think you're scum with flea! Why make peace?

I'll address defending Das later- wife got home and I gotta cook (yes-

I

'm the house bitch, no offense ladies )

[gorckat]

Got a minute now

Defending Das is tangential to thinking you and flea are scum. Its a byproduct of my suspicions.

He very well could be the third scum, but that is less likely than either pie or pj, or maybe even pete.

[gorckat]

And OTM- you didn't answer one of mine

If so, how come pete has gotten so little suspicion?

[gorckat]

Pete has had plenty of suspicion, Gorckat, wtf are you talking about?

Aside from you, Das had him as possible scum (haven't looked at his exact words- I think he has him as #2 after flea). No one else off the top of my head has voted him or even made a case.

The very fact that it's taken so long for ANYONE to climb on board the gorckat wagon makes me very convinced that he is indeed scum. If he were a townie, scum would have piled on by now. But since I voted, no one else has piled on. Town is being careful, and rightfully so.

Huh. Replace gorc with flea and that makes sense, too.

string/flea has been at 3 for ages. pj was on me, but pulled off once you voted (iirc- I know his vote wasn't counted on one of the vote counts). Was he distancing from me there? Oh, wait- you don't suspect him.

What odd phrasing. Totally scummy. Poor attempt at distancing there.

Because it wasn't. You don't tell someone who sits down with a PB&J sandwich that they FUBARed their ham sandwich, too, do you?

It was a distinction between my thoughts that Das is least likely scum with you and flea, followed by pete, then pj and pie. I'm pretty sure I said as much when I was laying out my possible scum splits.

[gorckat]

Its exactly the same!

You say I'm scum, I say flea's scum
You say I haven't been lynched, I say flea hasn't been lynched
Therefore, you say I'm scum, therefore I say flea's scum

[gorckat]

Thirded.

[gorckat]

I think you're unreasonably married to your "suspicions", to be brief.

Yah- never used quotes to indicate I think they're bogus. Oops.

</sarcastic animosity>

[gorckat]

There was at least one obvious trend common to this game and his scum game that wasn't in his town game.

Should read games, assuming you read all the links I provided. I think at that time there were two of each. I think I have another townie game (mini 425)for your review, to see if that trend shows up again. (I'd be curious to know what the trend is, after this game [I assume you're holding it close to the vest atm] of course)

More later. I was just popping into the PC room for a book.

[gorckat]

Please explain why you chose the particular groupings that you did.

Das, PJ and pete or flea, OTM and pie. Yes, the second has a dash of OMGUS. Whatever. They're not in order of likelihood, and both have a flex spot in them I could swap with another person.

My 'reasons' are spread out among several posts:

This my gut and I couldn't put anything concrete in a post to explain it better than that.

(By concrete, I meant "Look at post x, y and z- tada!")

Some of the players just don't strike me as being scum together.

(OTM and Dasq, pete and OTM, flea and pete, flea and Dasq. Typical disclaimer that I could've been snowed by distancing attempts.)

Based on how felt people have been interacting

, I lean towards the pie, OTM, flea grouping.

(More affirmation of gut feelings/intuition)

I admit OTM's (and your) insistence on me as scum has drawn a bit of a line in the sand for me.

pj did a fair bit of work making his case for me, to which I responded (well, imho). iirc, his vote came off when OTM U-Turned on me (from flea/string) and hasn't come back on since, even though things are stalled and no one active has expressed a willingness to hammer me. That seems like reasonable townie caution.

OTM has latched on to his 'pattern' of me and pete. I know I'm not scum, so his saying pete and I are scum together is wrong; I admit to giving pete a bit more of a pass than might be due him. OTM's refused to be convinced that I'm not scum. I leave the door open to the chance flea is and he isn't (<10% in my mind).

I address the primary suspicion you've had of me in a few moments.

Given the divide in the debate and way people have gone at the other side is why I put pete and Das in a possible group together. They haven't outright defended me, but have gone after OTM's arguments. They could be scum together, but I think it more likely that flea and OTM are.

...why gorkcat said what he did.

Partly boredom. Things were going in circles, with those lines drawn, so I threw my thoughts out there. It did seem to get people talking, somewhat.

re: Gorc

I'm still

pretty sure

he's scum.

Most

of his hypotheticals have

almost

a forced feeling about them, like he sat down and said "I need to contribute something to look innocent" rather than genuinely giving his opinions.

Would you like some syrup for your waffles? Color me stubborn or call it OMGUS, but that seems like too many qualifiers and is weaker than an earlier statement of the same thing.

Anything concrete to support your vote? 50 'forced' posts since August 4th doesn't seem like much.

[gorckat]

Never said it was

[gorckat]

Real quick, just passing through again

@Problem 1: Can Occam's razor be applied here? I'm not sure this is a case of the fewest things to make something true (I know I'm phrasing that badly, but I think I'm getting the gist across), but it seems that the simplest way to look at the game is: these people on this side, these on that and build from there.

@Problem 2: Sure- I know I'm town and given I've been fairly active (for this game's standards, at least), any rope to hang me with should be out there. The only people running with it now are 2 people I think are scum. (Again qualifying that pj hasn't said where he stands since things stalled after his unvote).

Do you believe this is scummy? If so, why?

Not normally. I think if he was town, the refusal for others to get on board would give him pause.

I've probably never been more than 50% sure of someone as scum in my career.

I'm nowhere near sure that you're scum, but I'm pretty sure you're the town's best bet.

Am I a better choice than a dice decided vote right now? Assuming kilm is cleared and you left yourself out, the dice would have ~17% chance of picking me. Are you at 25%? 40%? How much more certain of me than a random vote are you?

Maybe the broadcasting of the percentage was a poor choice, and maybe I've skewed it too high, but what I wanted to convey was the slim chance I think he has of being town.

[gorckat]

How about a scum list instead of groupings?

<scummy>
flea
OTM
<slightly scummy>
pie
<nuetral>
pete
<seems town>
Das
pj
<cleared due to lack of counter claim>
kilm

Breaking the list out this way, it does seem to allow more room for error. I concede the weakness of my groups. I stand by my opinions on who's scummy.

[gorckat]

@pete: This line:

Scum may begin enjoying their last week of the game.

Doesn't sit well- the last person I saw say that replacing into a game was scum. (Very minor point)

Its been mostly of a gut feeling. He's been voting me for ages and hasn't seemed very convicted.

Recently:

I'm getting the feeling that OTM (correctly, imho) suspected Gorkcat for Macro reasons, then got stuck at a point where

he was so sure of Gorkcat's guilt (correctly, imho)

that he read every little thing Gork said as scummy.

I've probably never been more than 50% sure of someone as scum in my career.

I dunno, it's hard to put a number on these things. I'll put you at 40%. You are a much, much safer bet than the dice (obviously, or I'd be voting someone else).

He says OTM is correct to be certain I'm scum, but can't be certain himself. Hedging, again.

@pie: The trend you said was in my "scum game"...was it in

both

games I was scum? Was it in any of my games as town?

[gorckat]

^Infinitied.

[gorckat]

Not "pete or gorckat"? I thought he was scum, too, given the way he and I were following each other?

[gorckat]

Isn't Dasq the smart one you want to keep alive in case he's town?

[gorckat]

Isn't Dasq the smart one you want to keep alive in case he's town?

You sound like you're mocking me. Stop.

Hardly mocking. Pointing out more hypocrisy.

You're the one that said Dasq should be kept around in case he's town. IIRC, you'd go after him if I and/or pete were scum. Now you're offering him up to the SK.

So Gorck, how do you feel about ssf most likely being a townie after all? Your analysis of how you see things NOW should be entertaining, at the very least.

How I see things depends on who goes down tonight. If I was way off on my groups, then it'll probably show in the morning's body count. Your reversal and phantom connection between me and pete still has you looking good in my eyes.

[gorckat]

Maybe. I have no idea how flea's and any dead people's roles will skew me.

[gorckat]

Looks like I closed my browser before I submitted my answer yesterday.

I admit I could be wrong. I have not previously because there is no connection between me and pete or Dasq. It is

far

easier for me to see you as scum given your insistence that there is.

I truly believed flea was scum (assuming he's not, since we still don't have the role reveal). I truly believed you were bussing string and only backed off because flea contributed a little bit.

If you two are both town, does that make me an idiot? Perhaps. Scum? Nope.

[gorckat]

Depends on who dies.

Are you asking so you can kill them and lynch me tomorrow?

[gorckat]

And why, exactly, would no one die? It's completely irrational to assume no one is going to die when 3 people died last night. Speculation like that is worse than none, imho.

You continuing to ask the SK to kill me hurts the town and helps the scum. Assuming you've convinced the SK to kill me, the scum can go off and kill someone else and, presumably, win on the spot.

[gorckat]

And thered'd still be no Day 3- no way the scum vote themselves. If it's a 2-person scum team, then 2-2-1 is still winnable.

Your rambling does make a case for you being town. If you were scum, you'd be sitting back and waiting to NK for the win, or at least getting ready to head into a favorable endgame.

If flea's town, the fact you won't shut up helps you, somewhat.

Since I'm on the brink of starting to post like an asshole, I'm done until dawn. Good night.

[gorckat]

That was quite a surprise.

So perhaps kilm was lying when she said one shot?

[gorckat]

Or they could've just cross killed, I guess. Is that info the mod will share with non-killing roles: are kills blocked if someone killed the killer first or are all night actions simultaneous?

[gorckat]

OTM: Like I said in twilight, it made no sense for scum to keep talking (my apologies, as I was a bit of a dick about it all).

If I assume you are town because of it, cpe is town as an uncounterclaimed vig, that leaves pie and pj as scum.

Psuedo: pj

[gorckat]

Unless he was setting up a bogus pairing that cpe or the other townie would buy easily.

I've seen it done elsewhere, and it is admittedly a totally WIFOM defense to a WIFOM linking.

[gorckat]

1) Because OTM thinks you are scum. I simply went for the common suspect between us.

2) <shrug> I guess because to me its obvious and I don't feel I need to shout and jump up and down at this point. Everyone's staying cool and psuedoing atm. If there were real votes out there, I'd be a bit more jumpy.

You OTM/pie idea makes sense, too, although it conflicts with my ideas about OTM's chatter.

[gorckat]

Well I can't psuedo myself (his other psuedo).

[gorckat]

I think the twilight banter is the most "tell"ing (:P)

If either one of us were scum, we'd have shut our mouth and let the other one bitch up a storm. Instead, we kept arguing.

Its mostly intuition/gut.

[gorckat]

-> And gorkcat, my question is largely: why did you not pseudovote both Pie and me, but instead chose to pseudovote solely me?

I pseudo'd like a real vote- I can only have one.


@pie: Are you saying there's some kind of proof that you and pj aren't scum together?

[gorckat]

I want to see if pie can show how he and pj aren't scum together. I get the gorc/OTM aren't bit (our interactions would get an Emmy for distancing), but I don't see how it still couldn't be pie and pj together.

Yes, it is another 'elaborate' bussing possibility- if pie 'proves' its not him and pj, he goes to 2-1 only needing to vote the unconfirmed player remaining (assuming cpe is still around).

[gorckat]

Well, so much for that cross post. Back shortly as I digest.

[gorckat]

pj- as town, my job today is to lynch

one scum

. If I cleared OTM, it obviously is you and pie, and since he was willing to vote you, of course I go that way.

What's got me hesitant is the Mexican standoff we have now of people voting (or willing to vote) the other guy in their group (pie/pj and gorc/OTM)

cpe and OTM- don't vote. If only one of these two is scum (ie, they're

not

bussing/gambiting to a 2-1 endgame) then we need to play it slow.

[gorckat]

How come when Day 3 started, 3 people listed me as a top suspect (cpe, pie and OTM)? That doesn't make sense...I mean- I get it in the sense OTM was bulldogging me Day 2 and pie had his vote on me for ages...

But that would leave pj as my partner, which

doesn't

make sense given he seems to think its me and pie right now. If pj were my partner, it would make more sense for him to push pie/OTM, wouldn't it? (Caveat for my earlier bussing/gambit speculations).

If

I

had been lynched, that would have left pete looking pretty good since he'd been tied to me most of the day by OTM, and pie would have been able to point to a long history of suspecting me. OTM might have been in a bit of a bind, but if flea was around, he could've been right back on the hook.

Anyway...yes, if I'm scum with pie it makes sense that I go after pj, but not that pie comes out of the gate pseudo-ing me.

If OTM/pie are scum, it makes sense that they come after me. I get pj's vote towards pie- gorc/OTM is as unlikely as cpe/anyone being scum, and if someone could show me how pie/pj is equally unlikely, then I'd be voting OTM.

I'm not sure how coherent this is, but I think it

is

pie/OTM.

[gorckat]

It was a bit stream of conscious, but nice flip, OTM...as soon as I strongly speculate that pj is not scum, you bail the idea of lynching him and go for the mutual target between you, pj and pie.

Its the same thing pj accused me of by targeting him, only you're not psuedoing.

Don't care what ideas the confirmed townie might have?

I'd really like pie and pj to give e some meat why they can't be partners together.

[gorckat]

If you think we're both scum together, you should be comfortable voting for either of us. It's a bit difficult to "defend" against a relationship that does not exist, but I would say the fact we're currently

voting each other

is a strong indicator.

Also, if we were scum together the two of us could win right now by quicklynching you, which you don't seem overly concerned about at the moment.

A quicklynch would be the first fast thing in this game and would quite catch me off guard. If pie and OTM are scum, they'd have to get you or cpe to move with them, and I don't think (hope) either of you would do so quickly.

Voting each other is a point in favor of not being scum together...

[gorckat]

cpe, that's game if the other scum gets on me :/

</appeal to emotion>

@pj:

Gorckat
1.) Knows {Pie + PJ} cannot be scum
2.) Therefore {OTM + Pie} or {OTM + PJ} is scum
3.) Therefore vote OTM

I've been there, but for the remaining worry that you and pie are scum together.

[gorckat]

re: Gorc's [Pie/OTM] prediction

Uh, you can't really accuse me of coming out of the gate against you day 3. I've been attacking you since early day 2. Nothing happened that would change that.

I acknowledged that you have been on me since Day 2. I was referring to it more in the sense of you and I couldn't be partners.

[gorckat]

Fuck it. OTM has to be scum and unless he or cpe pulls back, we're toast.

vote: OTM

[gorckat]

Helluva cross. pie+OTM it is, then.

[gorckat]

I've been shifting all day, OTM. You really shouldn't be surprised.

[gorckat]

Of course I don't expect you to pull back.

It was simply an obvious statement that if you or cpe don't pull off then the other scum (pie, since pj didn't) will hammer and we lose.

There's no reason for you to pull back, but if you did, then the game'd go on a bit longer.

[gorckat]

I find it interesting that you are not ending it, PJ. Pie has no votes, Gorckat is at lynch -1. You said you have no preference. Put your money where your mouth is.

Mustard's getting thick, there, isn't it? I thought townies had to be cautious?

[gorckat]

Ah, shit.

Go town.

[gorckat]

Good game.

OTM and pie- I could have played better and avoided all your suspicions, so no apologies needed

@pie- you mentioned some tell you thought I was making? What was it?