13p Normal [TM2015]

[Trojan Horse]

Yeah, no lynch is probably the best move. But let's see what Sthar and Delta have to say.

[Trojan Horse]

Scum kills someone tonight, and then there's one fewer suspect to choose from.

If we had a player that was obvtown, then a no lynch would be pointless; scum would just shoot that player, and we'd be no better off. But I don't think anyone still alive is obvtown. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

[Trojan Horse]

Prod dodge. I guess there's not much to talk about right now...

[Trojan Horse]

Well then.

Before I do anything else, let me ask: Sthar and Egg, do either of you want to claim a power role at this point?

[Trojan Horse]

So sthar isn't claiming a power role. Excellent. That means Delta is town.

Full disclosure: after we did the massclaim, Oversoul told me that he suspected we had a power role who lied. He told me not to reveal this suspicion to the group, so I didn't. I've been waiting waiting waiting for someone to finally come forward. This wait has not been easy.

In case there is any doubt about Delta being town: I've looked up all the mini games that Nexus has modded over the past few years. All of them had at least 3 protown power roles. So what are the odds that we would only get 2 protown power roles for this game, where one of them is a weak Bodyguard? Forget it. Delta is town.

Unless we can all agree on who to lynch.

There is literally no reason to do this. On the .0000000001% chance you're faking, we should still be no lynching today.

If I was a little more confident in my scumhunting abilities, I would agree with you. But I don't think I could handle the responsibility of casting the game-deciding vote. I want Delta to help me figure out who the last scum is. I think I want to lynch someone NOW, rather than waiting until tomorrow.

[Trojan Horse]

By the way:

N1: Tracked Jason to Pie

N2: Tracked Sthar to nowhere
N3: Tracked Boon but was roleblocked (thanks STD)

N4: Tracked Zachrules to Pie (Hate on me all you want for tracking this but I thought he could be scum after the STD incident)

N5: Tracked Trojan Horse to nowhere

I'm going to hate on you for tracking Zach night 4, because you'd already cleared him.

When Day 4 dawned, we already knew that the one remaining scum had made both of the nightkills. Thor didn't make any nightkills, because we lynched him day 1. Mala didn't make any nightkills, because STD blocked her night 1, and we lynched her day 2. (STD was dead at that point, so we knew he told the truth about blocking Mala.) So it must have been the 3rd scum that made the nightkills. The kill on night 1 was fen... but you tracked Jason to pie that night. So you should've known that Jason was town.

Bleh.

[Trojan Horse]

Sthar:

I'm trying to figure out why scum would leave STD alive if they had correctly figured out he was the RB on D2. given jason was a bogyguard and thus would (or rather, *should*) protect STD, I really do not think it would be worth it to no kill in that situation as opposed to shooting STD immediately - in other scenarios, it'd be worth it, but not when it'd get protected, I don't think. I'm not sure about this, though.

This.

UNLESS (tinfoil hat time) somebody decided to go all-in and gamble on outguessing jason

and

getting him lynched. I don't even want to think about the odds on that one, but it explains all the scum actions pointing to a high EV play. That makes me interested in the jason wagon, but I'm having a hard time reviewing the wagon movement since it apparently happened entirely between votecounts.

sthar, I can trust you, right? >.>

No? No shortcuts this game, you need to look at my play and decide if it's town or not. I'm a little disconcerted that nobody in thread is wondering why

I was looking for town power roles.

I

think it should be obvious, but apparently nobody else was doing it, so...

Egg may not care about this anymore, but I still do. Please clarify. Why were you "looking for town power roles"?

[Trojan Horse]

Was it ever confirmed by STD that he blocked Mala on N1?

Yep:

The BCS for scum no killing is that jason is scum. I really don't think jason is scum.

If Jason isn't scum, he can save the RB one more night, and scum either can try to kill jason, the RB, someone else, or try to no kill again. There are 10 players alive. No killing just means they have to get even more mislynches. They're going to lose anyway.

No kill doesn't even guarantee that the rb didn't hit scum anyway.

There is also the possibility of a town BP out there but probably unlikely?

Anyway, I'm the RB.

Night 1: Malakittens
Night 2: Bins

I think we should lynch Bins today.

I'm really feeling sthar as the last scum.

Me too. And so is Tammy. In fact, she started scumreading sthar a while ago, and her read hasn't wavered, even as my scumreads have been jumping all over the place. The one thing that makes me hesitate is that sthar voted Thor with four days left in day 1, and at the time, Thor didn't seem to be in too much danger. Still, I've seen scum do weirder things than that. (For instance, a scum dayvigged a scummate during the last Team Mafia.)

I'm going to do some rereading, but part of me just wants to lynch sthar and be done with it.

[Trojan Horse]

So the current thought between you two is that I hardbussed one partner day 1, then let the other go down without a fight on day 2, then killed the only person with a solid townread on me heading into MYLO.

Seems solid.

No, my current thought is that you hardbussed one partner day 1, then fought to protect the other partner by going hard after Delta on day 2, then killed the only obvtown player heading into MYLO. The first part is admittedly weak, the second is solid IMO, and the third is a total null tell.

If I was a little more confident in my scumhunting abilities, I would agree with you. But I don't think I could handle the responsibility of casting the game-deciding vote. I want Delta to help me figure out who the last scum is. I think I want to lynch someone NOW, rather than waiting until tomorrow.

Do not lie to yourself here. You are the game deciding vote. Nobody gets lynched unless you're OK with it. Trust DW, work with him, figure it out. But it comes down to you, and for you to blindly sheep the other town to a loss in MYLO is just as much your fault as if you pick wrong. Get your head in the game and play; this is what you signed up for.

I'm not sheeping anyone. If Delta had said he was leaning towards lynching Egg, I would have contradicted him, and hopefully we could've come to a decision together. But it looks like we are agreeing with each other here.

[Trojan Horse]

Delta was also obvtown heading into today. You were pretty obvtown too.

What? Me obvtown, after my idiotic rant against Delta yesterday? No way.

Besides, if you had looked at my voting patterns from earlier in the game, you might come to the conclusion that I am scum. I didn't vote for Thor until there was no other option for me, and I spent a lot of time saying "I think Mala is scum" while voting for Vyse during day 2.

Had Delta not cleared me, I wouldn't have been surprised at all if I was the final mislynch.

[Trojan Horse]

Eh. I don't want to go too far down this rabbit hole, because we need to focus on who the last scum is. Okay, maybe I wasn't super-scummy, but pie was WAY more townie than I was. Pie was the obvious nightkill choice, regardless of which one of us is scum. Total null tell.

Okay, we'll pick this up later, sthar.

[Trojan Horse]

then fought to protect the other partner by going hard after Delta on day 2,

Also what the fuck is this? I was pushing Egg day 2. Go fact check please.

Yeah, that's right. Maybe this post is a good representative of sthar's reads during day 2:

Sthar, you said at the beginning of the day that Delta was scum. You seemed very sure of it but haven't really commented on him since. Do you have a case against him? Are you still scum reading him. You also said you don't like the Mala wagon. Do you think she's town? Am I right in assuming you'd prefer a Delta lynch to a Mala lynch?

I have a stronger scumread.
I asked everyone how they felt about his ISO and nobody posted anything that pointed to him being town that I remember.
I would prefer Delta-lynch to mala-lynch if we decide to ignore the good lynch today.
I am not townreading mala. She's pretty null since she hasn't really done much, but also hasn't really been given room to do anything but react. But there's no reason to compromise on a null or lurker or proficiency lynch today when my scumreads are viable wagons.

[Trojan Horse]

sthar: I'm well aware that pie wanted to lynch Boon and Egg. But still, I have a hard time believing that you, as scum, would leave her alive.

Okay, let's say you shoot me, leaving pie alive. Then perhaps there's a no lynch. Then what? You kill Delta, and leave pie alive again? You've then put all your eggs in one basket; you know Egg isn't going to vote for pie, so you are hoping that pie doesn't change her read on Egg. (And she might well have changed her read, considering how surprised she would be to still be alive.)

I'm not buying it. You, as scum, would've preferred to be in the final 3 with Egg and either Delta or me. Then you would've had two people you could frame, instead of just one.

I still think the nightkill of pie is a null tell.

[Trojan Horse]

sthar: why did you choose to vote Boon yesterday, instead of Egg? That vote surprised me, considering you've suspected Egg all game.

[Trojan Horse]

Rereading Egg's and sthar's ISOs now. Still in day 1, but I'm not seeing anything scummy from either one yet.

Our last scum definitely played this game well, whoever it is.

[Trojan Horse]

I might end up wanting a no lynch after all. Tammy has been busy with dissertation stuff. I've asked her if she wants us to no lynch, so she has more time to figure things out. We'll see what she says.

I'm up to day 5 on the reread. Egg has looked more scummy so far, due to his interactions with Thor and Mala. But I know this is where Egg started saying "we need to lynch either Boon or me", which was an extremely bold move, if he is scum. So this reread is probably just going to leave me confused.

[Trojan Horse]

Done. And yep, I'm confused.

[Trojan Horse]

No lynch is still the best option because it gives TH and his team more time to figure it out.

Speaking of teams: any reads from your team, Delta?

[Trojan Horse]

If there was any thought left that I might be scum (perhaps I'm a Ninja, and thus can't be tracked), let me end those thoughts now. Notice I am not hammering. Hence, I am town.

I was too lazy to do a full reread over the weekend. I did reread Thor and Mala's ISOs. Put that together with Egg and sthar's ISOs (which I reread before we no-lynched), and I think I've come to a conclusion. But there are still some issues I want to hash out with my teammates. Plus, I might as well take the time to interrogate you guys, before I cast the deciding vote.

*puts game face on*

Okay, let's start simple. Egg and sthar, please tell me how your teams distributed the tokens for the side selection phase. How many tokens did each person take, and which side (town or scum) did each person put them on? I hope you won't mind answering this now, since all the other games are now complete.

[Trojan Horse]

By the way: I'm only going to ask a few questions to each of you guys. I won't stretch this all the way to deadline, unless I absolutely need to.

[Trojan Horse]

Eh. I might as well put up my second question, while we wait for Egg to show up.

Question #2: Obviously, Delta's roleclaim made it obvious to both of you who the final scum is. But right before Delta made his claim, who was your top scumpick? This question is primarily for Egg, since I'm pretty sure I know what sthar's answer is. But let's make it official.

That's the last of my small questions. The more important stuff is coming up next.

[Trojan Horse]

Okay. Now we get to the serious stuff.

For each of you, there was an event during the game that makes me think, "this guy is town. No way would he do this if he were scum." Of course, one of you IS scum, so I'm wrong about one of you. But which one? I think if I can get past this issue, I'll be able to vote with a lot more confidence.

Sthar, your most townie moment was during day 1, when you went after Thor. I know, there's such a thing as scum-bussing. But you did it at a moment when Thor did not seem to be in any jeopardy, and your vote (#3 on the bandwagon) was likely to put Thor in jeopardy. Plus, your tone of voice (or tone of typing?) REALLY feels townie to me. A sample:

Okay, so, I totally get that thor's ego killed the dinosaurs when he vacationed in Mexico, and he probably has some kind of socialization or empathy issue that often prevents him from understanding when he's being offensive, but still allows him to take offense when someone lashes back. That's all personality and not alignment related.

But there is a huge disconnect between

Players are dumb and play badly without it affecting their alignment.

and

I can't get over how derp and scummy that Save The Dragons post is.

"Is Ffrey reading?
Yes.
That's not very convincing!
...bwuh?

Like, what is the magical convincing it's supposed to generate? I didn't claim it supported or attacked anything, but he attacked it anyway after *asking* me to state it.
I don't think he's reading, I think he's just attacking.

And after STD made it clear how upset he was, Thor keeps calling him bad

in every post

. That's beyond the realm of incidental misunderstanding and well into the world of intentional. Thor wants STD upset and off balance... why? He's pulling fuel for his case out of STD's anger, but he agrees with me that being upset is a null tell.

If thor is town, then why does he need STD upset?

If that's scum bussing scum, I'm pretty impressed.

Egg, your most townie moment was during day 5, when it looked pretty certain that you and Boon were going to be the final two lynches. If you were scum in that situation, you should have been panicking; you should've been looking for someone to mislynch after we mislynch Boon. Thanks to my stupid rant against Delta, you had a golden opportunity to setup a final mislynch. And you didn't take it:

Three days left. We need to start coming to a consensus.

Sthar, who's your top scumpick now, and why?

Delta, same question.

(I think I know what you both are going to say, but I'll wait until you make it official.)

Just lynch Boon tomorrow. If I have to, I'll self vote to avoid no lynch so we aren't in the same spot tomorrow minus the NK.

We have two lynches left and we know who they are. If Pie or sthar is scum, bussing Thor was the winning move regardless. No point in dragging this out.

Trojan, don't do that with deadline coming. No lynch is inexcusable right now and Mala probably didn't hardbus Day 2 after losing a scumbuddy Day 1.

That's way more gutsy than I would be, if I were scum.

So that's what I'm dealing with right now. Maybe the one of you that's town (whoever that is) can help me see why I'm wrong about the one of you that's scum. (I'm also hoping to get help from my teammates on this, but they're busy.)

By the way: I do think one of you is more likely to be scum than the other. It's not like this particular issue will "break the tie" and determine who I'm going to vote for. I just want to be more confident about my choice.

[Trojan Horse]

If he didn't intend for Thor to be lynched, then he shouldn't have added that third vote. At that stage, Jason was likely to be the mislynch; sthar's vote GREATLY increased the chances that Thor would be lynched instead. If sthar is scum, he's bolder than I would be.

[Trojan Horse]

By the way: tomorrow is a big work day for me. My college has reserved a room for us professors who want to work on our research. I'm going to devote most of the day to that; I'll have to set the game aside while I do that.

But my Thursday is wide open. I'll try to make my final decision then.

[Trojan Horse]

If he didn't intend for Thor to be lynched, then he shouldn't have added that third vote. At that stage, Jason was likely to be the mislynch; sthar's vote GREATLY increased the chances that Thor would be lynched instead. If sthar is scum, he's bolder than I would be.

Ah. I'm just going from memory and guessing lol.

Actually, this made me doubt myself a little bit. Maybe I'm not remembering correctly? So I went back and looked it up.

Here's the relevant votecount (I'm removing the moderator's blue color to make it easier to read):

Votecount 1.11:

jasonT1981 (4)-

Thor665, Fenchurch, SleepyKrew, Trojan Horse

Boonskiies (3)-

jasonT1981, Egg, Save The Dragons

Thor665 (1)-

pieguyn,

Egg (1)-

sthar8

Save the Dragons (1)-

DeltaWave

Trojan Horse (1)-

Boonskiies

Not Voting (2)-

Malakittens, Micc,

The deadline is at 6pm on Tuesday 14th April 2015. Four days! With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Malakittens is v/la indefinitely

After this, STD switched to Thor. So it was 4 on Jason, 2 on Boon, and 2 on Thor... and that's when sthar switched to Thor. I had forgotten about the votes on Boon. So if this was a bus, this was REALLY putting Thor in unnecessary danger.

Sthar, I'm not Bookitty.

No, but this does show that the "me and X are the final two lynches" move isn't a superhuman move for scum to make. It might have been superhuman for ME, but my scum game is pretty horrible.

You know what? I don't want to have this game on my mind while I'm doing my long day at work. You guys have helped me settle things, and I've also gotten a bit of reassurance from my teammates. I really doubt my mind is going to change now; I'm just going to go for it. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

[Trojan Horse]

*takes a deep breath*

VOTE: Egg

[Trojan Horse]

By the way, Egg: there's something you should know.

Remember back at the end of day 1, when you hammered Thor at the last minute? There's one thing you didn't know: I was prepared to hammer myself, if necessary, to avoid a no lynch. I had my self-hammer post saved in my clipboard, all ready to go. When the clock ticked down to one minute left, I pasted my post from my clipboard, and I hit Preview over and over, waiting to see if someone would hammer Thor. With the minute almost gone, I thought, "okay, I'll click Preview one last time, then hammer myself." I clicked Preview, and THAT'S when your hammer vote showed up.

If you had waited five more seconds, I would've hammered myself... and this game would have gone VERY differently.